[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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Mactheriverrat
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Mactheriverrat »

abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
+1 100%
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Number of new deaths dropped from 57 March 19 to 49 March 20 (first day to day drop since infection started ramping up).

Number of infected curve seems to be bending slightly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Mactheriverrat »

I would like to de-rail this thread a little bit that people should start posting about what's working against this virus .

I'm on twitter but do search's on cure's that are starting to work in showing progress in fighting this Virus.

I search twitter Hydroxychloroquine
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:55 am
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
+1 100%
There is some suspicion regarding data coming out of China (link below). Hopefully the numbers regarding Wuhan are accurate. It would make sense that the virus has run its course there. More openness from China in December would have done more to help mankind than what is being done now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/confusi ... cases.html
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Mactheriverrat »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:01 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:55 am
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
+1 100%
There is some suspicion regarding data coming out of China (link below). Hopefully the numbers regarding Wuhan are accurate. It would make sense that the virus has run its course there. More openness from China in December would have done more to help mankind than what is being done now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/confusi ... cases.html
I don't trust any numbers out of China which is still a COMMUNIST country . Maybe I should have said we need to come together in fighting this virus.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:03 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:01 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:55 am
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
+1 100%
There is some suspicion regarding data coming out of China (link below). Hopefully the numbers regarding Wuhan are accurate. It would make sense that the virus has run its course there. More openness from China in December would have done more to help mankind than what is being done now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/confusi ... cases.html
I don't trust any numbers out of China which is still a COMMUNIST country . Maybe I should have said we need to come together in fighting this virus.
Totally agree.
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vested1 »

An almost imperceptible downward blip in the number of infections and we get comments that the worst is over. The disjointed policies by individual States results in skewed statistics. Want an example?

My State, South Carolina, reported it's first two cases of COVID-19 on March 6th. Confirmed cases now stand at 125 as of March 20th. Well, that doesn't sound too bad, does it?

- On March 19th, the day before yesterday the number of confirmed cases was 81.

- SC has performed a total of 1380 tests in a population of 5.084 million. That doesn't sound too good at .027% of the population tested.

- The percentage of positive tests in South Carolina as compared to total tests is 9.06%. That doesn't sound good either, but then again, if you only test .027% of the population, and only test those individuals that show symptoms, and only test those who have traveled to an infected area, and only test those who have come into contact with a known infected person, and are forced to ration the number of test kits used, the data is a bit harder to interpret.

Two recent studies tested the entire population of citizens in certain locations, resulting in almost identical results. I posted links to these reports earlier but got no responding comments.

Vo, Italy, which had been one of the first devastated by the virus, with a remaining population of about 3,300 tested all of their citizens. They found that 50% of those who tested positive displayed no symptoms. They then isolated all those who tested positive and as a result have had no new infections since.

The other study in Iceland, with blanket testing, also showed that 50% of those who tested positive had no symptoms.

The governor of California, Gavin Newsom, based on the trending data in that State, announced that they expect 56% of the population to have been infected in the next 8 weeks. Right now 8 weeks seems like 8 years. 56% of California citizens equates to 25.5 million Californians. That's with California requiring drastic shutdowns and social distancing with possible jail time for non-compliance. If those studies in Vo and Iceland are representative that would mean 12,750,000 citizens of California may be infected in 8 weeks who won't know they're infected. Hopefully all of those will adhere to the restrictions of social distancing.

We'll have to wait to see how that relates to South Carolina because they take it somewhat less seriously here.

A united national response would seem appropriate.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vested1 »

Add to the above the inevitable escalation in the numbers when (not if) medical personnel run out of PPE and ventilators.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).

Image
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea.

The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.
As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Stinky »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).

Image
Very interesting.

So - what (if anything) has New York done “wrong”?
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by wshang »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am Image
It's not just that. Upstate is not as nearly impacted as that around NYC.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

wshang wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:52 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am Image
It's not just that. Upstate is not as nearly impacted as that around NYC.
Correct. Downstate (Westchester Co. and below, including Nassau and Suffolk) accounts for 6,624‬ out of 7102 or 93% of total cases statewide.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/count ... tive-cases
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

ebrasmus21 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:38 pm
fru-gal wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:35 pm
ebrasmus21 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:46 pm In December I was sick as hell. I was sick for weeks, missed several days of work and seemed to take forever to fully recover. I know many others in my area that had a rough cold/flu season this winter. I wonder if the virus was already here back in December and we just didn’t know it.
Is it possible to tell if someone had and has recovered from the coronavirus? That would be very useful to know, besides pertinent possibly in the plan being floated to use blood transfusions from those people to give others immunity.
It would be interesting information to have. All I know is I was as sick as I have been in quite some time
Antibody test.

