[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Unladen_Swallow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:44 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:42 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm
This entire virus outbreak has shown me the worst of human nature.

I have read news from the US, Italy, South Korea, China, UK.....pretty much everywhere the virus has shown up substantially. Every story is of people ready with pitchforks saying their health officials, government, and medical facilities have botched the response.

In fact, I saw a UK reporter interviewing the Italian ambassador and goading him into "so you're saying Italy screwed up". The guy looked just sad his country is suffering.

Everyone becomes an expert during a crisis. Every person with a keyboard, a phone, and a pen. Certainly many things go wrong in a crisis. Some is incompetence even. And if proclaimations are to be believed, some officials are trying to purposely harm their citizens.

A novel crisis is just that, new. Human response involves human failings. Experts are not experts on something new. But folks that contribute nothing themselves, have plenty of time on their hands to claim everything under the sun. Perhaps they should have been in charge.

The frustration in almost every country says one thing - everyone is struggling. We are not special in screwing up or succeeding.
False. Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong instituted social distancing early and managed to contain the virus while it was still manageable.

So not everyone is struggling. China, outside of Wuhan, also managed to contain the virus through social distancing.

Yes, Italy screwed up. So are we. There are multiple examples of countries that did it right including China.
You make my point for me.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman

Coato
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Coato » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:45 pm

Coato wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:40 pm
“I would like to see the math behind those numbers. That's a huge extrapolation from the current numbers of a few thousand confirmed infected.”

I‘m sorry but I am raging because of this widespread sentiment. We have a few thousand tested because it is impossible to get tested unless you go into an emergency room (not for testing, but because of acute symptoms).

I am a teacher, 20 of my kids went on a field trip to Japan in Mid-Feb and MANY came back with sore throats and fevers. I have interacted with those kids for 3 weeks and now I have a fever, dry cough, sore throat and today am experiencing some breathing issues. (light wheezing, smoggy day light so I doubt it's actually a thing.)

I went to the QuestDiagnostics site and it says they need a doctor’s note to test.

I called my doctor and explained everything and his office left this message:

"Our [Healthe Care Network] standpoint on the Corona testing is that you are to stay at home, do social distancing or call the health department. We are currently not testing nor are we ordering for the Corona Virus so I would direct all questions to the health department. "

People need to stop saying we have relatively few cases until they actually see how hard it is to get tested. There is no responsible reason why someone who works with 180 kids on a rotating class basis in a small room cannot get tested for this unless they clearly don’t want to know.

veggivet
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by veggivet » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:49 pm

Coato wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:40 pm
“I would like to see the math behind those numbers. That's a huge extrapolation from the current numbers of a few thousand confirmed infected.”

I ‘m sorry but I am raging because of this widespread sentiment. We have a few thousand tested because it is impossible to get tested unless you go into an emergency room.

I am a teacher, 20 of my kids went on a field trip to Japan in Mid-Feb and MANY came back with sore throats and fevers. I have interacted with those kids for 3 weeks and now I have a fever, dry cough, sore throat and today am experiencing some breathign issues. (light wheezing.)

I went to the QuestDiagnostics site and it says they need a doctor’s note to test.

I called my doctor and explained everythign and his office left this message:

"Our [Healthe Care Network] standpoint on the Corona testing is that you are to stay at home, do social distancing or call the health department. We are currently not testing nor are we ordering for the Corona Virus so I would direct all questions to the health department. "

People need to stop saying we have relatively few cases until they actually see how hard it is to get tested. There is no responsible reason why someone who works with 180 kids on a rotating basis in a small room cannot get tested for this unless they clearly don’t want to know.
If keeping the numbers looking good is the number one priority, things will get much worse before they get any better.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

veggivet
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by veggivet » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:53 pm

Wall St. pricing cruise lines as if they'll be all going underwater...thank you, I'll be here all week. Please tip your waitstaff well. :D
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

Irisheyes
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Irisheyes » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 pm

Well this is crappy news. Many infections apparently spread by people who are asymptomatic.

Many coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.

