Contemplating an Electric Car

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deanbrew
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by deanbrew » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:50 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:33 am
deanbrew wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:26 am

I would like to drive one sometime, but I don't know anybody who owns one. I shopped for a new car this summer, and I don't even recall seeing any at any of the dealers I visited.
Well, dealers won't have one, because Tesla doesn't work through dealers. Look online to see where the nearest sales office is; they'll be able to arrange a test drive.
https://www.tesla.com/findus/list/store ... d%20States
No, I know Teslas aren't sold through dealers. The closest Tesla store is more than two hours away.

I was talking about any kind of EV at all. I didn't see any... but I wasn't looking for them, either.
"The course of history shows that as the government grows, liberty decreases." Thomas Jefferson

squirm
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by squirm » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:35 am

emoore wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:05 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:29 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:57 am
To keep this actionable, my question is, should I replace my Prius for "fun" with an updated BEV or PHEV? When and what type.

Should I replace my wife's 17year old luxury SUV and if so, when and what type.

Requirements:
We do 3-4 long 6-12hr roadtrips each year for the in laws and safety is vital. We like to take our bikes from time to time. We carpool so a 3rd Row is a consideration. We usually carry the soccer canopy so trunk space is a consideration. Only 12 mile commutes each. Prefer to use waze apps in the phone than built into a nav system. We are cheap, but value conscious, can afford things.

I feel like I should do research and pricing now because it is a compelling inflection point and is intellectually stimulating, but I figure at any given time the luxury SUV will get a hefty repair bill to make us reconsider. Therefore, while the SUV can run theoretically last a long time, we might need to make a relatively quick decision at some point in the undetermined future. It is otherwise paid off and fully depreciated. Rated at 18/21 mpg, but probably fares a little worse.
I would wait.

The technology is in a state of quite rapid change. The size and capacity of battery packs. The vehicle telemetrics and automation.

There's a step change in what cars are and how they work going on. It will take 20 years to play out. But the potential changes are very large.

There will be better and more interesting EVs and PHEVs in 3 years time, say. OR, you buy a used vehicle (SUVs have high depreciation rates, I believe), and wait 6-7 years.
+1. I'm trying to hold out 5 years since I think the car offereings will be much better then.
Maybe. I know many of the car manufactures will be releasing many more EV models, but what ath the charging network? The charging network helps determine the depreciation of the car too....Why would anyone buy a car for "local driving". Five years from now Telsa will have even more superchargers. Today Tesla is the only car that you can reasonably do road trips with and not have to wait three hours for a full charge like the pathetic and slow public L2 chargers. Maybe, just maybe if the ICE manufactures can pull it off there will be a decent supply of public L3 DC fast charging, but I thought that's being initiated by other entities and at what pricing? Not too many will buy an EV if they're going to get robbed having to pay ridiculous electrical charges at public charging stations...might as well just buy a gas car.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:50 am

deanbrew wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:50 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:33 am
deanbrew wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:26 am

I would like to drive one sometime, but I don't know anybody who owns one. I shopped for a new car this summer, and I don't even recall seeing any at any of the dealers I visited.
Well, dealers won't have one, because Tesla doesn't work through dealers. Look online to see where the nearest sales office is; they'll be able to arrange a test drive.
https://www.tesla.com/findus/list/store ... d%20States
No, I know Teslas aren't sold through dealers. The closest Tesla store is more than two hours away.

I was talking about any kind of EV at all. I didn't see any... but I wasn't looking for them, either.
Sorry, I misunderstood. Still, others can use the link :D

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just frank
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:08 am

squirm wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:35 am
Maybe. I know many of the car manufactures will be releasing many more EV models, but what ath the charging network? The charging network helps determine the depreciation of the car too....Why would anyone buy a car for "local driving". Five years from now Telsa will have even more superchargers. Today Tesla is the only car that you can reasonably do road trips with and not have to wait three hours for a full charge like the pathetic and slow public L2 chargers. Maybe, just maybe if the ICE manufactures can pull it off there will be a decent supply of public L3 DC fast charging, but I thought that's being initiated by other entities and at what pricing? Not too many will buy an EV if they're going to get robbed having to pay ridiculous electrical charges at public charging stations...might as well just buy a gas car.
Not true that I have to wait 3 hours. My cheapo EV (made in 2013) charges at up to 50kW, and there are several L3 chargers in my area now that I can use on road trips to neighboring cities like NYC or Wilmington on Baltimore. At 50kW (initial, then slows down due to my small battery) I only add about 60 miles of range in 30 minutes. My next EV will add 80-90 miles in 30m on the same charging network.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:20 am

squirm wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:35 am
emoore wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:05 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:29 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:57 am
To keep this actionable, my question is, should I replace my Prius for "fun" with an updated BEV or PHEV? When and what type.

Should I replace my wife's 17year old luxury SUV and if so, when and what type.

Requirements:
We do 3-4 long 6-12hr roadtrips each year for the in laws and safety is vital. We like to take our bikes from time to time. We carpool so a 3rd Row is a consideration. We usually carry the soccer canopy so trunk space is a consideration. Only 12 mile commutes each. Prefer to use waze apps in the phone than built into a nav system. We are cheap, but value conscious, can afford things.

I feel like I should do research and pricing now because it is a compelling inflection point and is intellectually stimulating, but I figure at any given time the luxury SUV will get a hefty repair bill to make us reconsider. Therefore, while the SUV can run theoretically last a long time, we might need to make a relatively quick decision at some point in the undetermined future. It is otherwise paid off and fully depreciated. Rated at 18/21 mpg, but probably fares a little worse.
I would wait.

The technology is in a state of quite rapid change. The size and capacity of battery packs. The vehicle telemetrics and automation.

There's a step change in what cars are and how they work going on. It will take 20 years to play out. But the potential changes are very large.

There will be better and more interesting EVs and PHEVs in 3 years time, say. OR, you buy a used vehicle (SUVs have high depreciation rates, I believe), and wait 6-7 years.
+1. I'm trying to hold out 5 years since I think the car offereings will be much better then.
Maybe. I know many of the car manufactures will be releasing many more EV models, but what ath the charging network? The charging network helps determine the depreciation of the car too....Why would anyone buy a car for "local driving".
[/u]

Because that's all most people ever do with their cars.

We pay an enormous amount of Option Value for a metal thing that only goes long distances about 5% of its working life (or less).

For that, we could rent. Usership not Ownership -- people don't even buy new cars now, they lease them, so that's a very small step.
Five years from now Telsa will have even more superchargers. Today Tesla is the only car that you can reasonably do road trips with and not have to wait three hours for a full charge like the pathetic and slow public L2 chargers. Maybe, just maybe if the ICE manufactures can pull it off there will be a decent supply of public L3 DC fast charging, but I thought that's being initiated by other entities and at what pricing? Not too many will buy an EV if they're going to get robbed having to pay ridiculous electrical charges at public charging stations...might as well just buy a gas car.
There's a presupposition there. You've assumed the pricing will be adverse. There's no particular evidence that it will be. If there are lots of competing suppliers, it cannot be, because that will drive down prices.

