[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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ThankYouJack
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

Pikel wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:04 am We are watching an incredible erosion of personal freedom right now. I hope it saves more lives than it costs.
There's also a lot of sacrificing and altruism out there. It will bring out the best in some and worst in others.
craimund
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

JonnyB wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:52 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:31 am
JonnyB wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:20 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission.
No they didn't.

It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21 WHO officially announced that human to human transmission was possible.
WHO tweeted this on Jan. 14.

Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the organization had said.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/who-haunt ... ronavirus/
You said "WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission."

WHO said "Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission."

Saying "no clear evidence" is not the same as saying "there was no human to human transmission."

WHO all along said that human transmission could not be ruled out, but they did not yet have the evidence to show that. That's the way that science works.

On January 21 WHO announced that there was evidence of human to human transmission.
WHO shouldn’t have repeated that information if they had no confidence in it. At least they should have qualified that they could not confirm. It appears that there was clear evidence of human transmission in December 2019.
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
This article is incredibly irresponsible. The issue is that the death rates are influenced by the care received. And since so many need care that it quickly exceeds the capacity, those very low death rates are not possible. Unless perhaps we figure out quickly a drug or drug cocktail which greatly reduces the percent of cases that require ICU.
Ruger23
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Ruger23 »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:57 am
GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
This article is incredibly irresponsible. The issue is that the death rates are influenced by the care received. And since so many need care that it quickly exceeds the capacity, those very low death rates are not possible. Unless perhaps we figure out quickly a drug or drug cocktail which greatly reduces the percent of cases that require ICU.
To go further from someone that deals with stats for a living...

"I've seen the Ioannidis opinion piece on COVID19 starting to circulate on FB.

As much as I respect Ioannidis, there's a number of problems with it.

Here's a good summary of the issues.

http://hildabastian.net/index.php/8-secondary/87

Sure, it would be great to have more data. Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding both the impacts of COVID19 as well as the impacts of various extreme measures being implemented to limit the spread.

However, uncertainty isn't a good reason for inaction or waiting for more data. In a situation like this where there's a range of potential scenarios from best case to worst case, you have to consider the costs of inaction, especially if the worst case scenario comes to pass. Scientists don't have the luxury of waiting for more data in a situation like this. Rather, you plan for a worst case scenario, while gathering as much data as possible as you implement those interventions. If things are looking like they won't be as bad, you can always back off on the intensity of the interventions, or use the data you've collected to more fine-tune things to the interventions that appear the most effective.

When you have multiple epidemiologists and disease modelers who have been intensely studying this saying one thing, and one guy who hasn't studied it as closely saying another, I will side with the former."
KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
It's not at all a case of "pick your expert." First, Ioannidis is not an expert on this virus. He hasn't studied it. He is just making general claims in line with his previous academic work. Second, there is a strong consensus. There will always be knowledgeable experts with a different opinion. That doesn't mean it's rational to go against the consensus. It isn't. And Ioannidis isn't even disagreeing with the consensus. He's basically just saying, "I wish we had more data before making this decision." That's a reasonable position, but it doesn't make the response incorrect. His position strikes me as leaning more towards the irrational "if we can't know anything for sure, we shouldn't do anything" side. We don't know everything, but we know a lot. And the nature of the incoming data is overwhelmingly leading credibility to the idea that the response is the correct one. We don't have all the data, but the best data we have points in this direction.

I'm not sure why you would ask any doctor about this. This isn't their area of expertise. So sure, they may have a different opinion. So does my plumber.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ebrasmus21
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ebrasmus21 »

In December I was sick as hell. I was sick for weeks, missed several days of work and seemed to take forever to fully recover. I know many others in my area that had a rough cold/flu season this winter. I wonder if the virus was already here back in December and we just didn’t know it.
brianH
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by brianH »

KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:44 pm Nobody is asking you to give up your freedom. The irony that many of those wars were fought by drafted soldiers is not lost on me.
I'm not sure how you can view the recent order by the Governor of California to not be sharply limiting freedom. I suspect enforcement will be next to impossible, but that doesn't change the intent of the order.

