This will be the official thread for the 2012 contest. Per a couple of requests, I am going to relax last year's restriction to S&P 500 companies to a broader index, the Russell 3000. Because of this relaxation, I'm going to ask those who have already entered a portfolio at the tail end of the 2011 contest thread to repost in this thread instead, with revisions if you feel that the index change allows you some better choices.
Complete set of rules for 2012 ...
Pick a fancy name for your hedge fund. Show some creativity. A panel of esteemed judges will choose the best.
Before 9 am EST on 3 Jan 2012, pick two stocks to go long and two to short. You must choose four different positions. Equal dollar amounts are placed on each position.
Common stock only. No bonds, no options, no funds.
No trades during the year, except that you can elect at any time during normal exchange business hours to "freeze" a price for any individual position at that day's closing price, i.e. liquidate that one position. Other than that, you're stuck with what you choose for the year.
The universe from which to choose is the Russell 3000. No exceptions. I will attempt to verify membership ahead of time and warn if offside, but the onus is on participants to verify each submitted portfolio against the link provided. Portfolios containing one or more offside positions at the start time will be excluded from the contest. Stocks that are eligible at the start but are removed from the Russell 3000 during 2012 will continue to be tracked.
Starting prices are the 30 Dec 2011 close, ending prices will be the 31 Dec 2012 close. (Adjustments may be made to either in case of crazy spreads, at my sole discretion.)
Positions merged out of existence during 2012 will either be liquidated at takeover price for cash deals or converted to positions in acquiring company for stock deals. As the universe has expanded for the 2012 edition, buyouts and mergers may be more common than in earlier years. Contest participants are encouraged to keep me informed of such corporate actions in their own funds, either with a PM or a post in this thread.
Winner of the name contest deemed to purchase long positions at 1% discount and sell short positions at 1% premium!
Dividends won't count because ...
It's all automated to make it easy on myself.
My holiday schedule may result in a delay to the automation of posting of results but rest assured that I will get to it eventually.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Deep Dung Capital - plans to re-enter, but first must delve through some crapola :lol to come up with my candidates for 2012. Be back to you before year-end.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Long:
Bank of America (BAC)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Short:
Apple (AAPL) McDonald's (MCD)
I've never heard of anyone going out on that limb. Do you mind to give a reason why? Or do we have to subscribe to your newsletter for that?
No newsletter, just gut.... heh. I saw a CNN Money slideshow about how good Mickie D's did this year and my gut said "eww", so I listened to it. Only time will tell if my gut is a better prognosticator than a dart board or random selection.
"Volatility provokes the constant dread that some investors know more than we do, making us fearful of ignoring such powerful price movements." |
Peter Bernstein, "The 60/40 Solution."
Dear investors,
Consternation Partners is in the black!
After a competitive 2011 performance in the top 80%, we are proud to report that Consternatio partners is in the black with a 1.055% YTD return. While I'm not exactly sure what the competition is doing, doubtless this strong start out of the gates has left many of them gasping in the dust!
cheers,
Last edited by grok87 on Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Your optimism is a bit premature, as a few of my picks have some after-hours activity. We'll see tomorrow.
OTOH, I'm not sure how to calculate this. I'm assuming $1 in each fund as the starting balance. The daily gain is (prev close)/(today's close), which ignores the after-hours activity and opening bids. Are the shorts simply subtracting the gains? If so, I think I'm at -0.08%.
Portfolio: Seeking omega, which may be for quite some time if I don't get this figured out.
Long position: Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) (0.34%), Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) (-.52%)
Short position: Gamestop (GME) (-1.41%) , Apple Inc (APPL) (+1.54%)
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
LadyGeek wrote:Your optimism is a bit premature, as a few of my picks have some after-hours activity. We'll see tomorrow.
OTOH, I'm not sure how to calculate this. I'm assuming $1 in each fund as the starting balance. The daily gain is (prev close)/(today's close), which ignores the after-hours activity and opening bids. Are the shorts simply subtracting the gains? If so, I think I'm at -0.08%.
Portfolio: Seeking omega, which may be for quite some time if I don't get this figured out.
Long position: Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) (0.34%), Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) (-.52%)
Short position: Gamestop (GME) (-1.41%) , Apple Inc (APPL) (+1.54%)
Well i could be wrong but I think you average your longs (for you -0.09%) and average your shorts (for you +0.065%).
Then you subtract your shorts from your longs (for you -0.09% - +0.065% = -0.155%). Put another way I think you need to double the -0.08% you calculated.
cheers,
grok87 wrote:Well i could be wrong but I think you average your longs (for you -0.09%) and average your shorts (for you +0.065%).
Then you subtract your shorts from your longs (for you -0.09% - +0.065% = -0.155%). Put another way I think you need to double the -0.08% you calculated.
cheers,
I don't see how you can average something that's easily calculated by a few simple equations - except that we don't know what they are. Norbert?
I'm just testing the negative side of my spreadsheet equations.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.