Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

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MotoTrojan
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:51 pm

This thread title reads like satire. I think Bitcoin had a low of $0.008 (that is not a typo on the number of zeros)... wish I got in then!

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HomerJ
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by HomerJ » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:58 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:01 am
We have seen this extraordinary run up in prices and the price of earnings (PE ratio) since 1980. A lot of evidence that cannot continue-- 3% real returns from stocks in the long run is a pretty good guess at the moment, given where interest rates are.
What's the long run? 5 years? 10 years? 30 years?

We've had lost decades before, followed by extremely profitable decades, averaging out to the historical average.

I could believe 3% for 10-15 years, followed by 10-15 years of 12%.

I don't believe 3% for the next 30 years.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm

synpacket wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:05 pm
Has anyone here used bitcoin? It isn't supposed to be an investment. It's money. When I had to send someone in another country some money, it cost $40 to wire it. I didn't know how else to do it, but that seems standard.

If you want to send me money, how do you do it? What if I need that money right now, today. Well, you can send me bitcoin to this address: 1sPAF5pgMih99wEzHLNEPkxYdMemC2jnb.

It doesn't matter where I am in the world. You can send me money this second using that address. The money will come right to me. It'll cost about about $1 but you could send it for free, it just may take longer to reach me. Right now the problem is that I can't go spend bitcoin at the grocery store, I have to turn it back into USD first. But we'll get there.

I hope you can see the value in this. I don't think it's an investment, I think it is the future of money.
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.

ccieemeritus
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by ccieemeritus » Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:35 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:54 am
Could you elaborate on why you think that Tesla will fail? I kinda get your point for everything else except the part on Tesla. Thanks!
Tesla loses money on every sale, is burning through cash, just used a bunch of cash to buy a solar company, is dependent on government subsidies for solar cars, and has a highly inflated stock price.

Of course, I thought similar things about amazon for the past 15 years.

The good news for me is that I’m doing well as an index fund investor, and am not losing sleep over Tesla, Amazon, or bitcoin. I am losing some sleep over my last individual stock, but am trying to gradually reduce my exposure in a tax-efficient and wife-approved way (both my wife and I have to agree to execute a significant trade).

aqan
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by aqan » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:08 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:04 am
Amazon is a real company with huge assets and operations, some quite successful.
of course it is but could you picture yourself saying the same at the height of dotcom bubble? At that time amazon was just a bet on future of e-commerce just like BitCoin is a bet on future of digital currency. I'm not implying that they are equal or BitCoin will follow the suit but there's a chance that it could change the way we transact money.

jb1
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by jb1 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:23 am

Lol at anyone who is/was afraid to even try crypto.

My biggest regret is not selling my whole portfolio and putting it in Bitcoin over the summer. Wouldve been sitting pretty. Instead im getting 7%..

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:46 am

ccieemeritus wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:35 pm
Jacky817 wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:54 am
Could you elaborate on why you think that Tesla will fail? I kinda get your point for everything else except the part on Tesla. Thanks!
Tesla loses money on every sale, is burning through cash, just used a bunch of cash to buy a solar company, is dependent on government subsidies for solar cars, and has a highly inflated stock price.
You mean electric cars, right? I don't think the US govt subsidy of $7,500 (?) has meant much to the buyers of a $80k vehicle. Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt, yes, but Tesla?

I agree re the other comments.
Of course, I thought similar things about amazon for the past 15 years.
I doubt Tesla's competitors will be so asleep at the switch. EVs will disrupt the heck out of the Internal Combustion Engine car industry, but the existing ICE companies will produce EVs.

Tesla right now is priced for perfect execution-- and even then it's really expensive.
The good news for me is that I’m doing well as an index fund investor, and am not losing sleep over Tesla, Amazon, or bitcoin. I am losing some sleep over my last individual stock, but am trying to gradually reduce my exposure in a tax-efficient and wife-approved way (both my wife and I have to agree to execute a significant trade).
Beware holding too long. I am all for tax efficiency but holding on too long can really hurt.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:48 am

aqan wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:08 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:04 am
Amazon is a real company with huge assets and operations, some quite successful.
of course it is but could you picture yourself saying the same at the height of dotcom bubble? At that time amazon was just a bet on future of e-commerce just like BitCoin is a bet on future of digital currency. I'm not implying that they are equal or BitCoin will follow the suit but there's a chance that it could change the way we transact money.
Actually by 2000 Amazon had real market clout. It was getting serious here (in the UK) and it was already the dominant player in books and CDs in the USA. AWS was the non-obvious business that emerged later. Also that they made ebooks work, when so many had failed.

