Bogleheads and ChatGPT

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HockeyFan99
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Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by HockeyFan99 »

This is maybe a bit off topic (?) but is anybody else thinking about the potential to apply GPT-3 or a similar AI model to the Boglehead experience?

There is a large corpus of material on which a model could be initially trained, plus a large and active expert community that could provide feedback and supervision to content generated by the model (e.g., vetting answers in response to questions).

Use cases I could see:

- Generating first drafts of Wiki content for requested topics
- Identifying frequently asked questions that should have Wiki pages but do not currently (gap identification)
- Providing initial (and real-time) responses to certain posts that can then be adjusted / expanded upon by the community (these could potentially be subject to moderator approval, but with the right transparency / disclaimers I’m not sure that would be necessary)
- Likely lots of other use cases the community could think of

The implementation of this would not be trivial, but I’m imagining there are some forum members with the technical ability - and perhaps interest? - to engage with this.

If anybody is interested in exploring more I’d welcome feedback / ideas.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by LadyGeek »

Interesting idea, but there are a lot of issues.

- The wiki must cite a credible source appropriate for the Bogleheads investment philosophy. GPT doesn't do that. Additionally, it must be from the appropriate source - not a generic investing site.

- You are asking for automated responses to posts. How is that different from a robo-advisor? How would it handle follow-ups or changes in the situation?

- You are asking the moderators to edit / review / approve responses. That's not what we do. The members are the ones who supply responses. Bear in mind that some decisions are also based on emotion. You can't code that.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Mudpuppy »

I don't think GPT-3 is quite ready for creating accurate post answers or Wiki pages. It gets things stupendously wrong at times; the very definition of confidently incorrect. That's not what you want in a finance forum or Wiki.

If an individual Wiki author wants to use AI algorithms to "prettify" their page by providing them a draft to modify, that's up to those authors, but the algorithms are not ready to be released unsupervised and supervising them is above and beyond the call of duty for the forum moderators.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Stinky »

Mudpuppy wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 10:16 pm I don't think GPT-3 is quite ready for creating accurate post answers or Wiki pages. It gets things stupendously wrong at times; the very definition of confidently incorrect. That's not what you want in a finance forum or Wiki.

If an individual Wiki author wants to use AI algorithms to "prettify" their page by providing them a draft to modify, that's up to those authors, but the algorithms are not ready to be released unsupervised and supervising them is above and beyond the call of duty for the forum moderators.
Nicely stated.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Geologist »

It is well known that the quality of an AI's output depends on the quality of its training set and some AI analyses have latched on to irrelevant qualities of the supplied training sets (e.g., separating wolves from dogs based on the presence of snow in the photos of the wolves). Applying an AI algorithm to Boglehead material would take considerable effort to avoid such artifacts. I don't know who would do it and I doubt it would be worth the effort.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Parkinglotracer »

We should ask GPT if it can do better than Stinky when asked about annuities or better than Taylor when asked about boglehead principles - no way no matter what it says!

It is amazing what GPT can do though from what I have seen.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Tdubs »

I asked ChatGPT whether I should claim SSA at full retirement age or wait till 70. A decent but meh response.

"The decision to claim Social Security benefits is a personal one that depends on your individual circumstances. Here are some factors to consider when deciding when to claim your benefits:

Your current financial situation: If you need the income now, you may want to claim your benefits as soon as possible. On the other hand, if you have other sources of income and can afford to wait, you may want to delay claiming your benefits until you reach age 70, when they will be larger.

Your expected lifespan: If you expect to live a long time, you may want to delay claiming your benefits so that you can receive a larger monthly payment for a longer period of time.

Your health: If you have health issues that may shorten your lifespan, you may want to claim your benefits as soon as possible in order to receive them for a longer period of time.

Your family history: If you have a family history of longevity, you may want to delay claiming your benefits in order to receive a larger monthly payment for a longer period of time.