An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that
two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.


https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... scientists

hoops777
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by hoops777 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:03 pm

Fear of the unknown. Fear of the virus and fear of shutting down much of our economy for an uncertain length of time. It really strikes home mentally/emotionally when everyday normal things are taken away. Watching a game on tv, going to work or school, etc.
I was rolling with it until today. Now I am even a tiny bit reluctant to babysit my 5 year old grandson who is precious to me.Where has he been and who has he been in contact with? How about his parents who are going to work ?
For me to be thinking this way, it is definitely not a good sign. :(
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

GaryA505
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GaryA505 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:04 pm

So, I'm just curious. If you get it, how long does it last (assuming you recover)?

fru-gal
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by fru-gal » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:05 pm

GaryA505 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:04 pm
So, I'm just curious. If you get it, how long does it last (assuming you recover)?
I'd like to know this also.

hilink73
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by hilink73 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:06 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:37 pm
iceman wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:16 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:32 pm
If this turns into a nothing-burger, I hope that the people who lost their jobs and suffered other financial issues take retribution on those who fanned the fires of this hysteria.
What if these actions are what makes it "nothing-burger"?
Hopefully we will get some data on what actions helped, so we can actually make decisions based on facts and science, rather than mob hysteria.
We already know what helps.
Some Asian countries already proofed what works.

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Tony-S
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tony-S » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:07 pm

jibantik wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:10 pm
JonnyB wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pm
The president said in his speech last night "leaders of health insurance industry have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments."

The insurance companies were quick to correct that misstatement. They are only waiving co-payments for coronavirus lab tests, not treatment. This means that you are on the hook, for example, for the $1500 facility fee for walking into an emergency room for testing.

Check with your insurance company before incurring possibly very expensive medical charges.

And these announced waivers do not apply to the roughly half of employees whose employers are self-insured. Check with your employer. And they do not apply to the 30 million uninsured.
Was not the only thing that had to be corrected either (from a teleprompter speech lol). I am glad everything is sorted so well at the leadership levels in our country :oops:
Last night was a total disaster. I fear for our country.

hilink73
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by hilink73 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:10 pm

Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 pm
Well this is crappy news. Many infections apparently spread by people who are asymptomatic.

Many coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.

An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that
two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.


https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... scientists

Well, this has been suspected since weeks.
Yet, some people on here call it hysteria.

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Tony-S
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tony-S » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:11 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:39 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:37 pm
Unlike the flu, there is no herd immunity built up and no vaccine available. i would trust the experts on this one.
There's no herd immunity for the flu. It mutates every year. And the vaccines for the US are just guesses, based on what was happening in Asia months prior. Not sure how they decide what strains to put in Asian vaccines.
As more people survive infection the R naught begins to decline. In others words, herd immunity ensues.
Last edited by Tony-S on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Sandtrap
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:11 pm

How much of this is media hype?

J🏝
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ray.james
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ray.james » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:13 pm

fru-gal wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:05 pm
GaryA505 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:04 pm
So, I'm just curious. If you get it, how long does it last (assuming you recover)?
I'd like to know this also.
Median cases were 2-3 weeks with additional 10 days for waited testing as per Chinese data from late Feb. (they are cured, but Chinese did a second test and quarantined at home till then)
Also the number of people with pneumonia (not severe but needs rest) needed 3-6 weeks for full recovery.

These is from early JAMA data in Feb. There might be updated data there now.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

veggivet
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by veggivet » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 pm

Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 pm
Well this is crappy news. Many infections apparently spread by people who are asymptomatic.

Many coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.

An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that
two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.


https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... scientists
We've known this for at least the last 2-3 weeks. Perhaps some news outlets weren't reporting it, but it is the reason that checking body temperature is more for theater than detecting infected individuals.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Tony-S
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tony-S » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:39 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:37 pm
Unlike the flu, there is no herd immunity built up and no vaccine available. i would trust the experts on this one.
There's no herd immunity for the flu. It mutates every year. And the vaccines for the US are just guesses, based on what was happening in Asia months prior. Not sure how they decide what strains to put in Asian vaccines.
This is not correct. The flu vaccine does indeed confer herd immunity if enough people are vaccinated. In most years the vaccine is good match for the circulating strains but every now and then a novel one emerges.

veggivet
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by veggivet » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:16 pm

Mr. Market not impressed by a 1 billion infusion from the Fed. That's in the three comma club.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

Irisheyes
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Irisheyes » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:18 pm

veggivet wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 pm
Well this is crappy news. Many infections apparently spread by people who are asymptomatic.

Many coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.

