U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Time for a drink.
Chaz |
|
“Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen |
|
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This time, it's different.
L.
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
-
- Posts: 2628
- Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:43 am
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Airplane in a vacuum has other issuesGed wrote:If the rate of fall is 32.174 ft/sec^2, yes.nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"
- zaboomafoozarg
- Posts: 2431
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
My IPS tells me to buy every time this thread is bumped.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
*POOF*
Give it a couple more weeks like this and it'll be time to load up on cat food (when it's on sale).
Give it a couple more weeks like this and it'll be time to load up on cat food (when it's on sale).
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
- dbCooperAir
- Posts: 1107
- Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 9:13 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I find the best time to buy cat food is 3 days before it expires, it last much longer than they say.oldzey wrote:*POOF*
Give it a couple more weeks like this and it'll be time to load up on cat food (when it's on sale).
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. |
-Dwight D. Eisenhower-
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Sell! Sell! Sell!*
*To me. At low prices.
*To me. At low prices.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The food or the cat? Hopefully the cat will last more than 3 days after eating the expired food. But the cat may reach it's expiration date as a result of eating the expired food. Oh, geez.dbCooperAir wrote:I find the best time to buy cat food is 3 days before it expires, it last much longer than they say.oldzey wrote:*POOF*
Give it a couple more weeks like this and it'll be time to load up on cat food (when it's on sale).
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
-
- Posts: 1054
- Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:05 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yay for me!
I upped my international from 30% to 40% today so I got more for my money.
Plus I have my Roth contributions (to Total International) on it's way to Vanguard right now. Hopefully it will stay down till they get there.
*Snoopy Dance*
I upped my international from 30% to 40% today so I got more for my money.
Plus I have my Roth contributions (to Total International) on it's way to Vanguard right now. Hopefully it will stay down till they get there.
*Snoopy Dance*
- zaboomafoozarg
- Posts: 2431
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, it is a better time to buy than when prices were higher (unless they go to $0).Beliavsky wrote:Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
I was j/k about my IPS though, I only buy taxable and ira once a year. Plus 401k every two weeks. I am allowed to rebalance whenever I want though.
- InvestorNewb
- Posts: 1663
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:27 am
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
What the [expletive] is going on?
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's fluctuating.InvestorNewb wrote:What the [expletive] is going on?
Chaz |
|
“Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen |
|
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I don't like knowing my portfolio has gone down in value the past week(s).
However, there is some comfort that the market seems to be returning to some semblance of 'normality' by actually responding to actual conditions and events, rather than blindly climbing upward regardless. Hope I feel his way through a correction
However, there is some comfort that the market seems to be returning to some semblance of 'normality' by actually responding to actual conditions and events, rather than blindly climbing upward regardless. Hope I feel his way through a correction
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Look on the bright side. It's now been several days since we've seen a new thread asking "Why not 100 percent equities?"
- nisiprius
- Advisory Board
- Posts: 52211
- Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
- Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
And we're starting to see new threads like "All money in TIPs??"dognose wrote:Look on the bright side. It's now been several days since we've seen a new thread asking "Why not 100 percent equities?"
(The timing isn't actually quite right, that was posted August 1st, but I couldn't resist...)
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
- Clearly_Irrational
- Posts: 3087
- Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:43 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
*shrug* All four of my funds are up YTD, doesn't seem like much to worry about at the moment.
Latest crash indicator reading is only 7.14/100 (over 30 is bad)
Leading indicator swirlogram says we're in an expansion phase
Rail traffic is pretty strong
The current expansion is at least half over but the probability of it ending before January is only 65%
At the moment my IPS says keep your hands off the wheel and continue with buy and hold. If a crash happened now it would be the non-actionable kind.
Latest crash indicator reading is only 7.14/100 (over 30 is bad)
Leading indicator swirlogram says we're in an expansion phase
Rail traffic is pretty strong
The current expansion is at least half over but the probability of it ending before January is only 65%
At the moment my IPS says keep your hands off the wheel and continue with buy and hold. If a crash happened now it would be the non-actionable kind.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Why? Did something happen?chaz wrote:Time for a drink.
Was evidence finally uncovered that proved or disproved the 3-factor Model, and resolved interminable discussions on Bogleheads?
edit; proved, not provide!