Ultimately, the decision of when to claim your Social Security benefits is a personal one that depends on your individual circumstances. It may be helpful to speak with a financial advisor or use online tools to help you make this decision."
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by LiveSimple »

Response from ChatGPT

To summarize, Taylor Larimore's contributions to the Boglehead philosophy include:

Emphasizing the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in investing, and not getting too caught up in short-term market fluctuations.
Advising investors to be patient and disciplined, and to resist the temptation to try to "time the market" or make impulsive decisions based on short-term events.
Emphasizing the importance of diversification in investing, and advising investors to build a well-diversified portfolio that reflects their goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, and to periodically rebalance to maintain their desired asset allocation.
Advising investors to keep their costs low by using low-cost index funds and avoiding unnecessary expenses, such as high fees and commissions.
In addition to these principles, Larimore has also written extensively about the benefits of index fund investing and the importance of keeping investment costs low. He has also provided practical guidance to investors on how to build and manage a long-term investment portfolio.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by LiveSimple »

Again from GPT on Bogleheads Principles
Mostly from the existing web pages

The Bogleheads are a group of investors who follow the investment philosophy of John C. Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and advocate of index fund investing. The Boglehead philosophy can be summarized as follows:

Start investing as soon as possible, because time is your greatest asset when it comes to investing.
Use low-cost index funds to build a diversified portfolio that reflects your goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
Don't try to time the market or pick individual stocks. Instead, focus on long-term, buy-and-hold investing.
Keep your costs low by using low-cost index funds and avoiding unnecessary expenses, such as high fees and commissions.
Keep your portfolio balanced and diversified, and periodically rebalance to maintain your desired asset allocation.
Don't let your emotions get the best of you. Stick to your long-term plan and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations.
Minimize taxes by holding your investments in tax-advantaged accounts, such as 401(k)s and IRAs, whenever possible.
Don't take on more risk than you can handle. Determine your risk tolerance and invest accordingly.
Stay informed about your investments, but don't let news headlines or market speculation drive your investment decisions.
Remember that investing is a long-term process, and don't get discouraged by short-term market fluctuations. Stay focused on your long-term goals, and be patient.
Invest when you have the money, sell when you need the money, for real life expenses...
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by nedsaid »

I have joked a lot here about artificial intelligence and algorithms. I don't know, I just hate dealing with machines. All the tracking and profiling and personal information stored on data bases. A machine trying to establish a "relationship" and offering "helpful" suggestions. I don't give a rat's rear end what other books other readers like who browsed the same book that I did. One reason I hated Amazon. Great place to shop in many ways, I just find it so intrusive knowing that every click is tracked and the information being sent heaven knows where.

It seems seems to be an intrusion into my humanity. The idea that I can be reduced to a set of algorithms. Hence my rant thread titled "Please Turn Auto-Complete Off." Turned out the feature was embedded in the browser and not the forum software but I had some fun with the thread. It is just that it bugs me that I can't just browse a website without being monitored, tracked, and profiled. I just want to browse books and I feel like the Gestapo tracks my every click and how long I stay at a particular page reading the reviews of a book. I feel like I am committing some sort of thought crime. Thus I shop at Amazon as little as possible. In a similar fashion, it bugs me when "we know better than you" software wants to critique everything that I want to write. I just want to write, I don't want to be criticized with every keystroke.

I feel like software reduces writing to grammatically correct communication but it leads to a very bland writing style and almost a soulless neutral expression as there is no emotion or passion. It would be like a forum dominated by algebra equations and complex math, useful but not much fun to read. Or sort of like reading IRS Instruction booklets. Sometimes, I even hate spell checkers.

Using AI to help with the forum would in my view take the humanity out of it and turn it into sort of a soulless recitation of facts and figures. We argue passionately here over a lot of stuff that doesn't matter a whole lot but that is part of the forum's charm.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Stinky »

Parkinglotracer wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 7:18 am We should ask GPT if it can do better than Stinky when asked about annuities or better than Taylor when asked about boglehead principles - no way no matter what it says!
No chat bot could ever replace Taylor.

And I sure hope that I am also “irreplaceable” - at least when it comes to comments on annuities. :D

An example - if a person asks “is a variable annuity appropriate for me”, about 95+% of the time the answer is “no” if one follows general Boglehead principles. But about 5% of the time, the answer is “maybe”, or even “yes”.

I don’t know that a chat bot can sort through the nuances of such a decision, in an interactive fashion, especially if the person asking the question isn’t deeply informed about the question he/she is posing.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by LiveSimple »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:41 am We argue passionately here over a lot of stuff that doesn't matter a whole lot but that is part of the forum's charm.
Well said nedsaid :thumbsup :thumbsup :thumbsup
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by jebmke »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:41 am I have joked a lot here about artificial intelligence and algorithms. I don't know, I just hate dealing with machines. All the tracking and profiling and personal information stored on data bases. A machine trying to establish a "relationship" and offering "helpful" suggestions. I don't give a rat's rear end what other books other readers like who browsed the same book that I did. One reason I hated Amazon. Great place to shop in many ways, I just find it so intrusive knowing that every click is tracked and the information being sent heaven knows where.

