2018 SS COLA contest

Non-investing personal finance issues including insurance, credit, real estate, taxes, employment and legal issues such as trusts and wills
Post Reply
Alan S.
Posts: 6948
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 6:07 pm
Location: Prescott, AZ

2018 SS COLA contest

Post by Alan S. » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:13 pm

Who will be first to correctly calculate and post the 2018 SS COLA here?
Sept. CPI-W to be announced at 8:30 AM EDT tomorrow 10/13. Unofficial non govt sources will probably also post it before SSA does.

User avatar
David Jay
Posts: 4090
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:54 am
Location: Michigan

Re: 2018 SS COLA contest

Post by David Jay » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:21 pm

Alan:

Do you know if 2016 AWI comes out at the same time? It has been issued in October in recent years. My wife turned 60 in 2016 so that is the only number needed to calculate her PIA (she will not have any additional years with income).
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

TLC
Posts: 52
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:20 pm

Re: 2018 SS COLA contest

Post by TLC » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:57 pm

According to my calculations, here are some ranges for September's CPI-W and the resulting SS COLA:

Code: Select all

From	To	COLA
233.807	234.511	1.0%
234.512	235.216	1.1%
235.217	235.921	1.2%
235.922	236.626	1.3%
236.627	237.331	1.4%
237.332	238.036	1.5%
238.037	238.741	1.6%
238.742	239.446	1.7%
239.447	240.151	1.8%
240.152	240.856	1.9%
240.857	241.561	2.0%
241.562	242.266	2.1%
242.267	242.971	2.2%
242.972	243.676	2.3%
243.677	244.381	2.4%
244.382	245.086	2.5%
245.087	245.794	2.6%
245.795	246.499	2.7%
246.500	247.204	2.8%
247.205	247.909	2.9%
247.910	248.614	3.0%

TLC
Posts: 52
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:20 pm

Re: 2018 SS COLA contest

Post by TLC » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:30 am

The Sep-17 CPI-W was 240.939; so, the 2018 SSA COLA should be 2.0%.

pshonore
Posts: 5739
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:21 pm

Re: 2018 SS COLA contest

Post by pshonore » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:32 am

My guess for the Social Security COLA for 2018 is 2.0% The September CPI that was released today is 240.939 That make the three month (Jul Aug Sept) average 239.668 compared to 235.057 for the same period last year. Won't do much for the average SS recipient whose monthly benefit is $1355. Most, if not all of the their increase will go toward paying for Part B Medicare premium . (That figure should be released very soon) That's three years in a row for no or little increase for the average recipient. Of course at least 1/2 the increase for those with higher SS benefits will go toward Part B premiums for those in the hold-harmless category.

TLC
Posts: 52
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:20 pm

Re: 2018 SS COLA contest

Post by TLC » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:30 am

David Jay wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:21 pm
Do you know if 2016 AWI comes out at the same time? It has been issued in October in recent years
The AWI for 2016 was reported today to be 48,664.73.
source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awiseries.html

User avatar
David Jay
Posts: 4090
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:54 am
Location: Michigan

Re: 2018 SS COLA contest

Post by David Jay » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:43 am

TLC wrote:
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:30 am
David Jay wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:21 pm
Do you know if 2016 AWI comes out at the same time? It has been issued in October in recent years
The AWI for 2016 was reported today to be 48,664.73.
source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awiseries.html
Thanks, I saw your other post will all the numbers...
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

Alan S.
Posts: 6948
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 6:07 pm
Location: Prescott, AZ

Re: 2018 SS COLA contest

Post by Alan S. » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:09 am

Congratulations to TLC contest winner, and pshonore posted just two minutes thereafter.

Post Reply