Last edited by baw703916 on Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
- zaboomafoozarg
- Posts: 2431
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I felt a great disturbance in the Forum, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.baw703916 wrote:Was evidence finally uncovered that provide or disproved the 3-factor Model, and resolved interminable discussions on Bogleheads?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Smaller my portfolio is.zaboomafoozarg wrote:I felt a great disturbance in the Forum, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
- Rick Ferri
- Posts: 9707
- Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:40 am
- Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
- Contact:
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Volatility is your friend; embrace it!
Rick Ferri
Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
- restandinvest
- Posts: 9
- Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:03 pm
- Location: Northern Colorado
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Some call it a freefall, others call it a sale. Last time I drove by my favorite store and the sign said "Clearance sale today" it wasn't time to get mad, it was time to buy!
“As I have earlier noted, the most important things in life and in business can’t be measured...It is character, not numbers, that make the world go ‘round." John Bogle
- nisiprius
- Advisory Board
- Posts: 52211
- Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
- Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Volatility is not my friend. But I believe that "If you want the rainbow, you must have the rain." If you want the risk premium, you must take the risk. Risk as in risk. Real risk. Risk as in "might take that risk and NOT get the reward," because if you were sure to get the reward, well, that wouldn't be risk, would it?Rick Ferri wrote:Volatility is your friend; embrace it!
Rick Ferri
(I do not believe in the rebalancing fairy. I don't want to debate that beyond a) insisting that there IS a DEBATE, and b) pointing out the measured language that William J. Bernstein has been using lately. "Is this really true? Probably." Strong words, indeed!)
William J. Bernstein wrote:Is there any reason to believe that, on average, rebalancing will help more than it hurts? Not if we believe that market movements are random. After all, we rebalance with the hope that an asset with past higher/lower than average returns will have future lower/higher than average returns.
Is this actually true? Probably. Recall that over short periods of time asset classes display momentum, but that over periods of time over a year or longer tend to mean-revert....
Last edited by nisiprius on Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:37 am, edited 6 times in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
dognose wrote:Look on the bright side. It's now been several days since we've seen a new thread asking "Why not 100 percent equities?"
And some people are still worried about their bond funds, as if those were the volatile assets that could sink their portfolios.
-
- Posts: 5463
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:56 am
- Location: North Carolina
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
+1Beliavsky wrote:Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
- dbCooperAir
- Posts: 1107
- Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 9:13 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The news guys are falling all over themselves this AM predicting another bad day in the market, something like "all predictors this AM are pointing to another bad day in the market"
They do have a 50/50 chance of being right, about as good of odds as the weather guys
I'm always amazed by the news people trying to predict what going happen, its free cheap entertainment.
They do have a 50/50 chance of being right, about as good of odds as the weather guys
I'm always amazed by the news people trying to predict what going happen, its free cheap entertainment.
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. |
-Dwight D. Eisenhower-
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
+2johnep wrote:+1Beliavsky wrote:Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
There are S&P 500 futures that trade overnight, so a prediction made in the AM can be quite accurate.dbCooperAir wrote:The news guys are falling all over themselves this AM predicting another bad day in the market, something like "all predictors this AM are pointing to another bad day in the market"
They do have a 50/50 chance of being right, about as good of odds as the weather guys
I'm always amazed by the news people trying to predict what going happen, its free cheap entertainment.
-
- Posts: 536
- Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:34 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I think there is a subtle difference between "time the market" phrase, which means predicting the up and down of the market, and "buy when stocks fall" phrase, which means the obvious falling that triggers a purchase.johnep wrote:+1Beliavsky wrote:Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No, it's market timing.oragne lovre wrote:I think there is a subtle difference between "time the market" phrase, which means predicting the up and down of the market, and "buy when stocks fall" phrase, which means the obvious falling that triggers a purchase.johnep wrote:+1Beliavsky wrote:Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
-
- Posts: 2628
- Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:43 am
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Actuall the weather people do a far better job predicting today than the stock pickers.dbCooperAir wrote: They do have a 50/50 chance of being right, about as good of odds as the weather guys .
-
- Posts: 2628
- Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:43 am
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
no, its not.Just like indexing is not stock picking. rebalancing is not market timing.visualguy wrote:No, it's market timing.oragne lovre wrote:I think there is a subtle difference between "time the market" phrase, which means predicting the up and down of the market, and "buy when stocks fall" phrase, which means the obvious falling that triggers a purchase.johnep wrote:+1Beliavsky wrote:Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'm not sure what evidence we have that the markets are responding to actual conditions and events more now than before. They were responding to something when they went up (perhaps or perhaps not too much) and they are responding to something now while they go down (perhaps or perhaps not too much). I think it's pretty hard to explain the day to day and week to week swings in the market.countdown wrote:I don't like knowing my portfolio has gone down in value the past week(s).
