Who's selling now?

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tennisplyr
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Who's selling now?

Post by tennisplyr »

So I know that Bogleheads are (probably) not selling during this downturn, but obviously there are many who are. I would liked to know who these people are? Any takers?
Last edited by tennisplyr on Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bacchus01
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Bacchus01 »

You should be selling if you have a TLH opportunity. Crazy not to.
livesoft
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by livesoft »

I sold some BND and some VCSH this morning in order to buy more equities in a rebalancing move. Since I sold, both BND and VCSH are trading lower and the things I bought are trading higher. Now that I have typed that, the market will probably take another nose dive to spite me.

On the TLH front, I do have some shares to TLH, but I am in no hurry to do so. I bought the shares after this poll in December 2014 where Bogleheads helped me decide what to buy: viewtopic.php?t=154189
Last edited by livesoft on Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DTSC
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by DTSC »

I just sold some VBMFX to buy more VINIX in my 401K too
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Maynard F. Speer
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Maynard F. Speer »

- A lot of retail investors sell when they realise they don't really have the nerve for holding stocks;

- Then again 'trend following' is a fine investment strategy, and I wrote here on Thursday that if Friday's Dow lost another 2.5%, you'd get a wave of trend-followers (comprises up to 10% of retail investors I've heard, and many hedge funds, momentum ETFs) selling this week .. Which is what I think you're seeing now;

- Sometimes cutting a loss is actually the right thing to do .. If I held US stocks, or anything on high valuations, I would sell now (although earlier would've been better), and I'd buy things at bargain prices - maybe waiting till things had settled a bit
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fposte
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by fposte »

Bacchus01 wrote:You should be selling if you have a TLH opportunity. Crazy not to.
I'm probably in the 15% bracket this year. Any tips on deciding whether to TLH or not if I don't know if I'll be 15% or 25% in the next couple of years?
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Hodor
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Hodor »

Sold some bonds to rebalance into equities. Sure as heck won't be selling any stock funds right now.
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cheese_breath
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by cheese_breath »

Bacchus01 wrote:You should be selling if you have a TLH opportunity. Crazy not to.
Unless you did LTCG harvesting earlier in the year. Crazy to waste your losses on LTCGs. But if it's still down by January, then I'll TLH.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
kolea
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by kolea »

Well, here is a breakdown of who actually owns all the equities in the market. If you look closely at the crash of 2000/1, you can see that there was a flow of ownership that went from household/mutual funds towards institutional investors. It is harder to see where the flow went in the 2008/9 crash, but it looks similar to me. I would hazard a guess that the big sellers in the last few days have been the same group: individual investors selling to institutional investors. I read a study somewhere that individual investors do worse as investors than professionals, and this is evidence of why that is the case (individuals cannot stay the course and the pros see a bargain so buy it).

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Bacchus01
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Bacchus01 »

cheese_breath wrote:
Bacchus01 wrote:You should be selling if you have a TLH opportunity. Crazy not to.
Unless you did LTCG harvesting earlier in the year. Crazy to waste your losses on LTCGs. But if it's still down by January, then I'll TLH.
I guess I don't understand this. Why not take it now and possibly again in January? You know it's down now, you don't know whether it will be down then. I don't see a reason to really wait on it unless you are in a 0% tax bracket.
UADM
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by UADM »

I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.
caklim00
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by caklim00 »

UADM wrote:I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.
My buddy did this back in early 2009, right around the time I went 100% in stocks. He regrets this decision to this day... I'm (mostly) ignoring the noise. Using this as an opportunity for some TLH (although I have not added much to taxable recently so most funds are still up) and re-balancing a bit into equity and mostly foreign equity. My broker transfer bonus just hit my IRA today. Unfortunately it came in around mid day as I missed a (potential) opportunity earlier today. Have an open order currently using that money.

I plan on staying at 90/10 Equity/Bonds. I will resit the urge to go to 100% Equity as I'm in my mid 30s now and not in my 20s anymore.
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cheese_breath
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by cheese_breath »

Bacchus01 wrote:
cheese_breath wrote:
Bacchus01 wrote:You should be selling if you have a TLH opportunity. Crazy not to.
Unless you did LTCG harvesting earlier in the year. Crazy to waste your losses on LTCGs. But if it's still down by January, then I'll TLH.
I guess I don't understand this. Why not take it now and possibly again in January? You know it's down now, you don't know whether it will be down then. I don't see a reason to really wait on it unless you are in a 0% tax bracket.
LTCGs are taxed at 0% for both the 0% and 15% tax brackets. I'm in the 15% bracket. If I TLH now it will offset the LTCGs thereby reducing the basis again and save me nothing in taxes except a few dollars on SS tax. (My LTCGs are small enough that they don't exceed the state exemption, so I pay no state tax on them.) So even if the market recovers by January I keep my higher basis from the LTCG harvest to use the next time it swoons.
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mindboggling
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by mindboggling »

I am retired but work part-time. As a retiree, I would never sell fixed income to buy equities, but I have purchased more shares of S&P500 index fund in my taxable account with the small amount of new money that comes in.