The interesting development is going to be the EV power pack you lease back to the power company. Power companies are evolving from delivering on a units of use basis (the old long distance tariffs in phones) to providing capacity & reliability (the internet broadband model). One way to achieve that is to have a huge fleet of EVs out there, where you can draw power from them at peak periods-- peak periods are relatively brief (1-2 hours a day, usually) and peak periods where the sun is not shining even briefer (even in winter, this is less of a problem than one might think --North America is generally at relatively southern latitudes, for example Madison Wisconsin is at 43 degrees N, London England is at 51 degrees N, Edinburgh Scotland at 55 degrees N). Such a tariff would be set to always leave you say at 50% charge.

When the car owner finds out their car can be an income *generator* from the power company, that's going to be a popular service.

squirm
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by squirm » Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:25 am

just frank wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:08 am
squirm wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:35 am
Maybe. I know many of the car manufactures will be releasing many more EV models, but what ath the charging network? The charging network helps determine the depreciation of the car too....Why would anyone buy a car for "local driving". Five years from now Telsa will have even more superchargers. Today Tesla is the only car that you can reasonably do road trips with and not have to wait three hours for a full charge like the pathetic and slow public L2 chargers. Maybe, just maybe if the ICE manufactures can pull it off there will be a decent supply of public L3 DC fast charging, but I thought that's being initiated by other entities and at what pricing? Not too many will buy an EV if they're going to get robbed having to pay ridiculous electrical charges at public charging stations...might as well just buy a gas car.
Not true that I have to wait 3 hours. My cheapo EV (made in 2013) charges at up to 50kW, and there are several L3 chargers in my area now that I can use on road trips to neighboring cities like NYC or Wilmington on Baltimore. At 50kW (initial, then slows down due to my small battery) I only add about 60 miles of range in 30 minutes. My next EV will add 80-90 miles in 30m on the same charging network.
"charging up to 50kw" is the key word. 50kw is still slow and there's a lot of chargers out there that are only 20kw.

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just frank
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:25 am

squirm wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:25 am
just frank wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:08 am
squirm wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:35 am
Maybe. I know many of the car manufactures will be releasing many more EV models, but what ath the charging network? The charging network helps determine the depreciation of the car too....Why would anyone buy a car for "local driving". Five years from now Telsa will have even more superchargers. Today Tesla is the only car that you can reasonably do road trips with and not have to wait three hours for a full charge like the pathetic and slow public L2 chargers. Maybe, just maybe if the ICE manufactures can pull it off there will be a decent supply of public L3 DC fast charging, but I thought that's being initiated by other entities and at what pricing? Not too many will buy an EV if they're going to get robbed having to pay ridiculous electrical charges at public charging stations...might as well just buy a gas car.
Not true that I have to wait 3 hours. My cheapo EV (made in 2013) charges at up to 50kW, and there are several L3 chargers in my area now that I can use on road trips to neighboring cities like NYC or Wilmington on Baltimore. At 50kW (initial, then slows down due to my small battery) I only add about 60 miles of range in 30 minutes. My next EV will add 80-90 miles in 30m on the same charging network.
"charging up to 50kw" is the key word. 50kw is still slow and there's a lot of chargers out there that are only 20kw.
unhuh. 'Slow' usually indicates L2....less than 10 kW AC, and 2-10 hours.

I take my ICE cars on these trips when I can, and take my EV on these trips otherwise, and I don't sit for 3 hours. I park for 30 mins in a rest area, have a snack, use the bathroom, and I'm on my way again.
Last edited by just frank on Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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deanbrew
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by deanbrew » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:40 am

For that, we could rent. Usership not Ownership -- people don't even buy new cars now, they lease them, so that's a very small step.
This was mentioned a couple of times, and it's not true. More people are leasing cars now, but it's still a sizeable minority. In 2016, 30 percent of new vehicle "sales" were leases, so under one-third. The percentage is increasing, granted, but there are lots of threads on these boards debating the positives and negatives of leasing vs. buying. Frankly, I would be hard-pressed to equate a three-year lease with the short-term rental and "usership" you mention. That would belong to Zip Cars (and the like) and true short-term rentals.
"The course of history shows that as the government grows, liberty decreases." Thomas Jefferson

chessknt
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by chessknt » Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:29 pm

I strongly considered buying an ev but was deterred by several reasons: their resale value is dismal with the decreasing newer model msrp as technology improves (think circa 2000s pc vs 2010) and multiple unequal tax incentives (a leaf in michigan costs 10k more than a leaf in New Jersey by virtue of an extra rebate); I anticipate these will decline further if the ev federal rebates start to evaporate. Their long term reliability is suspect as can be seen on forums discussing dead cells and how to spot lemons in the used car lot. My 14 year old car reliably still gets me where I need to go and has never required anything other than it's routine maintenance but I have doubts that a similar aged ev could achieve that feat reliably without major costs. Finally my state heavily penalizes electric ownership with enormous reg fees as well as basing plate fees on their inflated msrp.

Huge plus is the minimal maintenance they require and generally no need to worry about refueling depending on commute length. I figure in 10 years I might get one but the time us still wrong on both economics and practicality.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by iamlucky13 » Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:01 am

hightower wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:50 am
deanbrew wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:59 pm
It won't be long? I find that hard to believe.
....
To summarize, I suppose, the finite limited range of EVs make them impractical for most people.
We're talking 10-15 years from now. Yes, currently EVs are not practical for people with driving habits like yours. However, the technology is moving in the direction of changing that completely. Read up on solid state batteries for instance. They will have a much higher energy density, smaller size and weight, much faster charging times, and lower costs. This is where Tesla and BMW and others are expecting to be. That's why I said "near future." Not right now obviously. But, having a car with 500 miles of electric range and the ability to fully charge it back up in 10-15 minutes is not an unreasonable expectation. We're not there yet, but I believe we will be relatively soon.
I don't think it will be that fast, although I also think range concerns tend to get exaggerated.

Basically the same things were all being said 10-15 year ago when Tesla was first starting to get noticed. I've seen more battery "breakthroughs" announced over that time than I can count - probably about every six months on average. New variations on lithium-ion batteries, several types of air batteries, flow batteries, glass batteries, zebra batteries, solid state batteries, and even hemp-based batteries. Very few of them actually result in anything close to their initial expectations, and the results are usually incremental performance improvements or major compromises on specific characteristics like charge rate or operating temperature.

I can't rule out a major leap entirely, but it's an unlikely bet to expect more than gradual improvements in battery performance, so I'm extremely dubious of reaching 500 mile range from affordable and reasonably sized battery packs in only 15 years.

10-15 minute charges for 500 mile ranges are not on the horizon with any technology, even if the batteries can handle it. With the current batteries, Tesla has started throttling rapid charges to a 1 hour rate after ~50 rapid charge cycles to protect their batteries. The battery-to-wheels efficiency and aerodynamics of cars like the Model S are already extremely good, so there's simply no physical possibility of getting radically better efficiency than the current ~3 miles per kWh. That means long range has to come from higher capacity batteries, so you're talking about battery packs approaching 150 kWh.

That means a 15 minute charge takes 600 kW - a power level at the high end of commercial service. For a gas station-style business, locations would be limited to where the power company can provide industrial service. Even the 120 kW system Tesla uses operates at voltage and current levels that present challenges ensuring it is safe for all contingencies of wear, damage, dust or debris, weather, and user error. And some owners already complain about how heavy and unwieldy the existing supercharger cord is.