Perhaps these types of lockdowns will help in the short-term, but they will not be enforceable for anywhere near some of the worst case estimates (2-8 months.) I hope a better plan comes to the surface in the next week or two, or I suspect we as a country (the citizens) will be making some unfortunate decisions.
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Mactheriverrat
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Mactheriverrat »

corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Well no but thanks for reminding me . Its bad.
Everything evolves. | May Every Sunrise Bring You Hope. May Every Sunset Bring you Peace.
fru-gal
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by fru-gal »

ebrasmus21 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:46 pm In December I was sick as hell. I was sick for weeks, missed several days of work and seemed to take forever to fully recover. I know many others in my area that had a rough cold/flu season this winter. I wonder if the virus was already here back in December and we just didn’t know it.
Is it possible to tell if someone had and has recovered from the coronavirus? That would be very useful to know, besides pertinent possibly in the plan being floated to use blood transfusions from those people to give others immunity.
fru-gal
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by fru-gal »

I would not want a job where I interacted with a lot of people nowadays, but there is hiring going on, the job market is not all a disaster:

nytimes:

"Retailers and food distributors are also trying to expand the pool of available cashiers, produce pickers and warehouse workers in an effort to spell exhausted employees and create backup in case of widespread illnesses.

Unions representing food store workers, such as the U.F.C.W., are actively recruiting workers laid off this week from department stores and clothing retailers that have shut down for the foreseeable future.

Walmart, the nation’s largest food retailer, said late Thursday that it was looking to hire 150,000 new employees in its stores and distribution centers through the end of May, which would represent a nearly 10 percent increase in its work force. The company is also providing hourly workers with cash bonuses of up to $300.

The parent company of Dollar Tree and Family Dollar discount stores is looking to add 25,000 new workers.

United Natural Food Inc, one of the nation’s largest food distributor to grocery stores, said on Thursday that it was providing most of its 21,000 workers a $2 an hour “state of emergency bonus” on top of their wages and overtime through the end of the month. U.N.F.I. warehouse workers earn roughly $14 to $28 an hour, depending on the state they work in."
theplayer11
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by theplayer11 »

If NYC and LA want to stop the spread, don't they have to stop travel in and out? Just telling people to stay home is not enough as infected people can leave and spread virus to other states.
rkhusky
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky »

brianH wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:04 pm
fru-gal wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:37 am If the US had eroded personal freedom for awhile, we'd be in much better shape. (Assuming things would go back to normal after that.) It could start by throwing into jail those jerks on spring break in Florida, and the Florida governor as well.
Many people view freedom to be worth the cost of some lives - we've fought wars over it.

The current lockdowns will not be enforceable for very long, so I hope there are some better plans out there.
+1

Americans will be tolerant for a few weeks, but after that all bets are off.

Mass panic and a compliant government 75+ years ago got us Japanese internment camps in the US.

At a sporting goods store today and there was a steady stream of customers heading to the back to stock up on ammo. And there was no sale going on.

Third point will counter the second.
KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

brianH wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:22 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:44 pm Nobody is asking you to give up your freedom. The irony that many of those wars were fought by drafted soldiers is not lost on me.
I'm not sure how you can view the recent order by the Governor of California to not be sharply limiting freedom. I suspect enforcement will be next to impossible, but that doesn't change the intent of the order.

Perhaps these types of lockdowns will help in the short-term, but they will not be enforceable for anywhere near some of the worst case estimates (2-8 months.) I hope a better plan comes to the surface in the next week or two, or I suspect we as a country (the citizens) will be making some unfortunate decisions.
How does it limit your freedom? Can you enumerate the freedoms it restricts, per the US Constitution? This is what it comes down to: you are free to do whatever you want so long as it doesn't hurt others. You going outside right now hurts others. Hopefully we will find less-restrictive mitigations soon, but knowingly and intentionally putting others in danger has never been legally justified. The fact that you don't think people will go along with the restrictions for more than a few weeks does not bolster your claim.

I have faith the large majority of Americans will do the right thing.
rkhusky
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky »

Freedom of assembly.

Going outside doesn’t hurt anyone. If you cough in someone’s face, that’s a different matter.

