Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:26 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:56 pm
I think my emotion is far more easily understood by those who were actively investing in 1987 and 2000 than those without that experience. Having those experiences doesn't necessarily make me a better investor it just adds to the the experiences that try to influence my behavior. Add to that I have always been a "Wall of Worry" investor and you can start to see where I am coming from even if you totally disagree. I have a very detailed plan that lays out my asset allocations every X dollar increment from where I am to levels I never expect to reach. So as long as I allow my plan discipline to overrule my emotions I should be fine no matter what that market does, but that still doesn't ease the feelings, it just prevents the feelings from becoming mistakes.
I have been investing since 1974. I can understand your emotion even though I don't share it. In the 80's a co-worker (who had more invested than I did) and I would frequently talk about investing. In the mid-80's when the market was rising, he would nod his head approvingly but never failed to say "It's great now, but one day it will all come crashing down." In '87 neither he nor I sold anything but continued to add to our holdings regularly. He then replaced his certain doom & gloom prediction with "I hope it goes back up." He had been sure the market would crash but not nearly as confident that it would rise again.

I lost touch with him shortly after that, but I am certain that if he is still alive he is still saying that "One day it will all come crashing down" while continuing to invest. I have wondered if he might even be on this forum. The thing I never could quite reconcile was that his investing behavior was practically set in stone, but he seemed to be making himself miserable by worrying continuously about things beyond his control even though he knew rises and falls are the nature of the beast.

bgf
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bgf » Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:31 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:58 pm
bgf wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:48 pm
grettman wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 pm
... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week.
i check this thread every day now, just to have a chuckle.
Quite an interesting reaction. I don't know what you find amusing.
bear markets are the price of admission for the ride up. if you can't enjoy the ride, i don't know what to tell you. i've been making money hand over fist. it will end one day, but not this day. and when it does end, its just time to pay up again.
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Woodshark
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Woodshark » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:16 pm

MoonOrb wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:41 pm
Over my investing lifetime, I can expect that sometimes the market will be going up and sometimes it will be going down. Sometimes it will do this sharply over days or weeks, sometimes it will happen gradually over months or years. Sometimes it will be bonds doing much better, sometimes domestic equities, sometimes international. Sometimes all of my assets and sometimes none. But over the years, my accounts will grow. I think often of the analogy of someone walking up a mountain with a yo-yo.

I enjoyed reading your entire post, but this is what I will remember. Well said.

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badbreath
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by badbreath » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:34 pm

Dam it went up again today :D
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TomCat96
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:37 pm

Somewhere down the line, we're going to experience a stock market so depressed for a period so long, this thread will be remembered for the preposterousness of its premise.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:46 pm

bgf wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:31 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:58 pm
bgf wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:48 pm
grettman wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 pm
... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week.
i check this thread every day now, just to have a chuckle.
Quite an interesting reaction. I don't know what you find amusing.
bear markets are the price of admission for the ride up. if you can't enjoy the ride, i don't know what to tell you. i've been making money hand over fist. it will end one day, but not this day. and when it does end, its just time to pay up again.
That is funny.
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bhsince87
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bhsince87 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:36 pm

I am making this as a humorous statement, not a political one.

Donald Trump said, "There will be so much winning, you'll be sick and tired of winning!"

That sounded preposterous, but maybe this is what it feels like?
Retirement: When you reach a point where you have enough. Or when you've had enough.

MoonOrb
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by MoonOrb » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:29 pm

bhsince87 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:36 pm
I am making this as a humorous statement, not a political one.

Donald Trump said, "There will be so much winning, you'll be sick and tired of winning!"

That sounded preposterous, but maybe this is what it feels like?
That quote is the exact same thing I thought of first when this thread went up!

Candor
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Candor » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:26 pm

I can relate to the OP to some extent. Several years ago I remember wishing the market would just chill out a little and be more predictable and steady but here I am years later still with a similar sentiment after riding the market all this way. I guess I'm the one who needs to chill out and enjoy the ride.

Njm8845
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Njm8845 » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:04 am

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:45 pm
I disagree 100%. This behaviour is completely crazy and not something an investor should do. As Warren Buffett has said, "You don't need a lot of brains to be in this business. What you do need is emotional stability." TheTimeLord lacks emotional stability. Someone is exhausted not because of lack of sleep from a crying infant or running a marathon but because some numbers went up just like they do every year in history. I mean, it has only been 18 months since the last market crash but that's long enough to turn someone into this state? That's not normal and it isn't how investors should think.
I agree it’s not rational to lose sleep when the market goes up. Some people just like to worry I guess.

