[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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MtnBiker
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by MtnBiker »

Initial report from researchers in China is that the coronavirus in Wuhan was primarily a more aggressive type. Potential good news if this preliminary data can be confirmed, and if the more aggressive strain can be contained:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... laims.html
A virus which is too aggressive may burn itself out by landing patients in hospital
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firebirdparts
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by firebirdparts »

MtnBiker wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:53 pm Initial report from researchers in China is that the coronavirus in Wuhan was primarily a more aggressive type. Potential good news if this preliminary data can be confirmed, and if the more aggressive strain can be contained:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... laims.html
A virus which is too aggressive may burn itself out by landing patients in hospital
It certainly seemed that way as some of the data began to accumulate. Maybe when things are really calmed down they'll figure it out in more detail.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by abuss368 »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:15 pm Now I'm curious - what is pickleball? I think I ought to take it up.
I have retired colleagues in Florida where it is very popular.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
KlangFool
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KlangFool »

DB2 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:44 pm I trust the South Korea numbers much more than China's.
Then, do you believe South Korea would behave that way if it is just the flu?

KlangFool
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knpstr
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by knpstr »

Galaxy8 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:30 am I keep telling people I hope to get the virus early while we still have vents and ECMO available. :sharebeer
Here is something to think about.
What if you already had it a month ago and never knew it because you just had a runny nose and a sore throat?
You didn't seek medical attention because it was "just a cold".

The vast majority of people that have symptoms will experience just that, something along the lines of a normal "coronavirus" infection, thinking nothing else of it.

They may get it, never seek treatment, recover - yet sit fearful in their homes "hoping to never get it".
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius
Galaxy8
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Galaxy8 »

knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:57 pm
Galaxy8 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:30 am I keep telling people I hope to get the virus early while we still have vents and ECMO available. :sharebeer
Here is something to think about.
What if you already had it a month ago and never knew it because you just had a runny nose and a sore throat?
You didn't seek medical attention because it was "just a cold".

The vast majority of people that have symptoms will experience just that, something along the lines of a normal "coronavirus" infection, thinking nothing else of it.

They may get it, never seek treatment, recover - yet sit fearful in their homes "hoping to never get it".
Preach.
capjak
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by capjak »

Back in 2009 was there this type of hysteria over swine flu that started in the US and infected 20+ million?

I don't remember people running to stores to get water/masks etc... but maybe they did? I know we were unprepared but I do not remember the panic and my son was in College where they would send you home from college if you tested positive but schools were not closed.
clip651
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by clip651 »

Galaxy8 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:58 pm
knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:57 pm
Galaxy8 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:30 am I keep telling people I hope to get the virus early while we still have vents and ECMO available. :sharebeer
Here is something to think about.
What if you already had it a month ago and never knew it because you just had a runny nose and a sore throat?
You didn't seek medical attention because it was "just a cold".

The vast majority of people that have symptoms will experience just that, something along the lines of a normal "coronavirus" infection, thinking nothing else of it.

They may get it, never seek treatment, recover - yet sit fearful in their homes "hoping to never get it".
Preach.
And others who think they just have a cold and this whole thing is hysteria and is no big deal, may visit their grandparents, hug and kiss them, and then one or both grandparents wind up needing a ventilator. The risk of this happening with COVID-19 appears to be much higher than with our usual cold and flu bugs.

Not saying it will be common, but it's certainly one of the reasons why caution is indicated while we are learning more about this disease.

Maybe none of you complaining about hysteria have any older relatives and friends with underlying health conditions that you care about. The preliminary stats for those groups are not pretty. To me it is worrying that there is no way to tell who has a cold and who has a mild case of coronavirus infection because of testing limitations. So if you're in a high risk group (or care about other family members who are), you don't have a way to know how to avoid exposure, unless the containment efforts on an international scale succeed.

I'm not advocating for hysteria, by any means. But containment attempts, precautions (and some related hopefully temporary market fallout that may occur from containment effects) seem to be warranted here. And more than one foreign government agrees with that. Italy, China, and South Korea don't exactly have identical economies, government structures, goals, etc. But all those countries are taking this seriously and trying to contain this, and taking various degrees of hits to their economies, for example.

