U.S. stocks in freefall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
livesoft
Posts: 57281
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:30 pm

REITs are UP today! Woo-hoo!
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
VictoriaF
Posts: 17582
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:27 am
Location: Black Swan Lake

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:42 pm

dgdevil wrote:Emerging markets? That's brave.


Is Russia still considered an Emerging market, or it has joined the Scourging market?

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

dgdevil
Posts: 938
Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:42 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dgdevil » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:50 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
dgdevil wrote:Emerging markets? That's brave.


Is Russia still considered an Emerging market, or it has joined the Scourging market?

Victoria


Submerging. (Russia + Bra7il)

Leeraar
Posts: 4109
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:41 pm
Location: Nowhere

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:01 pm

How soon we forget.

On March 9, 2009, the market saw its low. Vanguard Total Stock Market, VTSAX (adjusted for total return) closed at $14.56.

Yesterday, March 9, 2015, it closed at $52.50. That's a 261% increase, or a compounded return of 23.8% per year!

Even if the market drops 50% from here, you'll still have a compounded return of over 10% for the last six years.

Hold on, enjoy the ride!

L.

(edited for typo)
Last edited by Leeraar on Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 12104
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:13 pm

LOL,,,I was thinking about this thread earlier,,,,,Doesn't surprise me at all it surfaced again,,,,,
The majority already know this but the record highs after a six year bull run WILL be surpassed again,,,,
The ensuing "noise" is entertaining though :sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

User avatar
walletless
Posts: 707
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by walletless » Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:40 pm

dgdevil wrote:Emerging markets? That's brave.

Yeah, my AA called for it. Staying the course.

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:02 pm

Leeraar wrote:How soon we forget.

On March 9, 2009, the market saw its low. Vanguard Total Stock Market, VTSAX (adjusted for total return) closed at $14.56.

Yesterday, March 9, 2015, it closed at $52.50. That's a 261% increase, or a compounded return of 23.8% per year!

Even if the market drops 50% from here, you'll still have a compounded return of over 10% for the last six years.

Hold on, enjoy the ride!

L.

(edited for typo)

How much did your returns compound if you didn't happen to market time into stocks at the low on Mar 9, 2009, but instead were already in and rode it down? If you cherry picked Nov 15, 2007 as the starting point you got to enjoy a 54% drawdown and your total return to date would be 73% or a compound annual return of 7.8%. If the market drops 50% from here, you'll have a total return of 23% or a compound return of about 3% -- you coulda had a CD instead. Hold on -- but you might not enjoy the ride depending on where the ride starts.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

Leeraar
Posts: 4109
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:41 pm
Location: Nowhere

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:21 pm

If you cherry picked ...

The reason I posted is because this thread was revived on the sixth anniversary of the market low.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:02 pm

Another interesting coincidence: at the market high when the crash began, CAPE hit 27.32 in October,2007. It just surpassed that value in February, 2015 and stood at 27.92. My thoughts are that another 50% decline from here is more likely than a 261% gain. We might get this thread going strong again soon...
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

antiqueman
Posts: 403
Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 5:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by antiqueman » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:12 pm

Where is LBill who started this thread? It doesn't seem he/she has posted since 2012. Does anyone know what happened?

User avatar
jwillis77373
Posts: 393
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:52 pm
Location: Texas

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jwillis77373 » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:24 pm

Red Apple Sale ! These occur Far too rarely.

When else are you guaranteed a massive return in the short term?

All I can think about is the investments I have will return to the mean.. but the investments I make now will be artificially "Inflated" when the market returns to the mean.. by all the dollars people threw away exiting the market. Shear lunacy.. doesnt take a high priced advisor to see an index will rebalance for you in the most efficient manner possible, the larger the index the better and the lower the fees. If its held in a tax advantaged account like a retirement fund.. wow.. nuclear

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 26248
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

A good thread on the importance of "Stay the Course."

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:47 pm

antiqueman wrote:Where is LBill who started this thread? It doesn't seem he/she has posted since 2012. Does anyone know what happened?

antqueman:
I honestly think that investing in stocks stinks. It's a legitimate viewpoint even though it's a voice in wilderness in the Cult of Equities. You can make pretty good returns without undergoing the torture of the stock market - I always have. -- LBill, August 2011

In August, 2011 the S&P 500 Index was 1250. Today it is 2044 (not including dividends).

This thread offers a good lesson why stocks can be an excellent long-term investment for those who have the knowledge and courage to "Stay the course."

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

z3r0c00l
Posts: 947
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:43 am
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by z3r0c00l » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:59 pm

The Dow needs to get reduced 10x so people stop freaking out about the number change and focus back on the percentage. I bet that alone would get extra life into the bull market. There really is this feeling that anything over 10,000 is overvalued. I feel it when I look at IBOVESPA. I think this is called the Money Illusion.

