Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:15 pm

Buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:06 pm
OP is going to be really ticked off today :twisted:
Buy, hold and rebalance is all I am doing although I have only been buying fixed income to maintain AA for some time now.
I am fine today. My total portfolio has to grow roughly 3% before I am required to rebalance again.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

jebmke
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by jebmke » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:26 pm

I've decided to not worry about it a long time ago. I had so many things that I could control that I needed to worry about I just started blocking out anything I couldn't control. Now that I have run out of carry-forward losses I'm not going to re-balance out of equity ever again. So at least now I only have to be somewhat alert for the re-balance band on the downside.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

surfstar
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by surfstar » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:38 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:52 pm
StormShadow wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:47 pm
Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Nope.

Rebalance. Problem solved.
I agree that is the case for people below or close to their number. I think once people start to get meaningfully above their number they start to be presented with new possibilities which can cause the need for re-evaluation.
What difference does it make?
You could have 10x "your number" and still work. You worry so much about retirement, but have no desire to pull the plug, it seems.
Your threads prove time and time again that you have no desire to retire after "hitting your number." You still find work valuable to you.

What good is having another door open to you, if you have no desire to walk through that door?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:00 pm

surfstar wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:38 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:52 pm
StormShadow wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:47 pm
Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Nope.

Rebalance. Problem solved.
I agree that is the case for people below or close to their number. I think once people start to get meaningfully above their number they start to be presented with new possibilities which can cause the need for re-evaluation.
What difference does it make?
You could have 10x "your number" and still work. You worry so much about retirement, but have no desire to pull the plug, it seems.
Your threads prove time and time again that you have no desire to retire after "hitting your number." You still find work valuable to you.

What good is having another door open to you, if you have no desire to walk through that door?
Yes, I did not retire when I hit my number and have no specific plans to but do have a time frame. I don't believe I need to retire to take advantage of the possibilities this market run has given, and because of that I need to re-evaluate the risk I am taking and if how much I and willing to risk giving back. As long as I can participate in the activities I want and work at the same time I probably won't be motivated to retire. If I find something that I would need to quit work to have enough time to devout to like I want it will be time to go.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

marcopolo
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by marcopolo » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:49 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:00 pm
... As long as I can participate in the activities I want and work at the same time I probably won't be motivated to retire. If I find something that I would need to quit work to have enough time to devout to like I want it will be time to go.
I can certainly understand this sentiment.

Here is what got me wanting to retire early. When I was younger (20s and early 30s) I was a lot more adventurous, trying all sorts of new and crazy things. Some i really liked, other not so much, but always willing to try new things. While, i like to think I have stayed open to new experiences, I have to admit, as life got busy with career and family, it was easy to often fall back to doing activities with which i was already familiar. Now that the kids are almost out of the house, I am feeling the urge to devote more time to discover new things, while still doing the things i know i enjoy. Most probably would not be worth quitting my job over, but i will not know which one might or might not fit that criteria without spending more time out of my comfort zone to expand my horizon.

A long time ago one of my professors described a person's knowledge as a circle. Everything you know is the inside of the circle (known-knowns). The things you know that you don't know (known-unknowns) are the circumference of the circle. The things you don't even know that you don't know (unknown-unknowns) are the things outside the circle. So, the more you learn, the more you realize you don't know. I think the same applies to experiences, hobbies etc.

So instead of waiting to find some specific things which will drive me to want to quit my job, I view the discovery as part of the process. It also helps to have a number of things already on that list.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

mak1277
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by mak1277 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:15 pm
I actually would like to see a correction, so that we know the inevitable has come and we can retire relaxed, knowing that we are not on market top any more.
Just take out 20% of your equities and put it in cash. That will be just like a correction, except you have dry powder. Mental accounting for the win!

flyingaway
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by flyingaway » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:11 pm

mak1277 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:15 pm
I actually would like to see a correction, so that we know the inevitable has come and we can retire relaxed, knowing that we are not on market top any more.
Just take out 20% of your equities and put it in cash. That will be just like a correction, except you have dry powder. Mental accounting for the win!
I think that is different. If the market keeps going up, I will feel miserable. When the market is down, everyone is at the same level.

