Advice needed on my portfoilo

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t885
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Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:37 am

Emergency funds: Yes
Debt: None
Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly
Tax Rate: 24% Federal, 3,07% State
State of Residence:PA
Age:51
Desired Asset allocation: 80% stocks / 10% bonds
Desired International allocation: 10% of stocks

Current taxable investments
TD ameritrade- $56K mix of individual stocks $8k in cash
Financial planer-$50K mix of MM & mutual funds $28k in cash-Opened account Dec. 2017 before I found this website :confused
FIrst priorty bank stock- $42,000- Purchased in 2008 as an IPO at $10 share now at $9.20 (OTC)
VTSAX-$10K with $1000 monthly contribution( started December 17)
VTIAX-$10K (opened 1/5/18)


Non taxable-$65k
Compay 401K John Hancock -max contribution 3% match 3% profit sharing
Current allocation-22% bond, 52% S&P index fund ER .04, balance small cap ER .17
Current contribution- 75% S&P, 25% small cap
Roth IRA His- $6500 Started last year 100% MJX ( I know risky...FWIW up 14% since 12/26/17)
Hers IRA- 0%
Hers 401K-0%
Hers pension-$1400 month


Total portfolio +- $230K



Questions:
1. Where did my 40's go.....
During that time I lost my job changed my career twice (paid off my mortgage), put my wife through nursing school and then a masters program. Now I'm trying to play catch up as 62 is right around the corner.
My investment stratgey was that of trying to hit the perviable home run which inevitably was followed up with a loss of equal to or greater than the winner. End Result? zero sum game...
I started maxing out 40lK during the early part of 2017 and moved 1/2 of my TD account to a financial planner in October of last year...Then I found this website...

If it helps I would be more than willing to share the indvidual stocks in the TD account.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

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Watty
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by Watty » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:32 am

t885 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:37 am
Tax Rate: 24% Federal, 3,07% State
....
Hers 401K-0%
In your tax bracket and needing to build up your savings you should take a hard look at contributing more towards her 401k

If you can't afford to then you could increase her 401k payroll withholding by $1,000 a month and then spend abou $730 a month from the taxable account. The difference in the tax amounts is because of the tax savings.

With a paid off house and enough income to get into the 24% federal tax bracket you should be able to max out ALL your retirement accounts though without jumping through these hoops. If you can't easily do that then you should take a hard look at your spending.

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:56 am

My wife is a self employeed P.A. and is paid on a per deim rate (no witholdings quarterly taxes). Once the kids are in college in four years she will find a more traditional job with benifits, 40lk etc. Her current job allows her the flexibility to spend more time with the kids at school events.
I will look into setting up a self employed 401k.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:40 am

Anyone else care to comment?

John Hancock 401k holdings listed below

Vanguard small cap-VSGAX

John Hancock 500 index fund- JFIVX

John Hancock bond fund-JHBSX
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:08 am

t885 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:37 am
Age:51
Desired Asset allocation: 80% stocks / 10% bonds
Desired International allocation: 10% of stocks
Looks like you are considering a 90% stock,10% bond portfolio. I think that 90/10 is probably too aggressive. What are the thoughts behind picking this number?




Part of the reason you are getting no responses is that your portfolio is presented in a way that is not easy to understand. You need to present every holding as a percentage of your portfolio. I'll get you started....

Current taxable investments. $204k
$8k in cash
$56K mix of individual stocks
$50K mix of MM & mutual funds
$28k in cash
$42k Bank Stock (loss)
$10k VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock with $1000 monthly contribution( started December 17)
$10k VTIAX Vanguard Total International (opened 1/5/18)


Compay 401K $65k
52% S&P index fund ER .04,
balance small cap ER .17
22% bond

Roth IRA His-
$6500 MJX ( I know risky...FWIW up 14% since 12/26/17)


Total portfolio +- $230K It adds up to $275.5 for me. We can't go any further till this is cleared up.


Hers pension-$1400 month. <--assuming she is NOT getting the pension at this point?

