Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

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BogleMelon
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Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by BogleMelon » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:53 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/bitcoin ... osing.html
BTC China said in a tweet Thursday it will close down its operations by Sept. 30 as Chinese authorities crack down on cryptocurrencies
Wondering if this is it the beginning of the end!
Excuse my English, it is my second language! | | "One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

objectivefunction
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by objectivefunction » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:29 am

BogleMelon wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:53 am
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/bitcoin ... osing.html
BTC China said in a tweet Thursday it will close down its operations by Sept. 30 as Chinese authorities crack down on cryptocurrencies
Wondering if this is it the beginning of the end!
It may still go down further, but I think to some extent this has already been priced in. On 9/12 Jamie Dimon called bitcoin a fraud and many people attributed bitcoin's slide on 9/12 and 9/13 to that (and that may have been part of it), but also on 9/12 Charlie Lee (the creator of Litecoin) leaked some news about Chinese exchanges being closed down (https://web.archive.org/web/20170912192 ... 9279343616).

Rule of thumb: most bitcoiners don't get their news about bitcoin from CNBC, so if CNBC is talking about it, then the market has probably already priced it in.

But I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

DrGoogle2017
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:52 am

Good thing. I was too lazy to open an account to buy some bitcoins.

bigred77
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by bigred77 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:56 am

I don't think it's the beginning of the end but it's a good reminder to bitcoin owners that those suckers are EXTREMELY volatile.

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MEA
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by MEA » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:43 pm

BogleMelon wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:53 am
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/bitcoin ... osing.html
BTC China said in a tweet Thursday it will close down its operations by Sept. 30 as Chinese authorities crack down on cryptocurrencies
Wondering if this is it the beginning of the end!
Not the beginning of the end according to McAfee.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/13/john-mc ... icism.html
It is speculators speculating on other speculators speculations. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

am
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by am » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:15 pm

What's to prevent other governments from banning exchanges and therefore practically making them worthless?

I have a small gamble in these coins but am fully prepared to go to 0 on these. It's also much harder to not sell while they're hemorraging since there is no intrinsic value and nothing stopping the coins from going to 0. I am holding on however because no one knows for sure. I may even buy more if they keep going down, China is one country and Chase CEO is one man with an opinion.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by nisiprius » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:57 pm

Speaking as a strong bitcoin skeptic, if I were into bitcoin I don't think I would see what's happened recently as a big deal. Anyone who bought bitcoin around the start of 2017 or before, if they sell today, has more than quadrupled their money, so fussing because "I coulda quintupled it!" seems a little greedy.
am wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:15 pm
What's to prevent other governments from banning exchanges and therefore practically making them worthless?
Nothing at all. I simply don't understand the beliefs by advocates of a) bitcoin, or b) gold, that holding these assets somehow disconnects them from society and makes them immune from any kind of government regulation.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by ny_rn » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:03 pm

am wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:15 pm
I am holding on however because no one knows for sure. I may even buy more if they keep going down, China is one country and Chase CEO is one man with an opinion.
I am also prepared to deploy some extra money if the price keeps dropping.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Nate79 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:07 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:57 pm
Speaking as a strong bitcoin skeptic, if I were into bitcoin I don't think I would see what's happened recently as a big deal. Anyone who bought bitcoin around the start of 2017 or before, if they sell today, has more than quadrupled their money, so fussing because "I coulda quintupled it!" seems a little greedy.
am wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:15 pm
What's to prevent other governments from banning exchanges and therefore practically making them worthless?
Nothing at all. I simply don't understand the beliefs by advocates of a) bitcoin, or b) gold, that holding these assets somehow disconnects them from society and makes them immune from any kind of government regulation.
It's clear that you haven't drunk the Kool Aid yet. The bitcoin fanboys will be along any time to tell you how you just don't understand the technology enough to not understand how it's only going up..... Apparently when the CEO of one of the largest banks in the world (Jamie Dimon) says Bitcoin is a fraud he just isn't knowledgeable enough on the subject. As if the largest bank in the US hasn't done it's research.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by finjour » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:26 pm

Bitcoin is just the first iteration of a currency based on the blockchain. I think it's been a grand experiment, but it will eventually end. However, I think the idea of a currency based on the blockchain is timeless and will continue to gain traction, as evidenced by the plethora of other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin might die, but cryptocurrency is here to stay.

