[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

US Local Chapters, Wiki, and general Bogleheads community discussion, news, events, and announcements.
Locked
AlphaLess
Posts: 2620
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:46 pm

JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:12 pm
knpstr wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:22 pm
JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:06 pm
Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society

Researchers to test thousands for immunity as Berlin plans exit strategy for pandemic lock down

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... arantined/

This looks very interesting. A couple people on Twitter seem excited about it FWIW.
How do you get a certificate from the government to ever re-enter society if you test negative and are quarantined to protect yourself from getting it?
I don't know if they have determined all the details. I'm sure they will think through all the issues. See Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research.

"“Immune individuals could be issued with a kind of vaccination certificate, which would allow them to be exempted from restrictions on their activities, for example,” said Prof Gérard Krause, head of the HZI Department of Epidemiology, to the SPIEGEL.""
That would require, I presume a lot of tests:
- a test to confirm COVID-positive,
- at least two tests to confirm COVID-negative after testing positive.

I don't think we will be in a position to do so many tests for at least another 6-8 weeks.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

AlphaLess
Posts: 2620
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:47 pm

webbie90 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:32 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:56 pm
Bluerpint for re-opening the country.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/r ... reopening/

We are in Phase 1: SLOW THE SPREAD.

Guidelines for moving to Phase 2:

A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:
• Sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms,
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.

This is very similar to Korea's Test-and-Trace program.
Thank you for posting this blueprint. There is much needed detail in it about what it would take to get back to at least something resembling the normal life we enjoyed before COVID-19.

There has been a lot of discussion already about the testing fiasco, and it seems we are still a long way from each state being able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms. Hopefully that will change.

The last bullet (tracing of all contacts of cases) also seems to be a weak link in this. State and local health departments tend to be chronically underfunded. CNN reported that funding cuts contributed to more than 55,000 lost jobs at local public health departments from 2008-2017, according to a report by Trust for America's Health. There is substantial variability across states in the size and skill of its public health workforce. It would be interesting to know the capability of health departments across the country to do extensive contact tracing for the novel coronavirus, which is hard, labor-intensive work. For example, early on in the outbreak it was reported that California was attempting to simultaneously monitor almost 10,000 people who may been exposed.
South Korea is the global exemplar for Test and Trace.

There are many high quality articles on what South Korea did.

"Patient 31", as I like to call it, is my absolute favorite:

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEAL ... index.html
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

AlphaLess
Posts: 2620
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:50 pm

webbie90 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:32 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:56 pm
Bluerpint for re-opening the country.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/r ... reopening/

We are in Phase 1: SLOW THE SPREAD.

Guidelines for moving to Phase 2:

A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:
• Sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms,
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.

This is very similar to Korea's Test-and-Trace program.
Thank you for posting this blueprint. There is much needed detail in it about what it would take to get back to at least something resembling the normal life we enjoyed before COVID-19.

There has been a lot of discussion already about the testing fiasco, and it seems we are still a long way from each state being able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms. Hopefully that will change.

The last bullet (tracing of all contacts of cases) also seems to be a weak link in this. State and local health departments tend to be chronically underfunded. CNN reported that funding cuts contributed to more than 55,000 lost jobs at local public health departments from 2008-2017, according to a report by Trust for America's Health. There is substantial variability across states in the size and skill of its public health workforce. It would be interesting to know the capability of health departments across the country to do extensive contact tracing for the novel coronavirus, which is hard, labor-intensive work. For example, early on in the outbreak it was reported that California was attempting to simultaneously monitor almost 10,000 people who may been exposed.
Your last paragraph brings up excellent points.

I think hoping that we can have a quality test-and-trace program, all of a sudden, and out of nowhere, is a bit wishful thinking.

In nature, it is much more easy to get entropy than organization.

For a nationwide quality test-and-trade, we would need a very thorough plan and excellent execution. This would include probably hundreds of quality people in charge, and probably 50K people nationwide working on it.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

curmudgeon
Posts: 2057
Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:00 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by curmudgeon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:04 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:46 pm
JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:12 pm
knpstr wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:22 pm
JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:06 pm
Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society

Researchers to test thousands for immunity as Berlin plans exit strategy for pandemic lock down

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... arantined/

This looks very interesting. A couple people on Twitter seem excited about it FWIW.
How do you get a certificate from the government to ever re-enter society if you test negative and are quarantined to protect yourself from getting it?
I don't know if they have determined all the details. I'm sure they will think through all the issues. See Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research.

