2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 27522
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:21 pm

BOGLEHEADS:

Use the link below (updated every 15 minutes) to learn if you are in the left-hand column representing the top 50% of our Boglehead forecasters.

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/

REGISTRATION for the 2016 Boglehead Contest will be on this forum during the first ten days in January.

Happy Holidays!!

Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 4154
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am
Location: ~ Mi Propio Camino ~

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by cfs » Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:29 pm

Thank you shipmate Taylor

I see the "experts" of Barclays and Goldman Sachs within striking distance for a change [at least for a moment].

Wishing everyone a productive Wall Street's Window Dressing Final Three Days.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

Miriam2
Posts: 2329
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:51 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Miriam2 » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:26 pm

I dropped from first place to fifth in only 2 days :shock:
Last edited by Miriam2 on Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

fkampere
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:08 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by fkampere » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:27 pm

damn im 92 I guess I'm not doing to bad :P

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 4154
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am
Location: ~ Mi Propio Camino ~

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by cfs » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:29 pm

Miriam2 wrote:Drop from first place to fifth in only 2 days :shock:
Well shipmate Miriam, it happens to all of us, last year I was in first place for just a few minutes.

Wishing everyone a productive Wall Street's Window Dressing Final TWO Days.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

User avatar
dodecahedron
Posts: 3743
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:28 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by dodecahedron » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:31 pm

Miriam2 wrote:I dropped from first place to fifth in only 2 days :shock:
You are still beating ALL the "experts"!

Purelife304
Posts: 227
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:17 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Purelife304 » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:46 pm

I'm rooting for BackOfTheNet to win!
:sharebeer

LateStarter1975
Posts: 674
Joined: Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:50 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by LateStarter1975 » Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:55 pm

At No. 478, this confirms I'm terrible at predictions. Thank goodness for the joy of indexing....
Debt is dangerous...simple is beautiful

FRANK2009
Posts: 354
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:16 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by FRANK2009 » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:06 pm

4th place yea!

I wish I could reveal my secret and complicated S&P prediction formula. Ah, who am I kidding....just a guess.

Miriam2
Posts: 2329
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:51 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Miriam2 » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:50 pm

cfs wrote: . . . last year I was in first place for just a few minutes.
FRANK2009 wrote:4th place yea!I wish I could reveal my secret and complicated S&P prediction formula.
cfs and FRANK2009 - next year remind me to share with you my thorough research and my carefully plotted S&P strategy :happy
dodecahedron wrote:You are still beating ALL the "experts"!
Yes, I think my strategy worked! :happy

OK - I'm getting inundated with requests for my secret - here it is -- good old fashioned woman's intuition :D

User avatar
Info_Hound
Posts: 285
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:47 am
Location: Fort Collins, Colorado

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Info_Hound » Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:40 pm

Not to game the system...I can make the left hand column if I sort by name. :shock:

pkcrafter
Posts: 13101
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:19 pm
Location: CA
Contact:

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by pkcrafter » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:08 pm

I see now that IF I had entered the contest, I would be in first place. :happy

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

User avatar
teacher
Posts: 995
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 5:45 pm
Location: California

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by teacher » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:54 pm

Coming in 323rd out of 552 participants, at least I beat six of the fifteen "experts". Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, but not much better. :|

Miriam2
Posts: 2329
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:51 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Miriam2 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:32 pm

I wonder how the 15 experts picked their numbers :idea:

itstoomuch
Posts: 5343
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:17 pm
Location: midValley OR

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by itstoomuch » Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:35 pm

pkcrafter wrote:I see now that IF I had entered the contest, I would be in first place. :happy

Paul
I'd be in 2nd place with less risk :D :greedy
Rev012718; 4 Incm stream buckets: SS+pension; dfr'd GLWB VA & FI anntys, by time & $$ laddered; Discretionary; Rentals. LTCi. Own, not asset. Tax TBT%. Early SS. FundRatio (FR) >1.1 67/70yo

pkcrafter
Posts: 13101
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:19 pm
Location: CA
Contact:

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by pkcrafter » Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:51 pm

itstoomuch wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:I see now that IF I had entered the contest, I would be in first place. :happy

Paul
I'd be in 2nd place with less risk :D :greedy
I'm sure if you think about this a bit more, you will realize you would be tied for first place with less risk. After all, the more time you spend thinking about something, but better the odds, the more accurate the prediction, right? :sharebeer

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

itstoomuch
Posts: 5343
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:17 pm
Location: midValley OR

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by itstoomuch » Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:29 pm

pkcrafter wrote:
itstoomuch wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:I see now that IF I had entered the contest, I would be in first place. :happy

Paul
I'd be in 2nd place with less risk :D :greedy
I'm sure if you think about this a bit more, you will realize you would be tied for first place with less risk. After all, the more time you spend thinking about something, but better the odds, the more accurate the prediction, right? :sharebeer

Paul
Not thinking about it too hard... :!:
Rev012718; 4 Incm stream buckets: SS+pension; dfr'd GLWB VA & FI anntys, by time & $$ laddered; Discretionary; Rentals. LTCi. Own, not asset. Tax TBT%. Early SS. FundRatio (FR) >1.1 67/70yo

User avatar
triceratop
Moderator
Posts: 5724
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
Location: la la land

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by triceratop » Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:02 pm

Congratulations to VictoriaF! :beer
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

ABQ4804
Posts: 389
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:08 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by ABQ4804 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:03 pm

Congrats, VictoriaF! Your secret must be something you learned in Behavioral Economics!