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steadyeddy
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by steadyeddy » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:34 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:07 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:57 pm
Speaking as a strong bitcoin skeptic, if I were into bitcoin I don't think I would see what's happened recently as a big deal. Anyone who bought bitcoin around the start of 2017 or before, if they sell today, has more than quadrupled their money, so fussing because "I coulda quintupled it!" seems a little greedy.
am wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:15 pm
What's to prevent other governments from banning exchanges and therefore practically making them worthless?
Nothing at all. I simply don't understand the beliefs by advocates of a) bitcoin, or b) gold, that holding these assets somehow disconnects them from society and makes them immune from any kind of government regulation.
It's clear that you haven't drunk the Kool Aid yet. The bitcoin fanboys will be along any time to tell you how you just don't understand the technology enough to not understand how it's only going up..... Apparently when the CEO of one of the largest banks in the world (Jamie Dimon) says Bitcoin is a fraud he just isn't knowledgeable enough on the subject. As if the largest bank in the US hasn't done it's research.
I'm not a fanboy, but I would point out that Jamie Dimon has a vested interest in killing technology with the potential to disrupt this entrenched business. It's like Blackberry and Microsoft dismissing the iphone when it first came out. Or maybe it's like Apple dismissing the Zune when it came out...too soon to say.

Disclosure: I own approximately $6 of bitcoin

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by rmelvey » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:42 pm

If anything I'm impressed with how well the price has been holding up. The China news is big. My limit orders to buy have been triggering and I have another one down at $3,000. If you can't stomach 90% draw downs you have no business buying bitcoins and position sizing is key. No more than 5% of your portfolio.

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greg24
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by greg24 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:47 pm

For those trading bitcoin, what other currencies do you trade?

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:51 pm

steadyeddy wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:34 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:07 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:57 pm
Speaking as a strong bitcoin skeptic, if I were into bitcoin I don't think I would see what's happened recently as a big deal. Anyone who bought bitcoin around the start of 2017 or before, if they sell today, has more than quadrupled their money, so fussing because "I coulda quintupled it!" seems a little greedy.
am wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:15 pm
What's to prevent other governments from banning exchanges and therefore practically making them worthless?
Nothing at all. I simply don't understand the beliefs by advocates of a) bitcoin, or b) gold, that holding these assets somehow disconnects them from society and makes them immune from any kind of government regulation.
It's clear that you haven't drunk the Kool Aid yet. The bitcoin fanboys will be along any time to tell you how you just don't understand the technology enough to not understand how it's only going up..... Apparently when the CEO of one of the largest banks in the world (Jamie Dimon) says Bitcoin is a fraud he just isn't knowledgeable enough on the subject. As if the largest bank in the US hasn't done it's research.
I'm not a fanboy, but I would point out that Jamie Dimon has a vested interest in killing technology with the potential to disrupt this entrenched business. It's like Blackberry and Microsoft dismissing the iphone when it first came out. Or maybe it's like Apple dismissing the Zune when it came out...too soon to say.

Disclosure: I own approximately $6 of bitcoin
Has a vested interest? Give it time, governments have a vested interest as well, just a matter of when, not if. The whole thing is going to make tulips look tame by comparison.
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Chuck » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Wow, Bitcoin is TANKING. It hasn't been this low since August 2017!!! This proves Bitcoin is bunk somehow!!

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by nisiprius » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:06 pm

finjour wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:26 pm
Bitcoin is just the first iteration of a currency based on the blockchain. I think it's been a grand experiment, but it will eventually end. However, I think the idea of a currency based on the blockchain is timeless and will continue to gain traction, as evidenced by the plethora of other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin might die, but cryptocurrency is here to stay.
That's like saying "The Apple Newton might have died, but handwriting recognition technology is here to stay." It tells you nothing useful. It does not tell you what to invest in, it does not tell you what product to buy, and it's not even clear how important the technology really is.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by incognito_man » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:33 pm

greg24 wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:47 pm
For those trading bitcoin, what other currencies do you trade?
I don't (and never have) owned any bitcoin, but I did stick a few nice meals worth of cash into ethereum so far. I prefer it's utility to Bitcoin's. Please, the EntEthAlliance gives me a few more warm and fuzzies about its future.

CodeMaster
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:59 pm

cnbc wording of crackdown is bit vague.

China deems bitcoins not illegal and intend to regulate it, asking exchanges shut down temporarily and voluntarily until regulations in place.

Far from a ban of crypto or a "crackdown" but the news confuses all so does China and probably intentionally to manipulate prices.

https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-bitcoi ... licensure/

ps this isn't first time China scared world with crypto, research and you'll see this has happened few times leading to suspicion of price manipulation possibly.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm

Also I watched Jamie's entire reasoning trying to explain why bitcoin was bad, it made no sense. He couldnt give 1 reason why it was flawwed and was extremely vague and didnt clarify anything, he just said its fraud and drug dealers use it lol Thats a lot of money in the market volumne for it all to be drug dealers, and Im a Sr Engineer from SF, all of the top engineers I know in the world are invested in it (mainly cuase they understand it) ... Jamie speaks without understanding what hes talking about, either that or he is scared for some reason of bitcoins for his own business.

p.s. Im all for reasoning against coins, but he failed to give 1 which to me means this is all speculative fear.. .which means its great time to buy

Cruncher
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Cruncher » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:50 am

Am I the only one who views Bitcoin as another Madoff pyramid scheme?

