2017 hedge fund contest

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:42 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:Tanelorn, please sell my position in SRPT as of closing price today 7/20. Commonwealth of Buckaroo Dough Holdings has bounced in and out of the top ten and wants to stay there this time. I'm risking that it might tank by the end of the day, but this is a very risky hedge fund causing share holders a lot of anxiety.
Congratulations and welcome back to the top ranks! I will lock in the 7/20 closing price of $40.93 for SRPT.

GoldenFinch's sole biotech pick Serepta Thereputics soared on Thursday when quarterly earnings showed 50% higher sales than expected and guided for continuing higher revenues going forward. The company's very expensive MS drug was controversial at $500k/year in cost, but was approved by the FDA (in a controversial process as well), and is showing quite good health outcomes for patients.

Her fund is now comfortably in the money, with 36% returns for the year and currently in 2nd place overall. She and her Buckaroo investors can spend the rest of the year enjoying their success and looking for / forward to her next big winner for the 2018 contest.

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

Fund manager themesrob was the only other contestant to chose Serepta, which is among three drug company long picks in his Rozay Advisors portfolio for this year. His more diversified portfolio continues to hold SRPT, which notched up additional gains on Friday (up 44% currently YTD, vs 36% on Thursday). Rozay Advisors are up 11% for the year.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:49 pm

dougger5 wrote:Middle Branch Multiflora Rose Capital Thorn Fund
The market goes up, the market goes down, but Rosa Multiflora grows on. Trust The Bramble®

LONG
UTX - United Technologies Corp
JEC - Jacobs Engineering Corp
GD - General Dynamics

SHORT
RHT - Red Hat Software
SCAI - Surgical Care Affiliates
As a belated bookkeeping note, SCAI was acquired by UnitedHealth Group back in late March for a mix of cash and UNH stock. I cashed out the stock portion as of the merger closing date and closed out the position. It was about $56 worth; see the spreadsheet for details.

https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemo ... %3A15%3A27
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 877d8k.htm
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:02 pm

I know many of you have had your ups and downs in the market and I wanted to give you a way to visualize that. After some tweaking, the spreadsheet now includes a link to the performance of each fund's basket of stocks and their YTD performance compared to the S&P.

If you click on the name of the fund, it should link to a chart like this one, jdb's tech oriented fund currently in 3rd place for example:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advcha ... e&state=15

The black line is the market (SPY) and all the other colored ones are your stock picks. Of course you want your long picks to be up and shorts (if any) to be down, but at least you can see how it's going. For reference, the first names in the chart legend are the longs, followed by the shorts last. If something weird happened to one of your stocks (merger, halted, split, etc), the chart might omit that one or do something else odd but it should work for almost everyone. Give it a try!

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

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dougger5
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by dougger5 » Sun Jul 23, 2017 1:42 am

Tanelorn wrote:
dougger5 wrote:Middle Branch Multiflora Rose Capital Thorn Fund
The market goes up, the market goes down, but Rosa Multiflora grows on. Trust The Bramble®

LONG
UTX - United Technologies Corp
JEC - Jacobs Engineering Corp
GD - General Dynamics

SHORT
RHT - Red Hat Software
SCAI - Surgical Care Affiliates
As a belated bookkeeping note, SCAI was acquired by UnitedHealth Group back in late March for a mix of cash and UNH stock. I cashed out the stock portion as of the merger closing date and closed out the position. It was about $56 worth; see the spreadsheet for details.

https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemo ... %3A15%3A27
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 877d8k.htm
Thanks Tan :beer
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:45 am

Tanelorn wrote:I know many of you have had your ups and downs in the market and I wanted to give you a way to visualize that. After some tweaking, the spreadsheet now includes a link to the performance of each fund's basket of stocks and their YTD performance compared to the S&P.
That's great insight. :beer

Ladies First is composed of 2 stocks, 1 long and 1 short. They mirrored each other perfectly. When one zigged, the other zagged - at the same time but in opposite directions. :shock:

My Quality Assurance team has discovered a sign-flip bug in the fund selection algorithm. It will be corrected in time for next year's contest.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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hornet96
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by hornet96 » Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:12 pm

LadyGeek wrote:Ladies First is composed of 2 stocks, 1 long and 1 short. They mirrored each other perfectly. When one zigged, the other zagged - at the same time but in opposite directions. :shock:
Excellent - perhaps you should rename your fund, "Ladies First Synthetic Cash Fund?" Then, you could tell your investors that your fund is beating the online savings account market benchmark by a few bps (before expenses, of course). :) :beer

Mudpuppy
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Mudpuppy » Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:36 pm

I just wanted to take a moment to thank Tanelorn for all the hard work being put into maintaining this year's hedge fund contest. Thank you for taking up the banner!

GoldenFinch
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jul 27, 2017 5:32 pm

^^^^^Yes, thank you Tanelorn for all you do! It looks like a lot of work. I really like reading all the research insights you write about the stocks in people's funds.

:sharebeer

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Jul 29, 2017 11:28 pm

HurdyGurdy wrote:"Make those yachts great again"

Long: TWTR, TACO, HLT

Short: BBBY, RAI
HurdyGurdy - Reynolds American (RAI) was taken over this week in a cash and stock deal by British American Tobacco (BPI). Here were the details:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reynolds ... 02862.html
https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemo ... %3A21%3A53

If you don't have a strong preference, I will cash out the position at the merger value as of the 7/25 closing date. However, given the buyer is a very similar company and it's a majority stock deal, if you want to keep the position as a stock pick, I'll make the appropriate adjustments. Please let me know in the next couple days or I'll cash it out by default.

GoldenFinch and Mudpuppy - thank you for the encouragement!

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:27 pm

I heard from HurdyGurdy and per his request have closed out his short RIA position as of the merger discussed above - see the spreadsheet for details.

In other news for those short unusual situations, the WINS drama continues with the majority owner of the company successfully selling his 2/3 stake in WINS to a dubious Hong Kong company for just under $20/share. As a reminder, the stock is currently halted and last traded just over $200/share roughly two months ago. We will just have to wait and see if Nasdaq decides to let their shares resume trading at some point, hopefully before the conclusion of our annual contest.

Here are the current standings:

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:28 am

With Tanelorn and GoldenFinch holding steady in first and second respectively, there is still a close contest for the next couple places. Jdb's big tech themed fund (Google, Amazon, Tesla) currently barely edging out McGilicutty with about 28% each in 3rd/4th. SnottyPie and inbox788 are similarly close at about 25% in 5th/6th.

On the downside, quantAndHold's fund shows some of the risks of a long/short approach, in particular that you can face very substantial losses on the short side when a stock moves up dramatically. His fund made short bets against three troubled medical related companies. In particular, Dynavax (DVAX), a biotech company working on a Hep B vaccine, has increased by nearly 4 fold from the start of the year as the FDA issued a much more promising preliminary assessment of their results than had been expected (although final approval is still pending). DVAX has increased from $4.25 initially to over $16 currently, nearly a 300% loss. At least with long stock investing, all you can lose is 100%.

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:14 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:24 pm
Emeralds wrote:Liquidate my long position in SDRL please

NeXtGen Partners
Done at today's close, $0.70. It's hard to take an 80% loss, but FWIW I think you probably made the right choice. It's looking more and more like a bankruptcy or restructuring is in the cards for them, and the equity holders will be lucky to get much if anything if it goes that way.
And today Seadrill announced they intend to seek bankruptcy protection next month (Sept) and the stock is down to $0.18, 75% lower than where you sold. Good choice.