Amazon was badly overvalued in 2000 and there were reasons to think it might sink (it had debt, and one or two debt analysts were very pessimistic about its ability to pay back). But it was a quite real company.

Amazon in 1998 maybe is a better example. Or Netscape in 1996.

I think the underlying technology of Bitcoin could be big. But this particular implementation? It's too volatile to serve as a store of value.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:53 am

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:58 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:01 am
We have seen this extraordinary run up in prices and the price of earnings (PE ratio) since 1980. A lot of evidence that cannot continue-- 3% real returns from stocks in the long run is a pretty good guess at the moment, given where interest rates are.
What's the long run? 5 years? 10 years? 30 years?

We've had lost decades before, followed by extremely profitable decades, averaging out to the historical average.

I could believe 3% for 10-15 years, followed by 10-15 years of 12%.

I don't believe 3% for the next 30 years.
To get to 12% real, you'd need to have a stock market crash first. You'd have well less than 3% real in the next 10-15 years.

For sure a course where we have a bad bear market, and then really great years, is more likely than a steady 3% real.

But if we look at likely real EPS growth, 3% real is a pretty good guess. The limits of equity retirement via borrowing to fund share buybacks and public-to-private LBOs must surely be reached fairly soon. The real economy is not growing at 3% worldwide. And the PE of the market most probably cannot expand further.

So if you can't get PE multiple growth, and you can't get EPS growth much faster than 3% real, then you can't have returns greater than 3% real.

Put it another way the stock market (US) is yielding say 2.0%, and dividend growth is probably around 3%, so that's 5% nominal, and inflation is 2% say.

Total return = current dividend yield + dividend growth +/- change in payout ratio of earnings +/- speculative return (change in PE ratio)

I am assuming constant payout ratio (DPS/ EPS)

BV3273
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by BV3273 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:06 am

I remember some nerd at work telling me about it when it was $13.

The first purchase made with Bitcoin was 10,000 for a Dominos pizza.

The only problem was that the major exchange for Bitcoin tanked back then and a lot of early investors lost their shirts. Not sure what the future brings as my crystal ball is broken.

synpacket
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by synpacket » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:04 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.
Right now it isn't better than centralized services. It can't handle the transaction capacity of Visa yet, for example. I looked up Venmo, it's run by PayPal. It takes 1 - 3 days for funds to arrive. What's so great about it? You have to have an account, so you can get locked out if you have the wrong political opinion or live in the wrong country, a government can intervene to have you locked out. That can't happen with Bitcoin.

Venmo: When you first create your account in a seven day period, your total transactions can not exceed $299.99 until you verify your identity.

Um, no. Do they want to know who I voted for also, or do I still have the right to keep that a secret, or does that make me a possible criminal? Seriously, give me a bitcoin address and I'll send you a tiny amount and let's see how it compares to Venmo.

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jadd806
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by jadd806 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:12 am

jb1 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:23 am
Lol at anyone who is/was afraid to even try crypto.

My biggest regret is not selling my whole portfolio and putting it in Bitcoin over the summer. Wouldve been sitting pretty. Instead im getting 7%..
I highly doubt that anyone here is "afraid" to try cryptocurrency. For many posters on this forum the entirety of your net worth is a drop in the bucket. Whether they lost a mid 5-figure sum with a bad week in the markets or a cryptocurrency gamble gone south wouldn't be of much consequence.

For the most part, it's about discipline and being responsible stewards of our money. Bitcoin is the antithesis of the Boglehead investment philosophy, so it's really no surprise that it gets such a negative reaction here.

You are lucky to have found this forum at such a young age, but it's useless if you're not willing to heed the decades of wisdom and experience that others so kindly share.

coastalinvestor
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by coastalinvestor » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:27 am

Can the moderators please change the title of this thread to "Didn't Buy Bitcoin at $11,288?" :)

beebog
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by beebog » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:31 am

BolderBoy wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:00 am
ny_rn wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:38 am
I bought half a bitcoin for ~ $4k and then traded it. I should have held it the Boglehead way. I also bought ethereum ~ $100. I'll hold onto that. :D
My parent's gave me $1500 of K-Mart as a BD present. Like a good BH, I held onto it...right down to a value of -0-.
I think a good Boglehead would have sold the stock and bought $1500 of VTSAX?

