For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Can you give a few specific examples or the one you are particularly interested in ?
- SmileyFace
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
I read the posts carefully and look at the arguments/back-up-data. If someone says "YES" or "NO" without providing details, evidence, data, etc. backing up their answer then I disregard. If it isn't clear to me I ask questions - even if I think they are dumb questions (I started here with questions I thought were dumb - thus my username).
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
You need to understand the reasoning behind the Yes and Nos and how people came to their answer. And a lot of stuff is just opinions....
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Human beings are not all the same. You are not the same as anyone else.
Over many years, you will probably figure out which opinions you like to follow, which opinions you do not like to follow, and even create some of your own original thinking. In the meantime, you may wish to take some tests to see how you do when compared to others on some testable metrics.
Something that might interest folks: http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11808/jdm11808.pdf and an example of a result:
Over many years, you will probably figure out which opinions you like to follow, which opinions you do not like to follow, and even create some of your own original thinking. In the meantime, you may wish to take some tests to see how you do when compared to others on some testable metrics.
Something that might interest folks: http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11808/jdm11808.pdf and an example of a result:
Last edited by livesoft on Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
I think the diverse/differing opinions are great. People have a question, review feedback that may shed new light on the situation and then it is up to those who "ask" the questions to combine what they know with what others say (use/discard) and move forward with a decision.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Investment Theory falls under Economics, so a Social Science.
There are no fundamental flaws of human nature as their is in the hard sciences. Data is rarely clear and unambiguous. Human society evolves, so relationships evolves.
There are no fundamental flaws of human nature as their is in the hard sciences. Data is rarely clear and unambiguous. Human society evolves, so relationships evolves.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
The primary issue is to separate opinions and preference from information.
I think viewing any discussion as positions being argued on evidence is a mistake. The alternative is to view discussions as information about facts and as lessons in how to usefully think about the question. There can be legitimately different ways to think about something and that is ok. There can also be a bunch of not helpful or even wrong ways to think about something. But, I am biased in favor of science and against resolving issues by adversary debate.
What people actually do in their own case is a matter of preference and judgement based on facts and clear thinking. The reader has to sort that out for himself. The mantra that there are many roads to Dublin should always be kept in mind. Most discussions about investing are underspecified, meaning the requirements are outnumbered by the options and do not result in unique correct solutions.
I think viewing any discussion as positions being argued on evidence is a mistake. The alternative is to view discussions as information about facts and as lessons in how to usefully think about the question. There can be legitimately different ways to think about something and that is ok. There can also be a bunch of not helpful or even wrong ways to think about something. But, I am biased in favor of science and against resolving issues by adversary debate.
What people actually do in their own case is a matter of preference and judgement based on facts and clear thinking. The reader has to sort that out for himself. The mantra that there are many roads to Dublin should always be kept in mind. Most discussions about investing are underspecified, meaning the requirements are outnumbered by the options and do not result in unique correct solutions.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Howdy
I have leaned a lot here. The variety and depth of knowledge is impressive.
Just off the top of my head - Valuethinker and Nisiprius on any subject, and Livesoft on tax avoidance and RBDS, also his wide-ranging arsenal of well-meaning and entertaining snark. He is, however, totally unsound on oatmeal.
Good luck to all
W B
I have leaned a lot here. The variety and depth of knowledge is impressive.
Just off the top of my head - Valuethinker and Nisiprius on any subject, and Livesoft on tax avoidance and RBDS, also his wide-ranging arsenal of well-meaning and entertaining snark. He is, however, totally unsound on oatmeal.
Good luck to all
W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
The answer to all but the very simplest questions is almost always "it depends." Does going from an expense ratio of 1.5% down to 0.10% make a difference? Yes, absolutely. How about going from 0.02 to 0.01? No, just no. But there are always people who want one-size-fits-all answers.
My advice is to pay attention to the reasons presented and decide how they apply to your situation.
My advice is to pay attention to the reasons presented and decide how they apply to your situation.
- McGilicutty
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
As a newish poster, it's probably not a bad idea to just go with the three-fund portfolio. Then, as you get more experience, you can decide if you want to tilt, factor, go on an excellent adventure, buy gold, buy individual stocks, or whatever.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
I have learned and still am learning an incredible amount of information everyday here. It amazes me the in-depth knowledge so many people freely give.
One thing I have noticed though is it’s a pretty close minded group.(I lump myself in there as well) If the post doesn’t contain tickers like vti,voo,vxus, bnd etc, it’s usually said to be a lousy investment. I enjoy reading the RE topics, but since it’s not BH approved, not much can really come of it.
