Retirement Calculator for Non-US

For investors outside the US. Personal investments, personal finance, investing news and theory.
Sister forums: Canada, Spain (en español)
---------------
Post Reply
Topic Author
potz
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:11 am

Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by potz »

Hello,

Any one have any recommendations for a Retirement Calculator that is flexible enough for non-US planning?

I took a look at some calculators listed on the wiki https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirem ... d_spending, but all the ones I have tried so far seem geared towards Americans with US tax rates and Social Security hard coded in.

Is there anything that is geared towards NON Americans? that allows adjusting tax rates etc?

I am a bit of a nomad and want to test some different retirement savings scenarios based on the tax in different locations.

Am fine with something web based, or downloadable. Also fine with paying for something if it is useful.

Thanks!
Topic Author
potz
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:11 am

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by potz »

Seems I have found one that does NOT have any tax rates hard coded in (they are left out entirely..) and you can set pension rates to what ever you want.

https://www.cfiresim.com/

I have seen it mentioned in these forums before, but had never tried it.

Anyone have any other they recommend for Non-US ?
Last edited by potz on Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Hyperborea
Posts: 956
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:31 am
Location: Portugal

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by Hyperborea »

The big problem isn't taxes or SS being coded in. There are a number of more generic ones that don't have that or you can fit other national pensions in where SS is asked.

The big problem is lack of long term equity data from around the world to use to somewhat reliably simulate retirement results (as reliably as can be done using historical data). The US data reliably goes back to 1927 and with less reliability to 1871. This is all publicly available. The international data is more sparse, uneven, and what is available isn't all available for free. Without that data you can't model a retirement using an international investment portfolio.
It’s not just that facts don’t seem to matter anymore. It’s that it doesn’t seem to matter that facts don’t matter.
XtremePWN
Posts: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:01 am

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by XtremePWN »

You do have MSCI World going back to 1978 https://backtest.curvo.eu/portfolio/msc ... ZAnDsQLptA
User avatar
NearlyRetired
Posts: 350
Joined: Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: United Kingdom

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by NearlyRetired »

You could take a look at Flexible Retirement Planner here. It does allow you to set your own inflation rate and expected returns if you wish to do so.
To err is to be human, to really mess up, use a computer
User avatar
BeBH65
Posts: 1763
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by BeBH65 »

Hyperborea wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:10 am The big problem is lack of long term equity data from around the world to use to somewhat reliably simulate retirement results (as reliably as can be done using historical data). The US data reliably goes back to 1927 and with less reliability to 1871. This is all publicly available. The international data is more sparse, uneven, and what is available isn't all available for free. Without that data you can't model a retirement using an international investment portfolio.
Can you use the SWR of the SWR studies, including the one from Boglehead Siamond?
BeBH65. (only an investment enthusiast, not a financial adviser, perform your due diligence). | Have a look at https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Outline_of_Non-US_domiciles
User avatar
Hyperborea
Posts: 956
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:31 am
Location: Portugal

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by Hyperborea »

XtremePWN wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 3:16 am You do have MSCI World going back to 1978 https://backtest.curvo.eu/portfolio/msc ... ZAnDsQLptA
That's not a lot of data. If you use the US data from 1871 to 2020 that's 150 years of data. If you model a 30 year retirement how many data sets do you have? It depends on how you count the independence of one year to another. If you have no dependence from year to year (like most Monte Carlo modelling assumes) then you have 121 data sets. If you assume complete dependence then you've got 5 data sets. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

With 42 years of MSCI World market data (you'd also need inflation and bond data) you've got just more than 1 set at the worst case and 13 at the best. That's a lot less data and people already argue about the limited amount of US data in modelling retirement portfolios. It also doesn't cover the two worst times to retire based on the US data - the late 1960's and the late 1920's.

I know that there's better data out there but it's not free. I remember a book came out maybe 10 years or so ago based on the research of a number of professors on major national markets from around 1900 or so to the "present" (at the time of their research). The book only discussed the markets in general terms showed some graphs (not precise enough to pull accurate numbers from) and some broad statistics. IIRC their data is available for non-trivial amounts of money.

BeBH65 wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:34 am Can you use the SWR of the SWR studies, including the one from Boglehead Siamond?
Does the Boglehead one have international data? All of the ones I've seen and all the common calculators or modellers use the US data.
It’s not just that facts don’t seem to matter anymore. It’s that it doesn’t seem to matter that facts don’t matter.
User avatar
Tyler9000
Posts: 740
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:57 am

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by Tyler9000 »

potz wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:12 am Is there anything that is geared towards NON Americans?
Try these:

Withdrawal Rates
Retirement Spending

The first finds the safe and perpetual withdrawal rates for any portfolio using traditional spending assumptions used in most retirement studies. The second allows more flexibility to tweak variable spending rules to see how that affects the results.

And for the purposes of this discussion, they both have data (since 1970) for tons of unique assets and can translate the numbers to the currency and local inflation of a dozen different countries. And even though they don't account for taxes, they do account for expense ratios even for non-US ETFs. So they're uniquely good at studying withdrawal rates for non-Americans.

And if you want a longer explanation of how one's home country affects withdrawal rates, you may find this article interesting: Your Home Country Is Inseparable From Your Withdrawal Rate
User avatar
BeBH65
Posts: 1763
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Retirement Calculator for Non-US

Post by BeBH65 »

Hyperborea wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:39 am
BeBH65 wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:34 am Can you use the SWR of the SWR studies, including the one from Boglehead Siamond?
Does the Boglehead one have international data? All of the ones I've seen and all the common calculators or modellers use the US data.
https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/author/siamondblog/
BeBH65. (only an investment enthusiast, not a financial adviser, perform your due diligence). | Have a look at https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Outline_of_Non-US_domiciles
Post Reply