Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

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DCChak
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by DCChak » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:30 am

Nuerosphere,

JDSU was my GLW. I recall both of them trading in sync around that time.

I ended up learning a similar, costly at the time, but not so costly over the long-term, lesson.

Oddly enough, my law school classmate ended up becoming general counsel of JDSU just before it changed into Viavi in the late 2010s. On paper, he benefited from a second, much smaller, bump, though I remember him being frustrated that he couldn't cash in due to restrictions on the shares.
Last edited by DCChak on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Psyayeayeduck
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Psyayeayeduck » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:39 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:10 am
Bitcoin went to over 14,000 overnight. Does this mean more people are throwing money into bitcoin or it is more valuable for some other reason. I know this is a stupid question, but I want to understand. Bitcoin feels like dot.com stocks to me, with people jumping on the momentum. But I don’t know what to think except that I can’t imagine myself ever using it.
That is exactly what it is. It's pure greed betting on the thought that it will go higher. This is the same route with the Dutch and tulips. This is the same route of the dot com bust. This is the same route when it came to flipping houses before the 2008-2009 Great Recession. If one was already in knees deep in BC before it became a daily news article, they have already won and should tap out. Unfortunately, there are those folks who will risk everything they have to get that A+ even though getting the A- is good enough.

It's like being on a game show where you have already won the dining room set, the BBQ grill, the year supply of maid service, the jewelry, the Around the World trip, and and a fistful of cash and risking all those prizes so you can get a car with odds not in your favor. Quit now and call it a win if you are already in. I feel no sympathy if one continues on this path despite dire warnings.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by fatlever » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am

Psyayeayeduck wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:39 am

That is exactly what it is. It's pure greed betting on the thought that it will go higher. This is the same route with the Dutch and tulips. This is the same route of the dot com bust. This is the same route when it came to flipping houses before the 2008-2009 Great Recession. If one was already in knees deep in BC before it became a daily news article, they have already won and should tap out. Unfortunately, there are those folks who will risk everything they have to get that A+ even though getting the A- is good enough.
You do realize that the implementation of Bitcoin itself was experiment at a possible solution to the the complete lack of faith in governments and central banks where banks are bailed out by printing money out of thin air at the expense of everyone whose money is devalued?

Satoshi's message in the Bitcoin Genesis block:
The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks
Mr. Bogle is revered here for providing us with low cost index funds that give us low cost access to a wide range of investments and markets. But Satoshi's experiment as he called is has much further reaching consequences even if it remotely succeeds. Bitcoin has been fueled by speculation but what if it results in an economic black swan event? It's really surprising that such an intelligent as we have here have such a narrow view and are certain that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, tulips and will crash. There are many who believe in the economic benefits of Bitcoin so much that some have have given up their well paying careers advocating and evangelizing Bitcoin for years.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Jags4186 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:42 am

fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
You do realize that the implementation of Bitcoin itself was experiment at a possible solution to the the complete lack of faith in governments and central banks where banks are bailed out by printing money out of thin air at the expense of everyone whose money is devalued?
Was money really devalued though? Inflation has been very low and even central bankers are confused to why. There are places where homes are still under their 2007 peak. Very low unemployment but wages aren't rising very fast.
fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
Satoshi's message in the Bitcoin Genesis block:
The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks
Mr. Bogle is revered here for providing us with low cost index funds that give us low cost access to a wide range of investments and markets. But Satoshi's experiment as he called is has much further reaching consequences even if it remotely succeeds. Bitcoin has been fueled by speculation but what if it results in an economic black swan event? It's really surprising that such an intelligent as we have here have such a narrow view and are certain that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, tulips and will crash. There are many who believe in the economic benefits of Bitcoin so much that some have have given up their well paying careers advocating and evangelizing Bitcoin for years.
The problem with Bitcoin, as I see it, is twofold.

1) You can create another superior cryptocurrency
2) No governing body which legitimizes it.

All world currencies have a very real demand, namely taxes. The United States requires taxes to be paid in US dollars. The United Kingdom requires taxes to be paid in British pounds. Germany requires taxes be paid in Euros. Canada requires taxes to be paid in Canadian dollars. While I can't speak for the other countries, in the United States if you avoid paying taxes for too long they throw you in jail and take all of your property. That threat creates a very real use for dollars.

Until there is a real use for Bitcoin that makes in indispensable over other crypto currencies it to me is merely a piece of hot "tech" that is in right now. Nokia used to be the hot cell phone until it wasn't. Better alternatives became available and people stopped using them.

Maybe I still don't quite understand!