Prior constraint has usually been ruled unconstitutional.
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LilyFleur
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by LilyFleur »

fru-gal wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:37 pm I would not want a job where I interacted with a lot of people nowadays, but there is hiring going on, the job market is not all a disaster:

nytimes:

"Retailers and food distributors are also trying to expand the pool of available cashiers, produce pickers and warehouse workers in an effort to spell exhausted employees and create backup in case of widespread illnesses.

Unions representing food store workers, such as the U.F.C.W., are actively recruiting workers laid off this week from department stores and clothing retailers that have shut down for the foreseeable future.

Walmart, the nation’s largest food retailer, said late Thursday that it was looking to hire 150,000 new employees in its stores and distribution centers through the end of May, which would represent a nearly 10 percent increase in its work force. The company is also providing hourly workers with cash bonuses of up to $300.

The parent company of Dollar Tree and Family Dollar discount stores is looking to add 25,000 new workers.

United Natural Food Inc, one of the nation’s largest food distributor to grocery stores, said on Thursday that it was providing most of its 21,000 workers a $2 an hour “state of emergency bonus” on top of their wages and overtime through the end of the month. U.N.F.I. warehouse workers earn roughly $14 to $28 an hour, depending on the state they work in."
Delivery and/or curbside pickup would protect consumers and workers.
brianH
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by brianH »

KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:48 pm
How does it limit your freedom? Can you enumerate the freedoms it restricts, per the US Constitution?
Here is a Harvard Law prof's recent take on it: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... legal-mess

Even if it must travel through the courts to be struck down as unconstitutional, I think the civil disobedience and general lack of enforceability would render it moot long before that.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:57 pm Freedom of assembly.

Going outside doesn’t hurt anyone. If you cough in someone’s face, that’s a different matter.

Prior constraint has usually been ruled unconstitutional.
Going outside doesn't hurt anyone if you are completely alone and don't touch anything. Unfortunately, in cities those two conditions rarely, if ever, apply. There many be a number of situations where it really doesn't hurt anybody, but as a blanket statement it is false. I suspect there will be many clarifications and exceptions carved out over the coming weeks as more becomes known. Nobody is advocating for blanket shelter-in-place orders of this nature to last for long.

The first amendment clarifies that there is no freedom of assembly, there is only freedom to assemble PEACEABLY. Assembling peaceably is not possible at the moment, regardless of whether or not you cough on somebody's face.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

brianH wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:04 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:48 pm
How does it limit your freedom? Can you enumerate the freedoms it restricts, per the US Constitution?
Here is a Harvard Law prof's recent take on it: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... legal-mess

Even if it must travel through the courts to be struck down as unconstitutional, I think the civil disobedience and general lack of enforceability would render it moot long before that.
I don't see where it is argued that it's unconstitutional in concept, just that the current order was hastily prepared and has a lot of holes. That's fair. Doesn't mean they can't take their time and craft a new order that fully complies.

Besides, the projections take into account that there will be many selfish people who won't comply. So long as it isn't 80% of the population, they will still be effective.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
rkhusky
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky »

KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:04 pm
rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:57 pm Freedom of assembly.

Going outside doesn’t hurt anyone. If you cough in someone’s face, that’s a different matter.

Prior constraint has usually been ruled unconstitutional.
Going outside doesn't hurt anyone if you are completely alone and don't touch anything. Unfortunately, in cities those two conditions rarely, if ever, apply.

The first amendment clarifies that there is no freedom of assembly, there is only freedom to assemble PEACEABLY. Assembling peaceably is not possible at the moment, regardless of whether or not you cough on somebody's face.
Because people will attack you if you go outside?
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:09 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:04 pm
rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:57 pm Freedom of assembly.

Going outside doesn’t hurt anyone. If you cough in someone’s face, that’s a different matter.

Prior constraint has usually been ruled unconstitutional.
Going outside doesn't hurt anyone if you are completely alone and don't touch anything. Unfortunately, in cities those two conditions rarely, if ever, apply.