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:35 am

synpacket wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:04 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.
Right now it isn't better than centralized services. It can't handle the transaction capacity of Visa yet, for example. I looked up Venmo, it's run by PayPal. It takes 1 - 3 days for funds to arrive. What's so great about it? You have to have an account, so you can get locked out if you have the wrong political opinion or live in the wrong country, a government can intervene to have you locked out. That can't happen with Bitcoin.

Venmo: When you first create your account in a seven day period, your total transactions can not exceed $299.99 until you verify your identity.

Um, no. Do they want to know who I voted for also, or do I still have the right to keep that a secret, or does that make me a possible criminal? Seriously, give me a bitcoin address and I'll send you a tiny amount and let's see how it compares to Venmo.
Scaling from (iirc) 12 transactions per second to what would be required to replace Visa is quite a steep climb. The punchline of an old joke that this reminds me of is "those sardines weren't for eating, they were for buying and selling."

Fwiw, I recently paid a bill with Zelle with a previously unknown vendor that took around 2 minutes before he told me that he was notified of payment. I don't know how long it took before his account was credited, but he wasn't worried. All I had was an email address for him.

Don't forget that there were many failing stocks tied to the Internet. The internet has become a foundation of commerce and communication, but that doesn't necessarily mean that investors in early Internet firms did well. I'm with Matt Levine on bitcoin.
The other reason not to trade bitcoin is that, as far as I can tell, the fate of any bitcoin exchange/wallet/bank/custodian is to be hacked. That is just how bitcoin works: You buy bitcoins on an exchange, and you store them at the exchange because it's a pain to keep your private key yourself, and then the exchange gets hacked and your bitcoins get stolen. ("There have been at least three dozen heists of cryptocurrency exchanges since 2011," Reuters noted last week.)

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:48 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:10 am
Jonathan wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:00 am
Valuethinker - it's great that you're passionate about this subject, but I'm not sure that 5 posts in a row is appropriate. Consider giving others an equal opportunity to share their opinions on this topic.
I learn something from just about every one of Valuethinker’s posts, and when I don’t, I still enjoy them.

In any case, if memory serves, we civilians are not supposed to act as moderators. I’m sure that, if it were felt that Valuethinker was too active on the forum, a moderator would handle it.
Thank you ;-).

One ginormous one, or 5 smaller ones, each an arrow going in its own direction... mas nicht?

People are more likely to get something out of the smaller ones.

Besides, I have my post count to keep up== gotta give Livesoft some competition ;-).

synpacket
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by synpacket » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:49 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:35 am
Don't forget that there were many failing stocks tied to the Internet. The internet has become a foundation of commerce and communication, but that doesn't necessarily mean that investors in early Internet firms did well. I'm with Matt Levine on bitcoin.
I won't be at all surprised if the Bogleheads turn out correct on Bitcoin. But the technology is real and I think comparing to beanie babies is way off. The internet comparison is better. The Amazon or Google of Bitcoin probably hasn't come along yet.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:55 am

synpacket wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:05 pm
Has anyone here used bitcoin? It isn't supposed to be an investment. It's money. When I had to send someone in another country some money, it cost $40 to wire it. I didn't know how else to do it, but that seems standard.

If you want to send me money, how do you do it? What if I need that money right now, today. Well, you can send me bitcoin to this address: 1sPAF5pgMih99wEzHLNEPkxYdMemC2jnb.

It doesn't matter where I am in the world. You can send me money this second using that address. The money will come right to me. It'll cost about about $1 but you could send it for free, it just may take longer to reach me. Right now the problem is that I can't go spend bitcoin at the grocery store, I have to turn it back into USD first. But we'll get there.

I hope you can see the value in this. I don't think it's an investment, I think it is the future of money.
I think this is the nub of it. That there are inefficiencies in current arrangements which crypto currencies can (potentially) solve.

