U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Nah!!!Browser wrote:Does nearly 600 points off the DOW in two days qualify as "freefall"?
579.86 ÷ 15,318.23 = 3.785%
Code: Select all
Date Value Daily change
06/20/13 14,738.34 -373.82 (currently)
06/19/13 15,112.19 -206.04
06/18/13 15,318.23 138.38
06/17/13 15,179.85 109.67
06/14/13 15,070.18 -105.90
06/13/13 15,176.08 180.85
12/31/12 13,104.14 ---
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
VNQ (REIT) was in free fall today. Together with EM, Pacific markets and international REITs.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Perhaps we need a common definition. Here's one possibility:
free fall - a sudden sharp decrease in some quantity.
This definition encompasses both time and magnitude; e.g., a 3.8% drop in the DOW index occurring over a period of 2 months might not qualify, but a 3.8% drop in 2 days might. Perhaps, at least we should consider getting a memo ready.
free fall - a sudden sharp decrease in some quantity.
This definition encompasses both time and magnitude; e.g., a 3.8% drop in the DOW index occurring over a period of 2 months might not qualify, but a 3.8% drop in 2 days might. Perhaps, at least we should consider getting a memo ready.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
In other forums, resurrecting old threads is frowned upon. I think it's a great tool for this forum. I've learned so much by reading what people actually had to say in, say, late 2008 until March 2009, or in 2012 when there was a dip, etc. Being able to see what people were actually saying/thinking when they had no idea what would happen tomorrow.. it's so easy to look at historical data, but not so easy to put it into context.
Stock goes up, stock goes down. Stock goes up, stock goes down. -- Homer J. Simpson (paraphrased)
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
^
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I agree, + it keeps the thread count down of the sky is falling type of threads. It maybe time to start a common bond falling thread
^
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I agree, + it keeps the thread count down of the sky is falling type of threads. It maybe time to start a common bond falling thread
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
TISM had an RBD too. International stocks: diversify yourself against high returns.hsv_climber wrote:VNQ (REIT) was in free fall today. Together with EM, Pacific markets and international REITs.
Nadie Sabe Nada
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"Browser wrote:Does nearly 600 points off the DOW in two days qualify as "freefall"?
Let's look at the latest chart... now, where did I put my glasses...
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I believe Bogleheads are buckled in.nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"
Could you please post the chart for 14, 15, ... Blurry is fine.
Keith
Déjà Vu is not a prediction
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Worst flight ever. Took of in 2008, random turbulent episodes, and still no destination in sight.umfundi wrote:I believe Bogleheads are buckled in.nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"
Keith
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Darn! My US total stock market index fund is only up 12% for the year now. How can I live on that?
Rick Ferri
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The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
They're pinned to the ceiling. Only 14,648 feet to go!nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"Browser wrote:Does nearly 600 points off the DOW in two days qualify as "freefall"?
Let's look at the latest chart... now, where did I put my glasses...
(Yes, I know, that wouldn't happen in freefall but I like the image. I include screaming passengers!)
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If the rate of fall is 32.174 ft/sec^2, yes.nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Rick Ferri wrote:Darn! My US total stock market index fund is only up 12% for the year now. How can I live on that?
Rick Ferri
Stop putting things in perspective
This thread is about running for the hills to avoid the doom!
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Only if that mountain peak you were hoping to clear is at 14,649 feet.If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
+1 for both of y'allofcmetz wrote:Rick Ferri wrote:Darn! My US total stock market index fund is only up 12% for the year now. How can I live on that?
Rick Ferri
Stop putting things in perspective
This thread is about running for the hills to avoid the doom!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Jim Cramer is saying to sit out the market for a week or so because its that uncertain and that bad. S&P 500 went down 1.25% yesterday. Gold is going back up in value. Miley Cyrus has become a ???. Is this the end for stocks?
Just a reminder to everyone to follow their plan no matter what Cyrus has or does not have on.
Edit: Seems it was just a yesterday freefall. False alarm, sorry.
Just a reminder to everyone to follow their plan no matter what Cyrus has or does not have on.
