New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

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minimalistmarc
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New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am

I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies.

Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?

UpperNwGuy
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by UpperNwGuy » Thu May 14, 2020 8:25 am

The forum could be called "Non-Boglehead Investing Strategies." The hard part for the moderators would be to determine which threads to move there because some of the veterans of this forum use a lot of non-boglehead strategies.

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JoMoney
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by JoMoney » Thu May 14, 2020 8:29 am

I think that forum exists over at reddit, morningstar, yahoo finance comments, and literally hundreds of other message boards.

FWIW, you don't have to comment or read threads that annoy you.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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minimalistmarc
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu May 14, 2020 8:34 am

JoMoney wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:29 am
I think that forum exists over at reddit, morningstar, yahoo finance comments, and literally hundreds of other message boards.

FWIW, you don't have to comment or read threads that annoy you.
Sure, but often they jump into existing long standing threads as well

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by carolinaman » Thu May 14, 2020 8:37 am

JoMoney wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:29 am

FWIW, you don't have to comment or read threads that annoy you.
I agree. I do not think we want "groupthink" by everyone on our forum. Different points of view help us all learn.

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu May 14, 2020 8:43 am

There's also an extremely detailed wiki, linked to at the top of this forum, that should at least provide the basic answers about investing and, more pertinent to this board, the Boglehead's Philosophy, but people can't be bothered to read.

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by bondsr4me » Thu May 14, 2020 8:45 am

carolinaman wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:37 am
JoMoney wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:29 am

FWIW, you don't have to comment or read threads that annoy you.
I agree. I do not think we want "groupthink" by everyone on our forum. Different points of view help us all learn.
+1
Diversity of thinking often leads to better ideas....IMHO

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by veindoc » Thu May 14, 2020 8:48 am

I doubt this is a new phenomenon. People come in, ask for ideas and we share them. They either agree and stay on to educate others or they move on.

Ed 2
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Ed 2 » Thu May 14, 2020 8:52 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies.

Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
I remember similar posts back in 2009-2010.
I think we shouldn’t make and subforum posts for newbies. It would be a mistake by isolating them. I agree , this times we see way more posts like this due to faster And easier delivered news. There is no play book answer to this problem. I guess like Jack used to say “ time is your friend “ . We just need to fight it and constantly keep posting something over and over again.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

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Rick Ferri
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Rick Ferri » Thu May 14, 2020 8:52 am

Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:25 am
The forum could be called "Non-Boglehead Investing Strategies."
That's the rest of the web. I'm not a fan of bringing it here.

You can have one foot in the church and still participate successfully on this forum. Education is what this place is all about. Those of us in the choir will try to lure you in, have you gradually move up to the alter, and maybe eventually join the choir once you see the light. This takes many years, much patience, and a process. The process is under my name on every post I make. :D

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Ed 2 » Thu May 14, 2020 9:01 am

Rick Ferri wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:52 am
Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:25 am
The forum could be called "Non-Boglehead Investing Strategies."
That's the rest of the web. I'm not a fan of bringing it here.

You can have one foot in the church and still participate successfully on this forum. Education is what this place is all about. Those of us in the choir will try to lure you in, have you gradually move up to the alter, and maybe eventually join the choir once you see the light. This takes many years, much patience, and a process. The process is under my name on every post I make. :D

Rick Ferri
:sharebeer I haven’t post for years. Decided to start. I think I stuck on post replying for a while. Probably until this crisis is flattened )). Thank you Rick. I am your long time admirer.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Cyclesafe » Thu May 14, 2020 9:11 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies.

Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
But it's not possible to both be receptive to new ideas and preemptively quash clear boglehead dissonances like market timing. Hopefully these latter posts would be apparent in their title so they can be skipped. It would be nice if a user could exclude self-identified threads when bringing up "unread posts" upon logon.
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Rick's last line

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu May 14, 2020 9:28 am

Rick:

I never before noticed the last line in all your posts"
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
I love it!!

Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "This business is all about simplicity and low cost. I'm not into all these market strategies and theories and cost-benefit analyses - all the bureaucracy that goes with business. In investing, strip all the baloney out of it, and give people what you promise."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by desiderium » Thu May 14, 2020 10:25 am

I would venture to guess that many, if not most, who self-identify as "Bogleheads" have gotten there after their own experience stock picking, market timing, following newsletters or paying financial advisors. Welcome the unwashed.

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Ed 2 » Thu May 14, 2020 10:36 am

desiderium wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:25 am
I would venture to guess that many, if not most, who self-identify as "Bogleheads" have gotten there after their own experience stock picking, market timing, following newsletters or paying financial advisors. Welcome the unwashed.
Yap, one of my first experience) was Janus Growth and Income fund. If anyone remember during dot come bubble) lucky enough I learned my lesson and found Vanguard.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by warowits » Thu May 14, 2020 10:44 am

Most of those posters know where they are when they post. Read between the lines and some are saying ‘my gut says I am a great market timer, or my fear is spiraling out of control, can you guys keep me from making a big mistake?“

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cinghiale
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by cinghiale » Thu May 14, 2020 10:46 am

OP, I’m sympathetic. Really, I am.

Please see the second quote in my signature line. With all that has happened in the past few months, we are living in unique and unprecedented times, when "the first duty of intelligent (veteran Bogleheads posters) is the restatement of the obvious."

The scammers and spammers and opportunists are hard at work. Crisis creates opportunity. We need to be patient with new posters.
"We don't see things as they are; we see them as we are." Anais Nin | | "Sometimes the first duty of intelligent men is the restatement of the obvious." George Orwell

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by David Jay » Thu May 14, 2020 10:53 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:43 am
There's also an extremely detailed wiki, linked to at the top of this forum, that should at least provide the basic answers about investing and, more pertinent to this board, the Boglehead's Philosophy, but people can't be bothered to read.
Sometimes new people don't know about the Wiki and sometimes we fail to send them there.

A great practice is to give an answer and then link to the appropriate Wiki page for further information. That way we can give the newcomer an immediate "fish" and help them to "learn to fish".
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by WildBill » Thu May 14, 2020 11:29 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies.

Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
Howdy

Interesting thought

Preemptively segregate questions and opinions that you dislike or that annoy you? Based on which criteria and by what process?

If it is a set of criteria of your choosing, which it seems to be, or sufficiently vague for it to be non-actionable, then you can self select those posts you wish to see/ do not wish to see yourself and not attempt to impose your opinions on other members. No one is making you read or do anything. Please allow others the same privilege.

I appreciate the diversity of opinion and (usually) intelligent debate on the forum. I have no interest in the echo chamber and groupthink you seem to recommend.

W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu May 14, 2020 11:36 am

This topic is now in the Forum Issues and Administration sub-forum.
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by willv » Thu May 14, 2020 12:39 pm

I am a newbie and I hope this question is not out of place. On one end, I believe and want to embrace the Bogleheads philosophy, but on the other end, does that mean I would stop learning from there, since something like a three fund or two fund portfolio is almost like set it and forget it. I mean I am a healthcare worker so I can't expect myself to know as much as those in the finance sector, but is that pretty much all I need to know about long-term investing?

For example knowing about market trends, why such and such company is under or over valued, or does this company or this sector have the potential to grow long term etc. I find such topics highly interesting and I really want to be more informed about them - however is there a practicality for a Boglehead to know this if we just stay the course?

Many thanks!

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Fallible » Thu May 14, 2020 4:30 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies.

Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
I don't think it's possible to identify with any certainty a "vast majority of new posters" in any category on the forum. It's also hard/impossible to know with any certainty whether these newbies are "often" taught unsuccessfully by others here or whether success just takes time, as learning usually does. And while repeated posts referring to market timing can be frustrating, especially when timing is misunderstood as it often is, they provide an opportunity to do just what Rick Ferri said we're here to do: educate.
Last edited by Fallible on Thu May 14, 2020 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. ~Richard Feynman

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by GerryL » Thu May 14, 2020 5:17 pm

willv wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 12:39 pm
I am a newbie and I hope this question is not out of place. On one end, I believe and want to embrace the Bogleheads philosophy, but on the other end, does that mean I would stop learning from there, since something like a three fund or two fund portfolio is almost like set it and forget it. I mean I am a healthcare worker so I can't expect myself to know as much as those in the finance sector, but is that pretty much all I need to know about long-term investing?

For example knowing about market trends, why such and such company is under or over valued, or does this company or this sector have the potential to grow long term etc. I find such topics highly interesting and I really want to be more informed about them - however is there a practicality for a Boglehead to know this if we just stay the course?

Many thanks!
If you have decided that you don't want to have to get into the weeds about investing and are convinced that a basic index fund portfolio meets your needs, then no, you don't need to … get into the weeds. But if market trends and investing minutia are of interest to you, go ahead and learn more. Just be careful that your little bit of new knowledge does not take you off course. "Off course" might be signaled by a post starting out, "I know we aren't supposed to be trying to time the market, but …."

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Ed 2 » Thu May 14, 2020 6:53 pm

willv wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 12:39 pm
I am a newbie and I hope this question is not out of place. On one end, I believe and want to embrace the Bogleheads philosophy, but on the other end, does that mean I would stop learning from there, since something like a three fund or two fund portfolio is almost like set it and forget it. I mean I am a healthcare worker so I can't expect myself to know as much as those in the finance sector, but is that pretty much all I need to know about long-term investing?

For example knowing about market trends, why such and such company is under or over valued, or does this company or this sector have the potential to grow long term etc. I find such topics highly interesting and I really want to be more informed about them - however is there a practicality for a Boglehead to know this if we just stay the course?

Many thanks!
Totally understand. I am in health care too. But I am an economy news junky. I love to watch trends and individual companies. When they report. How some indexes behave. Like for example VIX index (volatility index aka fear index) . I learned a lot how market behave when VIX over 50 or over 80 levels like it was in March at some point. I have to admit I have one individual stock position at AAPL ( Apple) I bought it when it was at $165. Never sold it and never added more. My portfolio very boring and simple overall Total stock market index , Total International Index and I Bonds mostly. Kids 529 in’ s at Wellington fund’s . Some at Fidelity ETF’s identical as Vanguard ITOT and IXUS. You can google them. But my curiosity about stocks and trends doesn’t make me to trade or react , “ mitigate “ like some suggestions. Just dollar cost average every week and sometimes buy on real sell off like it was back in March. That is it . Very simple, maybe boring for some. I would prefer to have existing life outside of my investments. Hope it helps.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by delamer » Thu May 14, 2020 7:35 pm

I don’t think the vast majority of newbies are convinced of anything; I think they are searching for answers and/or are scared.


What would the point be of having a subforum for newbies to learn in unless experienced Bogleheads participated to educate them?

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu May 14, 2020 7:54 pm

I don't think a separate subforum for people clinging to frequently-refuted notions will be useful. Who would start a thread in it?

For the past couple of weeks I haven't posted because I got sick of debunking the same bunk which, in that instance by a new poster but it isn't always, got rebunked.

It's somebody else's turn.

PJW

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by 7eight9 » Thu May 14, 2020 8:46 pm

Relegate newbies to a proverbial "kiddie table"?

Who gets to decide when they are old enough to sit at the "adult table"?

I think that is a lousy idea.
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Stinky » Fri May 15, 2020 10:13 am

desiderium wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:25 am
I would venture to guess that many, if not most, who self-identify as "Bogleheads" have gotten there after their own experience stock picking, market timing, following newsletters or paying financial advisors. Welcome the unwashed.
Yes.

