Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
pascal
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 5:05 pm

Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by pascal » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:36 pm

Hi,

Some lunch room conversations at work indicated that some people seem to have made a killing in at least one of these companies. That got me thinking that the reason I didnt own any of these was because I owned the total stock market funds and wouldn't want to risk individual stocks. But these stock tickers meteoric rise in the past 4 years makes me feel that I missed the bus on these stocks :confused

Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?

I don't want to divert from the Boglehead philosophy but things do seem beguiling at times :twisted:
"Never underestimate the ability of a bad situation to get worse...rapidly." Ninegrams

sandramjet
Posts: 231
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:28 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by sandramjet » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:39 pm

If you own the whole market, you can brag that you do in fact own ALL of those!

anil686
Posts: 751
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 12:33 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by anil686 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:44 pm

3 comments to your post
a). Yes - I feel I missed out. They did not seem risky sounds like hindsight bias to me. TSLA always looked like their valuation was stretched from the get go. It really underplays TSLA's volatility during it's rise. Amazon is probably the easy one to say it did not feel risky because it is used so much and was able to diversify it's business into the cloud, etc.

B). I bought the growth index about a year ago - I think I am performance chasing - I am fine with that I guess. It is only about 3% and I do not plan to bring it above 5% overall. I think it is my way of placating myself. Really I do not expect it to make a difference over a long period of time.

C). Look back at comparing growth index, value index, TSM from various time points in the 1990s to current with the understanding that Apple's tremendous run happened during that time and it has been part of the growth index. TSM, Growth and Value end up via DCA near the same end result - that tells me it probably does not matter much. Four years is a very short time period to look over - JMO though

User avatar
BlueEars
Posts: 3634
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2007 12:15 am
Location: West Coast

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by BlueEars » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:46 pm

Someone observed that you have to take some major roller coaster rides when investing in growth stocks. Said another way, look at some of those charts (on a log scale) for the ones you've mentioned. You will see some deep dives (AMZN took a dive in the early 2000's). Then you may look at some former growth stocks that took similar dives and did not recover so well. So it's not an easy thing to select the stock, understand whether the growth phase is over (is Nike stock just taking a rest?), or continue the ride.

If I were younger I might take a modest percentage and stick it into a few growth stocks. You should do this for the long term, at least 10 years. Maybe the best time to do this is when everything is getting clobbered in a general recession. In the meantime, do your homework.

User avatar
bottlecap
Posts: 5893
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:21 pm
Location: Tennessee

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by bottlecap » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:50 pm

Yes. I want to go back and invest in those companies.

But that is fantasy. It's dreaming.

As is the millions the people in the lunch room made on these stocks. If they really did so well, why are they still in the lunchroom and not scarfing down caviar on the links?

Things are not always as people would have you believe.

JT

User avatar
InvestorNewb
Posts: 1597
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:27 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by InvestorNewb » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:51 pm

The problem is you have to bet big to win big. That is unless you happened to get extremely lucky and buy these companies when they first went public.

bottlecap brings up a good point. If they made that much of a killing, why are they still working?
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

Jags4186
Posts: 2626
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:12 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Jags4186 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:51 pm

I do. I'm happy with where I am but I can't help but be jealous. It's tough because I graduated from college in 2008 so since then the market has basically only gone up. It's a lot easier to be a hero when you first start investing in a 9 year old bull market after a 50% crash. At least, I keep telling myself that.

Accrual
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Accrual » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:52 pm

Comparison is the thief of joy.

Don't sweat it - could have easily gone the other way.

User avatar
FrugalInvestor
Posts: 4927
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:20 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by FrugalInvestor » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:52 pm

sandramjet wrote:If you own the whole market, you can brag that you do in fact own ALL of those!
Exactly! Whenever a similar converstion comes up I can say "I own that" because in all likelihood I do. Makes me look smart, which I am. :D
IGNORE the noise! | Our life is frittered away by detail... simplify, simplify. - Henry David Thoreau

NiceUnparticularMan
Posts: 1740
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:51 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by NiceUnparticularMan » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:52 pm

Oddly enough, people who have done poorly on their stock picks tend not to brag in the lunch room. People who have picked some winners and some losers tend to talk more about their winners.

The bottom line is you really shouldn't talk to the dart-throwing monkeys about how they are doing. They are not going to give you unbiased reports.

User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 5284
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:53 pm

sandramjet wrote:If you own the whole market, you can brag that you do in fact own ALL of those!
Yep, you can say I bought them all once they got big enough.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

lack_ey
Posts: 6635
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:55 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by lack_ey » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:53 pm

Not that risky? Are you serious? A few years ago Tesla had barely sold any automobiles and was bleeding cash furiously and known for underdelivering (actually, that's largely still true, though the coming expansion to mass market and new plants are closer to reality). Amazon was still on the trajectory of growth but hadn't struck it big with massive Prime subscriptions and web services revenue yet; this was all a possibility but far from a sure thing, and in the past few years it could have been a competitor (a similar service, let's say eBay doing better, one of the foreign competitors, or say Walmart actually getting into gear faster to compete with Amazon online) making Amazon's money and growth now, rather than Amazon. Likewise it could have been Hulu or some other services instead of Netflix, a foreign competitor, others going the HBO route and getting subscribers themselves, less cord cutting than we saw, people using SingTV / Playstation TV / etc. instead, maybe a greater audience for live TV than expected, etc.

All of these were trading at fairly high valuations by any measure back then and are now. Everything can easily change, especially with a recession or other disruption, never mind to the industries as a whole.

User avatar
DaftInvestor
Posts: 4091
Joined: Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:11 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by DaftInvestor » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:53 pm

I owned AMZN back in 2001-ish for a few years so I could say if I held on to it I would have made a lot of money.
However - I also held a lot of other individual stocks - many of which didn't fare as well. I'm guessing many of your lunch room friends that made some money on AMZN lost money on several other picks (they just don't talk about their losers).
I've never regretted trading in all my individual stock picks for an Index fund.
Last edited by DaftInvestor on Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Theoretical
Posts: 1439
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:09 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Theoretical » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:54 pm

For me, they have great products but hold no interest as investments because a lot of the technology disrupters are too early or stumble into oblivion.

I'm ok with missing "the next big thing."

BogleMelon
Posts: 1513
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:49 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by BogleMelon » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:57 pm

That person who made a killing in at one of these stock, is the same person who lost a fortune in another stock. Otherwise that person would know how to predict the future and beat the market consistently which is never heard of!
So next time when they say that, you say "and I beat that person's net gains assuming all his other loses"
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

AlwaysBeClimbing
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:39 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by AlwaysBeClimbing » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:58 pm

pascal wrote:Hi,

Some lunch room conversations at work indicated that some people seem to have made a killing in at least one of these companies. That got me thinking that the reason I didnt own any of these was because I owned the total stock market funds and wouldn't want to risk individual stocks. But these stock tickers meteoric rise in the past 4 years makes me feel that I missed the bus on these stocks :confused

Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?

I don't want to divert from the Boglehead philosophy but things do seem beguiling at times :twisted:
Sure, but then to be sure you didn't miss any potential high-flyers you'd need to cover all the numbers on the roulette wheel. TSM does a pretty good job of doing just that.

TareNeko
Posts: 584
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:27 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TareNeko » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:02 pm

It is 100% hindsight bias. Here is the proof: Why don't you pick 3 stocks now which are not that risky, and will have similar growth to amzn/nflx/tsla?
pascal wrote:Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

User avatar
flamesabers
Posts: 1757
Joined: Fri Mar 03, 2017 12:05 pm
Location: Rochester, MN

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by flamesabers » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:03 pm

pascal wrote:Hi,

Some lunch room conversations at work indicated that some people seem to have made a killing in at least one of these companies. That got me thinking that the reason I didnt own any of these was because I owned the total stock market funds and wouldn't want to risk individual stocks. But these stock tickers meteoric rise in the past 4 years makes me feel that I missed the bus on these stocks :confused

Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?

I don't want to divert from the Boglehead philosophy but things do seem beguiling at times :twisted:
I don't worry about the missed opportunities with not investing in individual stocks. There's a bit of a dichotomy with investing in individual stocks I think: if you invest only fun money you'll probably never make much money even if your company is very successful. However, if you invest a large piece of your portfolio in individual stocks, you're taking a huge gamble. Something I keep in mind is for every Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, etc., there are a whole lot of companies that failed. Trying to pick the next big corporate giant is like trying to buy the next winning lottery ticket. A handful of people succeed whilst everyone else ends up poorer as a result. I don't feel that lucky, so I'm not tempted to try.

SimplicityNow
Posts: 477
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:31 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by SimplicityNow » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:33 pm

You also have to consider survivorship bias. There are other companies that had potential and were high fliers and are no longer in business.

I'm sure the ones who own Amazon and Netflix also own or have owned plenty of losers.

Be content with enough.

jebmke
Posts: 8463
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:44 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by jebmke » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:38 pm

I still have former colleagues who loaded up on tech stocks in the 90s. They are still working. :beer
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

User avatar
Dendritic Tree
Posts: 127
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:20 pm
Contact:

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Dendritic Tree » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:43 pm

TSLA is the only individual stock I've ever owned. I bought it about 4 years ago when the Model S came out and I took a test drive. I was convinced it was the future and bought some stock (not a Model S, sadly). This is before I was a Boglehead and I've never bought another individual stock since. It was really just some play money, about a dozen shares and it's been marinating in my Roth IRA all this time, skyrocketing in value.

If I had it all to do over again, I would not have bought more TSLA or even AMZN or NFLX. I would have been smarter about savings and debt and started investing in VTSAX, VTIAX, and VBTLX earlier and more aggressively.

fposte
Posts: 1231
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:32 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by fposte » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:50 pm

Like all the people who were excited to get in on the ground floor of GTAT?

jcavana1
Posts: 48
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:21 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by jcavana1 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:59 pm

Looking back, I don't think the risk/reward for these stocks has ever been good enough for me to invest.

Obviously, I wish I had. But Tesla has still never made money. Their CEO came out recently saying the stock is overpriced. Amazon and Netflix make a tiny amount of profit relative to market cap.

In my opinion all three of these stocks are overpriced. That of course does not mean that they will not continue to soar. But that all could be related to market psychology and not actual value.

boglephreak
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:16 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by boglephreak » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:02 pm

why worry about what you are missing in the past? you are currently missing out on lots of good stocks! i'll let you know in a decade which ones.

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 13049
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Toons » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:05 pm

None whatsoever.
I spend No time thinking about what could have been.
If it was supposed to have been,
It would have happened.
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

User avatar
Raymond
Posts: 1301
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2012 6:04 am
Location: Texas

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Raymond » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:06 pm

bottlecap wrote:...As is the millions the people in the lunch room made on these stocks. If they really did so well, why are they still in the lunchroom and not scarfing down caviar on the links?...
"Oh, that. I just keep working, you know, so I can keep in touch with what the plebes, I mean, 'regular people', experience." :P

For the OP, nope, I don't feel I missed out on Amazon, Netflix or Tesla.

Some wise advice for buying the future ten-baggers:

Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it.

If it don't go up, don't buy it.


- Will Rogers
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"

KlangFool
Posts: 10675
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by KlangFool » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:10 pm

pascal wrote:Hi,

Some lunch room conversations at work indicated that some people seem to have made a killing in at least one of these companies. That got me thinking that the reason I didnt own any of these was because I owned the total stock market funds and wouldn't want to risk individual stocks. But these stock tickers meteoric rise in the past 4 years makes me feel that I missed the bus on these stocks :confused

Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?

I don't want to divert from the Boglehead philosophy but things do seem beguiling at times :twisted:
pascal,

I bought and sold NFLX and AMZN a few times long ago. I lost enough money doing that. That cured me of all those speculations.

KlangFool

bhsince87
Posts: 1898
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:08 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by bhsince87 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:25 pm

Yes and no. I bought 500 shares of Amazon when it was around $10 in the early 2000's. I sold it all when it was about $80 in 2007.

I was saving up cash to pay off my mortgage at the time. And I figured I couldn't complain about making $35,000 on the deal....

I sold about half my Apple stock in 2007 too. I made about 12X on it at the time. Thankfully I held on to some of that. It's up about 150X!!!

Oh well. You can do the math and figure out what that all would be worth today. But please don't tell me! :oops:

I had a similar experience with Cisco back in the 1990's, so I've learned to not worry about the "if only's".
Retirement: When you reach a point where you have enough. Or when you've had enough.

sfchris
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:41 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by sfchris » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:30 pm

I have seen people here suggest that the Boglehead philosphy allows for a small amount of "play money", to gamble on individual stocks. Just not very much. I would agree.

If you combine that with the "hold the stock forever" mentality, you could have a lot of fun as long as you stick to small amounts.

I bought 100 shares of Amazon in 1998 for $4000. Within 18 months it was less than $1000. I just forgot about it. I checked on it once in the 2000s and it was worth even less. And then I didn't check again until 2013 or so! Still have it. Totally dumb luck. :sharebeer:

User avatar
Earl Lemongrab
Posts: 5837
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2014 1:14 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:12 pm

Why are you worried? You apparently have a talent for picking out stocks with will do great and aren't that risky. So pick out the new batch and sink your money there.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

tesuzuki2002
Posts: 538
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:17 pm

Nope, Been directly invested in TSLA since the $120s AMZN under $300...

Glasgow
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2011 2:24 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Glasgow » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:23 pm

No. I don't. The only stock I'd own is BRK. Otherwise, keep contributing to S&P500 fund whether it's up or down. I've heard my co-workers talk about trading on TSLA, AAPL. etc, but I also heard they talk about their loss carryover for the last few years.

AuntEs
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:20 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by AuntEs » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:26 pm

I made a lot of money on FB, NVDA, and SHOP. I've also lost a lot on P, INVN, and FEYE. A friend of mine once told me (you've probably heard it before) "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered". IMO owning a little of the whole market is better than trying to hit the jackpot.

roflwaffle
Posts: 439
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:08 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by roflwaffle » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:51 pm

Yup on Tesla, although hindsight is really 20/20. I'm mostly disappointed in myself for being unreasonably risk averse, although that applies to more than just Tesla.

Jags4186
Posts: 2626
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:12 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Jags4186 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:34 pm

roflwaffle wrote:Yup on Tesla, although hindsight is really 20/20. I'm mostly disappointed in myself for being unreasonably risk averse, although that applies to more than just Tesla.
My first memory of Tesla is watching their POS roadster constantly break on Top Gear.

Think of how many boutique car companies are featured on that show. Most of their cars actually worked.

User avatar
Johnnie
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat May 28, 2016 3:18 pm
Location: Michigan

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Johnnie » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:13 pm

Tesla, are you kidding? It's a Potemkin car company that is but a minor political wind-shift away from total evaporation. An eliminated tax subsidy here, a bad report on safety or battery disposals or cup holders, etc., and someone hand Musk a robe because he has no clothes.

Don't believe me? Fine, but my story is at least as plausible as his, and that's the point - you gonna bet your retirement on that?

Here's what I really wanted to say though: Aren't the red-hot FANG, or "flirty thirty" or whatever stocks all ultra-mega caps that make up a small but noticeable percentage of the total market fund?
"I know nothing."

User avatar
TD2626
Posts: 637
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TD2626 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:19 pm

If you wanted to buy a low-risk retailer 5 or 10 years ago, you may have gone with Sears or Macys. Both are down 70-90%.

Stocks are risky. There is no way to get stock returns without stock risks. A concentrated portfolio doesn't reduce risk - it instead increases it.

You need to have enough stocks that one company bankruptcy won't impact you nuch. For most investors, this is best done through broadly diversified funds. Individual stocks in a portfolio are only acceptable if you own dozens of individual stocks in a buy and hold manner as a small component of an otherwise fund-focused portfolio, in my opinion. Short term speculation is not investing and should be counted as an expense (entertainment budget) instead of as an investment.

mhalley
Posts: 6310
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:02 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by mhalley » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:28 pm

The only reason Tsla is so successful is their range. Once the big boys come out with 200 plusmile range electrics with a reasonable price, they will go the way of the edsel. They might still exist as a battery company and sell their batteries to gm, but I just don't believe they will be able to compete.

User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 5284
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:39 pm

mhalley wrote:The only reason Tsla is so successful is their range.
OMG, that is what you think, the car goes 0-60 in 2.3 seconds. I am sure you can get a deal on a used Chevy Volt.
A Tesla Model S P100DL just recorded the fastest time ever for a production car to reach 60 mph: 2.28 seconds. That makes this $150,000 electric car faster than the Porsches 911 Turbo S, Lamborghini Aventador LP-750-4 SV, Nissan GT-R Track Pack, Audi R8 V10 Plus, Ferrari LaFerrari, McLaren P1, or Porsche 918 Spyder.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/244 ... d-0-60-mph
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

NibbanaBanana
Posts: 224
Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:34 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by NibbanaBanana » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:56 pm

jcavana1 wrote:Looking back, I don't think the risk/reward for these stocks has ever been good enough for me to invest.

Obviously, I wish I had. But Tesla has still never made money. Their CEO came out recently saying the stock is overpriced. Amazon and Netflix make a tiny amount of profit relative to market cap.

In my opinion all three of these stocks are overpriced. That of course does not mean that they will not continue to soar. But that all could be related to market psychology and not actual value.
This may not be a market bubble but it's starting to smell like one. I've lived through two market bubbles now. I remember back around the 2000 TMT bubble, PBS did a Frontline documentary called "Betting on the Market". They interviewed two old school Wall Street brokers. It was really funny. The one said "Yea, market bubbles come around every twenty years or so." The other said "That's how long it takes to raise another generation of suckers."

-Nibbana

brennok
Posts: 200
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by brennok » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:56 pm

Yes I feel I missed out. Only twice did I approach my father about buying stocks. Netflix and Google when they went public. I worked a video chain and saw the writing on the wall when Netflix launched.

I didn't have the money or I would have bought some. He easily could have but chose not to take my advice. I even tried to get him to give me a loan since he always said he would loan me the money to start my own business and came to him with a solid business plan.

harrychan
Posts: 1424
Joined: Sun Nov 14, 2010 9:37 pm
Location: Pasadena

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by harrychan » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:01 pm

My wife bought AMZN and FB early. Reaping some nice returns. I bought AAPL when it was $100. It dropped down to I think $60 (?) and when it went back to $100I sold :oops:
This is not legal or certified financial advice but you know that already.

hmw
Posts: 567
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:44 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by hmw » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:06 pm

My wife bought AMZN and TSLA in her Roth IRA, which is small part of our net worth. When she bought AMZN for about $180 a share several years ago, I told her that it was too expensive and the PE was too high. I said the same thing about TSLA when she bought at $220. I have lost all credibility. :oops:

forkhorn
Posts: 131
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 9:00 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by forkhorn » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:47 pm

A little. But back before I only bought index funds, I dabbled in individual stocks. Some went up, and so I felt like a deserving genius, and some went down, and so I felt unlucky. I'm pretty sure that is a classic cognitive bias of some sort.

Anyway, one of the ones I bought maybe 10-15 years ago was surely positioned for success in an exciting new industry. The company (Evergreen Solar) eventually went bankrupt, and the stock I bought was renamed some kind of post-bankrupt shares and traded for maybe .01/share. I never tried to clear it out of my account- I wanted it to serve as a reminder to me every time I logged in that my can't-miss idea might well lose every last penny I put into it. About 5 years ago I closed the account at that brokerage and the worthless stock didn't transfer. But looking at it all those years helped drive home the lesson, and now whenever I think thoughts such as the one you posed, I am reminded of that worthless stock staring me in the face, and it helps me be glad I don't gamble with individual tech stocks anymore. I suspect your friends have secretly had more Evergreen Solars than Teslas.

AlohaJoe
Posts: 3927
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:00 pm
Location: Saigon, Vietnam

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by AlohaJoe » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:11 pm

Dominos (the pizza place) has outperformed Amazon, Netflix, and Tesla. Do you feel like you missed out on Dominos?

User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 2340
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:26 pm

I didn't even realize that I had missed out :oops:

Thanks a lot for telling me :annoyed

One of the benefits of index investing is eliminating the burden of watching fluctuations of individual stocks. I have no idea of what is going up or down--other than the general market.

Karamatsu
Posts: 1338
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:42 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Karamatsu » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:08 am

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?
No. These things are never as safe or as sure in "real time" as they are in hindsight. Consider right now. What stock seems undervalued compared to your estimate of its potential today? Is it easy to see? I don't think so. For what it's worth, I bought AAPL in 1990 and sold it to buy index funds sometime in the mid 2000's, if I remember right. If I'd known what was going to happen, of course I wouldn't have done that, but I didn't know. Nobody did. Same deal with Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Google...

revert
Posts: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:35 pm

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by revert » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:03 am

Yes and no. I used to work for AMZN, and my initial stock grant was at <$180 valuation. Do I sometimes think about what would've happened if I had held? Sure. Do I regret selling on each vest? Not really - it's my system, and I don't like being overly exposed to the company that signs my paycheck.

Flashes1
Posts: 842
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 7:43 am

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Flashes1 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:27 am

I am disappointed particularly because of my job experience lending money to large retailers, I've personally seen the destruction Amazon has caused. Literally every single retailer has been negatively affected by them, so why didn't I buy AMZN?????? It just feels so obvious today. :annoyed

User avatar
BolderBoy
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2010 12:16 pm
Location: Colorado

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by BolderBoy » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:06 am

pascal wrote:Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.
Completely and utterly hindsight bias. Notice my second tagline below.

My father always fancied himself an excellent stock picker (he wasn't). For my 50th birthday, he gifted me $1500 worth of a fantastic-and-poised-to-rocket-to-the-heavens stock in a company called "KMart". Within a few years the stock was worthless.

... and you think you can pick 'em better? Why?
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post Reply