For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

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Boulous
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For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by Boulous » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm

Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous

asif408
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by asif408 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:43 pm

Can you give a few specific examples or the one you are particularly interested in ?

DaftInvestor
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by DaftInvestor » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:43 pm

I read the posts carefully and look at the arguments/back-up-data. If someone says "YES" or "NO" without providing details, evidence, data, etc. backing up their answer then I disregard. If it isn't clear to me I ask questions - even if I think they are dumb questions (I started here with questions I thought were dumb - thus my username).

randomguy
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by randomguy » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:44 pm

You need to understand the reasoning behind the Yes and Nos and how people came to their answer. And a lot of stuff is just opinions....

livesoft
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by livesoft » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:55 pm

Human beings are not all the same. You are not the same as anyone else.

Over many years, you will probably figure out which opinions you like to follow, which opinions you do not like to follow, and even create some of your own original thinking. In the meantime, you may wish to take some tests to see how you do when compared to others on some testable metrics.

Something that might interest folks: http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11808/jdm11808.pdf and an example of a result:
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by runner3081 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:56 pm

I think the diverse/differing opinions are great. People have a question, review feedback that may shed new light on the situation and then it is up to those who "ask" the questions to combine what they know with what others say (use/discard) and move forward with a decision.

alex_686
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by alex_686 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:07 pm

Investment Theory falls under Economics, so a Social Science.

There are no fundamental flaws of human nature as their is in the hard sciences. Data is rarely clear and unambiguous. Human society evolves, so relationships evolves.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.

dbr
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by dbr » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:07 pm

The primary issue is to separate opinions and preference from information.

I think viewing any discussion as positions being argued on evidence is a mistake. The alternative is to view discussions as information about facts and as lessons in how to usefully think about the question. There can be legitimately different ways to think about something and that is ok. There can also be a bunch of not helpful or even wrong ways to think about something. But, I am biased in favor of science and against resolving issues by adversary debate.

What people actually do in their own case is a matter of preference and judgement based on facts and clear thinking. The reader has to sort that out for himself. The mantra that there are many roads to Dublin should always be kept in mind. Most discussions about investing are underspecified, meaning the requirements are outnumbered by the options and do not result in unique correct solutions.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by WildBill » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:09 pm

Howdy

I have leaned a lot here. The variety and depth of knowledge is impressive.

Just off the top of my head - Valuethinker and Nisiprius on any subject, and Livesoft on tax avoidance and RBDS, also his wide-ranging arsenal of well-meaning and entertaining snark. He is, however, totally unsound on oatmeal.

Good luck to all

W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by telemark » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:20 pm

The answer to all but the very simplest questions is almost always "it depends." Does going from an expense ratio of 1.5% down to 0.10% make a difference? Yes, absolutely. How about going from 0.02 to 0.01? No, just no. But there are always people who want one-size-fits-all answers.

My advice is to pay attention to the reasons presented and decide how they apply to your situation.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by McGilicutty » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:36 pm

As a newish poster, it's probably not a bad idea to just go with the three-fund portfolio. Then, as you get more experience, you can decide if you want to tilt, factor, go on an excellent adventure, buy gold, buy individual stocks, or whatever.

RTF
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by RTF » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:49 pm

I have learned and still am learning an incredible amount of information everyday here. It amazes me the in-depth knowledge so many people freely give.

One thing I have noticed though is it’s a pretty close minded group.(I lump myself in there as well) If the post doesn’t contain tickers like vti,voo,vxus, bnd etc, it’s usually said to be a lousy investment. I enjoy reading the RE topics, but since it’s not BH approved, not much can really come of it.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:49 pm

Or coming from the other direction, after losing money day trading and holding individual stocks and gold and silver and working with an advisor and tilting, one gains experience and realizes that the 3 fund portfolio works better than all that nonsense.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:56 pm

This thread is now in the Forum Issues and Administration forum (managing member advice).
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rich126
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by rich126 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:20 pm

There are a lot of very risk averse people here. Also a lot of people who want to be helpful but at times only know a little and not a lot and can be very wrong.

One of the things I've done in life is to ask a lot of questions. Many times I think I know the answer but sometimes someone (sometimes least expected) says something that is I hadn't considered before. In person I may ask people questions where I don't care much about the answer but I am more interested in their reaction to my question, that can tell you a lot.

