TD2626 wrote: ↑
Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:25 pm
I told myself about 6 months ago I’d get to the bottom of investing – and took a deep, deep dive, reading an enormous number of historical threads on this site, reading Vanguard white papers, academic papers, the wiki, books, etc. I’ve been primarily focused on wrapping my head around theory and finding the ideal, perfect portfolio.
Unfortunately, it’s just not working. The more I learn, the more I realize how little I know compared to all there is to learn. I’ve gained some familiarity with many topics, and I had hoped that by now I would be able to find perfection. However, I am not able to find anything that I can prove beyond a reasonable doubt would improve upon a simple portfolio like the Three Fund portfolio (or a similar portfolio involving things like Lifestrategy or Target date options, or Total World + Total bond two fund portfolios, etc).
The issue is that there are plenty of things that I could reasonably and defensibly add to a three fund portfolio. Some of them I could even argue meet a “preponderance of evidence” standard for inclusion. But if I try to tilt towards everything I’d end up with an unmanageable mess. And none of this would meet my high standards for perfection and quantitative rigor when coming up with allocations.
Have you looked at Gretchen Rubin's 4 Tendency Framework? (Author website - https://gretchenrubin.com/books/the-fou ... ies/intro/
) or jump to this page with a ~5 min video with Rubin talking about questioners https://gretchenrubin.com/2017/06/questioners-video/
Reading your original post and the dialog you come across strongly as a questioner in this thread.
You might want to think about some of Rubin's strategies for moving forward with the decision:
1) Set a deadline to act, e.g. by this date I will implement a strategy and move on
2) Try an experiment with some of your money (or multiple experiments) and re-evaluate if it is working in ~12-24 months
3) Pick just one, later in the thread there is a discussion of you merging ~5 or so well respected experts opinions to create a ~60 fund portfolio. The reality is that experts are not going to have a unity of opinion, so pick one you feel is most rational from your experience and go with that (see (2) and (1))
4) Accept that understanding investing is a process. Whatever your day job is, you didn't become a pro at it overnight. Learning about investing is going to take time, so perhaps stage gate this into what you will do for the next 3-5 years as you learn more vs. what you do after. (variation of (2)/(3))
5) Outsource the decision making, go to a low cost robo advisor (Schwab, Wealthfront, Betterment, Vanguard PAS is effectively one) and decide that you will accept their expert opinion for now.
Anyhow, good luck on your learning journey.