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Psyayeayeduck
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Psyayeayeduck » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:56 am

fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
Bitcoin has been fueled by speculation but what if it results in an economic black swan event?


You are calling it a black swan when we are smack in the middle of it not knowing if it is a black swan event or a bear's den. Seems like a foolish conclusion with limited data.

alfaspider
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by alfaspider » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:00 am

fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
Psyayeayeduck wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:39 am

That is exactly what it is. It's pure greed betting on the thought that it will go higher. This is the same route with the Dutch and tulips. This is the same route of the dot com bust. This is the same route when it came to flipping houses before the 2008-2009 Great Recession. If one was already in knees deep in BC before it became a daily news article, they have already won and should tap out. Unfortunately, there are those folks who will risk everything they have to get that A+ even though getting the A- is good enough.
You do realize that the implementation of Bitcoin itself was experiment at a possible solution to the the complete lack of faith in governments and central banks where banks are bailed out by printing money out of thin air at the expense of everyone whose money is devalued?

Satoshi's message in the Bitcoin Genesis block:
The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks
Mr. Bogle is revered here for providing us with low cost index funds that give us low cost access to a wide range of investments and markets. But Satoshi's experiment as he called is has much further reaching consequences even if it remotely succeeds. Bitcoin has been fueled by speculation but what if it results in an economic black swan event? It's really surprising that such an intelligent as we have here have such a narrow view and are certain that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, tulips and will crash. There are many who believe in the economic benefits of Bitcoin so much that some have have given up their well paying careers advocating and evangelizing Bitcoin for years.
I firmly believe that bitcoin is a bubble, but that does not mean it's a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme is when a promoter uses cash from new investors to pay back old investors (while pocketing a substantial proportion). That's not what is happening with bitcoin. It's just a plain-old asset bubble.

There's an outside chance that Bitcoin could become a world currency on par with the Dollar or the Pound, but in order for that to happen, the exponential value increase needs to slow significantly and the exchange component needs to become much smoother, and security needs to be improved. Frankly, I don't see how that happens from a logistic and practical standpoint.

Bitcoin could very well go to 100,000 or 1,000,000 before this is all over. But that doesn't mean I am getting in. Just not in my constitution to try to figure out who the greatest fool is.

fatlever
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by fatlever » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:32 am

Psyayeayeduck wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:56 am
fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
Bitcoin has been fueled by speculation but what if it results in an economic black swan event?


You are calling it a black swan when we are smack in the middle of it not knowing if it is a black swan event or a bear's den. Seems like a foolish conclusion with limited data.
I am not saying it's a black swan event. I said what if it results in one -- what if it turns out to be one. I don't think we've seen anything like this and I think I am not sure how people can with absolute certainty call it modern tulips or ponzi scams.
alfaspider wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:00 am

Bitcoin could very well go to 100,000 or 1,000,000 before this is all over. But that doesn't mean I am getting in. Just not in my constitution to try to figure out who the greatest fool is.
Well, I want to FIRE if Bitcoin can help if I do that responsibly, is that an issue? As much as I have been posting in the Bitcoin threads, I have been very conservative re-balancing out of Bitcoin every time it balloons up and then dollar cost average back in small amounts. I've lost out on a ton of gains that way. But I am certainly glad I got in and I am benefiting. Even if Bitcoin drops to 0, I've significantly reduced the number of years I have to work. If it's a black swan event, it's like I've won the lottery. It's no risk, potential lottery reward.

In a thread earlier this year, someone posted they had $250K in crypto and I was thinking they were nuts. Maybe they have a million now and they were rewarded for that risk. :oops:

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by alfaspider » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:46 am

fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:32 am
Psyayeayeduck wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:56 am
fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
Bitcoin has been fueled by speculation but what if it results in an economic black swan event?


You are calling it a black swan when we are smack in the middle of it not knowing if it is a black swan event or a bear's den. Seems like a foolish conclusion with limited data.
I am not saying it's a black swan event. I said what if it results in one -- what if it turns out to be one. I don't think we've seen anything like this and I think I am not sure how people can with absolute certainty call it modern tulips or ponzi scams.
alfaspider wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:00 am

Bitcoin could very well go to 100,000 or 1,000,000 before this is all over. But that doesn't mean I am getting in. Just not in my constitution to try to figure out who the greatest fool is.
Well, I want to FIRE if Bitcoin can help if I do that responsibly, is that an issue? As much as I have been posting in the Bitcoin threads, I have been very conservative re-balancing out of Bitcoin every time it balloons up and then dollar cost average back in small amounts. I've lost out on a ton of gains that way. But I am certainly glad I got in and I am benefiting. Even if Bitcoin drops to 0, I've significantly reduced the number of years I have to work. If it's a black swan event, it's like I've won the lottery. It's no risk, potential lottery reward.

