VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
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VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
VW stocks are crashing... I think itll crash a lot more before it stabilizes.
My question is ... think it maybe a good idea to buy when it bottoms out?
Risk wise, is it possible itll bankrupt after all the penalties, fines, recalls and reputation damage? If not, then it seems like it would be a good long term buy "cheap" once it bottoms out?
My question is ... think it maybe a good idea to buy when it bottoms out?
Risk wise, is it possible itll bankrupt after all the penalties, fines, recalls and reputation damage? If not, then it seems like it would be a good long term buy "cheap" once it bottoms out?
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
The "trying to catch a falling knife" analogy seems appropriate in this case. From an investing point, a low mileage unmodified VW diesel might turn out to be an interesting collectors item for car enthusiasts out there.
- Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
How will you recognize when it has bottomed out? We'll be able to tell in hindsight, but not in real time. The bottom for shareholders could be zero, but then, at least, you'd be able to buy an infinite number of shares.CodeMaster wrote:...
My question is ... think it maybe a good idea to buy when it bottoms out?
...
I think buying right now amounts to speculating on the outcome of several lawsuits, at least, and actions by many governments, and even if it survives those well enough to remain in business, speculating on its future earnings after all the reputational damage.
There could be a VW-Audi in the future that is reconstituted in bankruptcy court(s) from the remaining assets of the corporation, but current shareholders would likely get, given the country it's domiciled in, nichts.
PJW
Last edited by Phineas J. Whoopee on Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
VOW3 is down about $30B in market cap since the news came out. Per the news reports the bare minimum liability is likely $18B. But that is just the regulatory fine. In addition their will almost certainly be civil and criminal penalties plus the cost of the recall. The stock price reaction does not look at all out of line to me. If anything, it appears not to be discounting a worst case scenario for fees and penalties. The stock does not pay a dividend either, so you get paid nothing to wait.CodeMaster wrote:VW stocks are crashing... I think itll crash a lot more before it stabilizes.
My question is ... think it maybe a good idea to buy when it bottoms out?
Risk wise, is it possible itll bankrupt after all the penalties, fines, recalls and reputation damage? If not, then it seems like it would be a good long term buy "cheap" once it bottoms out?
Also if you are excited about a 35% stock drop, there are plenty of stocks that are down > 20% from their peak, reasonably cheap and don't face this kind of uncertainty.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
How about CodeMaster buys one share with his/her fun money and tells us how it goes? Could be an interesting experiment
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
If I were buying individual stocks then I would definitely use a reputation hit as a signal to examine the stock more closely. This doesn't really change their long term fundamentals that much so I'd start by downloading their 10-K and doing some analysis. That said, you shouldn't really be buying individual stocks, so why do you ask?
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I just bought into to VW so if you guys would like, I'll do a semi-real time performance update series.
To head off the "you shouldn't be buying individual stocks" lecture, my entertainment stock money is well under 1% of my total portfolio.
To head off the "you shouldn't be buying individual stocks" lecture, my entertainment stock money is well under 1% of my total portfolio.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I would enjoy watching that. You'll get no lectures from me.Maverick3320 wrote:I just bought into to VW so if you guys would like, I'll do a semi-real time performance update series.
To head off the "you shouldn't be buying individual stocks" lecture, my entertainment stock money is well under 1% of my total portfolio.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Everyone who bought a diesel from 2009 on based on liking a test drive, which was not the vehicles real performance has a beef now. Lawyers ..... on your mark...
Last edited by midareff on Tue Sep 22, 2015 3:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Day 1:
Purchase date: 22 Sep 2015
Price: 25.049/share
# shares: 25, VLKAY (over the counter shares of VW)
Total price: 633.22 (7 dollar fee from Vanguard)
Current price as of 15:06 CST is $25.42.
Current profit: ~3 bucks. Gotta start somewhere
Purchase date: 22 Sep 2015
Price: 25.049/share
# shares: 25, VLKAY (over the counter shares of VW)
Total price: 633.22 (7 dollar fee from Vanguard)
Current price as of 15:06 CST is $25.42.