I am sure I am missing something, but whaaaaat?

CodeMaster
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:44 am

Cruncher wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:50 am
Am I the only one who views Bitcoin as another Madoff pyramid scheme?

I am sure I am missing something, but whaaaaat?
your not, mark Cuban the super rich guy said same thing. then few days ago changed his statement saying he now sees it as legit currency. it's all on Google if your interested.

p.s. you buy the coins direct like anything else then its over, no contacting friends for anything, thus not equal pyramid anything

bridge
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by bridge » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:27 am

The CEO of one of the world largest banks calls Bitcoin a fraud. I'm inclined to believe him since big banks are the world experts at fraud and experts at getting away with it too.

CodeMaster
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:31 am

bridge wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:27 am
The CEO of one of the world largest banks calls Bitcoin a fraud. I'm inclined to believe him since big banks are the world experts at fraud and experts at getting away with it too.
given he couldn't explain why and we've seen similar profile level guys initially say same thing only to change his mind recently (mark cuban), this is what creates the sky is falling fear allowing those familiar with fundamentals to gratefully dive in. these times are hard to find with the super mature stocks but grand for the new bitcoins.

nukewerker
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by nukewerker » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:58 am

Even the tulip people had pretty flowers once all their money was gone.

objectivefunction
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by objectivefunction » Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:42 am

Once bitcoin goes to zero I'll still have my private keys...I may frame them.

Angelus359
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Angelus359 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:18 am

I have about 5% of my portfolio in a mixture of Bitcoin, litecoin, and ethereum

It's been about break even since I started
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columbia
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by columbia » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:27 am

From a data storage and management perspective, block chains are pretty interesting. However, I'm not interested in interesting investments.

Steven in NC
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Steven in NC » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:34 am

incognito_man wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:33 pm
greg24 wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:47 pm
For those trading bitcoin, what other currencies do you trade?
I don't (and never have) owned any bitcoin, but I did stick a few nice meals worth of cash into ethereum so far. I prefer it's utility to Bitcoin's. Please, the EntEthAlliance gives me a few more warm and fuzzies about its future.
Same here. Ether(eum) is where I am putting money into right now. Not a lot of money but I made the effort to establish an account so I can establish a position.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by kehyler » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:48 am

nukewerker wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:58 am
Even the tulip people had pretty flowers once all their money was gone.
This made me laugh... :sharebeer

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by kehyler » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:49 am

greg24 wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:47 pm
For those trading bitcoin, what other currencies do you trade?
+1

avalpert
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by avalpert » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:47 am

Cruncher wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:50 am
Am I the only one who views Bitcoin as another Madoff pyramid scheme?

I am sure I am missing something, but whaaaaat?
No, not a Madoff-like pyramid scheme. More like a Magic the Gathering Card investing - a bunch of geeks who confuse interest in the technology for meaningful investments, don't understand what a successful currency would look like (hint, not a volatile speculation) and ultimately are relying on each other to keep propping themselves up.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:55 am

avalpert wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:47 am
Cruncher wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:50 am
Am I the only one who views Bitcoin as another Madoff pyramid scheme?

I am sure I am missing something, but whaaaaat?
No, not a Madoff-like pyramid scheme. More like a Magic the Gathering Card investing - a bunch of geeks who confuse interest in the technology for meaningful investments, don't understand what a successful currency would look like (hint, not a volatile speculation) and ultimately are relying on each other to keep propping themselves up.
To the extent it allows one to do something that one could not previously do, it has value.

However:

- much of that so far is illegal activities - payment of ransomware, bypassing of Chinese exchange controls - we may have a view whether China should have FX controls, but it does right now, and Bitcoin was a way around it

This is what Dimon was referring to, I think

- there seems to be the possibility of an infinity of cyber currencies, thus, bitcoin always has alternatives. That makes it hard to believe that it will keep its value

Nonetheless we should recognize this, that to the extent it is (uniquely) useful, it has value. What is impossible to know is whether it is, at any given moment, the *correct* value - which takes us back to your point.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by TareNeko » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:54 am

It may be technologically interesting, but that does not make it a valid currency or investment. As a technology may be it will have some other uses that add value in the future. But as a currency contender, it is just speculation.