An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that
two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.


https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... scientists
We've known this for at least the last 2-3 weeks. Perhaps some news outlets weren't reporting it, but it is the reason that checking body temperature is more for theater than detecting infected individuals.
Yes, I knew it was believed (and a couple of studies pointed to the fact) that this might be the case.

This study shows that *the majority* of people in their two study groups (China and Singapore) caught it from people who are asymptomatic.

veggivet
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by veggivet » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:18 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:11 pm
How much of this is media hype?

J🏝
Depending on which media you consume, either 0 or 100%. Hope that helps... :wink:
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

7eight9
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by 7eight9 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:20 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:46 pm
SimpleGift wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:44 pm
An instructive chart from the Financial Times today, showing how most western countries are on about the same coronavirus trajectory, with the number of confirmed cases increasing at a rate of roughly 33% per day:
  • Image
    Source: Financial Times, as of 3/11/20. Note that the vertical axis is log scale.
The rate of new confirmed cases in the UK, France, Spain and Germany is roughly the same as that in Italy, but Italy is just much further down the road.
Damn, I don't have enough retirement funds to move to Singapore...
There is always Malaysia next door. The MM2H visa isn't too hard to get.

Visa info --- http://www.mm2h.gov.my/index.php/en/
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

Jebediah
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Jebediah » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:26 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:19 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 am
veggivet wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:35 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:29 am
fru-gal wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:31 am

That chart seems inaccurate. It has the US's alarming curve at 2000 when today Mar 12 we are actually at 1200 cases. Plotted at 1200, we are actually in line with several other countries (not the ones who have actually taken useful action, but the rest of us.)
Given the utter lack of testing, is anyone convinced that there really only 1179 cases in he US?
Gotta keep those numbers looking good, remember?
Not at all. There are likely more cases than that just in the Seattle area.
Well, there’s still only 1 confirmed case in San Diego, a city of 3 million on the West coast. That seems...hard to believe.
Likewise India at 73 cases.

perl
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by perl » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:31 pm

fru-gal wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:05 pm
GaryA505 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:04 pm
So, I'm just curious. If you get it, how long does it last (assuming you recover)?
I'd like to know this also.
Median time to be free of the virus is 20 days. If you don't die.

People that die shed the virus up until death.

"Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 3/fulltext
Last edited by perl on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

GaryA505
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GaryA505 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:32 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:11 pm
How much of this is media hype?

J🏝
Never let a good disaster go to waste.

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knpstr
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by knpstr » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:33 pm

Jebediah wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:26 pm
quantAndHold wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:19 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 am
veggivet wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:35 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:29 am


Given the utter lack of testing, is anyone convinced that there really only 1179 cases in he US?
Gotta keep those numbers looking good, remember?
Not at all. There are likely more cases than that just in the Seattle area.
Well, there’s still only 1 confirmed case in San Diego, a city of 3 million on the West coast. That seems...hard to believe.
Likewise India at 73 cases.
State of Michigan holding strong at 2 cases in the state.

State of Ohio just announced an "extended spring break" 3 week closure for all schools starting Monday.
And "March Madness" is officially cancelled, which brought in just shy of $1 Billion last year to the NCAA alone
Last edited by knpstr on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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GaryA505
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GaryA505 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:35 pm

perl wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:31 pm
fru-gal wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:05 pm
GaryA505 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:04 pm
So, I'm just curious. If you get it, how long does it last (assuming you recover)?
I'd like to know this also.
Median time to be free of the virus is 20 days. If you don't die.

People that die shed the virus up until death.

"Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 3/fulltext
So if you think you have it and you last 3 weeks then you're OK?

Beezthree
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Beezthree » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:36 pm

some positive news out of China, from harvard business review. sorry if already posted.
https://hbr.org/2020/03/how-chinese-co ... oronavirus

KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:42 pm

Most Seattle metro area public schools now closed through April 24th.

https://www.seattletimes.com/education- ... -april-24/
Last edited by KyleAAA on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.

sid hartha
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by sid hartha » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:42 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:23 am
sid hartha wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:17 am
Mr. Rumples wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:00 am
I see the gym as relatively clean. Perhaps I am wrong...its not terribly crowded when I go, I clean off the benches before use, there is distance between me and others and I wash my hands both before leaving and change when I walk in the door at home. My guess is that its cleaner than most places.
I'm no Dr. or expert but here's my take. As long as there is no outbreak in your immediate community the gym is probably fine. But I would probably avoid classes where people are packed in tightly in confined spaces (spin, yoga, etc). Just take extra precautions like wiping down equipment and washing hands more etc.
I’m done with the gym as of yesterday. Thousands of different people come in every day touching all the surfaces you touch. Realistically the gym is probably one of the worst places you can go. I would not be surprised if they were mandated to close down soon. Remember, we are without enough testing kits in the US and this is spreading exponentially. There a lot of infected walking around who haven’t started showing symptoms yet.