Current profit: ~3 bucks. Gotta start somewhere
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Codemaster, what do you think you know about VW that the people who are selling it at 100 don't know?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Yes, it is always a good idea to buy at the bottom.CodeMaster wrote:VW stocks are crashing... I think itll crash a lot more before it stabilizes.
My question is ... think it maybe a good idea to buy when it bottoms out?
Risk wise, is it possible itll bankrupt after all the penalties, fines, recalls and reputation damage? If not, then it seems like it would be a good long term buy "cheap" once it bottoms out?
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I think this is another in a series of examples why most, if not all, individual investors should not buy individual equities as no amount of financial, short of insider, knowledge would have saved investors from this "train wreck".
Everyday I value more and more the knowledge i have gained from John Bogle and Bogleheads!
~Moshe
Everyday I value more and more the knowledge i have gained from John Bogle and Bogleheads!
~Moshe
My money has no emotions. ~Moshe |
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I'm the world's greatest expert on my own opinion. ~Bruce Williams
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
A recent example people should consider is BP. Their stock price has never really recovered....
"Don't trust everything you read on the Internet"- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
What was your buy price, and how many shares did you buy?Maverick3320 wrote:I just bought into to VW so if you guys would like, I'll do a semi-real time performance update series.
To head off the "you shouldn't be buying individual stocks" lecture, my entertainment stock money is well under 1% of my total portfolio.
Best Wishes, |
Joe
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=174277&p=2631741#p2631844JMacDonald wrote:What was your buy price, and how many shares did you buy?Maverick3320 wrote:I just bought into to VW so if you guys would like, I'll do a semi-real time performance update series.
To head off the "you shouldn't be buying individual stocks" lecture, my entertainment stock money is well under 1% of my total portfolio.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
denovo wrote:A recent example people should consider is BP. Their stock price has never really recovered....
I got involved with BP in my pre-boglehead days. It never did recover. A big risk VW has imo, is that the courts will go after it mercilessly like they did BP, since it's not a US based company. Even Detroit Diesel, which pulled almost the exact same ploy wrt heavy diesel engines emissions and the EPA, had to pay a billion.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I'm not sure why anyone would expect BP to "recover" considering the value of the hard assets they sold post spill. It isn't the same company.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
An $18B government penalty and a gigantic PR hit are great for a company's future prospects.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Take the money and go to Vegas ... same result, more fun.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I don't think the fundamentals of the company have changed at all. To me it seems like the market makers have overreacted. I don't think customers care that much. The difference between lab fuel consumption and real world fuel consumption has always been big, no matter what auto maker one is talking about.
Even as an owner of a four cylinder 2012 VW Diesel (which is precisely the type of engine that VW has manipulated its software for) myself I could barely care less about this case. It's mostly media hype if you ask me.
Even as an owner of a four cylinder 2012 VW Diesel (which is precisely the type of engine that VW has manipulated its software for) myself I could barely care less about this case. It's mostly media hype if you ask me.
Last edited by selters on Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I expect all vehicle's emission systems will come under scrutiny now and it will be interesting to see if the VW group is the only one gaming the system. I expect similar sneaky software could help gasoline engines too. If everyone, or even a few others are doing it, it might be a good thing for vw.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
This is the same VW that owns Porsche after buying it on the cheap.
So there is always the chance that someone like BMW or even Tata might buy it up, then the stock can probably only go up (eventually).
The fact that it is a german company might either count against it or for it. I would not use any US car manufacturer history as reference on what might happen as it is like comparing apples with steak.
So there is always the chance that someone like BMW or even Tata might buy it up, then the stock can probably only go up (eventually).
The fact that it is a german company might either count against it or for it. I would not use any US car manufacturer history as reference on what might happen as it is like comparing apples with steak.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
It also didn't save the Index ETFs that also hold the stock.moshe wrote:I think this is another in a series of examples why most, if not all, individual investors should not buy individual equities as no amount of financial, short of insider, knowledge would have saved investors from this "train wreck".
~Moshe
If you pick about 20 stocks, you are just as diversified as the index or any mutual fund.