So stay the course with your investments, if your plan was built to take you through thick and thin.

Meanwhile, be kind to each other. When you go to a store or sit on a train, you don't know who is in a vulnerable population (cancer patient, diabetes, heart disease, etc), or caring for others who are. So cover your cough, stay home when you're sick, stop accusing folks of hysteria, and keep washing your hands.
Last edited by clip651 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Jebediah
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Jebediah »

I'm calling a COVID bottom.

Second derivative of new infections in S Korea down this week compared to last.
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

"The Misleading Arithmetic of Covid-19 Death rates"
Assuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease (the death rate) must surely have been much lower than the 2–3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported.

...

A Chinese study in the Journal of the American Medical Association, February 20, found a “case‐​fatality rate” of 2.3%, meaning 1,023 died out of 44,672 cases. But the total sample in that study (72,314) included an additional 27,642 non‐​confirmed cases, and simply including cases (let alone unreported minor cases) would have reduced the fatality rate to 1.4%. China‐​based estimates are largely confined to cases with the most severe symptoms, so it should be no surprise that the reported death rate among severe cases is much higher than it would be if the data also included “most people” who “have a mild disease and get better.” The risk of infecting more people is also more severe in China data, since severe cases are concentrated and transmitted in hospitals. This can also lead to overstated estimates of how many people are infected by someone with COVID-19, including the WHO “reproduction number” estimate of 1.4–2.5, which is mainly based on evidence from China.

By the morning of March 2, there had been 89,253 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported around the world, with about 96% of those in Asia. For comparison, the were an estimated 37.9 million people living with HIV in 2018.

It is worth noting that have also been 45,393 known recoveries from COVID-19 (compared to 3048 cumulative deaths) and, importantly, recoveries have been outnumbering new cases.
https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading-ar ... eath-rates
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JonnyB
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by JonnyB »

CT-Scott wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:21 pm
KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:13 pm 1) There is no such thing as the death rate.
Just to follow-up on this since the headline of the article I posted the link to used the term "death rate", if you read the article they appear to use proper terminology. Here's are some snippets:
World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.
Now, that said, the *vast* majority of the cases are still from China, so as this continues to spread, I fully expect that the mortality rate numbers will continue to be revised.
The article is written by an uninformed journalist.

"World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4%"
This is not a quote because the WHO would never say something like that. The number quoted is the CFR, Case Fatality Ratio. The word mortality was added by the journalist, which is an error.

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died"
That is what WHO actually said, without the word mortality. That is the CFR.

Death rate is a layman's term. Generally what laymen mean by death rate is CFR, Case Fatality Ratio, not mortality.
Last edited by JonnyB on Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DB2
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by DB2 »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:42 pm
DB2 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:44 pm I trust the South Korea numbers much more than China's.
Then, do you believe South Korea would behave that way if it is just the flu?

KlangFool
I think it's worse than typical flu. The virus appears to have come from a cave picked up from a bat. Who knows what's lurking in some of these caves.

As of yesterday, S. Korea had 5,186 total reported cases; 28 deaths.
KlangFool
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KlangFool »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:14 pm "The Misleading Arithmetic of Covid-19 Death rates"
Assuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease (the death rate) must surely have been much lower than the 2–3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported.

...

A Chinese study in the Journal of the American Medical Association, February 20, found a “case‐​fatality rate” of 2.3%, meaning 1,023 died out of 44,672 cases. But the total sample in that study (72,314) included an additional 27,642 non‐​confirmed cases, and simply including cases (let alone unreported minor cases) would have reduced the fatality rate to 1.4%. China‐​based estimates are largely confined to cases with the most severe symptoms, so it should be no surprise that the reported death rate among severe cases is much higher than it would be if the data also included “most people” who “have a mild disease and get better.” The risk of infecting more people is also more severe in China data, since severe cases are concentrated and transmitted in hospitals. This can also lead to overstated estimates of how many people are infected by someone with COVID-19, including the WHO “reproduction number” estimate of 1.4–2.5, which is mainly based on evidence from China.