"“Immune individuals could be issued with a kind of vaccination certificate, which would allow them to be exempted from restrictions on their activities, for example,” said Prof Gérard Krause, head of the HZI Department of Epidemiology, to the SPIEGEL.""
That would require, I presume a lot of tests:
- a test to confirm COVID-positive,
- at least two tests to confirm COVID-negative after testing positive.

I don't think we will be in a position to do so many tests for at least another 6-8 weeks.
The point of antibody tests is that they are not dependent on when you did or did not have active virus samples (as in the current testing). The antibody tests find the protective characteristics in your bloodstream which show that your body has fought off the virus in the past (and is in theory protected now). This lets you identify the people who had mild or no symptoms, but did have the virus, at some point in the past.

webbie90
Posts: 69
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:52 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by webbie90 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:14 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:47 pm
webbie90 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:32 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:56 pm
Bluerpint for re-opening the country.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/r ... reopening/

We are in Phase 1: SLOW THE SPREAD.

Guidelines for moving to Phase 2:

A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:
• Sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms,
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.

This is very similar to Korea's Test-and-Trace program.
Thank you for posting this blueprint. There is much needed detail in it about what it would take to get back to at least something resembling the normal life we enjoyed before COVID-19.

There has been a lot of discussion already about the testing fiasco, and it seems we are still a long way from each state being able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms. Hopefully that will change.

The last bullet (tracing of all contacts of cases) also seems to be a weak link in this. State and local health departments tend to be chronically underfunded. CNN reported that funding cuts contributed to more than 55,000 lost jobs at local public health departments from 2008-2017, according to a report by Trust for America's Health. There is substantial variability across states in the size and skill of its public health workforce. It would be interesting to know the capability of health departments across the country to do extensive contact tracing for the novel coronavirus, which is hard, labor-intensive work. For example, early on in the outbreak it was reported that California was attempting to simultaneously monitor almost 10,000 people who may been exposed.
South Korea is the global exemplar for Test and Trace.

There are many high quality articles on what South Korea did.

"Patient 31", as I like to call it, is my absolute favorite:

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEAL ... index.html
There are some great visuals in that Reuters piece, thanks. The article implies that the contact tracing was done by the equivalent of the Korean CDC, so their system likely allowed for a coordinated, nationwide effort. By contrast, in the U.S. responsibility for contact tracing falls on state and local health departments.

I found this article on the early efforts to do COVID-19 contact tracing in the state of California, which was abandoned in mid-March because of the lack of available testing. It included this interesting fact about the scope of contact tracing in China:

https://khn.org/news/testing-shortages- ... officials/

"In Wuhan, China, for example, 1,800 teams of epidemiologists, each made of up of five people, traced tens of thousands of contacts each day. “We would never be able to do that. Contact tracing is very resource-intensive,” said Shahpar. “It’s not like public health departments have 50 standby teams to do this.”
Last edited by webbie90 on Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

typical.investor
Posts: 2003
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:17 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by typical.investor » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:14 pm

mouses wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:29 am
Isabelle77 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:19 am
The BCG vaccine trials are interesting. My children were born overseas and have both had this vaccine.
Yes, I'd like to know more about this. If it is really that helpful in general, I don't know why it is not recommended in the U.S. already.
It's expected to be tested with 4,000 health care workers in Australia in the coming weeks. Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom are said to have programs looking in to it as well.

https://www.sciencealert.com/australia- ... t-it-first

Beensabu
Posts: 309
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by Beensabu » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:16 pm

Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
The ones without any state-wide stay-at-home orders at this time:

Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Iowa**
Kentucky*
Maine**
Maryland*
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska**
Nevada*
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia*
Wyoming

* Non-essential businesses closed
**No state-wide school closure orders; school closures vary by district
Last edited by Beensabu on Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next."

nigel_ht
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:17 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:46 pm
JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:12 pm
knpstr wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:22 pm
JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:06 pm
Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society

Researchers to test thousands for immunity as Berlin plans exit strategy for pandemic lock down

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... arantined/

This looks very interesting. A couple people on Twitter seem excited about it FWIW.
How do you get a certificate from the government to ever re-enter society if you test negative and are quarantined to protect yourself from getting it?
I don't know if they have determined all the details. I'm sure they will think through all the issues. See Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research.