Edit: Seems it was just a yesterday freefall. False alarm, sorry.
Last edited by ofcmetz on Wed Aug 28, 2013 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I wonder when this guy is going to come back and give us more specifics?Trader007 wrote:<Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:38 am>Stock indices should continue down for several months now. Looks like end of February-end of March. Will be more specific later.
"Do not value money for any more nor any less than its worth; it is a good servant but a bad master" - Alexandre Dumas
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The sky is falling!
It's an RBD, etc, etc.
Or, maybe not.
L.
It's an RBD, etc, etc.
Or, maybe not.
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
We are getting snow in south Louisiana right now. That has to be some kind of stock market omen.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was wearing a long-sleeve PJ and a sweater inside the house -- this is South Florida, you know! And, I'm headed North.ofcmetz wrote:We are getting snow in south Louisiana right now. That has to be some kind of stock market omen.
The Dow was at about 11,450 in August 2011 when this thread was initiated by Lbill. Fourteen pages of posts later, the Dow is currently at 16,197.35. It should be a good lesson for anyone with any sort of investing timeframe longer than a couple of days, or months, or years.Lbill [OP] » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:30 pm
DOW is down by over 550 points with a couple hours of trading left. Trading halt on the way?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, but there is a second lesson to be drawn in addition to the one I think you are drawing. Some are already starting to forget what happened in 2011 and see 2009-2013 as if it were a period of steady, Madoff-like, regular 20%/year gains. We are getting increasing numbers of "100% stocks" postings from people who are confident they are risk tolerant and would never sell in a downturn, even when I point out that experienced and well-informed people, including professional wealth managers, did.
I wasn't seriously close to taking any actions in 2011, but I was certainly jittery when Lbill started this thread. Now, I remember in 2008, I was hiking with some friends in Oregon, and (I am proud to say) was in a period of time when I was not paying a lot of attention to the stock market. And she says something to me about being worried about the stock market. And I laughed, and said, "Oh, I don't know, it fluctuates, I don't pay much attention, as long as it stays in the 12,000s." And she gives me a look, and says "It's down to 11,000." And it stayed there for a month or so, and then we all know what happened.
These are my points: first, 2011 did not look any different from the lurch in 2008 that preceded the big dive. In 2011, it would have been a serious mistake to say "Uh-oh, here we go again" and exit the market. But it was completely rational to feel jittery. It was completely rational to wonder if this was 2008 all over again.
If you cannot remember feeling jittery in 2011, then I would check your memories to be sure you are really risk-tolerant and that you haven't just edited out feelings you are now ashamed of having felt.
And while I have no idea what's ahead for the stock market--someone mentioned to me in an email that Bloomberg has used the word "contagion" in emerging markets, sigh... I'm pretty sure that something that will happen in the next couple of years or so is that we will get another sickening downward lurch like the one in 2008 and the one in 2011, and we won't know about that one, either.
I wasn't seriously close to taking any actions in 2011, but I was certainly jittery when Lbill started this thread. Now, I remember in 2008, I was hiking with some friends in Oregon, and (I am proud to say) was in a period of time when I was not paying a lot of attention to the stock market. And she says something to me about being worried about the stock market. And I laughed, and said, "Oh, I don't know, it fluctuates, I don't pay much attention, as long as it stays in the 12,000s." And she gives me a look, and says "It's down to 11,000." And it stayed there for a month or so, and then we all know what happened.
These are my points: first, 2011 did not look any different from the lurch in 2008 that preceded the big dive. In 2011, it would have been a serious mistake to say "Uh-oh, here we go again" and exit the market. But it was completely rational to feel jittery. It was completely rational to wonder if this was 2008 all over again.
If you cannot remember feeling jittery in 2011, then I would check your memories to be sure you are really risk-tolerant and that you haven't just edited out feelings you are now ashamed of having felt.
And while I have no idea what's ahead for the stock market--someone mentioned to me in an email that Bloomberg has used the word "contagion" in emerging markets, sigh... I'm pretty sure that something that will happen in the next couple of years or so is that we will get another sickening downward lurch like the one in 2008 and the one in 2011, and we won't know about that one, either.