By the morning of March 2, there had been 89,253 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported around the world, with about 96% of those in Asia. For comparison, the were an estimated 37.9 million people living with HIV in 2018.

It is worth noting that have also been 45,393 known recoveries from COVID-19 (compared to 3048 cumulative deaths) and, importantly, recoveries have been outnumbering new cases.
https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading-ar ... eath-rates
Unladen_Swallow,

In summary, you believe the numbers reported by China. And, you believe that China would shut down her economy for a few thousand deaths. If my interpretation of your post is wrong, please correct me.

KlangFool
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knpstr
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by knpstr »

clip651 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:11 pm And others who think they just have a cold and this whole thing is hysteria and is no big deal, may visit their grandparents, hug and kiss them, and then one or both grandparents wind up needing a ventilator. The risk of this happening with COVID-19 appears to be much higher than with our usual cold and flu bugs.
What kind of terrible person visits their grandparents hugs/kisses them while they have an active "cold" under any circumstances?!
Last edited by knpstr on Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius
Irisheyes
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Irisheyes »

Italy as of today, 3090 cases, with 107 deaths.

They have closed ALL schools and universities.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus
columbia
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

Is the “it’s just flu” some sort of science is irrelevant thing?
I don’t get it.
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knpstr
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by knpstr »

Irisheyes wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:26 pm Italy as of today, 3090 cases, with 107 deaths.

They have closed ALL schools and universities.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus
Have they shutdown all businesses?
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius
Irisheyes
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Irisheyes »

knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:30 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:26 pm Italy as of today, 3090 cases, with 107 deaths.

They have closed ALL schools and universities.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus
Have they shutdown all businesses?
article is not behind a paywall.
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:24 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:14 pm "The Misleading Arithmetic of Covid-19 Death rates"
Assuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease (the death rate) must surely have been much lower than the 2–3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported.

...

A Chinese study in the Journal of the American Medical Association, February 20, found a “case‐​fatality rate” of 2.3%, meaning 1,023 died out of 44,672 cases. But the total sample in that study (72,314) included an additional 27,642 non‐​confirmed cases, and simply including cases (let alone unreported minor cases) would have reduced the fatality rate to 1.4%. China‐​based estimates are largely confined to cases with the most severe symptoms, so it should be no surprise that the reported death rate among severe cases is much higher than it would be if the data also included “most people” who “have a mild disease and get better.” The risk of infecting more people is also more severe in China data, since severe cases are concentrated and transmitted in hospitals. This can also lead to overstated estimates of how many people are infected by someone with COVID-19, including the WHO “reproduction number” estimate of 1.4–2.5, which is mainly based on evidence from China.

By the morning of March 2, there had been 89,253 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported around the world, with about 96% of those in Asia. For comparison, the were an estimated 37.9 million people living with HIV in 2018.

It is worth noting that have also been 45,393 known recoveries from COVID-19 (compared to 3048 cumulative deaths) and, importantly, recoveries have been outnumbering new cases.
https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading-ar ... eath-rates
Unladen_Swallow,

In summary, you believe the numbers reported by China. And, you believe that China would shut down her economy for a few thousand deaths. If my interpretation of your post is wrong, please correct me.

KlangFool
Klangfool,

I don't believe, nor do I "not believe" the news from China. This would imply I have some inside knowledge. However, I am "inclined" to believe it us more truthful than not as it has been verified by other agencies including US experts.

Maybe it is all humbug. Then I would be wrong. At this time I don't have reason to think it is.

I am also tracking US cases. I will certainly have more faith in it. And until now it has not caused me to worry any more than a regular virus. Care, caution, avoid sick people, wash hands, avoid large gatherings.

My spouse is much more "things will be really bad". I am not. I grew up in the developing world, I look at stuff a bit differently....we survive everything. Nothing stops.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
KlangFool
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KlangFool »

columbia wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:29 pm Is the “it’s just flu” some sort of science is irrelevant thing?
I don’t get it.
columbia,

1) What is the Case Fatality Rate for the flu?