It seems seems to be an intrusion into my humanity. The idea that I can be reduced to a set of algorithms. Hence my rant thread titled "Please Turn Auto-Complete Off." Turned out the feature was embedded in the browser and not the forum software but I had some fun with the thread. It is just that it bugs me that I can't just browse a website without being monitored, tracked, and profiled. I just want to browse books and I feel like the Gestapo tracks my every click and how long I stay at a particular page reading the reviews of a book. I feel like I am committing some sort of thought crime. Thus I shop at Amazon as little as possible. In a similar fashion, it bugs me when "we know better than you" software wants to critique everything that I want to write. I just want to write, I don't want to be criticized with every keystroke.

I feel like software reduces writing to grammatically correct communication but it leads to a very bland writing style and almost a soulless neutral expression as there is no emotion or passion. It would be like a forum dominated by algebra equations and complex math, useful but not much fun to read. Or sort of like reading IRS Instruction booklets. Sometimes, I even hate spell checkers.

Using AI to help with the forum would in my view take the humanity out of it and turn it into sort of a soulless recitation of facts and figures. We argue passionately here over a lot of stuff that doesn't matter a whole lot but that is part of the forum's charm.
If you have not read it, I highly recommend reading "The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values" by Brian Christian. Parts of the book are somewhat technical but it isn't essential to internalize all the technology as you go. The author teases out what you need to hear along the way. another interesting perspective is the E.M. Forster's novella "The Machine Stops" which was published around 1908, I think.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by JoeRetire »

"100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by nedsaid »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by JoeRetire »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
I don't think ChatGPT does cartoons. But here is their joke:

Q: Why couldn't the Boglehead get a date?
A: Because he was too passive!
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by nedsaid »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:56 am
nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
I don't think ChatGPT does cartoons. But here is their joke:

Q: Why couldn't the Boglehead get a date?
A: Because he was too passive!
Can the ChatGPT do a rimshot?
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by AerialWombat »

.........
Last edited by AerialWombat on Sun Dec 25, 2022 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Geologist »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Except it isn't 100 words.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by stan1 »

Just waiting for Vanguard to deploy GPT as their primary form of no-cost customer support. The beginnings have been there for awhile, we'll see where we are in 5 and 10 years. I expect Schwab and Fidelity customers will get it too at some point.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Parkinglotracer »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
This is Better than I would have thought it would have done! Impressive.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by JoeRetire »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:24 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:56 am
nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
I don't think ChatGPT does cartoons. But here is their joke:

Q: Why couldn't the Boglehead get a date?
A: Because he was too passive!
Can the ChatGPT do a rimshot?
Apparently. It answered: "Ba-dum tss!"
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by JoeRetire »

Geologist wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:40 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Except it isn't 100 words.
Inflation-adjusted.
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HockeyFan99
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by HockeyFan99 »

To clarify my original post:

1) I would not expect - now or soon - for GPT to be used or useful to provide personal investing advice. It’s not a robo-advisor, and it definitely cannot answer “can I retire now?” or “please help me clean up my portfolio!” posts.

2) I think its value is much more likely to be in Wiki-like posts, especially if trained specifically on the Bogleheads dataset. For instance, “what are the most common topics that do not appear in the Wiki?” or “summarize the common arguments for and against international allocation in a portfolio.”

3) Every AI regulation and ethical code I’m aware of stipulates a “human in the loop” element, and I think that would be absolutely essential here, too. A model can provide the starting point, not the final answer. But with appropriate transparency / citation, I think it would likely be a helpful contributor / resource. (Keep in mind anything you’re seeing / asking now is just of the generic GPT model, without training / configuration for Bogleheads.)

4) Like it or not, how long do you expect it will take before you are regularly interacting with a GPT or GPT-like model in your personal investing interactions? And how likely it is do you think that you’ll be aware of it? 🙈
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Mudpuppy »

AerialWombat wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:30 am I’ve been using ChatGPT to generate short summaries of my longer writings. It definitely sterilizes the content, removing my personality, but when a tight 200 words is what you want, it certainly delivers.
I refuse to give feedback to a colleague anymore on their reports to people outside of our group because they do this WITHOUT proofreading the results before passing it along and sometimes the summaries are just bizarre (I've heard the term "tortured phrases" applied to AI paraphrasing sources and that would be apt). We've had the conversation many times about how they can't blindly trust the output, and yet here we are.

