Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

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willthrill81
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by willthrill81 »

lack_ey wrote:
hoops777 wrote:Using the portfolio analyzer from 2002 to 2016 a combo of VBILX and SP500 65/35 beat Wellesley by a very small margin.Someone said VBILX did not exist until 2002 so I just went from there.
That's not what I see.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion3_2=100

What's up?
Right. Wellesley beat that portfolio by over 1% CAGR over that time period.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Miriam2 »

SeeMoe wrote:The Vanguard Equity Income fund is another excellent income fund.
From the Vanguard website on Vanguard Equity Income Fund VEIPX:
This fund is designed to provide investors with an above-average level of current income while offering exposure to the stock market. Since the fund typically invests in companies that are dedicated to consistently paying dividends, it may have a higher yield than other Vanguard stock mutual funds. The fund’s emphasis on slower-growing, higher-yielding companies can also mean that its total return may not be as strong in a significant bull market. This income-focused fund may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment goal and a tolerance for stock market volatility.
I'm not sure this would be a comparable fund to Wellesley for retirees, who want/need less volatility. The Equity Income fund uses dividends for income and appears to move up and down along with the S&P 500.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=0
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by willthrill81 »

Miriam2 wrote:
SeeMoe wrote: I'm not sure this would be a comparable fund to Wellesley for retirees, who want/need less volatility. The Equity Income fund uses dividends for income and appears to move up and down along with the S&P 500.
I agree.

From 1989 through 2016, the CAGR of VWINX was 8.99% and VEIPX was 10.05%, a decided edge for the latter.

However, that higher return came at the cost of far greater volatility. The standard deviation of VWINX was 6.25% but was 12.61% for VEIPX, roughly double. Further, the maximum drawdown of VWINX was just 15 months, while it was 50 months for VEIPX. That difference would make many retirees very uncomfortable, especially if they're counting on pulling 4% from their portfolio each year along the way.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Independent George »

Sandtrap wrote:Interesting.
If Wellesley in "taxable" is "intermediate tier of savings, what might you use for "top tier" or long term?
thank you
j
My retirement account is about 95% Vanguard Target Retirement 2050, 5% Vanguard REIT Index. I've been thinking about exchanging out of Target 2050 for Total Market/Total Bond because I think 2050 is too heavily into international, but that feels a little too much like micromanagement/chasing performance.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Sandtrap »

Independent George wrote:
Sandtrap wrote:Interesting.
If Wellesley in "taxable" is "intermediate tier of savings, what might you use for "top tier" or long term?
thank you
j
My retirement account is about 95% Vanguard Target Retirement 2050, 5% Vanguard REIT Index. I've been thinking about exchanging out of Target 2050 for Total Market/Total Bond because I think 2050 is too heavily into international, but that feels a little too much like micromanagement/chasing performance.
Thanks. This is helping me understand how funds relate.
So at present, Wellesley active in intermed, then Target Retirement active, top tier.
But considering switching to passive index for top tier perhaps for flexiblity of choosing allocation?
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Vegomatic »

A better proxy would be this, using VEIRX and VFICX.

VEIRX [VG Equity Income] is actively managed fund following the same benchmark that is used by Wellesley's equity sleeve, and VFICX [VG Intermediate Term Investment Grade] reflects corporate overweight (typical for Wellesley).

In backtest they are virtually indistinguishable. :wink:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=60

and if use VFIDX (Admiral share class) you are "spot on" (i.e., tied)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=60
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Dan999 »

So other than the expense ratio, why switch to Equity income at 40% and Bond funds at60%?
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by swyck »

DSInvestor wrote: Wellesley Income is not tax efficient so it is best held in tax advantaged accounts for those who are in higher tax brackets.
Can someone ELI5 this tax inefficiency? I hold Wellesley both in my retirement and taxed accounts.

I didn't see anything specific in the wiki, but it looked like it would be rated only moderately inefficient. Balanced bond and stock, but it is active. Not sure exactly where it falls.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

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swyck wrote:
DSInvestor wrote: Wellesley Income is not tax efficient so it is best held in tax advantaged accounts for those who are in higher tax brackets.
Can someone ELI5 this tax inefficiency? I hold Wellesley both in my retirement and taxed accounts.

I didn't see anything specific in the wiki, but it looked like it would be rated only moderately inefficient. Balanced bond and stock, but it is active. Not sure exactly where it falls.
It's because it creates significant dividends and interest payments, unlike an all-equity portfolio that has few dividends and most of the gains are not realized from year to year until you sell. Recently, more than a third of VWINX's gains are from dividends and interest.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by BrandonBogle »

swyck wrote:
DSInvestor wrote: Wellesley Income is not tax efficient so it is best held in tax advantaged accounts for those who are in higher tax brackets.
Can someone ELI5 this tax inefficiency? I hold Wellesley both in my retirement and taxed accounts.

I didn't see anything specific in the wiki, but it looked like it would be rated only moderately inefficient. Balanced bond and stock, but it is active. Not sure exactly where it falls.
On first glance, to me it would simply be about using a unified fund. Let's say for the sake of argument that you hold $100k of Wellesley in retirement accounts and $100k of Wellesley in taxable. About $66k of taxable bonds at ordinary rates are spitting out dividends in the taxable account.

However, if you broke it down to two separate funds, you would have about $132k in bonds and $68k in stocks. You could have all $100k of your retirement account be in bonds and only have about $32k of bonds spitting out ordinary rate dividends in the taxable account, about half of the tax exposure you had before. Or, you could even consider (with the inherent risk decisions etc.) using a muni fund for that $32k and being fed ordinary tax free.
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Balanced fund problems

Post by Taylor Larimore »

I hold Wellesley both in my retirement and taxed accounts.
swyck:

A problem with balanced funds (holding both stocks & bonds) is that either the stocks or the bonds may be in the wrong type account.