The first amendment clarifies that there is no freedom of assembly, there is only freedom to assemble PEACEABLY. Assembling peaceably is not possible at the moment, regardless of whether or not you cough on somebody's face.
Because people will attack you if you go outside?
Because standing in close proximity in large groups does not satisfy the "peaceably" qualifier under these conditions.
SCV_Lawyer
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by SCV_Lawyer »

KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:11 pm
rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:09 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:04 pm
rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:57 pm Freedom of assembly.

Going outside doesn’t hurt anyone. If you cough in someone’s face, that’s a different matter.

Prior constraint has usually been ruled unconstitutional.
Going outside doesn't hurt anyone if you are completely alone and don't touch anything. Unfortunately, in cities those two conditions rarely, if ever, apply.

The first amendment clarifies that there is no freedom of assembly, there is only freedom to assemble PEACEABLY. Assembling peaceably is not possible at the moment, regardless of whether or not you cough on somebody's face.
Because people will attack you if you go outside?
Because standing in close proximity in large groups does not satisfy the "peaceably" qualifier under these conditions.
Please cite the case you are relying upon for the statement that the First Amendment does not cover assembly at the moment for lack of it being peaceable.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by LadyGeek »

The discussion is getting derailed and somewhat contentious. Legal issues without a financial component are also off-topic (First Amendment rights).

Let's move on.
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Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
I posted this article from Stanford just a few days ago in this thread.

Disaster movies do a lot of business for a reason.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
ebrasmus21
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ebrasmus21 »

fru-gal wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:35 pm
ebrasmus21 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:46 pm In December I was sick as hell. I was sick for weeks, missed several days of work and seemed to take forever to fully recover. I know many others in my area that had a rough cold/flu season this winter. I wonder if the virus was already here back in December and we just didn’t know it.
Is it possible to tell if someone had and has recovered from the coronavirus? That would be very useful to know, besides pertinent possibly in the plan being floated to use blood transfusions from those people to give others immunity.
It would be interesting information to have. All I know is I was as sick as I have been in quite some time
JonnyB
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by JonnyB »

Remember the Diamond Princess from almost a month ago? An eighth person just died today. There are still 14 in the hospital.

Just a reminder that this disease is very serious and can cause long lasting effects resulting in death.
GCD
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GCD »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:38 pm I posted this article from Stanford just a few days ago in this thread.

Disaster movies do a lot of business for a reason.
Sorry. Big thread and I didn't notice.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

brianH wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:04 pm Many people view freedom to be worth the cost of some lives - we've fought wars over it.

The current lockdowns will not be enforceable for very long, so I hope there are some better plans out there.
I agree. Indefinite lockdowns are viewed as an inconvenience only by people who are fortunately unaffected.

For some it is dire. There are parents and children who cannot see each other due to travel restrictions or lockdowns. Some are terminally ill. The downside of a lockdown will soon outweigh the upside.

There is a finite time limit to every restriction on personal freedom. It doesn't come from a selfish place or random ideology. It comes from our entire reason to be alive. I am not talking about some inconsiderate youngster not practicing social distancing. Not at all. I am talking about real life needs that will eventually be too important to ignore.

I can't visit my elderly parents. My mum is not in the best of health. All I can tell them is to not perish now...it isn't a good time for me to catch an overnight flight to see them. It is small world. Families now lives across countries. It is a reality we will have to figure out.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
DebiT
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Sad for the economy that was

Post by DebiT »

[This topic has been merged into the existing Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus (feelings about the effect on the world)]. Please review the sticky topic pasted at the top of the Board Index and in every Forum before creating a new topic about the coronavirus situation.]

Does anyone else feel this way? “It was all going so well”, low unemployment, happy stock market. Will we see it again any time soon. I think of all of the small businesses, that employ such a large percentage of workers, which aren’t going to survive. They will be gone, and it’s not easy to restart a business in tough times with no reserve. So a percentage of those are gone forever. Just feeling very sad for the world, I think. I don’t think we recover from this very quickly.

If you think I’m missing something, a reason to feel more optimistic, would love to hear it.

