Hitting The Sell Button

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asif408
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by asif408 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:56 am

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:37 pm
The thing is, I don't honestly know my risk tolerance right now. Age 58, spotty employment, getting closer to winning the game. New factors in my risk profile that I haven't experienced before. Thus you can hear the voice of caution in my more recent posts. I have never been a near retiree before.
Good to hear perspective from someone approaching retirement. My view (as someone in their 30s) is that the more risky I invest now, the less risk I will have to take when I am older and start needing the money. So I plan to be fairly aggressive the next 10-20 years, with the hope that the aggressiveness will be rewarded and I can stop playing the game or at least start scaling back sooner than later. If things don't work out I guess I will just save more and/or work longer, but at least for now time is on my side and I can wait out bear markets.

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Leif
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by Leif » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:57 pm

You can almost hear the click, click, click of the roller coaster climbing up. I sold last week and of course my greed makes me regret that. But I know these things cannot be timed.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

Sandi_k
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by Sandi_k » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:05 pm

I sold $30k last week, and am moving to cash for $100k of my portfolio for now. That, in conjunction with a pension and two lump sum payments paying 7.5% and 8% in lieu of base-building merits, help me feel less exposed to volatility.

I also re-visited my IPS, and re-considered my AA going forward. The amount of reading I've done on glide paths and VWRs and SWRs and LMPs have convinced me that 80/20 is about right for me now.

McGilicutty
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by McGilicutty » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:25 pm

In my mid-40s and still about 97% stock here (the rest in cash). Recently joined the two-comma club and am enjoying the ride.

Buddtholomew
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by Buddtholomew » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:37 pm

Always too little in equities when markets rise and too little in fixed income when markets fall. If I’m unhappy under both circumstances perhaps I have the correct AA.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.

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nedsaid
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by nedsaid » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:45 pm

asif408 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:56 am
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:37 pm
The thing is, I don't honestly know my risk tolerance right now. Age 58, spotty employment, getting closer to winning the game. New factors in my risk profile that I haven't experienced before. Thus you can hear the voice of caution in my more recent posts. I have never been a near retiree before.
Good to hear perspective from someone approaching retirement. My view (as someone in their 30s) is that the more risky I invest now, the less risk I will have to take when I am older and start needing the money. So I plan to be fairly aggressive the next 10-20 years, with the hope that the aggressiveness will be rewarded and I can stop playing the game or at least start scaling back sooner than later. If things don't work out I guess I will just save more and/or work longer, but at least for now time is on my side and I can wait out bear markets.
I think you have a good plan. What I would advise is to allow flexibility in your thinking as the only constant seems to be change. Too often we think we can strategize things out twenty years in advance, having a plan is good but it isn't intended to be set in concrete.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by nedsaid » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:25 pm

By the way, I did another round of mild rebalancing from stocks to bonds today. Mainly I am trying to keep my risks in check.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Seekwhat
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by Seekwhat » Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:10 pm

Age and experience have increased my risk tolerance. Having been through ‘87 in my late 20s, then 2000-1, and 2008, I see that I lost no money. In all cases, I closed my eyes for a few years and found I’d made a lot of money. Dips and crashes are to be expected. I don’t much enjoy them, but enduring them is the price of benefitting from money in the market. I’m now 59, 70/30, and determined not to make the mistake that has cost me the most in my investing life: taking money off the table when the market is up, losing some of the upside ride, and not knowing when to get back in. For me, the less I do, the less I mess up.

michaeljc70
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by michaeljc70 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:56 pm

Seekwhat wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:10 pm
Age and experience have increased my risk tolerance. Having been through ‘87 in my late 20s, then 2000-1, and 2008, I see that I lost no money. In all cases, I closed my eyes for a few years and found I’d made a lot of money. Dips and crashes are to be expected. I don’t much enjoy them, but enduring them is the price of benefitting from money in the market. I’m now 59, 70/30, and determined not to make the mistake that has cost me the most in my investing life: taking money off the table when the market is up, losing some of the upside ride, and not knowing when to get back in. For me, the less I do, the less I mess up.
I agree. I am 75/25 and heading to 70/30 for retirement in a few years. I don't expect to ever go below 70% stocks. Based on simple math, the 30% bonds should get you through any stock downturn. And I will have no pension and retire 17 years before I can collect SS (full retirement age).

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cfs
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by cfs » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:16 pm

The less I do . . . I noticed that my portfolio did pretty good during those years when I was gone on my military deployments, incommunicado and unable to hit the sell button to "fix" my holdings. Good luck with your investments and thanks for reading / cfs
~ Your Money, Your Portfolio, Your Decision ~

eastwayroad
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by eastwayroad » Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:11 pm

66 yrs with a 50% equity AA that's inched up to 55% since 2015 retirement.
I just took advantage of the continued upswing by donating a good chunk of appreciated ETF shares into my Fidelity DAF.

Dottie57
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by Dottie57 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:25 pm

randomizer wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:17 am
Rebalancing with new contributions, I've been buying only bonds for the last couple of years ...

I've done the rebalancing with new contribs too. But also chaged AA as I realized my retirement date was sooner than I originally thought. No problems switching into bonds. I think it will be hard to actually spend retirement funds.

michaeljc70
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by michaeljc70 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:04 pm

Thought I'd add this I just came across:

"Why ditching stocks in this bull market is a ‘dangerous’ move"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-01-16

“The last two years of the bull markets are the best,” he said. “The minimum return of the last two years of the U.S. cycle is 30% minimum. So it’s very, very dangerous to be out of the market.”

"Higgins explained that looking at historic data, the median returns are even higher at 45%, indicating that traders courageous enough to hang on until the very end could scoop up possibly some of the strongest returns in the cycle."

TonyDAntonio
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Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Post by TonyDAntonio » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:12 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:04 pm
Thought I'd add this I just came across:

"Why ditching stocks in this bull market is a ‘dangerous’ move"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-01-16

“The last two years of the bull markets are the best,” he said. “The minimum return of the last two years of the U.S. cycle is 30% minimum. So it’s very, very dangerous to be out of the market.”

"Higgins explained that looking at historic data, the median returns are even higher at 45%, indicating that traders courageous enough to hang on until the very end could scoop up possibly some of the strongest returns in the cycle."
Report back the day before the end and I'll sell more.

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