Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

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Mel Lindauer
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Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:49 pm

Hello Everyone:

My fellow team member, Mel Turner, will be handling the duties of moderating the Question & Answer sessions with a number of authors and experts at our upcoming 2017 Bogleheads Conference which takes place October 18-20

The Expert Panel members include (in alphabetical order):
Christine Benz
Dr. Bill Bernstein
Jonathan Clements
Mike Piper
Allan Roth

We’re accepting questions for the Experts Panel members from you (and yes, you may ask more than one question). This is your opportunity to ask any question (or questions) about something you’ve always wished you could ask.

Your question(s) may be directed to the entire Experts Panel or to an individual member of the Panel. If you want to direct a question to an individual member, simply start your question with “A question for …..” and fill in the name of the Expert Panel member you’d like to address your particular question to. Otherwise, your question(s) will be directed to the entire Panel.

Please respond with your question(s) right here one this thread.

Fire away!

Best regards,

Mel

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by SGM » Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:04 am

For Allan Roth: Has he found a diversified international bond fund with low costs? What bond funds is he recommending for tax advantaged accounts?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:49 am

Thanks for the question SGM. I hope it makes the cut at our Bogleheads Conference in October.

Anyone else?

Kupuna (AKA TOM, AKA Mel Turner)
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Jiu Jitsu Fighter » Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:34 am

For Dr. Bernstein - he recommends precious metal mining stocks for those who can sit through long periods of time with drag on a portfolio but benefit from its non-correlation to the general stock market. Why not recommend just gold or a general commodities fund (futures)? Gold mining stocks performed horribly during the last gold bull market. Is it because some pay dividends or because they are more volatile allowing more instances to rebalance?

Thanks,
JJF

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:54 am

Thanks JJ Fighter. Your question is in the mix.

Kupuna
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:05 pm

I will be increasing my TIPS holdings in Roth IRA accounts. Taxes are irrelevant in Roth. I am considering several options as follows:
1. Buying individual TIPS at Treasury auctions and on the secondary market
2. Buying Vanguard's short-term TIPS fund (VTAPX) (er = 0.07%)
3. Buying Vanguards intermediate-term TIPS fund (VIPSX) (er = 0.20%)
4. Buying PIMCO's ETF LTPZ (er = 0.20%)

I am inclined to get a combination of weighted VTAPX and LTPZ to match my life expectancy. Please comment if this is a prudent strategy.


Also, what is your opinion about brokered CDs in Vanguard and Fidelity Roth IRAs? Credit Unions may have higher rates but opening an IRA at a CU is usually quite painful.

Thank you,

Victoria
Last edited by VictoriaF on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by basspond » Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:01 am

To Mike Piper: Should one build their portfolio with "tax buckets"? That is is there a percentage you recommend for having pre-tax, after tax, and Roth? And what are the advantages and disadvantages of converting pre-tax into Roth during retirement years?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:36 am

Open to any one who wants to answer it:
For those with limited tax deferred space available when saving for retirement and wanting to build an inflation protected ladder of bonds, is it okay to hold individual Tips in taxable or is there a specific point in tax bracket when this is not an optimum choice?
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by cherijoh » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:45 pm

I'd love to hear any of the experts opinions on AA by tax treatment of the account (taxable, traditional retirement, Roth) and what makes sense as you approach retirement. I'm still working but plan to retire within next 2 years.

I have been reducing my overall stock allocation, but to date all my bond funds have been in traditional. This has allowed me to grow Roth at an accelerated pace relative to my more conservative allocation in Traditional retirement and to keep future RMDs in check. But now as I approach retirement, I worry about sequence of return risk and wonder if I should bring my Roth AA closer to my overall AA to preserve its value.

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:53 pm

Mel:

This is a question for each member of the Panel:

"What is the single most important financial advice you would give to a new investor?"

Best wishes.
Taylor
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by jbranx » Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:45 pm

1) Ask each panel member if they were constructing a Three Fund Portfolio for a young investor which asset classes (or funds/ETFs) they would include. Plus, same question on a Four or Five Fund Portfolio.

2) Again, each panel member: What tilts, such as small value domestic or international, if any, would they recommend for a long-term index investor.

3) For Dr. Bernstein: Are there any asset classes still missing in the ETF universe that you would like to see covered by some provider?

4) All Members: Bill Sharpe has advocated an all global bonds and stocks fund or ETF, cap weighted. Is that a practical idea, and what are your thoughts on an investor using only the Vanguard World as their single stock allocation?

5)Clements: Smart Beta is now the flavor of the moment for new funds. Do investors need any of these newfangled portfolios?

6)Bernstein and Bogle: Globalization is now under attack in many quarters and some pundits are arguing the US imposed liberal order post WW II is over. Do any of these changes affect how investors should choose asset classes going forward?

7) C. Benz: Morningstar is reportedly expanding its business model to include more asset management, per a Barron's cover story. Can you explain what that means for M'star clients. How will asset mgt. be walled off from other parts of the M'star business to prevent conflicts?

8) Bernstein and Bogle: Value stocks have done poorly recently. Was this just an anomaly that is no longer relevant or is it driven by human behavior traits that are enduring?

9) Clements: You were a voice in the journalist wilderness early in your career in advocating passive investing. It's now the journalist flavor of the decade. Tell us why it took so long for investors to wake up, and can we expect the journalists to tone down their enthusiasm going forward?

10) All: US growth seems unable to rise above 2% for long, productivity is not growing, and demographics--especially immigration--are not encouraging. What proposals would you make to improve long-term economic growth in the US?

11) All: Give us your thoughts on what active managements firms will look like in five or ten years? Will we see a massive merger and acquisition trend? Will fees go down across the board?

12) Dr. Bernstein, can you discuss your latest thinking on rebalancing benefits, if any, and, let's assume we own Taylor's three-fund portfolio. What asset class additions might give us the best benefits from rebalancing?

13) Dr Bernstein, many Bogleheads have reached the "enough" stage (25X expenses or greater, close to SS/Medicare etc) and yet we have a hard time switching from accumulation to very safe preserving. What is your counsel? If you had to name some good very safe/low duration fixed-income ETFs from Vanguard/or maybe others, what would those be?
Last edited by jbranx on Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:10 am

Dear Experts,

Cyber Security, including Identity Security, is now an integral part of the Financial Security. Please share your strategies and recommendations.

Victoria
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by nisiprius » Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:46 pm

In a video noted by a forum participant, Steven Bregman of Horizon Kinetics talked about the S&P 500 index switching to a float-adjusted basis, which occurred in September 2005. Bregman implied that this was a highly significant event, that it was remiss of S&P did not recalculate the historical data prior to 2005, and that due to the change the S&P 500 has had higher performance before 2005 and has had and should be expected to have lower performance going forward. Comments?
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by pop77 » Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:06 pm

Is market cap based index investing amplifying the FAANG stock bubble?
What are the downsides of fundamental indexes?

Each provide an example of one financial concept that you believed strongly in which you have changed your position

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:23 pm

Taylor, I've got your question in the mix and thank you to all the others.

jbranx, thanks for the thoughtful questions.

VictoriaF, you're input is always welcome.

Keep 'um coming.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by MindTheGAAP » Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:35 am

Given that the impact to Bond Funds have not been what may have been expected in a rising rate environment, would any of the panelists now consider Long Term bonds (with their lower correlation to the US Stock Market) be a plausible safety/volatility play rather than the more typical Short Term or Intermediate bond funds?

Also - it seems that 'Alternatives' (commodities, REITs) are currently trendy. Do the panelists feel that the typical broad coverage index fund (TSM, TISM, etc.) cover these facets of the market sufficiently for the average investor? Would they recommend a portfolio value that an investor begin to consider these slices/dices or is it more related to the time horizon until planned use of the funds? Example - would a 30-year old be better using Alternatives to give some long-term diversification compared to someone in their late-50's/60s.

These may be too simplistic of questions to be asked in the forum mentioned but appreciate the opportunity to at least pose the questions for submission.
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by scooter » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:07 am

Retired with 50% stock funds, 30% bond funds and 20%mm funds.

Is 20% in MM enough to offset a big market correction, if it happens and don't need any of money for next three years.

Thanks

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by jbranx » Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:56 pm

kupuna wrote:Taylor, I've got your question in the mix and thank you to all the others.

jbranx, thanks for the thoughtful questions.

VictoriaF, you're input is always welcome.

Keep 'um coming.

TOM
You're welcome, Tom. Here's number 12

Dr. Bernstein, can you discuss your latest thinking on rebalancing benefits, if any, and, let's assume we own Taylor's three-fund portfolio. What asset class additions might give us the best benefits from rebalancing?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Miriam2 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:22 pm

For Jonathan Clements - You have written how important it is to do a Financial Fire Drill. Could you please explain how you would advise us to do our Financial Fire Drill and at what point and how often we should do it?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by simplesauce » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:22 pm

A question for Jonathan Clements. Where do you stand on the "no international" vs "some international" vs "half international" debate on portfolio construction for a US investor? Should we avoid unnecessary risks like currency risk, political risk, investor protections overseas, etc.

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Ron Scott » Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:22 pm

1. How will population demographics in the worlds' top economies affect the performance of their stock markets and various bond offerings, and how might that affect traditional conservative asset allocation schemes?

2. Assume the US actually abdicates the leadership position it has held for 60 years in the world, countries form splinter alliances based more on short-term opportunity than long-term stability, and political risk spreads across global markets. What do the smart investors do?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:39 am

A couple of questions for Mike Piper.

First question: Assume one starts receiving Social Security benefits at age 62, then suspends them at FRA and resumes at age 70. To make the math simple, assume FRA is age 66, and that benefits are suspended exactly 48 months (four years). Assume further that benefits are annually COLA'd during the four years between initial filing and suspension.