Is anyone really using bitcoin as currency right now? Or is it used mostly for speculation? Is there any statistics out there showing how much of bitcoin is used for trading/speculating vs e-commerce?
CodeMaster wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm
Also I watched Jamie's entire reasoning trying to explain why bitcoin was bad, it made no sense. He couldnt give 1 reason why it was flawwed and was extremely vague and didnt clarify anything, he just said its fraud and drug dealers use it lol Thats a lot of money in the market volumne for it all to be drug dealers, and Im a Sr Engineer from SF, all of the top engineers I know in the world are invested in it (mainly cuase they understand it) ... Jamie speaks without understanding what hes talking about, either that or he is scared for some reason of bitcoins for his own business.

p.s. Im all for reasoning against coins, but he failed to give 1 which to me means this is all speculative fear.. .which means its great time to buy

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by objectivefunction » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:16 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:55 am
- much of that so far is illegal activities - payment of ransomware, bypassing of Chinese exchange controls - we may have a view whether China should have FX controls, but it does right now, and Bitcoin was a way around it
Do you have a reputable source for this information, or are you just making things up? Or perhaps it is based on viewing sensational news coverage of bitcoin?
TareNeko wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:54 am
Is anyone really using bitcoin as currency right now? Or is it used mostly for speculation? Is there any statistics out there showing how much of bitcoin is used for trading/speculating vs e-commerce?
I'm interested in the same thing, rather than just making baseless claims that support my own narrative about bitcoin. In an attempt to answer my own question to Valuethinker, I'll send along this link from another thread viewtopic.php?f=10&t=227345&newpost=3533134#p3529199

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2965436

It is an interesting read that focuses on companies involved in cryptocurrencies. It defines a taxonomy of the kinds of cryptocurrency businesses, and talks about geographic distribution. It quantifies number of unique wallets, number of people employed in cryptocurrency businesses. It does talk a little about what kinds of payments people are making with cryptocurrencies, but only in broad strokes.

One of the companies specializing in analyzing the public blockchain is Chainalysis, and here is a blog article from them saying that fears of terrorists using cryptocurrencies are overblown https://blog.chainalysis.com/congress-testimony/. Terrorism is obviously only one kind of crime, so this says nothing in particular about how much cryptocurrencies may or may not be used for other kinds of criminal activity.

I've talked in other threads about how bitcoin is actually a bad choice if you're going to commit a crime, because every transaction is traceable and its record is maintained for perpetuity. Law enforcement agencies are not dumb, they know how to take advantage of the blockchain. Here is a panel (including representatives from the DOJ, IRS, FBI, and a law firm specializing in cryptocurrencies) from Consensus 2015 about using the blockchain to track criminal activity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XStTO4Rj0zc.

I'd like to see some research focused on users and what they are using cryptocurrencies for (maybe we'll find out people only use it for illegal activities!). I've heard about some crypto centers in like Berlin where there's a cluster of businesses that accept cryptocurrencies. There are a handful of online companies that accept bitcoins (http://www.businessinsider.com/5-big-co ... in-2017-7/). That's a fairly recent article, but it is obviously not exhaustive.

I think that probably a lot of people in the US and Europe are treating it like "digital gold," and speculating on short-term or long-term price movements. That's just speculation on my part, and there are other countries where people are using cryptocurrencies. It may be true that your average, banked US citizen has no need for bitcoin, but that says nothing about the rest of the world.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by objectivefunction » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:28 pm

I'd also add that because of Chainalysis there are (anecdotal) reports in places like reddit by people who get blacklisted from creating accounts at US exchanges because of paying bitcoins to online gambling sites. There was also a case of a cybersecurity firm that had coinbase close its accounts because it purchased bitcoins to pay to unlock ransomware for a client (I apologize I don't have the link off hand).

Here's another article detailing the process an FBI agent uses to track down a ransomer based on his wallet address: https://www.coindesk.com/catch-bitcoin- ... n-process/

I would like to know what people are using bitcoin for and what percentage of it is for criminal activity, but whatever percentage it is the authorities are not befuddled by it, they are using it against criminals.

objectivefunction
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by objectivefunction » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:38 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:55 am
- there seems to be the possibility of an infinity of cyber currencies, thus, bitcoin always has alternatives. That makes it hard to believe that it will keep its value
If this is what Dimon is saying, it seems a rather naive thing to say (to me). There's a network effect to a cryptocurrency, and the larger the network the more incentive people have to stick with it. Just because someone can create a new one does not mean that it's going to suddenly supplant some existing cryptocurrency. Let alone the fact that there's no reason there has to be only one cryptocurrency.

If someone started a new bank would everyone suddenly close their accounts at Chase and move to the new bank? Is there some law of the Universe that only one car manufacturer can exist? When a new restaurant opens are all the existing restaurants required to close their doors?

