[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

[folkher0]

I am in the process of developing a plan "b" for my family members which involves driving them to a less populated area's hospital if my 5 local hospitals are overrun and someone in my family needs medical attention. I am not aware of any regional coordination plans in regards to this but I assume they exist. I'm not sure I want to trust my family's health to bureaucratic decision-makers.

My sister works at a smaller semi-rural hospital. They have a tent set up outside where they check people for coronavirus. If you have it, they ship you to a larger, more urban hospital. They are only handling non-coronavirus cases inside the hospital.

Thanks for that info. I found an article regarding a regional plan for my area, although there are no specifics. Apparently it encompasses surrounding states as well although the president just tweeted something that contradicts that info which I won't get into. Plans are great, but like Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

It isn't clear to me that the President can enforce his plans if the states have other ideas, and in my area of the country strong governors are running things. They have had to since the feds were MIA and still seem to be incoherent.

The things the states are asking the feds for is equipment and testing. Some of that is getting off the ground, but I'm not sure who has the credit for that.

To be fair, the way public health is structured in the US is largely at the state level. CDC usually contributes with guidelines and support for local outbreaks. The current situation is way beyond anything the CDC can handle. By law the CDC needs to be invited by a particular state to intervene. Obviously that has happened, but it has to happen 50 times under 50 different sets of rules.

Cumbersome. In my opinion, it is one of the main reasons why the US public health response has been so atrocious.

State departments of public health are generally very underfunded, per the priorities of state and local governments.

That being said, I do not believe it is productive for state and national leaders to fight about resources. In the situation we are in, if a state government asks the federal government for help under an emergency or disaster situation, the executive branch should act quickly and decisively to support the states.

Again (in my opinion). That has not happened.

[vested1]

perspective.

Keep this chart updated and we will see how it ages.

Charts can prove any point you'd like them to, depending on the criteria and an equal starting point, such as number of infections and deaths measured from the 1st appearance of each, methods of testing, tests per capita, and aggressiveness of isolation policy. Here's another statistic:

Population per square mile

Italy - 197
Spain - 210
Switzerland - 490
United States 84
New York State - 421
New York City - 27,000

Edited to update numbers per a single source for separate countries.

https://www.infoplease.com/world/popula ... -countries

[Novine]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

[bayview]

For those who keep saying ”80% are mild; you might not even know that you have it”, please read through this guy’s story. He’s in his 30’s. Wasn’t hospitalized, therefore categorized as “mild.”

He definitely knows that he has it. Three weeks later, he’s still sick, by the way.

It’s still not clear that enough people in the US are taking this virus seriously. Here’s an account from one survivor:


https://mobile.twitter.com/ShirazMaher/ ... ASyogonBWA

[folkher0]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

My main reason for participating in this thread (aside from fighting the crushing boredom of being at home when I’m usually at work), is to make sure, that in this small community, reality is presented.

On the internet the loudest voice seems to win.

[Will do good]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

My main reason for participating in this thread (aside from fighting the crushing boredom of being at home when I’m usually at work), is to make sure, that in this small community, reality is presented.

On the internet the loudest voice seems to win.

+1, so please speak up.

[LadyGeek]

^^^ Within reason. In general, remove emotion and state concerns in a civil, factual manner.

[Cash is King]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

Maybe, or comments from others screaming chicken little will not look so good in a couple of weeks.

[folkher0]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

Maybe, or comments from others screaming chicken little will not look so good in a couple of weeks.

No one would be happier than me.

[GCD]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

This thread is a good example of a thread that would be prohibited under normal circumstances. See Unacceptable Topics: rules#section-4

This thread manages to incorporate all 3 banned topics: medical, nonactionable and political. Now you can quibble about whether this thread really violates board rules or not, but the general aim of those rules seems to be to avoid the typical internet debate that is utterly unresolvable and that gets bogged down in dogmatic squabbling. I think this thread has been at that point for a long time.

And the arrogance of some posters claiming they are here to "explain" to everyone who doesn't completely buy into their view. Ugh.

[Cash is King]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

Maybe, or comments from others screaming chicken little will not look so good in a couple of weeks.

No one would be happier than me.

