2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
Topic Author
LibertyLover
Posts: 75
Joined: Thu May 05, 2016 5:56 am

2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LibertyLover »

Image

Here is the updated Callan Periodic Table of Returns updated through the end of 2016. 2016 was a great year for Small Cap Value and Small Cap Blend. both were in the bottom half the last two years. Rather than chasing returns in the top asset classes, the poor performers of one year are often the top performers the next. Buy low/sell high.

Developed international was dead last (MSCI EAFE). I suppose that will be used as justification for both sides of the international argument :happy
garlandwhizzer
Posts: 3562
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 3:42 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by garlandwhizzer »

The table visually makes a good case for wide diversification and reversion to the mean.

Garland Whizzer
harikaried
Posts: 2613
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:47 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by harikaried »

LibertyLover wrote:Rather than chasing returns in the top asset classes, the poor performers of one year are often the top performers the next. Buy low/sell high. Developed international was dead last (MSCI EAFE).
From 2010, Emerging Markets, EAFE, Barclays Agg have been in the bottom 2 spots for 4 years each, so it must be time to buy! ? :greedy :)
kewper
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 9:51 am

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by kewper »

I'm sorry to be obtuse but does that mean a 31.74% ANNUAL RETURN for Russell 2000 Value?
bigred77
Posts: 2049
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 4:53 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bigred77 »

kewper wrote:I'm sorry to be obtuse but does that mean a 31.74% ANNUAL RETURN for Russell 2000 Value?
Yes. That was the return from 1/1/16 - 12/31/16.
kewper
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 9:51 am

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by kewper »

Thanks.
bigred77
Posts: 2049
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 4:53 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bigred77 »

No wonder I felt like this past year was pretty blah.

Over 50% of my portfolio is in bonds and international equities. At least slightly over weighting EM helped a little this year.
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 13090
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by whodidntante »

It was a good year for my portfolio.
heyyou
Posts: 4453
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:58 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by heyyou »

That chart has been the best learning tool for me, not just the relative return squares, but the return numbers accentuate the variations. I would like to see a computer model done with each square height relative to its % return.
Theoretical
Posts: 1546
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:09 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Theoretical »

It was quite a banner year for small and value, especially Value.
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Posts: 32839
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Taylor Larimore »

LibertyLover:

Thank you for sharing the latest Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. It confirms Mr. Bogles wise advice:
Don't search for the needle. Buy the haystack.
The Three-Fund Portfolio

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Posts: 32839
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

From worst to best in 12 months

Post by Taylor Larimore »

LibertyLover:

Thank you for sharing the latest Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns.

Did anyone notice that Emerging Markets had the worst return of -53.18% in 2008 and the highest return of +79.02% in 2009--a 132.20% difference in just one year. That's volatility!

The Callan Table confirms Mr. Bogle's wise advice:
"Don't search for the needle. Buy the haystack" (and sleep well).
The Three-Fund Portfolio

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
jrbdmb
Posts: 776
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:27 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by jrbdmb »

Link to the table, please?
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Posts: 32839
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Taylor Larimore »

jrbdmb wrote:Link to the table, please?
jrbdmb:

The Table is in the Opening Post.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Topic Author
LibertyLover
Posts: 75
Joined: Thu May 05, 2016 5:56 am

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LibertyLover »

jrbdmb wrote:Link to the table, please?
PDF will download from this link: https://www.callan.com/research/files/1309.pdf

They may have you register..... it's free.
sambb
Posts: 3255
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:31 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by sambb »

thank goodness for international - theres room to run maybe
bobinberea
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:16 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bobinberea »

Could someone simply post the pdf itself? I'm supposedly registered with Callan, but when I try to login using my existing login ID and password, it won't accept them. When I try to change my password, it claims it doesn't recognize my email, saying it is not on file. I would be happy to start from scratch again and register, but I see no way to do that. I'm stuck.

If someone could simply post the pdf, that's all I really want.

Thanks.
Topic Author
LibertyLover
Posts: 75
Joined: Thu May 05, 2016 5:56 am

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LibertyLover »

Bobinbrea,

I wasn't sure how to upload a PDF so I loaded it onto my Google drive to share.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8JsbZ ... p=drivesdk
User avatar
in_reality
Posts: 4529
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:13 am

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by in_reality »

LibertyLover wrote:
Developed international was dead last (MSCI EAFE). I suppose that will be used as justification for both sides of the international argument :happy
For 2016, my funds show:
Developed Small Value +8.89%
Developed Large Value +7.7%
sambb wrote:thank goodness for international - theres room to run maybe
EM Value +30%
[S&P 500 + 14.4%]

Even after those returns actually there is. P/E10 of my EM fund I believe is still about 10 as compared to around 25 for the S&P.

Anyway, I TLH'd out of VTIAX in 2014 and into value funds so am glad to see this.
User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2650
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by saltycaper »

in_reality wrote:
P/E10 of my EM fund I believe is still about 10 as compared to around 25 for the S&P.
Where can one get P/E10 info for specific funds?
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
User avatar
in_reality
Posts: 4529
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:13 am

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by in_reality »

saltycaper wrote:
in_reality wrote:
P/E10 of my EM fund I believe is still about 10 as compared to around 25 for the S&P.
Where can one get P/E10 info for specific funds?
I don't think it's generally available. The fund provider did the calculation when they wrote an article about it.
User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2650
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by saltycaper »

in_reality wrote:
I don't think it's generally available. The fund provider did the calculation when they wrote an article about it.
Thanks. Bummer. I was excited for a moment.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
bobinberea
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:16 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bobinberea »

LibertyLover wrote:Bobinbrea,

I wasn't sure how to upload a PDF so I loaded it onto my Google drive to share.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8JsbZ ... p=drivesdk
Got it--thanks for your help!

BobinBerea
LK2012
Posts: 450
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 4:42 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LK2012 »

LibertyLover wrote:... I wasn't sure how to upload a PDF so I loaded it onto my Google drive to share.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8JsbZ ... p=drivesdk
Thank you for sharing this chart!

I'm with Taylor, it really shows you how performance varies year-to-year, and chasing it is incredibly difficult.
User avatar
Aptenodytes
Posts: 3786
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:39 pm

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Aptenodytes »

I toyed around with a different way to present this information, The main changes are:
  • + It goes back to 1985
    + I tried to cover the most-utilized asset categories among Bogleheads (e.g. I added REITs and I dropped international-developed)
    + As does the Callan table it stacks each asset category in descending order of annual returns, year by year, but it connects the positions with a line to help illustrate dynamic patterns.
The labels on the right vertical axis correspond to the 2016 ranks. The animated gif cycles through each asset category in order of 2016 ranks. I didn't try to visualize absolute returns -- the main point of the table seems to be showing how ranks are very unstable. The data are all from siamond's most recent update to the "backtest portfolio returns" spreadsheet (rev 16a, draft 3). If the animated gif doesn't render properly in your browser you can download it here.

[Embedded animated GIF removed, here's the link: return ranks.gif (GIF Image, 500 × 500 pixels) --admin LadyGeek]
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95473
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ Sorry, but animated GIFs are not permitted in this forum, see: General Etiquette
avoid posting in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS or otherwise using distracting formatting
If anyone has any questions, please PM me.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95473
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek »

The wiki has been updated for 2016: Callan periodic table of investment returns

Permission to reproduce the chart in the wiki has been received. All you need to do is ask.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
PaulF
Posts: 265
Joined: Wed Aug 06, 2008 10:07 pm
Location: Wisconsin

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by PaulF »

Aptenodytes wrote:I toyed around with a different way to present this information
That is a great way to represent this! Thanks.
Post Reply