User avatar
LiveSimple
Posts: 1078
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:55 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by LiveSimple » Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:31 pm

Congratulations VictoriaF :beer

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 12976
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by abuss368 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:36 pm

A rank of 98? I demand a recount!

Congrats!
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

User avatar
VictoriaF
Posts: 18603
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:27 am
Location: Black Swan Lake

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:49 pm

Thank you, Taylor, for the tip!
Thank you, ALL, for the congratulations!

The secret to my success ... well, it's Victoria's Secret, of course!

Happy New Year,
Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

User avatar
HueyLD
Posts: 6238
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2008 10:30 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by HueyLD » Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:51 pm

Victoria's secret? How lovely.

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 27522
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:03 pm

Bogleheads:

Victoria out-guessed 536 Boglehead contestants and 15 Wall Street professional forecasters.

It is notable that 41 Bogleheads out-guessed the best 15 professional forecasters.

I've sent a PM to Victoria about winning the contest and where to mail her book prizes.

For those who don't know, Victoria invented the "Boglehead Handshake" using only our index finger.

We all wish Victoria: Congratulations! Best Wishes! and a Happy New Year!

REGISTRATION for the 2016 Boglehead Contest will be posted January 1st.

Taylor
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

User avatar
VictoriaF
Posts: 18603
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:27 am
Location: Black Swan Lake

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:18 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

Victoria out-guessed 536 Boglehead contestants and 15 Wall Street professional forecasters.

It is notable that 41 Bogleheads out-guessed the best 15 professional forecasters.

I've sent a PM to Victoria about winning the contest and where to mail her book prizes.

For those who don't know, Victoria invented the "Boglehead Handshake" using only our index finger.

We all wish Victoria: Congratulations! Best Wishes! and a Happy New Year!

REGISTRATION for the 2016 Boglehead Contest will be posted shortly.

Taylor
Thank you Taylor! I updated my signature to reflect my prized status.

Happy New Year!

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 4154
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am
Location: ~ Mi Propio Camino ~

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Post by cfs » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:25 pm

VictoriaF wrote: . . . I updated my signature to reflect my prized status.
Shipmate Victoria, your signature looks awesome.

What a great way to close your first full year as a member of the retiredforce!

Wishing everyone a productive 2016.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

grok87
Posts: 8454
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:00 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Post by grok87 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:26 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

Victoria out-guessed 536 Boglehead contestants and 15 Wall Street professional forecasters.

It is notable that 41 Bogleheads out-guessed the best 15 professional forecasters.

I've sent a PM to Victoria about winning the contest and where to mail her book prizes.

For those who don't know, Victoria invented the "Boglehead Handshake" using only our index finger.

We all wish Victoria: Congratulations! Best Wishes! and a Happy New Year!

REGISTRATION for the 2016 Boglehead Contest will be posted shortly.

Taylor
Thank you Taylor! I updated my signature to reflect my prized status.

Happy New Year!

Victoria
congratulations!
Keep calm and Boglehead on. KCBO.

User avatar
VictoriaF
Posts: 18603
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:27 am
Location: Black Swan Lake

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:29 pm

cfs wrote:
VictoriaF wrote: . . . I updated my signature to reflect my prized status.
Shipmate Victoria, your signature looks awesome.

What a great way to close your first full year as a member of the retiredforce!

Wishing everyone a productive 2016.
Thank you, shipmate cfs! I am still dumbfounded by the win and when I start wondering if I dreamed it up, the signature will serve as evidence.

Feliz año nuevo!

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

User avatar
FreeAtLast
Posts: 646
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:08 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by FreeAtLast » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:40 pm

Congratulations, Victoria!!!

(As for me, I was happy to finish at #108 for my first year in the BH Contest)

Felice Anno Nuovo!
Free
Illegitimi non carborundum.

ramsfan
Posts: 434
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 3:27 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by ramsfan » Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:29 pm

Congrats Victoria!

Quick question to see if I am interpreting the data correctly, is it accurate that Victoria won the contest, but pretty much everyone missed by 160 points or more? Very interesting outcome if so.