However, there is some comfort that the market seems to be returning to some semblance of 'normality' by actually responding to actual conditions and events, rather than blindly climbing upward regardless. Hope I feel his way through a correction
I do like how the market section of papers always try to attribute the day's movements to something. I noticed the other day a headline that said something like, Markets Drop on Anxiety about Russian Sanctions Against Europe and U.S. Then skipping over to the front page of the NY Times, the latest article about sanctions has everyone in Europe shrugging and saying the sanctions are no big deal, represent a tiny bit of their export market, and are just going to make grocery shopping more expensive for Russians.
Anyway, as someone I heard or read once said, the only true explanation is: The squiggly line went up (down) today.
- bertilak
- Posts: 10725
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:23 pm
- Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Perhaps you had better see this analysis for a more complete understanding: the blue linecb474 wrote:Anyway, as someone I heard or read once said, the only true explanation is: The squiggly line went up (down) today.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Interestingly, Bernstein's recent rebalancing advice is to rebalance once per year or even less often because rebalancing into assets that performed poorly over the past year adds negative momentum to your portfolio. Makes sense to me.
nisiprius wrote:Volatility is not my friend. But I believe that "If you want the rainbow, you must have the rain." If you want the risk premium, you must take the risk. Risk as in risk. Real risk. Risk as in "might take that risk and NOT get the reward," because if you were sure to get the reward, well, that wouldn't be risk, would it?Rick Ferri wrote:Volatility is your friend; embrace it!
Rick Ferri
(I do not believe in the rebalancing fairy. I don't want to debate that beyond a) insisting that there IS a DEBATE, and b) pointing out the measured language that William J. Bernstein has been using lately. "Is this really true? Probably." Strong words, indeed!)William J. Bernstein wrote:Is there any reason to believe that, on average, rebalancing will help more than it hurts? Not if we believe that market movements are random. After all, we rebalance with the hope that an asset with past higher/lower than average returns will have future lower/higher than average returns.
Is this actually true? Probably. Recall that over short periods of time asset classes display momentum, but that over periods of time over a year or longer tend to mean-revert....
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Both those people are wrong and acting rashly on either sentiment is misguidedrestandinvest wrote:Some call it a freefall, others call it a sale.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
They can be accurate of the open if they are watching morning futures trade - not particularly accurate in predicting the direction at closingKetawa wrote:There are S&P 500 futures that trade overnight, so a prediction made in the AM can be quite accurate.dbCooperAir wrote:The news guys are falling all over themselves this AM predicting another bad day in the market, something like "all predictors this AM are pointing to another bad day in the market"
They do have a 50/50 chance of being right, about as good of odds as the weather guys
I'm always amazed by the news people trying to predict what going happen, its free cheap entertainment.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Buying when stocks go down because 'it's a great time to buy' isn't rebalancing unless you are also always selling when they go up by the same amount. Rebalancing is based on relative performance of your assets - not absolute performance of stocks.Professor Emeritus wrote:no, its not.Just like indexing is not stock picking. rebalancing is not market timing.visualguy wrote:No, it's market timing.oragne lovre wrote:I think there is a subtle difference between "time the market" phrase, which means predicting the up and down of the market, and "buy when stocks fall" phrase, which means the obvious falling that triggers a purchase.johnep wrote:+1Beliavsky wrote:Lots of Bogleheads seem to simultaneously hold the following contradictory views:
(1) You can't time the market.
(2) When stocks fall, it's a great time to buy.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I've enjoyed this thread so much. I look back and see how I've grown as an investor just since when it first started.
One of my friends yesterday told me that since the market was down so much these past weeks it must be a good time to put a bunch more money in. I asked him how much it was down and he said over 10%. I just checked and all my funds are still up for the year.
One of my friends yesterday told me that since the market was down so much these past weeks it must be a good time to put a bunch more money in. I asked him how much it was down and he said over 10%. I just checked and all my funds are still up for the year.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
- nisiprius
- Advisory Board
- Posts: 52211
- Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
- Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I just checked and the Dow closed at 17,024.21 on July 7th, and it seems to be 16,431.59 at this instant, and (16,431.59 - 17,024.21) / 17,024.21 = -592.62 / 17,024.21 = 0.0348 = down 3.48%.ofcmetz wrote:I've enjoyed this thread so much. I look back and see how I've grown as an investor just since when it first started.
