bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

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grayfox
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by grayfox » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:16 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:06 am

Would you hold or sell? ie. if hypothetically holding 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin. Would you sell at 2X return? At 1 BTC = $20,000 ? Or hold indefinitely ?
I am under the impression that most people jumping into bitcoin are completely unaware of the issues. I found out about them by watching Youtubes of bitcoin conferences and presentations, reading articles, reading reddit, etc. In other words, you've got to do your homework. But that is very time consuming, as in spending weeks reading and watching Youtubes. Most people probably don't have the time and probably have not done this.

:arrow: But the fact is that there are huge problems with bitcoin that no one has solved yet.

My guess is that the price will keep going up and as more people pile in after hearing about it going up. At this point it seems to be becoming a worldwide mania. I would probably take some profits while continuing to hold some. If it keeps going up you participate; if it crashes you already have profits.

BTW, I have no idea whether bitcoin blockchain can scale or not. It's far too complex for a layman to fully understand. Even the experts can't agree. There's another faction that disagrees with the Core Developers and says that bitcoin has no problem scaling. They have hard forked another version called Bitcoin Cash. They still believe in the original Satoshi idea, so Bitcoin Cash works more like the old bitcoin. They are going to scale on the block chain with bigger blocks.

It might make sense to diversify into both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Also, there are a bunch of other hard forks of bitcoin like Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Silver, Bitcoin Diamond, etc.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:53 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:06 am
grayfox wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:07 pm
So then, if you are investing in Bitcoin, you are not really betting on Bitcoin Blockchain, because the Core Developers have already decided that the bitcoin blockchain can't scale beyond the 5 or 10 transactions per second. You are betting on the Lightning Network LN, which has been in development for a couple of years.

Is LN going to work? I would call it a high-risk bet. It's not simply a question of whether people will adopt bitcoin. The big risk is whether or not the Bitcoin/LN system will work as promised, i.e. allow anyone in the world to send any amount of money, including micropayments, to anyone else anywhere in the world instantly for near zero cost.

Original Bitcoin has already failed to deliver on that, according to the Bitocin Core Developers. I'm told that they have already done one LN transaction. It has to do millions per second. Just recall that Bitcoin was working and had done millions of transactions over about seven years before the Core Developers decided that it really wasn't going to work.

:idea: Creating a decentralized cryptocurrency that handles 2,000 or more transactions per second might be a harder problem to solve than people think.
Would you hold or sell? ie. if hypothetically holding 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin. Would you sell at 2X return? At 1 BTC = $20,000 ? Or hold indefinitely ?
Why not wait for 4X and sell half? Lock in an oversize gain and have enough left in to make a difference?
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by technovelist » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:57 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:31 am
happyisland wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:04 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:06 am
Would you hold or sell? ie. if hypothetically holding 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin. Would you sell at 2X return? At 1 BTC = $20,000 ? Or hold indefinitely ?
Great questions! One thing I just cannot wrap my mind around is what the rough intrinsic value of a bitcoin should be. It is confusing that its price history is so incredibly volatile...
This is why some dot com era stocks got so high.

Because they were not making actual profits, let alone paying dividends, the market valued them on metrics like price/ click, price/ user, which was seen as an estimate of future earnings power. Or the takeout price by some incumbent who would have to take them out.

Of course that worked-- much later Facebook bought out WhatsAp on simply the basis of users & rising penetration. There were no earnings.

Price per engineer became a metric ;-).

But the reality is that for 99% of dot com related stocks, it did not work. Even Amazon-- took a very long time to get your money back if you bought Amazon in Jan 2000. Google was not listed then. Facebook did not yet exist.

It is easiest to have valuation bubbles if a company has no, or minimal, discernible metrics. Whereas a company making profits, cash flow, paying dividends-- you can do a valuation on that (however specious).

And so cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin offer the opportunity of both under and overvaluation because there is no way to tell.

And thus, volatility.
Yes, in fact I knew one of the people who was worth 8 figures from the dotcom boom, and he told me that it was a good thing that his company had no earnings, because that way they didn't have a P/E ratio to worry about. :confused

He never sold, and I'm pretty sure he is in the one comma club now. :oops:
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

ensign_lee
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by ensign_lee » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:02 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:52 pm
All this to say that by the time it's the year 2140-ish (when the last of the 21M should be mined), fees should be sufficient to incentivize miners.
Can somebody explain where 2140 guess is coming from? I understand 21M limit but what are the assumptions inherent in coming up with the end date? Are computational price over next 125 years and energy costs over next 125 years being extrapolated based upon the last 120 years?
So basically, blocks are created, on average, about every 10 minutes. The difficulty always adjusts to try and hit that target. Computational price and energy costs don't factor in at all. If people bring more miners onto the network, the difficulty adjusts upwards to make it more difficult to find a block. If people take miners off of the network, the opposite happens.

That's what that estimation is based on. Might be off by a few years, but I still expect to be dead by the time 2120 happens and that's like a really harsh scenario.

Wakefield1
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Wakefield1 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:07 am

As far as I see it there are two ways to judge Bitcoin- as a vehicle for investment (Speculation?) looks negative to me (buy and holder vs. marketimer)

-as a way to pay for services,goods,monetary transactions (means of making payment) -maybe will be O.K. for that if the speculative fever levels out and the software bugs get worked out

Valuethinker
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:11 am

technovelist wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:57 am


Yes, in fact I knew one of the people who was worth 8 figures from the dotcom boom, and he told me that it was a good thing that his company had no earnings, because that way they didn't have a P/E ratio to worry about. :confused

He never sold, and I'm pretty sure he is in the one comma club now. :oops:
Bitcoin appears to offer the almost perfect combination of being really techy and complex AND

of being a volatile financial asset whose actual future is totally speculative.

Thus it attracts a certain "gold rush mindset" and a certain sort of punter. My experience has been that techie type people often try to see patterns where there are not, say for example in foreign exchange rates, and offer them a way to punt them, eg via spread-betting, and they are off. Index funds are just far, far too boring.

As ever, the smart money didn't post here, it got on the bandwagon early -- or took the negative reaction here as a sign that it was not yet too late ;-).

The office yesterday there was a lot of talk - everyone seemed to have a colleague or acquaintance who was punting in cryptocurrencies, or who had made a lot of money in cryptocurrencies.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

ensign_lee
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by ensign_lee » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:12 am

grayfox wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:16 am
BTW, I have no idea whether bitcoin blockchain can scale or not. It's far too complex for a layman to fully understand. Even the experts can't agree. There's another faction that disagrees with the Core Developers and says that bitcoin has no problem scaling. They have hard forked another version called Bitcoin Cash. They still believe in the original Satoshi idea, so Bitcoin Cash works more like the old bitcoin. They are going to scale on the block chain with bigger blocks.

It might make sense to diversify into both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Also, there are a bunch of other hard forks of bitcoin like Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Silver, Bitcoin Diamond, etc.
Also, just going to jump in here and say that you should 100% absolutely NOT get into bitcoin cash (bcash). There is no dev team there, and it is the plaything of Roger Ver and Jihan Wu. It is the exact opposite of a decentralized system, which is one of Bitcoin's main values.

Those actors have consistently acted in bad faith and have attacked the bitcoin network, and are trying to confuse people with the name even.

That all being said, if you REALLY wanted to get bitcoin cash for some reason, wait until the beginning of 2018. Coinbase, the largest bitcoin exchange in the US, is allowing customers to claim their bcash if they had bitcoin prior to the fork block in August. I would imagine most will sell, and this should create a supply/demand imbalance, i.e. cheaper bcash if you really want it.

wrongfunds
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by wrongfunds » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:09 pm

So basically, blocks are created, on average, about every 10 minutes. The difficulty always adjusts to try and hit that target. Computational price and energy costs don't factor in at all. If people bring more miners onto the network, the difficulty adjusts upwards to make it more difficult to find a block. If people take miners off of the network, the opposite happens.
So it is intentionally crippled but then they also worry about not being able to scale; I think I need a double head slap emoji for that, a single just does not do any justice.

jalbert
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by jalbert » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:20 pm

If you separate blockchain as an abstract paradigm from blockchain as the implementation of that paradigm, I think the correct statement is that the current implementation of blockchain is not very scalable.
Risk is not a guarantor of return.

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Epsilon Delta
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Epsilon Delta » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:45 pm

A global ledger is not scalable. I think a global ledger is an essential feature of Bitcoin, an implementation without a global ledger would be a different beast, without some of the good properties claimed for the current implementation.

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zonto
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by zonto » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:10 pm


MP123
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by MP123 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:12 pm

It seems to me that the physical size of the bitcoin blockchain itself is going to get to be a problem. Right now it's closing in on 150 gig (https://blockchain.info/charts/blocks-size?timespan=all). If it's really going to store every transaction for all time it will quickly become unmanageably large and require ever more expensive nodes to maintain it. That will reduce the number of nodes able to verify transactions and we'll end up back with one central computer running the whole thing.

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HomerJ
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by HomerJ » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:34 pm

Can they split it up like DNS/hosts file was split up?

sjwoo
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by sjwoo » Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:41 pm

vitaflo wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:38 pm
sjwoo wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:49 am
So bitcoin definitely is not like any country-backed currency since it has no country. It seems like it is more like gold in the way it acts, since gold itself really has very little applicable value; it is just a thing that lots of people have given worth to (personally, gold means nothing to me except for the fact that others consider it of value, that there's an overall shared mentality that it has value, and that it can be exchanged for stable currency).
Which is kind of my issue with it. If we take it as "the world's future currency" it's a joke because by definition it's a deflationary currency. This would be horrible to use as a general currency to pay for goods and services. If we take it as a store of value, ie digital gold, then I'm not sure all the hoopla is currently worth it unless you live in a place like Venezuela. For those that live in stable economies then I don't see the value.
So could it be said that investing in bitcoin is kind of like investing in extremely emerging economies? Or perhaps the criminal portions of those countries, even, since bitcoin can be fairly anonymous. Seen under these possibilities, this truly seems like speculation amped to the nth degree. Not my cup of tea.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by quaternion » Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:08 pm

happyisland wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:04 am
One thing I just cannot wrap my mind around is what the rough intrinsic value of a bitcoin should be. It is confusing that its price history is so incredibly volatile...
One measure would be the cost of the electricity required to mine a bitcoin on current hardware.

larrydmsn
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by larrydmsn » Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:20 pm

quaternion wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:08 pm
happyisland wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:04 am
One thing I just cannot wrap my mind around is what the rough intrinsic value of a bitcoin should be. It is confusing that its price history is so incredibly volatile...
One measure would be the cost of the electricity required to mine a bitcoin on current hardware.
That is the cost but I don't think that is the value. There are many things that require a lot of effort to create but are of no value at all.

fatlever
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by fatlever » Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:31 pm

zonto wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:10 pm
I found this article/video on Business Insider informative: Economist Jim Rickards on gold versus bitcoin — intrinsic value is meaningless for both but the bitcoin prices aren't real.
Yes, the guy with 100% certainty claims its a scam, a bubble, unsustainable, etc. Nothing new there.

On the other hand an interesting WSJ article the other day saying that a more serious danger is "bitcoin might not crash" and it might be a "precursor to it being widely used as an alternative to the dollar, it will threaten central banks' monopoly on money" if it can solve the scaling problem, etc.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-time ... 1512409004


ensign_lee
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by ensign_lee » Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:00 pm

larrydmsn wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:20 pm
quaternion wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:08 pm
happyisland wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:04 am
One thing I just cannot wrap my mind around is what the rough intrinsic value of a bitcoin should be. It is confusing that its price history is so incredibly volatile...
One measure would be the cost of the electricity required to mine a bitcoin on current hardware.
That is the cost but I don't think that is the value. There are many things that require a lot of effort to create but are of no value at all.
Yeah, that's a good point. I don't think "cost to create" is a good way to value it. You should instead value it on what you think it is worth in use.

I'll just reference my quote earlier in this thread for my quick, back of the envelope answer to "what is a bitcoin worth?"

You can play around with those assumptions and come up with your own intrinsic value (maybe you think the 5% assumption is bad. Maybe you think the 21M total supply is a bad assumption because you think X million coins have already been lost and out of circulation. Maybe you think the on average balance for each person is too high/low):
ensign_lee wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:02 am
Whether or not there is value there really depends on whether you think there is value in a currency that is non-inflationary and that is easy to send around the world.

21 million (the total capped supply of bitcoin) sounds like a large number, until you consider that there are 7 billion people in the world. My quick back of the envelope math whenever anyone asks what a bitcoin should be worth is thus:

7 billion people. Let's say 5% of the world wants bitcoin as either a transactional currency or a store of value, so that's 350M. And of that 5%, let's say on average, they want $1000 worth. That would imply a valuation of $16,666 (7B*.05*1000/21M), which we're not even at. And that's assuming that only 5% of the world ever wants to be involved with bitcoin.

Will it ever get to that hypothetical situation I described above? I don't know, we'll see. But that's the bet I've made by being in bitcoin. Adoption is rapidly increasing. The CME and NASDAQ are now getting involved, and it seems as though larger institutional investors are getting their feet wet.

jalbert
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by jalbert » Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:13 pm

Epsilon Delta wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:45 pm
A global ledger is not scalable.
What is the theoretical basis for any claim that there cannot be any possible design for a scalable global ledger?
Risk is not a guarantor of return.

quaternion
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by quaternion » Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:39 pm

ensign_lee wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:00 pm
larrydmsn wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:20 pm
quaternion wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:08 pm
happyisland wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:04 am
One thing I just cannot wrap my mind around is what the rough intrinsic value of a bitcoin should be. It is confusing that its price history is so incredibly volatile...
One measure would be the cost of the electricity required to mine a bitcoin on current hardware.
That is the cost but I don't think that is the value. There are many things that require a lot of effort to create but are of no value at all.
Yeah, that's a good point. I don't think "cost to create" is a good way to value it. You should instead value it on what you think it is worth in use.
The value I see in bitcoin is as an alternative to other transaction processing networks, e.g. ACH, Visa, Western Union, courier with a briefcase, etc. We pay Visa (/affiliated banks) ~3% to process transactions, so there's another data point.

Bitcoin has a slightly different fee structure in that traditional transaction fees are proportional to the transaction amount while bitcoin fees are proportional to the data size of the ledger entry, which (AFAICT) is logarithmic in the transaction amount. (That is, exchanging 1 million (10^6) bitcoin would incur a fee of ~6 times that of exchanging 1 bitcoin). So bitcoin may have an advantage for large transactions (modulo volatility).

Another "advantage" of bitcoin is that the decentralized nature of transaction processing lets the entities conducting the transaction avoid government oversight. Whether a mechanism for (more-or-less) anonymous, untraceable transactions translates to an advantage for society seems to depend on whether one agrees or disagrees with the relevant oversight. Still, I suppose we could measure this value to the individual based on the cost of the aforementioned cash courier; this is not a service whose price I have had (or hope to have) need to investigate.

Or, a better example could be transaction costs in nations without stable financial institutions (e.g., Venezuela).

Wakefield1
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Wakefield1 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:00 pm

I just noticed a feature talking about Bitcoin on the mass media news,featuring a bitcoin millionaire. So meeting another of the tests for a bubble,everyone is talking about it.
Too late for me to join,unless I want to help that bitcoin millionaire (at my expense) with my luck. :thumbsdown
(to its credit,the article did mention the warnings of Buffet and Dimon against "investing" in it.

edit: I believe features and mentions such as this will add more casual buyers and hence allow the price to rise further-but someday surely there will be a rush for the door (collect profits).
Last edited by Wakefield1 on Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

texas lawdog
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by texas lawdog » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:03 pm

It's interesting the number of companies that are willing to accept bitcoin as payment including Newegg, Overstock, Microsoft, Virgin, Expedia, Dish, etc.

Note the IRS treats Bitcoin as property rather than currency. Legally, you need to track the cost basis of your "property", then report that to the IRS every time you use it for a transaction. Technically, the IRS can require you to report every transaction you make with Bitcoin along with the associated capital gain / loss.

If the Fed wants to really shut down Bitcoin, they just call on the IRS to enforce the capital gains reporting - most taxpayers don't want to deal with that type of transactional reporting.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Iridium » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:31 pm

jalbert wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:13 pm
Epsilon Delta wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:45 pm
A global ledger is not scalable.
What is the theoretical basis for any claim that there cannot be any possible design for a scalable global ledger?
A single global ledger that keeps track of all transactions for all time will grow linearly with the number of transactions and will grow unbounded as time goes on (as data enters, but never leaves the ledger). In addition, validating transactions have a worst case that increases linearly with the number of transactions ever made (imagine if Satoshi spent some of his/her/their coins; a node validating the transaction would have to look backwards through the ledger all the way back to toward the beginning to be able to tell that the sending address was valid).

A bank can keep track of their accounts in a database that will grow linearly with the number of active accounts, update accounts in time that is a logarithm of the numbers of accounts and can delete the data soon after the account becomes inactive. So, their approach would use a tiny fraction of the resources of a Bitcoin equivalent, and the gulf will widen as time goes on and transaction rates increase. Thus, it scales better.

Now this leaves some pretty big loopholes:

1) Properly incentivized, the global ledger is still not a crazy amount of data. At 100 billion transactions per year (which is the order of magnitude that major processing networks handle) @ 300 bytes per transaction, you are talking about the ledger growing at 30 TB/year. While it is scary to think that in 10 years the ledger could grow to 300 TB, that might not be a terribly lot of data by 2027 standards (assuming continued technological progress). Relative to the massive resources spent mining, this is a relatively small technical problem. However, the BTC devs are very concerned with decentralizing the ledger and making it so that as many as possible can run 'full nodes' even though there is no economic incentive built-in to run nodes (I imagine the devs want most people who accept BTC directly [rather than through a wallet] to run a full node and do their own validation of incoming Bitcoins). So the devs have been trying to constrain the growth of the ledger so the resources are de minimus. The schism between BTC and Bitcoin Cash (and every scalability problem BTC has encountered so far) was about whether the ledger should be allowed to grow at 52 GB per year or 416 GB per year.

2) There may be a way to split up the ledger, so nodes only have to track a subset of transactions. This is part of Ethereum's roadmap. Like the point above, this requires a mechanism to ensure that nodes give trustworthy responses, as people would no longer verify incoming transactions against their own copy of the ledger.

3) One could hypothesize the creation of checkpoints, where the state of the block chain is compactly written out, and everything prior to the checkpoint can be deleted. I have not seen any efforts along these lines. The savings might not be enormous given the number of addresses, whose values would have to be written out. How the checkpoint would be trusted is another problem.

Ledgers will always use more resources than a simple database of account values, because a ledger has more information (not just the current state, but the entire history). Between the ledger and duplicating work massive numbers of times, Blockchain is a pretty inefficient way of doing things relative to an environment where you can trust some parties. However, in my uneducated opinion, blockchain, as a technology, can scale up to payment networks levels, but with some pretty huge shifts in how people think about nodes. Given that Bitcoin Core has put all their chips into off-chain payment channels, they seem to have punted on the scalability problem and are trying to make an end run around it by positioning the BTC blockchain as a place for occasional reconciliation, rather than a place where transactions actually take place. This might work, except that Lightning Network is still not ready, so the next several months are going to be challenging, as BTC simply cannot handle the volume of transactions that it needs to.

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curiouskitty
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by curiouskitty » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:53 am

grayfox wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:27 pm
curiouskitty wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:55 am

Everyone always talks about the high transaction fees of Bitcoin and they are high compared to the other coins. But the speed vs. cost of all the coins that I've used are still much better than the banking system. No non-"business days", no $35 wire fee, no Western Union, etc. The only thing that competes is Transferwise. As a test, I just sent a few dollars in Bitcoin with the fee set to $0.07. Lets see how long it takes to transfer.
What was the fee rate in satoshis/Byte?

At 1 BTC = $11,000, 1 satoshi = $0.00011, so $0.07 would be about 636 satoshi.
If your transaction was 200 Bytes, that would be about 3 sat/Byte.
Does that sound about right?

Looking at Mempool over past 3 months, the light-blue is 2-5 sat/B. It looks like back on Oct 26, the Mempool got mostly emptied out, including the 2-5 satoshi/Byte transactions. It appears that occasionally the low-fee transactions start getting cleared out. I wonder what causes that dynamic behavior? Change in Difficulty or Hash Power? External events?

Right now, the Mempool about 20,000 unconfirmed transactions paying a fee of 5+ sat/B, so they would get confirmed before your transaction at 3 sat/B. Then there is another 10,000 at 2+ sat/B. :arrow: I am going to guess that it will take a few weeks for your transaction to get confirmed. It will sit there with all the other 2-5 sat/B transactions, until something happens that allows the Mempool to get cleared.

:?: I'm interested in how this works out. Please keep us posted on the outcome of this experiment. If you can, provide a link to the transaction on Block Explorer when it gets into a block.
Yes I will be the last one to drain :P

It'll be a little while but I'll try to remember to update when it confirms

You can see it in the meantime anyway at https://blockchain.info/tx/584738a02dda ... 4744a7c4c3

You were mostly right except my message is larger and fee is only 1 sat/Byte

I'm hoping less than a month hehe

Swelfie
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Swelfie » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:13 am

Iridium wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:31 pm
jalbert wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:13 pm
Epsilon Delta wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:45 pm
A global ledger is not scalable.
What is the theoretical basis for any claim that there cannot be any possible design for a scalable global ledger?
A single global ledger that keeps track of all transactions for all time will grow linearly with the number of transactions and will grow unbounded as time goes on (as data enters, but never leaves the ledger). In addition, validating transactions have a worst case that increases linearly with the number of transactions ever made (imagine if Satoshi spent some of his/her/their coins; a node validating the transaction would have to look backwards through the ledger all the way back to toward the beginning to be able to tell that the sending address was valid).
This latter assumption is untrue. For a full evaluation of consistency, with the original blockchain design the cost of look back is done once and amortized over all new validations performed by the node over it's lifespan. New validations are performed in constant time with appropriate data structures. And at the tip it is sublinear growth to transaction size because only spendable transactions must be tracked, depleted addresses that have been validated can be purged.
Iridium wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:31 pm
A bank can keep track of their accounts in a database that will grow linearly with the number of active accounts, update accounts in time that is a logarithm of the numbers of accounts and can delete the data soon after the account becomes inactive. So, their approach would use a tiny fraction of the resources of a Bitcoin equivalent, and the gulf will widen as time goes on and transaction rates increase. Thus, it scales better.
Both true and untrue based on flawed assumptions. Yes, banks scale better. This has more to do with them needing to deal with corruption of data as their primary concern rather than data being advesarial, allowing more efficient check pointing. Crypto currencies likewise can purge much of their data. They can even do this globally and delete their own ledger's tail completely, although this is uncommon (Byteball is an example of one such ledger.)
Iridium wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:31 pm
Now this leaves some pretty big loopholes:

1) Properly incentivized, the global ledger is still not a crazy amount of data. At 100 billion transactions per year (which is the order of magnitude that major processing networks handle) @ 300 bytes per transaction, you are talking about the ledger growing at 30 TB/year. While it is scary to think that in 10 years the ledger could grow to 300 TB, that might not be a terribly lot of data by 2027 standards (assuming continued technological progress). Relative to the massive resources spent mining, this is a relatively small technical problem. However, the BTC devs are very concerned with decentralizing the ledger and making it so that as many as possible can run 'full nodes' even though there is no economic incentive built-in to run nodes (I imagine the devs want most people who accept BTC directly [rather than through a wallet] to run a full node and do their own validation of incoming Bitcoins). So the devs have been trying to constrain the growth of the ledger so the resources are de minimus. The schism between BTC and Bitcoin Cash (and every scalability problem BTC has encountered so far) was about whether the ledger should be allowed to grow at 52 GB per year or 416 GB per year.
Pedantically, the schism was about whether the ledger should be allowed to grow at 52GB per year, or AS NEEDED up to a cap of 416GB/year. That's an important distinction because currently the chain does not grow by 416GB/yr under any scenario except inventivization of valueless transactions which no sane party is considering.
Iridium wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:31 pm
2) There may be a way to split up the ledger, so nodes only have to track a subset of transactions. This is part of Ethereum's roadmap. Like the point above, this requires a mechanism to ensure that nodes give trustworthy responses, as people would no longer verify incoming transactions against their own copy of the ledger.
This last part is not correct. People would still verify against their relevant chain. Cross chain movement would have a proof to transfer legitimacy to the new chain, then movement within that chain would still have full verifiability. Trusted nodes are not part of Ethereum's plans. Other scaling techniques, such as that used by Dash, do use some node trustability, but most currencies have rejected this as a mechanism, at least at the base layer, due to concerns about centralization.
Iridium wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:31 pm
3) One could hypothesize the creation of checkpoints, where the state of the block chain is compactly written out, and everything prior to the checkpoint can be deleted. I have not seen any efforts along these lines. The savings might not be enormous given the number of addresses, whose values would have to be written out. How the checkpoint would be trusted is another problem.
This is the primary means of scalability most coins are pursuing, although they are pursuing all of the above. This is already implemented to an extent in Ethereum, Bitcoin and others. The scale of reduction is enormous with some schemes, up to eliminating the entire blockchain and replacing it with an irrefutable proof that it was indeed valid when it was known (again, see Byteball as an extreme example). As a trivial example, you can envision any hard fork as a checkpoint. The game theory of mining will show that the rule change was valid at the point of fork which is itself a kind of checkpoint. This can even roll back the chain significantly through economic incentive (see the ETH-ETC split or the Bitcoin overflow bug fork). The chain that the economy follows will inevitably be verifiable chain even if the rules to verify it need to change because the utility of the chain is what brings the value and the value is what the miners verify because they don't want to pay massive amounts of capital to remain ideologically pure and be compensated in worthless tokens. If the tokens don't remain worthless due to a true economic schism, then both will be mined (ETH/ETC, BTC/BCH/BTG for examples)
Iridium wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:31 pm
Ledgers will always use more resources than a simple database of account values, because a ledger has more information (not just the current state, but the entire history). Between the ledger and duplicating work massive numbers of times, Blockchain is a pretty inefficient way of doing things relative to an environment where you can trust some parties. However, in my uneducated opinion, blockchain, as a technology, can scale up to payment networks levels, but with some pretty huge shifts in how people think about nodes. Given that Bitcoin Core has put all their chips into off-chain payment channels, they seem to have punted on the scalability problem and are trying to make an end run around it by positioning the BTC blockchain as a place for occasional reconciliation, rather than a place where transactions actually take place. This might work, except that Lightning Network is still not ready, so the next several months are going to be challenging, as BTC simply cannot handle the volume of transactions that it needs to.
Off chain is needed to achieve feature parity with VISA and it's not all about scale. There is speed (millisecond transactions aren't feasible on any blockchain) and revokeability for instance which are both useful in some circumstances (although revokeability can be achieved with smart contracts rather than off chain.) And Bitcoin can easily handle it's current volume if it's miners simply process it. There is just fear by the miners that the Bitcoin market does not WANT it processed and that if they did the market would reject it and they would not be compensated for their mining.

There was an interesting Bitcoin feasibility study released just a couple weeks ago on stress testing Bitcoin to VISA level scale on today's commodity servers with Bitcoin's current design and although they were not able to do so, the interesting thing they found was that they were not able to find a reason in the design why it couldn't be done without checkpoints, shards, etc. The bottlenecks they found were all in current implementation flaws such as unnecessary serialization. They have fixed some of these and are in the process of fixing others and plan to ramp up their tests once the flaws are corrected in order to know more, but it is feasible that the current design might actually get us there without augmentation of the protocol or inevitable advances in hardware capacity.

And finally, what is most humorously interesting is that the largest real world scaling challenge yet faced by any blockchain by far is currently in progress involving collectible cartoon cats being traded. Because you can't make this stuff up, no one would believe you! :sharebeer

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Slothmeister » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:13 am

It's no Ponzi scam, but neither was the Pet Rock.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by cjking » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:35 am

I think there have been some people on the thread who have argued the merits of bitcoin. However, without going back to check, I reckon most claimed merits could apply to most cryptocurrencies anyone might decide to invent. All bitcoin has going for it is being first. That might count for a lot, if cryptocurrency value only ever depended on collective confidence, but who would prefer bitcoin to a credible asset-backed cryptocurrency? If the Federal Reserve issued cryptodollars that could be redeemed one-for-one with the usual kind, or the Bank of England issued cryptopounds that could be redeemed similarly, if all the reserve banks of the world issued cryptogold backed by their actual reserves, in that world would bitcoin still have any value?

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:42 am

cjking wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:35 am
I think there have been some people on the thread who have argued the merits of bitcoin. However, without going back to check, I reckon most claimed merits could apply to most cryptocurrencies anyone might decide to invent. All bitcoin has going for it is being first. That might count for a lot, if cryptocurrency value only ever depended on collective confidence, but who would prefer bitcoin to a credible asset-backed cryptocurrency? If the Federal Reserve issued cryptodollars that could be redeemed one-for-one with the usual kind, or the Bank of England issued cryptopounds that could be redeemed similarly, if all the reserve banks of the world issued cryptogold backed by their actual reserves, in that world would bitcoin still have any value?
The argument is made that the original bitcoin has a hard limit of 21 million. Subtract off "lost" bitcoins, factor in the increasing difficulty of generating new ones, the effective actual supply is perhaps 17 million? Less?

So that's clearly an attraction if you are a believer in the concept. No Central Bank can just inflate you away.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by cjking » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:54 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:42 am
The argument is made that the original bitcoin has a hard limit of 21 million. Subtract off "lost" bitcoins, factor in the increasing difficulty of generating new ones, the effective actual supply is perhaps 17 million? Less?

So that's clearly an attraction if you are a believer in the concept. No Central Bank can just inflate you away.
So, if that worries you, you'd use CryptoGold instead. Or maybe (if American) CryptoTIPS. Your asset-backed cryptocurrency of choice could be inflationary or deflationary. (An asset-backed currency also has credit risk, so you might prefer Cryptogold issued by Bank of England to that issued by North Korea.)

If, for some reason, you were going to hold a lot of cryptocurrency for decades, maybe you would (if American) hold CryptoTSM, redeemable with Vanguard.

For myself, I think I'd only hold a cryptocurrency in the amounts and for the time needed to buy some small item on ebay, at a discount to the Paypal price. A cryptopound issued by the Bank of England would be fine for that. It wouldn't really increase my exposure to UK inflation from that I already have as a result of my bank balance.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by cjking » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:03 am

Actually, if there were a plethora of asset-backed cryptocurrencies, then presumably I could have bank-account denominated in one of them. I could pay my electricity bill from a bank account denominated in CPI_adjusted_cryptopounds, for example.

Governments issue inflation-linked bonds, so why not issue inflation-linked cryptocurrencies? (Other than maybe it's not in their interest, I haven't thought this through, I'm making it up as I go along. :happy )

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by rmelvey » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:04 am

cjking wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:35 am
I think there have been some people on the thread who have argued the merits of bitcoin. However, without going back to check, I reckon most claimed merits could apply to most cryptocurrencies anyone might decide to invent. All bitcoin has going for it is being first. That might count for a lot, if cryptocurrency value only ever depended on collective confidence, but who would prefer bitcoin to a credible asset-backed cryptocurrency? If the Federal Reserve issued cryptodollars that could be redeemed one-for-one with the usual kind, or the Bank of England issued cryptopounds that could be redeemed similarly, if all the reserve banks of the world issued cryptogold backed by their actual reserves, in that world would bitcoin still have any value?
Cryptodollars would be useful for traders, but would make a poor long term holding due to inflation. I think the introduction of cryptodollars would make the bitcoin market even stronger. The most annoying part about bitcoin right now is dealing with the fiat, trading crypto to crypto is much easier.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by cjking » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:27 am

rmelvey wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:04 am

Cryptodollars would be useful for traders, but would make a poor long term holding due to inflation. I think the introduction of cryptodollars would make the bitcoin market even stronger. The most annoying part about bitcoin right now is dealing with the fiat, trading crypto to crypto is much easier.
Yes, cryptodollars should only be held in small quantities to facilitate short-term spending. I have exactly the same policy with regard to non-crypto real currencies at the moment, for the same reason.

Having said that, I think I've now come to the conclusion that the logical end-result of wide-spread implementation of asset-backed cryptocurrencies is that the dollar as we know it gets replaced by a new fiat currency that is guaranteed to hold its value according to some official measure of inflation. (Which shifts the problem to whether you trust the government to measure inflation.)

I don't get why, in a world with hundreds of asset-backed currencies issued by various governments and institutions, you think bitcoin would be stronger rather than weaker. I gather cryptocurrency purists don't like the idea of asset-backed currencies, but I suspect there's going to turn out to be a difference between what a cryptogeek thinks is important, and what the average on-line currency user wants.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by ensign_lee » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:29 am

cjking wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:35 am
I think there have been some people on the thread who have argued the merits of bitcoin. However, without going back to check, I reckon most claimed merits could apply to most cryptocurrencies anyone might decide to invent. All bitcoin has going for it is being first. That might count for a lot, if cryptocurrency value only ever depended on collective confidence, but who would prefer bitcoin to a credible asset-backed cryptocurrency? If the Federal Reserve issued cryptodollars that could be redeemed one-for-one with the usual kind, or the Bank of England issued cryptopounds that could be redeemed similarly, if all the reserve banks of the world issued cryptogold backed by their actual reserves, in that world would bitcoin still have any value?
You're right in one respect. A CryptoUSD for instance, would probably have a lot of initial support from people not familiar with crypto.

With a centralized cryptoUSD backed by the Federal Reserve, a singular entity, how do I know they're not just going to create more though? With bitcoin, it's totally decentralized - and it's not in our best interests to make more. With the Federal Reserve, their raison d'etre is to try and control the money supply, so why wouldn't they change the amounts of CryptoUSD? Now we're back to dollars.

And if I don't believe that the supply of cryptoUSD is fixed? Why am I in it?

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by cjking » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:42 am

See my various previous posts above. Inflation is not a problem if you are holding small amounts for a short time to facilitate spending, so the cryptodollar should be a perfectly fine currency for on-line purchases, in a world where the dollar as we know it still exists.

However the possibility of creating a plethora of currencies which are actually better than the dollar may mean the dollar goes out of fashion.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Epsilon Delta » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:16 am

Swelfie wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:13 am

Pedantically, the schism was about whether the ledger should be allowed to grow at 52GB per year, or AS NEEDED up to a cap of 416GB/year. That's an important distinction because currently the chain does not grow by 416GB/yr under any scenario except inventivization of valueless transactions which no sane party is considering.
It grows by more than that if many people actually use it as a currency. If people use smart contracts it gets worse. Are you arguing that people using Bitcoin for transactions is valueless? At the very least this is not planning for success (i.e. wide spread use as a currency).