I'm sure. Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

[ResearchMed]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

This thread is a good example of a thread that would be prohibited under normal circumstances. See Unacceptable Topics: rules#section-4

This thread manages to incorporate all 3 banned topics: medical, nonactionable and political. Now you can quibble about whether this thread really violates board rules or not, but the general aim of those rules seems to be to avoid the typical internet debate that is utterly unresolvable and that gets bogged down in dogmatic squabbling. I think this thread has been at that point for a long time.

And the arrogance of some posters claiming they are here to "explain" to everyone who doesn't completely buy into their view. Ugh.

And I think that quibbling about "board rules" is also prohibited (supposed to contact mods).
So that makes 4 banned topics

OTOH, these are unusual times, and many of us appreciate a bit of flexibility as long as the posts are not inappropriately hostile/etc., or posting potentially dangerous info.

RM

[nps]

For those who keep saying ”80% are mild; you might not even know that you have it”, please read through this guy’s story. He’s in his 30’s. Wasn’t hospitalized, therefore categorized as “mild.”

He definitely knows that he has it. Three weeks later, he’s still sick, by the way.

It’s still not clear that enough people in the US are taking this virus seriously. Here’s an account from one survivor:


https://mobile.twitter.com/ShirazMaher/ ... ASyogonBWA

There are many stories like that on social media and in the news. There is also this though:

"With the current coronavirus, researchers are also finding that there are more asymptomatic cases than were known early on in the pandemic. Classified data from the Chinese government that was reported in the South China Morning Post indicated that up to a third of all people who tested positive for the coronavirus could have been silent carriers. Widespread testing on the Diamond Princess showed that half of the positive cases on board the cruise ship had no symptoms. And officials in Iceland, who have tested a high proportion of citizens in the country, have found similarly high percentages of asymptomatic infection."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/heal ... masks.html

[folkher0]

...

I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person.

...

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

Maybe, or comments from others screaming chicken little will not look so good in a couple of weeks.

No one would be happier than me.

I'm sure. Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

Thanks for your kind words. I’ll try.

But I have to say, once again, that focusing on new cases per day, mortality rates, daily trajectory etc. misses the point entirely.

My hospital system is over capacity with covid. A military hospital ship is docking in New York. Another is in LA. The convention center in New York is being converted to a field hospital. I heard McCormack place in Chicago is doing the same. Henry Ford hospital in Detroit is full of COVID. I’m sure many others are too.

Has any of this happened before?

This does not happen with seasonal flu. Even if it did. Would you be comfortable accepting that, in addition to seasonal flu, thousands (at least) will die in the next few months?

This is actually happening. If this were a movie you would say it could never happen. But it is happening. I’m sorry, but it is.

I know it’s hard to wrap your head around it. The weather is getting nice. No one you know is sick. It’s hard for me too.

But doing mental gymnastics to avoid the reality and just hoping it’s gonna get better is (again, my humble opinion) not a good plan.

[ThankYouJack]

Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

But assuming it's based on EST there's still 7 hours left in the day. I'm trying to be optimistic too, but don't you think the number will surpass yesterday's total?

[corysold]

For those who keep saying ”80% are mild; you might not even know that you have it”, please read through this guy’s story. He’s in his 30’s. Wasn’t hospitalized, therefore categorized as “mild.”

He definitely knows that he has it. Three weeks later, he’s still sick, by the way.

It’s still not clear that enough people in the US are taking this virus seriously. Here’s an account from one survivor:


https://mobile.twitter.com/ShirazMaher/ ... ASyogonBWA

So maybe he wasn't part of that 80%?

There are plenty of reports of people who have tested positive who report very mild symptoms.

It seems this runs quite the gamut of cases. Some don't even know they are sick. Others are dying. A group in the middle ends up in the hospital.

[Cash is King]

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although there are still some trying to use "data" to paint a "well, it's not as bad as Italy" view. None of those people's comments will look good in a few weeks.

Maybe, or comments from others screaming chicken little will not look so good in a couple of weeks.

No one would be happier than me.

I'm sure. Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

Thanks for your kind words. I’ll try.

But I have to say, once again, that focusing on new cases per day, mortality rates, daily trajectory etc. misses the point entirely.