In a thread earlier this year, someone posted they had $250K in crypto and I was thinking they were nuts. Maybe they have a million now and they were rewarded for that risk. :oops:
You can certainly gamble and win. If your goal is to be fabulously wealthy or FI very young, you are probably going to have to take some significant risks to get there. That's not my goal, and for me, the risk exceeds the potential reward. You can also greatly accelerate FI from going to Las Vegas and putting all of your investments on a spin of the roulette wheel- there's an almost 50% chance you will double your money. That doesn't make it responsible.

I don't understand your comment that bitcoin is "no risk." You have gotten outsized gains in part because there's a very real risk that bitcoin could fall to nominal value like the proverbial tulip bulb, just as you could loose all your money by putting everything on a roulette wheel. DCA is reducing your risk, but also your potential returns.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by jalbert » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:38 am

Would you pay a 15-25% premium for an investment because of confidence in it rising even more?

http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/12/technol ... index.html

That is a classic bubble symptom.
Last edited by jalbert on Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Risk is not a guarantor of return.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by moneywise3 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:46 am

Didn’t Warren Buffet say at one point the same thing about tech stocks?

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Wakefield1 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:47 am

If and when Bitcoin does what I think it will do,perhaps after much more titillation,it won't be a black swan event because a true black swan event is something not predicable,probably not even foreseeable -perhaps the Fukushima Daiichi reactor disaster?
with Bitcoin there will be a lot of "I told you so" s.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by HomerJ » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:13 am

saltycaper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:15 pm
Looks like it's up about 30% since his comments 8 days ago, far outpacing the return of US stocks and bonds. So far Bogle's been wrong.
This is false. Do not confuse outcome with strategy.

I can tell you not to bet on Big 6 on a craps table because it's a sucker's bet. Even if you do it anyway, and win 4 times in a row does not mean I was wrong.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by HomerJ » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:22 am

fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
You do realize that the implementation of Bitcoin itself was experiment at a possible solution to the the complete lack of faith in governments and central banks where banks are bailed out by printing money out of thin air at the expense of everyone whose money is devalued?
This is an argument AGAINST bitcoin, because the vast majority of people (at least in the U.S.) do not have a complete lack of faith in the U.S. government or the banks, and money has not been devalued here (Inflation is low). So it will not be adopted by the masses, if that's the reason for bitcoin existing.

There are the fringe radicals who believe in bitcoin because they hate the government. And then the other 99% of U.S. people investing in bitcoin just want to get rich by CONVERTING BITCOIN BACK TO U.S. DOLLARS.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:42 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:22 am
fatlever wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 am
You do realize that the implementation of Bitcoin itself was experiment at a possible solution to the the complete lack of faith in governments and central banks where banks are bailed out by printing money out of thin air at the expense of everyone whose money is devalued?
This is an argument AGAINST bitcoin, because the vast majority of people (at least in the U.S.) do not have a complete lack of faith in the U.S. government or the banks, and money has not been devalued here (Inflation is low). So it will not be adopted by the masses, if that's the reason for bitcoin existing.

There are the fringe radicals who believe in bitcoin because they hate the government.
It's definitely next-gen gold. Maybe us old folks think of gold in this context but those young whipper-snappers, why they think digitally. There's no ap for gold (is there?) but crypto-currencies ....
And then the other 99% of U.S. people investing in bitcoin just want to get rich by CONVERTING BITCOIN BACK TO U.S. DOLLARS.
Other possible conversions include:

- Tesla cars
- second homes in Florida or mountains of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming etc.
- long holidays in exotic locales
- early retirement (OK, granted, you have to buy that retirement with money - but as an end goal)
- Apple products

;-).

