I agree that's a problem... I certainly know that the next bear market could be a prolonged one. I don't think any of us really expected everything to bounce back so fast, and it's funny (scary) how many people NOW think that last recovery was normal.UADM wrote:As I have now said many times in many threads over the past months, people learned the wrong thing from 2008. Look at what you wrote. "And then the market continued upwards." This is what people have learned to expect. That every drop will be followed with a bounce soon after.
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
As a young investor, I would love a prolonged bear market. I'm buying in slowly and steadily with every paycheck.HomerJ wrote: I agree that's a problem... I certainly know that the next bear market could be a prolonged one. I don't think any of us really expected everything to bounce back so fast, and it's funny (scary) how many people NOW think that last recovery was normal.
- InvestorNewb
- Posts: 1663
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:27 am
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Futures are up 1.5%+. Let's hope it stays that way tomorrow.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No-o-o-o! It takes 3 days for an exchange order in my spouse's 401(k) to get executed. We want the market to stay down until that happens.InvestorNewb wrote:Futures are up 1.5%+. Let's hope it stays that way tomorrow.
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It wasn't normal nor was the crash. The money changers ran the market up then took the money and ran.HomerJ wrote: it's funny (scary) how many people NOW think that last recovery was normal.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If I place an order in my vanguard taxable for VLCAX now will it gets executed at opening tomorr or end of day tomor?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
All mutual funds are end of the business hours once you placed the orderUHCOP wrote:If I place an order in my vanguard taxable for VLCAX now will it gets executed at opening tomorr or end of day tomor?
Allocation : 80/20 (90% TSM, 10% on ARKK,XBI,XLK/individual stocks and 20% TBM) |
|
Need to learn fishing sooner
- triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It will be priced at tomorrow's close; as to when it gets 'executed' is hard to say since the funds may only be taken out of your bank account 2 days later.UHCOP wrote:If I place an order in my vanguard taxable for VLCAX now will it gets executed at opening tomorr or end of day tomor?
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Thanks what I meant to ask was at what price.triceratop wrote:It will be priced at tomorrow's close; as to when it gets 'executed' is hard to say since the funds may only be taken out of your bank account 2 days later.UHCOP wrote:If I place an order in my vanguard taxable for VLCAX now will it gets executed at opening tomorr or end of day tomor?
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It is "executed" that day, Vanguard doesn't wait for funds to clear. Vanguard will hold your money until it clears though.triceratop wrote:It will be priced at tomorrow's close; as to when it gets 'executed' is hard to say since the funds may only be taken out of your bank account 2 days later.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's easy to tell the market took a huge dip today. Take a look at the statistics on this forum's Board Index page.
Near the bottom, "Who is Online"
"Most users ever online was 1009 on Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:07 am" (Eastern time, what I see.) *
That's about an hour after the big dip.
I also see quite a number of threads with "Tax Loss Harvesting" in the title...
* The old record was 771 users online in Sun Mar 01, 2015. I have no idea why.
Near the bottom, "Who is Online"
"Most users ever online was 1009 on Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:07 am" (Eastern time, what I see.) *
That's about an hour after the big dip.
I also see quite a number of threads with "Tax Loss Harvesting" in the title...
* The old record was 771 users online in Sun Mar 01, 2015. I have no idea why.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Let's also note that the dip of 2011 is almost forgotten, since it does not appear in the yearly return statistics. This one may turn out to be be similar.
What gets my goat is the $10k I have to to withdraw to make payment for fall tuition, this week.
L.
What gets my goat is the $10k I have to to withdraw to make payment for fall tuition, this week.
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You wild and crazy guy living on the edge; putting short term money in a long term investment.Leeraar wrote:What gets my goat is the $10k I have to to withdraw to make payment for fall tuition, this week.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Indeed. If 6% loss of 10K gets one's goat, one shouldn't be putting that money in the market.Uncle Pennybags wrote:You wild and crazy guy living on the edge; putting short term money in a long term investment.Leeraar wrote:What gets my goat is the $10k I have to to withdraw to make payment for fall tuition, this week.