The weather is warming. I’ll be running outside and working out at home. IMO it’s time to start avoiding large gatherings whether your community is a hot bed or not.
You have convinced me, I've made the decision to avoid the gym for now. I purchased a pull up bar and some weights and will weight train at home for the time being.

Corsair
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Corsair » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:44 pm

Disneyland is closing until the end of the month :shock: 40% of their revenue comes from parks. +1 for the bats.
Stocks only go up? Don't fight the Fed. | All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:45 pm

This is a "no politics" forum. I removed an off-topic post (opinion of Trump's speech). As a reminder, see: Politics and Religion
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
  • Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
  • Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
  • Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed legislation are prohibited.
  • Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
I also removed an off-topic interchange which conjectured on the presidential line of succession.

========================
Tensions are running high. Please state your concerns in a civil, factual, manner.

Also, please cite your sources. Facts and figures should come from "credible" sources.
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bayview
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by bayview » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:51 pm

I hope you can get some answers soon. Have you been able to call the health department? Can you self-quarantine in the interim?

Best wishes; I hope this is something else, or at least one of the milder cases!
Coato wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:40 pm
“I would like to see the math behind those numbers. That's a huge extrapolation from the current numbers of a few thousand confirmed infected.”

I ‘m sorry but I am raging because of this widespread sentiment. We have a few thousand tested because it is impossible to get tested unless you go into an emergency room.

I am a teacher, 20 of my kids went on a field trip to Japan in Mid-Feb and MANY came back with sore throats and fevers. I have interacted with those kids for 3 weeks and now I have a fever, dry cough, sore throat and today am experiencing some breathign issues. (light wheezing.)

I went to the QuestDiagnostics site and it says they need a doctor’s note to test.

I called my doctor and explained everythign and his office left this message:

"Our [Healthe Care Network] standpoint on the Corona testing is that you are to stay at home, do social distancing or call the health department. We are currently not testing nor are we ordering for the Corona Virus so I would direct all questions to the health department. "

People need to stop saying we have relatively few cases until they actually see how hard it is to get tested. There is no responsible reason why someone who works with 180 kids on a rotating basis in a small room cannot get tested for this unless they clearly don’t want to know.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

Mr. Rumples
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Mr. Rumples » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:57 pm

The Governor of Virginia has formally declared a state of emergency; the full meaning will be released but at this time it entails the closing of schools, restrictions on travel of state employees, the development of a screening test and drive through testing. The Governor said there are mixed messages coming from the federal government and its time to act. It will allow greater coordination between agencies and tapping into its $1.6B in reserves. If law enforcement is depleted due to illness, he will be able to tap into the unorganized militia (different than the National Guard) which in the past takes on duties such as traffic control.

This should come as no surprise to Virginians. To respond to a health crisis in 1766, Virginia established a public mental health hospital - still in existence. That proposal brought by (Lt.) Governor Fauquier had the support of the legislature which included many of our Founding Fathers including a young George Washington. Virginia hasn't been tested like this since the polio outbreak in 1950; that is still remembered by some as the summer without children in Wytheville, were children were told to stay home and businesses were closed. That might be on the minds of folks in Richmond, they waited in 1950 too long: out of a population of 5,500, 23 died of polio, most of them children.
Last edited by Mr. Rumples on Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

btenny
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by btenny » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:00 pm

Well my kid and family reunion is done. It is just not going to happen. Six months of planning and a ton of $$ is just gone. Plus I am going to miss seeing my kids and grand kids. I was looking forward to the fun times....