Kind low priority at the moment tho’
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:44 am PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea.

The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.
As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
There should be domestic production (there is but limited) but it’s natural for China to hoard them. We would too until we had enough for everyone plus a good reserve because round 2 can always happen.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:11 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:03 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:01 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:55 am
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
+1 100%
There is some suspicion regarding data coming out of China (link below). Hopefully the numbers regarding Wuhan are accurate. It would make sense that the virus has run its course there. More openness from China in December would have done more to help mankind than what is being done now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/confusi ... cases.html
I don't trust any numbers out of China which is still a COMMUNIST country . Maybe I should have said we need to come together in fighting this virus.
Totally agree.
Chinese numbers are unreliable. Take for example their reported flu deaths in comparison to the US...
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:00 am I would like to de-rail this thread a little bit that people should start posting about what's working against this virus .

I'm on twitter but do search's on cure's that are starting to work in showing progress in fighting this Virus.

I search twitter Hydroxychloroquine
Not just the French but the Chinese have used it to good effect. Of course they’ve killed a few people overdosing on chloroquinine too...leading to rather pointed warnings from the central government...hydroxychloroquine is safer in theory because the in virtro effects are better so you can use lower dosages...
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by M.Lee »

Novine wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:30 pm "Also, don't forget virus will get to most people eventually, all we are doing is delaying the inevitable for short time without realizing how terrible a trade offs we are actually making in the long run."

It's not just the deaths from the virus itself. It's all the collateral deaths that happen when the health care system collapses under the weight of coronavirus cases. Right now, the ERs and ICUs in many major cities are overwhelmed by the volume of cases. Have a heart attack or get into an accident? Normally, you would be the top priority for care. Now, you're going to be triaged. The system isn't set up to handle all this on top of the usual level of activity. That's what's going to lead to a lot of deaths beyond what will be caused directly by the coronavirus. It's why the "just let it runs its course" approach would be a disaster.
Are Covid-19 patients placed above heart attack and other patients with life threatening conditions? If so why, and should this be the case?
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:01 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:44 am PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea.

The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.
As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
There should be domestic production (there is but limited) but it’s natural for China to hoard them. We would too until we had enough for everyone plus a good reserve because round 2 can always happen.
True. But it is particularly galling when the manufacturers include American companies such as 3M that set up shop in China to reduce costs. The Chinese government essentially nationalized an American company's Chinese operations.
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
FI4LIFE
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by FI4LIFE »

Stinky wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:45 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).

Image
Very interesting.

So - what (if anything) has New York done “wrong”?
Too slow to react. It has been a natural reaction for politicians to wait and see, taking half measures and waiting for test results. By then, it's too late. I hope other areas of the country take notes. Early and aggressive action works. Anything else doesn't. The governor of NY was pretty proactive in comparison to others in the US but it was still too slow. If you live somewhere that COVID hasn't yet hit, you need to urge MORE action.

An observation I've made is that wealthy, mobile pockets of the population have been most responsible for the spread of this virus in the areas surrounding NYC. I wonder if this is true elsewhere in the country. Likely they are more apt to travel and less willing to distance themselves due to greater work responsibility but that's just a guess.
Last edited by FI4LIFE on Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

spidercharm01 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:09 pm Also, don't forget lot more people can die because of unemployment, lack of resources, mental depression - which can last a lot longer. Most of the jobs may not come back for a year or more. How do you balance loss of lives because of 20% unemployment, economic depression vs. because of virus?

https://journalistsresource.org/studies ... da-europe/
https://www.nytimes.com/1930/05/22/arch ... an-of.html

"Based on statistics reported by Galbraith in The Great Crash 1929, the suicide rate in the United States increased from 17.0 per 100,000 people in 1929 to 21.3 in 1932 during the worst of the financial calamity"

Given significant drop of new cases in china and reports from starbucks and other US company rebounding in china sales, apple reopening many of the stores clearly points that China is on rebound and everything is getting back to normal. Even if you don't believe China numbers, you have to believe multiple US companies collaborating what's happening. It feels more and more that we are making much bigger deal out of this than what's worth.

Where possible, people work from home (good). But, stopping entire states, countries and all the businesses such as restaurants, bars etc. is not making any sense. News channel are showing beaches and other places where people are trying to live normal life and shutting them down. We are not realizing that all we are doing is spreading fear and making the overall impact worse.

Virus is nature, fear is of our own creation!!!

I hope sanity prevails....
You do realize that the only reason that China can get back to work after 8 weeks is because they did the same steps we are attempting today...shutting down businesses, travel, vacations, etc?

Also, increasing suicide 4 per 100,000 in a worst case scenario (aka 1929) is 13K deaths.