And ALL are equally exposed to black swam events like this.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
What if VW goes the way of Worldcom, Enron, or Lehman Brothers? (Or Saab or Chrysler?)
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
TorturedRegret wrote: If you pick about 20 stocks, you are just as diversified as the index or any mutual fund.
Just make sure the other 19 stocks are not like Worldcom, Enron or Lehman Brothers.rgs92 wrote:What if VW ends up like Worldcom, Enron, or Lehman Brothers? (Or Saab or Chrysler?)
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
You seem to be saying that the impact on your portfolio of a steep decline of a single stock is the same whether that stock is one of 20 or 1 of 3814.TorturedRegret wrote: If you pick about 20 stocks, you are just as diversified as the index or any mutual fund.
And ALL are equally exposed to black swam events like this.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I would start considering a purchase when share price hits 50
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
LOL.rgs92 wrote:What if VW goes the way of Worldcom, Enron, or Lehman Brothers? (Or Saab or Chrysler?)
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I read an article that suggested buying a used vw diesal instead of the stock. The article suggested you would be able to get one at a huge discount, drive it a few years then be able to sell it for what you payed for it, netting a free ride for your car needs for a few years.
http://thegarage.jalopnik.com/forget-th ... 1732181250
Mike
http://thegarage.jalopnik.com/forget-th ... 1732181250
Mike
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
If customers didn't care about clean fuels, why does VW advertise the fact to draw customers?selters wrote:To me it seems like the market makers have overreacted. I don't think customers care that much.
I don't see millions of customers overlooking both fraud (according to EPA) and lower gas mileage (after the VW recall) without a lawsuit.
The numbers I "recall" from recent articles, each divided by the 11 million cars impacted by the recall:
$7.2 billion set aside by VW as cost of the recall, or $727/car.
up to $18 billion for EPA fines by U.S. government (only a fraction of cars were sold in U.S., not sure exact number).
$30 billion lost in stock value, the market making it's estimate of damage, or $2727/car.
The U.S. EPA has claimed fraud was involved, and the CEO has begun apologizing. Europe's regulators have just started investigating, which means more damage is nearly certain. According to the article I read, VW sells more in Europe than U.S., so the lawsuits would also be bigger there.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I agree with this reasoning. GM shares were wiped out.Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:How will you recognize when it has bottomed out? We'll be able to tell in hindsight, but not in real time. The bottom for shareholders could be zero, but then, at least, you'd be able to buy an infinite number of shares.CodeMaster wrote:...
My question is ... think it maybe a good idea to buy when it bottoms out?
...
I think buying right now amounts to speculating on the outcome of several lawsuits, at least, and actions by many governments, and even if it survives those well enough to remain in business, speculating on its future earnings after all the reputational damage.
There could be a VW-Audi in the future that is reconstituted in bankruptcy court(s) from the remaining assets of the corporation, but current shareholders would likely get, given the country it's domiciled in, nichts.
PJW
VW shares could be wiped out.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Not to pile on, but I also don't understand what TorturedRegret is saying here.Minot wrote:You seem to be saying that the impact on your portfolio of a steep decline of a single stock is the same whether that stock is one of 20 or 1 of 3814.TorturedRegret wrote: If you pick about 20 stocks, you are just as diversified as the index or any mutual fund.
And ALL are equally exposed to black swam events like this.
Kalo
"When people say they have a high risk tolerance, what they really mean is that they are willing to make a lot of money." -- Ben Stein/Phil DeMuth - The Little Book of Bullet Proof Investing.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I believe the future of automobiles is self driving cars and a lot less individual ownership. This is not as far away as many would think.
Less traffic, less parked cars, more bike lanes, etc..
I am excited about it.
Is VW ready? Not so sure...
Less traffic, less parked cars, more bike lanes, etc..
I am excited about it.
Is VW ready? Not so sure...
