That's gotta be embarrassing. Can't wait for the "more specific later" part.Beagler wrote:Here's what happened to the S&P 500 from the date of your prediction to the end of March 2012:Trader007 wrote:Stock indices should continue down for several months now. Looks like end of February-end of March. Will be more specific later.
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
"Do not value money for any more nor any less than its worth; it is a good servant but a bad master" - Alexandre Dumas
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I may be little right now, but I'm still growing...
"Life can only be understood backward; but it must be lived forward." ~ Søren Kierkegaard |
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"You can't connect the dots looking forward; but only by looking backwards." ~ Steve Jobs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Couldn't agree more. If you look carefully, you may also notice the dreaded "Cracked-Open Head with Lopsided Shoulders" formation which invariably indicates imminent market fluctuation.nisiprius wrote:
Furthermore, from August 2011 through today, the plot of the Dow obviously resembles the clarinet trill and upward glissando that open Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue. I hardly need tell you what comes next.
Furthermore, the Dow closed at 12,715.93. Add the digits and you get 28. The divisors of 28 are 1, 2, 4, 7, and 14. Add those divisors and you get... 28! How often does that happen?
Any trader worth his salt should also not miss the Empire State Building formation sitting right in the middle. It's arrival was foretold at the very dawn of Capitalism by no less than Eve Smith herself who declared that the exchange would eventually become self-aware and start communicating with us. Clearly the market is telling us that he/she realizes that he/she is in New York.
Bonus points for those who can also see the famous Sign of the Wiggle. It's sitting there plain as day just waiting to discovered and used in trading strategies by those who are sufficiently perspicacious.
Anakin
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Why not?dave66 wrote:I would be interested to know how many people who believe a few days of market activity, indicate the overall trend of the market... also believe a few hot summer days indicate global warming is guaranteed to doom us all.
My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed. Given her age, it is clear she has been very careful about such things.
Keith
Déjà Vu is not a prediction
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
A measure of stability.nisiprius wrote:Furthermore, from August 2011 through today, the plot of the Dow obviously resembles the clarinet trill and upward glissando that open Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue. I hardly need tell you what comes next.
Greg, retired 8/10.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Shoes on the bed? Oh, please, tell us more. I didn't know that.umfundi wrote:My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed.
I do remember that when we got married, one of the things we really needed was a good set of kitchen knives, but were told that we couldn't ask for them because it's bad luck ever to give a knife as a gift.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
umfundi wrote: My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed.
Uh-oh! Never heard of that either. I habitually put my shoes on the bed getting dressed every morning. Sorry for all the market trouble I must be causing but I doubt I have the will power to change such an ingrained habit. Could you ask your aunt if throwing them over my shoulder onto the bed would work like it does with salt?nisiprius wrote: Shoes on the bed? Oh, please, tell us more. I didn't know that.
On a positive note, I put in a grandkid's 529 contribution this morning because yesterday was a RBD. That usually makes the market bounce right back since it takes at least 2 business days to execute.
JW
Last edited by JW-Retired on Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Retired at Last
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'm glad this thread got resurrected rather than a new one starting.
Anybody want to guess at where we end up today?
Anybody want to guess at where we end up today?
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wednesday.Jay69 wrote:Anybody want to guess at where we end up today?
"Do not value money for any more nor any less than its worth; it is a good servant but a bad master" - Alexandre Dumas
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Ah, this thread is an old friend.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Neil Simon, 'Brighton Beach Memoirs'nisiprius wrote:Shoes on the bed? Oh, please, tell us more. I didn't know that.umfundi wrote:My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed.
I do remember that when we got married, one of the things we really needed was a good set of kitchen knives, but were told that we couldn't ask for them because it's bad luck ever to give a knife as a gift.
Mother: 'It's bad luck in a Jewish house to have shoes on the bed'
Son (Neil Simon): 'It's not a Jewish house, it was built by Italians'
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Is our friend from last fall, Mr. Volatility back? I keep waiting for Livesoft to have one of his RBD's.
I really just wanted to revive this thread.
I really just wanted to revive this thread.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's waiting for May, just another 8 days to go.ofcmetz wrote:Is our friend from last fall, Mr. Volatility back? I keep waiting for Livesoft to have one of his RBD's.
I really just wanted to revive this thread.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Not a great start to the week!
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
These selloffs are more fun when I have some cash to invest, but I haven't recovered yet from federal tax time.
Greg, retired 8/10.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Boy, it doesn't take much to stir up this thread these days. Must be a whole bunch of nervousness out there about whether the equity risk premium will be coming to the party. What's a party without the ERP?
"Life can only be understood backward; but it must be lived forward." ~ Søren Kierkegaard |
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"You can't connect the dots looking forward; but only by looking backwards." ~ Steve Jobs
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
LOL. sigh. it's just a PBD (Pretty bad day)
Don't gamble. Wait for a really bad day, if it doesn't happen, don't wait for it.
Don't gamble. Wait for a really bad day, if it doesn't happen, don't wait for it.
Nadie Sabe Nada
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I guess today only counts as another Pretty Bad Day, but they've been stringing them together a lot lately.
No excuses, no regrets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Do I hear the sound of cannon or just have auditory hallucination?
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wednesday in January 1999 is where we are back too.floydtime wrote:Wednesday.Jay69 wrote:Anybody want to guess at where we end up today?