in other news on things you wish you were short, WINS is facing a delisting hearing with Nasdaq over misrepresenting the number of shareholders they had when they went public. Having at least several hundred different unrelated shareholders is one requirement for a stock to get listed, so there's a question of if they fudged this by giving out stock to the execs' relatives (which wouldn't count). The company is appealing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hoo.hosted
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wins-fin ... 00367.html
Nasdaq said Wins doesn’t meet regulations requiring it to have at least 300 shareholders who own 100 shares. The exchange’s decision was also based on "the making of alleged misrepresentations by the company relating to the 300 round-lot shareholder requirement," as well as public interest concerns, Wins said in a statement Wednesday.
Once the appeal is done, which shouldn't take more than another couple months one way or the other, the stock should resume trading and we'll have a better idea for a several of our contestants in terms of where they stand.

goblue100
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by goblue100 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:18 pm

I'd like to close my position in ILMN.
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:25 am

goblue100 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:18 pm
I'd like to close my position in ILMN.
Congrats on your Illumina pick, up 45%! I'll update the spreadsheet later this weekend to reflect yesterday's close as you requested, $204.46.

goblue100
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by goblue100 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:19 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:25 am
goblue100 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:18 pm
I'd like to close my position in ILMN.
Congrats on your Illumina pick, up 45%! I'll update the spreadsheet later this weekend to reflect yesterday's close as you requested, $204.46.
Thanks. Looks like I could have waited a day, but 45% seemed like a good 8 month return. :)
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:30 pm

goblue100 wrote:
Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:19 am
Thanks. Looks like I could have waited a day, but 45% seemed like a good 8 month return. :)
I updated the spreadsheet to reflect your sale. Yeah, ILMN continued to move about 1% higher, but it's nice to lock in gains too and not worry about the risks sometimes.

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

inbox788
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by inbox788 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:32 am

FYI: In case you haven't been paying attention like me, I just noticed AAPL is up 40% YTD. Not a popular choice amongst the amateur hedge fund managers here. Don't know if this is the same predilection among professionals, but it's well represented in the index funds and popular with the public investors. FB (more similar in popularity) and NFLX are both beating AAPL.

So while some hedge fund managers that pick winning stocks (i.e. NVDA, short SHLD) may beat the market, avoiding or missing out on well performing stocks is a pitfall (or worse shorting stocks like AAPL and FB) -- and someone out there is doing exactly that.

FinancialDave
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by FinancialDave » Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:13 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:32 am
FYI: In case you haven't been paying attention like me, I just noticed AAPL is up 40% YTD. Not a popular choice amongst the amateur hedge fund managers here. Don't know if this is the same predilection among professionals, but it's well represented in the index funds and popular with the public investors. FB (more similar in popularity) and NFLX are both beating AAPL.
Of course I hope nobody thinks this contest is about stock picking, it's about GAMBLING, somewhat just the opposite of good stock picking (though I tend to think stock picking is just a lower risk gambling as well.) In other words winning techniques will favor picking a single stock, long or short, and betting it all on that. Something you should never do in real life. Those with a diversified portfolio will not favor well.

Then again maybe this does line up with the average hedge fund world in real life.

:oops:
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

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PuddlesTheDuck
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by PuddlesTheDuck » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:30 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:32 am
FYI: In case you haven't been paying attention like me, I just noticed AAPL is up 40% YTD. Not a popular choice amongst the amateur hedge fund managers here. Don't know if this is the same predilection among professionals, but it's well represented in the index funds and popular with the public investors. FB (more similar in popularity) and NFLX are both beating AAPL.
I would have loved to pick AAPL, but I don't like to mix fantasy and reality and I already have a bit of my net worth in AAPL. Great for my actual portfolio and real life, not great for being able to wag my internet wang around for years to come. Hopefully I get better at shorting things next year.
So while some hedge fund managers that pick winning stocks (i.e. NVDA, short SHLD) may beat the market, avoiding or missing out on well performing stocks is a pitfall (or worse shorting stocks like AAPL and FB) -- and someone out there is doing exactly that.
There's always someone out there doing something dumb: don't let it be you.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:47 am