But how was there a market crash 18 months ago? Guess I missed that one.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:34 am

Njm8845 wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:04 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:45 pm
I disagree 100%. This behaviour is completely crazy and not something an investor should do. As Warren Buffett has said, "You don't need a lot of brains to be in this business. What you do need is emotional stability." TheTimeLord lacks emotional stability. Someone is exhausted not because of lack of sleep from a crying infant or running a marathon but because some numbers went up just like they do every year in history. I mean, it has only been 18 months since the last market crash but that's long enough to turn someone into this state? That's not normal and it isn't how investors should think.
I agree it’s not rational to lose sleep when the market goes up. Some people just like to worry I guess.

But how was there a market crash 18 months ago? Guess I missed that one.
As the OP, I started to write a response outlining what I was thinking and how risk management is as or more important for those in or near retirement who have achieved their financial goals as maximizing returns is. But I believe that ground has already been covered in this thread, as has the affirmation of these feelings by several others and no one has claimed to be losing sleep because of the market going up. But to be candid I just wasn't up for having my faculties or logic questioned again this morning. So I will leave you with this, I believe risk management is an extremely important part of portfolio management, outsized gains late in the accumulation phase or early in retirement can be a game changer for some people, more money equates to more opportunities and more possibilities for most and they require a decision on whether to act upon them and finally in investing as in life you need to be willing to accept the consequences of your actions and decisions so give them due consideration.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

livesoft
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by livesoft » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:41 am

Njm8845 wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:04 am
But how was there a market crash 18 months ago? Guess I missed that one.
I guess it depends on what one considers a crash.

Brexit was 18 months ago: viewtopic.php?p=2956892#p2956892

and before that was Jan-Feb 2016: viewtopic.php?p=2770107#p2770107
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sabtastic
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by sabtastic » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:51 am

I will say it is emotionally stressful for those that are just starting out. For those of us that have been investing for years, it is easy to keep up the habit. The younger ones I work with are good savers and max out their withholdings, but are all cash and have been for years now. Every time this topic comes up they say they are "waiting for the crash". What if it never comes?

Joe_R95
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Joe_R95 » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:51 am

I'm tired of it going up. I didn't start investing heavily until 2015 so I missed a lot of gains, and went 30% bonds in my taxable so I'd have money in the next drop. Probably not the sentiment retirees want to hear, but I'm excited for the next big drop. If the s&p gets to the 1500-1600 range again I'll be mortgaging my house and going 100% equities. Until then its invest, rebalance, repeat. 35 with a decent career and reasonably long time horizon though.

Bigbonds
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Bigbonds » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:57 am

Not even one week into the new year, S&P500 up 2% and Dow 25,000! Winning :)

MoonOrb
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by MoonOrb » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:05 am

Bigbonds wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:57 am
Not even one week into the new year, S&P500 up 2% and Dow 25,000! Winning :)
On pace for a 100% return this year!

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by grettman » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:23 am

When I saw this thread when it was first created, I thought "Hey, we need to accept what the market gives us." -- which means suffer when it crashes and appreciate the gains when it rises. However, I too am getting to the point of being tired because a drop is going to be very painful. I went though many crashes in my investing life and believe that I have the mental toughness for another ...but it has been so long....ssoooooo sooo long since we had a RBY. The reactions, especially by those who have never been through it before, will be interesting to watch. I am interested in particular with the reaction of the younger folks who have jumped on the extreme early retirement bandwagon.

bearcub
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bearcub » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:42 am

Nope. Got balanced funds, so they rebalance for me.

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cfs
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by cfs » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:56 am

Win, win, win, investors are getting tired of winning! Good luck and thanks for reading / cfs
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GoldenFinch
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:03 am

I’m getting used to the stock market going up. That’s probably a bad thing.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by blaugranamd » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:11 am

mickeyd wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:39 pm
essentially feel like I am getting paranoid waiting for a shoe to drop.
Here's an idea that may drive you nuts for a while, but it works for me~ Don't read the financial paper, stay away from CNBC, don't go online to "peak" at your numbers. Try it for a week, then 2 weeks, a month, a quarter etc.

After a while you'll feel better and realize that you probably have the proper AA for the long-run and then go back to sleep.
Agreed, stop looking. If you have no intention of changing anything then quit checking. IMO that's the best part of buy and hold.
-- Don't mistake more funds for more diversity: Total Int'l + Total Market = 7k to 10k stocks -- | -- Market return does NOT = average nor 50th percentile, rather 80-90th percentile long term ---

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by CyclingDuo » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:04 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:03 am
I’m getting used to the stock market going up. That’s probably a bad thing.
Yup, going up since 1802. Not sure that is a bad thing...