Another problem is that asset allocation is fixed in balanced funds. Most of us change our desired stock/bond allocation as we age.

Best wishes.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by btenny »

Taylor. Have you really changed you asset allocation much between 70-90? Are you still reducing your stocks holdings as you get older?

I am 70 now and at 38/62 AA and not planning to change my AA much. If anything I may actually increase my stock holdings for benefit of my kids as I get much older.

Good Luck.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by btenny »

Taylor. Have you really changed you asset allocation much between 70-90? Are you still reducing your stocks holdings as you get older?

I am 70 now and at 38/62 AA and not planning to change my AA much. If anything I may actually increase my stock holdings for benefit of my kids as I get much older.

Good Luck.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by SeeMoe »

willthrill81 wrote:
Miriam2 wrote:
SeeMoe wrote: I'm not sure this would be a comparable fund to Wellesley for retirees, who want/need less volatility. The Equity Income fund uses dividends for income and appears to move up and down along with the S&P 500.
I agree.

From 1989 through 2016, the CAGR of VWINX was 8.99% and VEIPX was 10.05%, a decided edge for the latter.

However, that higher return came at the cost of far greater volatility. The standard deviation of VWINX was 6.25% but was 12.61% for VEIPX, roughly double. Further, the maximum drawdown of VWINX was just 15 months, while it was 50 months for VEIPX. That difference would make many retirees very uncomfortable, especially if they're counting on pulling 4% from their portfolio each year along the way.
Thanks for the information. I did well over the years with Equity Income in my T-IRA account. Then was advised to go all bond funds now that RMD's have started. Feel ok with the all bond folio now.

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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

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SeeMoe wrote:Thanks for the information. I did well over the years with Equity Income in my T-IRA account. Then was advised to go all bond funds now that RMD's have started. Feel ok with the all bond folio now.

SeeMoe.. :beer
Out of curiosity, why 100% bonds? You must be well ahead of the game if you can afford to be completely out of equities.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

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Miriam2 wrote:
SeeMoe wrote:The Vanguard Equity Income fund is another excellent income fund.
From the Vanguard website on Vanguard Equity Income Fund VEIPX:
This fund is designed to provide investors with an above-average level of current income while offering exposure to the stock market. Since the fund typically invests in companies that are dedicated to consistently paying dividends, it may have a higher yield than other Vanguard stock mutual funds. The fund’s emphasis on slower-growing, higher-yielding companies can also mean that its total return may not be as strong in a significant bull market. This income-focused fund may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment goal and a tolerance for stock market volatility.
I'm not sure this would be a comparable fund to Wellesley for retirees, who want/need less volatility. The Equity Income fund uses dividends for income and appears to move up and down along with the S&P 500.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=0
Agree. I was advised to exchange my long held Equity Income fund for all bonds in my T-IRA account when the RMD's started. Overall folios are now 40/60 .

SeeMoe.. :beer
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

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willthrill81 wrote:
SeeMoe wrote:Thanks for the information. I did well over the years with Equity Income in my T-IRA account. Then was advised to go all bond funds now that RMD's have started. Feel ok with the all bond folio now.

SeeMoe.. :beer
Out of curiosity, why 100% bonds? You must be well ahead of the game if you can afford to be completely out of equities.
Just our T-IRA accounts are 100% bond funds now. Overall folio is 40/60. The taxable joint account has 5 stock funds, 3 municipal laddered bond funds and a Prime MM for liquidity between funds, fund folios, bank.

SeeMoe.. :mrgreen:
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Sheepdog »

btenny wrote:Have you really changed you asset allocation much between 70-90? Are you still reducing your stocks holdings as you get older?
You asked Taylor this question, but I thought I would answer it for me as a person who has used Wellesley considerably after age 70 and reduced his stock allocation annually to a certain point.
At 69 (2002) I was heading toward a stock allocation of 100 minus my age. I was at 50% stock in 2001. By mid 2002 I was down to 30%. I did reduce the stock allocation every year until at age 77 (2010) I was at 22% stock where I decided to remain. Now at age 83 and counting, that conservative allocation has worked well for me providing an average of 4.59% average withdrawal and with investment growth (nominal). By 2010 the stocks in that 22% were all in Target 2010 and Wellesley which later morphed to Target Income and Wellesley, and later more Wellesley than Target Income. By the way, all of those are in tIRAs and Roth IRAs only. I am comfortable with that. Yeah, I know the arguments against that, but I am not changing what has been a good decision for my in-retirement income needs.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Taylor Larimore »

btenny wrote:Taylor. Have you really changed you asset allocation much between 70-90? Are you still reducing your stocks holdings as you get older?

I am 70 now and at 38/62 AA and not planning to change my AA much. If anything I may actually increase my stock holdings for benefit of my kids as I get much older.

Good Luck.
btenny:

My wife of 62 years died 4 years ago and at age 93 I know my days are numbered. Accordingly, I have been giving away my assets to my heirs and charity while I am still alive which makes them happy (me too).

With luck, my last check will go to the undertaker who takes my corpse to the University of Miami for medical research.

I hold 35% Vanguard Total Bond Market in my IRA, plus the S&P 500 Index and the Tax-Managed Small-Cap funds in my taxable account -- three easily maintained funds for my caregivers and heirs to manage when the time comes.

Note: I would prefer a smaller allocation to stocks (all in a taxable account), but selling stocks will trigger a large capital-gain tax which will be eliminated at death.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by friar1610 »

SeeMoe wrote:
willthrill81 wrote:
SeeMoe wrote:Thanks for the information. I did well over the years with Equity Income in my T-IRA account. Then was advised to go all bond funds now that RMD's have started. Feel ok with the all bond folio now.

SeeMoe.. :beer
Out of curiosity, why 100% bonds? You must be well ahead of the game if you can afford to be completely out of equities.
Just our T-IRA accounts are 100% bond funds now. Overall folio is 40/60. The taxable joint account has 5 stock funds, 3 municipal laddered bond funds and a Prime MM for liquidity between funds, fund folios, bank.

SeeMoe.. :mrgreen:
SeeMoe,

I find it interesting what you said about 100% bonds in your IRAs. For years my wife and I kept 100% Total Bond in our relatively modest IRAs (roughly 25-30% of total port.) When I started RMDs in 2016 (my wife starts this year) I started wondering if the IRAs should be a bit more aggressive to help them last longer now that we're RMD'ing. I looked at converting them to one of the more conservative balanced funds (LS Income or TR Income) but this would have thrown our overall AA too far out of whack on the equity/international side. So I converted 1/3 of the IRAs to Wellesley Income with the thought that I might some day kick that to 50%.) But that latter move might also give us too high a percentage of equities overall - we'll see what develops.

Are you confident that 100% IRA bond allocation will permit sustainable RMDs well into the future? Or would you just as soon draw them down sooner rather than later?

Our overall AA is quite similar to yours: 40-45% equities/51-56 fixed/4% cash. Ages 71/70.

Thanks for any insights you may have.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by SeeMoe »

friar1610 wrote:
SeeMoe wrote:
willthrill81 wrote:
SeeMoe wrote:Thanks for the information. I did well over the years with Equity Income in my T-IRA account. Then was advised to go all bond funds now that RMD's have started. Feel ok with the all bond folio now.

SeeMoe.. :beer
Out of curiosity, why 100% bonds? You must be well ahead of the game if you can afford to be completely out of equities.
Just our T-IRA accounts are 100% bond funds now. Overall folio is 40/60. The taxable joint account has 5 stock funds, 3 municipal laddered bond funds and a Prime MM for liquidity between funds, fund folios, bank.
C
SeeMoe.. :mrgreen:
SeeMoe,









I find it interesting what you said about 100% bonds in your IRAs. For years my wife and I kept 100% Total Bond in our relatively modest IRAs (roughly 25-30% of total port.) When I started RMDs in 2016 (my wife starts this year) I started wondering if the IRAs should be a bit more aggressive to help them last longer now that we're RMD'ing. I looked at converting them to one of the more conservative balanced funds (LS Income or TR Income) but this would have thrown our overall AA too far out of whack on the equity/international side. So I converted 1/3 of the IRAs to Wellesley Income with the thought that I might some day kick that to 50%.) But that latter move might also give us too high a percentage of equities overall - we'll see what develops.

Are you confident that 100% IRA bond allocation will permit sustainable RMDs well into the future? Or would you just as soon draw them down sooner rather than later?

Our overall AA is quite similar to yours: 40-45% equities/51-56 fixed/4% cash. Ages 71/70.

Thanks for any insights you may have.
Hello Friar. We are mid 70's, and a CFP assured us 100% bonds in the T-IRA's was the right way to go long term. Ok so far, but I hated to let the Equity Income fund go as it was about 50% of the folios. Now we are about 40% total bond index, 25% intermediate investment grade bond, 15% short term investment grade bond, 10% high yield and about 10% total international bond index. Get the RMD's end of the year and invested them in the Limited , intermediate and Pennsylvania L.T. tax exempt bond funds. Otherwise some would have gone to the one stock fund (of 5) which is the exceptional Tax Managed Capital Appreciation fund! Plus we invest some of our pension monies in those funds during the year if no big, unexpected expenses occur. When we are 80, the AA will be about 35/65. We are in a nice CCRC with no cares per se, with a few weeks coming up in S.W. Florida.

SeeMoe.. :dollar
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by friar1610 »

See Moe,

Thank you.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by RetireBy55 »

Wellesley is our largest holding, and we've always thought of it as the "anchor" of our portfolio.

YTD it's in the bottom 1% of all funds in it's category, though, and is underperforming it's category by 2.1% over the last year. It's 3, 5, and 10 year quintile rankings are impressive but over the last year it's definitely languished compared to others in the category - even though it returned a very solid 8.16 percent in 2016. I guess that's the trade-off for lower StDev and volatility than the others..

I noticed this AM that two of the fund managers appear to be new - starting on 1/1/17. The lead FI and equity managers have been on board since 2008 and 2007, but I'm wondering how they are sharing responsibility with the new managers - if these two new people are secondary and being groomed to pickup lead roles later on or if they are making key investment decisions.

Always makes me a bit nervous when I see new managers coming in to a fund..

I've always planned on holding Wellesley "forever" and it'll probably be in our will, but bottom 1% performance (albeit for a very short time period) always catches my attention also..guess the ~65% bonds in a raising rate environment that even out performance over the long run can hold the fund back during equity rallies..

Still a huge fan but when it's your largest holding, a bottom 1% ranking even short term is noticeable..
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Kevin K »

Getting back to the OP's observation about Wellesley's phenomenal track record over the decades, I'll share this response to a similar question I asked about the fund on another forum last year. IMHO it does the best job I've seen of speaking to why Wellesley has outperformed not only other conservative allocations but also much more aggressive ones:

"I'm suspect I've said this before, but I think Wellesley's consistent risk adjusted outperformance (Alpha) has as much to do with their bond picks as stock picking.

The bond market is bigger than the stock market, it trades less frequently, and bid ask is wider on the corporate bonds than stocks or government bonds. I think this makes it the perfect market for active management.

Looking at the big pictures, if I have a portfolio and I'm looking to generate income, I can loan money to a government or corporation and collect interest, or I can take an equity position and generally collect dividends.

Most people decide on AA between stocks and bonds and stick it in index funds. A fair number cheat a bit and decide to allocate more to international, or small caps, or value. I think it's not unusual for bond traders who are able to beat the average (It's how Michael Lewis made his early money).

In contrast, Wellesley is constantly looking at both stocks and bonds and deciding what is the best way to get income from a corporation, buy bonds or buy stocks. I'm a pretty sophisticated investor, but I'm pretty clueless on how to determine I'm a better of buying Wells Fargo stock with 3.1% yield or Wells Fargo 2025 bond with the same yield. I suspect that most firms and fund managers that only buy bonds or only buy stocks aren't be that much smarter.

So moving forward, I think Wellesley will continue to provide Alpha because their balanced approached to stocks and bonds is pretty unique and not easily replicated."

Wellesley's "weaknesses" (relatively small number of holdings, U.S.-centric, concentrated exposure to specific bond and stock sectors) are often cited by Three Fund and/or complicated, tilted slice-and-dice allocation adherents, many of whom have experienced CAGR's that are half of Wellesley's with far scarier drawdowns during market crashes. For retirees especially I find it hard to see why having close to half of one's nest egg (at a minimum) invested in Admiral shares of this fund would be a bad idea. I for one have certainly done worse!
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by pierremonfrere »

If held in a taxable, how would the tax (in)efficiency of Wellesley compare that of say 50/50 or 40/60 TSM/TBM?
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by willthrill81 »

pierremonfrere wrote:If held in a taxable, how would the tax (in)efficiency of Wellesley compare that of say 50/50 or 40/60 TSM/TBM?
They are going to all be very comparable. Unless they are municipal, bonds are seldom tax efficient.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by friar1610 »

pierremonfrere wrote:If held in a taxable, how would the tax (in)efficiency of Wellesley compare that of say 50/50 or 40/60 TSM/TBM?
This is just my gut reaction to your question, not based on any scientific analysis...

I would think TSM would be more tax efficient in a taxable account account than the stock portion of Wellesley. I base that on the fact that TSM is not seeking to generate dividends whereas that is an express objective of Wellesley with its value/dividend orientation. Although TSM certainly contains dividend payers, it doesn't really care if it does or not since what it's trying to replicate is the total market.

I would think TBM and the bond portion of Wellesley would pretty much be a wash unless you live in a state that taxes such bond interest income. In that case, I would think TBM would have a slight edge because of the higher percentage of Federally-generated income that would be exempt from state income tax.

Others may have a more nuanced understanding of this question, but that's my answer and I'm sticking' to it.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by listedguru »

willthrill81 wrote:I've recently become somewhat enamored with VWINX, Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund. It's a balanced fund that tries to maintain a 60% bond and 40% stock mix, but despite its decided bond tilt, it's historic and relatively recent returns have been, in my view, astounding.

From the fund's inception in 1970 to the end of 2016, it's total return is 9.85%. By comparison, the S&P 500's return over the same period was 10.28%, a difference of just .46% (and its' even lower than that when you account for the expense ratio of an S&P 500 fund). While it's just one period, I find it very interesting that from 1/29/2000 until today, $10,000 invested in VWINX would now be valued at $34,422, while VFIAX, Vanguard's S&P 500 500 index fund, would be valued at $23,375.

But if the returns are lower than those of the S&P 500 over the last nearly 50 years, what's the big deal? Wellesley's volatility over that same period was far lower than the S&P 500. The standard deviation for VWINX over the last 15 years is 5.89, whereas its 14.35 for VFIAX.

In its 47 year history (inception in 1970), VWINX has only had six years with losses, all under 10%, and only two were above 5%. The S&P 500 had 11 years with losses over the same period, the largest being 38.5% in 2008. In that same year, VWINX lost 9.84%; the following year was its record high gain of 16.02%.

On the bond side, it's average effective duration is 6.7 years, it only uses investment grade bonds. On the stock side, it leans toward value and 'giant' firms with a median market cap of $108 billion currently.

If the fund has weaknesses, one of them is its low international exposure. Only 6.73% of its current stock allocation is international. Another is likely its rather concentrated stock portfolio; it owns just 60. Further, one could easily argue that bonds are unlikely to perform as well going forward in a period of rising rates, but this fund has gone through many such periods in its 47 year history and has still delivered well.

The expenses of the fund are very low, just .15% for Admiral shares. It's current yield is 2.91%, which seems very solid to me for those looking for cash flow.

So it appears that for investors who have a weak stomach for volatility (which is probably the majority of 'investors' given that they tend to sell when stocks tank) but still want to capture 95+% (historically of course) of the S&P 500's returns, this may be a great fund for them. This seems like an ideal fund for many retirees as well. I definitely will be recommending this fund to my father who will be retiring at age 70 in just a few years. Like many, the market's gains allure him, but he gets very jittery with substantial losses. This fund looks like a great fit for him. It's unlikely to have 'home run' years, but it seems unlikely to tank either.

What are you thoughts about this fund?
I too have been enamored with Wellesley for quite sometime although I have yet to dip my toe into the water. My situation is somewhat different. I inherited a pile of money upon the untimely passing of my father in the summer of 2015. Since that time I have yet to do anything with this money as it's just sitting in cash in an inherited IRA and a taxable acct. My research has kept pointing to putting this money into Wellesley and calling it a day.