Given that China is returning to work after 8 weeks of shutdown means it’s not likely to be 1929 and that if you can enforce the social distancing to the same degree as the China/Singapore/HK/S Korea your timeframe is 2 months.

We can’t so more likely our curve will be longer.

Now Taiwan is an interesting place that doesn’t get as much mention. Their democracy/culture seems less ridgid than S Korea or Singapore but still more strict than ours.

Still they are only physically NJ sized and an island so has some advantages overall.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Ruger23 »

Stinky wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:45 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).

Image
Very interesting.

So - what (if anything) has New York done “wrong”?
Higher population density would be my guess
nigel_ht
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

M.Lee wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:06 am
Novine wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:30 pm "Also, don't forget virus will get to most people eventually, all we are doing is delaying the inevitable for short time without realizing how terrible a trade offs we are actually making in the long run."

It's not just the deaths from the virus itself. It's all the collateral deaths that happen when the health care system collapses under the weight of coronavirus cases. Right now, the ERs and ICUs in many major cities are overwhelmed by the volume of cases. Have a heart attack or get into an accident? Normally, you would be the top priority for care. Now, you're going to be triaged. The system isn't set up to handle all this on top of the usual level of activity. That's what's going to lead to a lot of deaths beyond what will be caused directly by the coronavirus. It's why the "just let it runs its course" approach would be a disaster.
Are Covid-19 patients placed above heart attack and other patients with life threatening conditions? If so why, and should this be the case?
It’s not priority, it’s saturation. The cardiac doctors, PAs, nurses, CNAs are drafted into helping with the overload or sick. Likely one or more of the cardiac wards has been used too. PPE is short. Ambulance services and EMTs are also overwhelmed.

What that translates to is slower response time, more tired staff, less resources, more mistakes and poorer outcomes for all patients including cardiac.

This is why all that social distancing is required...to minimize the time that our hospitals are overwhelmed.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

FI4LIFE wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:20 am
Too slow to react. It has been a natural reaction for politicians to wait and see, taking half measures and waiting for test results. By then, it's too late. I hope other areas of the country take notes. Early and aggressive action works. Anything else doesn't. The governor of NY was pretty proactive in comparison to others in the US but it was still too slow. If you live somewhere that COVID hasn't yet hit, you need to urge MORE action.

An observation I've made is that wealthy, mobile pockets of the population have been most responsible for the spread of this virus in the areas surrounding NYC. I wonder if this is true elsewhere in the country. Likely they are more apt to travel and less willing to distance themselves due to greater work responsibility but that's just a guess.
The return of Americans travelling to Europe would be my guess for the high infection rate. The first wave of infections was caused by people travelling in Wuhan, Hubei which was the source of the initial infections in Washington State (January 21, patient zero). New York had a low infection rate until recently so it doesn't appear that this initial seeding of the population was to blame.
Last edited by craimund on Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
FI4LIFE
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by FI4LIFE »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:21 am
spidercharm01 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:09 pm Also, don't forget lot more people can die because of unemployment, lack of resources, mental depression - which can last a lot longer. Most of the jobs may not come back for a year or more. How do you balance loss of lives because of 20% unemployment, economic depression vs. because of virus?

https://journalistsresource.org/studies ... da-europe/
https://www.nytimes.com/1930/05/22/arch ... an-of.html

"Based on statistics reported by Galbraith in The Great Crash 1929, the suicide rate in the United States increased from 17.0 per 100,000 people in 1929 to 21.3 in 1932 during the worst of the financial calamity"

Given significant drop of new cases in china and reports from starbucks and other US company rebounding in china sales, apple reopening many of the stores clearly points that China is on rebound and everything is getting back to normal. Even if you don't believe China numbers, you have to believe multiple US companies collaborating what's happening. It feels more and more that we are making much bigger deal out of this than what's worth.

Where possible, people work from home (good). But, stopping entire states, countries and all the businesses such as restaurants, bars etc. is not making any sense. News channel are showing beaches and other places where people are trying to live normal life and shutting them down. We are not realizing that all we are doing is spreading fear and making the overall impact worse.

Virus is nature, fear is of our own creation!!!

I hope sanity prevails....
You do realize that the only reason that China can get back to work after 8 weeks is because they did the same steps we are attempting today...shutting down businesses, travel, vacations, etc?

Also, increasing suicide 4 per 100,000 in a worst case scenario (aka 1929) is 13K deaths.

Given that China is returning to work after 8 weeks of shutdown means it’s not likely to be 1929 and that if you can enforce the social distancing to the same degree as the China/Singapore/HK/S Korea your timeframe is 2 months.

We can’t so more likely our curve will be longer.

Now Taiwan is an interesting place that doesn’t get as much mention. Their democracy/culture seems less ridgid than S Korea or Singapore but still more strict than ours.