My hospital system is over capacity with covid. A military hospital ship is docking in New York. Another is in LA. The convention center in New York is being converted to a field hospital. I heard McCormack place in Chicago is doing the same. Henry Ford hospital in Detroit is full of COVID. I’m sure many others are too.

Has any of this happened before?

This does not happen with seasonal flu. Even if it did. Would you be comfortable accepting that, in addition to seasonal flu, thousands (at least) will die in the next few months?

This is actually happening. If this were a movie you would say it could never happen. But it is happening. I’m sorry, but it is.

I know it’s hard to wrap your head around it. The weather is getting nice. No one you know is sick. It’s hard for me too.

But doing mental gymnastics to avoid the reality and just hoping it’s gonna get better is (again, my humble opinion) not a good plan.

I guess you can ignore the data but I would not agree with that approach. Maybe, NY needs more aggressive mitigation. Will see.

[Cash is King]

Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

But assuming it's based on EST there's still 7 hours left in the day. I'm trying to be optimistic too, but don't you think the number will surpass yesterday's total?

I would hope not.

[webbie90]

For those who keep saying ”80% are mild; you might not even know that you have it”, please read through this guy’s story. He’s in his 30’s. Wasn’t hospitalized, therefore categorized as “mild.”

He definitely knows that he has it. Three weeks later, he’s still sick, by the way.

It’s still not clear that enough people in the US are taking this virus seriously. Here’s an account from one survivor:


https://mobile.twitter.com/ShirazMaher/ ... ASyogonBWA

So maybe he wasn't part of that 80%?

There are plenty of reports of people who have tested positive who report very mild symptoms.

It seems this runs quite the gamut of cases. Some don't even know they are sick. Others are dying. A group in the middle ends up in the hospital.

My understanding is that the 80% includes everyone who is not severe enough to be hospitalized. So included this group would be people who run a fever for 10 straight days, or take weeks to recover at home.

[ThankYouJack]

I had a conversation with a male coworker a few weeks ago about how so few guys wash their hands after going to the bathroom, even in a highly-educated, white collar work environment. If this epidemic gets people to wash their hands and sneeze and cough into their elbows, that might actually be a huge win for hygiene.

Most guys I see wash their hands, but that may be to social pressure if they see someone else in the bathroom. I always wash my hands and use soap, but would do it quickly - maybe 5 not 20 seconds.

Here's a neat video on germs spreading and washing hands. https://youtu.be/I5-dI74zxPg

[mouses]

I'm getting too lazy to include posts, but the stuff about mild cases. I was shocked to read a couple of examples of people who were turned away from hospitals and told they had mild cases, where mild apparently meant doesn't need a ventilator yet, when a normal person would have pitched them right into the hospital.

[folkher0]

Maybe, or comments from others screaming chicken little will not look so good in a couple of weeks.

No one would be happier than me.

I'm sure. Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

Thanks for your kind words. I’ll try.

But I have to say, once again, that focusing on new cases per day, mortality rates, daily trajectory etc. misses the point entirely.

My hospital system is over capacity with covid. A military hospital ship is docking in New York. Another is in LA. The convention center in New York is being converted to a field hospital. I heard McCormack place in Chicago is doing the same. Henry Ford hospital in Detroit is full of COVID. I’m sure many others are too.

Has any of this happened before?

This does not happen with seasonal flu. Even if it did. Would you be comfortable accepting that, in addition to seasonal flu, thousands (at least) will die in the next few months?

This is actually happening. If this were a movie you would say it could never happen. But it is happening. I’m sorry, but it is.

I know it’s hard to wrap your head around it. The weather is getting nice. No one you know is sick. It’s hard for me too.

But doing mental gymnastics to avoid the reality and just hoping it’s gonna get better is (again, my humble opinion) not a good plan.

I guess you can ignore the data but I would not agree with that approach. Maybe, NY needs more aggressive mitigation. Will see.

Please see any of my previous posts regarding daily infection counts and why I don’t find them helpful.

“Maybe, NY needs more aggressive mitigation.”

Friend, I don’t even know what that sentence means. In any case. The time for action was weeks ago.

We certainly will see.