2) What is the Case Fatality Rate for the Coronavirus?

Compare the numbers. You would know your answer.

KlangFool
CT-Scott
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by CT-Scott »

knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:25 pmWhat kind of terrible person visits their grandparents hugs/kisses them while they have an active "cold" under any circumstances?!
Is this a serious question? I'm curious how young you might be, as it seems like you have a lot fewer years of life-experience than I do. Or maybe you're from a particular ethnicity/culture where people are especially conscious/considerate about that sort of thing. In my experience, I've frequently encountered a much more cavalier attitude when someone thinks they just have a cold. They will not change their normal activity as a result of "just" having a cold. They may avoid seeing an elderly parent/grandparent who is ill, but often will not avoid seeing them otherwise.
Corsair
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Corsair »

Per CNBC Italy’s death count went up to 107, with 3090 cases. That is a 3.4% death rate. 276 recovered.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
JonnyB
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by JonnyB »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:32 pm
columbia wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:29 pm Is the “it’s just flu” some sort of science is irrelevant thing?
I don’t get it.
columbia,

1) What is the Case Fatality Rate for the flu?

2) What is the Case Fatality Rate for the Coronavirus?

Compare the numbers. You would know your answer.

KlangFool
Sorry to be pedantic, but it is Case Fatality Ratio, not rate. I sometimes type the same mistake.

The important distinction is that CFR is a ratio, not a rate. Rate implies time and CFR has no element of time. It is just cases vs fatalities, a ratio.

And then you have mortality rate. Mortality rate definitely has an element of time. It is your probability of dying over some period of time, typically one year. And it applies to the entire population, not just those who have a disease. So, for example, the mortality rate for heart attack means the probability of anyone dying from heart attack in one year.
KlangFool
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by KlangFool »

Corsair wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:45 pm Per CNBC Italy’s death count went up to 107, with 3090 cases. That is a 3.4% death rate. 276 recovered.
Corsair,

Please use the proper term: Case Fatality Ratio. How does this number compare to the flu?

KlangFool
Jebediah
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Jebediah »

Keep an eye on Seoul. So far, S Korea's outbreak has been contained to mostly two metro regions. Seoul is not one of them. If Seoul's containment success holds, that bodes well.

Other comments from WHO personnel gives hope on the transmissivity front. There's reason to be optimistic that COVID will not be "everywhere" like flu.

CFR is harder to be optimistic about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... outh_Korea
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knpstr
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by knpstr »

CT-Scott wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:43 pm
knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:25 pmWhat kind of terrible person visits their grandparents hugs/kisses them while they have an active "cold" under any circumstances?!
Is this a serious question? I'm curious how young you might be, as it seems like you have a lot fewer years of life-experience than I do. Or maybe you're from a particular ethnicity/culture where people are especially conscious/considerate about that sort of thing. In my experience, I've frequently encountered a much more cavalier attitude when someone thinks they just have a cold. They will not change their normal activity as a result of "just" having a cold. They may avoid seeing an elderly parent/grandparent who is ill, but often will not avoid seeing them otherwise.
I'm in my mid 30s.
My father and myself and all of my siblings are all in the healthcare field.
Perhaps we are more cognizant of our health than the average person, but it is reckless to kiss your grandparents (or anyone who may have a compromised immune system) while you are sick -- even with the "common cold".

As a matter of fact, I don't kiss my wife/child when I'm sick and vice versa. If you love someone why would you want to risk even giving them a cold? Seems like common sense to me, but perhaps it isn't.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius
MtnBiker
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by MtnBiker »

DB2 wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:44 pm I trust the South Korea numbers much more than China's.
I sure wish South Korea would start reporting accurate records on the number of recovered. To date they report 5621 cases, 35 deaths, and 41 recovered. So the case recovery ratio, recovered/(recovered + deaths), is 54% ? :oops:
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

Chinese researchers say 2 types of coronavirus could be infecting people
The preliminary study, conducted by researchers from Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institute Pasteur of Shanghai under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, revealed that the infection has evolved into two major types, designated L and S.