Still they are only physically NJ sized and an island so has some advantages overall.
I agree. People like to ignore the fact that there simply is no way to deal with all of the patients this virus creates. There is no time for any other solution. Shutdowns are the only tool we have at the moment. Should we just create giant "death tents" in the woods somewhere that we dump the sick while we let this play out?

Interestingly, overall life expectancy increases during depressions and recessions so that argument doesn't hold water.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

FI4LIFE wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:36 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:21 am
spidercharm01 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:09 pm Also, don't forget lot more people can die because of unemployment, lack of resources, mental depression - which can last a lot longer. Most of the jobs may not come back for a year or more. How do you balance loss of lives because of 20% unemployment, economic depression vs. because of virus?

https://journalistsresource.org/studies ... da-europe/
https://www.nytimes.com/1930/05/22/arch ... an-of.html

"Based on statistics reported by Galbraith in The Great Crash 1929, the suicide rate in the United States increased from 17.0 per 100,000 people in 1929 to 21.3 in 1932 during the worst of the financial calamity"

Given significant drop of new cases in china and reports from starbucks and other US company rebounding in china sales, apple reopening many of the stores clearly points that China is on rebound and everything is getting back to normal. Even if you don't believe China numbers, you have to believe multiple US companies collaborating what's happening. It feels more and more that we are making much bigger deal out of this than what's worth.

Where possible, people work from home (good). But, stopping entire states, countries and all the businesses such as restaurants, bars etc. is not making any sense. News channel are showing beaches and other places where people are trying to live normal life and shutting them down. We are not realizing that all we are doing is spreading fear and making the overall impact worse.

Virus is nature, fear is of our own creation!!!

I hope sanity prevails....
You do realize that the only reason that China can get back to work after 8 weeks is because they did the same steps we are attempting today...shutting down businesses, travel, vacations, etc?

Also, increasing suicide 4 per 100,000 in a worst case scenario (aka 1929) is 13K deaths.

Given that China is returning to work after 8 weeks of shutdown means it’s not likely to be 1929 and that if you can enforce the social distancing to the same degree as the China/Singapore/HK/S Korea your timeframe is 2 months.

We can’t so more likely our curve will be longer.

Now Taiwan is an interesting place that doesn’t get as much mention. Their democracy/culture seems less ridgid than S Korea or Singapore but still more strict than ours.

Still they are only physically NJ sized and an island so has some advantages overall.
I agree. People like to ignore the fact that there simply is no way to deal with all of the patients this virus creates. There is no time for any other solution. Shutdowns are the only tool we have at the moment. Should we just create giant "death tents" in the woods somewhere that we dump the sick while we let this play out?

Interestingly, overall life expectancy increases during depressions and recessions so that argument doesn't hold water.
Until recently life expectancy in the US has been on a general rise through thick and thin, bulls and bears, war and peace.

The only significant outlier was 1918 where it dropped by 12 years...
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky »

Using data from https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... j5/pubhtml#, which has daily numbers from 4:00 pm eastern: I've plotted two exponential curves, one using a best fit to the data and the other just using the first and last counts.

The US infection rate is steadily increasing exponentially, with a doubling time of 2.33 days from the best fit and 2.23 days using first-last.
Image

US testing is also ramping up exponentially, with a doubling time of 2.18 days from the best fit and 2.20 days using first-last.
Image

Average positive results for US testing is about 12%.

Doubling time from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ted_States is 2.26 days from the best fit and 2.19 days using first-last.

Doubling time from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/, whose daily numbers seem like they are ahead of the other two sites by 1/2 day, are 2.42 days for best fit and 2.37 days from first-last.

World infection doubling time from https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6 is 4.35 days from the best fit and 4.23 days from the first-last.

At the current rates, the US would reach 4 million infections somewhere between 4/6-4/8, which would be equivalent to the seasonal flu assuming the coronavirus is 10x worse. We would need to see the rates flattening out considerably before that to match the flu impact.

At the current rates, the entire US would be infected by 4/21-4/23.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Ruger23 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:23 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:45 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).

Image
Very interesting.

So - what (if anything) has New York done “wrong”?
Higher population density would be my guess
Clearly more aggressive action is needed in NY than elsewhere in the country.
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
FI4LIFE
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by FI4LIFE »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:42 am
FI4LIFE wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:36 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:21 am
spidercharm01 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:09 pm Also, don't forget lot more people can die because of unemployment, lack of resources, mental depression - which can last a lot longer. Most of the jobs may not come back for a year or more. How do you balance loss of lives because of 20% unemployment, economic depression vs. because of virus?

https://journalistsresource.org/studies ... da-europe/
https://www.nytimes.com/1930/05/22/arch ... an-of.html

"Based on statistics reported by Galbraith in The Great Crash 1929, the suicide rate in the United States increased from 17.0 per 100,000 people in 1929 to 21.3 in 1932 during the worst of the financial calamity"

Given significant drop of new cases in china and reports from starbucks and other US company rebounding in china sales, apple reopening many of the stores clearly points that China is on rebound and everything is getting back to normal. Even if you don't believe China numbers, you have to believe multiple US companies collaborating what's happening. It feels more and more that we are making much bigger deal out of this than what's worth.