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Rolyatroba » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:49 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:22 am
This is an argument AGAINST bitcoin, because the vast majority of people (at least in the U.S.) do not have a complete lack of faith in the U.S. government or the banks, and money has not been devalued here (Inflation is low). So it will not be adopted by the masses, if that's the reason for bitcoin existing.
Whether one likes or dislikes the strategy of any given cycle, monetary policy is certainly an important lever for the behavior of any economy. So, it would seem to me that no sane society would want to abandon those tools, which is what would happen if cryptocurrencies didn't have some government control.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by jalbert » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:56 pm

moneywise3 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:46 am
Didn’t Warren Buffet say at one point the same thing about tech stocks?
Yes, it was also true of internet stocks in 1999
Risk is not a guarantor of return.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by CnC » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm

People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by 2pedals » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:23 pm

CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
No intrinsic value and all extrinsic value.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:52 pm

Rolyatroba wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:49 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:22 am
This is an argument AGAINST bitcoin, because the vast majority of people (at least in the U.S.) do not have a complete lack of faith in the U.S. government or the banks, and money has not been devalued here (Inflation is low). So it will not be adopted by the masses, if that's the reason for bitcoin existing.
Whether one likes or dislikes the strategy of any given cycle, monetary policy is certainly an important lever for the behavior of any economy. So, it would seem to me that no sane society would want to abandon those tools, which is what would happen if cryptocurrencies didn't have some government control.
Remember though that you don't have independent monetary policy if you have fixed exchange rates. Or one currency, like the Eurozone (you have one size fits all MP, then).

We live in a world of managed exchange rates, so countries don't have as much discretion as you might think.

To have truly independent MP, you need exchange controls. Cue China. Which then has had to clamp down on bitcoin ... so we go round in circles.

I think the real problem is the trackability of money-- money that can tracelessly be used for paying for criminal activities, money laundering and tax evasion- -that's what the real problem for the state is.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by CnC » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:03 pm

2pedals wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:23 pm
CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
No intrinsic value and all extrinsic value.
Yes.

You can certainly make money via speculation. But the coins themselves are good for nothing and backed by nothing.

Gotta just hope you are not the one left holding the bag when the bar closes. I just hope it goes ahead and crashes prior to it getting too high that it effects the economy.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by saltycaper » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:56 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:13 am
saltycaper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:15 pm
Looks like it's up about 30% since his comments 8 days ago, far outpacing the return of US stocks and bonds. So far Bogle's been wrong.
This is false. Do not confuse outcome with strategy.

I can tell you not to bet on Big 6 on a craps table because it's a sucker's bet. Even if you do it anyway, and win 4 times in a row does not mean I was wrong.
No. It's true. Outcome, strategy, schmategy. What makes the most money is what's right. Don't believe me? Just ask Jack Bogle.

Jack's still been wrong about bitcoin. He's even more wrong today than he was when I first said he's been wrong, 7 days ago.

*This post as well as the post HomerJ quoted is a sarcastic reference to Jack Bogle's stance on international stocks as well as a lengthy thread that appeared on the Bogleheads regarding just how "right" Jack was about whether or not investors should maintain an international allocation.
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Thesaints » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:24 pm

In order to be wrong or right one has to show the rationale behind the assessment.
If someone bets $100 on number 11 at the roulette because it has not come out in the last 1,000 spins, the fact that he wins or loses is irrelevant. Winning those $3,500 can only make him lucky, not right.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Texas Radio » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:27 pm

If Bitcoin is becoming an asset class it is by far the smallest asset class. 279 billion market cap versus 7.5 trillion for gold. If Bitcoin is viewed as a non-correlated asset it's a great diversifier under modern portfolio theory. There is talk of this and so people are moving a small percentage of their overall wealth into the space. If all this is so then Bitcoin has a lot higher to go.
A portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it the smaller it gets.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Thesaints » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:28 pm

All perfectly random investment classes, such as BTC and Bingo, are perfectly uncorrelated to everything else by definition.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by whiteprius » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:00 pm

"Hey we invented a currency that sanctioned countries like Russia, terrorists and criminals can use to evade U.S. laws, and no don't worry the U.S. government won't ever crack down and destroy its value"

:oops:

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by new2bogle2 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:18 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:19 pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... the-plague
“Avoid bitcoin like the plague. Did I make myself clear?” Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group Inc., said in response to an audience question at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York Tuesday.
I'm glad to hear him say this. Nice article, thank you. I have been avoiding it so it is nice to know I was on the right track.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by new2bogle2 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm

CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by new2bogle2 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:20 pm

moneywise3 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:46 am
Didn’t Warren Buffet say at one point the same thing about tech stocks?
Buffet said to avoid Tech Stocks like the plague? Maybe he should stick to investing the way he told his wife to....Index Funds!

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Thesaints » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:20 pm

new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
You mean treasuries ?