"“Immune individuals could be issued with a kind of vaccination certificate, which would allow them to be exempted from restrictions on their activities, for example,” said Prof Gérard Krause, head of the HZI Department of Epidemiology, to the SPIEGEL.""
That would require, I presume a lot of tests:
- a test to confirm COVID-positive,
- at least two tests to confirm COVID-negative after testing positive.

I don't think we will be in a position to do so many tests for at least another 6-8 weeks.
Or an antibody test

User avatar
Tony-S
Posts: 182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:48 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tony-S » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:46 pm
JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:12 pm
knpstr wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:22 pm
JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:06 pm
Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society

Researchers to test thousands for immunity as Berlin plans exit strategy for pandemic lock down

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... arantined/

This looks very interesting. A couple people on Twitter seem excited about it FWIW.
How do you get a certificate from the government to ever re-enter society if you test negative and are quarantined to protect yourself from getting it?
I don't know if they have determined all the details. I'm sure they will think through all the issues. See Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research.

"“Immune individuals could be issued with a kind of vaccination certificate, which would allow them to be exempted from restrictions on their activities, for example,” said Prof Gérard Krause, head of the HZI Department of Epidemiology, to the SPIEGEL.""
That would require, I presume a lot of tests:
- a test to confirm COVID-positive,
- at least two tests to confirm COVID-negative after testing positive.

I don't think we will be in a position to do so many tests for at least another 6-8 weeks.
More likely, antibody testing. If you’ve seroconverted you are likely immune.

User avatar
JAZZISCOOL
Posts: 1112
Joined: Sat May 18, 2019 11:49 am
Location: Colorado - 5,700 ft.

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by JAZZISCOOL » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:34 pm

I saw on Twitter that the government of Wales is testing for COVID-19:

https://gov.wales/new-coronavirus-smart-test-wales

EDIT:

Also, one Stanford medical professor recommends randomly sampling for antibodies:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ality-rate
Last edited by JAZZISCOOL on Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.

AlphaLess
Posts: 2620
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:35 pm

Tony-S wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 pm
More likely, antibody testing. If you’ve seroconverted you are likely immune.
Of course, that would be better.

But with the entire system acting like a chicken whose head has been cut off, I would say we are weeks, if not months away from that.
Antibody serum testing is the golden standard to determine percentage of population infected, percentage of asymptomatic cases, and ultimately, CFR.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 4394
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by Stinky » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:35 pm

Beensabu wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:16 pm
Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
The ones without any state-wide stay-at-home orders at this time:

Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Iowa**
Kentucky*
Maine**
Maryland*
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska**
Nevada*
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia*
Wyoming

* Non-essential businesses closed
**No state-wide school closure orders; school closures vary by district
I doubt that anybody in any of those states would call their current situation “business as usual”.

Lack of a “stay at home” order does not mean that it is “business as usual”.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

AlphaLess
Posts: 2620
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:37 pm

webbie90 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:14 pm
There are some great visuals in that Reuters piece, thanks. The article implies that the contact tracing was done by the equivalent of the Korean CDC, so their system likely allowed for a coordinated, nationwide effort. By contrast, in the U.S. responsibility for contact tracing falls on state and local health departments.

I found this article on the early efforts to do COVID-19 contact tracing in the state of California, which was abandoned in mid-March because of the lack of available testing. It included this interesting fact about the scope of contact tracing in China:

https://khn.org/news/testing-shortages- ... officials/

"In Wuhan, China, for example, 1,800 teams of epidemiologists, each made of up of five people, traced tens of thousands of contacts each day. “We would never be able to do that. Contact tracing is very resource-intensive,” said Shahpar. “It’s not like public health departments have 50 standby teams to do this.”
Glad you enjoyed it. And also, nice references.