In another example of AI being confidently incorrect, I recently led a virtual cybersecurity workshop and the electronic feedback form had the rather standard entry of asking them what key points they'd taken away from the workshop. I assume one person asked an AI to write the feedback form for them, because their response talked about key points in cybersecurity alright, but NONE of those points were covered in this particular workshop.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Dottie57 »

HockeyFan99 wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 2:38 pm To clarify my original post:

1) I would not expect - now or soon - for GPT to be used or useful to provide personal investing advice. It’s not a robo-advisor, and it definitely cannot answer “can I retire now?” or “please help me clean up my portfolio!” posts.

2) I think its value is much more likely to be in Wiki-like posts, especially if trained specifically on the Bogleheads dataset. For instance, “what are the most common topics that do not appear in the Wiki?” or “summarize the common arguments for and against international allocation in a portfolio.”

3) Every AI regulation and ethical code I’m aware of stipulates a “human in the loop” element, and I think that would be absolutely essential here, too. A model can provide the starting point, not the final answer. But with appropriate transparency / citation, I think it would likely be a helpful contributor / resource. (Keep in mind anything you’re seeing / asking now is just of the generic GPT model, without training / configuration for Bogleheads.)

4) Like it or not, how long do you expect it will take before you are regularly interacting with a GPT or GPT-like model in your personal investing interactions? And how likely it is do you think that you’ll be aware of it? 🙈
I think the value of this site is the humanity of the members found here with their individual knowledge and insights. AI is , well, artificial. As for the wiki, it is a great resource. I don’t see a need for AI which I expect would be more complicated to change.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
I would suggest this: fewer words, tighter, with a few clarifications - but, IMO, still not there:

Bogleheads is a community of investors who follow the principles of John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group and creator of the world's first retail index mutual fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low costs, diversification, and long-term perspective. The community discusses investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetings and national conferences. Bogleheads believe investors should save and invest consistently over time and that most are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds that try to beat, or time, the market. Bogleheads also emphasize evidence-based investing and helping others achieve financial success.

Edit: to bring word count to 99, per Google. Note: the original rewrite also clarifies by adding words from the BH wiki.
Last edited by Fallible on Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

HockeyFan99 wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 2:38 pm To clarify my original post:

1) I would not expect - now or soon - for GPT to be used or useful to provide personal investing advice. It’s not a robo-advisor, and it definitely cannot answer “can I retire now?” or “please help me clean up my portfolio!” posts.

2) I think its value is much more likely to be in Wiki-like posts, especially if trained specifically on the Bogleheads dataset. For instance, “what are the most common topics that do not appear in the Wiki?” or “summarize the common arguments for and against international allocation in a portfolio.”


3) Every AI regulation and ethical code I’m aware of stipulates a “human in the loop” element, and I think that would be absolutely essential here, too. A model can provide the starting point, not the final answer. But with appropriate transparency / citation, I think it would likely be a helpful contributor / resource. (Keep in mind anything you’re seeing / asking now is just of the generic GPT model, without training / configuration for Bogleheads.)

4) Like it or not, how long do you expect it will take before you are regularly interacting with a GPT or GPT-like model in your personal investing interactions? And how likely it is do you think that you’ll be aware of it? 🙈
From what I have read and seen thus far, I agree with Nos.1 and 2 as probably being realistic at this point. No. 4, however, plus the icon, seems less a question than a suggestion that one is in denial or ignorant about GPT or AI in general. It's a safe bet that Bogleheads, including the non-techs (but not anti-techs) like me have been reading about it for years and wondering how close it's getting to wherever it's ultimately going and how and how well, not to mention the why of it all at which point(s) we'll deal with it.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by HockeyFan99 »

Fallible wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:42 pm
HockeyFan99 wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 2:38 pm To clarify my original post:

1) I would not expect - now or soon - for GPT to be used or useful to provide personal investing advice. It’s not a robo-advisor, and it definitely cannot answer “can I retire now?” or “please help me clean up my portfolio!” posts.

2) I think its value is much more likely to be in Wiki-like posts, especially if trained specifically on the Bogleheads dataset. For instance, “what are the most common topics that do not appear in the Wiki?” or “summarize the common arguments for and against international allocation in a portfolio.”