I reached out here on bogleheads asking for advice for my situation and many mentioned using a simple (3) fund portfolio, etc. I just keep coming back to Wellesley. I think simplicity has something to do with it as I really don't want to rebalance, etc. I know the Vanguard Conservative Fund is also 40/60 but it's returns have been less than stellar compared to Wellesley IMHO.

Anyway I'm still figuring out whether do dip my toe into the water so to speak but I'm just scared of losing this inheritance. With the market seemingly priced for perfection and a next occupant in the White House the future looks a little cloudy to me (LOL). I'll be turning 41 here in a few days and won't need this money for at least another 20+ years. My house is paid for and I'm debt free.

What to do, what to do?

-Guru
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by willthrill81 »

listedguru wrote:I too have been enamored with Wellesley for quite sometime although I have yet to dip my toe into the water. My situation is somewhat different. I inherited a pile of money upon the untimely passing of my father in the summer of 2015. Since that time I have yet to do anything with this money as it's just sitting in cash in an inherited IRA and a taxable acct. My research has kept pointing to putting this money into Wellesley and calling it a day.

I reached out here on bogleheads asking for advice for my situation and many mentioned using a simple (3) fund portfolio, etc. I just keep coming back to Wellesley. I think simplicity has something to do with it as I really don't want to rebalance, etc. I know the Vanguard Conservative Fund is also 40/60 but it's returns have been less than stellar compared to Wellesley IMHO.

Anyway I'm still figuring out whether do dip my toe into the water so to speak but I'm just scared of losing this inheritance. With the market seemingly priced for perfection and a next occupant in the White House the future looks a little cloudy to me (LOL). I'll be turning 41 here in a few days and won't need this money for at least another 20+ years. My house is paid for and I'm debt free.

What to do, what to do?

-Guru
It depends on your risk tolerance. Considering that you are apparently far from retirement, I'm not sure whether a 60% bond fund makes the best sense. But if you are really afraid of losses, VWINX may be a great choice for you. No one knows the future, but considering that VWINX has only had one year in its 47 year history where it lost more than 5% in one year, combined with only having consecutive losses in two years, it's about as limited in volatility as you'll find for fund with its AA. And when you take into account that it's only trailed the S&P 500 by around .4% annually during that time, you may understand why I say that it's incredible. Since 2000, it is far ahead of the S&P 500. No one knows what will happen going forward, but the past seems to be an excellent guide to me.

Perhaps you might put the bulk of the money into VWINX and then allocate much smaller amounts to more volatile asset classes that have historically yielded higher returns, such as small cap value. Some international exposure would be recommended by most as well.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Miriam2 »

listedguru wrote:I know the Vanguard Conservative Fund is also 40/60 but it's returns have been less than stellar compared to Wellesley IMHO.
Two reasons for this difference may be -

1 - Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth is composed of 4 funds: Vg Total Stock 23.7%, Vg Total Bond II 42.6%, and Vg Total International Stock 16% and Vg Total International Bond 17.7%. Wellesley has no significant international stock or bond component (looks like only 5.6% of equities & no int'l bonds). So the international component may be dragging down LS Conservative Growth for now.

2 - When you calculate the difference in returns between LS Conservative Growth and Wellesley, it would depend on how far back your frame of reference is because the LifeStrategy funds all had a different composition until 2011 when Vanguard eliminated the Asset Allocation fund (thank goodness) from the LS funds, as well as the Vg Short-Term Investment Grade fund, and added instead the Total International Stock fund and later the Total International Bond fund. So going back too far to compare LS Conservative Growth with Wellesley wouldn't be accurate for today's LS fund.

www.reuters.com/article/us-vanguard-fun ... GC20110930 - Vanguard Shuts Down Fund
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by listedguru »

willthrill81 wrote:
listedguru wrote:I too have been enamored with Wellesley for quite sometime although I have yet to dip my toe into the water. My situation is somewhat different. I inherited a pile of money upon the untimely passing of my father in the summer of 2015. Since that time I have yet to do anything with this money as it's just sitting in cash in an inherited IRA and a taxable acct. My research has kept pointing to putting this money into Wellesley and calling it a day.

I reached out here on bogleheads asking for advice for my situation and many mentioned using a simple (3) fund portfolio, etc. I just keep coming back to Wellesley. I think simplicity has something to do with it as I really don't want to rebalance, etc. I know the Vanguard Conservative Fund is also 40/60 but it's returns have been less than stellar compared to Wellesley IMHO.

Anyway I'm still figuring out whether do dip my toe into the water so to speak but I'm just scared of losing this inheritance. With the market seemingly priced for perfection and a next occupant in the White House the future looks a little cloudy to me (LOL). I'll be turning 41 here in a few days and won't need this money for at least another 20+ years. My house is paid for and I'm debt free.

What to do, what to do?

-Guru
It depends on your risk tolerance. Considering that you are apparently far from retirement, I'm not sure whether a 60% bond fund makes the best sense. But if you are really afraid of losses, VWINX may be a great choice for you. No one knows the future, but considering that VWINX has only had one year in its 47 year history where it lost more than 5% in one year, combined with only having consecutive losses in two years, it's about as limited in volatility as you'll find for fund with its AA. And when you take into account that it's only trailed the S&P 500 by around .4% annually during that time, you may understand why I say that it's incredible. Since 2000, it is far ahead of the S&P 500. No one knows what will happen going forward, but the past seems to be an excellent guide to me.