EnjoyIt
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:16 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:11 pm
mak1277 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:15 pm
I actually would like to see a correction, so that we know the inevitable has come and we can retire relaxed, knowing that we are not on market top any more.
Just take out 20% of your equities and put it in cash. That will be just like a correction, except you have dry powder. Mental accounting for the win!
I think that is different. If the market keeps going up, I will feel miserable. When the market is down, everyone is at the same level.
Maybe since the willingness and need to take risk is now lower maybe it is time for a change in asset allocation. 70/30 can go to 55/45 which is almost like take 20% off the equities but instead of cash you put it in bonds and CDs. Same thing, but instead of dreaded market timing, you are changing your asset allocation based on your ow risk profile.

If/when a correction takes place the owner of this portfolio can re-evaluate their willingness and ability to take risk and either stay the same or transition back to 70/30.

flyingaway
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by flyingaway » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:19 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:16 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:11 pm
mak1277 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:15 pm
I actually would like to see a correction, so that we know the inevitable has come and we can retire relaxed, knowing that we are not on market top any more.
Just take out 20% of your equities and put it in cash. That will be just like a correction, except you have dry powder. Mental accounting for the win!
I think that is different. If the market keeps going up, I will feel miserable. When the market is down, everyone is at the same level.
Maybe since the willingness and need to take risk is now lower maybe it is time for a change in asset allocation. 70/30 can go to 55/45 which is almost like take 20% off the equities but instead of cash you put it in bonds and CDs. Same thing, but instead of dreaded market timing, you are changing your asset allocation based on your ow risk profile.

If/when a correction takes place the owner of this portfolio can re-evaluate their willingness and ability to take risk and either stay the same or transition back to 70/30.
While everyone here says that we should not do market timing, but we really love correct market timing.

palciparum
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by palciparum » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:41 pm

I was planning to open Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.

After reading all this, I am wondering if I should open it now or wait?

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:45 pm

palciparum wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:41 pm
I was planning to open Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.

After reading all this, I am wondering if I should open it now or wait?
Wait for what?
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

palciparum
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by palciparum » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:00 pm

Wait for market to correct or fall otherwise what I invest will depreicate

palciparum
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by palciparum » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:02 pm

I am not ivesting in Bonds, just Vanguard total stock market index fund - Admiral shares

MoonOrb
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by MoonOrb » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:05 pm

People have been asking the same thing for like five years now, saying it's not a good time to invest because the market's at an all-time high. If you have some huge chunk of change you're sitting on, you can break it up and dollar cost average your way in over the next several months/year, but if it's something in the five figures, you might as well just shove it all in the market. You're going to be leaving it there for years anyway, right?

palciparum
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by palciparum » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:13 pm

Yes. It will be long term investment.

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ruralavalon
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:32 pm

palciparum wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:41 pm
I was planning to open Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.

After reading all this, I am wondering if I should open it now or wait?
palciparum wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:00 pm
Wait for market to correct or fall otherwise what I invest will depreicate
palciparum wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:02 pm
I am not ivesting in Bonds, just Vanguard total stock market index fund - Admiral shares
palciparum wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:13 pm
Yes. It will be long term investment.
Many of the posts in this thread are tongue-in-cheek or sarcastic or attempts at humor.

Seriously, do not just sit on cash waiting for some better time to invest. Cash is almost certain to give you a negative real return net of inflation. Better to invest in something with the prospect of a positive real return.

Market timing is a fool's errand. No one can successfully do that consistently. Besides guessing when the market top has occurred, you have to guess again when the bottom has occurred in order to enter or reenter the market. Otherwise you miss the bargain prices at the market bottom, and miss the benefit of the recovery.

Market timing is a fool's errand. When reentering or entering the market at what you think is a bottom, you wait for a good day to buy, but you will never know if the next day, or next week, or next month, or next year might be a much better time to buy.

It was always my policy to invest whenever I had extra money available to invest. As a long-term investor it just doesn't matter if the market crashes tomorrow, you care what it does over the next 20, 30, or 40 years.

Please read this: "What if you only invested at market peaks?".