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
What do you "think I'm drawing"?...nisiprius wrote:Yes, but there is a second lesson to be drawn in addition to the one I think you are drawing.
- That Stocks are risky and we should hope for compensation over time ?
- That with any timeframe longer than 2 days, 2 months, 2 years, we should look ahead towards the long-term ?
Then you "thought" correctly.
Are you "starting to forget" ? Otherwise, I wouldn't use "we."nisiprius wrote:We are already starting to forget what happened in 2011 and see 2009-2013 as if it were a period of steady, Madoff-like, regular 20%/year gains.
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If I recall correctly, without wading through the 14 pages of this thread, the 2011 downturn was presumably caused by the Eurozone. No one knew at the time that it would be the ECB that calmed the waters eventually and no one now knows what the eventual outcome will be.
I read again this morning rumblings and rumors on the "shadow" banking system in China. For the last several months or maybe a year or so, there seems to be a lot of interest in China's data or maybe more accurately the lack of good data. This may eventually blow up and we will have our next crisis emanating from China. Maybe not.
What we do know is that we will have another downward lurch in equities and it will seem as if things are in free fall. We will have a lot posts about how some intrepid Boglehead rebalanced today, yesterday or last week.
Maybe, if the downturn last several years, we can read how the stock market really was in free fall and we should have known it all along because all of signs were there.
jim
I read again this morning rumblings and rumors on the "shadow" banking system in China. For the last several months or maybe a year or so, there seems to be a lot of interest in China's data or maybe more accurately the lack of good data. This may eventually blow up and we will have our next crisis emanating from China. Maybe not.
What we do know is that we will have another downward lurch in equities and it will seem as if things are in free fall. We will have a lot posts about how some intrepid Boglehead rebalanced today, yesterday or last week.
Maybe, if the downturn last several years, we can read how the stock market really was in free fall and we should have known it all along because all of signs were there.
jim
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Perhaps, but August 2011 was when the credit rating of US were downgraded because of the stand-off in Congress about budget deficits.jimkinny wrote:If I recall correctly, without wading through the 14 pages of this thread, the 2011 downturn was presumably caused by the Eurozone.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/ec ... tive_n.htm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
what is LBill's response to this thread or he's still waiting for the next big drop?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
He has not checked his account since May 2012.
That reminds me of an anecdote from J K Galbraith's book about the Great Crash of 1929. He reported that from 1929 into 1932, the Harvard Economic Club (?) posted monthly, positive, upbeat analyses of the economy and stock market. They ceased publication in June 1932, approximately at the same time the stock market finally bottomed.
That reminds me of an anecdote from J K Galbraith's book about the Great Crash of 1929. He reported that from 1929 into 1932, the Harvard Economic Club (?) posted monthly, positive, upbeat analyses of the economy and stock market. They ceased publication in June 1932, approximately at the same time the stock market finally bottomed.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Good. That's what I thought.YDNAL wrote:What do you "think I'm drawing"?...nisiprius wrote:Yes, but there is a second lesson to be drawn in addition to the one I think you are drawing.
- That Stocks are risky and we should hope for compensation over time ?
- That with any timeframe longer than 2 days, 2 months, 2 years, we should look ahead towards the long-term ?
Then you "thought" correctly.
You are correct. Sorry.Are you "starting to forget" ? Otherwise, I wouldn't use "we."nisiprius wrote:We are already starting to forget what happened in 2011 and see 2009-2013 as if it were a period of steady, Madoff-like, regular 20%/year gains.
For the record, yes, I personally am starting to forget about it. I have to look back and think and read some of my own posts from that time period to recover how I felt.
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was starting to miss this thread
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I see you found your glasses.nisiprius wrote:
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Nisiprius,
No need for apologies. Me thinks, it is important to be reminded that most of us invest for the long(er) term, not a couple of days as in the OP, and that we should plan and be prepared to see things (magnitude may vary) similar to 2008-09, 2011, 2009-13, etc.