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just frank
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:50 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:01 am

Basically the same things were all being said 10-15 year ago when Tesla was first starting to get noticed. I've seen more battery "breakthroughs" announced over that time than I can count - probably about every six months on average. New variations on lithium-ion batteries, several types of air batteries, flow batteries, glass batteries, zebra batteries, solid state batteries, and even hemp-based batteries. Very few of them actually result in anything close to their initial expectations, and the results are usually incremental performance improvements or major compromises on specific characteristics like charge rate or operating temperature.

I can't rule out a major leap entirely, but it's an unlikely bet to expect more than gradual improvements in battery performance, so I'm extremely dubious of reaching 500 mile range from affordable and reasonably sized battery packs in only 15 years.
I agree with the ridiculous 'breakthrough' stories that are really just noise and people doing honest self-promotion.

So we agree about progress, maybe...the models still suggest exponential cost reductions based upon a (production volume) learning curve, that yields something like 15% cap/$ improvement per year. In 15 years that is 1.15^15 = 8, which would drop the price to <$50/kWh, or <$750 for your 150 kWh pack.

So why are you 'extremely dubious' about long range EV cars being cheap in 15 years? Other modelers like Seba or BNEF think that ICE market disruption will be achieved in 5-10 years (with >200mile range BEVs).

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by lazydavid » Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:53 am

just frank wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:32 am
The other part is the 0-30 time, which even in a LEAF is quite peppy at 3.0 seconds due to the high low-end torque. Faster than 95% of ICE cars. Those 'EV grin' videos you see people doing in their high acceleration Tesla launches...we were doing those in 2014 in our LEAF.
I'm all about the low-end torque. My DD makes 500lbft of it, and does 0-30 in 2.0 seconds. But then it keeps on going, doubling its speed by the 4.5 second mark, during which time a Leaf has just gotten to 40. I LOVE being able to tap into that torque at any (legal) speed, not just from a stop.

Been enjoying the "oil burner grin" for 6 years now. :mrgreen:

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:48 am

deanbrew wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:40 am
For that, we could rent. Usership not Ownership -- people don't even buy new cars now, they lease them, so that's a very small step.
This was mentioned a couple of times, and it's not true. More people are leasing cars now, but it's still a sizeable minority. In 2016, 30 percent of new vehicle "sales" were leases, so under one-third. The percentage is increasing, granted, but there are lots of threads on these boards debating the positives and negatives of leasing vs. buying. Frankly, I would be hard-pressed to equate a three-year lease with the short-term rental and "usership" you mention. That would belong to Zip Cars (and the like) and true short-term rentals.
On the second point, I think the ice is broken. I agree leasing is not the same as rental, but the link between using a car, and owning it, is broken. And it's broken for the auto OEMs. The notion that people always own their cars or that having expensive pieces of metal in the driveway that are not used 95% of the day is the only way to have automobility.

On the first point, in the UK something like 60-70% of new cars are sold on various forms of leasing (PCPs).

Google tells me that for the USA, 84% of new car purchases are financed. The line between a car lease and an auto loan is very small
What percent of new cars are financed?
84.5 percent
A record 84.5 percent of shoppers who acquired a new car last quarter used financing, either a loan or a lease. That's the highest level since Experian Automotive, an information service company, began tracking this data in 2006.6 Sep 2013

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:13 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:01 am


That means a 15 minute charge takes 600 kW - a power level at the high end of commercial service. For a gas station-style business, locations would be limited to where the power company can provide industrial service. Even the 120 kW system Tesla uses operates at voltage and current levels that present challenges ensuring it is safe for all contingencies of wear, damage, dust or debris, weather, and user error. And some owners already complain about how heavy and unwieldy the existing supercharger cord is.
What is the home voltage for the Tesla charger? Outside North America, voltage tends to be 200-220v.

Note that petrol fueling has many issues with: safety & pollution. And spilled petrol is no joke-- corrosive, toxic, flamable. We tolerate a fuel that is a vapour at room temperature, explosive and toxic. Also when I was last home, a gas station attendant was run down and killed-- he tried to stop someone driving off without paying.

In other words, whilst EV charging poses a set of problems, they are probably more superable/ less insuperable than those around petrol engined refueling. Certainly far less so than in the early days of petrol engined cars.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by lazydavid » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:14 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:48 am
Google tells me that for the USA, 84% of new car purchases are financed. The line between a car lease and an auto loan is very small
What percent of new cars are financed?
84.5 percent
A record 84.5 percent of shoppers who acquired a new car last quarter used financing, either a loan or a lease. That's the highest level since Experian Automotive, an information service company, began tracking this data in 2006.6 Sep 2013
The article you quoted does not distinguish between them at all. It basically says 16% are bought for cash (or other consideration), and the remainder are either leased or financed via loan. But it doesn't break it down any further than that.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:07 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:14 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:48 am
Google tells me that for the USA, 84% of new car purchases are financed. The line between a car lease and an auto loan is very small
What percent of new cars are financed?
84.5 percent
A record 84.5 percent of shoppers who acquired a new car last quarter used financing, either a loan or a lease. That's the highest level since Experian Automotive, an information service company, began tracking this data in 2006.6 Sep 2013
The article you quoted does not distinguish between them at all. It basically says 16% are bought for cash (or other consideration), and the remainder are either leased or financed via loan. But it doesn't break it down any further than that.
I was arguing that, in fact, The two are pretty much The Same thing. They are both a monthly payment secured against an asset. Most buyers of new cars probably don't keep them much longer than the life of the finance.

I Actually did look up The other number And it's about 35 per cent. Should have posted the link.

But as I pointed out, in the UK, its nearer 70 per cent including pcp.

People are paying a very high option value for journeys that might be 5 per cent of their mileage and could be zero per cent.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by tj » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:12 pm

OK what I have exxed out is a forbidden topic on this forum. It is best not to use the words.
How is science a forbidden topic? I don't understand why you keep censoring people's posts in your replies.

denovo
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by denovo » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:52 pm

otinkyad wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:28 am

We took a Labor Day weekend trip, and every Model S we saw was hypermiling it, getting passed by semis, and apparently just hoping to make it to their destination. No thanks.

sounds like norcal

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by denovo » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:57 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:53 am
just frank wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:32 am
The other part is the 0-30 time, which even in a LEAF is quite peppy at 3.0 seconds due to the high low-end torque. Faster than 95% of ICE cars. Those 'EV grin' videos you see people doing in their high acceleration Tesla launches...we were doing those in 2014 in our LEAF.
I'm all about the low-end torque. My DD makes 500lbft of it, and does 0-30 in 2.0 seconds. But then it keeps on going, doubling its speed by the 4.5 second mark, during which time a Leaf has just gotten to 40. I LOVE being able to tap into that torque at any (legal) speed, not just from a stop.

Been enjoying the "oil burner grin" for 6 years now. :mrgreen:
Mustang GT?