The reason Korean CDC was so well equipped is that they got hit hard by MERS, and decided to take the lessons learned, and really did a good job with it.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

User avatar
eye.surgeon
Posts: 609
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:19 pm
Location: California

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by eye.surgeon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm

US deaths dropped by half From the previous day today on worldometers. Obviously a single day doesn’t mean much but it is a substantial change. Mostly it’s due to less deaths in NYC but of course most of the rise was due to NYC also. I see no discussion of this in the media, despite constant coverage.

Image
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" | Warren Buffett

madbrain
Posts: 5530
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by madbrain » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:58 pm

JAZZISCOOL wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:06 pm
Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society

Researchers to test thousands for immunity as Berlin plans exit strategy for pandemic lock down

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... arantined/

This looks very interesting. A couple people on Twitter seem excited about it FWIW.
Interesting, but looks premature. We still don't know for sure if people can be reinfected by the virus later on. Nevertheless, antibody testing would be very good, though I'm not sure about the value of any certificates.

madbrain
Posts: 5530
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by madbrain » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:00 pm

eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm
US deaths dropped by half From the previous day today on worldometers. Obviously a single day doesn’t mean much but it is a substantial change. Mostly it’s due to less deaths in NYC but of course most of the rise was due to NYC also. I see no discussion of this in the media, despite constant coverage.
The day isn't over yet here on the west coast. The data for 3/29 is incomplete.

jay22
Posts: 789
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:56 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by jay22 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:08 pm

Really worried for FL - it is a disaster waiting for happen with the number of seniors there.

User avatar
eye.surgeon
Posts: 609
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:19 pm
Location: California

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by eye.surgeon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:12 pm

madbrain wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:00 pm
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm
US deaths dropped by half From the previous day today on worldometers. Obviously a single day doesn’t mean much but it is a substantial change. Mostly it’s due to less deaths in NYC but of course most of the rise was due to NYC also. I see no discussion of this in the media, despite constant coverage.
The day isn't over yet here on the west coast. The data for 3/29 is incomplete.
It’s not incomplete. Worldometers uses GMT because it’s a worldwide report. It’s consistently reporting at the same time every 24 hours at midnight GMT so it’s an apples to apples daily comparison going back to the first reported death.
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" | Warren Buffett

quantAndHold
Posts: 4671
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by quantAndHold » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:26 pm

eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm
US deaths dropped by half From the previous day today on worldometers. Obviously a single day doesn’t mean much but it is a substantial change. Mostly it’s due to less deaths in NYC but of course most of the rise was due to NYC also. I see no discussion of this in the media, despite constant coverage.

Image
I wouldn’t read anything into that. I’ve noticed that numbers on Sundays tend to be lower, then things pick back up again on Monday. The same thing is happening in Italy. I suspect it’s a reporting issue because of the weekend.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

User avatar
eye.surgeon
Posts: 609
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:19 pm
Location: California

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by eye.surgeon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:26 pm
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm
US deaths dropped by half From the previous day today on worldometers. Obviously a single day doesn’t mean much but it is a substantial change. Mostly it’s due to less deaths in NYC but of course most of the rise was due to NYC also. I see no discussion of this in the media, despite constant coverage.

Image
I wouldn’t read anything into that. I’ve noticed that numbers on Sundays tend to be lower, then things pick back up again on Monday. The same thing is happening in Italy. I suspect it’s a reporting issue because of the weekend.
I’m certainly not reading too much into a single day reporting but there is no indication on worldometers that Sunday reporting is lower than other days. Every reported Sunday thus far has been an increase from the previous day at least in the US.

I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.

We will see what the trend is over the next few days and weeks of course.
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" | Warren Buffett

SC Anteater
Posts: 327
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:50 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by SC Anteater » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:53 pm

I'd really like an antibody test. I was sick mid-Feb. with something that started first with a cough, which most things don't. Was dry at first but then turned productive. Fever for about 3 days, malaise, even had the screwed up eyes took about 2 weeks for the cough to go away and was worst lying down.

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1978
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:12 am

eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm
I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.
It hasn't been about news for a long time, it is now about clicks and ratings. Name one "reporter" that is trusted 1% of what Walter Cronkite was.