Perhaps you might put the bulk of the money into VWINX and then allocate much smaller amounts to more volatile asset classes that have historically yielded higher returns, such as small cap value. Some international exposure would be recommended by most as well.
Being that a sizable chunk of this inheritance is in an Inherited IRA (that I can't add to; required to take RMD's now) I think a fund such as Wellesley seems logical to me. I would hope that over the next 20 or 25 years the balance would continue to grow even with taking my required RMD's. The other chunk of money is in a taxable acct so Wellesley probably wouldn't be suitable for that because of it's tax inefficiency.

Again I really like the idea of something that I don't need to rebalance, etc and can just let it be:)
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by cinghiale »

Post #1000! Hoo-rah!!

listedguru, Wellesley is an excellent choice for someone who wants to get in the market, but fears a loss of capital. As has already been mentioned, it has had only a handful of losing years since 1970, and the losing years have been light-to-moderate.

I'm a long-term and vocal Wellesley-phile. But, that said, I do not think this is an all-eggs-in-one-basket fund. Put half of your account, at most, into Wellesley Income. Plan to hold it over the long term. Then balance it out with one or more other Vanguard choices. Consider getting some international stock exposure into your tax advantaged account.

The problem with many of the discussions about Wellesley Income is the "all or nothing at all" quality of them. It's a splendid fund, but I'm of the opinion that it need not be a stand-alone one.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

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cinghiale wrote:Post #1000! Hoo-rah!!

listedguru, Wellesley is an excellent choice for someone who wants to get in the market, but fears a loss of capital. As has already been mentioned, it has had only a handful of losing years since 1970, and the losing years have been light-to-moderate.

I'm a long-term and vocal Wellesley-phile. But, that said, I do not think this is an all-eggs-in-one-basket fund. Put half of your account, at most, into Wellesley Income. Plan to hold it over the long term. Then balance it out with one or more other Vanguard choices. Consider getting some international stock exposure into your tax advantaged account.

The problem with many of the discussions about Wellesley Income is the "all or nothing at all" quality of them. It's a splendid fund, but I'm of the opinion that it need not be a stand-alone one.
For the most part, I agree. One could certainly do far worse than going 100% VWINX, but there are other asset classes that are likely to be beneficial in one's portfolio as well, especially over the long-term. Small cap, small cap value, and international all come to mind.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by friar1610 »

willthrill81 wrote:
cinghiale wrote:Post #1000! Hoo-rah!!

listedguru, Wellesley is an excellent choice for someone who wants to get in the market, but fears a loss of capital. As has already been mentioned, it has had only a handful of losing years since 1970, and the losing years have been light-to-moderate.

I'm a long-term and vocal Wellesley-phile. But, that said, I do not think this is an all-eggs-in-one-basket fund. Put half of your account, at most, into Wellesley Income. Plan to hold it over the long term. Then balance it out with one or more other Vanguard choices. Consider getting some international stock exposure into your tax advantaged account.

The problem with many of the discussions about Wellesley Income is the "all or nothing at all" quality of them. It's a splendid fund, but I'm of the opinion that it need not be a stand-alone one.
For the most part, I agree. One could certainly do far worse than going 100% VWINX, but there are other asset classes that are likely to be beneficial in one's portfolio as well, especially over the long-term. Small cap, small cap value, and international all come to mind.
Or, in the case where an investor has followed the "stocks in taxable; bonds in tax-deferred" rule, I see a role for a mix of Wellesley and a general purpose bond fund in a 50-50 ratio. In our case we have relatively modest IRAs owing to a relatively short work career (her) and a predominantly military career in which 401Ks/403Bs were not available (me). When they did become available we used them mainly for bond funds as we were getting to the stage in life where we needed to moderate our equity-heavy AA a bit. The result is that until recently the Rollover IRAs contained only TBM. I've converted 1/3 of that to Wellesley with a view toward upping it to a max of 50% in due course. Hopefully that will make the IRAs sustainable longer now that we're in the RMD zone.

As an side note, I back tested a 50-50 mix of W and TBM vs W and Int Term Treasury and the latter came out slightly ahead. My thinking was that with all the corporates in W, it might be good to go with a more conservative bond fund as the other half of the IRA allocation. Haven't made any change yet, but I may.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by willthrill81 »

friar1610 wrote:Or, in the case where an investor has followed the "stocks in taxable; bonds in tax-deferred" rule, I see a role for a mix of Wellesley and a general purpose bond fund in a 50-50 ratio.
That would leave your portfolio 20% stocks and 80% bonds as Wellesley is 60% bonds already, a very conservative portfolio. My guess is that would be most appropriate for those who already have a far more than adequate nest egg not needing much growth, along with a low tolerance for volatility.

I personally doubt that I'll ever go below 50/50 with my entire portfolio, maybe even 60/40. But that's just me. The Larry Portfolio looks interesting for those who have 'enough'.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by friar1610 »

willthrill81 wrote:
friar1610 wrote:Or, in the case where an investor has followed the "stocks in taxable; bonds in tax-deferred" rule, I see a role for a mix of Wellesley and a general purpose bond fund in a 50-50 ratio.
That would leave your portfolio 20% stocks and 80% bonds as Wellesley is 60% bonds already, a very conservative portfolio. My guess is that would be most appropriate for those who already have a far more than adequate nest egg not needing much growth, along with a low tolerance for volatility.

I personally doubt that I'll ever go below 50/50 with my entire portfolio, maybe even 60/40. But that's just me. The Larry Portfolio looks interesting for those who have 'enough'.