FWIW, pre-market numbers are up like crazy (netflix +8%, apple +5%)
This article has a hilarious presumption: http://fortune.com/2015/08/25/apple-cook-cramer-sec/
Thanks, Tim Cook!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Sure, there could be a bounce today, given that China has done something to try and stem the tide... and it could go right back down tomorrow or the next. Go look at the Dow action in the fall of 2008. We had some big down days, but we also had some big UP days. Anyone who saw an up day and concluded "the worst is over" was very, very wrong: the bottom was months away.InvestorNewb wrote:Futures are up 1.5%+. Let's hope it stays that way tomorrow.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'd give is a 50% chance that it will keep going down.Tom_T wrote:Sure, there could be a bounce today, given that China has done something to try and stem the tide... and it could go right back down tomorrow or the next. Go look at the Dow action in the fall of 2008. We had some big down days, but we also had some big UP days. Anyone who saw an up day and concluded "the worst is over" was very, very wrong: the bottom was months away.InvestorNewb wrote:Futures are up 1.5%+. Let's hope it stays that way tomorrow.
Institutions matter
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.aspTom_T wrote:Sure, there could be a bounce today, given that China has done something to try and stem the tide... and it could go right back down tomorrow or the next. Go look at the Dow action in the fall of 2008. We had some big down days, but we also had some big UP days. Anyone who saw an up day and concluded "the worst is over" was very, very wrong: the bottom was months away.InvestorNewb wrote:Futures are up 1.5%+. Let's hope it stays that way tomorrow.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No argument here. My point is that it's fruitless to look at the market on any given day to determine the future. "Up today" doesn't mean up tomorrow, or down tomorrow.autonomy wrote:http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.aspTom_T wrote:Sure, there could be a bounce today, given that China has done something to try and stem the tide... and it could go right back down tomorrow or the next. Go look at the Dow action in the fall of 2008. We had some big down days, but we also had some big UP days. Anyone who saw an up day and concluded "the worst is over" was very, very wrong: the bottom was months away.InvestorNewb wrote:Futures are up 1.5%+. Let's hope it stays that way tomorrow.
Hindsight is 20/20.
- dbCooperAir
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I have as well, have not caved yet but.......CNP, CenterPoint Energy, Inc. with a 5% dividend. Toss in $2,000 and the dividend could support a case of beer every quarternew2bogle wrote:I'm always so tempted to buy individual stocks at times like these. Like C or AAPL or something! But I never know what.
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. |
-Dwight D. Eisenhower-
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Where is everybody? Is the panic over?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Everybody must be over posting in the "U.S. Stocks Skyrocketing" thread today ...Uncle Pennybags wrote:Where is everybody? Is the panic over?
"The problem with diversification is that it works, whether or not we want it to"
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
UADM,UADM wrote:toto238 wrote:I feel like talking about an individual stock and talking about a stock market are a little different. Investing in an individual stock, when it goes down 99% it's basically gone and never coming back. It very well could go completely to zero, and you could still claim you hadn't lost anything since you still have 1,000 worthless shares.UADM wrote:Agreed. As I said in another thread, if you kept your lucent stock from 2000, that went from 100 to near nothing, you could still claim you haven't lost anything because you haven't sold. You are only worth what the stocks are worth at that very moment. You could have hope about making it back, but that doesn't mean you haven't lost.ofcmetz wrote:I don't see it this way, but if it helps you to think of it this way then that's fine. I see my equities as being worth their quoted values each day, but since I expect them to be worth many times this by the time I plan on selling then then a drop today doesn't bother me as much. There are scenarios where I might need to sell equities much sooner than expected, so their value today does mean something to me.tennisplyr wrote:It's kinda sad that this post produced one of the longest threads I've seen. The way I look at it is that i haven't lost a nickel......I haven't executed a sale.
But when investing in the "market portfolio" you're investing the stock market as a whole. Not one individual stock. Especially if you're diversified across different countries, your portfolio doesn't really go to zero. A scenario in which the stock market as a whole goes to zero is a scenario so dire that there likely is no investment option that would survive that. In case of apocalypse, no stock, bond or commodity is likely to retain value.
The Market Portfolio has these special characteristics that make it different from simply investing in a stock or even small group of stocks.