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1978
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:13 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:12 am
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm
I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.
It hasn't been about news for a long time, it is now about clicks and ratings. Name one "reporter" that is trusted 1% of what Walter Cronkite was.
SC Anteater wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:53 pm
I'd really like an antibody test. I was sick mid-Feb. with something that started first with a cough, which most things don't. Was dry at first but then turned productive. Fever for about 3 days, malaise, even had the screwed up eyes took about 2 weeks for the cough to go away and was worst lying down.
Do you live in an area where the virus is now wide spread?

quantAndHold
Posts: 4671
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:09 am

eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm

I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.

We will see what the trend is over the next few days and weeks of course.
The lack of reporting might have to do with the fact that anyone who’s actually been following along and understands math knows that we’re nowhere near any peak for deaths in the US, and a drop in deaths at this point has to be some sort of anomaly. Deaths happen several weeks after exposure. The peak in deaths follows about 3 weeks behind the strict social distancing, and strict social distancing, has only been happening in the hotspots for a week or two, and isn’t really even happening yet in the places that are about to become hot.

We’re going to be at this for awhile.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

madbrain
Posts: 5530
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by madbrain » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:17 am

curmudgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:04 pm
The point of antibody tests is that they are not dependent on when you did or did not have active virus samples (as in the current testing). The antibody tests find the protective characteristics in your bloodstream which show that your body has fought off the virus in the past (and is in theory protected now). This lets you identify the people who had mild or no symptoms, but did have the virus, at some point in the past.
This assumes these antibodies provide continued immunity against the virus in the future, which we still don't know for sure. But China is ramping back up in Wuhan, so there is a good chance that they do.

vested1
Posts: 2096
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:20 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vested1 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:48 am

technovelist wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:45 pm
folkher0 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:37 pm
vested1 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:30 pm
Turbo29 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:15 pm
People are delusional if they think people will put up with being kept locked in for months. I predict major trouble in the US also if these total lockdown orders go on for more than a few weeks.
Thus the surge in gun purchases by those who are more likely to shoot themselves or their family than an intruder. Lord of the Flies on a grand scale. Luckily there are currently more examples of those who go out of their way to help others than to take from them.

Case in point: folkher0
I can’t tell if you think I am homicidal, suicidal, or altruistic.
I'm pretty sure vested1 meant altruistic.
Yes, of course, thank you. Although in the coming months ahead we may all have fleeting thoughts of each. I remain hopeful that human nature is more altruistic than homicidal.

folkher0
Posts: 354
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:48 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:46 am

eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm
US deaths dropped by half From the previous day today on worldometers. Obviously a single day doesn’t mean much but it is a substantial change. Mostly it’s due to less deaths in NYC but of course most of the rise was due to NYC also. I see no discussion of this in the media, despite constant coverage.

Image
Its Sunday.

There's a reporting delay.

Honestly?

rkhusky
Posts: 9455
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:08 am

Many metrics are slowing down: tests results returned, positive tests, hospitalizations and deaths. And they have been slowing for the last couple of days. We will see if this trend continues for the next couple of days. If so, perhaps the curves are bending. And they would need to be bending now, in order to see the peak in mid-April, as many are predicting, such as https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

User avatar
tennisplyr
Posts: 2585
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:53 pm
Location: Sarasota, FL

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by tennisplyr » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:20 am

I see many people who are paralyzed with fear altering their lives and personalities...shutting themselves down to any hope. Too bad, I have personally been shutdown for offering encouraging words.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

User avatar
tennisplyr
Posts: 2585
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:53 pm
Location: Sarasota, FL

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by tennisplyr » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:22 am

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:08 am
Many metrics are slowing down: tests results returned, positive tests, hospitalizations and deaths. And they have been slowing for the last couple of days. We will see if this trend continues for the next couple of days. If so, perhaps the curves are bending. And they would need to be bending now, in order to see the peak in mid-April, as many are predicting, such as https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

Yes, here in my area they had to close a testing center due to lack of demand.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

rkhusky
Posts: 9455
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:26 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:09 am
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm

I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.

We will see what the trend is over the next few days and weeks of course.
The lack of reporting might have to do with the fact that anyone who’s actually been following along and understands math knows that we’re nowhere near any peak for deaths in the US, and a drop in deaths at this point has to be some sort of anomaly. Deaths happen several weeks after exposure. The peak in deaths follows about 3 weeks behind the strict social distancing, and strict social distancing, has only been happening in the hotspots for a week or two, and isn’t really even happening yet in the places that are about to become hot.
You should be initially looking for the lowering of the exponential rate factor and then looking for the end of exponential growth. Evidence for either of these is cause for celebration.