Purelife304
Posts: 227
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:17 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Purelife304 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:35 pm

ramsfan wrote:Congrats Victoria!

Quick question to see if I am interpreting the data correctly, is it accurate that Victoria won the contest, but pretty much everyone missed by 160 points or more? Very interesting outcome if so.
Hi Ramsfan,

There are two columns of data. Victoria guessed 2048 and was just off by a few points.

:sharebeer

User avatar
blueblock
Posts: 865
Joined: Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:06 pm
Location: Wisconsin

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by blueblock » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:09 pm

Another congrats, VictoriaF!

And a Happy New Year to everyone!

peppers
Posts: 1344
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:05 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by peppers » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:12 pm

Congratulations Lady Victoria

Welcome to the club
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

maverick1968
Posts: 14
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:55 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by maverick1968 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:27 pm

Actual Result: 2043.94

Experts: 2219.53 (off by 8.6%)

Bogleheads: 2126.93 (off by 4.1%)

User avatar
Boglenaut
Posts: 3090
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:41 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Boglenaut » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:16 pm

VictoriaF won!!?

Wow, congratulations!

I just wish a higher guess won. ;)

Grt2bOutdoors
Posts: 19324
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:20 pm
Location: New York

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:20 pm

Congrats to Victoria! Wow, what a difference a few days can make. More importantly, you beat all of the major wirehouses with their poor predictions. :beer
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1647
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:28 pm

Congratulations Victoria! Very cool!

User avatar
Premier
Posts: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:25 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Premier » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:34 pm

@victoriaf congrats! Now if you can do it again next yr then we know you know something!
Own stocks, the course to stay; Hold bonds, for they will pay; Keep cash reserves for a rainy day.

User avatar
Mel Lindauer
Moderator
Posts: 28646
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
Contact:

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Mel Lindauer » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:41 pm

Congrats, Victoria. I'm glad that you won instead of me. I never really want to win with my annual 1313.13.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

User avatar
JMacDonald
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 5:53 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by JMacDonald » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:45 pm

Happy New year Victoria!

I am going to read your posts looking for clues to the future from now on.

Best Wishes,
Joe
Best Wishes, | Joe

Miriam2
Posts: 2329
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:51 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Miriam2 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:55 pm

Victoria's Secret - the secret sauce! :D

Compound
Posts: 616
Joined: Mon May 26, 2014 1:32 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Compound » Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:49 pm

Congrats Victoria!
(And take that Barclays and Goldman Sachs -- my random guess topped yours!)

User avatar
jimmyq
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2013 6:34 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by jimmyq » Thu Dec 31, 2015 10:15 pm

Congrats Victoria!

If you win again next year, I will be really impressed (or accuse you of owning a time machine).
I am just happy to be in the top 100, but will be even happier if the S&P500 is positive next year.

User avatar
Raymond
Posts: 1295
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2012 6:04 am
Location: Texas

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Raymond » Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:51 pm

Congratulations Victoria! :sharebeer

Since you did better than the professional forecasters, now you can open your own hedge fund and charge two-and-twenty :P
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"

User avatar
k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by k66 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:40 pm

Congratulations Victoria!

And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well...
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

Miriam2
Posts: 2329
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:51 am

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by Miriam2 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:24 pm

k66 wrote:Congratulations Victoria!
And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well...
Aw k66! - Be upbeat! You ended up in last place, BUT you didn't "lose" the contest - you brought up the rear! No one else brought up the rear! You kept everyone else up! :happy

User avatar
k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by k66 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:20 pm

Miriam2 wrote:
k66 wrote:Congratulations Victoria!
And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well...
Aw k66! - Be upbeat! You ended up in last place, BUT you didn't "lose" the contest - you brought up the rear! No one else brought up the rear! You kept everyone else up! :happy
Well, I am ok with the fact that although my "broken clock" market model didn't come through for me this year, that it will do so eventually.
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 27522
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:24 pm

Bogleheads:

Registration for the 2016 Contest has been posted here.

Happy New Year!
Taylor
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

second-guesser
Posts: 135
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 6:57 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Post by second-guesser » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:39 pm

I think it apropos that one of the
most knowledgeable and certainly
the wittiest Boglehead won the contest.
Congratulations Victoia.

S-G

denovo
Posts: 4379
Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:04 pm

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Post by denovo » Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:43 am

VictoriaF wrote:
cfs wrote:
VictoriaF wrote: . . . I updated my signature to reflect my prized status.
Shipmate Victoria, your signature looks awesome.

What a great way to close your first full year as a member of the retiredforce!

Wishing everyone a productive 2016.
Thank you, shipmate cfs! I am still dumbfounded by the win and when I start wondering if I dreamed it up, the signature will serve as evidence.

Feliz año nuevo!

Victoria
Oracle, tell us your secret!
"Don't trust everything you read on the Internet"- Abraham Lincoln

Post Reply