I am grateful that I was slated to retire, so my psychotherapy clients were mostly ready to stop. I’ve lost a lot of money, but my cash is probably ok. And if I have to work after I move, I’ll figure it out. But many people are taking a terrible hit. I worry for them
Age 62, life turned upside down 3/2/19, thanking God for what I've learned from this group
ThankYouJack
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:04 am
ThankYouJack wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:47 am Do you agree with that?
I have no idea and where I do have an opinion it is relatively unfounded.

This guy is a classic example of what I posted way back. He has great credentials. His intellectual opposition has great credentials. To go from layman to a level of understanding sufficient to pick who is right is wayyyy more years of study than I am prepared to put in.

So I pick the guy who helps me out with my confirmation bias. :happy
Why pick just one guy? Wouldn't you be better informed if you listened to multiple experts with similar credentials?
phantom cosmonaut
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by phantom cosmonaut »

I've gone back and forth on whether the current measures make sense, given the economic cost. I finally came around to the position that hitting pause for 4-8 weeks is probably a good idea, if only because it gives researchers a chance to figure out what, exactly, we're dealing with.

It is staggering, though, just how much this is all going to cost. Goldman Sachs apparently thinks that US GDP will drop by -25% (!) as a result of these measures. That works out to about $5 trillion dollars. Now suppose that by taking these actions, we are saving one million lives. That means that we are saving lives, but at the cost of $5 million per life.

Is that a reasonable tradeoff? It would be if lives we were saving, say, the lives of children, since the children saved would have another 60 years of happy life ahead of them. But in Italy, the average age of people killed by the coronavirus is nearly 80, and those killed are disproportionately those who have poor health to begin with. This means that we are purchasing very little additional life expectancy with our $5 trillion.

These sorts of calculations can seem cold. Of course it's worth saving lives, if the only cost is money. The problem is that we could have used all that money to save other lives in more efficient ways.

To get a sense of scale, we can build a new hospital for about $1.5 million per bed. That means that with $5 trillion, we could build hospitals that a combined additional 2 million beds. Those hospitals would presumably be able to be used for quite some time. Say, 50 years. Just off the top of my head, I would think that 2 million additional beds over fifty years would save far more than half a million lives.

These calculations all change as you shift the assumptions around. Maybe we are saving more than a million lives by shutting down the economy? Maybe the shutdown will be short term, so will cost less than $5 trillion? Or maybe the shut down will save fewer lives because our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed anyway, and 50% of the population is going to get this before we have a vaccine.

The frustrating thing, from my perspective, is that no one has articulated a clear plan. Are we doing this for a year? If not, why would we stop? Because containment is probably impossible at this point. And no one has clearly explained what tradeoffs we are making.

Again, this all coming from someone who thinks the present shutdown is probably justified.

[Edit: Fixed bad math.]
Last edited by phantom cosmonaut on Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
frugalmama
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by frugalmama »

As a young person but someone who went through the Great Recession (and so I saw some of this before), it is a reminder that life is always about change and adapting...the only thing that doesn't change is change itself. The Great Recession brought a lot of pain to my household and I learned a lot of lessons. That said, both my husband and I would go through it again...we are better people and actually happier from it. We had a change in careers, figured out what was important to us, etc. etc. While some businesses will never return, many new ones will spring up that would never be without this event. People will reevaluate their lives, start businesses to get by, and some will be thrilled that they get to spend more time with their family, despite the economic impact.

I have a friend whose husband was unemployed for 2 years around 2000. They really struggled. Shortly after, they lost their young child due to a tragic accident. Asked about it later and about all the terrible things that had happened to them in the 5 years they had, he said he was actually really thankful for that time of unemployment because while it was very hard, he got to spend precious time with his child that he can never spend again. Today, his financial life is beyond fine and he's back on track...money is money, time is the most precious thing you have and YOU get to choose how you spend it. I have lost a lot of income this month and in future months as I've experienced cuts. However, I am reminded of all the times that I think I work to much and want more time with my kids...THIS is the time that I wished for so I'm going to use it. You choose to see how you view an event...I am trying to see the event for its positives as they are there.
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pennsylvania211
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by pennsylvania211 »

frugalmama wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:21 pm As a young person but someone who went through the Great Recession (and so I saw some of this before), it is a reminder that life is always about change and adapting...the only thing that doesn't change is change itself. The Great Recession brought a lot of pain to my household and I learned a lot of lessons. That said, both my husband and I would go through it again...we are better people and actually happier from it. We had a change in careers, figured out what was important to us, etc. etc. While some businesses will never return, many new ones will spring up that would never be without this event. People will reevaluate their lives, start businesses to get by, and some will be thrilled that they get to spend more time with their family, despite the economic impact.