Like anything in life, it is your life and you need to figure out what you want to do and who you should listen to more or less. And never put all your eggs in one basket, sometimes sure things aren't so sure, whether investing or in other fields.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by epargnant » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:10 pm

When I first started reading Bogleheads I spent more time reading the wiki pages than the forum. After that, it tends to be easier to predict the responses & know which side you lean towards.

Often, there are multiple good approaches to a problem.

MadHungarian
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by MadHungarian » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:38 pm

Well, you know the rules on forum responses in any sort of forum:
Out of 20 responses, 5 will be yes, 5 will be no, and the other 10 will be completely unrelated to the question asked.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by Sandtrap » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:43 pm

dbr wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:07 pm
The primary issue is to separate opinions and preference from information.

I think viewing any discussion as positions being argued on evidence is a mistake. The alternative is to view discussions as information about facts and as lessons in how to usefully think about the question. There can be legitimately different ways to think about something and that is ok. There can also be a bunch of not helpful or even wrong ways to think about something. But, I am biased in favor of science and against resolving issues by adversary debate.

What people actually do in their own case is a matter of preference and judgement based on facts and clear thinking. The reader has to sort that out for himself. The mantra that there are many roads to Dublin should always be kept in mind. Most discussions about investing are underspecified, meaning the requirements are outnumbered by the options and do not result in unique correct solutions.
+1
IMHO: The best I can hope for is to provide a broad viewpoint or overview of things and perhaps make a list of considerations, often in question form, that an OP may not have considered, or might broaden and deepen the perspective with a very long view.
Hopefully, that will be actionable and useful, or at least entertaining. . . .

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:51 pm

1. years ago in a social psychology class I learned that there are more variations within groups than between groups. In that class this theory was attributed to Walter Mischel. The idea stuck with me because it seems intuitively right. Are all men (one group) the same? No. Some are tall. Some are short. Some are thin. Some are fat. Some have blond hair. Some have brown hair. And so on. You can do this with any group.

By the same metric, between groups there should be more similarities than differences. Take men and women (two different groups). There are some tall men and women. There are some short men and women. And so on.

And yes, this also applies to political groups as well if you think about it deeply enough.

So the question is knowing this, would you expect the bogleheads to be a borg, hivemind, etc or have disparate ideas?

2. I've also learned that many people don't like to hold contradictory ideas in their mind at the same time. People tend to think in black and white terms. But the world rarely operates that way. This makes some uncomfortable. But sometimes growth comes out of conflict.

Early on in my bogleheading I read an interesting post from someone who wrote about having more money than they needed for the rest of his/her life. The question was what to do? As you can imagine some said, "If you don't have a need to take risk, why take risk?" (if you've won the game stop playing). While others said, "If this is money that will be for someone else (because it's more than YOU need) then you can afford to take risk because the outcome doesn't matter to you (but might to the others the money's left to).

I found this type of thinking exhilarating, but I imagine there were some who found it downright frustrating. Some people want to be told what to do or think. But sometimes there are no right answers. Or rather, sometimes there are "many roads to Dublin". This is what puts the "personal" in personal finance.
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by hudson » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:11 pm

Boulous wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm
Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
Keep reading the forum and you will eventually develop a set of investing beliefs.
Maybe start reading the Boglehead authors if you haven't already started. Rick Ferri, Larry Swedroe, Taylor Larimore, and William Bernstein are my favorites authors. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_ ... nd_reviews

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by pkcrafter » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:25 pm

Boulous wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm
Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
There are many ways to invest and we have a good percentage of members on the forum who don't invest by Boglehead standards. I don't even know why some of them hang around, but low cost is hard to argue with. My advise is stick with documented Boglehead principles like the 3 fund portfolio. Read the Wiki, avoid any complex strategies.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by Fallible » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:48 pm

Boulous wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm
...
How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem? ...
There are lots of good opinions on this thread, but they don’t all agree, so you must be back to asking which one is the one to follow. And on it goes.

My opinion is that your question goes well beyond the forum and to life itself. To discern well the ghastly and growing amounts of information out there, one must know oneself, what is right for oneself, what information pertains and is useful and valuable. In life and on the forum, one should expect a variety of opinions reflecting individual differences, and then be able to judge which is the "right" one (or ones) to follow. And if you don't see anything worth following, rephrasing the question may help.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. ~Richard Feynman

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by dbr » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:33 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:51 pm


Early on in my bogleheading I read an interesting post from someone who wrote about having more money than they needed for the rest of his/her life. The question was what to do? As you can imagine some said, "If you don't have a need to take risk, why take risk?" (if you've won the game stop playing). While others said, "If this is money that will be for someone else (because it's more than YOU need) then you can afford to take risk because the outcome doesn't matter to you (but might to the others the money's left to).