But I guess the network effect is only useful if people are actually using a cryptocurrency as a medium of exchange. If people are just using it for speculation, then yeah maybe they'd stampede to a new cryptocurrency if their mood changed. So (depending on how people actually use the thing) maybe I'm refuting my own argument. :)

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by rmelvey » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:46 pm

objectivefunction wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:28 pm
I would like to know what people are using bitcoin for and what percentage of it is for criminal activity, but whatever percentage it is the authorities are not befuddled by it, they are using it against criminals.
I think the mainstream audience is only now beginning to realize that bitcoin is not really anonymous. It has always been set up from the start so that you could see all of the public addresses. If you want a cryptocurrency for privacy there are better options, most notably Monero. The online drug marketplaces have largely moved away from Bitcoin. But of course the easiest way to buy Monero is with bitcoin 8-)

Today's price action in bitcoin was interesting though. My limit order at $3,000 got filled :happy. There was a ton of limit orders on the books for $3,000 at GDAX. I think there is some hope in the market that the China crackdown is temporary until the government feels like they are in more control.

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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:53 pm

TareNeko wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:54 am
It may be technologically interesting, but that does not make it a valid currency or investment. As a technology may be it will have some other uses that add value in the future. But as a currency contender, it is just speculation.

Is anyone really using bitcoin as currency right now? Or is it used mostly for speculation? Is there any statistics out there showing how much of bitcoin is used for trading/speculating vs e-commerce?
CodeMaster wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm
Also I watched Jamie's entire reasoning trying to explain why bitcoin was bad, it made no sense. He couldnt give 1 reason why it was flawwed and was extremely vague and didnt clarify anything, he just said its fraud and drug dealers use it lol Thats a lot of money in the market volumne for it all to be drug dealers, and Im a Sr Engineer from SF, all of the top engineers I know in the world are invested in it (mainly cuase they understand it) ... Jamie speaks without understanding what hes talking about, either that or he is scared for some reason of bitcoins for his own business.

p.s. Im all for reasoning against coins, but he failed to give 1 which to me means this is all speculative fear.. .which means its great time to buy
More and more are.. its JUST starting to become more mainstream. You can google and find a ton of places adapting bitcoin, including Switzerland gov allowing you to pay tax using BTC. Microsoft, Dell, Overstock, Subway, Expedia, Mint.com, Overstock, NewEgg, Dish and many MORE CURRENTLY accept bitcoin...

It is getting big weather people like it or not and there are new companies already investing many millions of dollars to make it easy for mainstream to use (i.e. putting bitcoin on credit card so you can use it easily at local grocery store or whatever) etc...

Also ton of less bigger companies are accepting bitcoins, like rich devleopers who sell condos etc...this was an article released by CNN recently of one example, google it and youll find ton more!
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/technol ... index.html

One more thing, my business accepts bitcoins now for larger distribution wholesell orders hahaa

:beer

CodeMaster
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Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2007 3:03 pm

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:17 pm

rmelvey wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:46 pm
objectivefunction wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:28 pm
I would like to know what people are using bitcoin for and what percentage of it is for criminal activity, but whatever percentage it is the authorities are not befuddled by it, they are using it against criminals.
I think the mainstream audience is only now beginning to realize that bitcoin is not really anonymous. It has always been set up from the start so that you could see all of the public addresses. If you want a cryptocurrency for privacy there are better options, most notably Monero. The online drug marketplaces have largely moved away from Bitcoin. But of course the easiest way to buy Monero is with bitcoin 8-)

Today's price action in bitcoin was interesting though. My limit order at $3,000 got filled :happy. There was a ton of limit orders on the books for $3,000 at GDAX. I think there is some hope in the market that the China crackdown is temporary until the government feels like they are in more control.
That was a crazy spike!!! I saw it touch 2900 then within an hour or so FLEW nearly $1000 up! Wow what a comeback but I was disappointed I couldnt buy cause money was still transferring into the exchange!! I was trying to get in on it but my bank wire took too long!

It appears everyone is offloading from China exchanges due to Gov putting their hands on the exchanges and moving their money to nearby countries to continue buying BTC, Japan / Korea and others suddenly have a huge fluxx of purchases of BTC, people theorize Chinese might be moving cash out of country and purchasing from other exchanges that arent controlled er... "regulated"

TareNeko
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by TareNeko » Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:25 am

Sure, lots of places accept bitcoin... but do people use it? That's my question.
CodeMaster wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm
More and more are.. its JUST starting to become more mainstream. You can google and find a ton of places adapting bitcoin, including Switzerland gov allowing you to pay tax using BTC. Microsoft, Dell, Overstock, Subway, Expedia, Mint.com, Overstock, NewEgg, Dish and many MORE CURRENTLY accept bitcoin...

It is getting big weather people like it or not and there are new companies already investing many millions of dollars to make it easy for mainstream to use (i.e. putting bitcoin on credit card so you can use it easily at local grocery store or whatever) etc...