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by madbrain » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:30 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:13 am
What is the home voltage for the Tesla charger? Outside North America, voltage tends to be 200-220v.
http://www.teslamotors.wiki/wiki/Supercharger

For those of a technical bent, here’s how a typical Supercharger (in this case, the one at Port St Lucie, FL) is configured: the eight bay setup, like the one shown on the first page of this chapter, takes a 12 kV, 750 kVA feed from the Utility, steps it down to 480V three phase on site, pushes that into 2000A switchgear which feeds four banks of Supercharger (SC) units (one for each pair of “pods”) at 480V/200A. Each unit contains twelve 10 kW rectifiers (the same “charger” that is found in Model S) giving a total of 120 kW per pair of pods.

So, looks like an individual charger needs 480V 3-phase power. This is typical for other DC fast chargers too, ChaDeMO and CCS types.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:38 am

tj wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:12 pm
OK what I have exxed out is a forbidden topic on this forum. It is best not to use the words.
How is science a forbidden topic? I don't understand why you keep censoring people's posts in your replies.
I got this one....because the subject you mentioned is a forbidden topic on this board, whether you like it or not. Some of us have received warnings and/or been suspended over it. The rationale for not using the words is that future Google searches to this board will bring unwelcome attention. @Valuethinker is thus abiding by the stated wishes of the mods.

Since science discussion is non-actionable, it may be deemed a 'trolling topic'

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lazydavid
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by lazydavid » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:49 am

denovo wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:57 pm
lazydavid wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:53 am
Been enjoying the "oil burner grin" for 6 years now. :mrgreen:
Mustang GT?
I saw what you did there. :mrgreen: But no, the Mustang has sparkplugs. My DD is a tuned BMW 335d.

Iorek
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Iorek » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:50 am

lazydavid wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:49 am
denovo wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:57 pm
lazydavid wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:53 am
Been enjoying the "oil burner grin" for 6 years now. :mrgreen:
Mustang GT?
I saw what you did there. :mrgreen: But no, the Mustang has sparkplugs. My DD is a tuned BMW 335d.
By "tuned" you mean you illegally modifed it so you can get more power but it no longer meets US emissions standards?

lazydavid
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by lazydavid » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:07 am

Iorek wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:50 am
lazydavid wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:49 am
denovo wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:57 pm
lazydavid wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:53 am
Been enjoying the "oil burner grin" for 6 years now. :mrgreen:
Mustang GT?
I saw what you did there. :mrgreen: But no, the Mustang has sparkplugs. My DD is a tuned BMW 335d.
By "tuned" you mean you illegally modifed it so you can get more power but it no longer meets US emissions standards?
No changes to the emissions system whatsoever, it still works normally. In fact, the warning that my DEF (Diesel Exhaust Fluid, a urea solution that reduces NOx in the SCR system) tank is low came up last week. It just adds more fuel to the throttle map. Diesels always run very lean, so no other changes need to be made to boost pressure, spark timing (which of course doesn't exist in this case), or anything else to produce more power. DEF is used at the rate of 2% of fuel consumption, so I do go through slightly more than stock, and need to refill every 10-11k miles or so.

Mine is an aftermarket piggyback unit, but there is a DME reflash available from select BMW dealers that works the same way and provides a similar increase in power--albeit at dramatically higher cost--which is covered by the factory/CPO/Extended warranty, including emissions.

tj
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by tj » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:14 am

I got this one....because the subject you mentioned is a forbidden topic on this board, whether you like it or not.
I didn't mention any subject, I'm just trying to following a forum. I don't see mods censoring posts. I saw a one user quote people and censor it which seemed peculiar. I also didn't see any commentary on climate policies.

TBillT
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by TBillT » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:52 am

I am not a huge EV supporter, but I call attention that NISSAN is apparently giving add'l $10k off 2017 LEAF in some markets thru your utility. So we are talking after discounts/rebates as low as $10k net new LEAF cost in some markets. This apparently to clear 2017 inventory. Check the web pages,

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just frank
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:14 am

tj wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:14 am
I got this one....because the subject you mentioned is a forbidden topic on this board, whether you like it or not.
I didn't mention any subject, I'm just trying to following a forum. I don't see mods censoring posts. I saw a one user quote people and censor it which seemed peculiar. I also didn't see any commentary on climate policies.
Indeed. The mods do a great and necessary job around here, and in practice have chosen to leave the usage that @Valuethinker responded to, (which is inoffensive IMO). Other similar usages, in different context, have been judged to be in violation of Board Rules, typically with thread deletion, and clear recommendations to users that @Valuethinker is acting upon.

If you need additional clarification of Board Rules, I suggest you PM @Valuethinker and/or the mods.

iamlucky13
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by iamlucky13 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:11 pm

just frank wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:50 am
iamlucky13 wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:01 am

Basically the same things were all being said 10-15 year ago when Tesla was first starting to get noticed. I've seen more battery "breakthroughs" announced over that time than I can count - probably about every six months on average. New variations on lithium-ion batteries, several types of air batteries, flow batteries, glass batteries, zebra batteries, solid state batteries, and even hemp-based batteries. Very few of them actually result in anything close to their initial expectations, and the results are usually incremental performance improvements or major compromises on specific characteristics like charge rate or operating temperature.

I can't rule out a major leap entirely, but it's an unlikely bet to expect more than gradual improvements in battery performance, so I'm extremely dubious of reaching 500 mile range from affordable and reasonably sized battery packs in only 15 years.
I agree with the ridiculous 'breakthrough' stories that are really just noise and people doing honest self-promotion.

So we agree about progress, maybe...the models still suggest exponential cost reductions based upon a (production volume) learning curve, that yields something like 15% cap/$ improvement per year. In 15 years that is 1.15^15 = 8, which would drop the price to <$50/kWh, or <$750 for your 150 kWh pack.

So why are you 'extremely dubious' about long range EV cars being cheap in 15 years? Other modelers like Seba or BNEF think that ICE market disruption will be achieved in 5-10 years (with >200mile range BEVs).
A zero got dropped. That should be $7500.

I'm dubious because there's not a clear pathway being demonstrated to such large cost reductions and comparable energy density improvements, and the projections vary significantly. Just on the cost side, I haven't done a thorough survey of estimates or checked their methodologies, but $100/kWh in the 2030 time frame seems common. I think that's for the full pack, not just the cells. I haven't seen a $50/kWh estimate. The best BNEF estimate I found was $73. Based on that and other factors, Bloomberg is forecasting electric cars achieving 50% of new sales around 2040. ~25 years sounds optimistic, but not unreasonable to me. They don't seem to be making predictions about range.

15% consecutive reductions for 15 straight years for a product already in mass production is a lot to bet on. I've seen a couple different BNEF estimates in summary articles, although not the reports behind them that detail methodology. Based the way they discuss the topic, some seem to use curve fitting, and some seem to use scaling rules of thumb (X% unit cost reduction for each Y ratio increase in volume). I'd be more interested in estimates based on raw materials costs at different volumes, and energy, labor, and automation cost models for the manufacturing process. The battery market has so far only moderately increased overall lithium demand, for example, but even the pessimistic EV adoption forecast would necessitate huge increases in lithium demand.