Basically someone hoping for Lucent to go back to its previous value is betting on something that's extremely unlikely. Someone hoping for the stock market to recover is betting on something that's extremely likely to happen. And it will likely happen well within a reasonable time period, assuming you balanced your stocks with bonds in a reasonable allocation.
You are absolutely correct. I didn't even think of that. I am so used to my own methods that I projected. Then yes, as long as the market goes up, you can make it back. My only comment then is that we went from 6.6k to 18.4k. We are at 15.8 or so. Previous high(as I just learned it seems!) was 13.8 or so. We started at 6.6k. Is a retest of the high and breaking up above more likely or is it more likely to retrace our last steps? At 17.5k, I'd say(and di think) down. Here it is more difficult to predict. I still think down might be more likely, but as everyone keeps saying, this market always seems to bounce back after any correction. I'm still a bit timid right now.
I sense a little hostility in your replies to people who question your judgment and ability. Why not just kill two birds with one stone and release your trading records for the past 5-10 years? After all, sunlight makes the best disinfectant. If it turns out you are the modest brilliant stock picker that you claim, the critics can all eat crow. If it turns out that you may have embellished a little bit, the great unwashed masses will be that much wiser. It's really a win/win.
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
UADM, is busy market timing. Volatility like this is a traders dream, this is when 1/2 make and 1/2 lose money.Maverick3320 wrote:UADM,
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
UDAM - There's clearly enough interest, and you're interested in defending your views. How about creating a new topic?
You can post the title of the new topic here, for others to follow up.
You can post the title of the new topic here, for others to follow up.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Still following oil for market indicators. Some are saying oil in the teens which will drive down EM's and that will hurt everyone else. Dow tends to follow oil as well, OPEC is still going crazy with suppression, probably get more buying opportunities in the near future. If we can get a bottom in oil and China the markets should normalize.
HFT's had a big day yesterday, and some the companies that use them are running around today with the whole "what us, manipulate the market? Never." game face on. Been debating transfering some money to Vanguard for another buying opportunity, but I am getting close to messing with my Emergeny fund. Granted it's a 2 year emergency fund, but I don't like touching it. Europe is up big today, they are getting some good news.
You know given the stagnation in the market this year the last three trade days made sense, all that outside pressure coiled the spring. But it is not going to fix oil, there is no reason for oil to get better right now, more downside should be coming.
HFT's had a big day yesterday, and some the companies that use them are running around today with the whole "what us, manipulate the market? Never." game face on. Been debating transfering some money to Vanguard for another buying opportunity, but I am getting close to messing with my Emergeny fund. Granted it's a 2 year emergency fund, but I don't like touching it. Europe is up big today, they are getting some good news.
You know given the stagnation in the market this year the last three trade days made sense, all that outside pressure coiled the spring. But it is not going to fix oil, there is no reason for oil to get better right now, more downside should be coming.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Anyone got any idea of how some of yesterdays ETF's are going to be priced in? Several ETF's dropped yesterday in 20 to 30% range in the first 5 minutes of trading. This occured because ETF's have no pricing rules, and market makers widden the price spread with higher volatility. However the underying assets never came close to dropping in that kind of value. Not only did this practice generate more panic, many investors attempted to buy in on those dips, but the ETF's don't have the ability to sell those assets at there own special discount, especially not 20 - 30%. So will this be adjusted in the buys which may mean some people who purchased can't cover, will the orders be cancelled, did be people who sold get their money returned?
I don't own any ETF's but that is really messed up, those are huge discounts and it seems they created a mess yesterday. Why are they even allowed to create their own price that does not reflect the value of the assets?
I don't own any ETF's but that is really messed up, those are huge discounts and it seems they created a mess yesterday. Why are they even allowed to create their own price that does not reflect the value of the assets?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You don't have to pick on him. You can read the study Larry posted about a while back where they found that the top 1% of day traders in Taiwan were making 50%+/year or something.toto238 wrote:There is one of two possibilities:
1. You actually are beating the market, in which case you are a fool for revealing to everyone what you're doing
2. You aren't, as I suspect, and that's why you don't want to post your trading history
viewtopic.php?t=141076
It's clear that there are some people out there who make good returns trading in the market. You might not be one of them, and UADM might or might not be, but to claim that it's impossible when there's good evidence of persistent skill, not just luck, is to ignore the evidence. You end up sounding like one of those people who claim the dinosaur bones were planted to test their religious faith.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Just take a look around the internet. There are thousands upon thousands of traders boasting that they are beating the market everyday. All with a variation of the same story and no proof. What's so hard to believe?