I hope prices are still low at the end of September when the quarterly distributions come out.

steve
Last edited by mindboggling on Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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swguy
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by swguy »

I'm not selling. I'm still fuming because I was too slow getting an order (or three) in and missed VHT when it was down 30+ %
poker27
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by poker27 »

S&P is down what, 7% in the past 2 trading sessions? I bought a whopping $1500 bucks in VTSMX today that I had laying around. Will obviously do next to nothing in the long run, but will make me feel better about my paper 'losses' today.
johnkidding
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by johnkidding »

The only transaction I made today was buying a "mini segway" from amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00WGX ... ge_o00_s00

These things are going to be hugely popular the next few months, so I'm telling myself that this is "market research" for a mall-kiosk venture.

I may consider doing my annual HSA contribution next week.
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HomerJ
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by HomerJ »

UADM wrote:I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.
Feel free to keep us updated... Or you could wait until the market goes up 20% and then tell us how you went 100% into the market a month before that. :)
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SeeMoe
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by SeeMoe »

caklim00 wrote:
UADM wrote:I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.
My buddy did this back in early 2009, right around the time I went 100% in stocks. He regrets this decision to this day... I'm (mostly) ignoring the noise. Using this as an opportunity for some TLH (although I have not added much to taxable recently so most funds are still up) and re-balancing a bit into equity and mostly foreign equity. My broker transfer bonus just hit my IRA today. Unfortunately it came in around mid day as I missed a (potential) opportunity earlier today. Have an open order currently using that money.

I plan on staying at 90/10 Equity/Bonds. I will resit the urge to go to 100% Equity as I'm in my mid 30s now and not in my 20s anymore.
May we borrow your Crystal " Market Timing" Ball, please ?
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Clever_Username
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Clever_Username »

I was planning to sell about $40k worth of stocks in taxable at the end of the week (I made these plans a week or two ago) to pay down my mortgage before a refinance. Now I'm a little hesitant, even though I recognize that (1) my desire to pay down the mortgage (as a means of towards a future down payment) means I need to take the money out of stocks *anyway*, and (2) there is a nice TLH opportunity (I'm in 28% federal 9.3% state).

Upon doing this, I'll also need to rebalance my tax-advantaged accounts.
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Did some TLH out of Total International into FTSE All-World.
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IlliniDave
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by IlliniDave »

TLH out of VG EM index and Total International into Total Stock Market, then in 401k sold Total Stock Market and bought an active developing markets fund (only ~EM in the plan), and a Northern Trust international fund that tracks a different index than VG Total International. That's the most "complicated" maneuver I've ever made! I feel like a big boy investor now.
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jjface
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by jjface »

TLH today
I happen to be sitting on some cash and I put some into VTI today. Not in too much of a hurry as there is probably some room left to go down - I know I know I shouldn't time.
UADM
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by UADM »

caklim00 wrote:
UADM wrote:I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.
My buddy did this back in early 2009, right around the time I went 100% in stocks. He regrets this decision to this day... I'm (mostly) ignoring the noise. Using this as an opportunity for some TLH (although I have not added much to taxable recently so most funds are still up) and re-balancing a bit into equity and mostly foreign equity. My broker transfer bonus just hit my IRA today. Unfortunately it came in around mid day as I missed a (potential) opportunity earlier today. Have an open order currently using that money.

I plan on staying at 90/10 Equity/Bonds. I will resit the urge to go to 100% Equity as I'm in my mid 30s now and not in my 20s anymore.
I'm not sure what you are trying to say.
UADM
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by UADM »

SeeMoe wrote:
caklim00 wrote:
UADM wrote:I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.
My buddy did this back in early 2009, right around the time I went 100% in stocks. He regrets this decision to this day... I'm (mostly) ignoring the noise. Using this as an opportunity for some TLH (although I have not added much to taxable recently so most funds are still up) and re-balancing a bit into equity and mostly foreign equity. My broker transfer bonus just hit my IRA today. Unfortunately it came in around mid day as I missed a (potential) opportunity earlier today. Have an open order currently using that money.