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just frank
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:17 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:11 pm
just frank wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:50 am
iamlucky13 wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:01 am

Basically the same things were all being said 10-15 year ago when Tesla was first starting to get noticed. I've seen more battery "breakthroughs" announced over that time than I can count - probably about every six months on average. New variations on lithium-ion batteries, several types of air batteries, flow batteries, glass batteries, zebra batteries, solid state batteries, and even hemp-based batteries. Very few of them actually result in anything close to their initial expectations, and the results are usually incremental performance improvements or major compromises on specific characteristics like charge rate or operating temperature.

I can't rule out a major leap entirely, but it's an unlikely bet to expect more than gradual improvements in battery performance, so I'm extremely dubious of reaching 500 mile range from affordable and reasonably sized battery packs in only 15 years.
I agree with the ridiculous 'breakthrough' stories that are really just noise and people doing honest self-promotion.

So we agree about progress, maybe...the models still suggest exponential cost reductions based upon a (production volume) learning curve, that yields something like 15% cap/$ improvement per year. In 15 years that is 1.15^15 = 8, which would drop the price to <$50/kWh, or <$750 for your 150 kWh pack.

So why are you 'extremely dubious' about long range EV cars being cheap in 15 years? Other modelers like Seba or BNEF think that ICE market disruption will be achieved in 5-10 years (with >200mile range BEVs).
A zero got dropped. That should be $7500.

I'm dubious because there's not a clear pathway being demonstrated to such large cost reductions and comparable energy density improvements, and the projections vary significantly. Just on the cost side, I haven't done a thorough survey of estimates or checked their methodologies, but $100/kWh in the 2030 time frame seems common. I think that's for the full pack, not just the cells. I haven't seen a $50/kWh estimate. The best BNEF estimate I found was $73. Based on that and other factors, Bloomberg is forecasting electric cars achieving 50% of new sales around 2040. ~25 years sounds optimistic, but not unreasonable to me. They don't seem to be making predictions about range.

15% consecutive reductions for 15 straight years for a product already in mass production is a lot to bet on. I've seen a couple different BNEF estimates in summary articles, although not the reports behind them that detail methodology. Based the way they discuss the topic, some seem to use curve fitting, and some seem to use scaling rules of thumb (X% unit cost reduction for each Y ratio increase in volume). I'd be more interested in estimates based on raw materials costs at different volumes, and energy, labor, and automation cost models for the manufacturing process. The battery market has so far only moderately increased overall lithium demand, for example, but even the pessimistic EV adoption forecast would necessitate huge increases in lithium demand.
oops about the zero. :oops: We need one of these guys with a coffee mug -----> :beer

Its just whether you 'believe' in learning curves or not. PV has had a bigger factor price drop over the last 20 years. When it broke $1/W (cells), everyone said...that's amazing....it will never get to $0.50. When it got to $0.50, everyone said, amazing...it will never get to $0.25, etc.

I agree with you about energy density...volume or weight...but those don't need to be 8X better in 15 years, just 2-3 better will be fine. And cost is easier to drop than physics and chemistry....its about supply chain in earth abundant materials, fabrications costs, capital and labor and those DO have a learning curve, whether there is a stated 'clear pathway' or not.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by itstoomuch » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:06 pm

OP,
I'm considering in asking son (32) to get an BMW or Audi or a T for the Bling. Which do you think would attract a BH type of date/mate?
Rev90517; 4 Incm stream buckets: SS+pension; dfr'd GLWB VA & FI anntys, by time & $$ laddered; Discretionary; Rentals. LTCi. Own, not asset. Tax 25%. Early SS. FundRatio (FR) >1.1 67/70yo

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by iamlucky13 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:53 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:13 am
iamlucky13 wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:01 am

That means a 15 minute charge takes 600 kW - a power level at the high end of commercial service. For a gas station-style business, locations would be limited to where the power company can provide industrial service. Even the 120 kW system Tesla uses operates at voltage and current levels that present challenges ensuring it is safe for all contingencies of wear, damage, dust or debris, weather, and user error. And some owners already complain about how heavy and unwieldy the existing supercharger cord is.
What is the home voltage for the Tesla charger? Outside North America, voltage tends to be 200-220v.

Note that petrol fueling has many issues with: safety & pollution. And spilled petrol is no joke-- corrosive, toxic, flamable. We tolerate a fuel that is a vapour at room temperature, explosive and toxic. Also when I was last home, a gas station attendant was run down and killed-- he tried to stop someone driving off without paying.

In other words, whilst EV charging poses a set of problems, they are probably more superable/ less insuperable than those around petrol engined refueling. Certainly far less so than in the early days of petrol engined cars.
In the US, it is 240V. Home charger options vary, but Tesla cars can use the onboard charger and a 240V, 50A outlet for up to about 10 kW, or wall-mounted charger for about 20 kW. The power demand of the wall mounted charger might be marginal for homes with 200A utility service if they also have electric heat.

There are certainly hazards with gasoline/petrol fueling, just like there are hazards even with regular household electrical voltages, but they are of a different nature, and in many scenarios, controlling ignition sources is easier than controlling conductive pathways.

Both hazards have over a century of consumer experience in understanding the conditions under which each hazard arises and mitigating them. On the electrical side, even after all that experience, items used by the general public at more than 240V and 50A, which aren't simply hard-wired by professional and controlled by an indirect means are rare, in large part because of the hazard. Off the top of my head, electric vehicle rapid chargers are the only example I can think of. Even in the workplace, using systems at higher voltage levels than 240V usually requires some training.

It's not useful to compare to the early days of petroleum-fueled vehicles, because even for new products, society doesn't accept a similar level of risk as 100 years ago.

Even 240V can be dangerous if failures occur:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpCowiYj1bY

I'm not going to link to any videos of 480V arc flash accidents. Some of them are very disturbing, and my point is not to try to sensationalize the matter with graphic demonstrations of worst cases. I'm just explaining why even making the current 400V, 120 kW chargers safe enough for general use was actually a fairly big deal from an engineering and safety standpoint.

Slacker
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Slacker » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:24 pm

Buster65 wrote:
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:28 pm
Hello I have about a year before I will be selling back my Audi A3 TDI to VW/Audi due to emissions scandal. I'm seriously considering an EV option and will look at Tesla Model 3 ( deposit made), the 2018 Leaf and the GM Bolt. I'd like to hear what Bogleheads think about EV's and if they think now is the time to get one or if its best to wait. I will admit their is a part of me that says buy a 3 years old Honda or Subaru and call it a day.
Getting back to the original question:

I think today is a little early, next year is still on the cutting edge - but the tax rebates make up for that to some degree.

2-3 years from now might be best.

10 years from now, it is my opinion (though crystal balls usually fail) that anyone with an ICE is going to see depreciation taking off through the roof far beyond what they could have expected as consumers will start to migrate to EV or cars as a service as we'd likely hit a tipping point of momentum on such moves due to costs of vehicles being in favor of EV and automation technology making the "Zipcar" and similar services more reliable and useful for wider audiences without having to walk/bike/take a bus to a local zipcar parking lot.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by squirm » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm

chessknt wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:29 pm
I strongly considered buying an ev but was deterred by several reasons: their resale value is dismal with the decreasing newer model msrp as technology improves (think circa 2000s pc vs 2010) and multiple unequal tax incentives (a leaf in michigan costs 10k more than a leaf in New Jersey by virtue of an extra rebate); I anticipate these will decline further if the ev federal rebates start to evaporate. Their long term reliability is suspect as can be seen on forums discussing dead cells and how to spot lemons in the used car lot. My 14 year old car reliably still gets me where I need to go and has never required anything other than it's routine maintenance but I have doubts that a similar aged ev could achieve that feat reliably without major costs. Finally my state heavily penalizes electric ownership with enormous reg fees as well as basing plate fees on their inflated msrp.