[ImUrHuckleberry]

For those who keep saying ”80% are mild; you might not even know that you have it”, please read through this guy’s story. He’s in his 30’s. Wasn’t hospitalized, therefore categorized as “mild.”

He definitely knows that he has it. Three weeks later, he’s still sick, by the way.

It’s still not clear that enough people in the US are taking this virus seriously. Here’s an account from one survivor:


https://mobile.twitter.com/ShirazMaher/ ... ASyogonBWA

There are many stories like that on social media and in the news. There is also this though:

"With the current coronavirus, researchers are also finding that there are more asymptomatic cases than were known early on in the pandemic. Classified data from the Chinese government that was reported in the South China Morning Post indicated that up to a third of all people who tested positive for the coronavirus could have been silent carriers. Widespread testing on the Diamond Princess showed that half of the positive cases on board the cruise ship had no symptoms. And officials in Iceland, who have tested a high proportion of citizens in the country, have found similarly high percentages of asymptomatic infection."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/heal ... masks.html

I believe half were asymptomatic at the time of first being tested. However, only 18% remained symptom free. (Going from memory here - but it's something around that.)

[Tony-S]

This information is readily available and has been for a couple of months.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

What does the multiple strains thing mean in terms of a potential vaccine?

Unlike the four seasonal cold-causing coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be mutating as much in its spike protein, particularly the site where it binds to the cellular receptor, ACE2, nor it its protease cleavage site. This suggests that a vaccine, if developed, could be very useful and may provide long-term immunity.

[nigel_ht]

Sigh. You jumped in mid conversation and missed the point.

Yes, cloth masks suck compared to paper.

But, cloth masks are better than nothing and decrease the wearer from spreading infection.

The feeling is mutual! Why wear a cloth mask when you can make a more effective mask out of Kleenex and paper towels?

Any mask is better than no mask.
A home made mask with Kleenex in between is better than no Kleenex
A disposable paper mask is better still
N95 in public is overkill.

If somebody happened to own an N95 or comparable, they shouldn't use it for grocery shopping? Or maybe in the airport/on a flight (assuming they had no choice but to travel)?

An N95 is only needed with aerosolized particles. Coughing and sneezing is just droplets and a simple paper mask is plenty for that.

N95 should be saved for the healthcare workers that are doing airway procedures.

We donated to buy N95 masks for the local hospital. They are getting a shipment air freighted in.

As long as China doesn’t get slammed again it seems shipments aren’t happening.

[nigel_ht]

Maybe, or comments from others screaming chicken little will not look so good in a couple of weeks.

No one would be happier than me.

I'm sure. Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

Thanks for your kind words. I’ll try.

But I have to say, once again, that focusing on new cases per day, mortality rates, daily trajectory etc. misses the point entirely.

My hospital system is over capacity with covid. A military hospital ship is docking in New York. Another is in LA. The convention center in New York is being converted to a field hospital. I heard McCormack place in Chicago is doing the same. Henry Ford hospital in Detroit is full of COVID. I’m sure many others are too.

Has any of this happened before?

This does not happen with seasonal flu. Even if it did. Would you be comfortable accepting that, in addition to seasonal flu, thousands (at least) will die in the next few months?

This is actually happening. If this were a movie you would say it could never happen. But it is happening. I’m sorry, but it is.

I know it’s hard to wrap your head around it. The weather is getting nice. No one you know is sick. It’s hard for me too.

But doing mental gymnastics to avoid the reality and just hoping it’s gonna get better is (again, my humble opinion) not a good plan.

I guess you can ignore the data but I would not agree with that approach. Maybe, NY needs more aggressive mitigation. Will see.

Lol, you’re telling a NY doc that it’s not so bad and it’s just like the flu.

[Cash is King]

No one would be happier than me.

I'm sure. Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

Thanks for your kind words. I’ll try.

But I have to say, once again, that focusing on new cases per day, mortality rates, daily trajectory etc. misses the point entirely.

My hospital system is over capacity with covid. A military hospital ship is docking in New York. Another is in LA. The convention center in New York is being converted to a field hospital. I heard McCormack place in Chicago is doing the same. Henry Ford hospital in Detroit is full of COVID. I’m sure many others are too.

Has any of this happened before?