Also ton of less bigger companies are accepting bitcoins, like rich devleopers who sell condos etc...this was an article released by CNN recently of one example, google it and youll find ton more!
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/technol ... index.html

One more thing, my business accepts bitcoins now for larger distribution wholesell orders hahaa

:beer

CodeMaster
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Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2007 3:03 pm

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:32 am

TareNeko wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:25 am
Sure, lots of places accept bitcoin... but do people use it? That's my question.
CodeMaster wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm
More and more are.. its JUST starting to become more mainstream. You can google and find a ton of places adapting bitcoin, including Switzerland gov allowing you to pay tax using BTC. Microsoft, Dell, Overstock, Subway, Expedia, Mint.com, Overstock, NewEgg, Dish and many MORE CURRENTLY accept bitcoin...

It is getting big weather people like it or not and there are new companies already investing many millions of dollars to make it easy for mainstream to use (i.e. putting bitcoin on credit card so you can use it easily at local grocery store or whatever) etc...

Also ton of less bigger companies are accepting bitcoins, like rich devleopers who sell condos etc...this was an article released by CNN recently of one example, google it and youll find ton more!
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/technol ... index.html

One more thing, my business accepts bitcoins now for larger distribution wholesell orders hahaa

:beer
it seems to be heading that way wouldn't you say

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in_reality
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by in_reality » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:22 am

CodeMaster wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:32 am
TareNeko wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:25 am
Sure, lots of places accept bitcoin... but do people use it? That's my question.
CodeMaster wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm
More and more are.. its JUST starting to become more mainstream. You can google and find a ton of places adapting bitcoin, including Switzerland gov allowing you to pay tax using BTC. Microsoft, Dell, Overstock, Subway, Expedia, Mint.com, Overstock, NewEgg, Dish and many MORE CURRENTLY accept bitcoin...

It is getting big weather people like it or not and there are new companies already investing many millions of dollars to make it easy for mainstream to use (i.e. putting bitcoin on credit card so you can use it easily at local grocery store or whatever) etc...

Also ton of less bigger companies are accepting bitcoins, like rich devleopers who sell condos etc...this was an article released by CNN recently of one example, google it and youll find ton more!
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/technol ... index.html

One more thing, my business accepts bitcoins now for larger distribution wholesell orders hahaa

:beer
it seems to be heading that way wouldn't you say
There is also improvement in laundering them so as to escape legal ramifications for illegal activity. For example, beyond the normal obfuscation methods such as tumbling or coin mixing that can offer anonymity if there are enough clean coins, there are also service to exchange bitcoins anonymously to other completely untraceable cryptocurrencies.

Heck, for all we know, the people running the anonymous exchanges are the same ones doing the virus extortions that demand payment in bitcoins.

In any case, alls it will take is a few extortion demands involving a kidnapped child and authorities will face an extreme amount of pressure to shut things down.
Researchers say WannaCry operator moved bitcoins to “untraceable” Monero
Wallets' BTC exchanged for XMR, anonymous cryptocash favored by Shadowbrokers.
Maybe you don't have a child you love as much as I do, or maybe you don't have as much money as I do (cough, cough ... by third world standards it's alot) or maybe you don't live in the corner of the world where I do but the mechanisms by which cryptocurrencies offer an avenue for economic transactions that legitimately should be banned in the interest of society need to be addressed.

If you want to argue that there are no transactions that should legitimately be banned, then it's just a rabbit hole from which the discussion will never escape. Kidnapping and extortion might always exist, but that doesn't mean there is a legitimate need for ease and security in receiving the payoff.

CodeMaster
Posts: 646
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2007 3:03 pm

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:28 am

in_reality wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:22 am
CodeMaster wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:32 am
TareNeko wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:25 am
Sure, lots of places accept bitcoin... but do people use it? That's my question.
CodeMaster wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm
More and more are.. its JUST starting to become more mainstream. You can google and find a ton of places adapting bitcoin, including Switzerland gov allowing you to pay tax using BTC. Microsoft, Dell, Overstock, Subway, Expedia, Mint.com, Overstock, NewEgg, Dish and many MORE CURRENTLY accept bitcoin...

It is getting big weather people like it or not and there are new companies already investing many millions of dollars to make it easy for mainstream to use (i.e. putting bitcoin on credit card so you can use it easily at local grocery store or whatever) etc...

Also ton of less bigger companies are accepting bitcoins, like rich devleopers who sell condos etc...this was an article released by CNN recently of one example, google it and youll find ton more!
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/technol ... index.html

One more thing, my business accepts bitcoins now for larger distribution wholesell orders hahaa

:beer
it seems to be heading that way wouldn't you say
There is also improvement in laundering them so as to escape legal ramifications for illegal activity. For example, beyond the normal obfuscation methods such as tumbling or coin mixing that can offer anonymity if there are enough clean coins, there are also service to exchange bitcoins anonymously to other completely untraceable cryptocurrencies.

Heck, for all we know, the people running the anonymous exchanges are the same ones doing the virus extortions that demand payment in bitcoins.