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I had some fun money allocation that I hadn't put to work. In the past two days I bought some shares. I understand that VW will get hit with fines and such but we are talking about one of the worlds largest car holding companies that lost about 30% market cap. I believe in the long run (5-10 years) the stock will bounce back.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
That's an urban legend.TorturedRegret wrote: If you pick about 20 stocks, you are just as diversified as the index or any mutual fund.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
I'm retired, a pretty conservative Boglehead investor, no interest in doing the 5% play money game but funny thing is, I hadn't thought of AG until now. I can't even believe I'm saying this but it's exactly how I got back to "even" after I had made several small loosing bets during the euphoric dot com era. Of course, I learned all about bubbles, investing in what you know, catching a falling knife, doubling down and how stocks really can go to 0.
I bought a value investing book (one of the old big names, I can't remember the name or the book anymore, maybe Bill Graham?) and one of the central themes was to find well beaten down companies that had good fundamentals but was well hated. Owens Illinois (OI) fit that bill to a "T" back then, it had horrible press, it was all about asbestosis. The more I researched the more it looked like all of the lawsuits were not going to bring it to it's knees and other than that it was actually a pretty well run company with good future prospects. I learned how to research a company and that there can be illegal reporting that can thwart even the best research (WCI, Enron). I also learned that doing the research, and reading and understand the book takes an incredible amount of time. Still, it's more of a gamble and for a small amount of money I probably only got a few bucks per share back for the time I put into it so it usually isn't worth it IMHO. But...
I did manage to salvage my dotcom investments, made just a little and decided I'd learned a lot of good lessons for free but I was through with fundamental analysis and individual stock picking. On the other hand AG is a huge company, the actual cost to the bottom line is unknown but will it force the company into bankruptcy? It may be a well run company with good future prospects once this is over. If the fervor in the media gets high enough and the stock price gets low enough, maybe, just maybe...
I bought a value investing book (one of the old big names, I can't remember the name or the book anymore, maybe Bill Graham?) and one of the central themes was to find well beaten down companies that had good fundamentals but was well hated. Owens Illinois (OI) fit that bill to a "T" back then, it had horrible press, it was all about asbestosis. The more I researched the more it looked like all of the lawsuits were not going to bring it to it's knees and other than that it was actually a pretty well run company with good future prospects. I learned how to research a company and that there can be illegal reporting that can thwart even the best research (WCI, Enron). I also learned that doing the research, and reading and understand the book takes an incredible amount of time. Still, it's more of a gamble and for a small amount of money I probably only got a few bucks per share back for the time I put into it so it usually isn't worth it IMHO. But...
I did manage to salvage my dotcom investments, made just a little and decided I'd learned a lot of good lessons for free but I was through with fundamental analysis and individual stock picking. On the other hand AG is a huge company, the actual cost to the bottom line is unknown but will it force the company into bankruptcy? It may be a well run company with good future prospects once this is over. If the fervor in the media gets high enough and the stock price gets low enough, maybe, just maybe...
If I am stupid I will pay.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
The question is not whether in the 5-10 years the stock will bounce back.Sourc3 wrote:I had some fun money allocation that I hadn't put to work. In the past two days I bought some shares. I understand that VW will get hit with fines and such but we are talking about one of the worlds largest car holding companies that lost about 30% market cap. I believe in the long run (5-10 years) the stock will bounce back.
There are two questions:
- would VW outperform its risk factor predicted returns, adjusted for idiosyncratic volatility,
- would it be better to buy VW after another 30, 50, or 80% drop?
If you literally buy and random stock, surely it will bounce back in next 5-10 years(*, |^)
* assuming it does not go bankrupt,
|^ assuming stock market, as a whole, does not tank in the next 5-10 years.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
dupe removed
Last edited by TradingPlaces on Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Nope, the market has already priced VW appropriately. You missed your chance to short it. Now all you can do is hold it in its market cap weight.CodeMaster wrote:VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Very interesting and valid points... Im sorry for such a noob question, but how can I see or find those stocks down 20% without such uncertainty?saurabh wrote:VOW3 is down about $30B in market cap since the news came out. Per the news reports the bare minimum liability is likely $18B. But that is just the regulatory fine. In addition their will almost certainly be civil and criminal penalties plus the cost of the recall. The stock price reaction does not look at all out of line to me. If anything, it appears not to be discounting a worst case scenario for fees and penalties. The stock does not pay a dividend either, so you get paid nothing to wait.CodeMaster wrote:VW stocks are crashing... I think itll crash a lot more before it stabilizes.