User avatar
WoodSpinner
Posts: 1484
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:15 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by WoodSpinner » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:44 am

(Dup)
Last edited by WoodSpinner on Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
WoodSpinner
Posts: 1484
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:15 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by WoodSpinner » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am

Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
Texas, Georgia, South Carolina come to mind. Florida is way late to the game.
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!

It’s a moving target at this point and I haven’t kept up in detail.

My main point is that it’s not a uniform coordinated response.

WoodSpinner

goblue100
Posts: 1216
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:31 am

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by goblue100 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:15 am

WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am
Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
Texas, Georgia, South Carolina come to mind. Florida is way late to the game.
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!

It’s a moving target at this point and I haven’t kept up in detail.

My main point is that it’s not a uniform coordinated response.

WoodSpinner
I live in the DFW area of Texas. It is not business as usual. The state has not ordered a statewide stay at home because Texas is so big. What is right for DFW may not be right for Marfa. Each county is tasked with implementing a stay at home order. Most of the counties in the Dallas area have some version of the stay at home order. I'm not sure about Houston, but for some reason they have not had a high instance of the disease, so I believe they are not under stay at home down there.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

technovelist
Posts: 3286
Joined: Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:02 pm
Contact:

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by technovelist » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:21 am

WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am
Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
Texas, Georgia, South Carolina come to mind. Florida is way late to the game.
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!

It’s a moving target at this point and I haven’t kept up in detail.

My main point is that it’s not a uniform coordinated response.

WoodSpinner
Not Texas. Abbott has issued a number of fairly significant executive orders, including stopping cars with Louisiana license plates when entering the state: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/texas ... r-BB11SGkU
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

iceman
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:18 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by iceman » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:27 am

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:26 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:09 am
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm

I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.

We will see what the trend is over the next few days and weeks of course.
The lack of reporting might have to do with the fact that anyone who’s actually been following along and understands math knows that we’re nowhere near any peak for deaths in the US, and a drop in deaths at this point has to be some sort of anomaly. Deaths happen several weeks after exposure. The peak in deaths follows about 3 weeks behind the strict social distancing, and strict social distancing, has only been happening in the hotspots for a week or two, and isn’t really even happening yet in the places that are about to become hot.
You should be initially looking for the lowering of the exponential rate factor and then looking for the end of exponential growth. Evidence for either of these is cause for celebration.
I agree. I have been pointing out the exponential growth, but have also said the virus isn't bound to a mathematical function. The math is a reflection of a number of factors in any given area. The social distancing measures that have been put in place might not be as severe as other places, but it still stands that we'd expect to see some change; given those measures first started 3/16 and picked up steam by the end of that week, it stands that we'd be begin see the impacts of that now or this week.

At the same time, I still like to hear firsthand accounts like folkher0's. A decline in confirmed cases could reflect a reality where only those admitted to the hospital are tested. A slowing hospitalization rate could be reflecting a more rapid discharge rate (getting people out sooner than they would if there were no capacity issues) in order to "keep up". Deaths are deaths and are unfortunately one metric that may be most reliable; but they also are the indicator with the most lag so becomes harder to understand which measures had what impact.

I think another poster made a point about people wanting to be pessimistic or looking for the worst. For me, earlier this weekend, I was very concerned about the possibility of restrictions easing in mid-April. I wanted to make sure others understood why I thought that was unwise. I am relieved to see that is not being considered now and am more optimistic about avoiding worst-case scenarios because of it.

User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 4394
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by Stinky » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:30 am

WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am
Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
Texas, Georgia, South Carolina come to mind. Florida is way late to the game.
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!

It’s a moving target at this point and I haven’t kept up in detail.

My main point is that it’s not a uniform coordinated response.

WoodSpinner
Yes, it's definitely not a uniform response. Some areas with larger problems have tighter restrictions than others. I believe that every place in the country has restrictions of some kind.

I think that a customized response by area is a feature of our "federal" system of government. In many areas of our lives, decision about governing are kept at the local/state level, rather than being subjected to a "one size fits all" federal mandate.