One thing I have noticed though is it’s a pretty close minded group.(I lump myself in there as well) If the post doesn’t contain tickers like vti,voo,vxus, bnd etc, it’s usually said to be a lousy investment. I enjoy reading the RE topics, but since it’s not BH approved, not much can really come of it.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Or coming from the other direction, after losing money day trading and holding individual stocks and gold and silver and working with an advisor and tilting, one gains experience and realizes that the 3 fund portfolio works better than all that nonsense.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
This thread is now in the Forum Issues and Administration forum (managing member advice).
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
There are a lot of very risk averse people here. Also a lot of people who want to be helpful but at times only know a little and not a lot and can be very wrong.
One of the things I've done in life is to ask a lot of questions. Many times I think I know the answer but sometimes someone (sometimes least expected) says something that is I hadn't considered before. In person I may ask people questions where I don't care much about the answer but I am more interested in their reaction to my question, that can tell you a lot.
Like anything in life, it is your life and you need to figure out what you want to do and who you should listen to more or less. And never put all your eggs in one basket, sometimes sure things aren't so sure, whether investing or in other fields.
One of the things I've done in life is to ask a lot of questions. Many times I think I know the answer but sometimes someone (sometimes least expected) says something that is I hadn't considered before. In person I may ask people questions where I don't care much about the answer but I am more interested in their reaction to my question, that can tell you a lot.
Like anything in life, it is your life and you need to figure out what you want to do and who you should listen to more or less. And never put all your eggs in one basket, sometimes sure things aren't so sure, whether investing or in other fields.
----------------------------- |
If you think something is important and it doesn't involve the health of someone, think again. Life goes too fast, enjoy it and be nice.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
When I first started reading Bogleheads I spent more time reading the wiki pages than the forum. After that, it tends to be easier to predict the responses & know which side you lean towards.
Often, there are multiple good approaches to a problem.
Often, there are multiple good approaches to a problem.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Well, you know the rules on forum responses in any sort of forum:
Out of 20 responses, 5 will be yes, 5 will be no, and the other 10 will be completely unrelated to the question asked.
Out of 20 responses, 5 will be yes, 5 will be no, and the other 10 will be completely unrelated to the question asked.
- Sandtrap
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
+1dbr wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:07 pm The primary issue is to separate opinions and preference from information.
I think viewing any discussion as positions being argued on evidence is a mistake. The alternative is to view discussions as information about facts and as lessons in how to usefully think about the question. There can be legitimately different ways to think about something and that is ok. There can also be a bunch of not helpful or even wrong ways to think about something. But, I am biased in favor of science and against resolving issues by adversary debate.
What people actually do in their own case is a matter of preference and judgement based on facts and clear thinking. The reader has to sort that out for himself. The mantra that there are many roads to Dublin should always be kept in mind. Most discussions about investing are underspecified, meaning the requirements are outnumbered by the options and do not result in unique correct solutions.
IMHO: The best I can hope for is to provide a broad viewpoint or overview of things and perhaps make a list of considerations, often in question form, that an OP may not have considered, or might broaden and deepen the perspective with a very long view.
Hopefully, that will be actionable and useful, or at least entertaining. . . .
j
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
1. years ago in a social psychology class I learned that there are more variations within groups than between groups. In that class this theory was attributed to Walter Mischel. The idea stuck with me because it seems intuitively right. Are all men (one group) the same? No. Some are tall. Some are short. Some are thin. Some are fat. Some have blond hair. Some have brown hair. And so on. You can do this with any group.
By the same metric, between groups there should be more similarities than differences. Take men and women (two different groups). There are some tall men and women. There are some short men and women. And so on.
And yes, this also applies to political groups as well if you think about it deeply enough.
So the question is knowing this, would you expect the bogleheads to be a borg, hivemind, etc or have disparate ideas?
2. I've also learned that many people don't like to hold contradictory ideas in their mind at the same time. People tend to think in black and white terms. But the world rarely operates that way. This makes some uncomfortable. But sometimes growth comes out of conflict.
Early on in my bogleheading I read an interesting post from someone who wrote about having more money than they needed for the rest of his/her life. The question was what to do? As you can imagine some said, "If you don't have a need to take risk, why take risk?" (if you've won the game stop playing). While others said, "If this is money that will be for someone else (because it's more than YOU need) then you can afford to take risk because the outcome doesn't matter to you (but might to the others the money's left to).