My question is ... think it maybe a good idea to buy when it bottoms out?
Risk wise, is it possible itll bankrupt after all the penalties, fines, recalls and reputation damage? If not, then it seems like it would be a good long term buy "cheap" once it bottoms out?
Also if you are excited about a 35% stock drop, there are plenty of stocks that are down > 20% from their peak, reasonably cheap and don't face this kind of uncertainty.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
LOL awesomeMaverick3320 wrote:Day 1:
Purchase date: 22 Sep 2015
Price: 25.049/share
# shares: 25, VLKAY (over the counter shares of VW)
Total price: 633.22 (7 dollar fee from Vanguard)
Current price as of 15:06 CST is $25.42.
Current profit: ~3 bucks. Gotta start somewhere
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
nothing.. thats why im asking you guys!nisiprius wrote:Codemaster, what do you think you know about VW that the people who are selling it at 100 don't know?
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
i actually boght bp at their low when oil spilled happened... they went back up to 45 and i bailed. it worked out for me, not saying im pro, but that seems to be the way to do it hehee it was all luck i pulled out.denovo wrote:A recent example people should consider is BP. Their stock price has never really recovered....
buffet did the same for BAC when it dropped to 5 , rasied to 15 and he pulled out. i wish i followed him on that one... i actually ddi the same, but wtih very little money. i fantasize had i put in my entire life savings and watching it triple, wow! lol
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
LOL might be trueBustoff wrote:Take the money and go to Vegas ... same result, more fun.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
what happened with saab and chrysler?rgs92 wrote:What if VW goes the way of Worldcom, Enron, or Lehman Brothers? (Or Saab or Chrysler?)
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
ya... at very least with fun money seems a good idea, tho i think a bounce maybe years...Toons wrote:I would start considering a purchase when share price hits 50
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
supposedly thats what people do with tesla.. my friend tried to convince me its true by showing me craigslist ads for ones on sale which were few years old being same price as new. i didnt study it carefully to verify since i didnt care, but people talking about it.. not sure how long thatll last or if its even true.mhalley wrote:I read an article that suggested buying a used vw diesal instead of the stock. The article suggested you would be able to get one at a huge discount, drive it a few years then be able to sell it for what you payed for it, netting a free ride for your car needs for a few years.
http://thegarage.jalopnik.com/forget-th ... 1732181250
Mike
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Original reports suggested that the fine alone for the deception was $37,000 per vehicle. So with 482,000 vehicles involved that could be a record $17 Billion fine. Plus of course all the expenses to fix or buy back the cars, lawsuits, decreased future sales and so on. Now reports are that approx 11 million vehicles are affected, which at $37,000 per violation would result in a fine alone up to $407 Billion. Their image as the "clean" diesel car is shot and won't be back for years, if ever. They are under fire from other countries in Europe for similar issues. They are taking heat from Germany for damage to the entire country's reputation of "German Engineering" and there may very well be criminal charges still to be filed.
I do not think it's as "obvious" as some people suggest that the drop in stock price is temporary or even that the company in it's current configuration will survive. Catch a falling knife at your own risk.
I do not think it's as "obvious" as some people suggest that the drop in stock price is temporary or even that the company in it's current configuration will survive. Catch a falling knife at your own risk.
Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
the new VW's are already being discounted by dealers. they are in full panic mode (as they should be) scrambling to move inventory. if you wanted a VW, the next couple weeks should be a great time to buy new or used.mhalley wrote:I read an article that suggested buying a used vw diesal instead of the stock. The article suggested you would be able to get one at a huge discount, drive it a few years then be able to sell it for what you payed for it, netting a free ride for your car needs for a few years.
http://thegarage.jalopnik.com/forget-th ... 1732181250
Mike