. . . . .

Another poster offered the idea of investing in stages, sometimes mistakenly referred to as dollar-cost averaging, instead of investing all at once. There has been a lot of discussion about the two approaches. I am in the invest it "all at once" camp. When investing a large chunk of new money, "all at once" works out better about 2/3 of the time. Please see the Vanguard paper, "Dollar-cost averaging just means taking risk later".

Wiki article, "Dollar-cost averaging". “Lump sum investing will always carries a higher expected return, because it immediately moves your funds from asset classes with lower expected returns to ones with higher expected returns. Note that higher expected returns do not guarantee that your actual returns will be higher. According to an investopedia article,[5] studies indicate that lump sum investing has produced higher returns 66% of the time”
Last edited by ruralavalon on Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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JoMoney
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by JoMoney » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:35 pm

So tired, all this market going up, up, up... I'll keep up my regular contributions, and maintain my asset allocation, but might have to start taking a nap.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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onthecusp
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by onthecusp » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:40 pm

We should not be concerned with long bull markets. How the heck would we get some supposed average return in stocks that are better than average returns in bonds any other way?

tesuzuki2002
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:04 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:45 pm
We have been buying bonds nonstop as the stocks keep increasing in order to balance our investment portfolio. That is fine and somewhat a peace of mind as when the next pullback starts, there will be bonds available to rebalance into stocks.
This! and Yes... I'd rather the market settle down a bit...

MoonOrb
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by MoonOrb » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:41 pm

This thread and others like it do give me some interesting insight into the psychology of investing. There is a stubborn part of my brain that finds it weird that people who otherwise would appear to be knowledgable investors do things like panic sell, deliberately choose asset allocations like 100/0, attempt to market time, and so on. I can't exactly say why, but it seems easy for me to just stick to a plan and follow the plan and not worry about what could have been or what will be. Over my investing lifetime, I can expect that sometimes the market will be going up and sometimes it will be going down. Sometimes it will do this sharply over days or weeks, sometimes it will happen gradually over months or years. Sometimes it will be bonds doing much better, sometimes domestic equities, sometimes international. Sometimes all of my assets and sometimes none. But over the years, my accounts will grow. I think often of the analogy of someone walking up a mountain with a yo-yo.

So when 2008-09 happened, I didn't do anything differently than what I had already planned on doing at the time. And now that this is happening, I'm not doing anything differently than what I am planning. I don't wish for a big dip as a "buying opportunity" or worry much about what happens on the days I make deposits into various accounts.

The one thing I hope really doesn't happen is that I hope that when I finally do retire and returns on my human capital cease, that I don't experience 2 or 3 years of really terrible returns in a row. On the other hand, I'm planning to have a conservative enough asset allocation that I can probably get through that okay, and if it really does happen in the beginning of retirement, I can start working again and earn at least something.

Threads like this, though, help me see it the way that others might--it helps me understand that even in this community, filled with among the most knowledgeable DIY investors on earth, there are people who apparently live or die a little bit every day with the performance of the market. My unproven hypothesis is that it's among this group of folks who the psychological risks of investing are the most profound, and who are the most likely to miss out on their fair share of returns because of constant portfolio fiddling, needlessly aggressive asset allocations at times when it seems equities will go up forever, or will panic sell when the downturns come.

EnjoyIt
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:35 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:19 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:16 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:11 pm
mak1277 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:15 pm
I actually would like to see a correction, so that we know the inevitable has come and we can retire relaxed, knowing that we are not on market top any more.
Just take out 20% of your equities and put it in cash. That will be just like a correction, except you have dry powder. Mental accounting for the win!
I think that is different. If the market keeps going up, I will feel miserable. When the market is down, everyone is at the same level.
Maybe since the willingness and need to take risk is now lower maybe it is time for a change in asset allocation. 70/30 can go to 55/45 which is almost like take 20% off the equities but instead of cash you put it in bonds and CDs. Same thing, but instead of dreaded market timing, you are changing your asset allocation based on your ow risk profile.

If/when a correction takes place the owner of this portfolio can re-evaluate their willingness and ability to take risk and either stay the same or transition back to 70/30.
While everyone here says that we should not do market timing, but we really love correct market timing.
No no no, this isn't market timing this is personal risk evaluation and adjusting asset allocation based on ones risk profile. Sounds much better right?

BTW, my IPS says that I will sit at 70/30 till I am ready to semi retire. At that point I will adjust to 60/40. When I am ready to actually retire my IPS says to go to 50/50. When SS kicks in the plan is to go back to 60/40.

flyingaway
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by flyingaway » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:07 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:35 pm
No no no, this isn't market timing this is personal risk evaluation and adjusting asset allocation based on ones risk profile. Sounds much better right?

BTW, my IPS says that I will sit at 70/30 till I am ready to semi retire. At that point I will adjust to 60/40. When I am ready to actually retire my IPS says to go to 50/50. When SS kicks in the plan is to go back to 60/40.
I do not have an IPS and don't think I need one. I just want to be right in the general direction and have no desire to optimize everything if that is even possible.

I started buying bond funds since Thanksgiving 2016, currently have about 25% of my portfolio in fixed income (bonds and CDs and stable value funds). I will keep buying fixed income part until the market cools down.
Last edited by flyingaway on Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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midareff
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by midareff » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:10 am

I suspect it will be more tiring when it stops.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:45 am

OP asks: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Hmmmmm....... nope! I have learned to accept what the market gives. So, I enjoy seeing our portfolio increase, and increase, and increase... :shock: .

However, there will come a time when the market declines. BUT, with an AA of 50% equities and 50% bonds/cash, I believe we are as well-positioned as we can be for the inevitable, whatever time frame it might appear.

For now, cheers to our good fortune! :sharebeer

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

chevca
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by chevca » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:47 am

Is this just a really long thread that could be summed up like, if you've won the game, stop playing? :happy

flyingaway
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by flyingaway » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:06 am

chevca wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:47 am
Is this just a really long thread that could be summed up like, if you've won the game, stop playing? :happy
No. My left brain tells me to stop playing, my right brain tells me what if the market goes up 17% again as someone predicted this morning on CNBC.

chevca
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by chevca » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:10 am

Maybe then, summed up as, if you've won the game, stop listening to the noise? :happy

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HomerJ
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by HomerJ » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:13 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:16 pm
Maybe since the willingness and need to take risk is now lower maybe it is time for a change in asset allocation. 70/30 can go to 55/45 which is almost like take 20% off the equities but instead of cash you put it in bonds and CDs. Same thing, but instead of dreaded market timing, you are changing your asset allocation based on your ow risk profile.

If/when a correction takes place the owner of this portfolio can re-evaluate their willingness and ability to take risk and either stay the same or transition back to 70/30.
This is just market timing. Nothing wrong with going more conservative if your need to take risk goes down as your assets increase. But you should stay at the more conservative allocation going forward. The need to take risk will not change much just because the market crashes.

Your willingness to take risk will not change either. What you are projecting is that you THINK the actual risk will be lower, and therefore you can jump back in.

But this is pure market-timing.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Admiral » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:14 am

jebmke wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:26 pm
I've decided to not worry about it a long time ago. I had so many things that I could control that I needed to worry about I just started blocking out anything I couldn't control. Now that I have run out of carry-forward losses I'm not going to re-balance out of equity ever again. So at least now I only have to be somewhat alert for the re-balance band on the downside.
Can you not rebalance in your retirement accounts? That's what I do...

EnjoyIt
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by EnjoyIt » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:15 am

flyingaway wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:06 am
chevca wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:47 am
Is this just a really long thread that could be summed up like, if you've won the game, stop playing? :happy
No. My left brain tells me to stop playing, my right brain tells me what if the market goes up 17% again as someone predicted this morning on CNBC.
This I do not like. It reminds me of the dow 20,000 talks back in 2008. I prefer it when CNBC talks about fear, lower growth, or recession coming. When the media gets too optimistic, I start to really worry.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Admiral » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:17 am

onthecusp wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:40 pm
We should not be concerned with long bull markets. How the heck would we get some supposed average return in stocks that are better than average returns in bonds any other way?
+1. Totally agree. There's a reason the average is 9% in equities over the life of the markets. Some years just have outsized gains, just as others have outsized losses. There are very few years when the market returns the average.

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cfs
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by cfs » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:17 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
. . . this is just too much of a good thing . . .
Miss Market continues to be hot [not in a sexual way]. However, here in the USA we have $2.76 TRILLION sitting in money markets as of 11/21/17 [an increase of $21.90 billion from previous week], that's a LOT of money sitting on the sidelines. Closing now, please text me when Miss Market hits Dow 30,000 [or 20,000]. Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas (I dare to say it), and thanks for reading.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bottlecap » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:17 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
I may be the only person in the world that feels this way but I need to express this emotion. I am just tired (maybe even exhausted by) of the stock market going up. The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, reduce my exposure, rebalance, buy more international, buy small cap, buy value, sell large cap growth) every week. Plus I never feel like I got lucky because I caught a 5-10% pullback when I buy my shares of VTI. While I have kept myself between the rails on my Plan, I essentially feel like I am getting paranoid waiting for a shoe to drop. Things are just going too well for investors, my mind won't accept it. I look at the change in my portfolio value YTD and my mind tells something is about to happen this is just too much of a good thing. Just worn out from telling myself to stand there and do nothing. There I said it and I feel better for it.
Yeah, I'm hoping for a big crash.

I'm also hoping that I'll die soon. I mean, it's going to happen sometime in the next 50 or 60 years anyway and it's just hanging over my head until it does.

My good health can't go on forever and my mind tells me that something is going to happen; this is just too much of a good thing. I'm worn out from all the brushing, flossing, exercise, and eating healthy.

Maybe it's not a perfect analogy, but if I felt this way about my life, it would mean something was wrong and I should do something or change something.

If you feel this way about market risk, something is wrong and you should change something in your AA. Permanently. You need a new plan.

Good luck,

JT

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:56 pm

I think my emotion is far more easily understood by those who were actively investing in 1987 and 2000 than those without that experience. Having those experiences doesn't necessarily make me a better investor it just adds to the the experiences that try to influence my behavior. Add to that I have always been a "Wall of Worry" investor and you can start to see where I am coming from even if you totally disagree. I have a very detailed plan that lays out my asset allocations every X dollar increment from where I am to levels I never expect to reach. So as long as I allow my plan discipline to overrule my emotions I should be fine no matter what that market does, but that still doesn't ease the feelings, it just prevents the feelings from becoming mistakes.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

Admiral
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Admiral » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:10 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:56 pm
I think my emotion is far more easily understood by those who were actively investing in 1987 and 2000 than those without that experience. Having those experiences doesn't necessarily make me a better investor it just adds to the the experiences that try to influence my behavior. Add to that I have always been a "Wall of Worry" investor and you can start to see where I am coming from even if you totally disagree. I have a very detailed plan that lays out my asset allocations every X dollar increment from where I am to levels I never expect to reach. So as long as I allow my plan discipline to overrule my emotions I should be fine no matter what that market does, but that still doesn't ease the feelings, it just prevents the feelings from becoming mistakes.
You don't need to justify your feelings to this board or to anyone except perhaps yourself. Emotions play a large role in investing. The key is to separate emotion from actions that can be detrimental to your long-term goal or plans. I don't think there's likely a person on the board who isn't at least somewhat leery of this run up. It will end, stocks will fall, and then they will rise at some point in the future.

If it makes you feel better emotionally why don't you lock in some gains and leave some money on the sidelines for a while? But let me throw this out before you do: If the DOW drops 20% tomorrow, that would be about 4800 points more or less. That would wipe out a lot of gains, but would simply put the index where it was about 52 weeks ago. You'd still likely be sitting on huge gains, would you not?