I have a friend whose husband was unemployed for 2 years around 2000. They really struggled. Shortly after, they lost their young child due to a tragic accident. Asked about it later and about all the terrible things that had happened to them in the 5 years they had, he said he was actually really thankful for that time of unemployment because while it was very hard, he got to spend precious time with his child that he can never spend again. Today, his financial life is beyond fine and he's back on track...money is money, time is the most precious thing you have and YOU get to choose how you spend it. I have lost a lot of income this month and in future months as I've experienced cuts. However, I am reminded of all the times that I think I work to much and want more time with my kids...THIS is the time that I wished for so I'm going to use it. You choose to see how you view an event...I am trying to see the event for its positives as they are there.

+1
"In the long run, investing is not about markets at all. Investing is about enjoying the returns earned by businesses." - Jack Bogle
KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:55 pm
brianH wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:04 pm Many people view freedom to be worth the cost of some lives - we've fought wars over it.

The current lockdowns will not be enforceable for very long, so I hope there are some better plans out there.
I agree. Indefinite lockdowns are viewed as an inconvenience only by people who are fortunately unaffected.

For some it is dire. There are parents and children who cannot see each other due to travel restrictions or lockdowns. Some are terminally ill. The downside of a lockdown will soon outweigh the upside.

There is a finite time limit to every restriction on personal freedom. It doesn't come from a selfish place or random ideology. It comes from our entire reason to be alive. I am not talking about some inconsiderate youngster not practicing social distancing. Not at all. I am talking about real life needs that will eventually be too important to ignore.

I can't visit my elderly parents. My mum is not in the best of health. All I can tell them is to not perish now...it isn't a good time for me to catch an overnight flight to see them. It is small world. Families now lives across countries. It is a reality we will have to figure out.
None of that invalidates the strategy. There will be exceptions and the projections account for that. Nobody pretends there will be 100% compliance or anywhere close to it. We don't need 100% compliance or anything close to it. In fact, 100% compliance would be a bad thing. The models actually DEPEND on 25-30% of the population disobeying continuously. I see no evidence that the lockdowns won't be effective over long periods of time. Not that we shouldn't search for a better plan as more data becomes available, but the situation isn't at all dire. There won't be a revolution and there is no evidence there be a long-term enforcement problem.
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

frugalmama wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:21 pm As a young person but someone who went through the Great Recession (and so I saw some of this before), it is a reminder that life is always about change and adapting...the only thing that doesn't change is change itself. The Great Recession brought a lot of pain to my household and I learned a lot of lessons. That said, both my husband and I would go through it again...we are better people and actually happier from it. We had a change in careers, figured out what was important to us, etc. etc. While some businesses will never return, many new ones will spring up that would never be without this event. People will reevaluate their lives, start businesses to get by, and some will be thrilled that they get to spend more time with their family, despite the economic impact.

I have a friend whose husband was unemployed for 2 years around 2000. They really struggled. Shortly after, they lost their young child due to a tragic accident. Asked about it later and about all the terrible things that had happened to them in the 5 years they had, he said he was actually really thankful for that time of unemployment because while it was very hard, he got to spend precious time with his child that he can never spend again. Today, his financial life is beyond fine and he's back on track...money is money, time is the most precious thing you have and YOU get to choose how you spend it. I have lost a lot of income this month and in future months as I've experienced cuts. However, I am reminded of all the times that I think I work to much and want more time with my kids...THIS is the time that I wished for so I'm going to use it. You choose to see how you view an event...I am trying to see the event for its positives as they are there.
+1
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
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cheese_breath
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by cheese_breath »