I found this type of thinking exhilarating, but I imagine there were some who found it downright frustrating. Some people want to be told what to do or think. But sometimes there are no right answers. Or rather, sometimes there are "many roads to Dublin". This is what puts the "personal" in personal finance.
I love that stuff too. As time has gone on I think I ask more and more frequently of posters "What do you want?" rather than suggest "You should . . ."

MathWizard
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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by MathWizard » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:13 pm

Ask whether you should market time
or whether you should pick individual stocks
or use a high fee advisor
or invest in a hedge fund
or leverage 15x

Then you will get lots of the same answers.

If you ask whether to pay off the house or invest,
you will get diverse answers.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by sean.mcgrath » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:43 am

rich126 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:20 pm
There are a lot of very risk averse people here. Also a lot of people who want to be helpful but at times only know a little and not a lot and can be very wrong.
This is true, and what I often do is click on the person's name to read some of their other posts (I just clicked on rich126's out of curiosity :beer ). This gives me a sense of their depth in a particular subject. It has led me to some fantastic threads as a side bonus. The other thing is to ask a question: if they get defensive rather than giving a clear reply, that is a hint.

As others have stated, this forum is also an incredible resource. There is the depth of expertise: someone asks about property and they get a reply from thoughtful realtors, or about economics and get replies from economists. And there is the variety of perspectives: I could never look at a problem from so many angles in isolation.

Just keep going until you understand the various arguments and perspectives, and the opinions will form themselves. :happy

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by tre3sori » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:54 am

For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa...
I think this is a feature of a public forum, not a bug. You can just listen to the symphony of different opinions. Your own opinion will form over time. Don't take everything too seriously. Ok. It is money. Serious thing. But if you manage to put all these opinions at a little distance, it isn't as unsettling and disturbing any more.

That's what they like to say here: nobody knows nothing. some know even more nothing than others.
Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep by him in reserve. Talmud | 34% Real Estate, 40% VGWL, 17% VAGE, 6% 8PSG, 3% Cash

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by qwertyjazz » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:03 am

MathWizard wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:13 pm
Ask whether you should market time
or whether you should pick individual stocks
or use a high fee advisor
or invest in a hedge fund
or leverage 15x

Then you will get lots of the same answers.

If you ask whether to pay off the house or invest,
you will get diverse answers.
Maybe not even for those
Try I live in a HCOL area and want to buy my dream house. I have a huge EF and have 2 income secure jobs with pensions. Can I buy that house with a low down payment (15 x leverage)? My monthly costs will be less than my rent. I will not be moving due to family etc etc
I am pretty sure the advise would be all over the place including it is or is not really leverage.
G.E. Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful."

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by retiredjg » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:39 am

Boulous wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm
How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
In time you will realize that it is fruitless to look for "the answer" because there frequently isn't one. What you should be looking for is "an answer" that suits your needs.

Someone has a signature line about that. :happy


Also, with time, you will see what type of information is needed to make even halfway reliable suggestions about a poster's question. Don't put a lot of faith in answers given without the benefit of inadequate information.

Spend enough time here and you will see that some things are just opinion and some things are just personal preference...as mentioned by dbr above.

Understanding a lot of these concepts does take time. I guess the recurrent theme here is don't be in a rush. In the meantime, just keep saving money and paying off debt because those are very rarely the wrong thing to do.

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Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Post by nedsaid » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:04 am

Boulous wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 pm
Hi Bogleheads,
I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem?
What has been your experience dealing with opposing views??? they say opposites attract but definitely not in these circumstances.
Thanks
Boulous
Contrary information is a big challenge to the investor. Keep in mind that news media is relentlessly negative, if it bleeds it leads. I can almost guarantee that with any investment decision you make that within a few days you will see an article telling you that what you just did was 100% wrong. Investors need some knowledge of market and economic history, one needs the historical perspective as events unfold. You also need strong beliefs backed by facts and history so that you don't get swayed with every compelling article or book. Also keep in mind there are several macro investment approaches that work well over time and a bunch of investment approaches that don't.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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