This does not happen with seasonal flu. Even if it did. Would you be comfortable accepting that, in addition to seasonal flu, thousands (at least) will die in the next few months?

This is actually happening. If this were a movie you would say it could never happen. But it is happening. I’m sorry, but it is.

I know it’s hard to wrap your head around it. The weather is getting nice. No one you know is sick. It’s hard for me too.

But doing mental gymnastics to avoid the reality and just hoping it’s gonna get better is (again, my humble opinion) not a good plan.

I guess you can ignore the data but I would not agree with that approach. Maybe, NY needs more aggressive mitigation. Will see.

Lol, you’re telling a NY doc that it’s not so bad and it’s just like the flu.

Did I say it's just like the flu? No. I did I say it's not so bad? No. Feel free to continue to mock me.

[KlangFool]

Did I say it's just like the flu? No. I did I say it's not so bad? No. Feel free to continue to mock me.

Cash is King,

Please explain to us why do you think that it is not so bad. We would like to have this on record and we can check back your answer in a few weeks.

KlangFool

[protagonist]

Worldometer has not shown any new cases in China in quite awhile- at least a week. They are in third place now.
I find that hard to believe, given the severity of the epidemic there.
Is news just not getting out?

[Cash is King]

Did I say it's just like the flu? No. I did I say it's not so bad? No. Feel free to continue to mock me.

Cash is King,

Please explain to us why do you think that it is not so bad. We would like to have this on record and we can check back your answer in a few weeks.

KlangFool

Klangfool,
Where in my exchange with the NY doctor did I say it's not that bad?

[KlangFool]

Did I say it's just like the flu? No. I did I say it's not so bad? No. Feel free to continue to mock me.

Cash is King,

Please explain to us why do you think that it is not so bad. We would like to have this on record and we can check back your answer in a few weeks.

KlangFool

Klangfool,
Where in my exchange with the NY doctor did I say it's not that bad?

Okay. Then, my apology for misunderstanding your post.

KlangFool

[Stinky]

Worldometer has not shown any new cases in China in quite awhile- at least a week. They are in third place now.
I find that hard to believe, given the severity of the epidemic there.
Is news just not getting out?

I wouldn’t trust much of anything the Chinese government says about this topic

[LadyGeek]

From: Re: What are you listening to now

A link from a colleague in lockdown in Peru. I've always loved Queen and Freddie. The adaptation has a lot of wisdom.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KPbJ0- ... atch_on_yt

The youtube title: Coronavirus Rhapsody

[Cash is King]

Did I say it's just like the flu? No. I did I say it's not so bad? No. Feel free to continue to mock me.

Cash is King,

Please explain to us why do you think that it is not so bad. We would like to have this on record and we can check back your answer in a few weeks.

KlangFool

Klangfool,
Where in my exchange with the NY doctor did I say it's not that bad?

Okay. Then, my apology for misunderstanding your post.

KlangFool

Thanks. I was simply trying to be optimistic that the current numbers were better than yesterday. That's not meant to mean that NY is out of the woods.

Cheers.

[folkher0]

Did I say it's just like the flu? No. I did I say it's not so bad? No. Feel free to continue to mock me.

Cash is King,

Please explain to us why do you think that it is not so bad. We would like to have this on record and we can check back your answer in a few weeks.

KlangFool

Klangfool,
Where in my exchange with the NY doctor did I say it's not that bad?

Okay. Then, my apology for misunderstanding your post.

KlangFool

Thanks. I was simply trying to be optimistic that the current numbers were better than yesterday. That's not meant to mean that NY is out of the woods.

Cheers.

Thank you. I hope you are right.

[cjking]

3) The UK is the country advocating this approach.

I just want to correct you on this, as I think you've said it more than once recently on this thread, and it's not true. Going from memory, and without checking my dates, I think the "herd immunity" policy was abandoned two weeks ago, one week after it was announced.

What caused it to be abandoned was the Imperial College paper we've been talking about, the one with the 500K death figure if nothing done and 20K with suppression. Although the actual fact that produced the switch from mitigation to suppression was I think the prediction of ICU bed demand exceeding capacity. Below is a link to an article saying that paper changed policy in the UK and the US.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ ... uk-and-us/

Edit: here's a National Geographic article published a week ago that seems to confirm I got the dates roughly right.