Image

However, the shorter term - as in our investing lives - does and will include corrections, bear, and bull markets...

Image

That above table does not include the 2015-2016 correction/bear market. This one does...

Image

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

That's a lot of years of optimism and pessimism - be it in our investing life cycles, or the longer term since 1802.

The media continues to ignore the 2011 bear market, and the 2015-2016 bear with the continued touting of it has been nothing but up since 2009. There have been 10 corrections in the 2010-2016 time frame. Focusing on 2009 to date without including any of the corrections or the two bear markets we've had since then simply leads to heightened angst and PTSD from the Financial Crisis (as well as the dot.com meltdown).
Last edited by CyclingDuo on Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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exigent
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by exigent » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:21 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, reduce my exposure, rebalance, buy more international, buy small cap, buy value, sell large cap growth) every week.
If you have to do something, rebalance if/as appropriate. Otherwise turn off the news and go for a walk. :-)

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:31 am

CyclingDuo wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:04 am
GoldenFinch wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:03 am
I’m getting used to the stock market going up. That’s probably a bad thing.
Yup, going up since 1802. Not sure that is a bad thing...

Image

However, the shorter term - as in our investing lives - does and will include corrections, bear, and bull markets...

Image

That above table does not include the 2015-2016 correction/bear market. This one does...

Image

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

That's a lot of years of optimism and pessimism - be it in our investing life cycles, or the longer term since 1802.

The media continues to ignore the 2011 bear market, and the 2015-2016 bear with the continued touting of it has been nothing but up since 2009. There have been 10 corrections in the 2010-2016 time frame. Focusing on 2009 to date without including any of the corrections or the two bear markets we've had since then simply leads to heightened angst and PTSD from the Financial Crisis (as well as the dot.com meltdown).
Since I started seriously investing in the very late 90s and not 1802, I was previously used to the stock market going up and down and down and down. I love what the stock market is doing now, but I don’t want to get “anchored” at this high number and watch a decline. I’m just being a baby about all this right now. Time for me to quit paying attention. Just hard to do. :happy

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Runalong
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Runalong » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:08 am

Without meaning to diss anyone, the folks who are struggling emotionally with this are the ones whose emotions are likely to lead them to poor choices, while those who are blase' are likely to do well. And one main advantage of the BH approach is that it can help calm us down and take our emotions out of the equation to a greater degree.

I'm an active trader (50% of my portfolio) myself (I seem to have the emotional makeup to succeed at it) and saw that portion of my portfolio (40 stocks, average holding period 20 weeks each) go up 38% last year so I'm trying to figure out what to do with my newfound wealth. It's not a problem, it's just weird for someone who struggled to pay bills for decades to suddenly have more money than I have any need for. As a Christian, it simply means viewing stewardship from a new angle, but emotionally it's a bit weird to wake up now and see I've already made 3% in 2018 and that's more money than I made my first year of full-time employment!

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by CyclingDuo » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:15 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:31 am
Since I started seriously investing in the very late 90s and not 1802, I was previously used to the stock market going up and down and down and down. I love what the stock market is doing now, but I don’t want to get “anchored” at this high number and watch a decline. I’m just being a baby about all this right now. Time for me to quit paying attention. Just hard to do. :happy
You're not being a baby, you are simply keeping things in check along with all the rest of us in one of the most love/hate bull markets since the 1995-2000 years. The experience of the 2000-2013 period (secular bear market) will take a long time for many investors to forget. The two big hits in those years were, as you know since you said you experienced them, difficult. In spite of that - you survived.

I only referenced the 1802 to put it all in the greater historical picture of returns between equities, bonds, currency, gold, and T-bills.

Do you feel you could successfully negotiate timing the market to avoid a decline, and then successfully negotiate re-investing before the next rise? That's the piece of the equation where these boards - as well as many others - have time after time after time provided data for long term investment (even with the ups and downs) that equities, on average, favor the historical longer term chart of providing returns of 6.7% (using the rule of 72, that means your investment doubles every 10 3/4 years).

There will be a correction(s). Are you prepared with your asset allocation, and your mental preparation for when they happen? They will happen. If you are not prepared yet, then the suggestion is to prepare.