I plan on staying at 90/10 Equity/Bonds. I will resit the urge to go to 100% Equity as I'm in my mid 30s now and not in my 20s anymore.
May we borrow your Crystal " Market Timing" Ball, please ?
It isn't possible, or to be expected, unless you do the stock market for a living.
scotthal
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by scotthal »

Retired; just dumped my entire Roth:VWIAX (Wellesley) holdings (exchanged it for PrimeCap Core).
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tdonline
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by tdonline »

Is it possible to TLH and buy additional shares in the same fund?

Earlier this year I bought 30K in Total International. I'm thinking about doing my first TLH and shifting the funds into FTSE All-World. I also have 10K in cash I would like to invest. Can I TLH and buy another 10K into FTSE-All World? Will the 10K buy affect my TLH?
jjface
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by jjface »

tdonline wrote:Is it possible to TLH and buy additional shares in the same fund?

Earlier this year I bought 30K in Total International. I'm thinking about doing my first TLH and shifting the funds into FTSE All-World. I also have 10K in cash I would like to invest. Can I TLH and buy another 10K into FTSE-All World? Will the 10K buy affect my TLH?
You can do that - it is the fund that is sold that is key. IE you cannot buy the extra 10k as total international as that will trigger a wash sale and void your TLH.
caklim00
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by caklim00 »

SeeMoe wrote:
caklim00 wrote:
UADM wrote:I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.
My buddy did this back in early 2009, right around the time I went 100% in stocks. He regrets this decision to this day... I'm (mostly) ignoring the noise. Using this as an opportunity for some TLH (although I have not added much to taxable recently so most funds are still up) and re-balancing a bit into equity and mostly foreign equity. My broker transfer bonus just hit my IRA today. Unfortunately it came in around mid day as I missed a (potential) opportunity earlier today. Have an open order currently using that money.

I plan on staying at 90/10 Equity/Bonds. I will resit the urge to go to 100% Equity as I'm in my mid 30s now and not in my 20s anymore.
May we borrow your Crystal " Market Timing" Ball, please ?
I told my buddy I attributed it to luck. Honestly, other moves in trying to harvest losses, get more of a tilt (PXSV, DGS, etc.) , split US/Intl 50/50 etc. have been a drag on my portfolio.
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LAlearning
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by LAlearning »

tennisplyr wrote:So I know that Bogleheads are (probably) not selling during this downturn, but obviously there are many who are. I would liked to know who these people are? Any takers?
the smart and the dumb are selling now.
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FillorKill
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by FillorKill »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Did some TLH out of Total International into FTSE All-World.
I went the other way.... Again....
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Kevin M
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Kevin M »

I sold some VWO. Oh yeah, but then a few second later I bought some IEMG--actually a bit more dollar value than I sold of VWO, after rounding up to even number of shares. TLH.

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Kaufmanrider
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Kaufmanrider »

I have been tempted to sell the past few days but then I take a deep breath and look back on my investing/401 k history. I bought and held SP500, 100% from 1988 through 2008. In 2008 I panic sold and tried to outsmart the market and time it. My friend kept telling me just roll the dice and let it ride, which he did. I did OK, but my friend did better with less stress.

Looking back I did better, with less stress and headaches when I bought and forgot about it.

Five years later in 2013 I got smart and invested at a 60/40 and decided to let it ride. Now I just rebalance annually, or with the 5/25 rule.
Rodc
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Rodc »

I am in no hurry to sell.

If this keeps up for a while I will.

I will sell bonds to buy stocks.
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jadd806
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by jadd806 »

Most of the folks at work were panicking and checking the market every 15 minutes, especially right after the opening bell. A couple even sold out of equities right then and there. Even more stated that they can't take the pain and if tomorrow is a down day as well they'll be selling out on Wednesday. Our resident stock pickers took the biggest beating of all today, though.
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watchnerd
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by watchnerd »

I'm selling BND / VBMFX to buy a bond vehicle that is more Treasury-centric; the last two days have been educational on the benefits of a more pure Treasuries fund vs total bond market.
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Call_Me_Op »

watchnerd wrote:I'm selling BND / VBMFX to buy a bond vehicle that is more Treasury-centric; the last two days have been educational on the benefits of a more pure Treasuries fund vs total bond market.
Sounds a bit like closing the barn doors after the horses have run off.
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Kevin M »

watchnerd wrote:I'm selling BND / VBMFX to buy a bond vehicle that is more Treasury-centric; the last two days have been educational on the benefits of a more pure Treasuries fund vs total bond market.
Sometimes it works out that way, sometimes it doesn't. BND has about 60% government bonds, so we don't see as much difference as with a corporate or investment grade bond fund. BND ended up down only 0.02% down today, so no big deal.