My DDs hubby has probably been exposed. Right now he is still working and is fine. But his Army unit has several guys who were overseas and are now sick and test positive. So TBD if he will get it. Likewise my sons wife was sent home when her school closed today. One of her schools kids is sick. So both my DD and DS are at risk and probably should not travel or be around other people. So they are not coming to Arizona. And TBD how the air lines and hotels will handle all the pre-paid air line tickets and hotel reservations that now need to be rescheduled or cancelled.

Plus Major League Baseball is stopping Spring Training games effective today. But I have already bought and paid for 12 seats and parking for the game on March 21. But the game is now cancelled and TBD how or if they will return my money or give me some kind of alternate. The agent does not know and will not be employed much longer as he was seasonal. He thinks I will get some sort of email in the future telling me what MLB is going to do about the cancellations.

What a MESS......

Coato
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Coato » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:18 pm

bayview wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:51 pm
I hope you can get some answers soon. Have you been able to call the health department? Can you self-quarantine in the interim?

Best wishes; I hope this is something else, or at least one of the milder cases!
Coato wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:40 pm
“I would like to see the math behind those numbers. That's a huge extrapolation from the current numbers of a few thousand confirmed infected.”

I ‘m sorry but I am raging because of this widespread sentiment. We have a few thousand tested because it is impossible to get tested unless you go into an emergency room.

I am a teacher, 20 of my kids went on a field trip to Japan in Mid-Feb and MANY came back with sore throats and fevers. I have interacted with those kids for 3 weeks and now I have a fever, dry cough, sore throat and today am experiencing some breathign issues. (light wheezing.)

I went to the QuestDiagnostics site and it says they need a doctor’s note to test.

I called my doctor and explained everythign and his office left this message:

"Our [Healthe Care Network] standpoint on the Corona testing is that you are to stay at home, do social distancing or call the health department. We are currently not testing nor are we ordering for the Corona Virus so I would direct all questions to the health department. "

People need to stop saying we have relatively few cases until they actually see how hard it is to get tested. There is no responsible reason why someone who works with 180 kids on a rotating basis in a small room cannot get tested for this unless they clearly don’t want to know.
Thank you. I'll be fine I think, I'm in my 40s and a runner, so I think I'm out of the danger group. My breathing issue feels akin to having jogged in smog, its not like I can't breathe. Really angry for some of the 60-year-olds (and one 80 year old what a hero!) I teach with. I stayed home two days, I'm back at work. A colleague told me the automated sub system can't locate any subs for sick people, so nobody can stay home now since you cannot register an absence of the system can't get a sub.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by palanzo » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:19 pm

Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 pm
JonnyB wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pm
The president said in his speech last night "leaders of health insurance industry have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments."

The insurance companies were quick to correct that misstatement. They are only waiving co-payments for coronavirus lab tests, not treatment. This means that you are on the hook, for example, for the $1500 facility fee for walking into an emergency room for testing.

Check with your insurance company before incurring possibly very expensive medical charges.

And these announced waivers do not apply to the roughly half of employees whose employers are self-insured. Check with your employer. And they do not apply to the 30 million uninsured.
You don't "walk" into an emergency room for testing. I don't know why you keep throwing out bizarre strawmen.

Almost every State protocol has discouraged going to a clinic. If you have symptoms, the doctor will either direct you to a State or County lab for a test. If there is no county lab in your area, they will refer you to a private lab like Qwest for taking the test. These are all free.

CDC, States, and hospitals are strongly discouraging anyone to walk into hospitals. Either they will spread the virus, or they will get the virus.
Silly me. I thought hospitals are where people go if they are sick. Perhaps it's just better to drop dead in the street.
Last edited by palanzo on Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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wshang
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by wshang » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:24 pm

Irisheyes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 pm
Well this is crappy news. Many infections apparently spread by people who are asymptomatic.
scientists have found . . . . two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.
Frankly, we have known this for quite some time. Ergo the need for logic to prevail among those clamoring for testing and blaming the government for lack of testing. Testing makes little difference at this point.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ResearchMed » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:28 pm

btenny wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:00 pm
Well my kid and family reunion is done. It is just not going to happen. Six months of planning and a ton of $$ is just gone. Plus I am going to miss seeing my kids and grand kids. I was looking forward to the fun times....

