Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

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kayanco
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by kayanco » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:41 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:34 am
kayanco wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:22 am
Thanks for the link. It was an interesting read, but I'll guess that you are relying on technical analysis.
Technical analysis is useless for predicting the future. I call them as I see them, much like picking the winner of a football game.
Actually the "experts" are pumping a floor of $3000 so that's when many will jump back in.
Yea, just recently I'm coming across terms like:

floor, bottom
finding a floor
finding support

... all beyond me, this vernacular.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:48 am

kayanco wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:41 am
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:34 am
kayanco wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:22 am
Thanks for the link. It was an interesting read, but I'll guess that you are relying on technical analysis.
Technical analysis is useless for predicting the future. I call them as I see them, much like picking the winner of a football game.
Actually the "experts" are pumping a floor of $3000 so that's when many will jump back in.
Yea, just recently I'm coming across terms like:

floor, bottom
finding a floor
finding support

... all beyond me, this vernacular.
One must never invest in something one doesn't understand. That goes for the 5% roll the dice money too. It would not be prudent to shoot dice in an ally if one didn't understand the game.

alex_686
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by alex_686 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:55 am

kayanco wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:41 am
Yea, just recently I'm coming across terms like:
Don't worry about it. Reading a chart, or technical analysis, is the intellectual opposite of Boggleheads. Technical analysis believe that can discover the future by looking at the past and make short term trades to actively profit from this. If you think the market is a random walk, that the Efficient Market Hypothesis has already priced in all known information, then technical analysis looks like divination by reading pigeon guts. I am a bit kinder to technical analysis. It is a tool in the day traders bag. That being said, I am not that interested in becoming a day trader.
Last edited by alex_686 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Tanelorn
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:37 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:14 am
The more I read about "coin" the more I realize I will never truly understand them. Never invest in something one does not understand.
You've more than made your point. Since you admittedly don't understand BitCoin, maybe you can stop distracting those who are trying to learn.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:03 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:37 pm
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:14 am
The more I read about "coin" the more I realize I will never truly understand them. Never invest in something one does not understand.
You've more than made your point. Since you admittedly don't understand BitCoin, maybe you can stop distracting those who are trying to learn.
Did you see the shinny new Bitcoin Wiki?
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bitcoin
That's the place to go for answers.

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midareff
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by midareff » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:25 pm

FWIW.. I do use part of my portfolio to invest in what I think will be hot next. It used to be 3% of my portfolio, which then grew to 5%. Lately it's grown to nearly 7%, all in my Roth, the rest being quite Bogleish, and having done quite well in this 8+ year bull environment. Over the last decade I've "played" with Emerging Market stocks and bonds in my Roth, Extended Markets, Health Care and more recently tech. .. up almost 40% this year to date. All I've really proved is that being lucky is better than being good.

I've decided to codify this Roth lunacy I'm doing ... so as to IP it rather than try and follow what I perceive as trends. I'm going to follow the greatest number of sector positives in Fidelity's Quarterly Updates as to the two sectors they give the largest number of forward looking positives to, excluding Health Care, which I already own in my IRA.

We will see what happens as we move forward.

BTW, I worked too hard for my money to buy bitcoin with it.

kayanco
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by kayanco » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:16 pm

Close to $3000, this BTC.

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tadamsmar
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:00 pm

Your 5% fun money becomes your 3% fun money.

kosomoto
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by kosomoto » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:09 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:00 pm
Your 5% fun money becomes your 3% fun money.
If this happens, do you sell stock to buy bitcoin? If so, what happens if bitcoin crashes by 50%? Sell more stock? Do you see where this is going? Eventually your 5% allocation in reality is much higher than 5% if you rebalance into a losing asset.

harvestbook
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by harvestbook » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:11 pm

Even at its peak, Bitcoin was only about .02 percent of global market cap and therefore not worth weighting in a portfolio seeking to replicate the world. And its peak may well have already passed.

Even if you don't own Bitcoin, you will own whatever businesses eventually benefit from it, if any.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

incognito_man
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by incognito_man » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:31 pm

kosomoto wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:09 pm
tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:00 pm
Your 5% fun money becomes your 3% fun money.
If this happens, do you sell stock to buy bitcoin? If so, what happens if bitcoin crashes by 50%? Sell more stock? Do you see where this is going? Eventually your 5% allocation in reality is much higher than 5% if you rebalance into a losing asset.
No, you just keep investing 5% of new money into your fun money fund.

kayanco
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by kayanco » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:20 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:06 am
At this time Bitcoin is trading at $3,744, which amounts to a 26% drop from the record high of $5,020 hit on September 2.
Look for a dead cat bounce at $3,000
You turned out to be right. It went to 3000 and now rising up from there ...

Tanelorn
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:19 am

Here's a good FT article on many aspects of BitCoin, ICOs, and how some venture capitalists think investing in these new tokens could be a way to get on board for the next big internet platform ala Facebook such as open source distributed storage.

http://archive.is/LwxgZ
https://www.ft.com/content/2b0d8926-96d ... 88e51488a0

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LadyGeek
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:21 am

FYI - I removed an off-topic post and reply related to a public statement by JP Morgan executive Jamie Dimon. JP Morgan Ltd. and Morgan Stanley were shown to purchase Bitcoin ETNs after the statement was made.

Please stay focused on the investing aspects.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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LadyGeek
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:22 am

The wiki has some background info: Exchange traded note

Please read the FINRA Investor alert mentioned in the wiki article.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

am
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Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Post by am » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:11 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:48 am
kayanco wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:41 am
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:34 am
kayanco wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:22 am
Thanks for the link. It was an interesting read, but I'll guess that you are relying on technical analysis.
Technical analysis is useless for predicting the future. I call them as I see them, much like picking the winner of a football game.
Actually the "experts" are pumping a floor of $3000 so that's when many will jump back in.
Yea, just recently I'm coming across terms like:

floor, bottom
finding a floor
finding support

... all beyond me, this vernacular.
One must never invest in something one doesn't understand. That goes for the 5% roll the dice money too. It would not be prudent to shoot dice in an ally if one didn't understand the game.
I don't think you need to understand the fine inner workings of cryptocurrencies to invest (speculate :D ). The idea of them is pretty simple imho. The unknown is whether they will continue to gain traction or fall into the history books as a tulip mania type craze.

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