In any case, alls it will take is a few extortion demands involving a kidnapped child and authorities will face an extreme amount of pressure to shut things down.
Researchers say WannaCry operator moved bitcoins to “untraceable” Monero
Wallets' BTC exchanged for XMR, anonymous cryptocash favored by Shadowbrokers.
Maybe you don't have a child you love as much as I do, or maybe you don't have as much money as I do (cough, cough ... by third world standards it's alot) or maybe you don't live in the corner of the world where I do but the mechanisms by which cryptocurrencies offer an avenue for economic transactions that legitimately should be banned in the interest of society need to be addressed.

If you want to argue that there are no transactions that should legitimately be banned, then it's just a rabbit hole from which the discussion will never escape. Kidnapping and extortion might always exist, but that doesn't mean there is a legitimate need for ease and security in receiving the payoff.
it's suppose be anonymous... that's whole point

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in_reality
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by in_reality » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:41 am

CodeMaster wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:28 am
in_reality wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:22 am
CodeMaster wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:32 am
TareNeko wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:25 am
Sure, lots of places accept bitcoin... but do people use it? That's my question.
CodeMaster wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:41 pm
More and more are.. its JUST starting to become more mainstream. You can google and find a ton of places adapting bitcoin, including Switzerland gov allowing you to pay tax using BTC. Microsoft, Dell, Overstock, Subway, Expedia, Mint.com, Overstock, NewEgg, Dish and many MORE CURRENTLY accept bitcoin...

It is getting big weather people like it or not and there are new companies already investing many millions of dollars to make it easy for mainstream to use (i.e. putting bitcoin on credit card so you can use it easily at local grocery store or whatever) etc...

Also ton of less bigger companies are accepting bitcoins, like rich devleopers who sell condos etc...this was an article released by CNN recently of one example, google it and youll find ton more!
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/technol ... index.html

One more thing, my business accepts bitcoins now for larger distribution wholesell orders hahaa

:beer
it seems to be heading that way wouldn't you say
There is also improvement in laundering them so as to escape legal ramifications for illegal activity. For example, beyond the normal obfuscation methods such as tumbling or coin mixing that can offer anonymity if there are enough clean coins, there are also service to exchange bitcoins anonymously to other completely untraceable cryptocurrencies.

Heck, for all we know, the people running the anonymous exchanges are the same ones doing the virus extortions that demand payment in bitcoins.

In any case, alls it will take is a few extortion demands involving a kidnapped child and authorities will face an extreme amount of pressure to shut things down.
Researchers say WannaCry operator moved bitcoins to “untraceable” Monero
Wallets' BTC exchanged for XMR, anonymous cryptocash favored by Shadowbrokers.
Maybe you don't have a child you love as much as I do, or maybe you don't have as much money as I do (cough, cough ... by third world standards it's alot) or maybe you don't live in the corner of the world where I do but the mechanisms by which cryptocurrencies offer an avenue for economic transactions that legitimately should be banned in the interest of society need to be addressed.

If you want to argue that there are no transactions that should legitimately be banned, then it's just a rabbit hole from which the discussion will never escape. Kidnapping and extortion might always exist, but that doesn't mean there is a legitimate need for ease and security in receiving the payoff.
it's suppose be anonymous... that's whole point
Yeah, that is the whole point. I agree.

So why invest in technology whose whole point is enabling anonymous illegal transactions? It can't and won't be allowed for public safety. Perhaps that was Dimon's point.

That cryptocurrency have legitimate uses shouldn't be overlooked but the regulatory constraints will come home to roost for sure. Also, bitcoin's transaction capacity is much lower than say Visa's and bitcoin faces difficult in increasing it as exhibited by the recent threat of forking the code in disagreement on how to best do so. I see Visa is introducing technology for business to make instant payment and avoid ACH transfer delays.

I'm not anti-tech. I am pro safety.

CodeMaster
Posts: 646
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2007 3:03 pm

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by CodeMaster » Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:24 am

in_reality wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:41 am
CodeMaster wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:28 am
in_reality wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:22 am
CodeMaster wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:32 am
TareNeko wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:25 am
Sure, lots of places accept bitcoin... but do people use it? That's my question.

how is it illegal? how is it so different from cash in your house. you choose what you do with it like anything, doesn't have to be illegal.

it seems to be heading that way wouldn't you say
There is also improvement in laundering them so as to escape legal ramifications for illegal activity. For example, beyond the normal obfuscation methods such as tumbling or coin mixing that can offer anonymity if there are enough clean coins, there are also service to exchange bitcoins anonymously to other completely untraceable cryptocurrencies.

Heck, for all we know, the people running the anonymous exchanges are the same ones doing the virus extortions that demand payment in bitcoins.

