Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson

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Jcraz13
Posts: 150
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:17 pm

Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson

Post by Jcraz13 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:13 am

Another interesting read, some great historical stats, and another feather in the cap for the Boglehead way! No one can tell, so Stay the Course!

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/10 ... recession/

JBTX
Posts: 1163
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson

Post by JBTX » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:01 am

Good read.

Agree that predicting the economic cycle and market turns is a fools errand. Ocassionally one of these people will predict a bear market and become famous then they will perform horribly the next 20 years.

Having said all that, I choose to look at asset valuations and the length of the economic cycle and adjust my asset allocation modestly in response. It is market timing in a small way and probably won't help my long term returns but may help reduce some of the downside risk.

fipt2030
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Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:09 am

Re: Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson

Post by fipt2030 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:19 pm

Lot tough when you are trying it with lump sum entry into market (65% of portfolio), money which was never invested

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ray.james
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Re: Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson

Post by ray.james » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:22 pm

I especially like his second table. 6 month prior returns, during recession and 12 months later returns.
Just all over the place!
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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