Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Yes, but, there is still a LOT of money on the sidelines, just waiting for the right opportunity to jump back in (this includes one or two members of this forum). Your money, your portfolio, your decision. Good luck and thanks for reading ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
I see Dow 3000 end of this growth cycle. the whole world is growing the same time. Don't know what's will kill this bull run. Not housing this time. Inflation could kill this bull market. If the inflation went up, Fed has to raise the interest. Another could be China bubble burst. The AI could improve the productivity and lead the next industry revolution. Many of the job now could be replaced by machine.
4/15/18 will be a non-event. Several reasons.
(1) Corporations pay estimated taxes every quarter. Any large, medium, or even small corporation has accountants who figure this out very closely. Tax refunds are few and small in the corporate world. Even as an employer of one person, I have to pay both estimated tax, and payroll tax quarterly. Payroll tax must be paid within 15 days of the end of the quarter or I am penalized. They graciously allow me until Jan 31 to actually file a return for 4Q 2017, but the tax must be paid in full by Jan 15. I just did a slightly too large electronic transfer on Jan 12. The overage will be applied to 2018 tax.
(2) Even if a corporation is due a refund, it does not get paid until they file for the year. The first opportunity to get a refund for 2018 taxes will be in early 2019.
Corporations have already started reacting to the new tax law, but it will take some time before the entire effect is felt, because there are many areas which need clarification.
OTOH, the withholding tables will change in mid February and employees will see a change in their withholding promptly after that.
My prediction is that the Dow will break 26,000 sometime during the week of Jan 14, 2018. Maybe even at Tuesday's open. Only the US celebrates MLK day, and foreign exchanges will be open on Monday.
only in the sense that we should stop talking about the Dow which is not really an important indicator of the stock market (for many reasons, see link below) other than it was the first index and therefore we keep talking about it:
https://www.google.com/search?q=the+dow ... fox-b-1-ab
why do we care about the Dow?It's been all over the news: The Dow is creeping up towards twenty thousand. It's been hovering just below that mark for weeks now. And people are kind of freaking out.
But here's the thing about the Dow: It doesn't matter.
It's no secret that we here at Planet Money think the Dow is a terrible economic indicator. We don't like that it only looks at thirty companies. We don't like the way it does its math. We think it does a bad job reflecting the overall economy. Honestly, we're not sure why everyone is still talking about it.
So, today, to contribute to the frenzy over Dow 20,000, we explain how the Dow is calculated—and why you should ignore it.
source: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... e-the-hype
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012 ... ut-the-dow
from 2013: the Dow didn't hit a record high like everyone thought...if you adjust for inflation:
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013 ... if-it-were
"Invest we must" | "By God, If John Q. Public doesn't get the word after two Swedroe books, two (Bill) Bernstein books, and four Bogle books, he (she) has only himself to blame!"