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I would simply like to clarify that nowhere in what I wrote did I say it was impossible. What I said is that it IS possible and if UADM is telling the truth he's a fool for talking about it. If he is telling the truth, he's undermining his own strategy.Tanelorn wrote:You don't have to pick on him. You can read the study Larry posted about a while back where they found that the top 1% of day traders in Taiwan were making 50%+/year or something.toto238 wrote:There is one of two possibilities:
1. You actually are beating the market, in which case you are a fool for revealing to everyone what you're doing
2. You aren't, as I suspect, and that's why you don't want to post your trading history
viewtopic.php?t=141076
It's clear that there are some people out there who make good returns trading in the market. You might not be one of them, and UADM might or might not be, but to claim that it's impossible when there's good evidence of persistent skill, not just luck, is to ignore the evidence. You end up sounding like one of those people who claim the dinosaur bones were planted to test their religious faith.
What is more likely is that he is actually underperforming the market overall, but by remembering every "win" he's had and conveniently forgetting every "loss" he's convinced himself that he has beat the market. That is what's likely.
But never did I ever say it was impossible to beat the market or that it was impossible that UADM could. I would never say that.
- nisiprius
- Advisory Board
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
(Deleted by poster because it had too much snark and not enough substance).
Last edited by nisiprius on Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Reminds me of this:UADM wrote: You are assuming that I am doing something special that, if copied, would ruin what I do. This is incorrect.
If you are ever in south florida...
To quote kramer.. I will be stopping... now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQHGsUdG68U
http://dilbert.com/strip/2015-02-24
So what you're saying is that EVERYONE could do this trick and it would still work. So EVERYONE can beat the market. Which is a logical fallacy. Everyone can't beat the market. By definition. Everyone as a whole EQUALS the market.
One more for fun:
http://dilbert.com/strip/2015-02-25
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Oh, good, now you went with the 'you're jealous' attack.UADM wrote: Asking someone to post personal info and data for 5-10 years of their financial life to win an argument(An internet argument nonetheless!) is both offensive and absurd on its face. Believe or don't believe. The sad thing is that yesterday I considered(for a split second) to post the last year's returns. I even went onto Fidelity's website to see how much info I'd have to wipe. Then I realized just how insane and pathetic that was. To win an argument on the internet? I don't think so : ). You guys can believe whatever you want. It is probably better that you continue believing what you've always thought. Healthier that way.
See, that's the thing. I didn't gloat at all. I posted to correct someone's absurd and obviously incorrect assertion. People like you TAKE it as gloating because you are jealous. We aren't talking about insane returns. 14%, 8%, and 7% are not exactly gloating territory. Unfortunately, due to the nature of why people generally can't discuss finances with others, people choose to get jealous and then project that onto the other person so they don't need to deal with their insecurities.
See this thread- viewtopic.php?t=142111 or viewtopic.php?t=142039
Most of the people who don't like to hear about other peoples' good fortunes probably do the same thing. "It was probably all luck." "They are probably lying." Whatever you need to tell yourselves. I'm sorry I brought it up! Hell, if I posted it, then people would accuse me of having $100 in the account, so that making $10 is 10%! : P
It is funny that you ACTUALLY think that it is "typical" not to defend yourself on the internet by posting 5-10 years of financial history just to win an internet argument. WOW! All that anyone needs to do is accept the possibility that some professional traders know what they are doing well enough to keep on doing what they are doing. All you need is ONE to disprove the "it is impossible" derp that is going on. And that is the last I have to say on the topic : ).
Reminds me of this joke:
That joke actually captures everyone who comes on this board to preach single-stock, momentum investing, or other such things.A senior citizen was driving down the freeway when his wife called his cell phone.
"Herman, I just heard on the news that there's a car going the wrong way on Route 280. Please be careful!"
"It's not just one car," said Herman, "It's hundreds of them!"
P.S. To stay on topic, looks like the market is about to erase today's gains.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That's one's really good at demonstrating hubris. "Yeah, my investments are up 20%, I'm a genius!" Well, the S&P is up 23% and the whole market is up! Rising tide!toto238 wrote: http://dilbert.com/strip/2015-02-25
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Awww... Snarky Nisiprius is my favorite Nisiprius though!nisiprius wrote:(Deleted by poster because it had too much snark and not enough substance).
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Can't resist. Gotta do one more:autonomy wrote:That's one's really good at demonstrating hubris. "Yeah, my investments are up 20%, I'm a genius!" Well, the S&P is up 23% and the whole market is up! Rising tide!toto238 wrote: http://dilbert.com/strip/2015-02-25
http://dilbert.com/strip/2015-02-23
Technical Analysis. Love it. Even in the CFA Handbook they tell you that although you need to know about Technical Analysis you don't have to believe it works or can ever gain value. Huge disclaimer among professional financiers.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
And rally off, 600 point negative swing.
- InvestorNewb
- Posts: 1663
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
And down we go.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!InvestorNewb wrote:And down we go.
Finally this drop is starting to look real and like it could stick. The market has looked overbought and bloated for 2-3 years now and was overdue for a healthy correction or bear market. I'm hoping for a drop of around 20-30% total. That would make me feel a lot better going forward.
Of course I'm just going to keep DCAing in every Friday. Steady as she goes.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
ThebigC's question kind of got lost in the shuffle today. I would be interested in people's thoughts on this, too.Thebigc wrote:Anyone got any idea of how some of yesterdays ETF's are going to be priced in? Several ETF's dropped yesterday in 20 to 30% range in the first 5 minutes of trading. This occured because ETF's have no pricing rules, and market makers widen the price spread with higher volatility. However the underying assets never came close to dropping in that kind of value. Not only did this practice generate more panic, many investors attempted to buy in on those dips, but the ETF's don't have the ability to sell those assets at there own special discount, especially not 20 - 30%. So will this be adjusted in the buys which may mean some people who purchased can't cover, will the orders be cancelled, did be people who sold get their money returned?
I don't own any ETF's but that is really messed up, those are huge discounts and it seems they created a mess yesterday. Why are they even allowed to create their own price that does not reflect the value of the assets?
Some of you may read the British financial blogger David Malone who writes as "Golem XIV" - a year or two back he wrote a couple of essays cautioning people to stay away from ETFs for reasons along these lines. Here's the link to his June 2013 essay, which includes links to two earlier essays where he goes into a lot more detail.
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/06/etfs-a-warning/
He is most concerned about fixed-income ETFs, where he (and I) believe that the risks for discontinuity are highest, but I think these concerns apply more broadly.
Yesterday might be a useful data point in considering the above, and I don't know any details as to what was going on (and we might be getting more data points in the last little while - that collapse into the close was something of a surprise, at least to me.)ETF’s claim to make the exotic available locally, the volatile stable and safe and the institutional sized, available in bite sizes. And people have been buying into the promise of return without the risk – again....
Just like [mortgage-backed] securities and CDOs before them, ETFs and those who make the market in them, provide liquidity when all is well but when everyone really needs it, when large losses are being made – the liquidity disappears and instead we are told of ‘rare occurrences’ and ‘risk limits’....
As ETFs invade a market they essentially reduce the ‘free float’ in the underlying, which increases volatility; enables ‘macro’ manipulation over time (eg Hamanaka in copper, and current antics by the Saudis and the US in oil); and creates a disconnect with the reality of the underlying flows of value which leads inevitably – via the madness of crowds, the concentration of risk in single points of failure aka clearing houses and clearing banks and the wonders of technology eg HFT – to market discontinuities and meltdowns.