To argue about whether such a "federal" system is right or wrong would quickly turn political, which is outside the rules of this Forum. But that's the system that we live under in the US.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

webbie90
Posts: 69
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:52 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by webbie90 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:36 am

goblue100 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:15 am
WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am
Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
Texas, Georgia, South Carolina come to mind. Florida is way late to the game.
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!

It’s a moving target at this point and I haven’t kept up in detail.

My main point is that it’s not a uniform coordinated response.

WoodSpinner
I live in the DFW area of Texas. It is not business as usual. The state has not ordered a statewide stay at home because Texas is so big. What is right for DFW may not be right for Marfa. Each county is tasked with implementing a stay at home order. Most of the counties in the Dallas area have some version of the stay at home order. I'm not sure about Houston, but for some reason they have not had a high instance of the disease, so I believe they are not under stay at home down there.
Here's an example of what can happen if counties assume that risk is low if they have no reported cases:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... r-outbreak

60 people attended a choir rehearsal at a church. Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

The county where this happened in Washington had reported ZERO cases, schools and businesses remained open, and prohibitions on large gatherings had yet to be announced.

SilverGirl
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:55 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by SilverGirl » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:52 am

Beensabu wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:16 pm
Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
The ones without any state-wide stay-at-home orders at this time:

Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Iowa**
Kentucky*
Maine**
Maryland*
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska**
Nevada*
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia*
Wyoming

* Non-essential businesses closed
**No state-wide school closure orders; school closures vary by district
In AZ we are definitely not business as usual. Restaurants and gyms and all nonessential business is closed. Public parks are closed. Daycare can serve up to 10 people in a room, only those essential workers.

User avatar
WoodSpinner
Posts: 1484
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:15 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by WoodSpinner » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:55 am

Stinky wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:30 am
WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am
Stinky wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness!
Which states are “business as usual”?
Texas, Georgia, South Carolina come to mind. Florida is way late to the game.
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!

It’s a moving target at this point and I haven’t kept up in detail.

My main point is that it’s not a uniform coordinated response.

WoodSpinner
Yes, it's definitely not a uniform response. Some areas with larger problems have tighter restrictions than others. I believe that every place in the country has restrictions of some kind.

I think that a customized response by area is a feature of our "federal" system of government. In many areas of our lives, decision about governing are kept at the local/state level, rather than being subjected to a "one size fits all" federal mandate.

To argue about whether such a "federal" system is right or wrong would quickly turn political, which is outside the rules of this Forum. But that's the system that we live under in the US.
Actually it is a choice. There are emergency powers that could be used to change things.

WoodSpinner

mouses
Posts: 4217
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:24 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by mouses » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:58 am

MarginalUtility wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:04 pm
This evening, Trump predicted that deaths from the pandemic will peak in two weeks.

This prediction seems abjectly unrealistic, if not mathematically impossible, because infections are increasing exponentially and there is a substantial lag between infection and death.
I've seen two models that say new infections per day peak in the US in April or first week in May, varying by state.

Trump has presumably confused new infections with deaths.

mouses
Posts: 4217
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:24 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by mouses » Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:04 am


rkhusky
Posts: 9455
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:13 am

mouses wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:58 am
MarginalUtility wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:04 pm
This evening, Trump predicted that deaths from the pandemic will peak in two weeks.

This prediction seems abjectly unrealistic, if not mathematically impossible, because infections are increasing exponentially and there is a substantial lag between infection and death.
I've seen two models that say new infections per day peak in the US in April or first week in May, varying by state.

Trump has presumably confused new infections with deaths.
Or meant that deaths per day would start decreasing in mid April, i.e. there would be a peak in a deaths per day versus day plot, which others are also saying, e.g. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 14748
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by HomerJ » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:23 am

WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!
What's wrong with camping? Serious question.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

SC Anteater
Posts: 327
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:50 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by SC Anteater » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:29 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:13 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:12 am
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm
I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.
It hasn't been about news for a long time, it is now about clicks and ratings. Name one "reporter" that is trusted 1% of what Walter Cronkite was.
SC Anteater wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:53 pm
I'd really like an antibody test. I was sick mid-Feb. with something that started first with a cough, which most things don't. Was dry at first but then turned productive. Fever for about 3 days, malaise, even had the screwed up eyes took about 2 weeks for the cough to go away and was worst lying down.
Do you live in an area where the virus is now wide spread?
I live in the SF Bay Area. My county has cases but isn't one of the hardest hit ones. But who knows what was happening mid-Feb. -- there certainly weren't any tests happening.

quantAndHold
Posts: 4671
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:44 am

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:26 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:09 am
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm

I just find it curious that when deaths doubled in a day it was headline news. When they drop by half you have to dig deep to even find out it happened.