Huge plus is the minimal maintenance they require and generally no need to worry about refueling depending on commute length. I figure in 10 years I might get one but the time us still wrong on both economics and practicality.
The resale value is bad because of the tax rebates, state and utility incentives... Along with economics of scaling.

Battery technology isn't like silicon technology where the advantage is in shrinking silicon nodes, there's only so many elements in chemistry.
Last edited by squirm on Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by squirm » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:38 pm

Slacker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:24 pm
Buster65 wrote:
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:28 pm
Hello I have about a year before I will be selling back my Audi A3 TDI to VW/Audi due to emissions scandal. I'm seriously considering an EV option and will look at Tesla Model 3 ( deposit made), the 2018 Leaf and the GM Bolt. I'd like to hear what Bogleheads think about EV's and if they think now is the time to get one or if its best to wait. I will admit their is a part of me that says buy a 3 years old Honda or Subaru and call it a day.
Getting back to the original question:

I think today is a little early, next year is still on the cutting edge - but the tax rebates make up for that to some degree.

2-3 years from now might be best.

10 years from now, it is my opinion (though crystal balls usually fail) that anyone with an ICE is going to see depreciation taking off through the roof far beyond what they could have expected as consumers will start to migrate to EV or cars as a service as we'd likely hit a tipping point of momentum on such moves due to costs of vehicles being in favor of EV and automation technology making the "Zipcar" and similar services more reliable and useful for wider audiences without having to walk/bike/take a bus to a local zipcar parking lot.
Battery pricing is a huge advantage as the price continues to drop.i also believe a good charging network has a huge advantage.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by ncbill » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:51 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:29 pm
The technology is in a state of quite rapid change. The size and capacity of battery packs. The vehicle telemetrics and automation.

There will be better and more interesting EVs and PHEVs in 3 years time, say. OR, you buy a used vehicle (SUVs have high depreciation rates, I believe), and wait 6-7 years.
No need to wait - just don't buy.

Thanks to the cachet of Tesla and relatively low fuel prices there have been attractive leases on other EV/PHEV models like the Bolt, Volt, Leaf.

I expect that to continue, and so am personally waiting for a 'cheap' Volt lease.

That model will cover my normal daily driving & can recharge overnight via a 120VAC extension cord.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Iorek » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:52 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:07 am
Iorek wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:50 am
lazydavid wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:49 am
denovo wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:57 pm
lazydavid wrote:
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:53 am
Been enjoying the "oil burner grin" for 6 years now. :mrgreen:
Mustang GT?
I saw what you did there. :mrgreen: But no, the Mustang has sparkplugs. My DD is a tuned BMW 335d.
By "tuned" you mean you illegally modifed it so you can get more power but it no longer meets US emissions standards?
No changes to the emissions system whatsoever, it still works normally. In fact, the warning that my DEF (Diesel Exhaust Fluid, a urea solution that reduces NOx in the SCR system) tank is low came up last week. It just adds more fuel to the throttle map. Diesels always run very lean, so no other changes need to be made to boost pressure, spark timing (which of course doesn't exist in this case), or anything else to produce more power. DEF is used at the rate of 2% of fuel consumption, so I do go through slightly more than stock, and need to refill every 10-11k miles or so.

Mine is an aftermarket piggyback unit, but there is a DME reflash available from select BMW dealers that works the same way and provides a similar increase in power--albeit at dramatically higher cost--which is covered by the factory/CPO/Extended warranty, including emissions.
I appreciate that you're not disconnecting the DPF like the rolling coal idiots and you are still using DEF but I would say it's not accurate to say there are no changes to the emissions system-- the DME is an essential part of the emissions systems (could even argue the most important part).

I am pretty sceptical that you can increase power with no adverse effect on emissions, and I'd be curious to see where BMW dealers are advertising a DME reflash that does this.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:51 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:53 pm

Both hazards have over a century of consumer experience in understanding the conditions under which each hazard arises and mitigating them. On the electrical side, even after all that experience, items used by the general public at more than 240V and 50A, which aren't simply hard-wired by professional and controlled by an indirect means are rare, in large part because of the hazard. Off the top of my head, electric vehicle rapid chargers are the only example I can think of. Even in the workplace, using systems at higher voltage levels than 240V usually requires some training.

It's not useful to compare to the early days of petroleum-fueled vehicles, because even for new products, society doesn't accept a similar level of risk as 100 years ago.

Even 240V can be dangerous if failures occur:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpCowiYj1bY

I'm not going to link to any videos of 480V arc flash accidents. Some of them are very disturbing, and my point is not to try to sensationalize the matter with graphic demonstrations of worst cases. I'm just explaining why even making the current 400V, 120 kW chargers safe enough for general use was actually a fairly big deal from an engineering and safety standpoint.
This is precisely why we have EVSEs, rather than just ubiquitous giant HV plugs. In any EVSE, the plug is dead until the contact is made and the circuit is verified via a low voltage handshake. Of course, NEMA15-50s are an exception to that, and a greater hazard than a hard-wired EVSE....but people have been using those for many years at places like RV parks. Outside the US, most plugs are better designed to be 'finger safe'.

The EV makers wanted exactly ZERO electrocutions of EV drivers before mass adoption, for obvious reasons. This extreme safety factor costs me $600.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by lazydavid » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:04 am

Iorek wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:52 pm
I appreciate that you're not disconnecting the DPF like the rolling coal idiots and you are still using DEF but I would say it's not accurate to say there are no changes to the emissions system-- the DME is an essential part of the emissions systems (could even argue the most important part).

I am pretty sceptical that you can increase power with no adverse effect on emissions, and I'd be curious to see where BMW dealers are advertising a DME reflash that does this.
this is the flash that my local dealer offers. You can check their dealer network, there are a decent number of BMW dealers and quite a few Mercedes dealers on the list. Renntech is an authorized tuner for both brands.

But my piggyback doesn't even modify the DME. It simply tweaks the signal from the fuel rail sensor to result in adding more fuel across the throttle map. Essentially it gives the accelerator an extra 15-20% travel. That's it. If you're constantly at WOT (which I'm not), EGTs are about 60 degrees higher than stock. But all the stock protections in the DME are still functional, including the one that trims fuel delivery if EGT gets too high.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by iamlucky13 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:34 am

just frank wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:51 am
iamlucky13 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:53 pm

Both hazards have over a century of consumer experience in understanding the conditions under which each hazard arises and mitigating them. On the electrical side, even after all that experience, items used by the general public at more than 240V and 50A, which aren't simply hard-wired by professional and controlled by an indirect means are rare, in large part because of the hazard. Off the top of my head, electric vehicle rapid chargers are the only example I can think of. Even in the workplace, using systems at higher voltage levels than 240V usually requires some training.
This is precisely why we have EVSEs, rather than just ubiquitous giant HV plugs. In any EVSE, the plug is dead until the contact is made and the circuit is verified via a low voltage handshake. Of course, NEMA15-50s are an exception to that, and a greater hazard than a hard-wired EVSE....but people have been using those for many years at places like RV parks. Outside the US, most plugs are better designed to be 'finger safe'.