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:36 pm

retiredjg wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:08 am
t885 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:37 am
Age:51
Desired Asset allocation: 80% stocks / 10% bonds
Desired International allocation: 10% of stocks
Looks like you are considering a 90% stock,10% bond portfolio. I think that 90/10 is probably too aggressive. What are the thoughts behind picking this number?

Trying to make up for lost time.




Part of the reason you are getting no responses is that your portfolio is presented in a way that is not easy to understand. You need to present every holding as a percentage of your portfolio. I'll get you started....

Current taxable investments. $170k[/u]
$8k in cash included with the 56K mix..$56k total 8k cash, 46K stocks
$56K mix of individual stocks
$50K mix of MM & mutual funds
$28k in cash included with the mix of mutual funds and MM...28k cash, 22k mm & mf
$42k Bank Stock (loss) 4600 shares of IPO at $10 shares now trading at $9.20
$10k VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock with $1000 monthly contribution( started December 17)
$10k VTIAX Vanguard Total International (opened 1/5/18)


Compay 401K $65k
52% S&P index fund ER .04,
balance small cap ER .17
22% bond

Roth IRA His-
$6500 MJX ( I know risky...FWIW up 14% since 12/26/17) Now up 19%


Total portfolio +- $230K It adds up to $275.5 for me. We can't go any further till this is cleared up.


Hers pension-$1400 month. <--assuming she is NOT getting the pension at this point? Correct
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:52 am

Well, I've tried a second time and still cannot figure out what you have. Sorry. :(

Please put in the dollar amounts for EVERY holding. I'm not interested in what you put in. I'm interested in what each holding is worth now.

Taxable at TDA $56k
$8k cash
individual stocks. <----I think the problem is here

Taxable at Planner $50k
money market
mutual funds
$28k cash

Taxable unknown location $42k
$42k bank stock (loss)


Taxable unknown location $20k
$10k Total Stock
$10k Total International

401k
500 Index
small cal
bonds

Roth IRA $6.5k
$6.5k MJX

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:06 am

t885 wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:36 pm
retiredjg wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:08 am
t885 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:37 am
Age:51
Desired Asset allocation: 80% stocks / 10% bonds
Desired International allocation: 10% of stocks
Looks like you are considering a 90% stock,10% bond portfolio. I think that 90/10 is probably too aggressive. What are the thoughts behind picking this number?
Trying to make up for lost time.
This is a double edged sword. Yes, growing your portfolio quickly would be nice, but you cannot afford the negative consequences if risk raises her ugly head. I'd reconsider.

At age 51, you no longer have the ability to invest this aggressively in my opinion. "Ability" refers (somewhat) to your portfolio's ability to bounce back after a crash. At your age, you now have less time for that to happen. You need to start focusing more on preserving what you have.

Yes, you want some growth, but taking a 90/10 risk is too much in my opinion. What are you going to do if a crash happens, your portfolio drops to $150k and you are suddenly and involuntarily retired?

You have already told us "My investment stratgey was that of trying to hit the perviable home run which inevitably was followed up with a loss of equal to or greater than the winner.....". Taking a 90/10 position at this point in life could very well be equal to making that mistake over again.

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Watty
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by Watty » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:52 am

retiredjg wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:06 am
At age 51, you no longer have the ability to invest this aggressively in my opinion. "Ability" refers (somewhat) to your portfolio's ability to bounce back after a crash. At your age, you now have less time for that to happen. You need to start focusing more on preserving what you have.
+1

In addition to the possibility of getting bad investing returns there is also the chance that you will not be able to work to 65+ because of health or career setbacks. I have seen lots of people in their 50's run into things like this.

The good news is that being in the 24% federal tax bracket implies that you have a combined income of maybe $200K a year or more, and you also seem to have a paid off house.

It might take some lifestyle changes but you should be able to save around $100K a year without too much trouble unless you have some large expenses, like costly health problems, that you did not mention. With a paid off house lots of people can live very well with incomes of $80K (or a lot less less) so you may need to live more like that.

pkcrafter
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by pkcrafter » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:59 am

t88, I was going to comment on your asset allocation too, but retiredjg has now covered it, so I'll just add a bit more explanation.

When choosing an asset allocation (AA), you need to assess need to take risk, ability, and willingness. In your situation, you do have a lot of need, but you don't have all that much ability. You hit some rough spots in your 40's, and 90% equity could possibly drop your portfolio value by 30-40%. You don't want that to happen at this point in your life. So, the best approach is a reasonable AA and a a big effort on increased savings. In looking at retirement needs, we use 25x your needed income from assets as the amount saved. SS and pensions help lower needed income from investments.

Max wife's IRA or Roth along with opening a small business plan.

https://investor.vanguard.com/what-we-o ... mpgn=PS:RE

How much are you paying the advisor? You might consider dropping him once you get up to speed on the Boglehead's philosophy. Create one portfolio using all available accounts.

Paul
Last edited by pkcrafter on Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:45 pm

retiredjg wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:52 am
Well, I've tried a second time and still cannot figure out what you have. Sorry. :(

Please put in the dollar amounts for EVERY holding. I'm not interested in what you put in. I'm interested in what each holding is worth now.

Taxable at TDA $56k
$8k cash
individual stocks. <----I think the problem is here

TD holding

CIF $5920
SCD $4185
TWMJF $16,715
ACBFF $19,960
NVAX $9872
Cash $7800

Total $64,452 Nice run up in the last week on TWMJF and NVAX

Taxable at Planner $50k
money market
mutual funds
$28k cash

Taxable unknown location $42k-OTC stock cert was in my safe until Monday. overnighted to Vanguard yesterday
$42k bank stock (loss)


Taxable unknown location $20k-Vanguard
$10k Total Stock
$10k Total International

401k
500 Index
small cal
bonds

Roth IRA $6.5k
$6.5k MJX
Hopefully things are clearer now. Thanks in advance for your help!
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

t885
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Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:56 pm

Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:11 am

retiredjg wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:06 am


You have already told us "My investment stratgey was that of trying to hit the perviable home run which inevitably was followed up with a loss of equal to or greater than the winner.....". Taking a 90/10 position at this point in life could very well be equal to making that mistake over again.



Point taken.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

t885
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Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:56 pm

Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:28 am

pkcrafter wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:59 am
t88, I was going to comment on your asset allocation too, but retiredjg has now covered it, so I'll just add a bit more explanation.

When choosing an asset allocation (AA), you need to assess need to take risk, ability, and willingness. In your situation, you do have a lot of need, but you don't have all that much ability. You hit some rough spots in your 40's, and 90% equity could possibly drop your portfolio value by 30-40%. You don't want that to happen at this point in your life. So, the best approach is a reasonable AA and a a big effort on increased savings. In looking at retirement needs, we use 25x your needed income from assets as the amount saved. SS and pensions help lower needed income from investments.

Max wife's IRA or Roth along with opening a small business plan.

https://investor.vanguard.com/what-we-o ... mpgn=PS:RE

How much are you paying the advisor? You might consider dropping him once you get up to speed on the Boglehead's philosophy. Create one portfolio using all available accounts. Advisor is charging 3/4% on the account value. My original plan was to leave 50K with the advisor for one year and then look at my options based on their performance.
A little background on my trading. I was exclusively trading options on RUT, specifically iron butterfy, risking upwards of 15K per month. Everything was great. Until is wasn't. The stress got to the point that I shut everything down turned over half my account to an advisor shut the computer off and tried to enjoy living not worring about what the market was doing.



Paul
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:40 am

Watty wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:52 am
retiredjg wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:06 am
At age 51, you no longer have the ability to invest this aggressively in my opinion. "Ability" refers (somewhat) to your portfolio's ability to bounce back after a crash. At your age, you now have less time for that to happen. You need to start focusing more on preserving what you have.
+1

In addition to the possibility of getting bad investing returns there is also the chance that you will not be able to work to 65+ because of health or career setbacks. I have seen lots of people in their 50's run into things like this. I have a stable job that I can work till I am 70 if needed. God willing my health will not fail me but one never know.