Any one have any insights?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Now I remember why my Asset Allocation is 70% Bonds/ 30% Stocks.InvestorNewb wrote:And down we go.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I removed a number of posts which degraded into an on-going disagreement on market timing. Continuity is lost. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Thanks for that quote, that is exactly what happened yesterday with the HFT's and they made a killing yesterday. They create a lot of technical damage, it takes weeks to absorb what happened and the damage they caused, and the market does not know how to react or what to do.Castanea_d. wrote:ThebigC's question kind of got lost in the shuffle today. I would be interested in people's thoughts on this, too.Thebigc wrote:Anyone got any idea of how some of yesterdays ETF's are going to be priced in? Several ETF's dropped yesterday in 20 to 30% range in the first 5 minutes of trading. This occured because ETF's have no pricing rules, and market makers widen the price spread with higher volatility. However the underying assets never came close to dropping in that kind of value. Not only did this practice generate more panic, many investors attempted to buy in on those dips, but the ETF's don't have the ability to sell those assets at there own special discount, especially not 20 - 30%. So will this be adjusted in the buys which may mean some people who purchased can't cover, will the orders be cancelled, did be people who sold get their money returned?
I don't own any ETF's but that is really messed up, those are huge discounts and it seems they created a mess yesterday. Why are they even allowed to create their own price that does not reflect the value of the assets?
Some of you may read the British financial blogger David Malone who writes as "Golem XIV" - a year or two back he wrote a couple of essays cautioning people to stay away from ETFs for reasons along these lines. Here's the link to his June 2013 essay, which includes links to two earlier essays where he goes into a lot more detail.
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/06/etfs-a-warning/
He is most concerned about fixed-income ETFs, where he (and I) believe that the risks for discontinuity are highest, but I think these concerns apply more broadly.Yesterday might be a useful data point in considering the above, and I don't know any details as to what was going on (and we might be getting more data points in the last little while - that collapse into the close was something of a surprise, at least to me.)ETF’s claim to make the exotic available locally, the volatile stable and safe and the institutional sized, available in bite sizes. And people have been buying into the promise of return without the risk – again....
Just like [mortgage-backed] securities and CDOs before them, ETFs and those who make the market in them, provide liquidity when all is well but when everyone really needs it, when large losses are being made – the liquidity disappears and instead we are told of ‘rare occurrences’ and ‘risk limits’....
As ETFs invade a market they essentially reduce the ‘free float’ in the underlying, which increases volatility; enables ‘macro’ manipulation over time (eg Hamanaka in copper, and current antics by the Saudis and the US in oil); and creates a disconnect with the reality of the underlying flows of value which leads inevitably – via the madness of crowds, the concentration of risk in single points of failure aka clearing houses and clearing banks and the wonders of technology eg HFT – to market discontinuities and meltdowns.
Any one have any insights?
Yep, could be another 10% or so coming in the next month or two. Could be more, but I hope it is not like that 3 day sell off, but slow and steady declines with some pops up and down. That would actually be healthy and take some of the air out of this market. Just going to keep nibbling as it goes down.InvestorNewb wrote:And down we go.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't. I think this landslide has some legs.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You cannot make these claims retrospectively. They hold no water. One needs to state they went 100% cash before the market declines and state 100% equities while they are taken a beating.broadstone wrote:I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't. I think this landslide has some legs.
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No, they don't or they would be retired like me ! Nobody Knows.broadstone wrote:Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That shown traders don't have a clue. Not a one lost money though.Thebigc wrote:And rally off, 600 point negative swing.
OK, I agree those with inside information can market time. I'm not an insider so I'll stick with indexing.broadstone wrote:I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The Dip Buyers must have whiplash.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
We really need a thread dedicated to market timers' predictions made at the time the decision was made. These after-the-fact claims are getting old.grap0013 wrote:You cannot make these claims retrospectively. They hold no water. One needs to state they went 100% cash before the market declines and state 100% equities while they are taken a beating.broadstone wrote:I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't. I think this landslide has some legs.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
My question is why are all the market timers landing here in the bogleheads forum? There are countless stock picking message boards where folks spend all day discussing their market timing speculations....
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Because they think they are hedgehogs...DaftInvestor wrote:My question is why are all the market timers landing here in the bogleheads forum? There are countless stock picking message boards where folks spend all day discussing their market timing speculations....
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.