The L type, which is more aggressive, was more prevalent during the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the original epicenter of the virus — and accounted for about 70 percent of analyzed strains . About 30 percent of those strains were linked to the S type, considered less aggressive.

The prevalence of the L type decreased after early January, researchers found.

...

“If the L type is more aggressive than the S type, why did the relative frequency of the L type decrease compared to the S type in other places after the initial breakout in Wuhan?” they wrote. “One possible explanation is that, since January 2020, the Chinese central and local governments have taken rapid and comprehensive prevention and control measures.”

“These human intervention efforts might have caused severe selective pressure against the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly,” they explained. “The S type, on the other hand, might have experienced weaker selective pressure by human intervention, leading to an increase in its relative abundance among the SARS-CoV-2 viruses.”
https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/chinese-r ... ng-people/

There are those that will dismiss all articles out of China, or that are not claiming the end of the world. I choose to take this at face value.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:01 pm
I'm in my mid 30s.
My father and myself and all of my siblings are all in the healthcare field.
Perhaps we are more cognizant of our health than the average person, but it is reckless to kiss your grandparents (or anyone who may have a compromised immune system) while you are sick -- even with the "common cold".

As a matter of fact, I don't kiss my wife/child when I'm sick and vice versa. If you love someone why would you want to risk even giving them a cold? Seems like common sense to me, but perhaps it isn't.
Seems intuitive to me. When I have a cold, I especially avoid kids and elders, and contact with others until I am better. I excuse myself from handshakes, hugs etc.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
RubyTuesday
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by RubyTuesday »

Lawrence Summers expressed concerns (similar concerns voiced in several BH threads) over the Fed’s decision to ease rates and suggested some things the Fed and Federal Govt could do that would be effective:

What the Fed can do to help with coronavirus’s economic aftershock

I won’t summarize all of the suggestions he makes, which are IMO good, but I don’t want to quote too much of the article... That said, here are some key critical points (with bold sections by me):
The questions in the current moment properly revolve first and foremost around public-health strategy. But there is much for economic policymakers to consider as well. Unfortunately, the tool that has received the most attention — monetary policy — is not likely to be very effective in a crisis of this kind, and the way it’s used could create problems down the road. It may on balance be desirable to cut interest rates — as the Fed voted to do Tuesday ― but the principal focus should be elsewhere.
But when GDP falls because businesses cannot get components necessary to generate output, because quarantines limit people’s ability to work and because potential customers are rationally afraid to enter public spaces, then monetary policy is much less useful.
And maybe most importantly:
There are also tactical issues to consider. The hardest moments for economic policymakers are when the power of the tool at their disposal is less than what is generally supposed. In such a circumstance, policy can function better as a potentially potent “sword of Damocles” than it would if its limited efficacy were laid bare. Closely related to this is the idea of never shooting your last bullet. And to the almost inevitable extent that it would appear political, a sharp move to easy money may undercut the Fed’s credibility.
Last edited by RubyTuesday on Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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kksmom
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by kksmom »

Re "Calculating" CFR, versus"estimating"
Its not possible to calculate it , during an epidemic. Or when there is no means to test the disease or inadequate testing as it seems. Or where the data cant be verified.
One can however estimate , if one understands the caveats....

"“While an epidemic is still evolving, only some of the individuals affected by the disease will have died or recovered. Only at the end of an epidemic can an absolute value be calculated, taking into account total deaths, total recoveries and people lost to follow-up. Calculating case fatality as the number of deaths reported divided by the number of cases reported irrespective of the time elapsed since they became ill gives an underestimate of the true case fatality ratio.”"
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/
kksmom
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by kksmom »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:05 pm Chinese researchers say 2 types of coronavirus could be infecting people
...
Viral multiplication/mutation results in various strains , eventually antigenic drifts and shifts
CT-Scott
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by CT-Scott »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:10 pm
knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:01 pm
I'm in my mid 30s.
My father and myself and all of my siblings are all in the healthcare field.
Perhaps we are more cognizant of our health than the average person, but it is reckless to kiss your grandparents (or anyone who may have a compromised immune system) while you are sick -- even with the "common cold".

