New ibond rates for nov 2013
New ibond rates for nov 2013
Has anyone seen the new rates for ibonds? I know they usually come out by the 15th of the month prior (maybe the government shutdown). I looked around the TD website and couldn't find anything new.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
............
Last edited by HueyLD on Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Any guesses on what the rate will be? Higher or lower than the current rate?
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
The last 5 months have been low. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000 ... w=pct_1mthRainier wrote:Any guesses on what the rate will be? Higher or lower than the current rate?
tfb guesses it'll be slightly down. http://thefinancebuff.com/september-cpi ... er-30.html
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Sure, I can guess. The fixed will stay at zero and the inflation component will be lower because inflation has been lower.Rainier wrote:Any guesses on what the rate will be? Higher or lower than the current rate?
edit:
According to I Bond Info's calculation http://www.ibonds.info/I-Bonds-and-CPI-U.aspx the inflation component will be 1.53%.
Forget that. The site's data has not been updated for the current CPIs
Last edited by Sheepdog on Sat Oct 19, 2013 4:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered you will never grow. (Ralph Waldo Emerson)
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
As the saying goes, your guess is as good as mine. Why don't you start us off? What's your guess?Rainier wrote:Any guesses on what the rate will be? Higher or lower than the current rate?
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
The September 2013 CPI-U will be announced on Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 8:30 AM. It was originally scheduled for October 16, I think, but the shutdown obviously threw a wrench in that timeline.
So that won't leave a lot of time to make your decision to buy in October vs November !
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
So that won't leave a lot of time to make your decision to buy in October vs November !
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (interest rates).
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
If you setup an order for 10/31 do you get that date or does it take a day or two to clear?LK2012 wrote:The September 2013 CPI-U will be announced on Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 8:30 AM. It was originally scheduled for October 16, I think, but the shutdown obviously threw a wrench in that timeline.
So that won't leave a lot of time to make your decision to buy in October vs November !
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
My understanding (and my experience) is that the scheduled transaction date is the effective date of the bond, unless your selected date is a weekend or federal holiday. But what seems to be overlooked is the nature of how I-Bond interest rates are implemented. Upon purchase if anI-Bond, you are guaranteed 6 months of interest at the stated rate on the execution day of the bond. However, 6 months after purchase, it doesn't skip to the then-current rate. You then receive the rate based on your fixed component (0.0%, which isn't changing in the next 2 weeks) and the "next-in-line" inflation component. Buy today, you get an I-bond earning 1.18% for 6 months, then whatever the next rate happens to be. If it comes to be 1.58%, no worries, you'll get that rate for 6 months after biding your time for the 1st 6 months. Lower, say at .78%? Well shoot, you'll be stuck with the lower rate 6 months from now.Sammy_M wrote:If you setup an order for 10/31 do you get that date or does it take a day or two to clear?LK2012 wrote:The September 2013 CPI-U will be announced on Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 8:30 AM. It was originally scheduled for October 16, I think, but the shutdown obviously threw a wrench in that timeline.
So that won't leave a lot of time to make your decision to buy in October vs November !
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
BL: Not worth the heartache. The difference in interest gained over 6 months on no more than $10k is meaningless in the long run, which all of us here are known for -- our exceeding faith in the long view, vs. day-to-day timing... So as an (admittedly recent) Boglehead, I say if you want/need/plan to buy some I-Bonds, just buy them now and start earning your interest payments. You'll get (or be stuck with) the new rate in 6 months anyway. My purchases are in....are yours?
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Or since they get paid for the "furlough", perhaps they will be working extra hours to make up for the missed time and it won't take 16 days to catch up?HueyLD wrote:Since federal employees were furloughed for 16 days, it would be reasonable to guess that the new I bond rates will be announced 16 days after the original date.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
There are two issues that I do not know the answers to.
First, past experience shows that an "initiated" purchase will take two business days to process. So if you initiate a purchase on October 30th, The bond's purchase date would normally be November 1st. However, in one month in the recent past (for the first time in my knowledge), Treasury Direct felt a large number of people did not understand the normal delay, so they made an exception and granted those purchases same month purchase date.
Maybe someone could inquire of Treasure Direct that given the extremely unique circumstances (CPI-U released 10/30), would they grant an exception and make purchases made by 10/31 to have an October purchase month. No guarantees, but certainly a possibility.