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by new2bogle2 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:31 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:20 pm
new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
You mean treasuries ?
Image

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Thesaints » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:33 pm

Oh, they are good. That's the only species people are allowed to use to pay their taxes and the US Government collects trillions worth of them every year.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by saltycaper » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:59 pm

new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
Yup. It's backed, in part, by you.
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by tavore » Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:25 pm

I put in $500 from my hockey fund when BTC was around 4000, and cashed out a few weeks later when it hit 16000. That should cover my playoff tickets, assuming the Sharks make it. :beer

I don't like unsteady/unpredictable markets. I'll wait until it stabilizes to get back in. Or if I have leftover playoff funds in the spring - gotta have some upside 8-)

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm

new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper are reliable means of exchange, which can be used to buy food, clothing, shelter and medical care.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Spacoli » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:30 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:22 am
This is an argument AGAINST bitcoin, because the vast majority of people (at least in the U.S.) do not have a complete lack of faith in the U.S. government or the banks, and money has not been devalued here (Inflation is low). So it will not be adopted by the masses, if that's the reason for bitcoin existing.

There are the fringe radicals who believe in bitcoin because they hate the government. And then the other 99% of U.S. people investing in bitcoin just want to get rich by CONVERTING BITCOIN BACK TO U.S. DOLLARS.
Maybe. Maybe not. It sounds like the individuals and countries driving up Bitcoin's price - are Asian. I'm guessing many of them do have a lack of faith in the U.S. government and banks (e.g., 2007-2009). It sounds like U.S. investment/speculation only accounts for 1/5 of total bitcoin trading volume. I guess it's debatable whether those countries have the power to sustain Bitcoin's run, but it's interesting nonetheless.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense ... south.html

Thesaints
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Thesaints » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:36 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm
U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper
I must object: Federal Reserve notes are not IOU's. At least they haven't been since 1964.
Spacoli wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:30 pm
Maybe. Maybe not. It sounds like the individuals and countries driving up Bitcoin's price - are Asian. I'm guessing many of them do have a lack of faith in the U.S. government and banks (e.g., 2007-2009).
Why would Asian individuals and "countries" (which ones ?) care about US governments and banks ? They have their own. Now, if you had written that they turn to BTC because they have no faith in their own currencies, that would make some sense. Although, a currency with a value that can swing by 25% in less than a week is a pretty one.

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ruralavalon
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:53 am

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:36 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm
U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper
I must object: Federal Reserve notes are not IOU's. At least they haven't been since 1964
I was using CnC's terminology, not endorsing it, to demonstrate that you can buy necessities of life with government issued currency.

Perhaps I should have put "government IOU pieces of paper" in quotes.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

uberational44
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by uberational44 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:01 am

Bogle had been wrong before...

One example that is Michael Burry of big short fame:

viewtopic.php?t=53971
Marketeer investing as a hobby. Interested in modern takes on value investing, passive investing and general contrarianism.

john4546
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by john4546 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:12 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm
new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper are reliable means of exchange, which can be used to buy food, clothing, shelter and medical care.
Another important thing: Does the U.S. Federal government accept bitcoin for the payment of federal taxes?

The government only accepts U.S. dollars for tax payments - very, very important.

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ruralavalon
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:24 am

john4546 wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:12 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm
new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper are reliable means of exchange, which can be used to buy food, clothing, shelter and medical care.
Another important thing: Does the U.S. Federal government accept bitcoin for the payment of federal taxes?

The government only accepts U.S. dollars for tax payments - very, very important.
Also U.S. dollars are legal tender for all debts public and private.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

john4546
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by john4546 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:24 am
john4546 wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:12 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm
new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper are reliable means of exchange, which can be used to buy food, clothing, shelter and medical care.
Another important thing: Does the U.S. Federal government accept bitcoin for the payment of federal taxes?

The government only accepts U.S. dollars for tax payments - very, very important.
Also U.S. dollars are legal tender for all debts public and private.

The U.S. is monetarily sovereign - meaning it is a currency issuer, and the U.S. federal government, like the Japanese government, and any other country that issues its own currency, cannot go bankrupt, ever. These countries can always pay their debts. Do a google search and learn about "Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)."

Please see these websites if you want to learn more:

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com

https://mythfighter.com

And to those who (a.k.a. the "Hyperinflationistas") think that we will get hyperinflation, hyperinflation is actually a very, very difficult economic phenomena to achieve. There is currency supply and DEMAND, which the "hyperinflationistas" don't get: There is still massive demand for the U.S. dollar, not just in the U.S., but also globally (being also the world reserve currency). Despite the hee-hawing of the naysayers and fear mongers, the U.S. dollar is by far the most coveted, stable and valued currency on the entire planet, and its dominance will most probably be maintained for the foreseeable future. Something like bitcoin is unlikely to replace the U.S. dollar any time soon.

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