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ofcmetz
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by ofcmetz »

I checked and I had hit my rebalancing bands with the drop today. I sold some Intermediate Term Bond Index Fund and some stable value and bought Total Stock and Total International Stock. I may hit the bands again soon it seems.
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by moshe »

UADM wrote:
It isn't possible, or to be expected, unless you do the stock market for a living.
Just out of curiosity how does one "do the stock market..." ?

~Moshe
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by UADM »

moshe wrote:
UADM wrote:
It isn't possible, or to be expected, unless you do the stock market for a living.
Just out of curiosity how does one "do the stock market..." ?

~Moshe
Oh, I just trade for a living. Not a "day trader," in that I trade nonstop every day. I just go in and out as needed to make money.
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Raymond
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by Raymond »

I was over my planned asset allocation of 65% stocks/35% bonds - it was up to 70/30 until recently, and I was planning to rebalance.

Guess I don't have to do anything now, as it's back to 67/33 :P

I am a long way from being able to TLH my individual stocks I inherited in 2011.

In hindsight, I should have sold them then and invested in Vanguard funds, oh well.
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by bayview »

mindboggling wrote:I am retired but work part-time. As a retiree, I would never sell fixed income to buy equities, but I have purchased more shares of S&P500 index fund in my taxable account with the small amount of new money that comes in.

I hope prices are still low at the end of September when the quarterly distributions come out.

steve
+1

I'm too close to retirement to sell bonds to buy stocks (I've been convinced by the idea of asymmetrical rebalancing for this stage of my life), but if things stay crazy, I'll start putting all my new retirement contributions into equities. It's a slower rebalance, but it works.
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paper200
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by paper200 »

The question is who is buying now?
Having freedom, food and roof is being 90% lucky in life and so is index investing. So, don't let the remaining 10% bother you.
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by tj »

paper200 wrote:The question is who is buying now?

I am. This 8% drop the past few days has put my 70/30 allocation quite a bit out of whack.
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by moshe »

paper200 wrote:The question is who is buying now?
"Buy low, sell high" my IPS says....so sold some bonds and bought some equities.

~Moshe
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by moshe »

UADM wrote:
moshe wrote:
UADM wrote:
It isn't possible, or to be expected, unless you do the stock market for a living.
Just out of curiosity how does one "do the stock market..." ?

~Moshe
Oh, I just trade for a living. Not a "day trader," in that I trade nonstop every day. I just go in and out as needed to make money.
Thank you for your reply UADM!

How do you decide which equities to trade and when to trade them? I am impressed that you can make a living doing this. How long have you been trading "for a living" for ?

Do you use certain triggers, for example, momentum, P/E, P/B, short %, float %, FCFs, div %, revenue growth, profit growth, or similar or do you use technical analysis? Also, how often do you trade?

I am not trying to "stir the pot" so to speak but seriously interested. In all my years of investment i have never found any reliable Buy/Sell triggers other than dumb luck so am very interested.

~Moshe
My money has no emotions. ~Moshe | | I'm the world's greatest expert on my own opinion. ~Bruce Williams
UADM
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Re: Who's selling now?

Post by UADM »

moshe wrote:
UADM wrote:
moshe wrote:
UADM wrote:
It isn't possible, or to be expected, unless you do the stock market for a living.
Just out of curiosity how does one "do the stock market..." ?

~Moshe
Oh, I just trade for a living. Not a "day trader," in that I trade nonstop every day. I just go in and out as needed to make money.
Thank you for your reply UADM!

How do you decide which equities to trade and when to trade them? I am impressed that you can make a living doing this. How long have you been trading "for a living" for ?

Do you use certain triggers, for example, momentum, P/E, P/B, short %, float %, FCFs, div %, revenue growth, profit growth, or similar or do you use technical analysis? Also, how often do you trade?

I am not trying to "stir the pot" so to speak but seriously interested. In all my years of investment i have never found any reliable Buy/Sell triggers other than dumb luck so am very interested.