Those Somali immigrants you see queued up outside of Western Union are paying some huge percentage to WU to send a few dollars home to their families. 10% ? 20% more?

There is an unbanked planet out there, and this technology might be part of the solution.

BUT

It won't work as a store of value. Not with this volatility. And because the supply is effectively capped, it doesn't look like it will ever settle down to anything approximating a stable value.

It has too many uses for illegal purposes: drugs, ransomware payments etc. And the associated tax evasion. Anti Money Laundering is a very real thing, and the governments of the world won't allow a big loophole forever. It has to get regularized and controlled in some fashion.

An investment? By definition, an investment is something that will pay you a future cash flow. Either a dividend or stock buyback or an interest coupon. Bitcoin won't do any of those things, ever.

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Trevor
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Trevor » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:01 am

Ethereum is the amazon or google of cryptos and it has increased way more than bitcoin this year - up 5000%. It has a “small” market cap and isn’t going anywhere but up. Bitcoin may have the first mover advantage but someday these coins that are backed by amazing technology will be at the forefront of everyday lives.
WWJD - What Would Jack Do?

queso
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by queso » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:16 am

Trevor wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:01 am
Ethereum is the amazon or google of cryptos and it has increased way more than bitcoin this year - up 5000%. It has a “small” market cap and isn’t going anywhere but up. Bitcoin may have the first mover advantage but someday these coins that are backed by amazing technology will be at the forefront of everyday lives.
I dunno. I'd like to believe that, especially since I hold Ethereum [and BTC, LTC and now BTG(lol..)]. Despite that, I can't help but believe that the underlying force that has pushed these currencies on such a meteoric rise is exactly the same force that gave us lolcats, Gangham Style, Boaty McBoatface and "professional Youtubers"...namely sheer, unadulterated Internet hype via the twittersphere and other social media platforms. I don't see that the currencies in and of themselves have any intrinsic value/backing and are practically useless as an actual currency for conducting "normal" transactions. Sure they could give banking to the unbanked, but as user unfriendly as they are to actually use I don't think goat herders in Afghanistan are going to be tripping over themselves to get down to the BTC ATM anytime soon. Right now we're seeing a huge moonshot as the uninitiated masses are experiencing unprecedented amounts of FOMO and are rushing to the app store in a mad dash to max out their credit cards buying Bitcoin. As long as the FOMO and hype continue the coins will continue to rise and we'll all profit. Once the music stops though (and yes, Gangham Style, as great as it is, did at some point get old), I don't think any of the underlying currencies can stand on their own as _actual_ currencies. Given a long enough timeline I don't see any future but a precipitous drop, but I wouldn't be the first pontificating nobody to predict that and be wrong. Whatever happens it will have been a fun ride. :happy

alfaspider
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by alfaspider » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:26 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:51 pm
This thread title reads like satire. I think Bitcoin had a low of $0.008 (that is not a typo on the number of zeros)... wish I got in then!
Bitcoin had no value when it was first created. It only has value today because people are willing to pay for them. I'm happy to sell anyone in this thread alfaspider coins (tm) for a low ICO price of $100*. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor!



*Alfaspider reserves the right to issue alfaspider coins in the form of slips of paper instead of going through the work of developing a blockchain.

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TinkerPDX
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by TinkerPDX » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:33 am

Wish I could make all my investing decisions with the benefit of a few months' (or years') hindsight. Anyone who could would own the world pretty quickly.

Happy for the folks who have huge bitcoin gains (including my BIL who bought $10,000 or so when it was under $1,000, and who I encouraged, unsuccessfully, to take some gains out around $3,000). I do worry he'll take a huge drop at some point--but hell, he's up 10x, good for him. I'm even a little jealous... but resisting the urge to jump in at today's prices.

I get that blockchain is amazing and will have many valuable applications, but I can't get past Bitcoin, Ether Tokens, etc., all just being another fiat currency, only one that isn't backed by a sovereign. I'll stick with dollars for my cash holdings (0%), and bonds for stability, and equity in companies that do something productive for growth.