My DDs hubby has probably been exposed. Right now he is still working and is fine. But his Army unit has several guys who were overseas and are now sick and test positive. So TBD if he will get it. Likewise my sons wife was sent home when her school closed today. One of her schools kids is sick. So both my DD and DS are at risk and probably should not travel or be around other people. So they are not coming to Arizona. And TBD how the air lines and hotels will handle all the pre-paid air line tickets and hotel reservations that now need to be rescheduled or cancelled.

Plus Major League Baseball is stopping Spring Training games effective today. But I have already bought and paid for 12 seats and parking for the game on March 21. But the game is now cancelled and TBD how or if they will return my money or give me some kind of alternate. The agent does not know and will not be employed much longer as he was seasonal. He thinks I will get some sort of email in the future telling me what MLB is going to do about the cancellations.

What a MESS......
Check with your airline. The airlines have gotten much more "generous" in terms of refunds or at least credits.
Until a few days ago, it was often only for tickets purchased "now", presumably to get new business.
But it's changed for the better, often for "any tickets", at least as a credit (or change, but credit can be used as change later).

I've heard that some of the airlines *keep* changing the refund/credit terms as things work their ways through the system, so if you can find a credit, then jump on it.

We just saw that Air Canada added "previously purchased" tickets to their credit/change option, \which we can use, as our late April conference got cancelled a few days ago.

Good luck!

RM
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:28 pm

They've just closed a bunch of facilities in Montgomery County PA (Philly suburb). See: All Montgomery County schools, entertainment venues ordered to close by Gov. Tom Wolf
All community centers, gyms and entertainment venues in Montgomery County must close for 14 days.

No mass gatherings should be held, including rallies and concerts, Wolf said. All non-essential retail outlets are encouraged to close, too.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GaryA505 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:29 pm

palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:19 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 pm
JonnyB wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pm
The president said in his speech last night "leaders of health insurance industry have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments."

The insurance companies were quick to correct that misstatement. They are only waiving co-payments for coronavirus lab tests, not treatment. This means that you are on the hook, for example, for the $1500 facility fee for walking into an emergency room for testing.

Check with your insurance company before incurring possibly very expensive medical charges.

And these announced waivers do not apply to the roughly half of employees whose employers are self-insured. Check with your employer. And they do not apply to the 30 million uninsured.
You don't "walk" into an emergency room for testing. I don't know why you keep throwing out bizarre strawmen.

Almost every State protocol has discouraged going to a clinic. If you have symptoms, the doctor will either direct you to a State or County lab for a test. If there is no county lab in your area, they will refer you to a private lab like Qwest for taking the test. These are all free.

CDC, States, and hospitals are strongly discouraging anyone to walk into hospitals. Either they will spread the virus, or they will get the virus.
Silly me. I thought hospitals are where people go if they are sick.
Now they are where you go to get sick. I'm steering clear of hospitals. If I was dying from it they couldn't do much for me anyway.

palanzo
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by palanzo » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:32 pm

GaryA505 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:29 pm
palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:19 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 pm
JonnyB wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pm
The president said in his speech last night "leaders of health insurance industry have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments."

The insurance companies were quick to correct that misstatement. They are only waiving co-payments for coronavirus lab tests, not treatment. This means that you are on the hook, for example, for the $1500 facility fee for walking into an emergency room for testing.

Check with your insurance company before incurring possibly very expensive medical charges.

And these announced waivers do not apply to the roughly half of employees whose employers are self-insured. Check with your employer. And they do not apply to the 30 million uninsured.
You don't "walk" into an emergency room for testing. I don't know why you keep throwing out bizarre strawmen.

Almost every State protocol has discouraged going to a clinic. If you have symptoms, the doctor will either direct you to a State or County lab for a test. If there is no county lab in your area, they will refer you to a private lab like Qwest for taking the test. These are all free.

CDC, States, and hospitals are strongly discouraging anyone to walk into hospitals. Either they will spread the virus, or they will get the virus.
Silly me. I thought hospitals are where people go if they are sick.
Now they are where you go to get sick. I'm steering clear of hospitals. If I was dying from it they couldn't do much for me anyway.
Not true. If you were really sick then ICU and ECMO can help a lot.

GaryA505
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GaryA505 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:37 pm

palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:32 pm
GaryA505 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:29 pm
palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:19 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 pm
JonnyB wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pm
The president said in his speech last night "leaders of health insurance industry have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments."