3) Every AI regulation and ethical code I’m aware of stipulates a “human in the loop” element, and I think that would be absolutely essential here, too. A model can provide the starting point, not the final answer. But with appropriate transparency / citation, I think it would likely be a helpful contributor / resource. (Keep in mind anything you’re seeing / asking now is just of the generic GPT model, without training / configuration for Bogleheads.)

4) Like it or not, how long do you expect it will take before you are regularly interacting with a GPT or GPT-like model in your personal investing interactions? And how likely it is do you think that you’ll be aware of it? 🙈
From what I have read and seen thus far, I agree with Nos.1 and 2 as probably being realistic at this point. No. 4, however, plus the icon, seems less a question than a suggestion that one is in denial or ignorant about GPT or AI in general. It's a safe bet that Bogleheads, including the non-techs (but not anti-techs) like me have been reading about it for years and wondering how close it's getting to wherever it's ultimately going and how and how well, not to mention the why of it all at which point(s) we'll deal with it.
Wasn’t meant to be a suggestion that Bogleheads are ignorant - I think that’s far from the case. But I do think AI like this will start to infiltrate many aspects of our lives, without always being visible / transparent. That’s going to happen, in my view, sooner and more deeply than I think many (not at all specific to Bogleheads) are prepared for.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by LadyGeek »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

...

Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups.

...
This is an example of what Mudpuppy calls "confidently incorrect". Nothing we do ever mentions "meetups". It's all local and virtual chapters and is well documented in the forum, wiki, and blog. ChatGPT is flat out wrong.

Not to mention to going over the 100 word limit by quite a bit (137 words counted). That's far too long for an algorithm result and should be flagged as an error.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by JoeRetire »

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:40 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

...

Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups.

...
This is an example of what Mudpuppy calls "confidently incorrect". Nothing we do ever mentions "meetups". It's all local and virtual chapters and is well documented in the forum, wiki, and blog. ChatGPT is flat out wrong.

Not to mention to going over the 100 word limit by quite a bit (137 words counted). That's far too long for an algorithm result and should be flagged as an error.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:40 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

...

Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups.

...
This is an example of what Mudpuppy calls "confidently incorrect". Nothing we do ever mentions "meetups". It's all local and virtual chapters and is well documented in the forum, wiki, and blog. ChatGPT is flat out wrong.

Not to mention to going over the 100 word limit by quite a bit (137 words counted). That's far too long for an algorithm result and should be flagged as an error.
I agree about "meetups" and guessed that it might be a deliberate and unwise attempt by ChatGPT to sound informal, i.e., human, i.e., a machine's attempt to be more acceptable to humans. Does anyone know how "meetups" came to be used? In my rewrite upthread of the GPT version, I changed "meetups" to local meetings and added national conferences and also tried to eliminate most wordiness (about 40 words). In its favor: punctuation, grammar, and spelling.

I do think ChatGPT will get better, but how much better and when? From what I've seen lately, it can write quite well, no doubt better than too many humans.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by harikaried »

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:40 amNothing we do ever mentions "meetups". It's all local and virtual chapters and is well documented in the forum, wiki, and blog.
It probably tried to be succinct in meeting the 100 word requirement. When I previously asked it to write a play with 3 acts, it wrote about the community in the third act not using the word "meetups:"
ChatGPT wrote:Act III: The Boglehead Community

(The stage is set in the same living room as Acts I and II, but the Boglehead is now sitting at a desk with a computer and some books. He is reading a book when the curtain opens.)

Boglehead: (to the audience) In the previous acts, we discussed the principles of index fund investing and the importance of diversification. But there is one more aspect of the Boglehead philosophy that I want to talk about: the Boglehead community.

(Enter a middle-aged woman, dressed in business attire and carrying a briefcase.)

Middle-Aged Woman: (to the Boglehead) Hi, I'm a financial planner and I heard that you are a Boglehead. Can you tell me more about this community?

Boglehead: (smiling) Of course. The Boglehead community is a group of like-minded individuals who are interested in following the principles of low-cost index fund investing. We come from all walks of life and have different levels of investing experience, but we share a common goal of maximizing our investment returns while minimizing our risks and costs.

Middle-Aged Woman: (impressed) That sounds very interesting. How do you stay connected and share your knowledge and experiences with each other?

Boglehead: (nodding) We have a few different ways of staying connected. First, we have an online forum where we discuss a wide range of investing topics and share our experiences and insights. We also have local chapters in many cities where we meet in person to discuss investing and learn from each other. Finally, we have an annual conference where we come together to learn from experts and share our experiences.