No, it would leave my IRAs 20% stocks. My portfolio,while not super-aggressive, would be about 50% equity if I made the move to 50% Wellesley in the IRAs. Just right for us @ 71/70 with an excellent pension, SS x 2.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by willthrill81 »

friar1610 wrote:
willthrill81 wrote:
friar1610 wrote:Or, in the case where an investor has followed the "stocks in taxable; bonds in tax-deferred" rule, I see a role for a mix of Wellesley and a general purpose bond fund in a 50-50 ratio.
That would leave your portfolio 20% stocks and 80% bonds as Wellesley is 60% bonds already, a very conservative portfolio. My guess is that would be most appropriate for those who already have a far more than adequate nest egg not needing much growth, along with a low tolerance for volatility.

I personally doubt that I'll ever go below 50/50 with my entire portfolio, maybe even 60/40. But that's just me. The Larry Portfolio looks interesting for those who have 'enough'.

No, it would leave my IRAs 20% stocks. My portfolio,while not super-aggressive, would be about 50% equity if I made the move to 50% Wellesley in the IRAs. Just right for us @ 71/70 with an excellent pension, SS x 2.
Nice! :D
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by learning_head »

There is no reason to pick this fund for any new money over a LifeStrategy fund IMO. If you don't like international allocation of LifeStrategy funds, pick your own with individual index funds.

If you think it's superior, I did not get why. OP mentioned its superior returns but did not compare it to the right benchmark. Even if it did have superior returns compared the right benchmark, is that because you like specific manager of the fund? Or because you believe it has some magic sauce that other funds don't have *and* you believe this magic sauce will last into the future? Why not invest in some other benchmark-beating active funds then?

When I had asked similar question in the past, responses I got from some of the founders of this board is that the only reason they have these actively managed funds in their own portfolios are historical and due to low cost basis that would trigger high capital gains; and they would not put more money into it.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Happy2BeFree »

I love my Wellesley. I tracked it for several years before I rolled my 401(k) into it at VG. It's a slow, steady performer and the right AA for me in semi-retirement. It's about 12% of my portfolio right now, with index and other funds and CDs rounding things out. Allover AA is 40/60.

I like the steady "active-light" approach for a tiny 15 bp. I'm not an index purist, so Wellesley's solid long-term management for me is a selling point. Another plus: internal rebalancing. I don't always have the guts to rebalance myself, so I leave it to the managers. And balanced funds hide volatility well.

I don't think it has a secret sauce, but I do think it does its job incredibly well. Another poster wrote about the unique way managers handle the fund. The fact that it nearly matched S&P returns for that many years with only 35-40% stocks is remarkable. And some people don't want to slice components into parts if we have a perfectly good fund that does the work for us.

For me, LifeStrategy funds have too much international and keep changing their mix, and I already own enough index funds in taxable. Wellesley is a great addition to my portfolio, and I'll be adding to it over time.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by dbr »

Happy2BeFree wrote:I love my Wellesley. I tracked it for several years before I rolled my 401(k) into it at VG. It's a slow, steady performer and the right AA for me in semi-retirement. It's about 12% of my portfolio right now, with index and other funds and CDs rounding things out. Allover AA is 40/60.
I don't understand why a fund this good would only be 12% of your portfolio.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by learning_head »

Happy2BeFree wrote:I like the steady "active-light" approach for a tiny 15 bp. I'm not an index purist, so Wellesley's solid long-term management for me is a selling point. Another plus: internal rebalancing. I don't always have the guts to rebalance myself, so I leave it to the managers. And balanced funds hide volatility well.

I don't think it has a secret sauce, but I do think it does its job incredibly well. Another poster wrote about the unique way managers handle the fund. The fact that it nearly matched S&P returns for that many years with only 35-40% stocks is remarkable. And some people don't want to slice components into parts if we have a perfectly good fund that does the work for us.
All the same arguments apply to any actively managed fund or hedge fund that has outperformed their benchmarks over many years, after fees.

How do you decide when to leave such a fund? How long will it need to underperform a truly comparable benchmark before you leave it if ever?

Or since you believe in management of this fund doing such an amazing job, do you keep close tabs on who the managers are, what's happening in their lives in case they have undue stress or overcommitments to new projects, and whether you plan to get out of this fund as soon as its main managers leave? Or do you believe any newcoming managers will be trained on the job well enough for you not to worry about this?

Would you be able to name these great managers and roughly how long they have been managing this fund without looking it up now?

Is there any reason you would ever leave this fund?

P.S. Could it be that it matched S&P returns for that many years with 35-40% in stocks only because S&P is not a comparable benchmark? As others pointed out, bonds had a nice run over last many years and in fact outperformed S&P for the first time ever over a very long period of time. So comparing a balanced fund to S&P was helped by that first-time-ever-such-a-long-bond-bull-market. What do you think will happen in bond bear market?
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Happy2BeFree »

dbr wrote:
Happy2BeFree wrote:I love my Wellesley. I tracked it for several years before I rolled my 401(k) into it at VG. It's a slow, steady performer and the right AA for me in semi-retirement. It's about 12% of my portfolio right now, with index and other funds and CDs rounding things out. Allover AA is 40/60.
I don't understand why a fund this good would only be 12% of your portfolio.
A good portion of my portfolio is in taxable and other vehicles where Wellesley isn't available. But I'll keep adding to it as I can in my IRAs. No fund is perfect, but this one works well for me and I've been very happy with it.

[Edited for clarity.]
Last edited by Happy2BeFree on Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by goingup »

This Wellesley love is surprising. It has always been a stodgy conservative fund reserved for investors in the autumn of their years.

Young investors will not love this fund for long. It's most often used as a core-holding for retirees. Owning Wellesley is like wearing your dad's brown sweater and driving his old Buick. Bad fit if you're under 60.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Happy2BeFree »

goingup wrote:This Wellesley love is surprising. It has always been a stodgy conservative fund reserved for investors in the autumn of their years.

Young investors will not love this fund for long. It's most often used as a core-holding for retirees. Owning Wellesley is like wearing your dad's brown sweater and driving his old Buick. Bad fit if you're under 60.
I'm in my mid-50s and in conservation mode. More than age, I think it depends on your financial situation and what you want your money to do for you.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by BogleLearner »

I also have the Wellesley Fund in my IRA, and I am impressed with it.
I know that past performance is not an indicator of future
performance, and that funds can change. That is why
funds should be consistently checked. With these
volatile times, I feel more comfortable having this
fund in my overall portfolio.
As an investor who does not have a financial background
academically, I am grateful for Vanguard funds such as the
Wellesley Fund, and for Vanguard Index Funds (in my taxable portfolio).
Happy2BeFree

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Happy2BeFree »

learning_head wrote:
Happy2BeFree wrote:I like the steady "active-light" approach for a tiny 15 bp. I'm not an index purist, so Wellesley's solid long-term management for me is a selling point. Another plus: internal rebalancing. I don't always have the guts to rebalance myself, so I leave it to the managers. And balanced funds hide volatility well.

I don't think it has a secret sauce, but I do think it does its job incredibly well. Another poster wrote about the unique way managers handle the fund. The fact that it nearly matched S&P returns for that many years with only 35-40% stocks is remarkable. And some people don't want to slice components into parts if we have a perfectly good fund that does the work for us.
All the same arguments apply to any actively managed fund or hedge fund that has outperformed their benchmarks over many years, after fees.

How do you decide when to leave such a fund? How long will it need to underperform a truly comparable benchmark before you leave it if ever?

Or since you believe in management of this fund doing such an amazing job, do you keep close tabs on who the managers are, what's happening in their lives in case they have undue stress or overcommitments to new projects, and whether you plan to get out of this fund as soon as its main managers leave? Or do you believe any newcoming managers will be trained on the job well enough for you not to worry about this?

Would you be able to name these great managers and roughly how long they have been managing this fund without looking it up now?

Is there any reason you would ever leave this fund?

P.S. Could it be that it matched S&P returns for that many years with 35-40% in stocks only because S&P is not a comparable benchmark? As others pointed out, bonds had a nice run over last many years and in fact outperformed S&P for the first time ever over a very long period of time. So comparing a balanced fund to S&P was helped by that first-time-ever-such-a-long-bond-bull-market. What do you think will happen in bond bear market?
I keep an eye on my active funds, which I don't do as much with my index funds. I've had active funds for most of my investing life, so I'm used to monitoring them. But this fund is run by a team at Wellington. There's no star manager who, if they left, would leave a vacuum in the brain trust. I've had long-term star managers who've consistently beaten their benchmarks, but I eventually dropped them because of fees.

So no, I don't know the names of the managers or details of their personal lives. I don't need to. What I go on is the fund's mission, composition, and how it's done during its lifetime. I know the arguments in favor of index funds; those funds fill my taxable account. The only reason I would leave this fund is if it no longer fit my objectives. This fund does what I need it to and I expect it to do so until and unless it changes its philosophy...which is why I keep an eye on it. But until then, I'm very happy to have it.

To each their own.
Last edited by Happy2BeFree on Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by willthrill81 »

goingup wrote:This Wellesley love is surprising. It has always been a stodgy conservative fund reserved for investors in the autumn of their years.

Young investors will not love this fund for long. It's most often used as a core-holding for retirees. Owning Wellesley is like wearing your dad's brown sweater and driving his old Buick. Bad fit if you're under 60.
Only my EF is currently in Wellesley. I'm 100% equities with my retirement assets, but that's because my risk tolerance is better than most. For those with a lower risk tolerance threshold, Wellesley could be a solid part of their portfolio. Remember that it's only trailed the S&P 500 (with no fees mind you) by .43% for nearly a half century. That's at least as good as a typical 80/20 portfolio would have done over the same period, but with far less volatility.

If Wellesley had only been around for a decade, we wouldn't be talking about it here. The fact that they have had a stretch of such solid performance for nearly five decades makes it highly unlikely that it is only a statistical anomaly. They've got something good.
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Wakefield1 »

goingup wrote:This Wellesley love is surprising. It has always been a stodgy conservative fund reserved for investors in the autumn of their years.

Young investors will not love this fund for long. It's most often used as a core-holding for retirees. driving his old Buick.
Driving his old GS 400? Might need some octane booster with the unleaded gas
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Robert T »

willthrill81 wrote:They've got something good.
They have a large value tilt (and no alpha beyond factor exposure).

Here are the factor loads of Vanguard Wellesley. With thanks to Alec for the data from 1970-2004, which I extended to 2014.

8/1970 to 12/2014

0.03 = Alpha
+0.30 = Mkt
-0.08 = Size
+0.16 = Value
+0.35 = Term
+0.28 = Default

Mkt (Mkt-rf), size (SmB), and value (HmL) are from Ken French’s website. Term and default are from the AQR website (data ends 12/2014).

Adding momentum and quality doesn’t improve the explanatory power (no increase in R^2).

The above results implies:

An average 30:70 stock:bond portfolio
Within stocks a -0.26 and 0.51 size and value load
Within bonds a 0.50 and 0.40 term and default load
Alpha was not statistically different from zero

"Over the long-term what matters is factor exposure and expense".

Robert
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Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Post by Sandtrap »

Wakefield1 wrote:
goingup wrote:This Wellesley love is surprising. It has always been a stodgy conservative fund reserved for investors in the autumn of their years.

Young investors will not love this fund for long. It's most often used as a core-holding for retirees. driving his old Buick.
Driving his old GS 400? Might need some octane booster with the unleaded gas
+1
Last edited by Sandtrap on Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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