BW1985
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by BW1985 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:35 am

Everywhere I look people are talking about bitcoin and how to buy it. This thing seems like it's going to crash HARD.
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

Jonathan
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Jonathan » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:09 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:55 am
An investment? By definition, an investment is something that will pay you a future cash flow. Either a dividend or stock buyback or an interest coupon. Bitcoin won't do any of those things, ever.
That's not the definition of "investment" at all; that's your own personal definition. Here's a sample of the definition of investment from Merriam-Webster, Cambridge Dictionary, Investopedia, Dictionary.com, and Wikipedia.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

You are declaring that only your personal view on investment counts as the true definition. In fact, bitcoin fits the true definition of investment just fine.

MotoTrojan
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:05 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:26 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:51 pm
This thread title reads like satire. I think Bitcoin had a low of $0.008 (that is not a typo on the number of zeros)... wish I got in then!
Bitcoin had no value when it was first created. It only has value today because people are willing to pay for them. I'm happy to sell anyone in this thread alfaspider coins (tm) for a low ICO price of $100*. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor!



*Alfaspider reserves the right to issue alfaspider coins in the form of slips of paper instead of going through the work of developing a blockchain.
Never said it did. I'll pass on your coins :).

ccieemeritus
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by ccieemeritus » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:54 am

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:26 am
I'm happy to sell anyone in this thread alfaspider coins (tm) for a low ICO price of $100*.
*Alfaspider reserves the right to issue alfaspider coins in the form of slips of paper instead of going through the work of developing a blockchain.
Moderators: please change the title of this thread to "Didn't buy Alfaspider coins at $100"

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HomerJ
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by HomerJ » Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:19 am

jb1 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:23 am
Lol at anyone who is/was afraid to even try crypto.

My biggest regret is not selling my whole portfolio and putting it in Bitcoin over the summer. Wouldve been sitting pretty. Instead im getting 7%..
Why don't you do it now? From what I hear, Bitcoin is guaranteed to grow at least 10x more.

I'll watch from over here though.

bridge
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by bridge » Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:29 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.
Try using Venmo to send money to Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:08 am

bridge wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:29 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.
Try using Venmo to send money to Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
That’s a fair point. I guess that use case is one that the investors think will become more prevalent. It is a use case that doesn’t matter in my life, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a factor in Zimbabwe or Venezuela. Still, I’ll watch from the sidelines.

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HomerJ
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by HomerJ » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:32 am

bridge wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:29 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.
Try using Venmo to send money to Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
Has the argument for how great bitcoin is really changed from "everyone will use bitcoin to buy Subway sandwiches", to "0.0001% of the people will be able to wire money to Venezuela."?
Last edited by HomerJ on Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:34 am, edited 2 times in total.

alfaspider
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by alfaspider » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:32 am

bridge wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:29 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.
Try using Venmo to send money to Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
It's worth noting that bitcoin is defacto illegal in Venezuela. It would be dangerous to attempt to spend bitcoin on goods and services there.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/venezue ... tcoin.html

In Zimbabwe, there are various services that actually would allow you to send someone USD or other government-backed currencies if you wanted to.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by surfstar » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:53 am

So how do we short it?

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:56 am

surfstar wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:53 am
So how do we short it?
I think I heard on Bloomberg that futures contracts on bitcoin were approved today. Short away, but I would personally not do that, because it could be a hairy ride.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by bridge » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:26 am

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:32 am
bridge wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:29 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:03 pm
How much better is this than Venmo or Zelle? We use them all the time. If someone doesn’t want to give me an email or phone number, I don’t have to send them money.
Try using Venmo to send money to Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
Has the argument for how great bitcoin is really changed from "everyone will use bitcoin to buy Subway sandwiches", to "0.0001% of the people will be able to wire money to Venezuela."?
I'm not saying it's great. But it has very different properties to both fiat currencies and existing payment systems which rely on central authorities, trusted third parties, custodians and middlemen.

With bitcoin, you don't need permission and you don't have to trust any bank, government or provider. You don't have to sign up for an account, prove your identity or get approval to use the system. You just need reasonably reliable access to the internet and a computer or phone.

Bitcoin is a hybrid of a currency, a store of value and and a payments system in one. It is decentralised, public (owned by no-one), resistant to government interference and censorship resistant. It is highly secure and unhackable (by which I mean the system itself - the distributed legder - not individual persons' bitcoins which may be stolen if the holder does not properly secure their private keys).

I challenge anyone who says bitcoin is worthless to explain how there is no value in this system. The world has never had a system like this before - it is something new. A new kind of money unlike precious metals and unlike fiat currency, unlike banks, paypal and Western Union.