Middle-Aged Woman: (interested) That sounds like a great way to learn and grow as an investor. Do you have any other resources or tools that you use to help you with your investing?

Boglehead: (smiling) Yes, we have a few different resources that we use to help us with our investing. For example, we have a set of investing principles that we follow, which are based on the teachings of John Bogle. We also have a set of recommended reading materials, which include books and articles by Bogle and other experts. Finally, we have a set of investing tools and calculators that we use to help us with things like asset allocation and retirement planning.

Middle-Aged Woman: (impressed) That's really impressive. It sounds like the Boglehead community is a great resource for investors of all levels.

Boglehead: (smiling) Thank you. We believe that anyone can become a successful investor by following the principles of low-cost index fund investing and by learning from the experiences of others. The Boglehead community is a great place to learn, share, and grow as an investor.

(The middle-aged woman thanks the Boglehead and exits. The Boglehead turns back to his computer and books. The curtain closes.)

End of Act III.
The first 2 acts focused on introducing the Boglehead's Philosophy and Power of Diversification viewtopic.php?p=7007809#p7007809
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by GTBuzz »

I asked ChatGPT to "Write a poem about Bogleheads." This was spit out in under 10 seconds:

"Bogleheads, wise and true,
Steadfast in their investment pursuit.
They follow the path of reason and proof,
Avoiding the sirens' alluring hoot.

They seek out low-cost index funds,
Diversifying their portfolio with care.
They shun the fads and trendy trends,
Preferring a strategy tried and fair.

They listen to their inner voice,
Trusting their own research and might.
They don't chase after every choice,
But instead choose what they know is right.

Bogleheads, a community strong,
Sharing their knowledge and their wealth.
They stand tall and carry on,
Guided by their principles and stealth.

So here's to the bogleheads we know,
May they continue to grow and thrive.
For they are the ones who truly show,
The path to a financially sound life."

Pretty good!
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by nedsaid »

It has been known for a long time on this forum that Nedsaid is a chatbot. :wink:

Or was that chatterbox?
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by slowandsteadywins »

GTBuzz wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 12:10 pm I asked ChatGPT to "Write a poem about Bogleheads." This was spit out in under 10 seconds:

"Bogleheads, wise and true,
Steadfast in their investment pursuit.
They follow the path of reason and proof,
Avoiding the sirens' alluring hoot.

They seek out low-cost index funds,
Diversifying their portfolio with care.
They shun the fads and trendy trends,
Preferring a strategy tried and fair.

They listen to their inner voice,
Trusting their own research and might.
They don't chase after every choice,
But instead choose what they know is right.

Bogleheads, a community strong,
Sharing their knowledge and their wealth.
They stand tall and carry on,
Guided by their principles and stealth.

So here's to the bogleheads we know,
May they continue to grow and thrive.
For they are the ones who truly show,
The path to a financially sound life."

Pretty good!
Awesome!
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by RubyTuesday »

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:40 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

...

Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups.

...
This is an example of what Mudpuppy calls "confidently incorrect". Nothing we do ever mentions "meetups". It's all local and virtual chapters and is well documented in the forum, wiki, and blog. ChatGPT is flat out wrong.

Not to mention to going over the 100 word limit by quite a bit (137 words counted). That's far too long for an algorithm result and should be flagged as an error.
I quickly and not very carefully counted the words excluding meaningless articles and prepositions (e.g. “the” “of”) and counted 100.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by LadyGeek »

I counted the words by copy-n-pasting them into Microsoft Word and using the built-in word / character counter. Words - 137. There are no exclusions to interpret what is a "meaningless" word.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

RubyTuesday wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:40 am
LadyGeek wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:40 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

...

Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups.

...
This is an example of what Mudpuppy calls "confidently incorrect". Nothing we do ever mentions "meetups". It's all local and virtual chapters and is well documented in the forum, wiki, and blog. ChatGPT is flat out wrong.

Not to mention to going over the 100 word limit by quite a bit (137 words counted). That's far too long for an algorithm result and should be flagged as an error.
I quickly and not very carefully counted the words excluding meaningless articles and prepositions (e.g. “the” “of”) and counted 100.
:sharebeer
I realize the significance of word count here, but there would be no need to count words if GPT-3 had written more succinctly and without the need for clarification. My rewrite upthread cut it to 99 words despite having to add several words from the BH wiki :happy to clarify the bot.

Overall, I would look to GPT-3 not to try to mimic BH content, but beyond BH to hope it might write better, much, much better than most humans, or at least with the accuracy, clarity, skepticism, humor, understanding, imagination, and creativity of the better human writers.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by billaster »

ChatGPT seems to be about on par with the typical human posting on the internet. Do a google search, spend a couple of minutes on wikipedia and then confidently pontificate as an expert on a subject they really know almost nothing about.

In fact ChatGPT seems to do a better job than most humans at filtering out blatant disinformation.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by German Expat »

GPT3 can be wrong and give you answers that look correct. There are plenty of funny examples, e.g. what weighs more, 1kg of air or metal?

Q: what weights more? 1kg of air or 1kg of gold?
A: 1kg of gold weighs more than 1kg of air.

and its pretty stubborn :D

Q: is 1kg of gold not the same weight as 1kg of air?
A: No, 1kg of gold is substantially heavier than 1kg of air.

It can help write better answers to questions though, I tried one post here as the question:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=393567&newpost=7032 ... ead#unread

and the answer was:

"The short answer is that it depends. It really comes down to a risk/reward evaluation. On one hand, if you keep him on your policy, you will be exposed to the risk of being sued, having your premiums increase, or having to cover damages if he is at fault in an accident. On the other hand, he may not have the same coverage options and discounts that you have, which could result in him paying more than necessary for his own policy.

Ultimately, the decision is up to you and your son. Weigh the pros and cons and make the decision that makes the most sense for your particular situation. As far as building credit and history, keeping him on your policy should not have an effect. He should still be able to build his credit with other activities such as paying his bills on time, etc."

The training data was from 2021 and earlier so any information can easily be outdated. Here is an example:

Q:what are the IRA limits for 2023?
A: The IRA contribution limits for 2023 are $6,000 for those under age 50, and $7,000 for those age 50 or older.

Follow up:
Q:shouldn't have this changed with high inflation?
A:No, the IRA contribution limits are set by the IRS and are not affected by inflation. However, the IRS does review them regularly and they may be adjusted in the future.

I would never use it for anything important without verifying the information.

At work we also start testing Github copilot (for software development) and while it saves a lot of time there are studies out showing it can create more buggy / less secure code.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/12/21/ ... _bad_code/

It can save a lot of time though but you still need to know what you are doing, actually it will support better developers a lot more because they can spend less time on more mundane tasks. Same for bogleheads answers, if you know a topic really well it could support you to write your answer faster and more concise / better English. I would not trust a GPT3 answer out of the box.

Teachers and professors start to get worried though because the usual tools to figure out plagiarism usually don't work (yet?, there are some efforts to look into watermarking).
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by HockeyFan99 »

German Expat wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 8:35 pm It can save a lot of time though but you still need to know what you are doing, actually it will support better developers a lot more because they can spend less time on more mundane tasks. Same for bogleheads answers, if you know a topic really well it could support you to write your answer faster and more concise / better English. I would not trust a GPT3 answer out of the box.
This, though I’m slightly more optimistic about how it could be used if it was trained on / by Bogleheads, given how active and expert this community is.

I’ll be interested in revisiting this thread 1 / 3 / 5 years hence to see how attitudes have changed.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Taylor Larimore »

LiveSimple wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:26 am Response from ChatGPT

To summarize, Taylor Larimore's contributions to the Boglehead philosophy include:

Emphasizing the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in investing, and not getting too caught up in short-term market fluctuations.
Advising investors to be patient and disciplined, and to resist the temptation to try to "time the market" or make impulsive decisions based on short-term events.
Emphasizing the importance of diversification in investing, and advising investors to build a well-diversified portfolio that reflects their goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, and to periodically rebalance to maintain their desired asset allocation.
Advising investors to keep their costs low by using low-cost index funds and avoiding unnecessary expenses, such as high fees and commissions.
In addition to these principles, Larimore has also written extensively about the benefits of index fund investing and the importance of keeping investment costs low. He has also provided practical guidance to investors on how to build and manage a long-term investment portfolio.
ChatGPT:

I appreciate your post.

Happy New Year to all!

Taylor
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

GTBuzz wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 12:10 pm I asked ChatGPT to "Write a poem about Bogleheads." This was spit out in under 10 seconds:

"Bogleheads, wise and true,
Steadfast in their investment pursuit.
They follow the path of reason and proof,
Avoiding the sirens' alluring hoot.

They seek out low-cost index funds,
Diversifying their portfolio with care.
They shun the fads and trendy trends,
Preferring a strategy tried and fair.