The insurance companies were quick to correct that misstatement. They are only waiving co-payments for coronavirus lab tests, not treatment. This means that you are on the hook, for example, for the $1500 facility fee for walking into an emergency room for testing.

Check with your insurance company before incurring possibly very expensive medical charges.

And these announced waivers do not apply to the roughly half of employees whose employers are self-insured. Check with your employer. And they do not apply to the 30 million uninsured.
You don't "walk" into an emergency room for testing. I don't know why you keep throwing out bizarre strawmen.

Almost every State protocol has discouraged going to a clinic. If you have symptoms, the doctor will either direct you to a State or County lab for a test. If there is no county lab in your area, they will refer you to a private lab like Qwest for taking the test. These are all free.

CDC, States, and hospitals are strongly discouraging anyone to walk into hospitals. Either they will spread the virus, or they will get the virus.
Silly me. I thought hospitals are where people go if they are sick.
Now they are where you go to get sick. I'm steering clear of hospitals. If I was dying from it they couldn't do much for me anyway.
Not true. If you were really sick then ICU and ECMO can help a lot.
If your lungs are filling up with fluid what are they gonna do? And what is ECMO?

marky2kk
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by marky2kk » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:49 pm

Image

Good to see that we are on a steeper trajectory than the Netherlands with much less testing being done here than there.

If the market does not price in a shutdown of the U.S like we see in Italy or Norway now, I will become a market timer after all this is over :D

BogleInvestorLondon
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by BogleInvestorLondon » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:50 pm

Can someone tell me why some doctors are prediction such a high number of deaths, considering China with such a huge number had had ~4000 deaths. Talk of 500,000 deaths (worst case scenario)....why so high compared to China?

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Unladen_Swallow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:53 pm

palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:19 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 pm
JonnyB wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pm
The president said in his speech last night "leaders of health insurance industry have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments."

The insurance companies were quick to correct that misstatement. They are only waiving co-payments for coronavirus lab tests, not treatment. This means that you are on the hook, for example, for the $1500 facility fee for walking into an emergency room for testing.

Check with your insurance company before incurring possibly very expensive medical charges.

And these announced waivers do not apply to the roughly half of employees whose employers are self-insured. Check with your employer. And they do not apply to the 30 million uninsured.
You don't "walk" into an emergency room for testing. I don't know why you keep throwing out bizarre strawmen.

Almost every State protocol has discouraged going to a clinic. If you have symptoms, the doctor will either direct you to a State or County lab for a test. If there is no county lab in your area, they will refer you to a private lab like Qwest for taking the test. These are all free.

CDC, States, and hospitals are strongly discouraging anyone to walk into hospitals. Either they will spread the virus, or they will get the virus.
Silly me. I thought hospitals are where people go if they are sick. Perhaps it's just better to drop dead in the street.
I am happy you found this helpful.

You could try reviewing CDC and your own State Health Department recommendations for addressing this virus. Or if reading is not your medium, there are tons of video announcements providing guidance to the public. If I had a cough, I would avoid a clinic and call a doctor. That is because I am not inconsiderate about others, and I also want to protect myself.

Drama and hyperbole makes a poor substitute for actual discussion.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman

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Tony-S
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tony-S » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:56 pm

Ohio State Health Department has announced they suspect there are about 100,000 people infected in the state. I think they need some clarification as to how they came up with this number.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by fru-gal » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:15 pm

palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:19 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 pm
JonnyB wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pm
The president said in his speech last night "leaders of health insurance industry have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments."

The insurance companies were quick to correct that misstatement. They are only waiving co-payments for coronavirus lab tests, not treatment. This means that you are on the hook, for example, for the $1500 facility fee for walking into an emergency room for testing.

Check with your insurance company before incurring possibly very expensive medical charges.

And these announced waivers do not apply to the roughly half of employees whose employers are self-insured. Check with your employer. And they do not apply to the 30 million uninsured.
You don't "walk" into an emergency room for testing. I don't know why you keep throwing out bizarre strawmen.

Almost every State protocol has discouraged going to a clinic. If you have symptoms, the doctor will either direct you to a State or County lab for a test. If there is no county lab in your area, they will refer you to a private lab like Qwest for taking the test. These are all free.