The EV makers wanted exactly ZERO electrocutions of EV drivers before mass adoption, for obvious reasons. This extreme safety factor costs me $600.
Yes, it is, but it doesn't stop there. Shorts, ground faults, high resistance connections, and I'm sure other issues I'm not of can potentially arise despite a good data connection. It's all, as far as I know, quite well protected against, but significantly increasing the power levels even further also increase the degree of protection needed.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:34 am

ncbill wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:51 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:29 pm
The technology is in a state of quite rapid change. The size and capacity of battery packs. The vehicle telemetrics and automation.

There will be better and more interesting EVs and PHEVs in 3 years time, say. OR, you buy a used vehicle (SUVs have high depreciation rates, I believe), and wait 6-7 years.
No need to wait - just don't buy.

Thanks to the cachet of Tesla and relatively low fuel prices there have been attractive leases on other EV/PHEV models like the Bolt, Volt, Leaf.

I expect that to continue, and so am personally waiting for a 'cheap' Volt lease.
In all honesty I don't think that's the reason for cheap leases. I do believe that we will reach 100% electrically driven personal transport by somewhere around 2050*, I don't think that's the reason for the cheap leases.

It's partly due to capital markets: there's an absence of stuff that pays a yield, so securitizing car finance and selling it to investors who therefore earn another 50 basis points (0.5%) on the yield, is a profitable activity. Investors have bid up the price (down the yield) of these things in a world where safe government bonds pay near zero per cent.

It's also because the OEMs have had trouble shifting the EVs that they have built, and they have an increasing need to do so for MPG and environmental target reasons, among other things.

EVs, ex subsidies, are not yet attractive to most buyers. Fuel costs are not high enough and the other advantages are not clear so the mainstream buyer, as opposed to the Early Adopter, is not yet taking the risk.

EV prices have to come down, too.
That model will cover my normal daily driving & can recharge overnight via a 120VAC extension cord.
* there's also Hydrogen Fuel Cells-- but that technology seems way behind.

I would always have said sometime around 2050 but what's changed in my view in the last 5 years say, and just Frank was well ahead of me there, is that it could be 2040 not 2059. It's not likely to be 2040, but that date is now possible.

I am, as ever, reminded of the "Great Smog" of London in 1952 when perhaps 10,000 people died (eventually) of respiratory ailments associated with a thermal inversion and the sulphur dioxide and particulates from coal used for heating. In that week, buses were kept moving by having a man with a torch (flashlight) walking in front of the bus. The public demanded action and the great movement to a smokeless London began.

The Cabinet Papers of the time have been declassified. The Cabinet thought it impossibly expensive, and impractical. However the public did not. The force of popular opinion forced the Government's hand (this was a Tory/ Conservative government throughout this period) and the first of the Smokeless Orders were passed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

London once again has that sort of air pollution problem, as do many of the world's great cities.

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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:17 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:34 am
just frank wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:51 am
iamlucky13 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:53 pm

Both hazards have over a century of consumer experience in understanding the conditions under which each hazard arises and mitigating them. On the electrical side, even after all that experience, items used by the general public at more than 240V and 50A, which aren't simply hard-wired by professional and controlled by an indirect means are rare, in large part because of the hazard. Off the top of my head, electric vehicle rapid chargers are the only example I can think of. Even in the workplace, using systems at higher voltage levels than 240V usually requires some training.
This is precisely why we have EVSEs, rather than just ubiquitous giant HV plugs. In any EVSE, the plug is dead until the contact is made and the circuit is verified via a low voltage handshake. Of course, NEMA15-50s are an exception to that, and a greater hazard than a hard-wired EVSE....but people have been using those for many years at places like RV parks. Outside the US, most plugs are better designed to be 'finger safe'.

The EV makers wanted exactly ZERO electrocutions of EV drivers before mass adoption, for obvious reasons. This extreme safety factor costs me $600.
Yes, it is, but it doesn't stop there. Shorts, ground faults, high resistance connections, and I'm sure other issues I'm not of can potentially arise despite a good data connection. It's all, as far as I know, quite well protected against, but significantly increasing the power levels even further also increase the degree of protection needed.
Agree. For the record, a common complaint about EVs is that the EVSEs are finicky....a lot of people complain their car will simply refuse to charge...turns out their outlet was miswired or had a defective ground for many years until their car complained!

ncbill
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by ncbill » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:03 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:34 am
ncbill wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:51 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:29 pm
The technology is in a state of quite rapid change. The size and capacity of battery packs. The vehicle telemetrics and automation.

There will be better and more interesting EVs and PHEVs in 3 years time, say. OR, you buy a used vehicle (SUVs have high depreciation rates, I believe), and wait 6-7 years.
No need to wait - just don't buy.

Thanks to the cachet of Tesla and relatively low fuel prices there have been attractive leases on other EV/PHEV models like the Bolt, Volt, Leaf.

I expect that to continue, and so am personally waiting for a 'cheap' Volt lease.
In all honesty I don't think that's the reason for cheap leases. I do believe that we will reach 100% electrically driven personal transport by somewhere around 2050*, I don't think that's the reason for the cheap leases.

It's partly due to capital markets: there's an absence of stuff that pays a yield, so securitizing car finance and selling it to investors who therefore earn another 50 basis points (0.5%) on the yield, is a profitable activity. Investors have bid up the price (down the yield) of these things in a world where safe government bonds pay near zero per cent.

It's also because the OEMs have had trouble shifting the EVs that they have built, and they have an increasing need to do so for MPG and environmental target reasons, among other things.

EVs, ex subsidies, are not yet attractive to most buyers. Fuel costs are not high enough and the other advantages are not clear so the mainstream buyer, as opposed to the Early Adopter, is not yet taking the risk.

EV prices have to come down, too.
That model will cover my normal daily driving & can recharge overnight via a 120VAC extension cord.
* there's also Hydrogen Fuel Cells-- but that technology seems way behind.

I would always have said sometime around 2050 but what's changed in my view in the last 5 years say, and just Frank was well ahead of me there, is that it could be 2040 not 2059. It's not likely to be 2040, but that date is now possible.

I am, as ever, reminded of the "Great Smog" of London in 1952 when perhaps 10,000 people died (eventually) of respiratory ailments associated with a thermal inversion and the sulphur dioxide and particulates from coal used for heating. In that week, buses were kept moving by having a man with a torch (flashlight) walking in front of the bus. The public demanded action and the great movement to a smokeless London began.

The Cabinet Papers of the time have been declassified. The Cabinet thought it impossibly expensive, and impractical. However the public did not. The force of popular opinion forced the Government's hand (this was a Tory/ Conservative government throughout this period) and the first of the Smokeless Orders were passed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

London once again has that sort of air pollution problem, as do many of the world's great cities.
Sure, I agree pollution concerns will penalize ICE/reward EV use in urban areas.

