REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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rarvesen
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REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

NOTE TO EVERYONE: IF YOU DON'T USE THE NEW AUTOMATIC REGISTRATION FORM AS INDICATED BELOW, YOU'RE NOT ENTERED. FOLLOW DIRECTIONS IF YOU WANT TO ENTER.

Taylor asked me to announce our new automatic registration for the annual contest. Instead of entering your guess here, you will need to enter your guess using the contest entry form. This will make it easier to collect all of the entries and remove the manual process associated with collecting entries. I tried to make it as easy as possible, hopefully everyone finds it easy to enter. This is the first time trying this, so there might be some issues to work through, let me know if you run into any problems.

You can access the contest entry form at the tracking site:
https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/

Or, directly at (both go to the same form):
https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/entry.html

Rules
  • Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2018.
  • Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
  • In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
  • Registration ends 12:00 midnight EDT, January 10, 2018.

Happy New Year and good luck! Thanks,
Ralph Aversen
Last edited by rarvesen on Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
EyeDee
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Re: Registration For 2018 Boglehead Contest

Post by EyeDee »

.
Ralph,

Nice changes. Particularly the dropping of the wild guesses from the averages. Although I do not submit a guess, I do enjoy watching the process during the year.

To provide a link to the details of the changes: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=236261
Randy | SCA - Build Savings early by living below one's means, minimize Costs including taxes, and maintain a diverse Allocation.
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rarvesen
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Re: Registration For 2018 Boglehead Contest

Post by rarvesen »

EyeDee wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:07 am .
Ralph,

Nice changes. Particularly the dropping of the wild guesses from the averages. Although I do not submit a guess, I do enjoy watching the process during the year.

To provide a link to the details of the changes: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=236261
Thanks Randy, I appreciate the comment.
--
ralph
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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

Thank you, Ralph.

The spreadsheet is a great idea, but the entries can be made by anyone. In order to keep things honest and avoid mistakes, may I recommend that members also post their guesses in this thread?

If someone makes a typo in the username, the forum post can be used to authenticate the entry. Since Ralph does not permit changes, entries in the spreadsheet supersede forum posts.

I would also suggest that Ralph have editorial control of the comments - to remove at his discretion.

My entry has been submitted: 3,210.98
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FreeAtLast
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FreeAtLast »

2165.62.
Bearish for another year; someday I will be correct.

Edit: Also posted with the Google Form
Last edited by FreeAtLast on Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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sandramjet
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sandramjet »

2792.12, and I really hope it is much too low!
Silverado
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Silverado »

2913.53 (in form also)
Last edited by Silverado on Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
acanthurus
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Removed

Post by acanthurus »

Removed
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cfs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cfs »

3003.30
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
investorpeter
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by investorpeter »

3074.65
Plan4tomorrow
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Plan4tomorrow »

2520.30
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fetch5482
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by fetch5482 »

2384.01
Just a random guess 😂
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johnbarry
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by johnbarry »

2432.11
amitb00
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by amitb00 »

3223.54
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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

entries can be made by anyone
I thought about that also and it's a valid concern. The Google Form helps several issues and I was hoping valid-users would not be a problem, but if it looks like it's a problem, then I can write something that validates each user back to the Boglehead Forum... not sure how yet.

also post their guesses in this thread
In my opinion, posting guesses in this thread will make it more confusing, I suspect some people will only post to this thread and wonder why their entry is not included. But if people want to also post to this thread, I don't think that is a problem.

does not permit changes
I turned on the ability to edit submissions on the form, I did not know that was an option :-)

In the past, posting entries to the forum thread was very time consuming and error prone, I could write a script that collected entries from the thread, but I could not be sure it was 100% accurate. The Google Form helps since all of the entries are collected in one area and it's very easy to update the tracking site.

I'm willing to do whatever works out best for everyone.
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JamesSFO
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JamesSFO »

Submitted, thanks, I would say if using the form a mod or should go through this thread and mark entries that are being placed here w/ a note saying it won't be entered or someone should quote them and let them know they need to submit.

Form is much better!
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by dotstar »

2841.59786783
ABQ4804
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ABQ4804 »

2822.69 is my random guess - already submitted using the new 2018 form, to spreadsheet.
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bligh
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bligh »

I consulted my psychic astrologer. I then cross checked her answer with my tarot car picking parrot as well as asked my uncle who can read tea leaves.

It is confirmed. The S&P 500 will close at 2922.44 on the last day of 2018.
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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

rarvesen wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:16 pm entries can be made by anyone
I thought about that also and it's a valid concern. The Google Form helps several issues and I was hoping valid-users would not be a problem, but if it looks like it's a problem, then I can write something that validates each user back to the Boglehead Forum... not sure how yet.
Early in the contest, I see a problem. Someone entered their email address instead of a username.

As a site admin, I know who this is and sent you a PM to correct the entry manually. I recommend validating the form so members can't enter anything containing an email address, e.g . contains "@" in the username.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mudpuppy »

rarvesen wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:16 pm entries can be made by anyone
I thought about that also and it's a valid concern. The Google Form helps several issues and I was hoping valid-users would not be a problem, but if it looks like it's a problem, then I can write something that validates each user back to the Boglehead Forum... not sure how yet.
You can look up usernames with the Member List page when logged in: memberlist.php. Automating a search through that page would be painful though. I can't seem to find a way to programmatically access the "Find a member" search on that page.

If the user has made a post, the Advanced Search by author could be programmatically accessed and used to validate the user. For example, to find all of my posts, one would use search.php?author=Mudpuppy. When the user has no posts, the search returns "No suitable matches were found." For example, searching for the non-existent author Mudp would be the following URL: search.php?author=Mudp
nodenuff2
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by nodenuff2 »

2849.41
2014 No. 42 2015 No.342 2016 No. 6 2017 238 2018 no. 175 2019 no. 144 6 year average 157.83. Proves I am just an average investor.What do I know? "Good bless America land that I love..."
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oldzey
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by oldzey »

2986.42 (also posted via the Google Form)

Thanks!
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sergeant
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sergeant »

1984.73 Posted on form too.
Last edited by sergeant on Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by CyclingDuo »

2997.38
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warowits
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by warowits »

2555.55
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saltycaper
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by saltycaper »

2,718.28, naturally
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
renter
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by renter »

2539.54
david
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by david »

3014.83
sauron22333
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sauron22333 »

2897.7
charis23
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by charis23 »

First time trying this. My guess is 3208.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mudpuppy »

I hope everyone who is guessing in this thread is also filling out the entry form, as stated in the instructions at the top of the thread.
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Kalo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Kalo »

2897.45

Posted to the form in the link too.

I came up with this number while under the influence of alcohol. True story.

Kalo
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Engineer250
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Engineer250 »

Submitted. 2971.36.

I re-interpreted some Nostradamus texts and there will be no bear this year.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
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Christine_NM
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Christine_NM »

Rows 189 and 190 on the spreadsheet are identical, both mine -- sorry about that. Feel free to delete one. Or delete both and I will resubmit the form.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Rick Ferri »

Thanks for reminding me to use the form!
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FreeAtLast
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FreeAtLast »

saltycaper wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:58 pm 2,718.28, naturally
I just logged in to the Forum and do appreciate your exponentially clear choice. 8-)
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barnaclebob
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by barnaclebob »

2525.00 going to go with last years guess

Hope I'm wrong and I really hope I don't wish i was right!
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SGM »

3100 even. I am optimistic. I convinced someone in my breakfast bunch to compete. So go high stock buyers so that I can have bragging rights later this year over just another w.a.g. 8-)
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saltycaper
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by saltycaper »

FreeAtLast wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:46 am
saltycaper wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:58 pm 2,718.28, naturally
I just logged in to the Forum and do appreciate your exponentially clear choice. 8-)
I can't take all the decision-making credit. My number practically derived itself.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
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Wricha
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Wricha »

Put me down for 2885.01
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FinancialDave »

I have entered 2967.67 on the form.
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

Christine_NM wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:06 am Rows 189 and 190 on the spreadsheet are identical, both mine -- sorry about that. Feel free to delete one. Or delete both and I will resubmit the form.
Hi Christine - I took care of this, you are in good shape.
gypsydavey
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gypsydavey »

2877.40

A well considered SWAG.
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JPH
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JPH »

2720.49
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Apophis
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Apophis »

2914.33 Hopefully I am below target once again :sharebeer
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Majormajor78
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Majormajor78 »

2391.49
"Oh, M. le Comte, it is only a loss of money which I have sustained... nothing worth mentioning, I assure you."
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hornet96
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by hornet96 »

2974.75
mrtiger
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mrtiger »

Last few years were great so I don't expect much, if anything at all. 2798.68
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mrtiger »

Last few years were great so I don't expect much, if anything at all. 2798.68
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