Bitcoin can be technically difficult to get your head around, and that leads a lot of people to dismiss it. Some people view it from a USA/first world perspective and just compare it with PayPal, and don't see its global transformative potential.

Now you may rightly say it is not a suitable vehicle for your investment, or that you think it is currently overvalued with respect to its true value - these are reasonable positions. But that is not the same as saying it is valueless, "backed by nothing" or a Ponzi scheme as is so often said.

Jacky817
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Jacky817 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:49 am

bridge wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:26 am

I'm not saying it's great. But it has very different properties to both fiat currencies and existing payment systems which rely on central authorities, trusted third parties, custodians and middlemen.

With bitcoin, you don't need permission and you don't have to trust any bank, government or provider. You don't have to sign up for an account, prove your identity or get approval to use the system. You just need reasonably reliable access to the internet and a computer or phone.

Bitcoin is a hybrid of a currency, a store of value and and a payments system in one. It is decentralised, public (owned by no-one), resistant to government interference and censorship resistant. It is highly secure and unhackable (by which I mean the system itself - the distributed legder - not individual persons' bitcoins which may be stolen if the holder does not properly secure their private keys).

I challenge anyone who says bitcoin is worthless to explain how there is no value in this system. The world has never had a system like this before - it is something new. A new kind of money unlike precious metals and unlike fiat currency, unlike banks, paypal and Western Union.

Bitcoin can be technically difficult to get your head around, and that leads a lot of people to dismiss it. Some people view it from a USA/first world perspective and just compare it with PayPal, and don't see its global transformative potential.

Now you may rightly say it is not a suitable vehicle for your investment, or that you think it is currently overvalued with respect to its true value - these are reasonable positions. But that is not the same as saying it is valueless, "backed by nothing" or a Ponzi scheme as is so often said.
"I challenge anyone who says bitcoin is worthless to explain how there is no value in this system."
There is value in this system of BITCOINS if the majority of the population of the world/country/region uses it to transact, to buy actual stuff. In the same way that Wechat is used by everyone in China, and Watsapp/Telegram being used from where i live. Currently, i don't see that phenomena with cryptocurrencies. Correct me if i'm wrong, but it seems that significantly more people are using currencies to buy bitcoins and vice verse in a highly speculative, greater-fools-theory kinda way.
If my premise that few people are actually using it for it's intended purpose, is correct, then the system does not exist for it to have value. As of now.

I have two points:
1. There is no value in the system as of now, because few people are participating in it to transact. It is __coin -> USD -> stocks/car/shoe/coke, not __coin -> coke.
2. I agree with you that there is POTENTIAL value in this system, but it does not necessarily have to be Bitcoin. It may very well be a type of coin that has not yet been invented. Microsoft and Amazon survived the tech bubble. I won't bet my money on any type of crypto to survive the crash coz I wouldn't know which is the Microsoft.

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Psyayeayeduck
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Psyayeayeduck » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:19 am

More power to the people who want to play the Bitcoin game but it sounds more like a stressful mind game disguised as an investment. I don't understand it nor do I know what it tangibly produces. Everything feels like a giant Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers waiting for the other to make the first move in a Ponzi-like environment. If it were me, I would sell it off now and call it a win while everything is ungodly hot with BC. People who bought early and often have already won. When does the "enough is enough" threshold kick in? When BC is at $100k? $200k? $1M? People focus way too much on the greed side of BC that they forget that the lifeforce behind is based on speculation and feelings of greed from others. At least with index funds, mutual funds, and the like are based on some level of productivity where BC does not.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:55 am

queso wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:16 am
Trevor wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:01 am
Ethereum is the amazon or google of cryptos and it has increased way more than bitcoin this year - up 5000%. It has a “small” market cap and isn’t going anywhere but up. Bitcoin may have the first mover advantage but someday these coins that are backed by amazing technology will be at the forefront of everyday lives.
I dunno. I'd like to believe that, especially since I hold Ethereum [and BTC, LTC and now BTG(lol..)]. Despite that, I can't help but believe that the underlying force that has pushed these currencies on such a meteoric rise is exactly the same force that gave us lolcats, Gangham Style, Boaty McBoatface and "professional Youtubers"...namely sheer, unadulterated Internet hype via the twittersphere and other social media platforms.
I disagree with some of the above. Ever seen Zoella's stats?