Where possible, people work from home (good). But, stopping entire states, countries and all the businesses such as restaurants, bars etc. is not making any sense. News channel are showing beaches and other places where people are trying to live normal life and shutting them down. We are not realizing that all we are doing is spreading fear and making the overall impact worse.

Virus is nature, fear is of our own creation!!!

I hope sanity prevails....
You do realize that the only reason that China can get back to work after 8 weeks is because they did the same steps we are attempting today...shutting down businesses, travel, vacations, etc?

Also, increasing suicide 4 per 100,000 in a worst case scenario (aka 1929) is 13K deaths.

Given that China is returning to work after 8 weeks of shutdown means it’s not likely to be 1929 and that if you can enforce the social distancing to the same degree as the China/Singapore/HK/S Korea your timeframe is 2 months.

We can’t so more likely our curve will be longer.

Now Taiwan is an interesting place that doesn’t get as much mention. Their democracy/culture seems less ridgid than S Korea or Singapore but still more strict than ours.

Still they are only physically NJ sized and an island so has some advantages overall.
I agree. People like to ignore the fact that there simply is no way to deal with all of the patients this virus creates. There is no time for any other solution. Shutdowns are the only tool we have at the moment. Should we just create giant "death tents" in the woods somewhere that we dump the sick while we let this play out?

Interestingly, overall life expectancy increases during depressions and recessions so that argument doesn't hold water.
Until recently life expectancy in the US has been on a general rise through thick and thin, bulls and bears, war and peace.

The only significant outlier was 1918 where it dropped by 12 years...
Thanks for clarifying. I didn't do enough research.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Interesting article on privacy concerns of using a South Korea like approach to combating COVID-19.

In South Korea, the authorities have sent out texts detailing the movements of specific people infected with Covid-19, stirring up public shaming and rumor-mongering. The government is also using a smartphone app to ensure people stay home when they have been ordered to quarantine themselves.

The ubiquitous Chinese apps WeChat and AliPay have been used to assign people “color codes” to determine whether they should quarantine themselves or may move around freely. But some citizens say the codes appear to be applied arbitrarily or based on which province they are in. There is also evidence the apps feed data back to the authorities.

https://www.wired.com/story/phones-trac ... good-idea/
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:21 am
Also, increasing suicide 4 per 100,000 in a worst case scenario (aka 1929) is 13K deaths.
On a personal note, in doing some genealogy research years ago I discovered that my great-grandfather committed suicide in 1930. Not sure if it had anything to do with the great depression.

I also read that automobile deaths decreased significantly during the great depression which offset the increase in suicides.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by awval999 »

The confirmed infection rate is meaningless because of limited number of testing. As many have said... if somehow we tested all of USA and have 1M or 10M or 100M positive, what would that change? Truthfully, the higher number of infected reduces the case fatality rate as long as the deaths don't increase in the same amount.

The confirmed death rate is much more important because it shows if/when the hospitals are overwhelmed.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Noobvestor »

technovelist wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:28 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
I'd love to believe the Chinese reports. But I don't, so I can't be that sanguine.
Open question: which provides more reliable data - a country that is testing and reporting, but may be under-reporting, or a country that is barely testing? All speculation aside, the latter case just doesn't tell us much, does it?
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by NearlyRetired »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:59 am
ebrasmus21 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:38 pm
fru-gal wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:35 pm
ebrasmus21 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:46 pm In December I was sick as hell. I was sick for weeks, missed several days of work and seemed to take forever to fully recover. I know many others in my area that had a rough cold/flu season this winter. I wonder if the virus was already here back in December and we just didn’t know it.
Is it possible to tell if someone had and has recovered from the coronavirus? That would be very useful to know, besides pertinent possibly in the plan being floated to use blood transfusions from those people to give others immunity.
It would be interesting information to have. All I know is I was as sick as I have been in quite some time
Antibody test.

Kind low priority at the moment tho’
Not really. If you can get an idea of how many people have already had the virus, you can have a better feel for how many could potentially catch it still - I'm sure that sort of information would be invaluable to help with the planning.
Also, for medical staff, etc, it would be very useful to know who has already had this so do not have to take all the PPE precautions (assuming there is at least some short term immunity from it)
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by technovelist »

Mactheriverrat wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:00 am I would like to de-rail this thread a little bit that people should start posting about what's working against this virus .