Da5id
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Da5id » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:23 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:56 pm
I think my emotion is far more easily understood by those who were actively investing in 1987 and 2000 than those without that experience. Having those experiences doesn't necessarily make me a better investor it just adds to the the experiences that try to influence my behavior. Add to that I have always been a "Wall of Worry" investor and you can start to see where I am coming from even if you totally disagree. I have a very detailed plan that lays out my asset allocations every X dollar increment from where I am to levels I never expect to reach. So as long as I allow my plan discipline to overrule my emotions I should be fine no matter what that market does, but that still doesn't ease the feelings, it just prevents the feelings from becoming mistakes.
I get it, I rather feel the same way. I wouldn't phrase it as "tired" as in the thread title myself. Just a sense that it "feels" like we are due for a break in this rapid rise. I permanently dialed down stocks to 50% last year due to reaching a milestone and re-evaluating my need to take risk to meet my goals. This year I've rebalancing to my targets when called for (stocks->bonds, int'l->US). I don't let my feelings change my investing choices though. Because I know that investing on feelings is the enemy of a successful plan.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by grettman » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 pm

... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bgf » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:48 pm

grettman wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 pm
... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week.
i check this thread every day now, just to have a chuckle.
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SGM
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by SGM » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:54 pm

I am getting tired of sitting around like the equivalent of old King Midas counting his growing gold pile. The numbers don't have that much meaning. You can't touch the numbers. Maybe it is time to buy a little pied-a-terre in the city. If I get a reverse mortgage on the pied-a-terre I have been told by my favorite computer scientist that both Victoria and Bobcat2 will both approve. :)

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vitaflo
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by vitaflo » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:16 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:13 am
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:16 pm
Maybe since the willingness and need to take risk is now lower maybe it is time for a change in asset allocation. 70/30 can go to 55/45 which is almost like take 20% off the equities but instead of cash you put it in bonds and CDs. Same thing, but instead of dreaded market timing, you are changing your asset allocation based on your ow risk profile.

If/when a correction takes place the owner of this portfolio can re-evaluate their willingness and ability to take risk and either stay the same or transition back to 70/30.
This is just market timing. Nothing wrong with going more conservative if your need to take risk goes down as your assets increase. But you should stay at the more conservative allocation going forward. The need to take risk will not change much just because the market crashes.

Your willingness to take risk will not change either. What you are projecting is that you THINK the actual risk will be lower, and therefore you can jump back in.

But this is pure market-timing.
I kinda disagree. The example is also about managing risk, not just market timing. For example, say I need $2m to retire and want a 50/50 portfolio at that point. And currently I have $1m and a 70/30 portfolio. If the market doubles, I'm going to want to be at 50/50. My need to take risk is off the table. If the market drops 50% after that, I'm back where I was, and I will want to go back to 70/30 as my need to take risk is back on the table.

The original example could have been phrased better, but that's not really market timing at all. It's just managing risk. People do this all the time, "age in bonds" is just one example. Except you tie risk to portfolio size not age.

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onthecusp
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by onthecusp » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:18 pm

Admiral wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:17 am
onthecusp wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:40 pm
We should not be concerned with long bull markets. How the heck would we get some supposed average return in stocks that are better than average returns in bonds any other way?
+1. Totally agree. There's a reason the average is 9% in equities over the life of the markets. Some years just have outsized gains, just as others have outsized losses. There are very few years when the market returns the average.
Thanks, and the next step does not even need to be outsized losses, maybe even more higher then just low returns (e.g. 2%) for a year or two while earnings catch up. Seeing more "market timing" posts here all the time. I know nothing except in retrospect.

staustin
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by staustin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:37 pm

S&P p/e ratio today around 24 look like, Dow at 22?

That's getting pretty rich by most any historical standard....... certainly well above the long term 15 average.

personally i keep a conservative stock allocation so i don't care if it goes up alot or down alot.. if i were heavily weighted, would be a different story.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Da5id » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:46 pm

onthecusp wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:18 pm
Admiral wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:17 am
onthecusp wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:40 pm
We should not be concerned with long bull markets. How the heck would we get some supposed average return in stocks that are better than average returns in bonds any other way?
+1. Totally agree. There's a reason the average is 9% in equities over the life of the markets. Some years just have outsized gains, just as others have outsized losses. There are very few years when the market returns the average.
Thanks, and the next step does not even need to be outsized losses, maybe even more higher then just low returns (e.g. 2%) for a year or two while earnings catch up. Seeing more "market timing" posts here all the time. I know nothing except in retrospect.
I don't think OP is market timing or advocating it. OP was just saying that the degree of market rise is making them feel anxious. No harm in saying it IMHO, sometimes just sharing your anxieties is helpful.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:20 pm

bgf wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:48 pm
grettman wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 pm
... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week.
i check this thread every day now, just to have a chuckle.
I also check this thread every day.