Sorry for the lack of updates and missing the Q3 recap. With only a bit more than two months to go, here are the standings as of 10/20:
1. Better Lucky Than Good, Tanelorn 92%
2. Commonwealth of Buckaroo Dough Holdings, GoldenFinch 36%
3. Stochastic Capital Fund (RUNIF), wsgosset 35%
4. Sticky Wonder Fund, stickman731 35%
5. The Unpresidented Opportunity Fund, jdb 32%
I wanted to congratulate wsgosset on his Stochastic Capital fund, moving up in ranks and currently in third place at 35% gains for the year. He is also only a hair's breadth out of 2nd place, held by GoldenFinch at 36% who is in all cash after locking in her early gains in her single stock pick SRPT.
wsgosset wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:47 pm
The Stochastic Capital Fund (RUNIF) uses a proprietary long-only sampling strategy. Our picks for this year are GUID, MDCA, and ROP, all long.
Stochastic Capital is a long only fund with three picks, the most successful of which is MDC Partners (MDCA), a small cap advertising and marketing firm that had a terrible 2016 and fell nearly 80% to $5. wsgosset picked it up at the start of this year around $7 and has seen over 70% gains spurred by Goldman Sachs subsequently taking a 15% stake in the firm and the firm resolving their SEC investigation over non-disclosure issues involving optimistic non-GAAP accounting and their now ex-CEO's millions of dollars in fringe benefits (cosmetic surgery and yacht expenses!).

I also noticed that one of his picks, Guidance Software (GUID), had been acquired and the spreadsheet now reflects the final merger price of $7.10, a slightly improvement to the last trade price previously reported but still a modest 2% loss for the fund when a higher bidder did not emerge in the merger process for this legal software company.

As a side note, GoldenFinch's successful pick, SRPT, was sold by her fund after good Q2 earnings in July for a 36% gain. Since then, the stock has gone to even greater success and is up over 70% YTD, showing that it can be hard to time these volatile individual stock calls. Holding one's winners is hard, especially when it looks like you can lock in a nice profit and a strong showing in the contest. Time will tell if will wsgosset's picks will overtake second place with a strong finish for 2017 or fall back from their current strength.

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:19 pm

There have been a number of shakeups among the top funds in the past two weeks. While the markets have been rising as the year draws to a close, our top leaders are both short only funds. Here are the updates:

camper's Death Knell fund has regained second place with a 46% return so far on the back of mounting Sears woes (his fund is entirely short SHLD). It's been a wild ride ranging from +-50%, but at present the fund is strongly in the green.

stickman731's Sticky Wonder Fund has also done well, rising in the ranks to 3rd with 41%. While 3 of his 5 picks are down 25-50%, his big two winners with OELD and CC (discussed previously) are up about 150% each giving the fund a respectable showing as these winners have continued to rise throughout the year.

Lastly, slapfish's Snark Tank fund has pulled into 4th (just ahead of GoldenFinch) with 37% as one of his long picks, Limelight Networks (LLNW), an internet networking service company, has notched up continued gains from favorable earnings guidance and is up around 120% for the year.

On the procedural side, with only two months to go, it is looking increasingly uncertain whether WINS will resume trading before the end of our contest (several of our contestants are short WINS). The company successfully argued against being delisted by Nasdaq for the reasons given (number of shareholder issues); however, Nasdaq is still not satisfied with their disclosure and accounting and the stock remains halted until their questions are answered. Just my $0.02, but this isn't a very friendly policy to keep people with their investments tied up as untradeable so long.

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

goblue100
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by goblue100 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:47 am

WINS resumed trading for about 20 minutes today. Down 127 points before being halted. Glad to get a more honest valuation before the end of the year. :)
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:39 pm

goblue100 wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:47 am
WINS resumed trading for about 20 minutes today. Down 127 points before being halted. Glad to get a more honest valuation before the end of the year. :)
Indeed - I was wondering if we'd ever see it reopen before the end of the year. The opening trade was down $160+, but now it's settled down around -$120 / -60%. I wouldn't want to be long over the next couple days.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:06 am

Two quick updates -

First, congratulations to camper's Death Knell fund, now around 55% gains with his short Sears position. He has been solidly in second place for a while now, but his prediction has been increasingly accurate and his fund performance reflects this. While I had originally given Sears a longer timeline, it seems his fund is increasingly aptly named and the Sears debt beyond next year, now trading at $0.50 on the dollar, suggests that a bankruptcy is feared in the near term and increasingly likely.

Second, WINS stock has now resumed trading, after being halted for most of the year, and has settled down in the mid $50s, down 75% from the last halted value of just over $200. While various insider transactions in the stock suggests a fair value considerably lower, at least we now have a market price for our contest again. goblue100's fund is now showing a respectable 30% return with this update to his position.

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest
Last edited by Tanelorn on Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:31 am

Gropes & Ray wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:26 am
Mr. Smartypants's Smart Stuff Stocks Based on Politics Fund:

Long:
AJRD (Defense)
RICE (Shale Fracker, and I know people who work for them)

Short:
ASGN (Picked as a top stock for 2017)
OCLR (Picked as a top stock for 2017)
AET (Health insurer)
Gropes & Ray - congrats on your RICE pick. They were acquired last month in a stock and cash merger by EQT corp:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2 ... ice-Energy
https://www.miaxoptions.com/sites/defau ... _42120.pdf

If you have no strong preference, I'll cash you out at the combined merger value as of the completion date. However, as the deal is mostly stock and the acquirer is another energy company, if you want you can keep the EQT position and I can make the appropriate adjustments. let me know in the next few days what you'd like, or I will cash you out by default. Until then, please excuse the inaccurate $0 value in the spreadsheet as the stock no longer exists.

Gropes & Ray
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Gropes & Ray » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:53 pm

Cash me out! Good news is, all my friends landed on their feet after the deal.

overthought
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by overthought » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:08 pm

AMD and SRPT are causing #ref! errors in the spreadsheet?

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:50 am

That's most likely due to an error when the quote can't be retrieved. Reloading the page should fix it.

They look OK now.
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whodidntante
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by whodidntante » Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:27 pm

Shareholders apparently don't like responsibly raised burrito meat.

GoldenFinch
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:56 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:27 pm
Shareholders apparently don't like responsibly raised burrito meat.
The tide has turned! Apparently Taco Bell is doing well, so maybe people are just fickle.

(Yum stock (Taco Bell) is up 31% so far this year. Chipotle isn’t doing too well.)

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StormShadow
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by StormShadow » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:32 pm

Suggestion for 2018 hedge fund contest:
Each fund has to pick 3 long and 3 short stocks. :beer

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:33 am

Gropes & Ray wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:53 pm
Cash me out! Good news is, all my friends landed on their feet after the deal.
Your RICE position earned nearly 40%, putting your fund back in the green for the year. The spreadsheet has been updated, and you can see them calculations on the data page if you're interested. More importantly, I'm glad your friends came out ok.

goblue100
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by goblue100 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:56 pm

Hmmph, guess I should have closed out WINS at 55, as it is now up nearly 100 points from there. I don't see why anyone would be buying this stock, but it takes all kinds.
By Bill Alpert A week ago Monday, Nasdaq allowed shares of Wins Finance to resume trading. They shot from 55 bucks to 161 that day, and have bounced around as madly since, on precious little trading volume. The tiny Beijing-based lender was one of Nasdaq's top gainers last year (ticker: WINS) and the subject of a 2016 Barron's story that exposed the rickety foundations of the stock's 15-fold rise ( "The Mystery Stock That's Up 15-Fold This Year," December 24, 2016). With the stock up 43% this week, to $93 this morning, a company with less than $10 million in revenue in its last fiscal year is now valued at $1.9 billion
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

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