Is a crash coming soon?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Topic Author
Jacky817
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:37 am

Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Jacky817 »

Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha

Cheers,
Jack
Last edited by Jacky817 on Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
alex_686
Posts: 13320
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:39 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by alex_686 »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
Whakamole
Posts: 1765
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:59 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Whakamole »

alex_686 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
H-Town
Posts: 5905
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:08 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by H-Town »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
The key thing here is not to anticipate a crash, but to NOT SELL during the crash.
If you stay on the sideline with a lot of cash, odds are you'll be missing out market rally. I can bet with good confidence that you can't time market rally.
Time is the ultimate currency.
TheHouse7
Posts: 576
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:40 am
Location: Washington State

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by TheHouse7 »

No a crash is not coming any time soon (3+ years).

I'm a young investor praying every day for a market crash, and for me to keep my job. :twisted:
"PSX will always go up 20%, why invest in anything else?!" -Father-in-law early retired.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by HomerJ »

Set your Asset Allocation assuming a crash could happen tomorrow. Because it could.

This is true all the time.

A crash will happen. No one knows when. Be prepared for it to happen tomorrow. If you are close to retirement, you should have a conservative portfolio; if you are young, you can have a more aggressive portfolio, because you can ride out a crash and wait for the recovery.

Note that how long the market has gone since the last crash is not a variable. Note that market valuations are not a variable.

A crash WILL happen. And it could happen at anytime.

If you are already prepared for a crash happening tomorrow, it doesn't matter if the chances for it happening are higher or lower than yesterday. Because they are never zero. So you should always be prepared.

This makes investing very simple, and makes it easier to ignore the noise.
User avatar
peetsperk
Posts: 372
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 3:02 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by peetsperk »

Welcome to the forum Jacky817. It looks like you have been doing a bit of homework believing it will help you predict when the market will go down or up. It’s a fool’s game. Don’t waste your valuable time. And, I don’t understand why you would be reluctant to invest regularly. My recommendation is to read The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns by John (Jack) C. Bogle. It’s an important first step toward a lifetime of investing. Good luck. :moneybag
User avatar
oldcomputerguy
Moderator
Posts: 17932
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 5:50 am
Location: Tennessee

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by oldcomputerguy »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... correction
"The evidence is very clear that professional mutual fund managers cannot predict the stock market. For example, in his famous book “A Random Walk down Wall Street,” Burton Malkiel cited a Goldman Sachs study that examined mutual funds’ cash holdings for the period 1970 through 1989.

In their efforts to time the market, fund managers raise cash holdings when they believe the market will decline and lower cash holdings when they become bullish. The study found that, over the period it examined, mutual fund managers miscalled all nine major turning points."
(Emphasis added by me)

Don't worry about it. Invest according to your desired asset allocation, and stay the course. Nobody knows when the next crash will come. Nobody.
There is only one success - to be able to spend your life in your own way. (Christopher Morley)
User avatar
TD2626
Posts: 637
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by TD2626 »

TheHouse7 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:05 pm No a crash is not coming any time soon (3+ years).

I'm a young investor praying every day for a market crash, and for me to keep my job. :twisted:
For someone with a long term time horizon and an iron stomach, a crash drives away from the market those who are inappropriately taking excessive risk and allows the rest to rebalance or DCA into low priced shares. In this regard, a crash could be viewed as helpful. Volatility is a necessary part of investing, it has its role to play.

For those inappropriately taking risk beyond their willingness, ability, and need, a crash on the other hand can be devastating, and could lead to the inability to afford food or shelter. That is why one only invests based on their willingness, ability, and need to take risk.

Also, staying the course and not market timing is central to the Boglehead philosophy. Reliably predicting a crash is hard and in my opinion likely impossible for even experts to do. Look at all the times "experts" have gotten things wrong.
alex_686
Posts: 13320
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:39 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by alex_686 »

Whakamole wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
Yes, but for the year 1987 the market was up over 5%. One bad day does not break a bull market.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
KyleAAA
Posts: 9498
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by KyleAAA »

I am extremely confident in my prediction that a crash will probably happen at some point in the future.
Whakamole
Posts: 1765
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:59 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Whakamole »

alex_686 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:29 pm
Whakamole wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
Yes, but for the year 1987 the market was up over 5%. One bad day does not break a bull market.
Not arguing that, but I would still consider Black Monday a market crash.
User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 52211
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by nisiprius »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
The question is--and it's worth actually keeping a record because we fool ourselves about our own predictions and premonitions--if you were to look back at your feelings, and the best expert consensus from reading WSJ or MarketWatch or whatever... how accurate have those been, and would you have been better off acting on them or not?