I put a box around the years I have been on the planet. Investing wise, I am well aware of the latter 6 + the one that is not shown in the box (the bear from mid 2015 to mid 2016). The prior ones in the red box I was not in tune with as baseball, girls, music, and golf were more important with regard to my attention. Actually, that would apply to the years 1987 to 2017 as well. :mrgreen:

Image

The current generational bull market we are in has been happening no matter how we feel about it. Staying invested has been a good strategy.

Image
https://www.joefahmy.com/2017/04/29/mar ... rmedbroker

There will be corrections even during generational bull markets. Just look at the corrections in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Each of those came with pronouncements that the bull market was over. We will see the same thing this time around. Each correction will have many come out of the woodwork and claim that the bull market is over. And eventually it will be, just as the secular bull market ended in 2000.

Image

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

In the meantime, as long as you are prepared with the asset allocation you are comfortable with that will allow you to reach your goals, and you continue to contribute on a monthly basis into your savings/investing - there will be a 10 3/4 years from now for you to enjoy and reflect upon. And another. And another. Add how ever many you need until your passing.
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

Bigbonds
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Bigbonds » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:18 am

Another day of winning! This chart is looking more and more likely to hold the pattern by the day. If I was a betting man I would say we have 7 more years of robust GDP growth. Hey, if Jack can predict doom every week, I’ll take the other side of the coin. :mrgreen:

https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg

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ruralavalon
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:21 am

All these charts give me a headache :( . It's just too confusing. I guess I'll just be grateful for the nice returns.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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bligh
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bligh » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:21 am

Bigbonds wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:18 am
Another day of winning! This chart is looking more and more likely to hold the pattern by the day. If I was a betting man I would say we have 7 more years of robust GDP growth. Hey, if Jack can predict doom every week, I’ll take the other side of the coin. :mrgreen:

https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
Haha.. See this is the stuff that makes me nervous. It feels like everywhere in the media the sentiment is turning bullish now. Early, last year there were plenty of "going to cash" threads.. It was quite re-assuring. But no more. To be fair there haven't been as many "Why not 100% stock" threads... yet.

MoonOrb
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by MoonOrb » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:35 pm

This is an exhausting start to the new year.

hulburt1
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by hulburt1 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:54 pm

I like winning..If you don't I know why.

Bigbonds
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Bigbonds » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:45 am

Why would anyone not like winning? Why would anyone be tired of the stock market going up? I just can’t imagine the reasoning behind it? Hmmmmmm :mrgreen:

mffl
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by mffl » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:28 am

I don't think "the bigger they are, the harder they fall" applies to the stock market. The value of the stock market on any given day is the world's collective best guess at its true value. If that weren't true, a bunch of us nervous about recent highs know things that other people don't, and we should get out or short the market. But being that we're here, we know that we can't market time any better than a coin flip. This stock market valuation should be no scarier than any other. The corrections and crashes WILL come, but now they'll come from a higher baseline. A 20% correction now has a higher floor. A 50% crash just backs us up to the stock market valuations of 2012. A small 10% correction just backs us up a couple months.

The real risk is "getting used to" the new highs and adjusting spending higher accordingly. Don't do that. :)

whiteprius
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by whiteprius » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:36 am

Don't worry pain is on the way. I don't know if it will happen this year, next year, or the year after that but the longer it takes the more painful it will be. Over the last 120 years -- the S&P 500 has always fallen or risen to a level with around a 15 P/E ratio. You don't know when it will happen, but it will happen and the drops are ALWAYS a very violent spectacle. Look at the chart below and you'll see how frighteningly steep the drops are and you'll also see that they occur totally randomly (although some try to "explain" their occurrence with post-hoc rationalizations).

http://www.multpl.com/

SGM
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by SGM » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:57 am

Boom-Boom. One boom was for the sound of his stick striking the puck; the second was for when his rocketing slapshot hit the boards.
After all the NHL had to change the rules of a power play so that the penalized player came back on the ice after a goal during the power play. Prior to that Bernie "Boom Boom" Geoffrion and Rocket Richard and others Montreal Canadiens scored 2 or 3 goals before the penalized player got back on the ice.

Maybe the rules of investing have to be changed so that after a boom there has to be a bust or a bubble in the interest of fair play. :mrgreen:

TonyDAntonio
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TonyDAntonio » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:03 pm

I'm as tired as I am confused by my 'complicated' Merriman type portfolio. Oh how I yearn for the days when I had no money. 😎

mmcmonster
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by mmcmonster » Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:21 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:02 pm
I have literally no clue what any asset class is doing at any one time. All I know and care about is which asset class is lagging in relation to the others to put new money into every month to have it even up on my yellow legal pad I keep track of. NO WHERE on there does it show what the performance is for they year.
Pretty much the same here. The Vanguard phone app tells me how much I'm up over the past 12 months, but I certainly don't keep track of that number on a regular basis.