phantom cosmonaut wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:18 pm Is that a reasonable tradeoff? It would be if lives we were saving, say, the lives of children, since the children saved would have another 60 years of happy life ahead of them. But in Italy, the average age of people killed by the coronavirus is nearly 80, and those killed are disproportionately those who have poor health to begin with. This means that we are purchasing very little additional life expectancy with our $5 trillion.
I'm nearly 80. What dollar value would you place on my life so I'll know when I'm not worth it anymore. Or have I already passed that point?
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

phantom cosmonaut wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:18 pm
Is that a reasonable tradeoff? It would be if lives we were saving, say, the lives of children, since the children saved would have another 60 years of happy life ahead of them. But in Italy, the average age of people killed by the coronavirus is nearly 80, and those killed are disproportionately those who have poor health to begin with. This means that we are purchasing very little additional life expectancy with our $5 trillion.
Where do you see this? I see them projecting a 24% decline in the second quarter, but only a 3.8% decline for the year. That's bad, but certainly not historically bad. There have been plenty of years with much worse GDP drops, albeit not really since the 40s. Still, that wouldn't even come close to touching the Great Depression. Of course, that depends on robust growth assumptions in Q3 and Q4, but at the moment that doesn't seem unlikely.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman ... rcent.html
DebiT
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by DebiT »

You’re absolutely right , and it’s exactly what I would say on a good day. Ironic that I’m so happy to move close to my grandchildren, but won’t be able to see them for a while, perhaps. But of course perspective is everything. I am grateful that this virus isn’t attacking children and young people for the most part, and any amount of isolation to get get it contained is worth it. Nothing stacks up against losing a child.
Age 62, life turned upside down 3/2/19, thanking God for what I've learned from this group
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JoMoney
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by JoMoney »

I'm not much for worrying.
Stuff happens. We move forward.
I just took a drive through the countryside, saw some cows drinking out of a trough, they didn't look too worried about where they would get water once it was empty, they'll find some somewhere else, adapt to whatever change comes. Things change, people adapt .. it's just what we do.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
frugalmama
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by frugalmama »

DebiT wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:33 pm You’re absolutely right , and it’s exactly what I would say on a good day. Ironic that I’m so happy to move close to my grandchildren, but won’t be able to see them for a while, perhaps. But of course perspective is everything. I am grateful that this virus isn’t attacking children and young people for the most part, and any amount of isolation to get get it contained is worth it. Nothing stacks up against losing a child.
Perhaps you can Skype, Facebook, or Facetime or send pics back and forth? As a child, I treasured my time with my grandparents (and still do with the one I have left!)...and yet I didn't have all the technology available today to get to spend regular time with them (as I didn't live near them). I wish I had...my grandparents were magical! We have so many more opportunities today to connect. Imagine if this happened in 1980 when you still had to pay for long distance and didn't have cell phones or internet. While we are in an unfortunate situation, we will get through this, and we are lucky that it is happening when it is.

I have rough days with this too...we all do...and you will probably be saying this to someone else tomorrow. We just have to have others help us with perspective at times. Sending you all the best!
Ruger23
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Ruger23 »

Can we just make Dr. Fauci POTUS for a bit?
flyingaway
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by flyingaway »

I'm not worried about the economy at this time, I'm more worried about if I will come out to be alive. The economy can kill my money, but the virus can kill me.
KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA »

fru-gal wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:42 pm
phantom cosmonaut wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:18 pm The frustrating thing, from my perspective, is that no one has articulated a clear plan. Are we doing this for a year? If not, why would we stop? Because containment is probably impossible at this point. And no one has clearly explained what tradeoffs we are making.
Yes, I have realized recently that part of the stress is the country seems to have no plan, or at least hasn't said what the plan is.

A day or two past Trump took special powers to apparently get the equipment manufacturers off the stick, as they are in some other countries, and today he isn't going to use those powers. There is no plan to get equipment to the states, they're on their own even though the manufacturers are price gouging and playing them off against each other.