My education was CGM Focus fund in 2008. I lost 50% in four months - way more than the indices lost.

I’ve been an indexer ever since.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Ed 2 » Sat May 16, 2020 9:25 pm

delamer wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 7:35 pm
I don’t think the vast majority of newbies are convinced of anything; I think they are searching for answers and/or are scared.


What would the point be of having a subforum for newbies to learn in unless experienced Bogleheads participated to educate them?
Some of them trying to justify their special trading technique to beat the market. New investors have recency bias when they making decisions how to invest.That is how we humans behave. We react on most recent information and ignoring long term historical trends.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Sandtrap » Sat May 16, 2020 9:43 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies.

Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
The forum is wonderfully equitable for all posters and acceptable topics.
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Chip » Sun May 17, 2020 6:37 am

Sandtrap wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 9:43 pm
The forum is wonderfully equitable for all posters and acceptable topics.
[...]
Noises in the attic
Oh boy. For anyone who hasn't read it, this is the classic Boglehead troubleshooting thread of all time:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=62092

Plus the followup threads:

viewtopic.php?t=73431

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=74796

I see that the OP of those threads still visits here. He/she should come out and take a bow for incredible perseverance in the face of things that go bump in the night.

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by FIREninja » Mon May 18, 2020 12:51 am

Long time reader and huge fan of bogleheads. First post.

I tried for the first time a dual momentum strategy that had been discussed by some posters on this site some time ago. After arbitrarily selecting the 22nd to check signals (a date of personal significance) I pulled out half of my portfolio from equities (my entire 401k/TSP) effective 23 December 2018.

You know the rest of the story. Market sharply rebounded and began a substantial recovery but I dutifully waited a month for the re-enter 'signal' confirmation. By the time I did so I locked in 20% 401k losses that persist to today. Fool me once...

Sometimes it takes a little heat or getting 'burned' to better appreciate the bogleheads philosophy. But I am grateful for the diversity of opinion here, and wouldn"t want it any other way. :)

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Stinky » Mon May 18, 2020 6:45 am

FIREninja wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 12:51 am
Long time reader and huge fan of bogleheads. First post.

I tried for the first time a dual momentum strategy that had been discussed by some posters on this site some time ago. After arbitrarily selecting the 22nd to check signals (a date of personal significance) I pulled out half of my portfolio from equities (my entire 401k/TSP) effective 23 December 2018.

You know the rest of the story. Market sharply rebounded and began a substantial recovery but I dutifully waited a month for the re-enter 'signal' confirmation. By the time I did so I locked in 20% 401k losses that persist to today. Fool me once...

Sometimes it takes a little heat or getting 'burned' to better appreciate the bogleheads philosophy. But I am grateful for the diversity of opinion here, and wouldn"t want it any other way. :)
Welcome to the Forum!

So - after your "debacle" in 2018, are you now following the typical Boglehead philosophy? Or are you still using a momentum strategy?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by nisiprius » Mon May 18, 2020 7:09 am

I think it's a (recurring) problem.

I've never been able to think of a good solution.

Someone once pointed out that a characteristic of Wikipedia is that if a lot of people are reading an article, there will be a lot of editors following and correcting it, so it is likely to be accurate; if few people are reading an article, it may be inaccurate but since few people are reading it it, it won't do much harm. Similarly, I hope (and suspect) that it doesn't do much harm to have fans of non-Bogle-inspired investing strategies talking amongst themselves. The newbies will ask newbie questions and get Bogleheadish answers. They probably won't be drawn to the Dark Side by thread titles like "MFKZ or ZKMF best Asian tech multifactor limerence-screened ETF?"

I personally wish that you could not join the forum without passing a rudimentary quiz first. I don't truly think it's a good idea but it's fun to try to formulate such a quiz.

1) Who was Jack Bogle?
a) A famous pro golf player.
b) A brilliant stock "operator" who shorted the market just before 1929.
c) Founder of Vanguard and creator of the first index mutual fund.

2) What single phrase is most characteristic of "investing advice inspired by Jack Bogle?"
a) "Stay the course."
b) "Cut your losses and let your profits run."
c) "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

3) What kind of investment vehicle was most commonly recommended by Jack Bogle?
a) Adequately diversified portfolios of no more than ten stocks (in order to avoid diluting your best ideas)
b) Broad-based index mutual funds
c) Non-traded REITs

4) Identify these ticker symbols: QSPRX, VOO, CVS
a) I don't know and I don't care.
b) AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund (R6 class), Vanguard 500 Index ETF, CVS Health stock
c) Hmmm. QSPRX might be some mutual fund. VOO begins with V so maybe Vanguard? CVS sounds like a drugstore?

The "right" answer to 4 is (a), of course.
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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by LadyGeek » Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 am

For this discussion, the intent is to put everyone who doesn't follow the Bogleheads investment philosophy into a separate category. That's not going to happen.

Most new investors consider investing complicated. They want peace-of-mind knowing that a financial advisor will "just take care of it".

The ads for Ameriprise, Edward Jones, Morgan Stanley, and even Fidelity send a strong message to "let us help you in retirement". There's no mention that high advisory fees can shave years off their retirement lifestyle. And don't get me started on Fisher Investments.

So why do they come here? We're mainly a DIY (Do It Yourself) investing forum. Investors who participate here are ready to take the next step and try this on their own. Perhaps they got tired of their advisor not doing anything for them. Or, they figured out how much those advisors were really costing them.*

We need to recognize that new investors don't know they're doing anything "wrong". Be patient and explain why using their own situation. Keep the explanations simple. If you use math, provide the equation and a clear worked-out example.

To be clear, there is absolutely nothing wrong with recommending an "all-in-one" fund to someone who needs simplicity. There is also nothing wrong with recommending a financial advisor if someone can't (or doesn't want to) manage a portfolio on their own.

It's always better to have the lowest possible cost portfolio. However, the first principle is "do no harm".

The first step is to educate new investors on the concept of buy-and-hold diversification using low-cost index funds. Once they see the light, then determine if they can do this on their own and recommend accordingly. If not, then point them to a good low cost advisory service.

=================
* There are the occasional "investing enthusiasts" who give our experts a fun challenge, but that's not the point here.
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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by Fallible » Mon May 18, 2020 11:58 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

... Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
When you talk about new investors "convinced" about market timing, etc., and "trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin/oil futures," do you mean truly new investors with mistaken ideas but wishing to learn to invest wisely, or do you mean beat-the-market investors coming here to challenge the BH philosophy?

The latter are the ones more likely to come here to convince others of a supposedly superior way to invest, while the "newbies" you mention arrive here confused, but with sincere requests for help.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. ~Richard Feynman

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Rowan Oak
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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon May 18, 2020 5:49 pm

In my early days (10+ yrs ago) on this forum I remember thinking that most members must be Bogleheads and the opinions and advice that I was reading, for the most part, was based on complete agreement with the Bogleheads investment philosophy. After all, the Bogleheads motto is "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle". I eventually learned that this wasn't necessarily true.

The idea I had, but know would never be implemented, was this:

When you signup to join you are given the option of answering a questionaire on a scale from strongly disagree to strongly agree (or something like this) with the 10 principles of the Bogleheads investment philosophy:

1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Diversify
5 Never try to time the market
6 Use index funds when possible
7 Keep costs low
8 Minimize taxes
9 Invest with simplicity
10 Stay the course

Based on your answers you could be given a score or percentage that shows the degree to which your investment philosophy aligns with the Bogleheads investment philosophy. You could then choose to make your score public by displaying the score with the other information under your username/avatar. And if a member wants more information your score could be linked to a page with the details of your score and which principles you agree with and which ones you don't. I think 7 and 8 pretty much guarantee the lowest score would be 20%.

Again, I realize this won't happen and that there are negatives to such an idea, but I do believe it would help some members/visitors.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by FIREninja » Mon May 18, 2020 9:59 pm

Stinky wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 6:45 am
Welcome to the Forum!

So - after your "debacle" in 2018, are you now following the typical Boglehead philosophy? Or are you still using a momentum strategy?
Thanks, Stinky. I consider myself a 'de facto' Buy and Hold Index/DFA fund investor, a strong aficionado of small and mid-cap value equities, and am mildly curious about the effective use of leverage with investments.

I employed a Dual Momentum strategy for the past three years in my TSP using one year lookbacks via TSPFolio until December 2018, and refined the strategy to use shorter lookback windows between January 2019 until February this year when portfoliovisualizer started charging for future timing signals. During March while waiting to see when portfoliovisualizer's timing signal would show up under their new pricing structure, the market tanked and I didn't have access to the March signal until April, so I chose to 'Stay the Course' and remained Buy & Hold for all of my investments.

The overall strategy that I used similar to what another boglehead emeritus(?) Paul Merriman uses... 50% buy and hold and 50% timing. I don't expect market timing to outperform in general, but strategy diversification has its own merits and would likely lead to staggered upticks and downturns not fully in sync with the markets at large. I also have some doubt as to the merits of market timing in this era of supercomputers/AI executing algorithm-driven high frequency trades, which I believe is distorting market fundamentals and shortening lookback windows for optimal timing models.

The value of my S-fund shares were down 16.5% from when I left the market (effective December 24, 2018) until I re-entered (February 1, 2019) so I paid a premium to re-enter and missed out on 19.7% gains. Your query prompted me to check portfoliovisualizer's backtest data for March and April this year in my timing model, and I manually calculated my trade signal for May. If I was still acting on portfoliovisualizer trade signals I would have exited equities for bonds March 2nd and bought equities again (S-Fund) on sale May 1st when the value of S-Fund shares was 14.8% less than when I left the market, which would have practically erased my losses from December 2018 :shock: . Regrettably(?) I didn't 'Stay the Course' executing my timing model.

So six or half-a-dozen. I have considered other momentum alternatives (e.g. MTUM) but have never held any such momentum funds nor ETFs. I'm undecided whether to revisit mechanical market timing (not based on emotion) but as of today I am 100% buy and hold.

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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by 02nz » Mon May 18, 2020 10:14 pm

FIREninja wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:59 pm
During March while waiting to see when portfoliovisualizer's timing signal would show up under their new pricing structure, the market tanked and I didn't have access to the March signal until April
So the timing of that timing signal made it a bit less useful for timing the market? :wink:

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Cubicle
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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by Cubicle » Mon May 18, 2020 10:39 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 am
For this discussion, the intent is to put everyone who doesn't follow the Bogleheads investment philosophy into a separate category. That's not going to happen.

...

So why do they come here? We're mainly a DIY (Do It Yourself) investing forum.

...

We need to recognize that new investors don't know they're doing anything "wrong". Be patient and explain why using their own situation.
Thousands & thousands of percent ^^^^^^^^^^^^this. Every single one of us here, at one point, knew nothing.

There are experts who are still learning. The most learned person can still learn something from someone less.

If it is tiring & repetitive, then BogleHeads might not be the best place to be. I think a core, critical, fundamental, tenet of BogleHeads, Jack Bogle, & many many people I don't even want to start naming, is the desire, if not sense of duty, to help others achieve financial success. Even if it means telling someone paying off a high interest credit card is better than keeping money in a 0.0000001% savings account; so basic, so simple, so obvious(!!!) that "we shouldn't have to even say it". But it needs to be done.
"Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓

FIREninja
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by FIREninja » Mon May 18, 2020 10:50 pm

02nz wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:14 pm
FIREninja wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:59 pm
During March while waiting to see when portfoliovisualizer's timing signal would show up under their new pricing structure, the market tanked and I didn't have access to the March signal until April
So the timing of that timing signal made it a bit less useful for timing the market? :wink:
Timing signal, Trade signal... Tomato, Tomahto. Uh, yeah. :)

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Stinky
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Re: New bogleheads induction

Post by Stinky » Mon May 18, 2020 11:08 pm

FIREninja wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:59 pm
...... as of today I am 100% buy and hold.
Good decision.

I believe that buy and hold will give me market returns over time, with occasional minimal rebalancing effort.

Market timing might give me the same market returns over time. But I’m afraid that I would constantly be changing methods, looking for the “ultimate” timing method, and that I would end up underperforming the market. Plus, I would spend a whole lot of mental energy in the process.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue May 19, 2020 1:19 pm

The only thing I would suggest is to combine all the old threads on International, Pay Mortgage or Invest, and DCA vs Lump Sum and pin them somewhere. Many of the top contributors to this forum have posted gems in those threads years ago and I don't blame those that do not want to keep posting the same material every 10 days. I bet BH has enough well thought out posts about International to sell a NYT bestseller. I certainly appreciate and learned a lot on that topic by reading older threads but the search feature became my friend the day I signed up.

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by grabiner » Tue May 19, 2020 5:52 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:19 pm
The only thing I would suggest is to combine all the old threads on International, Pay Mortgage or Invest, and DCA vs Lump Sum and pin them somewhere. Many of the top contributors to this forum have posted gems in those threads years ago and I don't blame those that do not want to keep posting the same material every 10 days.
The wiki is the place for a lot of the established information; it is common in such a thread to cite Paying down loans versus investing, or similarly for the other pages.

But for paying down loans versus investing, there need to be new threads because the individual circumstances are different. I tend to be one of the stronger advocates of paying down a mortgage, but I often advise posters not to do it, or to do it only if they don't itemize deductions, because it doesn't make economic sense with their rates and investments.
Wiki David Grabiner

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by celia » Tue May 19, 2020 6:03 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
And what do you think newbies will learn from other newbies?

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed May 20, 2020 7:34 am

celia wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:03 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
And what do you think newbies will learn from other newbies?
Bogleheads would still engage with the sub forum

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by augryphon » Wed May 20, 2020 7:57 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes.

The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies.

Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
I agree! We're all tempted by alternate allocations, so why not a separate board to keep things organized?

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by LadyGeek » Wed May 20, 2020 9:00 am

Because you can't organize things that way. This isn't an exercise forum where you've learned the ropes and advance to the next level of difficulty. It's your life's savings and you need to have your all your information collected in one spot from start to finish.

For example: A new investor posts portfolio info using the Asking Portfolio Questions format. The questions are answered and now she has confidence in what to do.

Now, she asks a new question and starts a thread in the "not a newbie" forum. All of the previous insight and discussion is lost in the old thread.

So, you end up with two threads. The first is bumped with new insight, the second is a bunch of questions which have been answered in the first thread. It's why moderators (like me) combine these threads. Keeping everything in one thread is critical to ensuring the newbie gets appropriate advice, as important information may have been missed.

An additional benefit is that having everything in one thread will allow members who've helped this newbie before to help them again. How? Posting in a thread shows up under the Your posts "Quick links" drop-down menu. You'll instantly know that the newbie has more questions (or someone supplied additional comments).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by Fallible » Wed May 20, 2020 9:36 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:34 am
celia wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:03 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:22 am
Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures?
And what do you think newbies will learn from other newbies?
Bogleheads would still engage with the sub forum
OP: how would you define "newbies"?
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. ~Richard Feynman

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Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Post by celia » Wed May 20, 2020 12:20 pm

And how would you enforce "newbie-ism"? What's to prevent them from posting where they currently do?

Even **I** don't follow all of the Bogle philosophy. Should I go to the newbie corner? :oops:
Last edited by celia on Wed May 20, 2020 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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