We have surely entered a silly season when we have a thread this length on this topic.

I tend not to worry about anything I cannot control and cannot predict.
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onthecusp
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by onthecusp » Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:24 pm

Da5id wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:46 pm
onthecusp wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:18 pm
Admiral wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:17 am
onthecusp wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:40 pm
We should not be concerned with long bull markets. How the heck would we get some supposed average return in stocks that are better than average returns in bonds any other way?
+1. Totally agree. There's a reason the average is 9% in equities over the life of the markets. Some years just have outsized gains, just as others have outsized losses. There are very few years when the market returns the average.
Thanks, and the next step does not even need to be outsized losses, maybe even more higher then just low returns (e.g. 2%) for a year or two while earnings catch up. Seeing more "market timing" posts here all the time. I know nothing except in retrospect.
I don't think OP is market timing or advocating it. OP was just saying that the degree of market rise is making them feel anxious. No harm in saying it IMHO, sometimes just sharing your anxieties is helpful.
Agree, if anything Mr TL was saying that the source of exhaustion is his resistance to his emotional desire to market time.

"The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, reduce my exposure, rebalance, buy more international, buy small cap, buy value, sell large cap growth) every week."

My comment about more market timing posts was meant to be more general, not just this thread.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:58 pm

bgf wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:48 pm
grettman wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 pm
... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week.
i check this thread every day now, just to have a chuckle.
Quite an interesting reaction. I don't know what you find amusing.
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bobcat2
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bobcat2 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:00 pm

SGM wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:54 pm
I am getting tired of sitting around like the equivalent of old King Midas counting his growing gold pile. The numbers don't have that much meaning. You can't touch the numbers. Maybe it is time to buy a little pied-a-terre in the city. If I get a reverse mortgage on the pied-a-terre I have been told by my favorite computer scientist that both Victoria and Bobcat2 will both approve. :)
Actually Bobcat2 is not so sure this a great idea. A reverse mortgage needs to be on your primary residence and that will be difficult to validate, if you have posted at Bogleheads that the residence is a pied-a-terre. :wink:
In finance risk is defined as uncertainty that is consequential (nontrivial). | The two main methods of dealing with financial risk are the matching of assets to goals & diversifying.

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sapphire96
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by sapphire96 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:17 pm

I forgot which member mentioned this, but assuming if we eliminated all volitility, the stock market would reach record highs every day.

If the market goes up 5%, your money grew by 5%.
If the market goes down 5%, the market is selling at a 5% discount.

Ben

SimplicityNow
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by SimplicityNow » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:24 pm

I've been visiting this thread since it was posted without commenting until now. Comments have been interesting. Here are mine.

I feel that most investors, and at least some Bogleheads, can relate to what you are saying.

I also think that since you are going to stay the course, despite the fact that you are concerned, worried and feel like something is going to happen, etcetera, marks you as a true Boglehead. Of course none of that makes it any easier for us to stay the course.

I must admit I worry a little as well. I also feel that if I stop worrying, then that's probably the very time I should be worrying, lol.

I bought some VTIAX today because my cash got too high and as part of my IPS it was time to move it into stocks and my international percentage was at the lower end of the range of what my IPS states it should be. To be honest it felt a little better putting it into international instead of domestic because some feel it isn't highly as valued as domestic. That said, my choice was driven by my IPS and not my feelings.

Emotions are a tough thing.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by JeffroZ » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:29 pm

I must say this recent run up at the end of the year has left me anxious. My IPS has me increase bond holdings by 1% and rebalance on January 1. My additions during the year are fixed and I have only drifted down 3% below my target in bonds over the year. I know this is my plan and stay the course but I just oh so want to lock in that 4% now. I know this irrational.

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