CDC, States, and hospitals are strongly discouraging anyone to walk into hospitals. Either they will spread the virus, or they will get the virus.
Silly me. I thought hospitals are where people go if they are sick. Perhaps it's just better to drop dead in the street.
Time and again we hear, do not just walk into the ER or your doctor's office, contaminating everybody. Call them for directions or call 911.

oken
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by oken » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:23 pm

BogleInvestorLondon wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:50 pm
Can someone tell me why some doctors are prediction such a high number of deaths, considering China with such a huge number had had ~4000 deaths. Talk of 500,000 deaths (worst case scenario)....why so high compared to China?
China went through extreme measures to manage the spread of the virus. Do you think Europe or US would go through such measures? How do you think the people would respond?

Alaric
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Alaric » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:32 pm

BogleInvestorLondon wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:50 pm
Can someone tell me why some doctors are prediction such a high number of deaths, considering China with such a huge number had had ~4000 deaths. Talk of 500,000 deaths (worst case scenario)....why so high compared to China?
It's hard to understand. The numbers we are hearing don't mesh at all with the curves in China or South Korea, to say the least.

Why Angela Merkel Is Wrong On Her Coronavirus Infection Prediction
[Merkel] said today that two-thirds of Germany could become infected by the new coronavirus COVID-19
Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the U.S. will become infected with COVID-19, NBC News reported Wednesday.
"Could" seems to be the culprit in a lot of these ridiculous numbers, though we don't have an exact quote of what Dr. Monahan told congressional aides yesterday in camera ("expects" is either incredibly strong or incredibly rash on someone's part). If nobody knew anything and nobody did anything, than an infection that has been limited to 81,000 out of 1,428,000 people in China, with fewer than 60 new cases per day being reported (and that new case rate itself dwindling), "could" infect 70,000,000 to 150,000,000 Americans, two-thirds of all Germans, and 80% of all Britons.
“Angela Merkel applied the worst case static logic, meaning no one changes their behavior and it doesn’t go away,” says Brian McCarthy, head of Macrolens, an investment research firm in Stamford, Connecticut. “If no one did anything to take care of themselves and if Germany does nothing, then eventually a very large portion would get it, but it’s unrealistic. We know that behavior changes will flatten the curve on this, and it’s happening in China.
Coronavirus could affect up to 80% of the UK population in a worst case scenario – but the real amount is likely to be much lower, England's chief medical officer has said...

A government “battle plan” revealed at a No10 press conference stated that as much as 80% of the population could be infected in the coming months, but Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said the real amount is likely to be less than that.

"The proportion of the population who get infected is likely to be lower than that and probably a lot lower than that," he said.

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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by zvez » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:34 pm

unlike seasonal flu which is predictable and has been modeled for decades with an historical mortality of around 0.1%, The coronavirus is new and relatively unknown, it's impossible for epidemiologists to consistently modeled the trajectory of the pandemic. Going by the numbers thus far you're looking at a 3-4% mortality rate. BUT, the big factor, the US for instance has only tested a tiny number of people. When more effective testing is done and they see how many people have the virus (I happen to think it's been circulating in the US now for sometime). The experts will get a better idea of mortality and morbidity. BUT it'll probably be after it's over that we find out the true mortality because they'll have to model how many people had corona without seeking medical attention (that will be a sizable number).

The huge plus for us is this virus currently doesn't appear to be nearly as deadly as the spanish flu of 1918 (killed an estimated 50-100 MILLION people, 1.7% of the world population at the time). The key difference, it was deadly to ALL age groups, corona is chiefly deadly to people 60+ and/or people with co-morbidiities like diabetes, etc.

The one key takeaway, if you use same handwashing techniques as you should be using for cold/flu season, AND get in the habit of not touching your face when out in public before washing your hands, that will be the major factor to keep you healthy. Simple as that. Don't need masks or such
Last edited by zvez on Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GaryA505 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:35 pm

Tony-S wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:56 pm
Ohio State Health Department has announced they suspect there are about 100,000 people infected in the state. I think they need some clarification as to how they came up with this number.
This is what I've been saying all along. A lot of us have already had it, or have it. We don't really know if we're only testing dying people or sick people have traveled to a hot spot.

Unlike some other pandemics, children have mild symptoms or none at all, so they're going to school and giving it to their classmates, who then take it home and give it to the whole family. Schools are great germ factories.
Last edited by GaryA505 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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