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Swelfie » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:53 am

Epsilon Delta wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:16 am
Swelfie wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:13 am

Pedantically, the schism was about whether the ledger should be allowed to grow at 52GB per year, or AS NEEDED up to a cap of 416GB/year. That's an important distinction because currently the chain does not grow by 416GB/yr under any scenario except inventivization of valueless transactions which no sane party is considering.
It grows by more than that if many people actually use it as a currency. If people use smart contracts it gets worse. Are you arguing that people using Bitcoin for transactions is valueless? At the very least this is not planning for success (i.e. wide spread use as a currency).
I'm just saying the demand is not to that level at this time. Yes, if people were doing transactions to this level consistently and 8 MB blocks were backlogging the way 1 MB Blocks are, it would.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by jalbert » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:28 am

Risk is not a guarantor of return.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:58 am

cjking wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:42 am
See my various previous posts above. Inflation is not a problem if you are holding small amounts for a short time to facilitate spending, so the cryptodollar should be a perfectly fine currency for on-line purchases, in a world where the dollar as we know it still exists.

However the possibility of creating a plethora of currencies which are actually better than the dollar may mean the dollar goes out of fashion.
Hard to see, unless:

- the US somehow imposes controls on circulation of dollars outside its borders or takes steps which give it a large current account surplus

- the USD experiences very high inflation

- if there is significant deflation in the USD that might also work because USD might become quite scarce (people would hoard them if their value was rising)

One can imagine a world where the Google dollar, or the Facebook dollar, becomes widely used-- you'd need someone with that scale to drive it through.

I can see why cryptocurrencies are disruptive of conventional banking, but it's harder to see them disrupting the Unit of Account function of the US Dollar. If we look at the last great transition (from GBP to USD):

- it didn't just happen in the summer of 1914, it took a long time (say into the 1930s)
- it accompanied Britain's retreat from Empire and relative decline of its economy relative to USA
- it accompanied 2 of the most devastating wars in human history, where Great Britain was literally bankrupted-- turned from the world's largest debtor nation to perhaps its' largest creditor nation

Granted things happen faster in an internet-enabled world.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by supaflix » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:28 am

ensign_lee wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:12 am
grayfox wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:16 am
BTW, I have no idea whether bitcoin blockchain can scale or not. It's far too complex for a layman to fully understand. Even the experts can't agree. There's another faction that disagrees with the Core Developers and says that bitcoin has no problem scaling. They have hard forked another version called Bitcoin Cash. They still believe in the original Satoshi idea, so Bitcoin Cash works more like the old bitcoin. They are going to scale on the block chain with bigger blocks.

It might make sense to diversify into both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Also, there are a bunch of other hard forks of bitcoin like Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Silver, Bitcoin Diamond, etc.
Also, just going to jump in here and say that you should 100% absolutely NOT get into bitcoin cash (bcash). There is no dev team there, and it is the plaything of Roger Ver and Jihan Wu. It is the exact opposite of a decentralized system, which is one of Bitcoin's main values.

Those actors have consistently acted in bad faith and have attacked the bitcoin network, and are trying to confuse people with the name even.

That all being said, if you REALLY wanted to get bitcoin cash for some reason, wait until the beginning of 2018. Coinbase, the largest bitcoin exchange in the US, is allowing customers to claim their bcash if they had bitcoin prior to the fork block in August. I would imagine most will sell, and this should create a supply/demand imbalance, i.e. cheaper bcash if you really want it.
Agree with you wholeheartedly regarding bcash. The bcash market has been cornered which has lead to multiple pump/dumps of its price. Avoid it like the plague.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by grayfox » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:30 am

Of course there are fans of various cryptocurrency. Some people have faith in Bitcoin, some like Etherium, others believe in Bitcoin Cash. I have only tried two cryptos: Bitcoin and Litecoin. Only Litecoin was useful for me. Bitcoin was not useful. That was my experience.

But nobody knows which of the current batch of cryptocurrencies is going to succeed. For anyone putting a serious amount of money in, the prudent thing to do would be to diversify. How bad would you feel if you strongly believe in the idea of cryptocurrency but bet on the wrong one?

Now it would be impractical to invest in all 1300+ listed on coinmarketcap.com. But I would consider investing in the Top 5 or Top 10 by market cap:

Code: Select all

#	Name	Symbol	Market Cap	Price	Circulating Supply	Volume (24h)	% 1h	% 24h	% 7d

1	Bitcoin	BTC	$270,271,418,039	$16,158.70	16,726,062	$15,518,500,000	3.14%	24.73%	65.79%
2	Ethereum	ETH	$41,668,370,230	$433.18	96,191,592	$2,202,440,000	0.94%	-2.59%	1.61%
3	Bitcoin Cash	BCH	$22,604,487,675	$1,342.11	16,842,500	$1,273,630,000	-1.39%	-9.05%	2.80%
4	IOTA	MIOTA	$10,581,505,016	$3.81	2,779,530,283 *	$1,388,020,000	-2.55%	-8.45%	205.65%
5	Ripple	XRP	$8,764,731,558	$0.226250	38,739,145,009 *	$270,251,000	-1.80%	-6.50%	-5.49%
6	Dash	DASH	$5,285,069,058	$682.92	7,738,906	$241,694,000	-1.67%	-5.70%	-9.46%
7	Litecoin	LTC	$5,204,425,203	$96.06	54,176,983	$585,945,000	-2.01%	-5.19%	16.00%
8	Bitcoin Gold	BTG	$4,466,652,541	$267.57	16,693,149	$138,422,000	-1.51%	-8.39%	-6.33%
9	Monero	XMR	$4,270,276,788	$276.42	15,448,621	$319,271,000	-1.01%	-9.16%	62.64%
10	Cardano	ADA	$2,978,061,103	$0.114863	25,927,070,538 *	$72,707,700	-3.64%	-4.09%	6.05%
Gott mit uns.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by technovelist » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:48 am

grayfox wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:30 am
Of course there are fans of various cryptocurrency. Some people have faith in Bitcoin, some like Etherium, others believe in Bitcoin Cash. I have only tried two cryptos: Bitcoin and Litecoin. Only Litecoin was useful for me. Bitcoin was not useful.