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/sc ... ly-need-it

At first, the U.K. chose not to shut down large gatherings or introduce stringent social distancing measures. In a plan that surprised many in the medical community, officials instead described a plan to suppress the virus through gradual restrictions, rather than trying to stamp it out entirely.

The strategy, an attempt to build “herd immunity,” involved allowing “enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune,” Sir Patrick Vallance, the U.K. government’s chief scientific adviser, told Sky News on March 13.

If the risks of COVID-19 were not so high, it would technically be possible to bring about herd immunity by allowing the disease to run rampant through a population. However, evidence shows that scenario would lead to high rates of hospitalisation and need for critical care, straining health service capacity past the breaking point.

After new simulations of the outbreak from Imperial College London showed how badly hospitals would be overwhelmed, the U.K. suddenly reversed course on Monday and introduced new social distancing measures. By Friday, the Prime Minister had ordered all pubs, restaurants, gyms, and cinemas to close.

[Cash is King]

From: Re: What are you listening to now

A link from a colleague in lockdown in Peru. I've always loved Queen and Freddie. The adaptation has a lot of wisdom.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KPbJ0- ... atch_on_yt

The youtube title: Coronavirus Rhapsody

Thanks for sharing! Well done.

[KlangFool]

3) The UK is the country advocating this approach.

I just want to correct you on this, as I think you've said it more than once recently on this thread, and it's not true. Going from memory, and without checking my dates, I think the "herd immunity" policy was abandoned two weeks ago, one week after it was announced.

What caused it to be abandoned was the Imperial College paper we've been talking about, the one with the 500K death figure if nothing done and 20K with suppression. Although the actual fact that produced the switch from mitigation to suppression was I think the prediction of ICU bed demand exceeding capacity. Below is a link to an article saying that paper changed policy in the UK and the US.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ ... uk-and-us/

cjking,

<< I think the "herd immunity" policy was abandoned two weeks ago, one week after it was announced. >>

Action speaks louder than words.

1) UK did a minimum amount of testing.

2) UK did not shut down anything until this week.

3) UK's official policy is to ask older folks to stay home and do nothing else.

Please correct me if I am wrong. What concrete actions that the UK had taken and when it happened?

KlangFool

[kksmom]

From: Re: What are you listening to now

A link from a colleague in lockdown in Peru. I've always loved Queen and Freddie. The adaptation has a lot of wisdom.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KPbJ0- ... atch_on_yt

The youtube title: Coronavirus Rhapsody

Another one from Hongkong, in feb
Coronavirus version of Torn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_QXvh8fVPI

Theres a staying alive remake,(believe from uk)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmUXntGlqFI

[ThankYouJack]

Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

But assuming it's based on EST there's still 7 hours left in the day. I'm trying to be optimistic too, but don't you think the number will surpass yesterday's total?

I would hope not.

NY is up to 7,054 new cases and 277 new deaths today. Almost double what the deaths were yesterday and with 4 1/2 hours left in the day.

It would be interesting to look at logarithmic chart of just NY. Hopefully daily change will start trending down soon (or at least start slowing soon), but it seems like a very long road ahead.

[Cash is King]

Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

But assuming it's based on EST there's still 7 hours left in the day. I'm trying to be optimistic too, but don't you think the number will surpass yesterday's total?

I would hope not.

NY is up to 7,054 new cases and 277 new deaths today. Almost double what the deaths were yesterday and with 4 1/2 hours left in the day.

It would be interesting to look at logarithmic chart of just NY. Hopefully daily change will start trending down soon (or at least start slowing soon), but it seems like a very long road ahead.

You're right.

[webbie90]

Worldometer is currently showing NY with 6.056 new cases which is down from 7,285 yesterday. New deaths are down as well ,so hopefully the trends will continue. Stay safe.

But assuming it's based on EST there's still 7 hours left in the day. I'm trying to be optimistic too, but don't you think the number will surpass yesterday's total?

I would hope not.

NY is up to 7,054 new cases and 277 new deaths today. Almost double what the deaths were yesterday and with 4 1/2 hours left in the day.