In any case, alls it will take is a few extortion demands involving a kidnapped child and authorities will face an extreme amount of pressure to shut things down.
Researchers say WannaCry operator moved bitcoins to “untraceable” Monero
Wallets' BTC exchanged for XMR, anonymous cryptocash favored by Shadowbrokers.
Maybe you don't have a child you love as much as I do, or maybe you don't have as much money as I do (cough, cough ... by third world standards it's alot) or maybe you don't live in the corner of the world where I do but the mechanisms by which cryptocurrencies offer an avenue for economic transactions that legitimately should be banned in the interest of society need to be addressed.

If you want to argue that there are no transactions that should legitimately be banned, then it's just a rabbit hole from which the discussion will never escape. Kidnapping and extortion might always exist, but that doesn't mean there is a legitimate need for ease and security in receiving the payoff.
it's suppose be anonymous... that's whole point
Yeah, that is the whole point. I agree.

So why invest in technology whose whole point is enabling anonymous illegal transactions? It can't and won't be allowed for public safety. Perhaps that was Dimon's point.

That cryptocurrency have legitimate uses shouldn't be overlooked but the regulatory constraints will come home to roost for sure. Also, bitcoin's transaction capacity is much lower than say Visa's and bitcoin faces difficult in increasing it as exhibited by the recent threat of forking the code in disagreement on how to best do so. I see Visa is introducing technology for business to make instant payment and avoid ACH transfer delays.

I'm not anti-tech. I am pro safety.

supaflix
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by supaflix » Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:29 am

Glad there is more bitcoin discussion on Bogleheads. I am a young Boglehead with a strong desire to squeeze all alpha out of my risk-adjusted portfolio. In my mind, Bitcoin and other cryptos provide the best risk adjusted return available for me to invest in right now.

I see other Bogleheads using a small cap value tilt and would like to suggest you consider adding high risk/high return to your portfolio with a small allocation 1-5% to bitcoin. You can balance this risk by reducing exposure to risk in another asset class.

Over the next few months we will see a US based bitcoin ETF, approval of options trading with CBOE, and yes..much more Bitcoin volatility. I generally see Bitcoin hitting 6K before end of 2017. 10K before end of year 2018. It may have another downturn as low as $2800-$2600 if this current bounce doesn't go past $4200 however before then so there may be a good opportunity to start a long position.

Good luck and happy investing.

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Lauretta
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by Lauretta » Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:14 am

supaflix wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:29 am

Over the next few months we will see a US based bitcoin ETF, approval of options trading with CBOE, and yes..much more Bitcoin volatility. I generally see Bitcoin hitting 6K before end of 2017. 10K before end of year 2018. It may have another downturn as low as $2800-$2600 if this current bounce doesn't go past $4200 however before then so there may be a good opportunity to start a long position.
hi supaflix you seem to have rather precise expectations on the evolution of bitcoin's price: can you explain what you base these estimates on?
When everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking at all

objectivefunction
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by objectivefunction » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:37 am

in_reality wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:22 am
Maybe you don't have a child you love as much as I do ...
You're just fear mongering. Did you intentionally ignore my previous posts? I gave several actual resources by actual law enforcement personnel that documented how they are actually using the public bitcoin ledger to track and catch criminals. It's actually very interesting. You are just making baseless emotional arguments.

Additionally, it only takes a little bit of critical thinking to realize that there's no such thing as an anonymous exchange. At the very least you have the blockchain that document the exchange for perpetuity, and even better you can end up with server logs, witnesses, etc. Law enforcement can use the same techniques they've been using for a hundred years to investigate anonymous cash exchanges: going undercover, setting up stings, developing sources, issuing warrants, analyzing public information, etc.

In the case of a kidnapping or murder, how the money was exchanged is going to be the least fruitful avenue of investigation. There will be plenty of physical evidence from elsewhere, and the public blockchain provides a lot more actual traceable information than would an anonymous cash exchange.

The criminal risk of cryptocurrencies is way overblown.

hilink73
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by hilink73 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:38 am

What just came to my mind is: if I can stomach a drop of 50% in a day (!) (which makes some ten-thousands $ of my total bockchain investment :shock: ), I'm not worried to stomach a stock market drop of some % in the future.

Another (shower) thought I just had: because of that volatility, it's impossible to practice some good rebalancing.
I'll probably continue to rebalance between equities and bonds and leave crypto out of that calculation. It just doesn't work out the other way.
So, a) it's buy-and-hold for crypto, or b) in-and-out at set % drops/raises.

What do you all think?

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rmelvey
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Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Post by rmelvey » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:08 am

Regarding rebalancing, you can make a strong argument for making bitcoin part of a rebalancing program because of the high volatility. It is the best real life example I have seen for a Shannon's demon rebalancing scheme. You can harvest the high volatility by going 50% cash and 50% bitcoin and rebalancing using pre-defined limit orders. Your limit orders are adding depth to the order book in both directions, adding liquidity to and reducing the volatility of the bitcoin market. You are of course still net long, but the ride is smoother and you are providing liquidity in a market that desperately needs it and rewards you for it.

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