With the European crisis, US budget issues, etc., things from 2011-13 could have indeed been different - but here we are anyways!
I've been waiting for those "bad day" threads to start popping-up today.
No need for apologies. Me thinks, it is important to be reminded that most of us invest for the long(er) term, not a couple of days as in the OP, and that we should plan and be prepared to see things (magnitude may vary) similar to 2008-09, 2011, 2009-13, etc.
With the European crisis, US budget issues, etc., things from 2011-13 could have indeed been different - but here we are anyways!
I've been waiting for those "bad day" threads to start popping-up today.
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I tend to use "we" and "you" in messages when I mean "I" or "some people".
Just love those instant explanations. From CBS radio I learn it is all about concerns over currencies of emerging countries. Why didn't they tell me that two days ago?
L.
Just love those instant explanations. From CBS radio I learn it is all about concerns over currencies of emerging countries. Why didn't they tell me that two days ago?
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yep, same here. At least I can predict something.YDNAL wrote:I've been waiting for those "bad day" threads to start popping-up today.
Don't reach for yield.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Chauncey Gardiner anyone?
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Forrest Gump?peppers wrote:Chauncey Gardiner anyone?
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The story of Chance the gardener from "Common Sense on Mutual Funds"
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, yes. Peter Sellers' character in "Being There", who IMO has similarities to the character of Forrest Gump. Unfortunately, I have not read "Common Sense ..." so I did not recognize that allusion.peppers wrote:The story of Chance the gardener from "Common Sense on Mutual Funds"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Being_There
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wow. I didn't know the stock market was in freefall since 2011!! Good thing I didn't pay too much attention to this thread. I would have missed out on the 30% US Stock Market gains in 2013. These drops like we experienced the last two days are never pleasant but are part of investing.
I can't predict the markets but my suspicion is that we will see fewer 100% stock threads in the near future. Too much optimism in the markets worries me. It is actually reassuring to see this "freefall" thread pop up again.
I can't predict the markets but my suspicion is that we will see fewer 100% stock threads in the near future. Too much optimism in the markets worries me. It is actually reassuring to see this "freefall" thread pop up again.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This thread is like an old lost friend
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This friend tends to visit only when he's lost lots of money.Jay69 wrote:This thread is like an old lost friend
Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake |
Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. |
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No,VictoriaF wrote:This friend tends to visit only when he's lost lots of money.Jay69 wrote:This thread is like an old lost friend
Victoria
He visits only when you think, it's different this time. Look at nisiprius' charts: Who lost "lots of money"?
L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Down 260 so far this Monday morning (2/2/14). Not free-falling yet, but getting warmed up.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...technovelist wrote:Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No, there are three states:Browser wrote:If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...technovelist wrote:Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!
1. When there are many threads about 100% or more stocks being the only correct AA, sell.
2. When there are many threads about never being able to retire, why 100% bonds is the only correct AA, etc., buy.
3. The rest of the time, hold.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I do get nervous when there are a lot of 100% stock threads.
I'd say a better "buy" indicator would be the number of "plan-b" threads -- that's real panic.
-K
I'd say a better "buy" indicator would be the number of "plan-b" threads -- that's real panic.
-K
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
There are no threads about being 100% bonds because bonds suck as badly as stocks. "Hold" is the only option left -- kinda like a deer frozen in the headlights because it doesn't know which way to jump. Of course, the deer ends up getting run over while it is standing there doing nothing....technovelist wrote:No, there are three states:Browser wrote:If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...technovelist wrote:Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!
1. When there are many threads about 100% or more stocks being the only correct AA, sell.
2. When there are many threads about never being able to retire, why 100% bonds is the only correct AA, etc., buy.
3. The rest of the time, hold.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wake me up when Total Bond Market recovers it losses.
Or when the S&P breaks below its 200 day moving average.
Or when the S&P breaks below its 200 day moving average.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
TBM has losses? I must be in a different TBM fund.Bustoff wrote:Wake me up when Total Bond Market recovers it losses.
"Do not value money for any more nor any less than its worth; it is a good servant but a bad master" - Alexandre Dumas