Two cases in point. First, Larry Swedroe regularly does a review of how the "sure things," the almost universal consensus expectations of the financial world, have been holding up. These are excellent. Read them. Take them to heart. At the start of the year he names a list of things that knowledgeable investors all expect, and then he tracks what really happens during the year.
Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In
He reviews eight "sure things," universally expected by knowledgable investors. Two of them came true, six did not. For example:
The eighth sure thing was that, with non-U.S. developed market and emerging market economies generally growing at a slower pace than the U.S. economy (and with many emerging markets hurt by weak commodity prices, slower growth in China’s economy, the Fed tightening monetary policy and a rising dollar), international developed market stocks would underperform U.S. stocks in 2017. Through September 30, 2017, the Vanguard Developed Markets ETF (VEA) returned 21.0%, outperforming VOO. Score: -1.
Another: in April of 2014, Bloomberg polled 67 economists on their expectations for the ten-year Treasury yield over the next six months. Every one of them, every one, 67 out of 67, 100% said yields would rise, the only differences being by how much. Yields fell.

My personal conclusion is that by far the best thing to do is, first, adjust your stock allocation to your risk tolerance, and set it low enough that you really can stay the course. Then stay the course. In other words, in the phrase attributed to J. P. Morgan, if you can't sleep because you're worrying about the stock market, "sell down to your sleeping point." You have to say "Eh, easy come, easy go." Do not increase your stock allocation during a long bull market like the one we are in, through fear of missing out, do not count on seeing the bear market coming in time to cut back... just pick a number you can live with and then live with it.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
User avatar
greg24
Posts: 4511
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:34 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by greg24 »

Maybe.
Fallible
Posts: 8798
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 3:44 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Fallible »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
Welcome to the forum!

These are the kinds of thoughts and questions that should bo considered when setting an allocation, except that there should be no question that a crash is coming - it will and nobody knows when or how long or how severe. Instead, the question should be how much you can afford to lose in a market downturn before you will need the money. See the "Risk Tolerance" and "Asset Allocation" pages in the wiki.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Risk_tolerance
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
sliqua
Posts: 22
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 5:36 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by sliqua »

TheHouse7 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:05 pm No a crash is not coming any time soon (3+ years).

I'm a young investor praying every day for a market crash, and for me to keep my job. :twisted:
I'm glad to see a fellow young investor recognizing the last part of your statement. So many of my friends (with liberal arts degrees) callously talk about how they can't wait for the next crash, as if their jobs in publishing and other soft arts will survive another significant downturn or correction.
aristotelian
Posts: 12277
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:05 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by aristotelian »

Gut feeling says 5-10% correction followed by flat market for a while.
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by lostdog »

Time in the market is better than timing the market.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Scobie
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:23 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Scobie »

A crash could happen and then when you decide it is safe to get in and another crash could happen. Nothing is certain.

Set it and forget it.
SirToolman
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:35 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by SirToolman »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm 1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.
There is no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term OR long term OR any term. Yes, its been 9 years since the previous crash, but it may never crash again. Or, it might crash tomorrow and never recover.
User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 1128
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Portfolio7 »

If you are young, the most effective element of your wealth building is to save more. Assuming you have a reasonable AA, are averaging in with paycheck contributions, and that you don't panic and sell in a crash - then all that's really in your control is the saving part.

I don't expect a 30% + event in the next 5 years. But then who ever does?
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
PFInterest
Posts: 2684
Joined: Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:25 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by PFInterest »

there is always a crash coming.
Dottie57
Posts: 12379
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:43 pm
Location: Earth Northern Hemisphere

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Dottie57 »

Portfolio7 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:01 pm If you are young, the most effective element of your wealth building is to save more. Assuming you have a reasonable AA, are averaging in with paycheck contributions, and that you don't panic and sell in a crash - then all that's really in your control is the saving part.

I don't expect a 30% + event in the next 5 years. But then who ever does?
Keep saving. I started at 30 - had no money before then .... Starting early and consistently contributing makes a big difference.
User avatar
peetsperk
Posts: 372
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 3:02 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by peetsperk »

aristotelian wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:05 pm Gut feeling says 5-10% correction followed by flat market for a while.
I'm not banking on aristotelian's gut feeling and I hope he isn't either. :P
User avatar
Toons
Posts: 14467
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Toons »

Yes,
Next Question :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
sambb
Posts: 3257
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:31 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by sambb »

crash coming soon matters less than crash coming right before you hit your number and potentially change allocation, or right before retirement
kathyauburn
Posts: 192
Joined: Thu May 07, 2015 12:25 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by kathyauburn »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:14 pm Set your Asset Allocation assuming a crash could happen tomorrow. Because it could.

This is true all the time.
I second this. If you're worried about a crash, your asset allocation is wrong.

Your asset allocation should reflect your risk tolerance:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=229259

Once you determine how to allow your risk tolerance to shape your asset allocation, you're done. You don't need to ask questions such as yours because the answer doesn't matter. Just don't take the phrase "risk tolerance" lightly. Read the thread I linked to above and try to understand that risk tolerance is highly subjective and very complex, a result of many factors that can and do change. I think it's safe to say that most investors who have not had their risk tolerance tested are overinvested in equities.
Last edited by kathyauburn on Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 19591
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi - white sandy beaches, N. Arizona 1 mile high.

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Sandtrap »

I hope so.
Then prices will be a bargain.
I'm ready. :D
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 6006
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:07 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by CyclingDuo »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
30 years ago today, obviously there was a crash that negated 22.6%. Fast forward to 30 years from today. Where do you think the market will be on October 19, 2047? A lot of swings, ups and downs between now and then - but think about it. Put a longer term time frame on it and consider what the growth potential is for the next 3 decades.

Keep your eye on the prize. Whatever happens between now and then is subterfuge, right? :mrgreen:
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel | "Pick a bushel, save a peck!" - Grandpa
User avatar
CULater
Posts: 2832
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 9:59 am
Location: Hic sunt dracones

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by CULater »

I just decided today that my risk tolerance is 10% lower than it was yesterday --- so I reduced my stock allocation accordingly. :?
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
User avatar
Nate79
Posts: 9372
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:24 pm
Location: Delaware

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Nate79 »

CULater wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:44 pm I just decided today that my risk tolerance is 10% lower than it was yesterday --- so I reduced my stock allocation accordingly. :?
Why?
User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2465
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by ofcmetz »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:14 pm Set your Asset Allocation assuming a crash could happen tomorrow. Because it could.

This is true all the time.

^This is exactly my mindset.

The exact time and reason for a crash is unpredictable. All we know is that one day there will be one.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2465
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by ofcmetz »

Sandtrap wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:43 pm I hope so.
Then prices will be a bargain.
I'm ready. :D
Maybe or maybe not. If something fundamentally changes in the world or economy then even with a crash things may not be cheap.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 19591
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi - white sandy beaches, N. Arizona 1 mile high.

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Sandtrap »

ofcmetz wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:33 am
Sandtrap wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:43 pm I hope so.
Then prices will be a bargain.
I'm ready. :D
Maybe or maybe not. If something fundamentally changes in the world or economy then even with a crash things may not be cheap.
So true. But, something will be a bargain. R/E. Apartment buildings. Who knows. :D
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
BogleBoogie
Posts: 745
Joined: Tue May 13, 2014 11:15 am
Location: AK

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by BogleBoogie »

"Nobody knows nothing." -Jack Bogle

(Also, no one on this forum knows when/if a crash is coming)
BogleBoogie
Posts: 745
Joined: Tue May 13, 2014 11:15 am
Location: AK

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by BogleBoogie »

Nate79 wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:07 am
CULater wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:44 pm I just decided today that my risk tolerance is 10% lower than it was yesterday --- so I reduced my stock allocation accordingly. :?
Why?
Good question. What life circumstances changed that reduced your need or ability to take risk?
hulburt1
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:17 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by hulburt1 »

Hope so I can buy-more at a lower price.
User avatar
bottlecap
Posts: 6906
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 10:21 pm
Location: Tennessee

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by bottlecap »

"It feels like" is not a part of my IPS.

JT
goblue100
Posts: 1729
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:31 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by goblue100 »

Seems to me there are far too many of these threads for a bubble bursting crash to occur. When the forum is full of people bragging about their 120% equity positions, then we can fear the crash. Right now I believe all we have to fear is a correction, which as pointed out can happen anytime. But my crystal ball is as cloudy as everyone else's.
"Confusion has its cost" - Crosby, Stills and Nash
User avatar
Ged
Posts: 3945
Joined: Mon May 13, 2013 1:48 pm
Location: Roke

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Ged »

Whakamole wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
A recession is a significant decline in the economy lasting at least 6 months.

From 1985 to 2007, a period economists call the 'Great Moderation' we went 22 years where the recessions were characterized by very mild economic declines.
User avatar
bertilak
Posts: 10725
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:23 pm
Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by bertilak »

"Is a crash coming soon?"


I think the biggest unknown is your definition of "soon."
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 19591
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi - white sandy beaches, N. Arizona 1 mile high.

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Sandtrap »

Ged wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:56 am
Whakamole wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
A recession is a significant decline in the economy lasting at least 6 months.

From 1985 to 2007, a period economists call the 'Great Moderation' we went 22 years where the recessions were characterized by very mild economic declines.
How much of a decline is a "significant" decline?
Thanks.
j
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
User avatar
serbeer
Posts: 1304
Joined: Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:09 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by serbeer »

Here is Kiplinger article that attemps to answer this question:
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/invest ... t-end.html
You can choose whether to believe it or not :)
looking
Posts: 709
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:14 pm
Location: morgan hill ,ca

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by looking »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha

Cheers,
Jack
Hey Jack
trillion question
HiroProtag
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Mar 06, 2017 1:42 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by HiroProtag »

I believe in the maxim that you can't time the market, and am invested accordingly.

However, I also believe in basic economics of supply and demand. As we hit ATHs, people will take profits, increasing supply, and reducing price. Maybe this is an oversimplification, but it's almost impossible not to believe a pullback is coming in the short term.
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 19275
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:33 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by nedsaid »

I don't know. Nobody rings a bell before the market is ready to crash. Pretty much, just about anything the market does surprises me. When it goes up, I am surprised. When it goes down, I am surprised. I have expressed my opinions about the direction of interest rates, and alas my record as an interest rate forecaster is not very good. No one would hire me as a political consultant, as developments there catch me by surprise. My record as an economic forecaster is pretty uneven.

I think of Elaine Garzarelli, who successfully predicted the 1987 stock market crash. Since then, she has been wrong about almost everything. Bob Brinker put a "sell" on the stock market in early 2000 but followed up with his disastrous QQQ call. Howard Ruff predicts doom that never seems to happen. Ravi Batra's second Great Depression never arrived. So don't put too much faith in these. An informed guess is better than an uninformed guess but not by as much as you would think.
A fool and his money are good for business.
User avatar
White Coat Investor
Posts: 17409
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:11 pm
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by White Coat Investor »

Jacky817 wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha

Cheers,
Jack
Write down that prediction and check back in two years to see how accurate you were. I find predicting the future to be so tough that it isn't worth doing for me, but maybe you're better at it than I am.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
scone
Posts: 1457
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:46 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by scone »

It's not about the markets so much, it's your time horizon. Short term money should be in safer investments, long term money can be risked in the stock markets. But there is always risk, of one sort or another, it's just part of life. You have some control of the risks you take, but there's a good bit of luck involved in your results, no matter what you decide.
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore
rgs92
Posts: 3436
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:00 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by rgs92 »

Nice post scone. That says it all nice and succinctly. Best to you.
User avatar
Ged
Posts: 3945
Joined: Mon May 13, 2013 1:48 pm
Location: Roke

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Ged »

Sandtrap wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:21 am How much of a decline is a "significant" decline?
Thanks.
j
This is what the NBER says:

http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.pdf

It seems to me that they are looking for places where the slope changes sign, rather than peak to trough distances.
Post Reply