The good news is that being in the 24% federal tax bracket implies that you have a combined income of maybe $200K a year or more, and you also seem to have a paid off house. We are not in the 200k range yet more like 170K gross 140k after business deductions. Once the wife goes back to work full time we should be in the $225-250K range but we have made the choice that while the kids are still home she will only work part time 20-25 hrs per week

It might take some lifestyle changes but you should be able to save around $100K a year without too much trouble unless you have some large expenses, like costly health problems, that you did not mention. With a paid off house lots of people can live very well with incomes of $80K (or a lot less less) so you may need to live more like that.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:05 am

t885 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:45 pm
Taxable unknown location $42k-OTC stock cert was in my safe until Monday. overnighted to Vanguard yesterday
$42k bank stock (loss)
What is Vanguard going to do with this?

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:08 am

t885 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:45 pm

401k
500 Index
small cal
bonds
How much money is in this account?

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:03 am

retiredjg wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:05 am
t885 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:45 pm
Taxable unknown location $42k-OTC stock cert was in my safe until Monday. overnighted to Vanguard yesterday
$42k bank stock (loss)
What is Vanguard going to do with this?
According to the advisior that I spoke with at Vanguard. I will have the ability to sell the stock which I plan on doing sometime this year. My thoughts are that with the increasing rate invironment the stock will continue to go up at which point I will liquidate and dump into my Vanguard fund
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:20 am

retiredjg wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:08 am
t885 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:45 pm

401k
500 Index
small cal
bonds
How much money is in this account?
Current value is $64K
I am contributing the maximum amount $24K. With emplyeer matching funds including profit sharing total is near $34k per year.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:20 am

Ok. Since you didn't put in a dollar value for each holding, I'm still taking a guess at what you have. However, I think it is OK to continue at this point. Here's my best guess at your current holdings. Total portfolio = $246,952


Taxable at TDA $64,452
2.4%CIF $5920 junk bond
1.7% SCD $4185 50/50 fund
6.8% TWMJF $16,715 marijuana stock
8.1% ACBFF $19,960 marijuana stock
4% NVAX $9872
3.2% Cash $7800


Taxable at Planner 20.2% $50k
? money market
? mutual funds
11.3% $28k cash


Taxable at Vanguard $62k
4% $10k Total Stock
4% $10k Total International
17% 42k on the way


401k. 25.9% $64k
? 500 Index
? small cal
? bonds

His Roth IRA $6.5k
2.6% $6.5k MJX. MJ stock


These are the things I think you should do.

1) TDA account - sell it all now. There is not a single holding in that account that you should keep. Individual stocks are very risky and you have picked the riskiest of the risky. Junk bonds are not only risky but, when held in a taxable account, trigger unnecessary taxes at your highest tax rate.

This account represents a continuation of your get rich quick mentality of the past. You already know what is likely to happen with these funds. If you continue to hold them it only means you have not finished learning your painful lesson. You simply cannot sell this stuff fast enough. It is hoped you will have enough capital losses to offset your capital gains in 2018 but even if you don't, this is a move you NEED to make.

What to do with the TDA account? It can stay at TDA and be invested in broad index funds or ETFs such as a total stock or total international. That would be OK. Or you can move it to Vanguard and invest in a similar way.


2) Taxable account at planner - I suggest that you cannot afford to pay .75% for an AUM account. Sell this and move it to either Vanguard or TDA (depending on the decision about your TDA account).


3) Taxable at Vanguard Keep the index funds. Take enough from the $42k to fill a Roth IRA for you for 2018 and a Roth IRA for your wife for 2017 and 2018 both. Invest the rest in total stock and total international.

Alternative - don't put any of this money into 2018 Roth IRAs but do fill the 2017 Roth IRA for wife asap, certainly before tax day. If you do this alternative, the two 2018 Roth IRAs need to be filled from salary.

In either case, do not wait for this stock to regain any value. Sell it now and use the loss to offset gains elsewhere.


4) His 401k For now, move this entire account to bonds. Later on, you can start putting money into the other two funds.