We will see what the trend is over the next few days and weeks of course.
The lack of reporting might have to do with the fact that anyone who’s actually been following along and understands math knows that we’re nowhere near any peak for deaths in the US, and a drop in deaths at this point has to be some sort of anomaly. Deaths happen several weeks after exposure. The peak in deaths follows about 3 weeks behind the strict social distancing, and strict social distancing, has only been happening in the hotspots for a week or two, and isn’t really even happening yet in the places that are about to become hot.
You should be initially looking for the lowering of the exponential rate factor and then looking for the end of exponential growth. Evidence for either of these is cause for celebration.
Agreed. Basically the problem with thinking, at this early stage, that a lower number of deaths one day is anything, is that it takes several weeks between when someone gets exposed and when they die. The timeline is like this:

Day 0 - exposure
Day 6-7 - first symptoms
Day 14 - test result comes back
Day 21-28 - they die

So in places that have locked down sufficiently, the number of people being exposed drops immediately (which is invisible), the number of new cases will flatten in a meaningful way about 2 weeks later, and the number of deaths peaks another week or so after that.

Places that locked down early (California, Washington to an extent) are seeing a flattening of new cases. But no place else in the US is far enough along in their lockdown for the benefits to be visible yet.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

User avatar
eye.surgeon
Posts: 609
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:19 pm
Location: California

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by eye.surgeon » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:52 am

delete
Last edited by eye.surgeon on Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" | Warren Buffett

quantAndHold
Posts: 4671
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:56 am

HomerJ wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:23 am
WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 am
Arizona still has BLM land open for camping!
What's wrong with camping? Serious question.
Camping involves more social interaction than staying home. Traveling to a new place, gas, propane, groceries, interacting with rangers and camp hosts.

The other problem is that more people than normal are wanting to do it, so campgrounds have had to close because of crowds. One friend described an Oregon state park campground that is usually just RV’s, as being full of tent campers, with six people on every site. No social distancing possible.

BLM land in AZ is better positioned for social distancing than most camping locations, but people still need to go into town to get groceries, propane, water, and dump, and it only takes 1 infected person to spread it to the local population of a rural area that doesn’t have a lot of healthcare options.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

ThankYouJack
Posts: 3373
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:27 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:57 am

eye.surgeon wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:52 am
folkher0 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:46 am
eye.surgeon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm
US deaths dropped by half From the previous day today on worldometers. Obviously a single day doesn’t mean much but it is a substantial change. Mostly it’s due to less deaths in NYC but of course most of the rise was due to NYC also. I see no discussion of this in the media, despite constant coverage.

Image
Its Sunday.

There's a reporting delay.

Honestly?
There is no evidence of any reporting delays on previous Sundays if you actually look at the data. I'm also looking at the next day reporting now and there's no indication that Sunday cases are being reported on Monday due to a delay.
It's now up to 362 for yesterday - so definitely a delay as it was around 265 a couple hours ago and when you posted the chart.

We can all hope it doesn't go up more than that but seems like it will

dcare
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:33 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by dcare » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:12 am

From https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ - I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the data, but it does seem in line with the other online data sets I have viewed.

Deaths on Sunday INCREASED from Saturday by 463.

Date States &
Territories Positive Negative Pending Hospitalized Deaths Total test results
Positive + Negative
29 Mar 2020 Sun 56 139,061 692,290 65,549 19,730 2,428 831,351
28 Mar 2020 Sat 56 118,234 617,470 65,712 16,729 1,965 735,704

The percentage of deaths per positive case is increasing - below are the past 10 days.
The percentage increase of deaths on a day to day basis MAY be decreasing/stabilized, we will be able to tell more in a few days.
1.75
1.66
1.54
1.44
1.41
1.30
1.12
1.25
1.17
1.29

Locked