When benefits are resumed at age 70, is the benefit amount calculated by adding delayed credits to the initial benefit amount, or to the COLA'd amount at the time of suspension?

Second question: In our household (husband and wife filing jointly), our PIA's are projected to be within about $100 of each other, and our ages are fairly close (I'm 3-1/2 years older than my wife). In our case, most of the advice I've sen for "lower / younger earner vs higher / older earner" filing strategies tends not to be applicable. Any thoughts on appropriate strategies for filing for Social Security benefits in such a situation, where the two earners are fairly close to each other in terms of PIA and age?
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by John1960 » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:52 pm

For all panelists, do they consider all asset classes very expensive e at this time? If yes, how to invest?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by OZAR » Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:34 pm

To Dr Bernstein,

For an all taxable investor in highest tax bracket do you have an updated asset allocation for 'Taxable Ted' ?
Would appreciate more discussion on the fixed income.

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by patriciamgr2 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:07 pm

post deleted by poster

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by vthokie100 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:05 am

I'd like to ask the panel's opinion of recent discussions about passive index investing growing to a high percent of total investments and distorting or harming the market as a whole. And if they do believe that the total percent of investments being held in index funds is a problem, then what should an average investor who holds a portfolio of index funds do?

Thank you

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:42 pm

Thanks to everyone for your questions to the Expert Panel at the 2017 Bogleheads Conference. They are all very thoughtful.

I am in the process of reviewing and organizing them. Questions from those attending will have priority.

Feel free to submit question on the forum for the next week and then I will do the final processing.

Thanks to all who have taken the time to submit.

Kupuna / TOM
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by celia » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:17 pm

kupuna wrote:
Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:42 pm
Thanks to everyone for your questions to the Expert Panel at the 2017 Bogleheads Conference. They are all very thoughtful.

I am in the process of reviewing and organizing them. Questions from those attending will have priority.
For those NOT attending, do they get any feedback on what the answer was? Will the rest of us also get to read/hear the answers?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:27 pm

celia

That is a valid question. The entire conference is done by volunteers. Even us organizers and the experts pay to attend the same as everyone else.

There are a several people who volunteer by taking pictures, video taping several of the events and VictoriaF does a super job of transcribing parts of the conference and they all share it on the forum. My suggestion is to ask someone on the forum who will attend this year to transcribe the session and then share it on the forum for those unable to attend.

Thanks for the query.

kupuna/TOM
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by galeno » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:35 pm

1. Will Ireland Vanguard offer a bond ETF that's equivalent to USA Vanguard's BND anytime soon?

2. When will Ireland Vanguard's FTSE all world equity ETF (VWRD) add China "A" shares to the index?

3. When will Ireland Vanguard add a small cap equity ETF to its menu?
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:52 pm

galeno,

Thanks for your questions but I have reviewed our attendees and found none are from Ireland this year so your questions would be pretty far down the list.

Thanks for your input.

kupuna/ TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:01 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:53 pm
Mel:

This is a question for each member of the Panel:

"What is the single most important financial advice you would give to a new investor?"

Best wishes.
Taylor
This is a wonderful and helpful question. I would like also like to know the answer to: "What is the single most important financial advice you would give to a seasoned investor (who has it all set up and figured out already)?"

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Wind_Reaver » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:15 pm

Question for the panel:
Lessons learned/re-learned in the wake of the Equifax debacle.
Thank you.

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by pkcrafter » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:39 pm

"I understand that Taylor is writing a third Bogleheads' book. Does anyone know when it will be published?"

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Scamp » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:03 pm

Seconding thoughts by OZAR(Taxable Ted question) and Grt2bOutdoors(TIPS in taxable question)

Any panelist -

For investors with little tax advantaged space and high tax brackets what recommendations can be made for asset allocation? Specifically how much is too much allocation for Munis if half your total net worth is in bonds or equivalents? Are TIPS practical in taxable? Should you just hold Total Bond in taxable?

Thanks and see you all there for my first conference.
Scott

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by heybro » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:33 pm

At what point should a person feel comfortable to start working part-time? Once they have 25X their current expenses, etc.? Thank you!!

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by packer16 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:09 pm

A question to all the panelist (esp. John Bogle):

Warren Buffet has stated that current US valuations are reasonable if not cheap if current interest rates prevail. For those who are making forecasts of low expected are not these based upon the assumption that interest rates will rise to historical levels (explicitly or implicitly via assumed multiples)? There does not appear to be evidence that this will be the case (i.e. that interest rate will revert to the historical averages) as interest rates appear to go up and down in large waves depending upon inflation. As a matter of fact there is more evidence for declining rates (more savings & lack of shortages to cause inflation) than increasing rates. How would the assumption of current or lower rates change the panelists views of expected returns?

A related question if there is time - How does the fact that the markets are more efficient in pricing securities than in the past impact the usefulness of past multiples when used to estimate future returns?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:30 pm

The questions have already been collected and assembled, so no more questions will be taken. This thread is locked.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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