Much more important is to see where I'm behind in my asset allocation so I know where to put new money.

Even though I contribute only ~0.5% to my net worth every month, doing so in this manner allows me enough flexibility so that I never hit my reballancing bands (so far).

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sapphire96
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by sapphire96 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:56 pm

CyclingDuo wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:15 am
GoldenFinch wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:31 am
Since I started seriously investing in the very late 90s and not 1802, I was previously used to the stock market going up and down and down and down. I love what the stock market is doing now, but I don’t want to get “anchored” at this high number and watch a decline. I’m just being a baby about all this right now. Time for me to quit paying attention. Just hard to do. :happy
You're not being a baby, you are simply keeping things in check along with all the rest of us in one of the most love/hate bull markets since the 1995-2000 years. The experience of the 2000-2013 period (secular bear market) will take a long time for many investors to forget. The two big hits in those years were, as you know since you said you experienced them, difficult. In spite of that - you survived.

I only referenced the 1802 to put it all in the greater historical picture of returns between equities, bonds, currency, gold, and T-bills.

Do you feel you could successfully negotiate timing the market to avoid a decline, and then successfully negotiate re-investing before the next rise? That's the piece of the equation where these boards - as well as many others - have time after time after time provided data for long term investment (even with the ups and downs) that equities, on average, favor the historical longer term chart of providing returns of 6.7% (using the rule of 72, that means your investment doubles every 10 3/4 years).

There will be a correction(s). Are you prepared with your asset allocation, and your mental preparation for when they happen? They will happen. If you are not prepared yet, then the suggestion is to prepare.

I put a box around the years I have been on the planet. Investing wise, I am well aware of the latter 6 + the one that is not shown in the box (the bear from mid 2015 to mid 2016). The prior ones in the red box I was not in tune with as baseball, girls, music, and golf were more important with regard to my attention. Actually, that would apply to the years 1987 to 2017 as well. :mrgreen:

Image

The current generational bull market we are in has been happening no matter how we feel about it. Staying invested has been a good strategy.

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https://www.joefahmy.com/2017/04/29/mar ... rmedbroker

There will be corrections even during generational bull markets. Just look at the corrections in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Each of those came with pronouncements that the bull market was over. We will see the same thing this time around. Each correction will have many come out of the woodwork and claim that the bull market is over. And eventually it will be, just as the secular bull market ended in 2000.

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https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

In the meantime, as long as you are prepared with the asset allocation you are comfortable with that will allow you to reach your goals, and you continue to contribute on a monthly basis into your savings/investing - there will be a 10 3/4 years from now for you to enjoy and reflect upon. And another. And another. Add how ever many you need until your passing.
Thank you for mentioning the generational opportunit graphic/article. I came across that piece in June 2016 and its comparison of 1995 to 2017 was spot on... I expect 2018 to “analog” 1996.

grog
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by grog » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:05 pm

goingup wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:59 pm
I feel like the lack of volatility is lulling investors into believing that the stock market is "safe". The next correction is going to surprise some folks.
It has been a bizarrely steady climb ever since the presidential election. Not much news aside from the tax bill, yet the market just marches upwards like a super high yield stable value fund. I just checked and S&P 500 has not had a single negative month since October 2016. No huge months either. Mostly just 1-3% increases. It’s weird.

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randomizer
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by randomizer » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:13 pm

The absence of volatility is what bothers me. The sense that sooner or later the other shoe is going to drop. Also, that there is usual nothing to do. I barely ever need to rebalance, and I certainly don't need to tax-loss harvest.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Engineer250 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:54 pm

grog wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:05 pm
goingup wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:59 pm
I feel like the lack of volatility is lulling investors into believing that the stock market is "safe". The next correction is going to surprise some folks.
It has been a bizarrely steady climb ever since the presidential election. Not much news aside from the tax bill, yet the market just marches upwards like a super high yield stable value fund. I just checked and S&P 500 has not had a single negative month since October 2016. No huge months either. Mostly just 1-3% increases. It’s weird.
Especially in what is technically a "low inflation" couple years as well?