Adjusted for inflation.....don't even ask.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Bump.
US stocks -2%
foreign stocks -4%
commodities -2.5%
We've still got another 1.5 hours to go.
US stocks -2%
foreign stocks -4%
commodities -2.5%
We've still got another 1.5 hours to go.
No excuses, no regrets.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I would hardly call today's action a freefall. Call me if the Dow drops 1000 points.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
We are (VWO, VXF, VEU).The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?
But all of them are still positive vs. 5 days ago. I'll wait.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Exactly... if a market goes up 3 days in a row, and then drops 1 day (but still is net positive over those 4 days), can you really proclaim "Dooooooooom!"?hsv_climber wrote:We are (VWO, VXF, VEU).The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?
But all of them are still positive vs. 5 days ago. I'll wait.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
RM
RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Looks like another good day for GNMA funds.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Where do you get that figure? I'm trying to decide whether to buy more of TRP New Asia (China/India/Korea/...) or Latin America funds, while they're priced low. I need to estimate a day in advance when to buy, since they're mutual funds. (I know about the major country indexes, but it would be useful also to have a current estimate for "foreign stocks".)xerty24 wrote: foreign stocks -4%
Greg, retired 8/10.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.
For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, but what will the market do tomorrow?nisiprius wrote:"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.
For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.
Keith
Déjà Vu is not a prediction
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
There are plenty of ETFs, I just picked a rough average. Here are a number to get you started:GregLee wrote:Where do you get that figure? I'm trying to decide whether to buy more of TRP New Asia (China/India/Korea/...) or Latin America funds, while they're priced low. I need to estimate a day in advance when to buy, since they're mutual funds. (I know about the major country indexes, but it would be useful also to have a current estimate for "foreign stocks".)xerty24 wrote: foreign stocks -4%
VGK (EU dev)
VPL (Asia dev)
EEM (Emerging)
FXI (China)
EPI (India)
RSX (Russia)
EWZ (Brazil)
EWY (Korea)
EWW (Mexico)
iShares as ones for just about any country you can imagine.
No excuses, no regrets.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Can we have a thread titled "Official Really Bad Day Alert?"
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. |
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It will fluctuate.umfundi wrote:Yes, but what will the market do tomorrow?nisiprius wrote:"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.
For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.
Keith
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Unpredictably.umfundi wrote:Yes, but how?It will fluctuate.
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I'd rather see where I'm going than see where I've been.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Is that a firm prediction?
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. |
Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. |
A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I don't think VWO was one of Vanguard's ETFs throwing off a dividend this quarter. That said, I bought VWO in my Roth this morning... around 10 am while it was down around a point and not even close to RBD territory. The early bird does not always catch the worm.livesoft wrote:Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The S&P 500 index was over 230 points higher - over a decade ago.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I think you have to subscribe to livesoft's newsletter for real time alerts . Otherwise, he'll tell you a week later if/when the market has recovered thereby validating the premise... it's hard to tell the True RBDs from the fake ones, after all.Bongleur wrote:Can we have a thread titled "Official Really Bad Day Alert?"
No excuses, no regrets.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
up or down, either way who cares. tomorrow is friday and the weekend will be upon us.umfundi wrote:Yes, but how?It will fluctuate.
salud
"I think the best way to find happiness is to stop looking so hard." - Kermit the Frog
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Looking at the action in Asian and Europe - figured I may as well bump this thread now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Umm... VWO is down 38 BASIS POINTS, over the last 5-days. I am not scared.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No, you're thinking of the "International stocks in freefall" thread.Tuxx wrote:Looking at the action in Asian and Europe - figured I may as well bump this thread now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, I know what the SP500 will do, because Goldman just told me.
According to a CNN article it will "drop to 1,285, roughly 5% below its current levels".
And Goldman added "the S&P could pop or at least stay flat if the U.S. or Chinese economies start revving up or if European policy makers talk a big game about propping up the market."
Therefore, I am taking action today in my portfolio to prepare for the predicted drop, pop, or flattening of the SP500.
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/go ... ?iid=HP_LN
According to a CNN article it will "drop to 1,285, roughly 5% below its current levels".
And Goldman added "the S&P could pop or at least stay flat if the U.S. or Chinese economies start revving up or if European policy makers talk a big game about propping up the market."
Therefore, I am taking action today in my portfolio to prepare for the predicted drop, pop, or flattening of the SP500.
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/go ... ?iid=HP_LN
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The S&P 500 index was 900 points lower 2 decades ago.Tuxx wrote:The S&P 500 index was over 230 points higher - over a decade ago.
Standard & Poor's 500 Index History
Mike
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was a smartypants. I was wrong. It didn't fluctuate.nisiprius wrote:It will fluctuate.umfundi wrote:Yes, but what will the market do tomorrow?nisiprius wrote:"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.
For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.
Keith
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
(1) You're not including dividendsTuxx wrote:The S&P 500 index was over 230 points higher - over a decade ago.
(2) I didn't save all my money in a jar from 1990-2000, then put all my money in the S&P 500 in 2000, and then walk away. The stock market has made me a ton of money over this "lost decade" and the decade before.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Is anybody else enjoying the market run-up today especially in VWO?livesoft wrote:Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No. Most of my purchases are done on the first of the month. Seeing Run Ups a couple days before I buy makes melivesoft wrote:Is anybody else enjoying the market run-up today especially in VWO?livesoft wrote:Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?