I'm on twitter but do search's on cure's that are starting to work in showing progress in fighting this Virus.

I search twitter Hydroxychloroquine
1. Cannabinoids are potent anti-inflammatory drugs:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2828614/

2. There is no known lethal dose of cannabis.

3. What seems to be killing people is a cytokine storm, which can be suppressed by anti-inflammatory drugs:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 0/fulltext

Conclusion: Cannabis must be legalized immediately for medical use in the US.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Noobvestor wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:02 am
technovelist wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:28 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
I'd love to believe the Chinese reports. But I don't, so I can't be that sanguine.
Open question: which provides more reliable data - a country that is testing and reporting, but may be under-reporting, or a country that is barely testing? All speculation aside, the latter case just doesn't tell us much, does it?
Active concealment would be less reliable. US is testing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... j5/pubhtml#
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky »

technovelist wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:04 am Conclusion: Cannabis must be legalized immediately for medical use in the US.
Based on just a conjecture and no testing that would support effectiveness or determine side-effects ?
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Noobvestor »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:05 am
Noobvestor wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:02 am
technovelist wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:28 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
I'd love to believe the Chinese reports. But I don't, so I can't be that sanguine.
Open question: which provides more reliable data - a country that is testing and reporting, but may be under-reporting, or a country that is barely testing? All speculation aside, the latter case just doesn't tell us much, does it?
Active concealment would be less reliable. US is testing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... j5/pubhtml#
Interesting. So for example if one country tested 2% of the population, and reported results for only half of those tests, but another country tested 0.01% of their population (twenty times less) and reported all tests, would the latter provide a more accurate picture?

My gut reaction is that the answer is no - the country testing twenty times more, even with doctored results, has a more accurate picture of what the infection rate is and more data in general from which one can draw conclusions. But I'm not an epidemiologist or mathematician.
Last edited by Noobvestor on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by technovelist »

rkhusky wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:29 am
technovelist wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:04 am Conclusion: Cannabis must be legalized immediately for medical use in the US.
Based on just a conjecture and no testing that would support effectiveness or determine side-effects ?
Correct, since there is no lethal dose for cannabis.
This is an emergency.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky »

awval999 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:59 am The confirmed infection rate is meaningless because of limited number of testing. As many have said... if somehow we tested all of USA and have 1M or 10M or 100M positive, what would that change? Truthfully, the higher number of infected reduces the case fatality rate as long as the deaths don't increase in the same amount.

The confirmed death rate is much more important because it shows if/when the hospitals are overwhelmed.
If the government had those numbers (1M,10M, 100M) for the entire population, then they could better plan how to deal with the infection and each alternative would probably result in different government actions. If everyone has it already, there is no point in quarantine and everyone could go back to work. If only 1M total have it, quarantine of just the infected would be useful and the rest could go back to work.

The death rate numbers are still a bit shaky. Below are best fit exponential and first-last exponential fit. It's still not clear if deaths are increasing exponentially or only at power law rate.
Image
Last edited by rkhusky on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Noobvestor wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:32 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:05 am
Noobvestor wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:02 am
technovelist wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:28 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:25 pm This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together.

They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus.
I'd love to believe the Chinese reports. But I don't, so I can't be that sanguine.
Open question: which provides more reliable data - a country that is testing and reporting, but may be under-reporting, or a country that is barely testing? All speculation aside, the latter case just doesn't tell us much, does it?
Active concealment would be less reliable. US is testing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... j5/pubhtml#
Interesting. So for example if one country tested 2% of the population, and reported results for only half of those tests, but another country tested 0.01% of their population (twenty times less) and reported all tests, would the latter provide a more accurate picture?

My gut reaction is that the answer is no - the country testing twenty times more, even with doctored results, has a more accurate picture of what the infection rate is and more data in general from which one can draw conclusions. But I'm not an epidemiologist or mathematician.
The government of that country may have an accurate picture which they would be keeping to themselves. No one else would. In theory they could only post negative results. Clearly this would have no value.
FYI - South Korea (which has tested the most) has only tested about 0.5% of its population. Not sure what an acceptable level of testing is since we know next to nothing about the accuracy of the testing.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Study - 50% False Positive Test Results for Asymptomatic individuals

Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3213383 ... cQBKMtCIoI
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by iceman »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:45 am
Ruger23 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:23 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:45 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).

Image
Very interesting.

So - what (if anything) has New York done “wrong”?
Higher population density would be my guess
Clearly more aggressive action is needed in NY than elsewhere in the country.