I found this type of thinking exhilarating, but I imagine there were some who found it downright frustrating. Some people want to be told what to do or think. But sometimes there are no right answers. Or rather, sometimes there are "many roads to Dublin". This is what puts the "personal" in personal finance.
By the same metric, between groups there should be more similarities than differences. Take men and women (two different groups). There are some tall men and women. There are some short men and women. And so on.
And yes, this also applies to political groups as well if you think about it deeply enough.
So the question is knowing this, would you expect the bogleheads to be a borg, hivemind, etc or have disparate ideas?
2. I've also learned that many people don't like to hold contradictory ideas in their mind at the same time. People tend to think in black and white terms. But the world rarely operates that way. This makes some uncomfortable. But sometimes growth comes out of conflict.
Early on in my bogleheading I read an interesting post from someone who wrote about having more money than they needed for the rest of his/her life. The question was what to do? As you can imagine some said, "If you don't have a need to take risk, why take risk?" (if you've won the game stop playing). While others said, "If this is money that will be for someone else (because it's more than YOU need) then you can afford to take risk because the outcome doesn't matter to you (but might to the others the money's left to).
I found this type of thinking exhilarating, but I imagine there were some who found it downright frustrating. Some people want to be told what to do or think. But sometimes there are no right answers. Or rather, sometimes there are "many roads to Dublin". This is what puts the "personal" in personal finance.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Keep reading the forum and you will eventually develop a set of investing beliefs.Boulous wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
Maybe start reading the Boglehead authors if you haven't already started. Rick Ferri, Larry Swedroe, Taylor Larimore, and William Bernstein are my favorites authors. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_ ... nd_reviews
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
There are many ways to invest and we have a good percentage of members on the forum who don't invest by Boglehead standards. I don't even know why some of them hang around, but low cost is hard to argue with. My advise is stick with documented Boglehead principles like the 3 fund portfolio. Read the Wiki, avoid any complex strategies.Boulous wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
There are lots of good opinions on this thread, but they don’t all agree, so you must be back to asking which one is the one to follow. And on it goes.
My opinion is that your question goes well beyond the forum and to life itself. To discern well the ghastly and growing amounts of information out there, one must know oneself, what is right for oneself, what information pertains and is useful and valuable. In life and on the forum, one should expect a variety of opinions reflecting individual differences, and then be able to judge which is the "right" one (or ones) to follow. And if you don't see anything worth following, rephrasing the question may help.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
I love that stuff too. As time has gone on I think I ask more and more frequently of posters "What do you want?" rather than suggest "You should . . ."arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:51 pm
Early on in my bogleheading I read an interesting post from someone who wrote about having more money than they needed for the rest of his/her life. The question was what to do? As you can imagine some said, "If you don't have a need to take risk, why take risk?" (if you've won the game stop playing). While others said, "If this is money that will be for someone else (because it's more than YOU need) then you can afford to take risk because the outcome doesn't matter to you (but might to the others the money's left to).
I found this type of thinking exhilarating, but I imagine there were some who found it downright frustrating. Some people want to be told what to do or think. But sometimes there are no right answers. Or rather, sometimes there are "many roads to Dublin". This is what puts the "personal" in personal finance.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Ask whether you should market time
or whether you should pick individual stocks
or use a high fee advisor
or invest in a hedge fund
or leverage 15x
Then you will get lots of the same answers.
If you ask whether to pay off the house or invest,
you will get diverse answers.
or whether you should pick individual stocks
or use a high fee advisor
or invest in a hedge fund
or leverage 15x
Then you will get lots of the same answers.
If you ask whether to pay off the house or invest,
you will get diverse answers.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
This is true, and what I often do is click on the person's name to read some of their other posts (I just clicked on rich126's out of curiosity ). This gives me a sense of their depth in a particular subject. It has led me to some fantastic threads as a side bonus. The other thing is to ask a question: if they get defensive rather than giving a clear reply, that is a hint.
As others have stated, this forum is also an incredible resource. There is the depth of expertise: someone asks about property and they get a reply from thoughtful realtors, or about economics and get replies from economists. And there is the variety of perspectives: I could never look at a problem from so many angles in isolation.
Just keep going until you understand the various arguments and perspectives, and the opinions will form themselves.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa...
I think this is a feature of a public forum, not a bug. You can just listen to the symphony of different opinions. Your own opinion will form over time. Don't take everything too seriously. Ok. It is money. Serious thing. But if you manage to put all these opinions at a little distance, it isn't as unsettling and disturbing any more.
That's what they like to say here: nobody knows nothing. some know even more nothing than others.