PeanutButterIsJelly
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2014 12:14 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by PeanutButterIsJelly » Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:18 pm

I stopped by to say hello to this thread, as I knew it would be near the top. :D

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2259
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:34 pm

It was just a one day freefall. It's been a many year free rise. Buying at the time this thread started made some people some money for sure.

I also wonder what happened to the OP. This thread does live on without him.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 8846
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:38 pm

Another Nedsaid contrary indicator is the "U.S. stocks in freefall" Bogleheads' thread. According to this indicator, it is time to buy stocks whenever this thread gets rolling again.
A fool and his money are good for business.

User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 1583
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JonnyDVM » Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:52 pm

ofcmetz wrote:I also wonder what happened to the OP. This thread does live on without him.


Guys was gloating in 2011 about how brilliant he was for eschewing equities. Looks pretty dumb now. Many of the early posts are from names I don't recognize at all. Must have moved on I guess. Does discussing indexing and staying the course get old after several years ?
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

Leeraar
Posts: 4109
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:41 pm
Location: Nowhere

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:21 pm

In 2011 there was a market drop that had some declare the sky was falling. That variation is somewhat washed out in the calendar year over year comparisons that are often made.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:07 am

But on the other hand, LBill might have been expressing the frustration of many investors in Aug, 2011. In September, 2011 the S&P 500 was where it was at the beginning of 2000 -- about 11 years of dead money punctuated by a couple of 50% drawdowns. All the gains in the market since the beginning of 2000 have occurred since then, a period of just 3 1/2 years. When planning to stay the course, it might serve to refresh one's memory of what the "course" can look like.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

User avatar
GingerU
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:23 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GingerU » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:32 pm

I'm not trying to time the market but I bought some ETFs (ITOT through Fidelity) about a for several months now and i'm not seeing any progress. It seems that the market is unstable that I should wait before making any further investments. I don't think Thoughts? Are any of you holding off expecting further declines?

Manbaerpig
Posts: 1368
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:32 am
Location: San Jose

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Manbaerpig » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:44 am

the chances of another recession out there somewhere is always 100%

determining when that might happen to be [and when it will be reflected in equity pricing] are two additional problem areas

sketchy9
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:10 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sketchy9 » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:57 am

Leeraar wrote:In 2011 there was a market drop that had some declare the sky was falling. That variation is somewhat washed out in the calendar year over year comparisons that are often made.

L.


The market drop in August 2011 coincided with the refusal to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility of US default, both of which led to the downgrading of US credit. It was by no means obvious at the time that things would work themselves out. Personally I was very happy at the time as it allowed me to realize some extreme capital losses that I am still utilizing today.

User avatar
ogd
Posts: 4809
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:43 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ogd » Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:03 am

GingerU wrote:I'm not trying to time the market but I bought some ETFs (ITOT through Fidelity) about a for several months now and i'm not seeing any progress. It seems that the market is unstable that I should wait before making any further investments. I don't think Thoughts? Are any of you holding off expecting further declines?

Ask yourself if your question is the equivalent of "I want to pay more for my further investments". I think it is.

Imagine a situation in which you feel you have a green light to buy and everything, the economy etc, is rolling just fine. In this scenario, is the S&P likely to be lower or higher than now? Is it better to be invested or on the sidelines?

User avatar
Bustoff
Posts: 1979
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2012 6:45 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bustoff » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:34 am

Too soon ?

User avatar
k66
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by k66 » Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:18 am

GingerU wrote:I'm not trying to time the market but I bought some ETFs (ITOT through Fidelity) about a for several months now and i'm not seeing any progress. It seems that the market is unstable that I should wait before making any further investments. I don't think Thoughts? Are any of you holding off expecting further declines?


The market is always unstable, if you want to call it that. But bear in mind that this is near-term behaviour. Think long-term (years or even decades, not days, weeks, or months). The blue line almost always goes up!

Sometime in the next four weeks, I will be cashing out a company bonus and plunking it down 100% into my designated four funds completely irrespective of the noise going on at the time. However, I would be especially pleased if the "market" tanks a few more percentage points while I wait during this time... only so I can steal a few more units of those funds!
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

User avatar
zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 1853
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:16 pm

US and international are still slightly positive for 2015.

HurdyGurdy
Posts: 1166
Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 10:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HurdyGurdy » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:17 pm

Life is bare, gloom and misery everywhere
Stormy weather
Just can't get my poor self together,
I'm weary all the time
So weary all the time
When he went away the blues walked in and met me.
If he stays away old rockin' chair will get me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrqY-JfEzbE
(Dinah Washington's rendition)

wingz
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wingz » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:23 pm

the moment I see this thread bumped, i am forced to check how big is the drop :P

InvestorWD
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2014 12:52 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by InvestorWD » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:27 pm

Can I buy some International index fund VTIAX today? I don't have any international fund so far... Anyone is buying anything today?