I takeaway the opposite. Yes, NYC needs aggressive action now to bend the curve 7-14 days from now. But the next 7 days are already set based on incubation time. They will be overwhelmed by end of next week.

Rest of the country needs to take aggressive action now to avoid the same thing playing out.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

rkhusky wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:37 am
awval999 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:59 am The confirmed infection rate is meaningless because of limited number of testing. As many have said... if somehow we tested all of USA and have 1M or 10M or 100M positive, what would that change? Truthfully, the higher number of infected reduces the case fatality rate as long as the deaths don't increase in the same amount.

The confirmed death rate is much more important because it shows if/when the hospitals are overwhelmed.
If the government had those numbers (1M,10M, 100M) for the entire population, then they could better plan how to deal with the infection and each alternative would probably result in different government actions. If everyone has it already, there is no point in quarantine and everyone could go back to work. If only 1M total have it, quarantine of just the infected would be useful and the rest could go back to work.

The death rate numbers are still a bit shaky. Below are best fit exponential and first-last exponential fit. It's still not clear if deaths are increasing exponentially or only at power law rate.
Image
Test would have to be very accurate to effectively screen for infections in asymptomatic people. A test with a 1% false positive rate used in a population with a 1% infection rate would result in approximately half of the diagnosed infections being false positives. The South Korean test may have a 10% error rate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 42693.html
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ValuationsMatter »

I wonder if it will make a splash that by the end of the day, we'll surpass all but China and Italy in total cases, and all but Italy in active cases. In new cases, we should be #1 by the end of the day.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by wshang »

craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am Test would have to be very accurate to effectively screen for infections in asymptomatic people. A test with a 1% false positive rate used in a population with a 1% infection rate would result in approximately half of the diagnosed infections being false positives. The South Korean test may have a 10% error rate.
Heartily agree! You and many others have been attempting to explain the concepts of Negative Predictive Value and Positive Predictive Value of tests for webpage after webpage, yet it still demands re-emphasis.
Testing is of little value outside of the public health realm when the overall prevalence is low. Given the characteristics of this disease and known PCR test characteristics, an individual's test result should not influence behavior significantly. (whether to social distance or not)

The most reliable statistic to follow is disease specific death rate because that is the least subject to sampling error.
If we could calculate and disseminate the "Covid-19 excess mortality," perhaps this would be of some comfort and reassurance.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:01 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:44 am PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea.

The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.
As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
There should be domestic production (there is but limited) but it’s natural for China to hoard them. We would too until we had enough for everyone plus a good reserve because round 2 can always happen.
nigel_ht,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

<<In the last few weeks, China has donated coronavirus testing kits to Cambodia, sent planeloads of ventilators, masks and medics to Italy and France, pledged to help the Philippines, Spain and other countries, and deployed medics to Iran and Iraq.>>

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-epidemic

<<A flashpoint has been the failure of member states to respond to a call by Italy for extra supplies of medical equipment, including masks.

Germany and France are among the EU countries to have imposed limits on the export of protective medical equipment, while China has offered to sell Italy 1,000 lung ventilators, 2m masks, 20,000 protective suits and 50,000 swabs for coronavirus tests.>>

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poli ... s-per-week

<<American nurses and doctors could soon receive a welcome influx of hospital masks from Taiwan, which is ramping up production to supply 100,000 masks per week to the United States.

“We have enough capacity to cooperate with the U.S.,” an official at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s de facto embassy to the U.S., told the Washington Examiner.>>

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... id-to-asia

<<Jack Ma, Asia’s richest man, pledged 1.8 million face masks and 210,000 coronavirus test kits to some of the continent’s poorest nations, the latest step in an ongoing effort from his foundation to push back against what’s become a global pandemic.

Ma joined Twitter on Monday to announce that the Jack Ma Foundation and Alibaba Foundation were shipping a donation of emergency supplies to the U.S. Having previously aided virus-fighting efforts in Japan, Iran and Italy, the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. co-founder’s philanthropic groups also expanded to send thousands of testing kits and masks to countries in Africa.

In his latest tweet, Ma said that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka would all receive help that includes protective suits, ventilators and thermometers.>>

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/14/2117 ... s-masks-us
<<Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma to donate coronavirus test kits and masks to the US>>
<<Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma says he is donating 500,000 coronavirus testing kits and one million protective face masks to the United States, Reuters reports. The Chinese billionaire already has pledged 2 million protective masks to European countries. A first shipment of test kits, medical supplies and 500,000 masks intended for Italy, which has been hard-hit by the virus, arriving at Liege Airport in Belgium late Friday.

