China to ban petrol cars

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steadyeddy
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by steadyeddy » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:04 pm

China won't do anything brash. The move to efficient vehicles is best accomplished through a slow-moving target like the CAFE standards in the U.S.

If China were to pass such a law, they would also need to build batteries in facilities that would dwarf the Tesla Gigafactory. I guess we can all watch for that.

bloom2708
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by bloom2708 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:15 pm

Gasoline will be 50 cents per gallon again after China and Europe and others go all electric. :o

Back to smooth, powerful V8s for everyone in the future! :wink:
"We are here not to please but to provoke thoughtfulness" Unknown Boglehead

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just frank
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:17 pm

steadyeddy wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:04 pm
China won't do anything brash. The move to efficient vehicles is best accomplished through a slow-moving target like the CAFE standards in the U.S.

If China were to pass such a law, they would also need to build batteries in facilities that would dwarf the Tesla Gigafactory. I guess we can all watch for that.
Several battery factories are being built in Asia that dwarf the Gigafactory. More such are in planning. Elon does not advertise this for some reason.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -batteries

misterno
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by misterno » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:33 pm

bottlecap wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:14 am
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
China bans a lot of things. Perhaps we shouldn't always take their lead.

JT
Did I say always?

The future of car technology is so obvious I can not believe not everyone is seeing it. It is right in front of your eyes

In this specific case, China is leading

Point
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Point » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:59 pm

Tell me how I can pull my 2000# RV and do 500-600 miles a day with an EV while touring the USA.

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unclescrooge
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by unclescrooge » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:35 pm

just frank wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:27 pm
unclescrooge wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:12 am
Don't most of China's population still use bicycles or mopeds?

This whole thread is irrelevant :mrgreen:
According to Forbes, sales of new cars to China exceeded the US number a few years back....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... f08c23aa8d

and it is still growing fast, while the US market is plateaued.

The change in per capita income/wealth in China in the last 15 years is similar to that that occurred in the US from 1900 to 1960.
Doesn't change the fact that there are probably 1.5 billion bicycles. :mrgreen:

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just frank
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:10 pm

unclescrooge wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:35 pm
just frank wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:27 pm
unclescrooge wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:12 am
Don't most of China's population still use bicycles or mopeds?

This whole thread is irrelevant :mrgreen:
According to Forbes, sales of new cars to China exceeded the US number a few years back....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... f08c23aa8d

and it is still growing fast, while the US market is plateaued.

The change in per capita income/wealth in China in the last 15 years is similar to that that occurred in the US from 1900 to 1960.
Doesn't change the fact that there are probably 1.5 billion bicycles. :mrgreen:
The same math suggests that the Chinese car 'fleet' will be larger than the US one in 5-7 years. In addition to the bicycles.

And electric bikes are very popular, I hear. :mrgreen:

munemaker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by munemaker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:22 pm

I am sure there are parts of the country where electric cars perform well.

I question though, whether they are well suited for us in the rural northeast. Commuting distances are long. How will winter traction be with the high-torque electric motor? How much is mileage and range impacted by defrosting the windows and heating the cabin (comes free with petrol engines) in winter weather? I am not an expert, just skeptical.

Electric cars are only as clean as their power source. If you live where most of the energy comes from wind and solar, then it makes sense. While decreasing, a lot of power is still generated by burning coal.

I would love to own an electric car if it were economical and practical. I think they are a long way off in our part of the country, at least as a primary vehicle. Maybe a system like the Chevrolet Volt (where it is primarily electric with a small ICE) would be superior for our part of the country.

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just frank
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:38 am

munemaker wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:22 pm
I am sure there are parts of the country where electric cars perform well.

I question though, whether they are well suited for us in the rural northeast. Commuting distances are long. How will winter traction be with the high-torque electric motor? How much is mileage and range impacted by defrosting the windows and heating the cabin (comes free with petrol engines) in winter weather? I am not an expert, just skeptical.

Electric cars are only as clean as their power source. If you live where most of the energy comes from wind and solar, then it makes sense. While decreasing, a lot of power is still generated by burning coal.

I would love to own an electric car if it were economical and practical. I think they are a long way off in our part of the country, at least as a primary vehicle. Maybe a system like the Chevrolet Volt (where it is primarily electric with a small ICE) would be superior for our part of the country.
Bottom line is that the electric range will drop in very cold weather. Cabin heating, defrost, snow tires, driving in snow will all take a hit on range. I have driven my 85 mile (EPA rated range) LEAF in three winters, with snows on. Its an **excellent** winter car...no worries about it starting like an ICE car. Mass and low center of gravity give it excellent ice/snow handling (with michelin XICE3 tires).