~Moshe
To make a long story short, I was trained by my father, who is pretty genius level when it comes to investing. He has done greater than I ever will be capable of. We've changed strategies a few times over the years. In 2003, when I started, we did a bit of everything, including tech. My father had been doing the market since the mid to late 90s. Then we moved onto reits(which have been bleh for forever). Then Canadian oil sands, until Canadian legislation destroyed them. For many years, we've been trading oil and gas pipeline MLPs. They have high dividends, and tend to be cyclical around their dividend cycles. Buy after pullbacks, make a few bucks, sell when they get overextended, and wait for the next pullback. Buy the ones with high dividends, good outlooks on wells fargo's reports, etc. Patience is important and knowing when to jump on them.

The pipelines have been extremely volatile since last October, which have made things more difficult, but we have done very well on them. Lately, we have been sticking to the MLP funds, as they own a bit of everything, and therefore are safer when it comes to avoiding potential bad news that could always hit individual stocks. With oil breaking new lows, I have no idea how they will be in the near or long term future, however.

We spend a lot of time on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities. We have also spent some time playing with healthcare stocks recently, and even drug related and biotech companies. Today, for example, I unusually went and played with SPY, since it just made sense on a day like today. I hesitated for half of a second, and missed out on buying CELG at 93.6. It immediately shot up 20 points. It started off down near 20-25%. That is the benefit of being able to watch things and react second by second. Since I missed CELG, I went for ACHC. Generally, though, we stick to pipelines and other high dividend situations.

We look at insider buying, PE, earnings, debt, etc. We don't use too many technical indicators, though I love the idea.

It is all a bit weird what we do, that is for sure.
moshe
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:18 pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Who's selling now?

Post by moshe »

UADM wrote:
moshe wrote:
UADM wrote:
moshe wrote:
UADM wrote:
It isn't possible, or to be expected, unless you do the stock market for a living.
Just out of curiosity how does one "do the stock market..." ?

~Moshe
Oh, I just trade for a living. Not a "day trader," in that I trade nonstop every day. I just go in and out as needed to make money.
Thank you for your reply UADM!

How do you decide which equities to trade and when to trade them? I am impressed that you can make a living doing this. How long have you been trading "for a living" for ?

Do you use certain triggers, for example, momentum, P/E, P/B, short %, float %, FCFs, div %, revenue growth, profit growth, or similar or do you use technical analysis? Also, how often do you trade?

I am not trying to "stir the pot" so to speak but seriously interested. In all my years of investment i have never found any reliable Buy/Sell triggers other than dumb luck so am very interested.

~Moshe
To make a long story short, I was trained by my father, who is pretty genius level when it comes to investing. He has done greater than I ever will be capable of. We've changed strategies a few times over the years. In 2003, when I started, we did a bit of everything, including tech. My father had been doing the market since the mid to late 90s. Then we moved onto reits(which have been bleh for forever). Then Canadian oil sands, until Canadian legislation destroyed them. For many years, we've been trading oil and gas pipeline MLPs. They have high dividends, and tend to be cyclical around their dividend cycles. Buy after pullbacks, make a few bucks, sell when they get overextended, and wait for the next pullback. Buy the ones with high dividends, good outlooks on wells fargo's reports, etc. Patience is important and knowing when to jump on them.

The pipelines have been extremely volatile since last October, which have made things more difficult, but we have done very well on them. Lately, we have been sticking to the MLP funds, as they own a bit of everything, and therefore are safer when it comes to avoiding potential bad news that could always hit individual stocks. With oil breaking new lows, I have no idea how they will be in the near or long term future, however.

We spend a lot of time on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities. We have also spent some time playing with healthcare stocks recently, and even drug related and biotech companies. Today, for example, I unusually went and played with SPY, since it just made sense on a day like today. I hesitated for half of a second, and missed out on buying CELG at 93.6. It immediately shot up 20 points. It started off down near 20-25%. That is the benefit of being able to watch things and react second by second. Since I missed CELG, I went for ACHC. Generally, though, we stick to pipelines and other high dividend situations.

We look at insider buying, PE, earnings, debt, etc. We don't use too many technical indicators, though I love the idea.

It is all a bit weird what we do, that is for sure.
I hope it is skill and not just random luck or you will find out the hard way that RTM rules. Perhaps you have some knowledge that others lack! In any event if it works for you more power to you!

I know how to read financial statements better than most but often have found that the past results have limited impact on the current/future stock price.

Al the best,
~Moshe
My money has no emotions. ~Moshe | | I'm the world's greatest expert on my own opinion. ~Bruce Williams
UADM
Posts: 224
Joined: Fri Apr 04, 2014 4:54 pm

Re: Who's selling now?

Post by UADM »

Does luck last decades? What does rmt stand for?
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