“The pandemic we face today can no longer be resolved by any individual country,” Ma said in a statement posted to Twitter. “We can’t beat this virus unless we eliminate boundaries to resources and share our know-how and hard-earned lessons.” The US has lagged behind other countries testing for the coronavirus.>>

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by smitcat »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:13 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:01 am
craimund wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:44 am PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea.

The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.
As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
There should be domestic production (there is but limited) but it’s natural for China to hoard them. We would too until we had enough for everyone plus a good reserve because round 2 can always happen.
nigel_ht,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

<<In the last few weeks, China has donated coronavirus testing kits to Cambodia, sent planeloads of ventilators, masks and medics to Italy and France, pledged to help the Philippines, Spain and other countries, and deployed medics to Iran and Iraq.>>

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-epidemic

<<A flashpoint has been the failure of member states to respond to a call by Italy for extra supplies of medical equipment, including masks.

Germany and France are among the EU countries to have imposed limits on the export of protective medical equipment, while China has offered to sell Italy 1,000 lung ventilators, 2m masks, 20,000 protective suits and 50,000 swabs for coronavirus tests.>>

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poli ... s-per-week

<<American nurses and doctors could soon receive a welcome influx of hospital masks from Taiwan, which is ramping up production to supply 100,000 masks per week to the United States.

“We have enough capacity to cooperate with the U.S.,” an official at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s de facto embassy to the U.S., told the Washington Examiner.>>

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... id-to-asia

<<Jack Ma, Asia’s richest man, pledged 1.8 million face masks and 210,000 coronavirus test kits to some of the continent’s poorest nations, the latest step in an ongoing effort from his foundation to push back against what’s become a global pandemic.

Ma joined Twitter on Monday to announce that the Jack Ma Foundation and Alibaba Foundation were shipping a donation of emergency supplies to the U.S. Having previously aided virus-fighting efforts in Japan, Iran and Italy, the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. co-founder’s philanthropic groups also expanded to send thousands of testing kits and masks to countries in Africa.

In his latest tweet, Ma said that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka would all receive help that includes protective suits, ventilators and thermometers.>>

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/14/2117 ... s-masks-us
<<Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma to donate coronavirus test kits and masks to the US>>
<<Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma says he is donating 500,000 coronavirus testing kits and one million protective face masks to the United States, Reuters reports. The Chinese billionaire already has pledged 2 million protective masks to European countries. A first shipment of test kits, medical supplies and 500,000 masks intended for Italy, which has been hard-hit by the virus, arriving at Liege Airport in Belgium late Friday.

“The pandemic we face today can no longer be resolved by any individual country,” Ma said in a statement posted to Twitter. “We can’t beat this virus unless we eliminate boundaries to resources and share our know-how and hard-earned lessons.” The US has lagged behind other countries testing for the coronavirus.>>

KlangFool
“The pandemic we face today can no longer be resolved by any individual country,” Ma said in a statement posted to Twitter. “We can’t beat this virus unless we eliminate boundaries to resources and share our know-how and hard-earned lessons.”

I would expect any country to be behind China's timeline for coronavirus reactions. When you know data but choose to not share said data you are not resolving a pandemic by eliminating boundaries.
Details are available in many Chinese press accounts, one link here...
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2020/03/07/c ... s-14-days/
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by protagonist »

vested1 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:41 am

The governor of California, Gavin Newsom, based on the trending data in that State, announced that they expect 56% of the population to have been infected in the next 8 weeks.
That's pretty specific. How did the governor get that number? On what is the calculation based?
vested1
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vested1 »

protagonist wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:54 am
vested1 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:41 am

The governor of California, Gavin Newsom, based on the trending data in that State, announced that they expect 56% of the population to have been infected in the next 8 weeks.
That's pretty specific. How did the governor get that number? On what is the calculation based?
One reference in The Hill:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4885 ... ver-8-week

An opposing view which identifies this as "worst case scenario" and that, admittedly by Newsom's staff the figure was determined assuming no further mitigation. California has been doing a tremendous amount of mitigation, much after he sent the letter stating California's 8 week estimation:

http://www.capradio.org/articles/2020/0 ... ght-weeks/

You'll notice, in an attempt to be balanced, my wording was "may" not "will". It should be noted that when The Hill article was written on Thursday evening there were 950 cases in California and 18 deaths. As of 8:32 this morning there were 1,261 cases and 23 deaths. I would expect the number of infected to be orders of magnitude greater if everyone who was approved for testing by their doctors could receive the test. At this point, testing is less urgent than preparing for the incoming wave of patients by obtaining adequate numbers of PPE, ventilators, trained personnel, and hospital beds.

There is no doubt that there are a great number of infected with no symptoms, as referenced in my comment you quoted. I wonder why that continues to be ignored.

Let's hope we don't get to worst case, but regardless, worst case preparedness is far better than being underprepared.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html
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