It would be interesting to look at logarithmic chart of just NY. Hopefully daily change will start trending down soon (or at least start slowing soon), but it seems like a very long road ahead.

For the last few days I've noticed that worldometers has been posting a second batch of data from New York in the evening.

[cjking]

cjking,

<< I think the "herd immunity" policy was abandoned two weeks ago, one week after it was announced. >>

Action speaks louder than words.

1) UK did a minimum amount of testing.

2) UK did not shut down anything until this week.

3) UK's official policy is to ask older folks to stay home and do nothing else.

Please correct me if I am wrong. What concrete actions that the UK had taken and when it happened?

KlangFool

I wasn't looking for an argument, I just wanted to point out that something you could have truthfully said three weeks ago has not been true for the last two weeks. You will be able to confirm this for yourself with a few minute use of Google. Or by reading the updates I put into the post you're responding to, before I saw your reply.

You point 3 is very very wrong. As far as I know there is no single state in the the US with more restrictions than are in force in the whole of the UK currently. (Though I could be wrong, I'm probably even less familiar with US policy than your are with UK policy!) To illustrate just how wrong 3 is, it is currently illegal for anyone on the whole country to leave their home except for four very specific purposes. (One of those purposes is outdoor exercise, and it's been clarified during that week the people who drive to a scenic area where they want to walk or run are breaking the law, because their car trip is not an essential journey. I only mention this obscure point to illustrate the level of restriction.)

Here is the first article I found on Google that will give you some idea of the current rules.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -cannot-do

Edit: here are the official lockdown rules:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... rom-others

[tdmp]

Does anyone here still thinks this is "just the flu"?
I am very afraid of Covid-19. I have never heard of so many middle age folks get placed on the ventilator. Does influenza do that? Sure, it does, but not at the same rate. A hospital near me has 1 ventilator left in their ICU. In the USA: of all hospitalization for Covid-19: about 38% are age 54 or younger. Many people say that those with "underlying condition" are at risk; that is true, but what are the underlying condition? Cardiovascular disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disease. In the USA, the obesity rate is >36% (2016 data). So there are so many people with "underlying condition." Remember just b/c we have this Covid-19, the other "regular disease" doesn't just suddenly stop working to cause problems ie. heart attack, congestive heart failure, strokes, regular bacteria infection, regular season influenza, etc...it is Covid-19 on top of the other "regular disease." This puts even more pressure on hospital bed availability. Many people have been dismissive of this for weeks now. Many have changed their tune; and unfortunately, some still think it is "just the flu." I wish people would listen more. Before people venture out and do things unnecessarily, please think about all the hospital staff: physicians, nurses, RT, PT, OT, CNA, cafeteria workers, housekeeping staff, etc..Also, all those that work in "essential" business: pharmacy, groceries, food delivery, refineries, utilities, etc..A shout out to all these folks.....Honestly, they would work from home if they could. They all have families, and they all want to be around to see their families. When your oxygen saturation is low, and you are on the ventilator; the market would be the last thing you will be thinking about. What's worse is that you might actually die alone b/c many hospitals don't allow visitors. Stay safe everyone.

[KlangFool]

cjking,

<< I think the "herd immunity" policy was abandoned two weeks ago, one week after it was announced. >>

Action speaks louder than words.

1) UK did a minimum amount of testing.

2) UK did not shut down anything until this week.

3) UK's official policy is to ask older folks to stay home and do nothing else.

Please correct me if I am wrong. What concrete actions that the UK had taken and when it happened?

KlangFool

I wasn't looking for an argument, I just wanted to point out that something you could have truthfully said three weeks ago has not been true for the last two weeks. You will be able to confirm this for yourself with a few minute use of Google. Or by reading the updates I put into the post you're responding to, before I saw your reply.

You point 3 is very very wrong. As far as I know there is no single state in the the US with more restrictions than are in force in the whole of the UK currently. (Though I could be wrong, I'm probably even less familiar with US policy than your are with UK policy!) To illustrate just how wrong 3 is, it is currently illegal for anyone on the whole country to leave their home except for four very specific purposes. (One of those purposes is outdoor exercise, and it's been clarified during that week the people who drive to a scenic area where they want to walk or run are breaking the law, because their car trip is not an essential journey. I only mention this obscure point to illustrate the level of restriction.)