Look there was David Cassidy. Ever seen a film of the Beatles first tour of America? You see mass youth hysteria. Demographics have shifted and the equivalent generation to the Baby Boomers then is not such a large proportion of the population, but just because something does not appeal to me as a 50-something old fart, doesn't mean there is not a market, and a valuable market to someone, for the eyeballs of 16-21 year olds who spend huge amounts of time on their phones on the internets.

Boaty McBoatface was the British sense of humour let rip in the age of the Internet. My siblings and I could quote large chunks of Monty Python-- to our parents' similar disgust ;-).

Gangham Style made its way to the flight deck crew of a US naval aircraft carrier ;-). It's actually part of the South Korean economic strategy, as the country moves away from a dependence on heavy industry.

Things can be transient and ephemeral and superficial *and* be a good business model.
I don't see that the currencies in and of themselves have any intrinsic value/backing and are practically useless as an actual currency for conducting "normal" transactions. Sure they could give banking to the unbanked, but as user unfriendly as they are to actually use I don't think goat herders in Afghanistan are going to be tripping over themselves to get down to the BTC ATM anytime soon.
More the Somalis who work in the US, Canada, UK & the Middle East, who right now are getting slaughtered by Western Union (or informal moneychangers in refugee camps in Kenya). We had a hospital near us, and the largest single destination of phonecall from the maternity ward was the Gulf-- local Somali women having their children, and the men working in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. Or think the Filipinos who are the belowdecks of the world's shipping fleet, away for years at a time.
Right now we're seeing a huge moonshot as the uninitiated masses are experiencing unprecedented amounts of FOMO and are rushing to the app store in a mad dash to max out their credit cards buying Bitcoin. As long as the FOMO and hype continue the coins will continue to rise and we'll all profit. Once the music stops though (and yes, Gangham Style, as great as it is, did at some point get old), I don't think any of the underlying currencies can stand on their own as _actual_ currencies. Given a long enough timeline I don't see any future but a precipitous drop, but I wouldn't be the first pontificating nobody to predict that and be wrong. Whatever happens it will have been a fun ride. :happy
I am not sure huge masses have gone for this, yet. There's lots to go for on that score, still.

What I do feel is that the mania is similar to the dot com craze. The underlying idea is intriguing, and could be something big. But it's like Netscape IPO in 1996, if you remember that? The internet was going to be big, but Netscape didn't have a good way to monetize it.

Bitcoin feels a bit like that Netscape -- your only real exit is someone else buying you out of it. It's not a business model in and of itself.

Greenspan made his remarks about "Irrational Exuberance" in 1996, and the dot com bubble hadn't yet really gotten going.

Jeff Albertson
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Jeff Albertson » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:16 am

The U.S. may be just a small part of the crypo-craze.
And last week, trading between the Korean currency, the won, and Ether, the most valuable Bitcoin competitor, was nearly as active as trading between the dollar and Ether — despite the fact that Korea’s population is one-sixth that of the United States. With some virtual currencies, like Ripple and Bitcoin Cash, the won accounts for more trading than the dollar, according to the site CryptoCompare.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/tech ... korea.html

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:57 pm

Jeff Albertson wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:16 am
The U.S. may be just a small part of the crypo-craze.
And last week, trading between the Korean currency, the won, and Ether, the most valuable Bitcoin competitor, was nearly as active as trading between the dollar and Ether — despite the fact that Korea’s population is one-sixth that of the United States. With some virtual currencies, like Ripple and Bitcoin Cash, the won accounts for more trading than the dollar, according to the site CryptoCompare.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/tech ... korea.html
I don't know about Korean culture, but Chinese culture includes a love of gambling (their entrepreneurial streak seems to derive from that, too). They treat the stock market as a casino-- this is going back to Hong Kong in the 190s & 80s, at least. I had a boss from HK and she used to play the stocks (by calling her broker) at lunch. And gambling generally is a huge part of Chinese culture.

Unfortunately I doubt the South Korean cryptocurrencies are proof against the Electro Magnetic Pulse of a nuclear weapon detonation-- a relevant disadvantage in current conditions ;-).

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