But nobody knows which of the current batch of cryptocurrencies is going to succeed. For anyone putting a serious amount of money in, the prudent thing to do would be to diversify. How bad would you feel if you strongly believe in the idea of cryptocurrency but bet on the wrong one?

Now it would be impractical to invest in all 1300+ listed on coinmarketcap.com. But I would consider investing in the Top 5 or Top 10 by market cap:

Code: Select all

#	Name	Symbol	Market Cap	Price	Circulating Supply	Volume (24h)	% 1h	% 24h	% 7d

1	Bitcoin	BTC	$270,271,418,039	$16,158.70	16,726,062	$15,518,500,000	3.14%	24.73%	65.79%
2	Ethereum	ETH	$41,668,370,230	$433.18	96,191,592	$2,202,440,000	0.94%	-2.59%	1.61%
3	Bitcoin Cash	BCH	$22,604,487,675	$1,342.11	16,842,500	$1,273,630,000	-1.39%	-9.05%	2.80%
4	IOTA	MIOTA	$10,581,505,016	$3.81	2,779,530,283 *	$1,388,020,000	-2.55%	-8.45%	205.65%
5	Ripple	XRP	$8,764,731,558	$0.226250	38,739,145,009 *	$270,251,000	-1.80%	-6.50%	-5.49%
6	Dash	DASH	$5,285,069,058	$682.92	7,738,906	$241,694,000	-1.67%	-5.70%	-9.46%
7	Litecoin	LTC	$5,204,425,203	$96.06	54,176,983	$585,945,000	-2.01%	-5.19%	16.00%
8	Bitcoin Gold	BTG	$4,466,652,541	$267.57	16,693,149	$138,422,000	-1.51%	-8.39%	-6.33%
9	Monero	XMR	$4,270,276,788	$276.42	15,448,621	$319,271,000	-1.01%	-9.16%	62.64%
10	Cardano	ADA	$2,978,061,103	$0.114863	25,927,070,538 *	$72,707,700	-3.64%	-4.09%	6.05%
There are already 1300+ cryptocurrencies?

So much for the theory that they are valuable because of the permanently limited supply. :mrgreen:
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by HomerJ » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:17 am

ensign_lee wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:29 am
And if I don't believe that the supply of cryptoUSD is fixed? Why am I in it?
Why is it useful that the supply of bitcoin is fixed? Has that made it LESS volatile? It dropped 20% in one day. The fact that the U.S. government can print more dollars hasn't caused that many issues. 2%-3% annual inflation certainly is easier to deal with than daily fluctuations of bitcoin.

What problem is bitcoin trying to solve here?

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by jharkin » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:23 am

[apologies if this was already posted]


Incidentally this just poped up on my news feed - a theory that bitcoin may come crashing down for phyisical infrastructure reasons. and soon.

http://grist.org/article/bitcoin-could- ... gy-future/

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by schmitz » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:29 pm

wasnt sure if I should make a new thread but im trying to register at coin base and had a question:

to link my bank account to a coin base account they are asking me to give them by bank account username and password - is this safe? did anyone else have to do this?

edit: they say there is an option for "other bank" to avoid having to do this but I cannot find this link anywhere.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by LukeHeinz57 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:41 pm

Yeah, I did it and think it is fine. If you are comfortable giving it to a site like mint.com same thing here. After reading this thread and others on Bogleheads last week I bought in a small amount (.14% of my Net Worth) at $11,500 and already took some profits today at $17,500. :shock: :moneybag Pure speculation and ridiculous, this is not investing it is gambling, but man is it fun! :sharebeer
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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by letsgobobby » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:47 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:17 am
ensign_lee wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:29 am
And if I don't believe that the supply of cryptoUSD is fixed? Why am I in it?
Why is it useful that the supply of bitcoin is fixed? Has that made it LESS volatile? It dropped 20% in one day. The fact that the U.S. government can print more dollars hasn't caused that many issues. 2%-3% annual inflation certainly is easier to deal with than daily fluctuations of bitcoin.

What problem is bitcoin trying to solve here?
If I wanted to move $1,000,000 without anyone knowing about it, I would definitely not use USD. I might use a piece of artwork, cocaine, or Bitcoins. The possible uses are endless. I have no idea what the fair value is and frankly think it could be $1000 or $1,000,000 or any other number. I can’t imagine holding Bitcoins for more than a short term transaction; it’s definitely not an ‘investment’ just as ‘the dollar’ is not an investment.

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Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by HomerJ » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:11 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:47 pm
If I wanted to move $1,000,000 without anyone knowing about it, I would definitely not use USD.
Sure whatever. I get that. Criminals like bitcoin.

What OTHER uses does it have that makes it superior to just using dollars?

queso
Posts: 387
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by queso » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:29 pm

schmitz wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:29 pm
wasnt sure if I should make a new thread but im trying to register at coin base and had a question:

to link my bank account to a coin base account they are asking me to give them by bank account username and password - is this safe? did anyone else have to do this?

edit: they say there is an option for "other bank" to avoid having to do this but I cannot find this link anywhere.
You can immediately alter your bank credentials after you finish setting up the link. Bank transfers still work and you will feel (somewhat) better knowing that you changed your credentials since signup.

letsgobobby
Posts: 10690
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:10 am

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Post by letsgobobby » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:42 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:11 pm
letsgobobby wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:47 pm
If I wanted to move $1,000,000 without anyone knowing about it, I would definitely not use USD.
Sure whatever. I get that. Criminals like bitcoin.

What OTHER uses does it have that makes it superior to just using dollars?
It's not just criminals, it's anyone who values privacy. The market is extremely large. Transfer is also outside the usual intermediaries which provides a threat to governments and institutions looking to tax or gain fee income on the transfer. You dismiss these advantages as insignificant but they aren't. Cryptocurrencies IF STABLE AND SAFE could supplant the role of the USD as the reserve currency. Of course those are big ifs. But it is why I would never bet against Bitcoin. There really is no way to predict what it is worth. I also would never invest in Bitcoin, for the same reason.

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