Here is the first article I found on Google that will give you some idea of the current rules.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -cannot-do

Edit: here are the official lockdown rules:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... rom-others

cjking,

<<You point 3 is very very wrong. As far as I know there is no single state in the the US with more restrictions than are in force in the whole of the UK currently.>>

Which proves my point. The UK did absolutely nothing until this week. That was my second point. What had UK done before this week? The only thing was point #3.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ncock-says

<<People over 70 will soon be asked to stay at home for up to four months to protect themselves from the risk of contracting coronavirus, the UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, has said.>>

Actually, I was wrong. The UK did absolutely nothing. It did not even do #3.

KlangFool

[Novine]

Does anyone here still thinks this is "just the flu"?
...

Now that the case counts and deaths are starting to mount here in the US, the "it's just the flu" crowd has moved on to comparing the number of deaths that have occurred in three months with the number of deaths annually caused by the seasonal flu, car accidents, etc. The goalposts keep moving as the virus continues to spread across the country. I hope it ends up being comparable to a "very bad flu season" but that would require a continuing lockdown combined with some medical breakthroughs that can be implemented widely and quickly. Otherwise, the trajectories look really bad.

[JonnyDVM]

Does anyone here still thinks this is "just the flu"?
...

Now that the case counts and deaths are starting to mount here in the US, the "it's just the flu" crowd has moved on to comparing the number of deaths that have occurred in three months with the number of deaths annually caused by the seasonal flu, car accidents, etc. The goalposts keep moving as the virus continues to spread across the country. I hope it ends up being comparable to a "very bad flu season" but that would require a continuing lockdown combined with some medical breakthroughs that can be implemented widely and quickly. Otherwise, the trajectories look really bad.

Yes they do. And at the risk of being banned again, there’s nothing you can do to convince them. I’ve decided some people just live to be contrarian. Their attitude has done us all a great disservice.

[webbie90]

Does anyone here still thinks this is "just the flu"?
...

Now that the case counts and deaths are starting to mount here in the US, the "it's just the flu" crowd has moved on to comparing the number of deaths that have occurred in three months with the number of deaths annually caused by the seasonal flu, car accidents, etc. The goalposts keep moving as the virus continues to spread across the country. I hope it ends up being comparable to a "very bad flu season" but that would require a continuing lockdown combined with some medical breakthroughs that can be implemented widely and quickly. Otherwise, the trajectories look really bad.

Here's a way I've started to frame it for the skeptics:

In 2019, about 7700 Americans died each day, on average. 515 Americans have died from the virus so far today. If the current rate of increase continues, in a little more than a week we'll have as many people in the U.S. dying of COVID-19 each day as all other causes combined.

[Katietsu]

Does anyone here still thinks this is "just the flu"?
...

Now that the case counts and deaths are starting to mount here in the US, the "it's just the flu" crowd has moved on to comparing the number of deaths that have occurred in three months with the number of deaths annually caused by the seasonal flu, car accidents, etc. The goalposts keep moving as the virus continues to spread across the country. I hope it ends up being comparable to a "very bad flu season" but that would require a continuing lockdown combined with some medical breakthroughs that can be implemented widely and quickly. Otherwise, the trajectories look really bad.

Here's a way I've started to frame it for the skeptics:

In 2019, about 7700 Americans died each day, on average. 515 Americans have died from the virus so far today. If the current rate of increase continues, in a little more than a week we'll have as many people in the U.S. dying of COVID-19 each day as all other causes combined.

I believe there will also be people who die or have long term detriment from other causes such as your car crash, heart attack or flu who would have lived if their hospital had not been overwhelmed with Covid patients. Or if they had not been stressed from the Covid-19 epidemic. Or if their doctor had not cancelled their procedure due to a scarcity of supplies.

[jay22]

Worldometer has not shown any new cases in China in quite awhile- at least a week. They are in third place now.
I find that hard to believe, given the severity of the epidemic there.
Is news just not getting out?

I wouldn’t trust much of anything the Chinese government says about this topic

+1. You must have your head buried in sand to trust the numbers coming out from China.