5) His Roth IRA Exchange this into a broad index fund - not sure which one at this moment.


What I'm trying to do is set you up with something like a 3 fund portfolio - 45% total stock index, 25% total international index, and 30% total bond index. Modifications will need to be made to approximate this idea.

I think you should move to a 70% stock/30% bond portfolio. This is still a fairly aggressive portfolio for your age, but not stupid crazy. For now, putting the entire 401k into the bond fund will get you close to that. Keep putting only bonds into that account until you reach a full 30% bond allocation. Then you can start back using the US stock funds that you are currently using.


You have not mentioned how much money you plan to save each year. The 401k will get $24k (plus a nice match). You need to fill 2 Roth IRAs from your salary every year. And you need to save some in taxable if you can. How much do you reasonably think you two can save during 2018 and following years? (It needs to be a lot. :happy)

I think you are at the point where you can see that a change must happen. If you continue on in your previous fashion, you may not have enough money to retire on. Especially since you have 4 kids who you hope will go to college. I'm not at all sure how that is going to be managed.

You are starting late and the only way to reliably catch up is to save more and save longer. Which brings us to the things you have done right.....

Somehow in all this mess you have paid off the mortgage and your wife has received the training for you to be a fairly high earning two income household. You've started your 401k and a Roth IRA (although that stock choice is poor :twisted: ). These were probably not small feats and you should be commended for getting this far. 8-)

Now is the time to fix the rest of it. I know my suggestion is probably not what you were looking for, but I hope you will take it seriously and make these changes.

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:39 am

Here's the long term idea I have in mind.
  • Taxable - total stock and total international

    401k - 500 index, your entire bond allocation

    His and Her Roth IRAs - extended market index (mid and small cap stocks that would "complete" the 500 index in the 401k), maybe some 500 index if needed

Setting it up this way means you don't have to worry about wash sales if you need to sell something in taxable at a loss or if you decide to tax loss harvest.

t885
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:26 pm

Thank you for your input and time.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

t885
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:56 pm

Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by t885 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:01 pm

retiredjg wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:20 am

401k. 25.9% $64k
51.03 500 Index
25.14% small cal
23.85% bonds



It took a leap of faith but between yesterday and today I've turned all my holdings to cash in the TD account and I am in the process of transfering everything to Vanguard.

To be honest. I think if I told someone that I took the advice from a financial website, from someone I never met and sold $50K worth of stock and totaly revamped a $250K portfolio. They would think i was crazy.

That being said. Having just finished reading John Bogle "The little book of common sense investing" the advice received here only reinforced my resolve to make the necessary changes to my speculative investment program.


You have not mentioned how much money you plan to save each year. I am having 1k per month DD to vanguard
The 401k will get $24k (plus a nice match).
You need to fill 2 Roth IRAs from your salary every year.Done
And you need to save some in taxable if you can. How much do you reasonably think you two can save during 2018 and following years? (It needs to be a lot. :happy)

I think you are at the point where you can see that a change must happen. If you continue on in your previous fashion, you may not have enough money to retire on. Especially since you have 4 kids who you hope will go to college. Two kids both have a trust fund to pay for college
I'm not at all sure how that is going to be managed.

You are starting late and the only way to reliably catch up is to save more and save longer. Which brings us to the things you have done right.....

Somehow in all this mess you have paid off the mortgage and your wife has received the training for you to be a fairly high earning two income household. You've started your 401k and a Roth IRA (although that stock choice is poor :twisted: ). These were probably not small feats and you should be commended for getting this far. 8-) Thanks it wasn't easy

Now is the time to fix the rest of it. I know my suggestion is probably not what you were looking for, but I hope you will take it seriously and make these changes.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know

retiredjg
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Re: Advice needed on my portfoilo

Post by retiredjg » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:58 am

:happy Impressive.

Sounds like you were ready for a change. Good choice on the Bogle book! There are many others that people here like to recommend.

If you have not found it already, our Wiki also has information on many aspects of finances and retirement. A good place to start is the "Getting Started" link.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

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