Second, given Geist's experience of scheduled purchases, could you schedule a purchase for October 31st, and cancel if necessary when the CPI-U is released on October 30th?
First, past experience shows that an "initiated" purchase will take two business days to process. So if you initiate a purchase on October 30th, The bond's purchase date would normally be November 1st. However, in one month in the recent past (for the first time in my knowledge), Treasury Direct felt a large number of people did not understand the normal delay, so they made an exception and granted those purchases same month purchase date.
Maybe someone could inquire of Treasure Direct that given the extremely unique circumstances (CPI-U released 10/30), would they grant an exception and make purchases made by 10/31 to have an October purchase month. No guarantees, but certainly a possibility.
Second, given Geist's experience of scheduled purchases, could you schedule a purchase for October 31st, and cancel if necessary when the CPI-U is released on October 30th?
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
I wouldn't worry too much about it since the new inflation component rate is likely to be less than the current rate, and you'll cycle around to the new rate 6 months down the road for October bonds anyways. So really the question of buying now or buying in November only affects the interest earned over the first 6 months. We're talking about at most a difference of $60 interest over the first 6 months on a $10,000 I-Bond, which would only come into play if the November inflation component were 0%.
$60 is nothing to sneeze at, but neither is it much to lose sleep over given the size of the I-Bond involved. I think it's unlikely the November inflation component would be 0% (although I certainly agree with the prediction that the fixed component will be 0%), so the "loss" over the first 6 months is likely to be less.
Now, if the inflation component were predicted to be higher (or if the fixed component was predicted to go above 0%), then I think the timing of the purchase would be more important. You'd get a better return by deferring the purchase to the next month. But buying early when the interest component is going down doesn't do much but delay the inevitable.
$60 is nothing to sneeze at, but neither is it much to lose sleep over given the size of the I-Bond involved. I think it's unlikely the November inflation component would be 0% (although I certainly agree with the prediction that the fixed component will be 0%), so the "loss" over the first 6 months is likely to be less.
Now, if the inflation component were predicted to be higher (or if the fixed component was predicted to go above 0%), then I think the timing of the purchase would be more important. You'd get a better return by deferring the purchase to the next month. But buying early when the interest component is going down doesn't do much but delay the inevitable.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
I apologize for slightly hijacking this thread, but I figured this is the most relevant place to ask. If you buy $10k worth of ibonds prior to the New Year, could you turn around and by an additional $10k at the beginning of next year?
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Yes, $10K is a calendar year limit.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
I like to ask the Treasury Department questions about savings bonds.
The principal amount of book-entry savings bonds that you may acquire in any calendar year is limited ...
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Thanks jeffyscott, I appreciate your help.jeffyscott wrote:Yes, $10K is a calendar year limit.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
In the past two years it was possible to buy an additional $5,000 with your federal income tax refund. You'd have to overpay to begin with to get that much back. The option of I Bonds for a refund existed before the 2011 tax year, but until then it didn't increase the allowable limit.morbster wrote:I apologize for slightly hijacking this thread, but I figured this is the most relevant place to ask. If you buy $10k worth of ibonds prior to the New Year, could you turn around and by an additional $10k at the beginning of next year?
I've checked just this moment and the best advance indicator I know of, the final 2013 form 8888, has not yet been posted by the IRS. There's a draft from June, but it says right on it that it's not reliable.
Nothing stops the treasury secretary from changing the maximum annual limit, up or down, including to zero. Congress's law says it's entirely at his discretion.
We'll have to wait and see how things go.
PJW
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Any updates? On the rates? I already bought 2k this month, if the rate goes down/up ...ok have 2k more for this year.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Will be announced 10/30/13, it is said...nwffdiver wrote:Any updates? On the rates? I already bought 2k this month, if the rate goes down/up ...ok have 2k more for this year.
Last edited by Sheepdog on Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Don't forget that if you buy on or before the last date of this month, you'll earn a full month's worth of interest for as little as one day. Not huge at the current rates, but still not something to overlook.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
The I-Bond rate based on the March-August CPI-U would be 0.94%. That assumes a Fixed Rate of 0%.
The September CPI-U should be available next week.
The September CPI-U should be available next week.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
The fixed rate portion of the I-series bonds are always issued on May 1 and November 1:HueyLD wrote:Since federal employees were furloughed for 16 days, it would be reasonable to guess that the new I bond rates will be announced 16 days after the original date.nwffdiver wrote:Has anyone seen the new rates for ibonds? I know they usually come out by the 15th of the month prior (maybe the government shutdown). I looked around the TD website and couldn't find anything new.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/pres ... atespr.htm
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
That's funny....not going to happen. Can you imagine this situation in industry....no pay and then the workers would need to figure out a way to hit the deadline.jeffyscott wrote:Or since they get paid for the "furlough", perhaps they will be working extra hours to make up for the missed time and it won't take 16 days to catch up?HueyLD wrote:Since federal employees were furloughed for 16 days, it would be reasonable to guess that the new I bond rates will be announced 16 days after the original date.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
What do you mean no pay. They all received 100% pay retroactively. They essentially received extra vacations days.HopeToGolf wrote:That's funny....not going to happen. Can you imagine this situation in industry....no pay and then the workers would need to figure out a way to hit the deadline.jeffyscott wrote:Or since they get paid for the "furlough", perhaps they will be working extra hours to make up for the missed time and it won't take 16 days to catch up?HueyLD wrote:Since federal employees were furloughed for 16 days, it would be reasonable to guess that the new I bond rates will be announced 16 days after the original date.
If that situation happen in industry (wait it did, I worked for a few startups). I would (and did) consider it a professional challenge to get the work out ASAP.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
I'm sure Treasury views it the same way, but we are headed off track here.Spirit Rider wrote:What do you mean no pay. They all received 100% pay retroactively. They essentially received extra vacations days.HopeToGolf wrote:That's funny....not going to happen. Can you imagine this situation in industry....no pay and then the workers would need to figure out a way to hit the deadline.jeffyscott wrote:Or since they get paid for the "furlough", perhaps they will be working extra hours to make up for the missed time and it won't take 16 days to catch up?HueyLD wrote:Since federal employees were furloughed for 16 days, it would be reasonable to guess that the new I bond rates will be announced 16 days after the original date.
If that situation happen in industry (wait it did, I worked for a few startups). I would (and did) consider it a professional challenge to get the work out ASAP.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Can anyone tell me the new iBond rate for May 2014?
[I thought I would get an early start on what inevitably will be a new thread next week.]
[I thought I would get an early start on what inevitably will be a new thread next week.]
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
You stole my thunder, sscritic. I had already written that post, and it was waiting in my drafts folder for Nov 1st.sscritic wrote:Can anyone tell me the new iBond rate for May 2014?
[I thought I would get an early start on what inevitably will be a new thread next week.]
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
I could tell you, but then you'd have to kill me.sscritic wrote:Can anyone tell me the new iBond rate for May 2014?
[I thought I would get an early start on what inevitably will be a new thread next week.]
PJW
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Low inflation? Baloney. Its the government cheating investors out of higher returns to save money themselves. Costs for food, gas and insurance keep skyrocketing and the saver gets the shaft as usual.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Do you have a better alternative?
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Conspiracy theories are off-topic, but enough people believe this particular one that it is worth addressing occasionally.crowd79 wrote:Low inflation? Baloney. Its the government cheating investors out of higher returns to save money themselves. Costs for food, gas and insurance keep skyrocketing and the saver gets the shaft as usual.
US inflation rates are based on publicly available definitions and publicly available pricing data. If you are going to make a claim that they are understating the inflation rate, you need to show what is wrong with the definition, what's wrong with the prices, or where they have miscalculated. There have been attempts to do this, but none of the so-proclaimed debunkers have stood up to the slightest scrutiny.
This has been discussed previously, see for example:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=73943
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=73073
This is not to say that your personal inflation rate is an exact match for the national rate. Just that there is no evidence at all that the national rates are being manipulated.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
It's funny how the people who complain about inflation post-2008 never complain about how low their mortgage rates are or mention the fact that gas today is only more expensive compared to where it was in the middle of the recession rather than before the recession.Alex Frakt wrote: Conspiracy theories are off-topic, but enough people believe this particular one that it is worth addressing occasionally.
US inflation rates are based on publicly available definitions and publicly available pricing data. If you are going to make a claim that they are understating the inflation rate, you need to show what is wrong with the definition, what's wrong with the prices, or where they have miscalculated. There have been attempts to do this, but none of the so-proclaimed debunkers have stood up to the slightest scrutiny.
This has been discussed previously, see for example:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=73943
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=73073
This is not to say that your personal inflation rate is an exact match for the national rate. Just that there is no evidence at all that the national rates are being manipulated.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
People keep coming up with inflation shenanigans. I don't see it...We drive the car about the same....heat and light the house about the same.... Our personal inflation?. Here are a few items comparing the last 5 years. So far in 2013, it seems to be following.
I WILL ADD THE TOTAL OF ALL MY SPENDING AT THE BOTTOM WHICH INCLUDES EVERYTHING WHERE MY MONEY GOES (EXCEPT AUTO PURCHASES) INCLUDING TAXES, DONATIONS, VACATIONS, HOUSE MAINTENANCE, WINE, WOMEN AND ALL OTHER ENTERTAINMENT and we eat out a lot, attend lots of concerts and shows, professional football, etc. This is for 2 people. The one expense we don't have much of is income tax, plus of course, interest payments.
ITEM AND YEAR...........2012..............2011.................2010.................2009.....................2008
GROCERIES................5342..............5358.................5183.................5627.....................5294
GASOLINE..................1935..............2222.................1643.................1214....................1798
ELECTRICITY...............971...............929...................908..................835......................832
TELEPHONE & DSL........959...............917...................999..................1096.....................1010
GAS.........................762...............988...................920..................1193.....................1219
ALL SPENDING.......... 58,871............57,598...............66,788...............65,089...................63,723
CPI-U, when compared to my expenses, looks fine to me.
I WILL ADD THE TOTAL OF ALL MY SPENDING AT THE BOTTOM WHICH INCLUDES EVERYTHING WHERE MY MONEY GOES (EXCEPT AUTO PURCHASES) INCLUDING TAXES, DONATIONS, VACATIONS, HOUSE MAINTENANCE, WINE, WOMEN AND ALL OTHER ENTERTAINMENT and we eat out a lot, attend lots of concerts and shows, professional football, etc. This is for 2 people. The one expense we don't have much of is income tax, plus of course, interest payments.
ITEM AND YEAR...........2012..............2011.................2010.................2009.....................2008
GROCERIES................5342..............5358.................5183.................5627.....................5294
GASOLINE..................1935..............2222.................1643.................1214....................1798
ELECTRICITY...............971...............929...................908..................835......................832
TELEPHONE & DSL........959...............917...................999..................1096.....................1010
GAS.........................762...............988...................920..................1193.....................1219
ALL SPENDING.......... 58,871............57,598...............66,788...............65,089...................63,723
CPI-U, when compared to my expenses, looks fine to me.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Unfortunately, single-point data is meaningless here. I'm sure there are others that can post figures that reflect a much higher personal inflation rate. The fact remains that nationally, inflation has been largely irrelevant in the past several years.Sheepdog wrote:People keep coming up with inflation shenanigans. I don't see it...We drive the car about the same....heat and light the house about the same.... Our personal inflation?. Here are a few items comparing the last 5 years. So far in 2013, it seems to be following.
I WILL ADD THE TOTAL OF ALL MY SPENDING AT THE BOTTOM WHICH INCLUDES EVERYTHING WHERE MY MONEY GOES (EXCEPT AUTO PURCHASES) INCLUDING TAXES, DONATIONS, VACATIONS, HOUSE MAINTENANCE, WINE, WOMEN AND ALL OTHER ENTERTAINMENT and we eat out a lot, attend lots of concerts and shows, professional football, etc. This is for 2 people. The one expense we don't have much of is income tax, plus of course, interest payments.
ITEM AND YEAR...........2012..............2011.................2010.................2009.....................2008
GROCERIES................5342..............5358.................5183.................5627.....................5294
GASOLINE..................1935..............2222.................1643.................1214....................1798
ELECTRICITY...............971...............929...................908..................835......................832
TELEPHONE & DSL........959...............917...................999..................1096.....................1010
GAS.........................762...............988...................920..................1193.....................1219
ALL SPENDING.......... 58,871............57,598...............66,788...............65,089...................63,723
CPI-U, when compared to my expenses, looks fine to me.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
0% real.neurosphere wrote:sscritic wrote:Can anyone tell me the new iBond rate for May 2014?
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
I had set up an order in advance for today (10/29). The funds were withdrawn from my bank this morning, and checking my Treasury Direct acct, I see that the new Ibond is already registered, with an effective date of 10/1.Sammy_M wrote: If you setup an order for 10/31 do you get that date or does it take a day or two to clear?
YMMV.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
The answer that never gets oldtaegirain3 wrote:0% real.neurosphere wrote:sscritic wrote:Can anyone tell me the new iBond rate for May 2014?
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Just read my local newspaper today. Electricity rates are going up an eye-popping 25% over the course of the next 3 years, or 8.5% per year.
Article:
http://www.miningjournal.net/page/conte ... l?nav=5006
Yeah, tell me there's no inflation or cost of living increase.
Article:
http://www.miningjournal.net/page/conte ... l?nav=5006
Yeah, tell me there's no inflation or cost of living increase.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Actually, 8.5% a year is 27.7% over 3 years. Don't forget the magic of compounding. This is a website devoted to financial education so we shouldn't overlook the basics.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
crowd79 wrote:Just read my local newspaper today. Electricity rates are going up an eye-popping 25% over the course of the next 3 years, or 8.5% per year.
Article:
http://www.miningjournal.net/page/conte ... l?nav=5006
Yeah, tell me there's no inflation or cost of living increase.
Commissioner Michael Coyne noted the BLP has had only one increase in the past 30 years.
So, that makes your long term figure for inflation in this particular commodity <1% per year, over the past 30 plus the next 3 years.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Yes, but what percentage of your total expenses are your electricity expense. In my case it is about 1%. So it has a marginal effect on my personal inflation rate. Anecdotal information is just that anecdotal.crowd79 wrote:Just read my local newspaper today. Electricity rates are going up an eye-popping 25% over the course of the next 3 years, or 8.5% per year.
Article:
http://www.miningjournal.net/page/conte ... l?nav=5006
Yeah, tell me there's no inflation or cost of living increase.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
September CPI-U is 234.149
March CPI-U was 232.773
That makes the next semiannual rate 0.59% (1.18% annualized), which is identical to the current semiannual rate.
March CPI-U was 232.773
That makes the next semiannual rate 0.59% (1.18% annualized), which is identical to the current semiannual rate.
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Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Thanks.September CPI-U is 234.149
March CPI-U was 232.773
Last edited by tipswatcher on Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
TIPS: Perfect investment for imperfect times?
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
If the variable portion is going to be same, it might be worth to wait and purchase in November with a small probability of the fixed rate will be greater than 0%. Yes you will loose one month interest but that is the price you pay for the small probability.
Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Because it is rounded to two decimal places, the same rate has occurred several times. (1.53% even occurred three times.) This is the second time the semi-annual inflation rate has repeated in the next 6-month period. The other was 0.86% announced Nov 1998 and again May 1999.amfox1 wrote:That makes the next semiannual rate 0.59% (1.18% annualized), which is identical to the current semiannual rate.
Code: Select all
Announced Month Rate
--------- ----- ----
05-01-2009 -2.78%
05-01-2002 0.28%
11-01-2010 Nov 0.37%
05-01-2006 0.50%
11-01-2003 Nov 0.54%
05-01-2013 0.59% <-- dup
11-01-2013 Nov 0.59% <-- dup
09-01-1998 0.62%
05-01-2010 0.77%
11-01-1998 Nov 0.86% <-- dup
05-01-1999 0.86% <-- dup
11-01-2012 Nov 0.88%
05-01-2012 1.10%
11-01-2001 Nov 1.19% <-- dup
05-01-2004 1.19% <-- dup
05-01-2007 1.21%
11-01-2002 Nov 1.23%
11-01-2004 Nov 1.33%
05-01-2001 1.44%
11-01-2000 Nov 1.52%
11-01-2007 Nov 1.53% <-- dup
11-01-2009 Nov 1.53% <-- dup
11-01-2011 Nov 1.53% <-- dup
11-01-2006 Nov 1.55%
11-01-1999 Nov 1.76%
05-01-2003 1.77%
05-01-2005 1.79%
05-01-2000 1.91%
05-01-2011 2.30%
05-01-2008 2.42%
11-01-2008 Nov 2.46%
11-01-2005 Nov 2.85%