They listen to their inner voice,
Trusting their own research and might.
They don't chase after every choice,
But instead choose what they know is right.

Bogleheads, a community strong,
Sharing their knowledge and their wealth.
They stand tall and carry on,
Guided by their principles and stealth.

So here's to the bogleheads we know,
May they continue to grow and thrive.
For they are the ones who truly show,
The path to a financially sound life."

Pretty good!
that's pretty good. can you get it to do a boglehead haiku next?
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by German Expat »

Write a haiku about bogleheads:

Financial wisdom blooms,
Bogleheads gather to share,
Investing truths abound.

I still find it more of a parlor trick for a lot of real world problems. We brainstormed a bit about finding any application at work but up to now didn't come up with anything useful.

It works well for doing essays, poems, Marketing stories (e.g. why are our products better than the competitors) but it's still hard to see anything that helps the bottom line of a company.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by abuss368 »

LiveSimple wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:26 am Response from ChatGPT

To summarize, Taylor Larimore's contributions to the Boglehead philosophy include:

Emphasizing the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in investing, and not getting too caught up in short-term market fluctuations.
Advising investors to be patient and disciplined, and to resist the temptation to try to "time the market" or make impulsive decisions based on short-term events.
Emphasizing the importance of diversification in investing, and advising investors to build a well-diversified portfolio that reflects their goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, and to periodically rebalance to maintain their desired asset allocation.
Advising investors to keep their costs low by using low-cost index funds and avoiding unnecessary expenses, such as high fees and commissions.
In addition to these principles, Larimore has also written extensively about the benefits of index fund investing and the importance of keeping investment costs low. He has also provided practical guidance to investors on how to build and manage a long-term investment portfolio.
Hi LiveSimple -

I like you post and agree!

The only issue is there is not enough forum space to list all of Taylor’s contributions and knowledge share to Bogleheads!

We are a fortunate bunch to learn from a gem like Taylor!

Happy New Year!
Tony
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

With the happy exception of Taylor Larimore's invaluable contributions to the Bogleheads, :happy I'm actually beginning to feel sorry for GPT-3, at least at this point of its development. I think the chatbot may be better than it's often asked to be, sort of like Marvin the incredibly brilliant robot who, in Douglas Adams's The Ultimate Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, becomes deeply depressed because he can do almost anything, but is asked to do so little. Of course, GPT can't feel emotion, at least as far as we know now. :?:
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by slowandsteadywins »

I enjoy using GPT-3 to summarize articles, or make writing more succinct.

1. Ghostreader AI with https://read.readwise.io
2. ChatGPT command: "Smart Brevity: insert text here to make succinct"
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

slowandsteadywins wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:46 pm I enjoy using GPT-3 to summarize articles, or make writing more succinct.

1. Ghostreader AI with https://read.readwise.io
2. ChatGPT command: "Smart Brevity: insert text here to make succinct"
Using a paragraph or two from the BH principles, could you provide an example of how GPT would make it more succinct? Thanks. .
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by slowandsteadywins »

Fallible wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:36 pm
slowandsteadywins wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:46 pm I enjoy using GPT-3 to summarize articles, or make writing more succinct.
1. Ghostreader AI with https://read.readwise.io
2. ChatGPT command: "Smart Brevity: insert text here to make succinct"
Using a paragraph or two from the BH principles, could you provide an example of how GPT would make it more succinct? Thanks. .
Sure.

Random article in BH Wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Portfol ... statistics

ChatGPT: command was "Summarize: [and I copy/pasted the content of the above wiki article here]"

ChatGPT response below:

Portfolio returns are expected to follow a normal distribution. Deviations from this pattern are a form of investment risk, described below.[1]

A distribution plot is a graphical representation of how values are distributed across a range of returns, typically for fund performance. A normal distribution is a bell-shaped curve that is often used in statistical analysis to predict future returns, with most values falling near the center of the plot. However, "fat tails" or extreme values that fall outside of the normal distribution can occur and can impact risk and opportunity. These tails can be characterized as left-tailed risks or right-tailed opportunities. The shape of a distribution can be described using four terms: normal distribution, left side, right side, and fat tail. The four moments of a distribution include the expected return, standard deviation (volatility), skewness, and kurtosis. Log-normal distributions, which consider changes relative to other changes, are often used to model annual returns instead of normal distributions.
"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence; Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent." | -Calvin Coolidge
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