I am teaching my 16 yo to drive....we went out in snow and ice several times last year and **tried** to get loss of traction...maybe got the traction control light to fire for a couple fractions of a second...no loss of control.

Battery heater kicks on below 0°F to avoid the battery freezing. This is no problem if the car is plugged in....but is a problem with parking it out in a field for days <0°F. In a cold climate, it should be left plugged in during such weather (or in a warmer garage).

I think the worst case...simultaneously snow tires, defrost, 20°F, blizzard conditions, snow on road...it will still be less than a 50% hit on range. Typical winter driving...maybe a 25% hit on range.

So, factor that into your use cases if you live in the north. If you want an EV as a second car and the commute is less than 50% of the EPA electric range (which is already conservative)...it will be fine in the winter. Otherwise, wait for a longer range EV or get a PHEV like the Volt.

AS for grid source....an EV on the US grid-average in 2017 is 'cleaner' than a Prius. Outside appalachia, it is a no-brainer on that side.

Valuethinker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:00 am

bloom2708 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:15 pm
Gasoline will be 50 cents per gallon again after China and Europe and others go all electric. :o

Back to smooth, powerful V8s for everyone in the future! :wink:
It's worth reading Dieter Helm's Burnout: the end game in fossil fuels. Despite the title the book is mostly about what the big changes are that are coming-- in particular cheap solar will mean that utility companies become like broadband companies. Selling network access & reliability, rather than a units-of-use model. His working hypothesis is that due to fracking, fossil fuels (natural gas and oil) have become relatively cheap, and will stay cheap for the forseeable future.

He then goes through the implications for oil rich states like Russia & Saudi Arabia (really bad), the electric utility industry (mostly bad), the oil and gas industry.

Helm is a respected energy economist and adviser to the British government, based at Oxford University.

Valuethinker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:04 am

unclescrooge wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:12 am
Don't most of China's population still use bicycles or mopeds?

This whole thread is irrelevant :mrgreen:
When was the last time you were in China?

There are 1.4 billion people. This is a society that can have record use of public transport, bicycles etc. and *still* be the world's largest car market.

What you will notice when you go there is how big the roads are, and how many vehicles there are on them. They've repeated many of our worst mistakes of 1960s urban planning. They are now scrambling to build subways etc. But obesity has become a thing in China-- not bad for a country that within living memory endured one of the worst famines in human history (the so-called Great Leap Forward; "Welcome" in Chinese still translates as "Have you eaten?"). And so the government is beginning to reexamine bicycling as an efficient and healthy way to get around.

In fact in new cars, it is a larger market than USA. In total "car park" ie vehicle fleet it is still behind the USA.

Maverick3320
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Maverick3320 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:11 am

misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
Agreed. Banning things is good, and shows leadership.

Bogleheads mods, you used to be the leaders at banning clickbait/misleading threads but now look. I can not believe it is happenning

munemaker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by munemaker » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:58 am

just frank wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:38 am

AS for grid source....an EV on the US grid-average in 2017 is 'cleaner' than a Prius. Outside appalachia, it is a no-brainer on that side.
"Most of U.S. electricity is generated using fossil fuels...
Natural gas was the source of about 34% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016...
Coal was the second-largest energy source for U.S. electricity generation in 2016—about 30%...
Petroleum was the source of less than 1% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016...
Nuclear power was the source of about 20% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016...
Renewable energy sources provide 15% of U.S. electricity...Hydropower, the source of about 7% of total U.S. electricity generation (about 44% of electricity generation from renewable energy) in 2016, is a process in which flowing water spins a turbine connected to a generator."

Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... ted_states

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just frank
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:17 am

munemaker wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:58 am
just frank wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:38 am

AS for grid source....an EV on the US grid-average in 2017 is 'cleaner' than a Prius. Outside appalachia, it is a no-brainer on that side.
"Most of U.S. electricity is generated using fossil fuels...
Natural gas was the source of about 34% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016...
Coal was the second-largest energy source for U.S. electricity generation in 2016—about 30%...
Petroleum was the source of less than 1% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016...
Nuclear power was the source of about 20% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016...
Renewable energy sources provide 15% of U.S. electricity...Hydropower, the source of about 7% of total U.S. electricity generation (about 44% of electricity generation from renewable energy) in 2016, is a process in which flowing water spins a turbine connected to a generator."

Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... ted_states
Indeed. And the efficiency of the grid turbines running that mix of fuels is still more efficient than the best ICE engine burning gasoline.

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prudent
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by prudent » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:19 am

Topic is locked (not investing related).

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