I think it bothers me in the way it bothers a lot of other folks; Every year it goes on and gets better and better, I'm worried the correction will be all the more miserable. I had generally assumed the next correction would not be "as bad" or economically wide-reaching as 2009. But it feels like every year things just get better and better for the stock market (but inflation and wages both seem to stay low) I wonder what the "price" is.

Also, is this thread the counter-thread to the "Stocks in Freefall" thread? Does every post here increase the chances of a correction?
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

bhsince87
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bhsince87 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:17 pm

I'm getting tired of it. Because I moved from 80/20 to 60/40 over the past few years. :annoyed
Retirement: When you reach a point where you have enough. Or when you've had enough.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Tycoon » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:31 pm

Tired of the stock market going up? No, I am not tired of making money, it's the sole reason I take the risk of investing.

I am going to be tired of the market going down; even if just for a day.
Appeal to Pity:When pity is envoked to support a statement | Appeal to Popular Sentiment:Appealing to unrelated prejudices and attitudes | Hasty Generalization:Too little evidence to support the conclusion

EnjoyIt
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by EnjoyIt » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:55 pm

I love the market going up but wouldn't mind a few months of mild volatile and flat growth to keep the public fearful. Last thing I want is to hear everyone on the street talking about buying stocks. Regardless if the market keeps going up I will keep making new contributions in bonds to maintaine my AA. I haven't had to rebalance yet.

"Please, please, it's too much winning.. . We can't take it anymore. - D. Trump

grog
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by grog » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:42 pm

The regular ol' P/E has been driven up to 24 or so. Hard to be thrilled about that. One thing Jack stresses is that stock returns ultimately derive from the earnings. He has said he expects fairly low returns given the corporate earnings growth we've seen coupled with the headwind of a high P/E.

On the other hand, it seems almost ridiculous to think stocks would be wildly overvalued given that stock returns have kind of sucked post-2000. Investors have been so deprived, a 20% year (which happened about every other year in the 80s and 90s) makes them feel like they're stealing. Has the underlying economy of the last two decades really been so anemic that some decent gains after an entire lost decade could launch us into bubble territory? I wonder in particular if the P/E is truly destined to gravitate to 14 or 17 or whatever that supposed universal constant might be. Since becoming acquainted with corporate accounting in my professional work, I've grown skeptical of comparing corporate earnings across decades. Current GAAP has "earnings" as well as "other comprehensive income" which can be a somewhat arbitrary distinction and there has been a lot of relatively recent movement toward requiring more fair value based accounting. The huge losses in 2008 were mostly write-downs on assets that companies probably wouldn't have even recognized in the old days.

Additionally, if you look at the market dividend yield as a rough valuation measure, the S&P 500 has been close to 2.0% for most of the year which is actually a bit higher than it was throughout much of the mid-2000s prior to the crash, and not much different than it's been for much of this decade. For comparison, it was around 1.1-1.2% in the late 90s. The current level doesn't look particularly bubbly.

I go back and forth on this but overall I lean optimistic. Really, what else am I going to invest in? Bonds paying 2%?

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by nick2302 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:47 am

I believe the stock market is going to continue going up especially if the tax law change results in companies bringing their foreign held money back here and paying out dividends and doing stock buy backs. Once that spams works through then we may be ready for a bubble burst.

There is no timing the market. Just strap on the seat belt and wait for the plunge just like a roller coaster ride. I got to the point I took money off the table and am paying the house off so I can have no mortgage that way when the burst happens at least I will have a hard asset to keep me living indoors.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by AnalogKid22 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:11 pm

I want my investments to tank! :P
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by AnalogKid22 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:21 pm

Bigbonds wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:09 pm
This stock market is wearing me out! :mrgreen: It’s only the second week of the year and the S&P might be up 5% by closing. This is exhausting. I’m getting tired of winning
Indeed! The DOW broke 25,000, for the first time ever, only 5 days ago, and it's already up 400 points! 26,000+ end of January seems very likely at this rate.
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

anoop
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by anoop » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:37 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:21 pm
Bigbonds wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:09 pm
This stock market is wearing me out! :mrgreen: It’s only the second week of the year and the S&P might be up 5% by closing. This is exhausting. I’m getting tired of winning
Indeed! The DOW broke 25,000, for the first time ever, only 5 days ago, and it's already up 400 points! 26,000+ end of January seems very likely at this rate.
Should be headed for 30k+ by year end--only a nominal 15% increase this year.

Admiral
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Admiral » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:14 pm

The S&P500 is up 150 points since TimeLord started this thread! Dow up almost 2,000 points! :shock:

Crazy days for sure...

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