FullYellowJacket
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:21 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FullYellowJacket » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:28 pm

Right in time for 401(k) contribution day!

singern
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:15 pm
Location: The Center Of The Universe

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by singern » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:33 pm

FullYellowJacket wrote:Right in time for 401(k) contribution day!



+1. I was thinking that myself!
I haven't "needed the money" since I took Archie's milk money in the third grade.... but I like it - The Departed, 2006.

veggivet
Posts: 217
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:07 pm
Location: New England

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by veggivet » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:34 pm

Added to positions in VEA and VEU today.

User avatar
dbCooperAir
Posts: 1107
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:34 pm

I was waiting for this to popup today!
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 741
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:43 pm

Back the truck up - cat food is on sale! :greedy
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

User avatar
walletless
Posts: 707
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by walletless » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:52 pm

oldzey wrote:Back the truck up - cat food is on sale! :greedy

Funny how S&P 500 at 2075 seems like on-sale now :-)

User avatar
Mel Lindauer
Moderator
Posts: 27629
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:57 pm

Here's a recent timely Forbes column of mine that may well be applicable here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theboglehea ... rebalance/
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

User avatar
k66
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by k66 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:59 pm

OK -- time to sell. This thread forms the backbone of my market-timing process...
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

peppers
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by peppers » Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:14 pm

And on a side note my grecian daisies and hyacinthus are finally blooming.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 26248
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Mel's Forbes column explains "Rebalancing."

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:25 pm

Mel Lindauer wrote:Here's a recent timely Forbes column of mine that may well be applicable here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theboglehea ... rebalance/

Mel:

Thank you for sharing another one of your outstanding Forbes columns. You have a way of making complicated theories simple to understand.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

User avatar
Mel Lindauer
Moderator
Posts: 27629
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
Contact:

Re: Mel's Forbes column explains "Rebalancing."

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:45 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mel Lindauer wrote:Here's a recent timely Forbes column of mine that may well be applicable here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theboglehea ... rebalance/

Mel:

Thank you for sharing another one of your outstanding Forbes columns. You have a way of making complicated theories simple to understand.

Best wishes.
Taylor


Thanks for the kind words, Taylor. As you may have noticed, in my columns I frequently make good use of the forum's wiki, which is an excellent reservoir of solid, helpful information. Kudos to all the Bogleheads who contribute to the wiki and help make it what it is.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

User avatar
Majormajor78
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:13 pm
Location: Chicagoish

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Majormajor78 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:16 pm

singern wrote:
FullYellowJacket wrote:Right in time for 401(k) contribution day!



+1. I was thinking that myself!

I was confused when the drop occured today since today is supposed to be 401K contribution day and the drop is supposed to always come the day after. Then I checked and realized that somebody hit the send button early and the contribution cleared yesterday... :oops:

All is well with the world, I missed it.
"Oh, M. le Comte, it is only a loss of money which I have sustained... nothing worth mentioning, I assure you."

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Fri Apr 17, 2015 8:23 pm

Aaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!

Image
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

More Please
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:13 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by More Please » Fri Apr 17, 2015 8:40 pm

Excellent article Mel, very clearly written and timely. Thanks for everything you do!

User avatar
baw703916
Posts: 6644
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 1:10 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by baw703916 » Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:31 pm

Since I posted on this thread many moons ago, I can now just click the "view your posts" button and see whether there has been a Pretty Bad Day recently--whenever there is there's a new post in this thread and it pops up to the top. :wink:
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

User avatar
House Blend
Posts: 4245
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by House Blend » Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:52 am

Bump.

Scandium
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2013 9:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Scandium » Mon Apr 20, 2015 11:46 am

Browser wrote:Aaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!

Image


That's going to hurt when he hits the bottom..

User avatar
roymeo
Posts: 1176
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: SF, CA
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by roymeo » Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:11 pm

I don't even remember which website I used to use to check 'how the market is doing'...I'm not in it for a day gain/loss, so I don't pay attention to those 'today's results' things, just skip that page in the Espresso app, etc.
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. | -- "Libra", Don DeLillo

tecmage
Posts: 108
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:26 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tecmage » Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:23 pm

baw703916 wrote:Since I posted on this thread many moons ago, I can now just click the "view your posts" button and see whether there has been a Pretty Bad Day recently--whenever there is there's a new post in this thread and it pops up to the top. :wink:


I do like how the search is called egosearch when you click on view your posts.

User avatar
baw703916
Posts: 6644
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 1:10 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by baw703916 » Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:08 pm

tecmage wrote:
I do like how the search is called egosearch when you click on view your posts.


Ha! I hadn't noticed that. Well played, Alex and LadyGeek! :happy
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

User avatar
House Blend
Posts: 4245
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by House Blend » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:01 pm

Bump.

Post Reply