If we had some strong, rational leadership, that would be nice. [Update: We need somebody with a whiteboard.]
I think the plan is to contain until we can figure out a plan.
drummerboy
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by drummerboy »

frugalmama wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:21 pm money is money, time is the most precious thing you have and YOU get to choose how you spend it. I have lost a lot of income this month and in future months as I've experienced cuts. However, I am reminded of all the times that I think I work to much and want more time with my kids...THIS is the time that I wished for so I'm going to use it. You choose to see how you view an event...I am trying to see the event for its positives as they are there.
This is the best thing I've read in weeks. Thank you!
anoop
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by anoop »

Actually, I don't think much about the economy was fine. It was barely getting by.

Let's take restaurants.

The few restaurant owners I know were all barely making it financially despite having a lot of traffic. There's a large corporation that's supplying these restaurants that made a killing. There's a large bank that loaned them money that also made a killing.

A resilient system necessarily has a fair amount of redundancy built in. But these restaurants were always understaffed. The few waiters seemed to be running up and down frantically for the duration of their shift, yet customers were barely getting acceptable service.

Similarly in every area of the economy, those that had jobs were overworked and being squeezed with respect to benefits and wages.

The coronavirus outbreak is just exposing how vulnerable and levered up the whole system is. And even when the stock market returns back to where it was, things will be even worse on main street. The large corporations that made a killing in the restaurant example didn't pass on any of that largesse to their employees. Au contraire, they just used it to buy back stock.
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

It was a fake economy.
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Cubicle
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Re: Sad for the economy that was

Post by Cubicle »

Things were great. Things are bad now. Things will be great again. After every economic collapse the economy has reached new heights. Before every collapse people went around saying "it has never been this good!".

Back in 2007: "wow, I own 9 rental properties, refinanced my house for the 4th time, pulled $90k out this time, & I'm starting the beach house build Spring 2008...".

Back in December 2019: "man that 2008 was rough, but things have never been better, record low unemployment, stock market is on ablaze with gains, jobs are available, work is available, people are healthy, outlook is bright..."

On xxx-ember, 202x: "man that virus was tough, but we have flying cars, self healing medicines, microchip mobile devices that can diagnose me within seconds, abundant food & water, teleportation, unlimited & delicious zero calorie pizza & ice cream... this is the best time in history ever!!!"
"Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓
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El Greco
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by El Greco »

SOME GOOD NEWS ABOUT COVID19?

A friend sent me this link from blogger Peter Diamandis. Might be a slight relief from all the doom and gloom. I haven't read through all the links yet, but many seem to be from legit news sources:

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/good-news-covid-19
jay22
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by jay22 »

Things would have been so much better had we scaled up the testing drastically like S Korea when the first case appeared in the country.

My family has been self quarantining ourselves for 8 days now - my wife and I have left the house just once to get groceries. I can't help but shake my head when I see people at bars/beaches enjoying as if everything is normal. Good thing Newsom issued a state-wide shut down directive. Hopefully, that'll help.
7eight9
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by 7eight9 »

SEATTLE — Medical leaders in Washington State, which has the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the country, have quietly begun preparing a bleak triage strategy to determine which patients may have to be denied complete medical care in the event that the health system becomes overwhelmed by the coronavirus in the coming weeks.

Fearing a critical shortage of supplies, including the ventilators needed to help the most seriously ill patients breathe, state officials and hospital leaders held a conference call on Wednesday night to discuss the plans, according to several people involved in the talks. The triage document, still under consideration, will assess factors such as age, health and likelihood of survival in determining who will get access to full care and who will merely be provided comfort care, with the expectation that they will die.

The effort is statewide so individual doctors and hospitals will not be left to make such decisions, said Cassie Sauer, chief executive of the Washington State Hospital Association, one of the groups convening the call.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/c ... e=Homepage

It looks like Washington State is preparing for a situation similar to Italy where the hospital system is overwhelmed. Hopefully social distancing will flatten the curve enough that they don't have to resort to the triage plan.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
stefan_lec
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by stefan_lec »

El Greco wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:02 pm SOME GOOD NEWS ABOUT COVID19?

A friend sent me this link from blogger Peter Diamandis. Might be a slight relief from all the doom and gloom. I haven't read through all the links yet, but many seem to be from legit news sources:

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/good-news-covid-19
Thanks for this, nice to hear some good news! Thought his article today about strengthening the immune system was pretty interesting, too:

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/augmenti ... y-covid-19
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