But I don't care what drives down my net cost of EV/PHEV use as long as it benefits me. :)

BTW, forget fuel cells for personal vehicles, as it's much cheaper to just add more battery capacity or an ICE range extender.

seychellois_lib
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by seychellois_lib » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:07 pm

I have a Spark EV lease and a 240 Volt charger at home. This is a good combo for charging convenience but the car's range has been a limitation for me. if I had 200 miles (vice 80) I would be a happy camper. For ICE we have a small Mazda van. It is absolutely true with a little planning my Wife and I can operate fine but I really don't want to have to plan my driving a day ahead of time.

If I could have a really cheap electric car I would be able to put up with the planning part. But cheap also includes not having to buy because prices of used lower range electrics are tanking hard, and I mean HARD. I suspect the same will happen to second gen. However, I think I have found a little window into cheap and returnable. I will have to return my Spark in December so I've been looking at alternatives: buy a used high gas mileage ICE, lease a Bolt (costly) , lease a Tesla (trendy and costly) or aha! take over someones existing electric lease. For whatever reason there are a number of killer deals for electric lease assumptions. I could get a Spark EV for almost half the monthly I am currently paying. They come with the commuter lane tags in California so that is good and some of them have way below the allocated lease miles. Drive away has been paid and the transfer fee is very negotiable based upon what I've seen. If one is careful about inspecting the car for damage, this seems like a great way to take advantage of the declining value of lower range electrics. Goodness knows what the finance companies are going to do with all of the lease returns.

Iorek
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Iorek » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:55 pm

seychellois_lib wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:07 pm
I have a Spark EV lease and a 240 Volt charger at home. This is a good combo for charging convenience but the car's range has been a limitation for me. if I had 200 miles (vice 80) I would be a happy camper. For ICE we have a small Mazda van. It is absolutely true with a little planning my Wife and I can operate fine but I really don't want to have to plan my driving a day ahead of time.

If I could have a really cheap electric car I would be able to put up with the planning part. But cheap also includes not having to buy because prices of used lower range electrics are tanking hard, and I mean HARD. I suspect the same will happen to second gen. However, I think I have found a little window into cheap and returnable. I will have to return my Spark in December so I've been looking at alternatives: buy a used high gas mileage ICE, lease a Bolt (costly) , lease a Tesla (trendy and costly) or aha! take over someones existing electric lease. For whatever reason there are a number of killer deals for electric lease assumptions. I could get a Spark EV for almost half the monthly I am currently paying. They come with the commuter lane tags in California so that is good and some of them have way below the allocated lease miles. Drive away has been paid and the transfer fee is very negotiable based upon what I've seen. If one is careful about inspecting the car for damage, this seems like a great way to take advantage of the declining value of lower range electrics. Goodness knows what the finance companies are going to do with all of the lease returns.
I would assume the finance companies are going to auction off the cars cheap, and at some point they'll be willing to sell cars coming off their lease cheap to the lessee. I'll have a spark coming off lease next year and if I can buy it for $8-10k I probably will. That seems to be what used leafs go for these days.

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just frank
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:45 am

Iorek wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:55 pm
seychellois_lib wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:07 pm
I have a Spark EV lease and a 240 Volt charger at home. This is a good combo for charging convenience but the car's range has been a limitation for me. if I had 200 miles (vice 80) I would be a happy camper. For ICE we have a small Mazda van. It is absolutely true with a little planning my Wife and I can operate fine but I really don't want to have to plan my driving a day ahead of time.

If I could have a really cheap electric car I would be able to put up with the planning part. But cheap also includes not having to buy because prices of used lower range electrics are tanking hard, and I mean HARD. I suspect the same will happen to second gen. However, I think I have found a little window into cheap and returnable. I will have to return my Spark in December so I've been looking at alternatives: buy a used high gas mileage ICE, lease a Bolt (costly) , lease a Tesla (trendy and costly) or aha! take over someones existing electric lease. For whatever reason there are a number of killer deals for electric lease assumptions. I could get a Spark EV for almost half the monthly I am currently paying. They come with the commuter lane tags in California so that is good and some of them have way below the allocated lease miles. Drive away has been paid and the transfer fee is very negotiable based upon what I've seen. If one is careful about inspecting the car for damage, this seems like a great way to take advantage of the declining value of lower range electrics. Goodness knows what the finance companies are going to do with all of the lease returns.
I would assume the finance companies are going to auction off the cars cheap, and at some point they'll be willing to sell cars coming off their lease cheap to the lessee. I'll have a spark coming off lease next year and if I can buy it for $8-10k I probably will. That seems to be what used leafs go for these days.
Depending on the timing, you should be able to get a Gen 2 LEAF for a cheap lease next year. I know that Spark folks love the Spark, and LEAF people the LEAF, but you will want to take a look.

I just got to kick the tires and sit in a 2018 LEAF. 8-) Looked pretty spiffy. Word from corporate is that the price/deals on the 2018 will be similar to or cheaper than the (smaller battery) 2017. This is for a restyled 40 kWh, ~150mi mid-size sedan with a ton of cargo space and 5 seats. The CW is that the 60 kW, 220 mile version won't be available until into 2019 and will be a bit higher in price.

And the 2018 LEAF has ProPilot...Nissan's adaptive cruise control and highway lane keeping feature in the two upper trims. Reviewers like it better than the Tesla version.

The cheaper trim with autopilot is at $32,500 MSRP....I think it will lease out at $2k down, $220/mo starting in Jan 2018 in the CARB states, Mar 2018 most other places. They are clearly staking out the current cost/range gap between the myriad Gen 1 units (at similar pricing) and the Bolt/Model 3 (at significantly higher price).

Plymouth56
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by Plymouth56 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:23 pm

Either of you guys ever drive an EV? If not, you don't understand the initial 'fun' comment. I do, and I am NOT a hypermiler.
[/quote]

I would ask the same question as I am into the the first month of ownership of my new to me 2015 Leaf.
And guess what ? It is fun to drive!

otinkyad
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by otinkyad » Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:22 pm

just frank wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:45 am
And the 2018 LEAF has ProPilot...Nissan's adaptive cruise control and highway lane keeping feature in the two upper trims.
When I was comparing different Leaf models before I bought mine, I realized that even ordinary cruise control and satellite navigation were pretty useless on this car. Seems weird to add this to a car they sell below cost.

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just frank
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Re: Contemplating an Electric Car

Post by just frank » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:53 pm

otinkyad wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:22 pm
just frank wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:45 am
And the 2018 LEAF has ProPilot...Nissan's adaptive cruise control and highway lane keeping feature in the two upper trims.
When I was comparing different Leaf models before I bought mine, I realized that even ordinary cruise control and satellite navigation were pretty useless on this car. Seems weird to add this to a car they sell below cost.
I am not a fan of in-car nav systems, and I don't ever use ordinary cruise control. So I got the 'S' trim LEAF that did not have any of that stuff.

That said, the 'ProPilot' is a different beast than what is in the Gen 1 upper trims. Nissan sees success at autonomy as existential, I think, and have sunk some serious resources into it. early user reviews will be the tell. I haven't gotten a test drive yet.

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