As a matter of fact, I don't kiss my wife/child when I'm sick and vice versa. If you love someone why would you want to risk even giving them a cold? Seems like common sense to me, but perhaps it isn't.
Seems intuitive to me. When I have a cold, I especially avoid kids and elders, and contact with others until I am better. I excuse myself from handshakes, hugs etc.
My wife and I are with you two, though I've traditionally been much less of a germaphobe than my wife, such that I typically have never "worried" about coming in contact with someone else who has a cold, when I do not. When I am sick (even with just a cold) I try to avoid exposing anyone else, especially the elderly. *BUT* what I haven't ever done was to stop going out in public, grocery shopping, or "quarantining" myself when I think I just have a cold, and if I can be a carrier showing only "common cold" symptoms, but actually be a carrier for Coronavirus, then I'd likely be spreading it in those places, such that an elderly person could be exposed unintentionally.
quantAndHold
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by quantAndHold »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:48 pm
Corsair wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:45 pm Per CNBC Italy’s death count went up to 107, with 3090 cases. That is a 3.4% death rate. 276 recovered.
Corsair,

Please use the proper term: Case Fatality Ratio. How does this number compare to the flu?

KlangFool
Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate:

1918 Spanish Flu > 2.5%
1968 Hong Kong Flu 0.1%
Typical flu year < 0.1%

I think it's too early to get a reliable Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19. But I think there *is* enough data to know that it's worse than the flu.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
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Tony-S
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Tony-S »

MtnBiker wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:53 pm Initial report from researchers in China is that the coronavirus in Wuhan was primarily a more aggressive type. Potential good news if this preliminary data can be confirmed, and if the more aggressive strain can be contained:
There were two prominent genotypes in Wuhan, one of which emerged rather rapidly and seems to be associated with about 70% of their serve cases.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Look at the purple lines - the one below is the one associated with more severe disease.
Last edited by Tony-S on Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

CT-Scott wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:10 pm
knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:01 pm
I'm in my mid 30s.
My father and myself and all of my siblings are all in the healthcare field.
Perhaps we are more cognizant of our health than the average person, but it is reckless to kiss your grandparents (or anyone who may have a compromised immune system) while you are sick -- even with the "common cold".

As a matter of fact, I don't kiss my wife/child when I'm sick and vice versa. If you love someone why would you want to risk even giving them a cold? Seems like common sense to me, but perhaps it isn't.
Seems intuitive to me. When I have a cold, I especially avoid kids and elders, and contact with others until I am better. I excuse myself from handshakes, hugs etc.
My wife and I are with you two, though I've traditionally been much less of a germaphobe than my wife, such that I typically have never "worried" about coming in contact with someone else who has a cold, when I do not. When I am sick (even with just a cold) I try to avoid exposing anyone else, especially the elderly. *BUT* what I haven't ever done was to stop going out in public, grocery shopping, or "quarantining" myself when I think I just have a cold, and if I can be a carrier showing only "common cold" symptoms, but actually be a carrier for Coronavirus, then I'd likely be spreading it in those places, such that an elderly person could be exposed unintentionally.
I am not a germaphobe at all. Not one bit. But I am cognizant of others...they don't need my germs.

I just attended 2 days of conference. I shook hands with people, and I washed hands a few times. There was one person that had the sniffles and didn't shake hands. I wondered why they just didn't stay home. That is inconsiderate...regardless of what they had. Especially in this environment where people are worried.

I have a home office, so I don't interact with others. But I have had lunch meetings with clients. Life goes on.

I plan to get supplies for the house today. I wonder if Whole Foods will be empty.


People on this board might think I am being unreasonably optimistic. I am not. But i save my worry for a time when i have a reason to worry. Imagining the worst doesn't help. Especially when it seems like the worst is an unlikely scenario ( from what I can tell).
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Tony-S »

kksmom wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:05 pm Chinese researchers say 2 types of coronavirus could be infecting people
...
Viral multiplication/mutation results in various strains , eventually antigenic drifts and shifts
Coronaviruses don't shift. They can drift and they can undergo recombination, but not shift (reassortment).
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by CT-Scott »

I felt pretty confident that the cruise ship industry would be hit hard until this settled down (I'm still cautiously optimistic/hopeful that it *will* settle down within a couple of months), but I didn't think about some other ancillary impacts to their industry, until I just saw this headline:

Princess cruise ship met with violent protest in Réunion over lack of coronavirus testing
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/c ... 950651002/
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by jay22 »

columbia
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by columbia »

I had a meeting with a vendor this morning and he acted all weird, when I wouldn’t shake his hand. Dummy...
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by HomerJ »

JonnyB wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:16 pmThe article is written by an uninformed journalist.

"World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4%"
This is not a quote because the WHO would never say something like that. The number quoted is the CFR, Case Fatality Ratio. The word mortality was added by the journalist, which is an error.

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died"
That is what WHO actually said, without the word mortality. That is the CFR.

Death rate is a layman's term. Generally what laymen mean by death rate is CFR, Case Fatality Ratio, not mortality.
No, what laymen mean by death rate is mortality. Laymen are unaware of the difference between CFR and mortality.

That's why we're laymen.

And that what is causing all the confusion in the media and on this board.

People see 2%, 3% CFR, and continue to post about how 20 million people are going to die.

We don't know the mortality rate yet, because we don't know how many people get the disease and don't become confirmed cases.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by barberakb »

knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:01 pm
CT-Scott wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:43 pm
knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:25 pmWhat kind of terrible person visits their grandparents hugs/kisses them while they have an active "cold" under any circumstances?!
Is this a serious question? I'm curious how young you might be, as it seems like you have a lot fewer years of life-experience than I do. Or maybe you're from a particular ethnicity/culture where people are especially conscious/considerate about that sort of thing. In my experience, I've frequently encountered a much more cavalier attitude when someone thinks they just have a cold. They will not change their normal activity as a result of "just" having a cold. They may avoid seeing an elderly parent/grandparent who is ill, but often will not avoid seeing them otherwise.
I'm in my mid 30s.
My father and myself and all of my siblings are all in the healthcare field.
Perhaps we are more cognizant of our health than the average person, but it is reckless to kiss your grandparents (or anyone who may have a compromised immune system) while you are sick -- even with the "common cold".

As a matter of fact, I don't kiss my wife/child when I'm sick and vice versa. If you love someone why would you want to risk even giving them a cold? Seems like common sense to me, but perhaps it isn't.
Im pretty sure you are the exception, not the norm.
kksmom
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by kksmom »

Tony-S wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:43 pm
kksmom wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:05 pm Chinese researchers say 2 types of coronavirus could be infecting people
...
Viral multiplication/mutation results in various strains , eventually antigenic drifts and shifts
Coronaviruses don't shift. They can drift and they can undergo recombination, but not shift (reassortment).

Would appreciate references to explanations as to why "Coronaviruses don't shift".
Thanks
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Tony-S
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by Tony-S »

kksmom wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:00 pm
Tony-S wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:43 pm
kksmom wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:05 pm Chinese researchers say 2 types of coronavirus could be infecting people
...
Viral multiplication/mutation results in various strains , eventually antigenic drifts and shifts
Coronaviruses don't shift. They can drift and they can undergo recombination, but not shift (reassortment).
Would appreciate references to explanations as to why "Coronaviruses don't shift".
Thanks
"Shift" only occurs in RNA viruses with segmented genomes (e.g., orthomyxo, reo, bunya and arenaviruses). Co-infection of a cell with two viruses of the same or similar species leads to reassortment, which is what "shift" is. For example, influenza A viruses (orthomyxoviruses) have 8 segments of RNA. If a cell is infected with two distinct influenza A viruses, then the possible reassortment of these 8 segments is 2^8 (256). Coronaviruses have only a single piece of RNA for their genomes, thus reassortment cannot occur.
kksmom
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by kksmom »