One of my friends yesterday told me that since the market was down so much these past weeks it must be a good time to put a bunch more money in. I asked him how much it was down and he said over 10%. I just checked and all my funds are still up for the year.
That's not 10%. I wonder where he got that number.
Or is this one of these "don't be a nerd, the point is, it's DOWN" deals?
It closed at 16,576.66 on December 31, 2013, so it's only down 0.88% year-to-date.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
For "the year" and the "past weeks" somehow don't relate, ofcmetz.ofcmetz wrote:One of my friends yesterday told me that since the market was down so much these past weeks it must be a good time to put a bunch more money in. I asked him how much it was down and he said over 10%. I just checked and all my funds are still up for the year.
That said, I just looked at Vanguard VFINX -- in turn, looking at the S&P 500 Index return -- and Vanguard shows the Index:
- a. July 2014 ("past weeks") monthly return at -1.38%.
b. 3-month ("past weeks") return through 7/31/2014 at +3.02%.
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Time for some Acme Bonds.chaz wrote:Time for a drink.
Coyote_falls.gif [Embedded animated GIF image removed by admin LadyGeek. This is the link to the image.]
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
YDNAL wrote:For "the year" and the "past weeks" somehow don't relate, ofcmetz.ofcmetz wrote:One of my friends yesterday told me that since the market was down so much these past weeks it must be a good time to put a bunch more money in. I asked him how much it was down and he said over 10%. I just checked and all my funds are still up for the year.
That said, I just looked at Vanguard VFINX -- in turn, looking at the S&P 500 Index return -- and Vanguard shows the Index:ps. I can't believe this 2011 thread is still around.
- a. July 2014 ("past weeks") monthly return at -1.38%.
b. 3-month ("past weeks") return through 7/31/2014 at +3.02%.
Yup, I agree it was a stretch. I guess I should have related more of the conversation.
I was referring to it to show that people's perceptions about what the market has done can be for off from the truth. He said that he watches the market every day and it has gone done a lot. When I asked how much he said "over 10%". He then related how all the people at his work were moving their G fund into the stock funds to buy while the market was down so much this year. sigh. The media can cause things to seem overblown and give people false impressions.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's interesting how people "anchor" themselves at some recent market high, discounting all the gains of recent years.
L.
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
- nisiprius
- Advisory Board
- Posts: 52211
- Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
- Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The point is that in this case they don't even seem to have done that. The top so far was 17,068.26 on July 3rd. It is currently at 16,518.45. That's only 3.23% below the high for the year.Leeraar wrote:It's interesting how people "anchor" themselves at some recent market high, discounting all the gains of recent years.
L.
I can't imagine where the 10% came from. The NASDAQ high appears to have been 4485.93 on July 3rd, 4,368.95 so it is only down 2.6% from the high.
Maybe they heard some guru predicting a 10% drop and confused it with actual events?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Or maybe they're just adding several 2 & 3% drops they vaguely remember together.
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. |
-- "Libra", Don DeLillo
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I don't anchor myself with reference to the latest or highest highs in the equities markets, but rather with reference to:
(a) my entire portfolio value considering the entire AA (stocks, bonds, real estate, stable value, etc.), and
(b) end of the the previous year.
While I would like my portfolio to go steadily up, instead of the actual +3.7% ytd, I don't consider my trajectory to have been downward despite the recent retracements in the stock markets.
(a) my entire portfolio value considering the entire AA (stocks, bonds, real estate, stable value, etc.), and
(b) end of the the previous year.
While I would like my portfolio to go steadily up, instead of the actual +3.7% ytd, I don't consider my trajectory to have been downward despite the recent retracements in the stock markets.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Every fund we own is up between 2-17% for the year, except for a crappy high-fee actively managed fund that is regularly emptied out in my wife's SIMPLE IRA. I'm not sure what all the fuss is about. I also don't see how people think that things are 'on sale' due to these minor drops. Rebalancing bands are fine for me, rather than deluding myself into thinking that a tiny drop to a price equivalent to a few months ago represents a bargain price.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
- Taylor Larimore
- Posts: 32842
- Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
- Location: Miami FL
A lifetime lesson
Bogleheads:
I began investing in 1950 when the S&P 500 Index was under 20. Now it is over 1,900 (not including dividends).
I should have simply bought the market and stayed-the-course.
Best wishes.
Taylor
I began investing in 1950 when the S&P 500 Index was under 20. Now it is over 1,900 (not including dividends).
I should have simply bought the market and stayed-the-course.
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Help me! I've fallen and I can't get up... Oh wait.
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain