Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

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tc101
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Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

Post by tc101 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:59 am

I'm writing a spread sheet macro. What do you think are reasonable assumptions for average real growth rate over the next 10 years for a 50/50 portfolio? What about the next 20 years?

My guess, 10 years 1-2%, 20 years 2-4%.
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livesoft
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Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

Post by livesoft » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:06 am

0% is used by the Fidelity planner.
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Sandtrap
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Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

Post by Sandtrap » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:07 am

IMHO 10 years 0-4%, 20 years 0-4%.

Interspersed with an occasional unrecoverable economic "black swan" event. :shock:
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tc101
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Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

Post by tc101 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:14 pm

Has there ever been a 20 year period with 0% real growth rate for a 50/50 stock bond portfolio?
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jwhitaker
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Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

Post by jwhitaker » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:30 pm

You (and everyone else) should read "Capital in the 21st Century". It gives a good perspective on just how unusual the period from WW1 to the 1980s was. When we analyze historical returns and that is 50%+ of the data and say "Gee stocks average 7% real return!" or "A 5% withdrawal rate only failed twice!" or "You only need US equities, they returned more than international!", we really are kidding ourselves.

lazyday
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Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

Post by lazyday » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:49 pm

tc101 wrote: ā†‘
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:14 pm
Has there ever been a 20 year period with 0% real growth rate for a 50/50 stock bond portfolio?
Sure, but maybe not in the US yet. Give it time.

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k66
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Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

Post by k66 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:32 pm

food for thought from an older thread on similar topic:

Recent historical returns on 50:50 AA?
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