Tony-S wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:11 pm
kksmom wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:00 pm
Tony-S wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:43 pm
kksmom wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:05 pm Chinese researchers say 2 types of coronavirus could be infecting people
...
Viral multiplication/mutation results in various strains , eventually antigenic drifts and shifts
Coronaviruses don't shift. They can drift and they can undergo recombination, but not shift (reassortment).
Would appreciate references to explanations as to why "Coronaviruses don't shift".
Thanks
"Shift" only occurs in RNA viruses with segmented genomes (e.g., orthomyxo, reo, bunya and arenaviruses). Co-infection of a cell with two viruses of the same or similar species leads to reassortment, which is what "shift" is. For example, influenza A viruses (orthomyxoviruses) have 8 segments of RNA. If a cell is infected with two distinct influenza A viruses, then the possible reassortment of these 8 segments is 2^8 (256). Coronaviruses have only a single piece of RNA for their genomes, thus reassortment cannot occur.

Good to know. thanks
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by UpsetRaptor »

knpstr wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:01 pm
As a matter of fact, I don't kiss my wife/child when I'm sick and vice versa. If you love someone why would you want to risk even giving them a cold? Seems like common sense to me, but perhaps it isn't.
Exposure to cold/flu viruses when young yield a stronger immune system with more antibodies when old. Even getting a different virus/illness later in life, if you've been exposed to something similar before, the effects are often lessened.

I wouldn't intentionally give someone an illness, but too much sheltering can be detrimental long term as well. As with many things health-related, a reasonable middle ground is often best.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by knpstr »

UpsetRaptor wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:41 pm
Exposure to cold/flu viruses when young yield a stronger immune system with more antibodies when old. Even getting a different virus/illness later in life, if you've been exposed to something similar before, the effects are often lessened.

I wouldn't intentionally give someone an illness, but too much sheltering can be detrimental long term as well. As with many things health-related, a reasonable middle ground is often best.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by LadyGeek »

A number of posts discussing the coronavirus only have been moved into this thread from: Coronavirus and the market

Please use this thread for general discussions.
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Re: Coronavirus and the market

Post by JonnyB »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:58 pm
JonnyB wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:16 pmThe article is written by an uninformed journalist.

"World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4%"
This is not a quote because the WHO would never say something like that. The number quoted is the CFR, Case Fatality Ratio. The word mortality was added by the journalist, which is an error.

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died"
That is what WHO actually said, without the word mortality. That is the CFR.

Death rate is a layman's term. Generally what laymen mean by death rate is CFR, Case Fatality Ratio, not mortality.
No, what laymen mean by death rate is mortality. Laymen are unaware of the difference between CFR and mortality.

That's why we're laymen.

And that what is causing all the confusion in the media and on this board.

People see 2%, 3% CFR, and continue to post about how 20 million people are going to die.

We don't know the mortality rate yet, because we don't know how many people get the disease and don't become confirmed cases.
I'm sorry, but you have this exactly backwards.

When laymen talk about the 2%, 3% death rate, they are talking about CFR, whether they know it or not. The 2% or 3% is the number of deaths divided by the number who get the disease or confirmed cases. It's right there in the name - Case Fatality Ratio - number of fatalities divided by number of symptomatic cases.

Mortality rate has absolutely nothing to do with how many get the disease or how many confirmed cases. It's how many people who die in a year out of the entire population. More precisely, it is the number of deaths per person-year. It has the dimensions of time. It does not count cases. It only counts deaths.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by guyinlaw »

Korea has tested 103k and US had tested around 500 till few days ago. Even UK, which has fewer infections than US, has tested more than 13k..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -testing/

It is very sad that we are behind the 8 ball here.

Experts have said that we will find 1000s of infected in US in the coming weeks..

We have to expect widespread closures and virus coming back in Fall. Hope the mortality is low under 0.5%. But until there is no vaccine, which at the min is 13 months away it is very scary.
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