I think this is a feature of a public forum, not a bug. You can just listen to the symphony of different opinions. Your own opinion will form over time. Don't take everything too seriously. Ok. It is money. Serious thing. But if you manage to put all these opinions at a little distance, it isn't as unsettling and disturbing any more.
That's what they like to say here: nobody knows nothing. some know even more nothing than others.
The information provided is intended to be entertaining. It is not to be construed as professional advice. Use it at your own risk.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Maybe not even for thoseMathWizard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:13 pm Ask whether you should market time
or whether you should pick individual stocks
or use a high fee advisor
or invest in a hedge fund
or leverage 15x
Then you will get lots of the same answers.
If you ask whether to pay off the house or invest,
you will get diverse answers.
Try I live in a HCOL area and want to buy my dream house. I have a huge EF and have 2 income secure jobs with pensions. Can I buy that house with a low down payment (15 x leverage)? My monthly costs will be less than my rent. I will not be moving due to family etc etc
I am pretty sure the advise would be all over the place including it is or is not really leverage.
G.E. Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful."
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
In time you will realize that it is fruitless to look for "the answer" because there frequently isn't one. What you should be looking for is "an answer" that suits your needs.
Someone has a signature line about that.
Also, with time, you will see what type of information is needed to make even halfway reliable suggestions about a poster's question. Don't put a lot of faith in answers given without the benefit of inadequate information.
Spend enough time here and you will see that some things are just opinion and some things are just personal preference...as mentioned by dbr above.
Understanding a lot of these concepts does take time. I guess the recurrent theme here is don't be in a rush. In the meantime, just keep saving money and paying off debt because those are very rarely the wrong thing to do.
Link to Asking Portfolio Questions
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Contrary information is a big challenge to the investor. Keep in mind that news media is relentlessly negative, if it bleeds it leads. I can almost guarantee that with any investment decision you make that within a few days you will see an article telling you that what you just did was 100% wrong. Investors need some knowledge of market and economic history, one needs the historical perspective as events unfold. You also need strong beliefs backed by facts and history so that you don't get swayed with every compelling article or book. Also keep in mind there are several macro investment approaches that work well over time and a bunch of investment approaches that don't.Boulous wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Unfortunately, not everyone agrees if and when "the science is settled."
Big example: "Is Total Market Diversification Meant to Be Cap Weighted?"
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
I generally take a glance at the poster's post count/join date, especially if the answer has potential for bias. I have a naturally suspicious mind, so I sometimes wonder if a poster could potentially benefit from a certain answer that promotes a product/service.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
For questions on which there is general agreement, the answer is probably in the wiki.
Of course, people don't like to be told to look in the wiki, when they clearly haven't. For folkson the early internet,"Look at the wiki" is the newer version of less gentle RTFM.
Of course, people don't like to be told to look in the wiki, when they clearly haven't. For folkson the early internet,"Look at the wiki" is the newer version of less gentle RTFM.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Diversity of expert opinion exists in any controversial area of study or endeavor. Everybody looks at the same data from a personal viewpoint and so people come to different conclusions. Data alone are not useful information. Data is sometimes conflicting, subject to measurement error, or biased in its collection, rendering its accuracy open to question. People may disagree as to what is good data. Good data properly interpreted is a good basis for effective action, but people may sincerely differ in their interpretations of the same good data and disagree over what may be a proper interpretation. When lurking we get to observe the thinking and perception of a variety of people. This is why if it's science it is never settled though it may seem so for a time. For centuries Ptolemaic physics was the generally accepted physics. the Bible and the writings of the ancients were generally accepted as the only reliable storehouses of human knowledge. Then Newton came along and mechanics was settled. And he showed that new scientific knowledge can be created beyond what lie in the Bible and ancient writings. Then Bohr and Einstein and their friends arrived on the scene and quantum physics supplanted Newton. Now we have "string theory" which may or may not prove out. Of course some will say it has already proven out based on the data. Others will say the data isn't so great.
Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
As has been pointed out, there's a bit of a topic selection bias, because the most frequently discussed topics are ones that are controversial and don't have a clear right answer, like the classic "pay off loans or invest". And, even on better-settled issues, there is a small subset of forum participants who can be contrarian and like to stir the pot (in my experience), so sometimes there seems to be more disagreement than there actually is. Despite all that, there are plenty of topics where the forum gives clear and correct answers (eg. do I really pay 0% capital gains tax on a $250k long-term gain if I'm in the 0% bracket?). They just tend to get less attention.Boulous wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous