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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:27 am
by KlangFool
OP,


You post to document your bet. So, let's be very specific here.


A) I buy TSLA at this price on this date


B) I expect TSLA to go up 20% per year from year X to year Y.


C) If TSLA does not hit at the price Z on year Y, I would admit that my bet is wrong and I would sell.


D) I would sell if TSLA exceeds price A before years Y. I would sell B% of TSLA.


For example, I have a very specific rule about gambling on individual stock

1) 10X to 30X in 5 years.


2) When it triples (3X), I would sell 50%.


3) If it did not hit my target in 5 years, I would sell all my shares.


What are your rules? If you don't, how do you know whether you win or lose your bet?

KlangFool

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:29 am
by herbert_21
Kingswood noted that being in IT and investing in IT is a risk and no diversification at all:
This argument is true.

But, my opinion is:
There is no such thing as a "tech bubble". Any company that does not succeed in digitalization is already a zombie company anyways.

A few examples.
MCD is a tech company. We have the lockdown. They invented drive in and used their app for gamification.
Nike -> is up.
Any company that goes the e-commerce way is up.
Others are, put bluntly, dead and not making any money.

It's no coincidence that the Covid crisis speed up innovation by years.

So, say if you were a fortune 500 company, you just cannot go without ServiceNow, SAP and whatever.
These are the "safe bets" for the next 10 years.
And for the non-tech companies, see my argument above.

And no, I will not make an argument against investing in an index. That would be a fool's game.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:33 am
by herbert_21
Game plan
I do own 75 TSLA shares, and as I said, my plan is to own 100. Basically, it's a ten year bet. Yes, that's 2030.

a) if stock price goes down 20%, I buy another 25 more.
b) if stock price goes down more, I will hold it until 2030 and sell with a loss, or wait until it recovers.
c) if stock price is up, I will pay down all consumer/short term/high interest loan first, and
d) buy another 25 TSLA shares at whatever price, and keep them until I retire.

I would sell TSLA if my personal finance situation changes dramatically, or the business case has changed.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:38 am
by KlangFool
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:33 am Game plan
I do own 75 TSLA shares, and as I said, my plan is to own 100. Basically, it's a ten year bet. Yes, that's 2030.

a) if stock price goes down 20%, I buy another 25 more.
b) if stock price goes down more, I will hold it until 2030 and sell with a loss, or wait until it recovers.
c) if stock price is up, I will pay down all consumer/short term/high interest loan first, and
d) buy another 25 TSLA shares at whatever price, and keep them until I retire.

I would sell TSLA if my personal finance situation changes dramatically, or the business case has changed.
herbert_21,

<<b) if stock price goes down more, I will hold it until 2030 and sell with a loss, or wait until it recovers.>>

This is not a rule. You do not have to admit that you lose your bet with this rule. Where is your conviction?


<<c) if stock price is up, I will pay down all consumer/short term/high interest loan first, and>>


1) Up by exactly how much? How many TSLA stock do you plan to sell?

2) How do you pay down your loan without selling the TSLA stock?


<<d) buy another 25 TSLA shares at whatever price, and keep them until I retire.>>


If you sell TSLA stock at (c), why do you buy more TSLA stock at (d)?


Be very specific.

KlangFool

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:38 am
by Kingswood
If you want to buy future FAANG, than you have to look on companies, which are mid or small cap, not in top 10 of US SP500.
And unless you are very lucky or you have a crystal ball, you will most probably not be able to indentify next FAANG.

I am well aware of Cathy Wood and her ARK funds, but if you have a look on her performace historically, she delivered unexceptional return this year only. The boom was driven by price momentum, not by earnings. Therefor, the key question is still ahead of her - either her investment picks will start earning money according to pricing of stocks or they will not and than the funds will move to something else sooner or later. She has to deliver cash flows from operation, only then she will be right.

I can close this with one advice from my side.
Do not care about expected future - this is already priced in the market. Everyone knows, that clean energy and IT will be needed and is highly relevant for future growth of mankind, you are not smarter than others in this matter. What you should be taking care of are the unexpected possibilities of future life - what happens if solar storm blackouts half of the planet, if we have deflation or high inflation, currency debasement, war escalation between Asia and NATO, etc.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:42 am
by F150HD
My house is not on my land. I pay about $200 a month for it. Forever. But the loan was much less because of this.
this would deeply concern me personally on many levels.


as far as taking a loan to buy stock - never (for me).
Also am not sold on Tesla for many reasons.
Base model car around $50k (US). No way. Can buy a base Toyota Corolla for under half of that.
Their SUV is about $90k (thats insane) and most folks drive SUV shaped vehicles these days where I am, not cars.
Also in many climates a full 4x4 truck is far preferred (for work and winter).

Not saying never on Tesla, but for 'now' it isn't something I'd consider.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:44 am
by Kingswood
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:20 am Realistically Diversification is only good if you don't know what you are doing. The pros like fund managers do this diversification even though they have degrees in finance and their entire job is to pick stocks and in the end they under-perform the index because they end up diluting their best ideas. Also doing this diversification makes their funds behave more like indexes as tracking error in relation to a index goes down the more stocks you add to your portfolio. In the end you are paying the 1-2% fees for closet index tracker because the fund manager do this diversification. So it entirely comes down to how well you know the stocks you are owning. Whether you can do a Discounted Cash Flow valuation of these stocks and justify owning them at the current price. If you can't do that then diversify.
You can not be more wrong.
Risk Parity is the reason why you diversify. If you posses more uncorrelated assets with same expected return, your total portfolio volatility will be lower. This demands to diversify across assets, stock market is only one component of the portfolio.
Discounted cashflow valuation is not only question of calculation and math, otherwise it would be too easy. You have there future expected cash flow included, which means your expectations can be wrong, as the future is uknown and you can not count on unexpected events.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:56 am
by Nowizard
You make your choices and you get your results. There are many who have, or who will tell you they have, made significant amounts of money by purchasing the FANG stocks you mentioned. It looks easy and tempting. On this site, it will be seen as a poor choice, though you could probably find other sites supporting what is clearly a speculative approach from an analytic perspective. It may be projecting, but we did "invest" at a level that we now recognize was amazingly aggressive when much younger. We are among those where it worked out, but there are a few decisions along the way that are regretted. Just as there are those who invest very thoughtfully in terms of consistent theory who do not reach their financial goals, there are many stories of people investing speculatively who are "retiring" in their thirties. There are fewer in the first group than the second, though the second has great appeal to the "I want what I want when I want it" aspect of personality." Evaluate carefully. You have made one prudent decision by recognizing you can benefit from investing and that you are ready to do so. Being equally careful that you determine that you do not have to be correct with how you proceed, but you do have to accept the result is a next step.

Tim

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:57 am
by Valuethinker
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:30 am
Valuethinker wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:17 am
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:21 am Honestly these are all very old people you are talking to and your risk preferences and theirs will not align and you will not get the answer that you want. I would say try to think worst case that this does not work out would you be comfortable with the money going down the drain? If yes then continue if No then don't as stock picking is probability game in that every stock you pick will not be a winner. Some will be extreme losers some will be extreme winners. You don't know ahead of time which ones are which.
When you get to 60 my friend, you will not think that to be "very old".

My 93 year old mother, she is "very old".

"Very old" is always 20 years from where you are.
Well actually I am much younger than 20 years from 60. Counting from my current age it would be 39 years for me to go to 60. But the point still stands. For a guy who is 39 (referring to OP) the risk preferences will be vastly different from some-one who is 60 so it would not be wise to avoid taking some risk if the OP can afford to lose the money.
I think you totally missed my irony?

Rest assured, there are plenty of 20 year olds who think you are "very old" ;-).

Taylor Larrimore, one of the founding spirits of this board, is in his 90s and well remembers the Great Depression.

It's a fairly well-established principle of modern organisations that they have less than a 20 year memory bank. Thus, they tend to repeat the same initiatives (and the same mistakes) that they did 20 years before. In another 10 years there won't be anyone in banking or banking regulation who remembers the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. :( :(

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:02 am
by Valuethinker
Nowizard wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:56 am You make your choices and you get your results. There are many who have, or who will tell you they have, made significant amounts of money by purchasing the FANG stocks you mentioned. It looks easy and tempting. On this site, it will be seen as a poor choice, though you could probably find other sites supporting what is clearly a speculative approach from an analytic perspective. It may be projecting, but we did "invest" at a level that we now recognize was amazingly aggressive when much younger. We are among those where it worked out, but there are a few decisions along the way that are regretted. Just as there are those who invest very thoughtfully in terms of consistent theory who do not reach their financial goals, there are many stories of people investing speculatively who are "retiring" in their thirties. There are fewer in the first group than the second, though the second has great appeal to the "I want what I want when I want it" aspect of personality." Evaluate carefully. You have made one prudent decision by recognizing you can benefit from investing and that you are ready to do so. Being equally careful that you determine that you do not have to be correct with how you proceed, but you do have to accept the result is a next step.

Tim
The number of people who think double-digit stock returns are baked in.

Hence the "Financial Independence, Retire Early" slogan that has become so common.

Many of us have rewritten our career and financial investment plans twice - after the dot com bubble blew (stocks down -35% over nearly 3 years) and after 2008-09 (stocks down nearly 50% in 12 months, and our economic and career prospects blown to heck and hell with it).

The game then becomes "can I keep working as long as I need to?" Because you discover in your 50s that organisations are much more likely to try to get rid of you, than you are to be able to walk out at the time of your own choosing.

Old age sucks. But I've lost enough dear friends and family along the way to know that the alternative is not palatable either.

(Don't weep for me. I shall be alright financially. But in the late 1990s or even in mid 00s, I thought I would be a lot further ahead financially than I am. Some particularly unpleasant changes to pension taxation (UK) have had a big impact there.

In particular my net worth has risen, but the income that pot of money will produce has plummeted. The days when you could get 5% inflation-linked annuity rates, sigh ...)

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:18 am
by White Coat Investor
herbert_21 wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:53 am Hi,

I am 39, an IT guy, unmarried. I own a house which is 50% paid. My job is nice. I love my girl.
I sold my 3-room flat in a city and bought a house in the suburb. This was the first time I had money on my bank account.

I made a 50% down payment. I kept only 30k.
My interest rate is now at 0.5% (Europe, thank you, Draghi) and I learned that paying back early does not make sense. My rate is now €700, which currently is $830, plus $200. So I started investing with ETFs.

Now let's come to the topic. My house is not on my land. I pay about $200 a month for it. Forever. But the loan was much less because of this.
So I decided, if I can make debt for my house, I want to own something when I stop working. Bcs the house will be where I live, but it will be something I have to pay for (a liablility) and not sth I own, like Kyosaki says.

So I took a 10yr loan to buy some TSLA shares. I haven't made a lot of money, but I believe I will. I own 75 shares. I still want to buy more.

Today, Tesla was included in the S&P 500. Tesla is more than 25% of my portfolio. Another 30% is in AMZN and AAPL. Portfolio is about 70k, debt for investing is 20k, house is 150k, down payment was 150k. I think that growth stock will continue to outperform, and even as we see some recovery, this will continue bcs of low interest rates, low inflation rate and high deficit spending of FED and ECB.

Am I speculating or investing? To be continued.
Hmmmm.....3/4 of the portfolio in 3 techy large growth stocks. Investing on borrowed money. What could possibly go wrong?

Yes, you're speculating. Hope it works out for you. Sincerely. But I certainly wouldn't recommend what you're doing.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:19 am
by Anon9001
Kingswood wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:44 am
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:20 am Realistically Diversification is only good if you don't know what you are doing. The pros like fund managers do this diversification even though they have degrees in finance and their entire job is to pick stocks and in the end they under-perform the index because they end up diluting their best ideas. Also doing this diversification makes their funds behave more like indexes as tracking error in relation to a index goes down the more stocks you add to your portfolio. In the end you are paying the 1-2% fees for closet index tracker because the fund manager do this diversification. So it entirely comes down to how well you know the stocks you are owning. Whether you can do a Discounted Cash Flow valuation of these stocks and justify owning them at the current price. If you can't do that then diversify.
You can not be more wrong.
Risk Parity is the reason why you diversify. If you posses more uncorrelated assets with same expected return, your total portfolio volatility will be lower. This demands to diversify across assets, stock market is only one component of the portfolio.
Discounted cashflow valuation is not only question of calculation and math, otherwise it would be too easy. You have there future expected cash flow included, which means your expectations can be wrong, as the future is uknown and you can not count on unexpected events.
Interesting we can agree to disagree on this. I personally find diversification to be a insurance that is not automatically a free lunch in that you give up your potential to be insanely rich in exchange for reduced potential of black swans. Whether that is worth-while depends on how much money you have.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:21 am
by herbert_21
Here is my suggestion and wishes for this thread:

>>if you want to discuss on my personal asset allocation
Yes, please. Have a look at my suggestion with ETFs

Discuss Tesla here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=319059&p=5605703#p5605703


Portfolio striptease
Tesla 75
Amazon 6
Microsoft 55 (Goal: 100 MSFT shares)
Apple 100
Shopify 2
Alibaba 11
TSMC 10

Holdings outside Portfolio
2750 (4 loans 1k each on Dagobertinvest, of which I wrote down one, and another one is delayed. Was 7% second rank mortage).


Outstanding debt
House (0.5%) -141677.53
30M (3.9%) -4789.97
Tesla (4.375%) -14854.29
Margin (4.9%) -8000.00
Worth of house
~300k +- 50k

Overview of monthly payments (interest only)

Code: Select all

Rate     4.300%	4.375%	0.500%      4.900%
Interest 17.92	54.16	59.03        23.67

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:32 am
by Kingswood
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:19 am
Kingswood wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:44 am
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:20 am Realistically Diversification is only good if you don't know what you are doing. The pros like fund managers do this diversification even though they have degrees in finance and their entire job is to pick stocks and in the end they under-perform the index because they end up diluting their best ideas. Also doing this diversification makes their funds behave more like indexes as tracking error in relation to a index goes down the more stocks you add to your portfolio. In the end you are paying the 1-2% fees for closet index tracker because the fund manager do this diversification. So it entirely comes down to how well you know the stocks you are owning. Whether you can do a Discounted Cash Flow valuation of these stocks and justify owning them at the current price. If you can't do that then diversify.
You can not be more wrong.
Risk Parity is the reason why you diversify. If you posses more uncorrelated assets with same expected return, your total portfolio volatility will be lower. This demands to diversify across assets, stock market is only one component of the portfolio.
Discounted cashflow valuation is not only question of calculation and math, otherwise it would be too easy. You have there future expected cash flow included, which means your expectations can be wrong, as the future is uknown and you can not count on unexpected events.
Interesting we can agree to disagree on this. I personally find diversification to be a insurance that is not automatically a free lunch in that you give up your potential to be insanely rich in exchange for reduced potential of black swans. Whether that is worth-while depends on how much money you have.
I am however talking about reducing volatility and keeping the same expected return, but with lower volatility.
If you have an asset A with expected return 5% p.a. and volatility 10% and asset B with 2,5% p.a. and volatility 5% and there is 0 correlation between them, than you can leverage the asset B combine it with asset A and your expected return will remain the same (5% p.a.), however the volatility will decrease if you will rebalance your portfolio in time accordingly to risk parity. Increase the amount of uncorrelated assets to 6+ and you have solved the issue. Pure math which leads to fact, that you are moving to your target no matter what happens.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:52 am
by BeBH65
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:22 am
On what fundamental beliefs and strategy is your ownership of Tesla stock based on?
Tesla is years ahead in
- manufacturing
- full self driving and
- has the best engineers and a team devoted to quality
- is executing well
- a CEO with best track record: PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla
- a compelling business case
- close to 50% growth ahead
- is profitable and
- there are still people who believe this company is a joke. They haven't really looked into the financials, and don't get it.

Tesla is still in it's early innings.
- Model Y in Europe
- Energy business: Storage and Energy Arbitrage "Autobidder".

This company has so much room to grow. It's a bit expensive, yes, some growth is already priced in.
But this is not over. Investing in Tesla today is like investing into Amazon in 2016/2018. We'll see.
All of this is known by all investors, and these facts and expectations are already included in todays price.
Do you know something the other investors do not know and hence would not yet be included in todays price?

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:14 am
by herbert_21
BeBH65 I believe you are adhering to the efficient market hypothesis
"All expections of future growth is priced into the stock price"

Let's look into this chart:
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/ps_ratio

Does this look like TSLA is efficiently and fairly priced ? What has changed so that the price/sales ratio is so much higher today?

Efficient market hypothesis also says, every investor brings his expectations into the stock price. I am one of those investors who is not selling before Dec 21st, and not selling afterwards. Until then, speculators will make the price.

I have three cases for Tesla's future:
base case: 46% growth. In this case, stock price should go up to $600. I am fine with that.
bull base: FSD is widely accepted. I am also fine with that. I would make way more money if this happens.
bear case: P/S goes down to 4 and I'm still making money. I would not invest money if I thought different.

I also see where your hint is actually leading me to. Everything is already priced in. The problem is, if you thought so, you'd never bought Amazon because it was "too expensive" or "overvalued". But you would have not made a lot of $$$ on it.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:26 am
by KlangFool
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:14 am BeBH65 I believe you are adhering to the efficient market hypothesis
"All expections of future growth is priced into the stock price"

Let's look into this chart:
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/ps_ratio

Does this look like TSLA is efficiently and fairly priced ? What has changed so that the price/sales ratio is so much higher today?

Efficient market hypothesis also says, every investor brings his expectations into the stock price. I am one of those investors who is not selling before Dec 21st, and not selling afterwards. Until then, speculators will make the price.

I have three cases for Tesla's future:
base case: 46% growth. In this case, stock price should go up to $600. I am fine with that.
bull base: FSD is widely accepted. I am also fine with that. I would make way more money if this happens.
bear case: P/S goes down to 4 and I'm still making money. I would not invest money if I thought different.

I also see where your hint is actually leading me to. Everything is already priced in. The problem is, if you thought so, you'd never bought Amazon because it was "too expensive" or "overvalued". But you would have not made a lot of $$$ on it.

herbert_21,


1) As per the rule of 72, at 20% per year, TSLA's stock price has to go up to 4X to 8X in 10 years. Can any of your forecasts meet this goal?


2) A normal 60/40 portfolio returns about 7% per year, it doubles (2X) in 10 years.


KlangFool

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:43 am
by LittleGreenSoldiers
F150HD wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:42 am
My house is not on my land. I pay about $200 a month for it. Forever. But the loan was much less because of this.
this would deeply concern me personally on many levels.
This one really struck me too. Until I realized that I pay property tax on my land that I "own" forever. Which is way more than $200/month.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:38 pm
by wander
I have no comment on how you want to spend your money. Good luck by the way!!!

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:38 pm
by herbert_21
ARK Invest was a big TSLA bull from the beginning.
They continue to hold Tesla, with 10% of ARKK's Portfolio.

If ARK Invest buys a company's share, the expect 15% or more.
I hope this answers your question.

My 75 shares are up 5k in total.

This is more than interest and taxes for 10 years, even with those consumer-like interest rates. But I am not selling.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:44 pm
by herbert_21
wander wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:38 pm I have no comment on how you want to spend your money. Good luck by the way!!!
I will write a few.lines and I hope you don't find them offensive.

You write that you started investing in your 20s. Congrats on that, well done, seriously.
You write that you bought in iPhone 12. I bought the shares.
You write that you have a million or more. I don't.
I also invest into Amazon. These went very well so far.

Again, no offense intended. It's just that different investors have different goals.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:05 pm
by kimura king
Good luck Herbert. I bought Telsa before the split for around $1400, it split, rose to $2200, I sold at $2100. Wish I didn't sell it! I keep 95% or more of my portfolio in index funds.

I don't know what your goals are, or how things will work out with your approach. It will go one of two ways. A lot of the posters here are American's with over a million dollars invested. They are going to take a more reliable approach with such a sum of money, take slow and steady gains, and go with low-cost index funds. Never bear too much or too little risk.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:30 pm
by alpine_boglehead
Grüß dich herbert_21, fellow Austrian here.

You've already gotten responses from a lot of very knowledgeable people, with a combined knowledge of many lifetimes and tons of books. Consider heeding them.

It's speculation. It seems that you can't be cured of your obsession of speculating on Tesla.

The problem is, speculation takes a mental toll in both the success and the failure case. In the success case, you get overconfident, and make mistakes. In the failure case, you're in for pain. And all along the way you're likely checking the ticker multiple times a day every day. What if Tesla drops 70% before making a 1000% run. Will you stick to your plan?

I offer a simple alternative. No margin loan, no single stocks, just a broad market fund like VWRL (Vanguard FTSE All-World). You won't strike it rich, but you can build wealth in a manner that relies much less on luck.

I wish you the best of luck, and that in the case that you succeed with your daring plan you don't mistake the luck for skill.

Your loan is pretty expensive as others have remarked, it's likely an unsecured consumer loan.

degiro also has a Austrian branch, and offers margin loans at 1.25% (but you have to do taxes yourself - which seems to be a well-paid job for this difference in interest). On the other hand, your consumer loan is not callable - the margin loan is.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:29 pm
by herbert_21
Questions I would like to have been asked but haven't been asked here yet

- How much time did you invest in due diligence?

- Do you know John Bogle? Did you listen to his critique on ETFs and know why he was in favor of index funds?
- Why did the comittee not include Tesla earlier, even after 5 profitable quarters?
- Who sits it the comittee and how are decisions made?

Don't bet against Elon. This is an investment advice.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:37 pm
by MishkaWorries
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:29 pm
Don't bet against Elon. This is an investment advice.
I have to disagree with you on this. Musk appears to have certain mental health issues that have served him well as an entrepreneur. But as Tesla matures there will come a time (I think in the near future) when Musk will be forced out. Will Tesla be better or worse for the change?Management risk is always a concern when one is not diversified.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:40 pm
by herbert_21
alpine_boglehead wrote: degiro also has a Austrian branch, and offers margin loans at 1.25% (but you have to do taxes yourself - which seems to be a well-paid job for this difference in interest). On the other hand, your consumer loan is not callable - the margin loan is.
Is this a reliable broker? If there is high volatility, I need reliable access to my shares. I am considering repaying about 10k first, and then refinance all of it. Not being callable was the thing I had in mind as well when I took those loans. A month or two will cost me €100, and yes, I am considering shifting my tech and dividend stocks away from Flatex.

Owner of the company would be the same.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:43 pm
by herbert_21
the FANG stocks
A new abbreviation has been born:

FATMAN
Facebook, Alphabet, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, Nvidia

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:05 pm
by F150HD
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:43 pm
the FANG stocks
A new abbreviation has been born:

FATMAN
Facebook, Alphabet, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, Nvidia
FAMTAN?

double word score?

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:15 pm
by whodidntante
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:10 am
whodidntante wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:43 pm It's only 15k, so it doesn't really matter what you do. A total loss wouldn't hurt that badly, and a five bagger wouldn't change your life. Although I do question why you pay such a high interest rate when cheaper options exist.
Are you perhaps talking about futures? Options? Cheaper leverage?

Some asked why I posted this in Bogleheads Forum. Well, I came across viewtopic.php?f=10&t=5934&start=1450.

Here is one quote from @whodidntante
The lesson to me is to dial back the leverage. It's not difficult to avoid bustout if you have a decent income, and access to additional money, and you avoid high multiples of leverage. A lot of Bogleheads do this without even realizing it. They take low interest mortgages that they don't prepay, or buy cars with a low interest car loan in spite of owning hundreds of thousands in securities. That's leverage on your portfolio, all things being equal. It's a spending problem if you do it to buy a car or a house that is too expensive for you.

You can do the same with futures if you don't own a house, or if you do and you just want to increase risk. Also, right now, futures offer leverage at less than 1% borrowing cost. Good luck getting a mortgage that cheap. Rack up some ETFs and then apply modest leverage with futures contracts. This will almost certainly beat an unlevered portfolio over a lifetime. You can use higher multiples but at some point the risk of ruin becomes a legitimate concern.
Since you want to leverage a single stock, futures are not an option :wink:. You can buy deep ITM calls and, if desired, sell a put to decrease your cost of leverage. Or, you can buy TSLA on margin at IB. Or, you can get a cheaper consumer loan than the 4,3% you said you are paying. In the USA, I can borrow that amount at either 0% or 1,99% unsecured. I currently owe 25k at 0%.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:26 pm
by alpine_boglehead
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:40 pm
alpine_boglehead wrote: degiro also has a Austrian branch, and offers margin loans at 1.25% (but you have to do taxes yourself - which seems to be a well-paid job for this difference in interest). On the other hand, your consumer loan is not callable - the margin loan is.
Is this a reliable broker? If there is high volatility, I need reliable access to my shares. I am considering repaying about 10k first, and then refinance all of it. Not being callable was the thing I had in mind as well when I took those loans. A month or two will cost me €100, and yes, I am considering shifting my tech and dividend stocks away from Flatex.

Owner of the company would be the same.
Hard to predict reliability, I've personally had no issues with flatex (e.g. in the wild days of March 2020, everything worked fine (except the markets, the spreads on many ETFs were ridiculous)), don't know about degiro. You can have a look at various broker comparison/rating sites to get some picture.

If you "shift" your investments by selling, you'll incur capital gain taxes, unless you do a proper transfer. Flatex is IMO fine for just buying and holding (AFAIK the only broker in Austria which does taxes for you and has no AUM fees).

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:03 pm
by NewMoneyMustBeSmart
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:30 am
Well actually I am much younger than 20 years from 60. Counting from my current age it would be 39 years for me to go to 60. But the point still stands. For a guy who is 39 (referring to OP) the risk preferences will be vastly different from some-one who is 60 so it would not be wise to avoid taking some risk if the OP can afford to lose the money.
I am very sorry, but you are 21. You know almost nothing. Learn don't preach.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:26 am
by sublimelaconic
Sorry to hijack OP's thread but I just wanted to confirm:

The same "US estate tax rules" applied to ETFs also apply to individual stocks, right?
Since TSLA is a US company and my country does not have an estate tax treaty with the US, then I should not hold more than $60,000 of said company if I don't want my holdings to be subjected to 40% estate tax.
Note: I have no plans of buying individual stocks. I just wanted to confirm that my understanding is correct. :happy

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:44 am
by Anon9001
NewMoneyMustBeSmart wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:03 pm
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:30 am
Well actually I am much younger than 20 years from 60. Counting from my current age it would be 39 years for me to go to 60. But the point still stands. For a guy who is 39 (referring to OP) the risk preferences will be vastly different from some-one who is 60 so it would not be wise to avoid taking some risk if the OP can afford to lose the money.
I am very sorry, but you are 21. You know almost nothing. Learn don't preach.
I am very sorry but you are all random strangers who I don't know real name of. Why should I trust you people any more than I should trust average person on Reddit,Youtube? I would be more comfortable "learning" if this was not a anonymous forum in which anyone with no qualifications can post.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:47 am
by NewMoneyMustBeSmart
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:44 am I am very sorry but you are all random strangers who I don't know real name of. Why should I trust you people any more than I should trust average person on Reddit,Youtube? I would be more comfortable "learning" if this was not a anonymous forum in which anyone with no qualifications can post.
That's a very insightful response, Anon9001; thank you.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:53 am
by TedSwippet
sublimelaconic wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:26 am The same "US estate tax rules" applied to ETFs also apply to individual stocks, right?
Since TSLA is a US company and my country does not have an estate tax treaty with the US, then I should not hold more than $60,000 of said company if I don't want my holdings to be subjected to 40% estate tax.
Right.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:27 am
by Valuethinker
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:44 am
NewMoneyMustBeSmart wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:03 pm
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:30 am
Well actually I am much younger than 20 years from 60. Counting from my current age it would be 39 years for me to go to 60. But the point still stands. For a guy who is 39 (referring to OP) the risk preferences will be vastly different from some-one who is 60 so it would not be wise to avoid taking some risk if the OP can afford to lose the money.
I am very sorry, but you are 21. You know almost nothing. Learn don't preach.
I am very sorry but you are all random strangers who I don't know real name of. Why should I trust you people any more than I should trust average person on Reddit,Youtube? I would be more comfortable "learning" if this was not a anonymous forum in which anyone with no qualifications can post.
You realise you have made a logical error, there?

You are "learning by Authority". It's only true if an important person tells you it? Then why spend time here?

(BTW a lot of the people here are not anonymous. They know each other in person. They have public personas - Larry Swedroe in particular when he posted here, but many others).

Well, we all draw references from the web. I am pretty sure, for example, that you haven't read all of Asworth Damodaran's pages (not to worry, there are thousands). That would be well repaid.

But I would also read all of William Bernstein's writings on investments (he posts here, too). Bernstein is a consultant neurologist, who then learned about investing. So like poster Nisiprius here, he brought a combination of high intelligence and no previous background in finance - which means he asks "obvious" questions and comes up with subtle answers.

BTW re qualifications. Besides all the PhD types we have here in physics & engineering etc, we also have quite a few CFAs, & even people who work in the financial services industry. It really is an amazingly well-informed and insightful group of people.

Grok87 is a CFA for example. I won't "out" other CFA charter holders here -- they can do that, themselves ;-).

In your intellectual journey, I would highly recommend the CFA exams - you will learn a lot.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:54 am
by 4nursebee
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:27 am
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:44 am
NewMoneyMustBeSmart wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:03 pm
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:30 am
Well actually I am much younger than 20 years from 60. Counting from my current age it would be 39 years for me to go to 60. But the point still stands. For a guy who is 39 (referring to OP) the risk preferences will be vastly different from some-one who is 60 so it would not be wise to avoid taking some risk if the OP can afford to lose the money.
I am very sorry, but you are 21. You know almost nothing. Learn don't preach.
I am very sorry but you are all random strangers who I don't know real name of. Why should I trust you people any more than I should trust average person on Reddit,Youtube? I would be more comfortable "learning" if this was not a anonymous forum in which anyone with no qualifications can post.
You realise you have made a logical error, there?

You are "learning by Authority". It's only true if an important person tells you it? Then why spend time here?

(BTW a lot of the people here are not anonymous. They know each other in person. They have public personas - Larry Swedroe in particular when he posted here, but many others).

Well, we all draw references from the web. I am pretty sure, for example, that you haven't read all of Asworth Damodaran's pages (not to worry, there are thousands). That would be well repaid.

But I would also read all of William Bernstein's writings on investments (he posts here, too). Bernstein is a consultant neurologist, who then learned about investing. So like poster Nisiprius here, he brought a combination of high intelligence and no previous background in finance - which means he asks "obvious" questions and comes up with subtle answers.

BTW re qualifications. Besides all the PhD types we have here in physics & engineering etc, we also have quite a few CFAs, & even people who work in the financial services industry. It really is an amazingly well-informed and insightful group of people.

Grok87 is a CFA for example. I won't "out" other CFA charter holders here -- they can do that, themselves ;-).

In your intellectual journey, I would highly recommend the CFA exams - you will learn a lot.


Point taken.

However it is a logical thing to think, believe, opine, and one that I agree with. I don't know Jack about Swedroe (BH pun!). People do not list their resumes with their profiles here, one has to wade thru the crap and make up their own mind.

Your argument could almost be taken as: Trust the OP, take out a mortgage and buy TSLA on margin.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:24 am
by Valuethinker
4nursebee wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:54 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:27 am
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:44 am
NewMoneyMustBeSmart wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:03 pm
Anon9001 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:30 am
Well actually I am much younger than 20 years from 60. Counting from my current age it would be 39 years for me to go to 60. But the point still stands. For a guy who is 39 (referring to OP) the risk preferences will be vastly different from some-one who is 60 so it would not be wise to avoid taking some risk if the OP can afford to lose the money.
I am very sorry, but you are 21. You know almost nothing. Learn don't preach.
I am very sorry but you are all random strangers who I don't know real name of. Why should I trust you people any more than I should trust average person on Reddit,Youtube? I would be more comfortable "learning" if this was not a anonymous forum in which anyone with no qualifications can post.
You realise you have made a logical error, there?

You are "learning by Authority". It's only true if an important person tells you it? Then why spend time here?

(BTW a lot of the people here are not anonymous. They know each other in person. They have public personas - Larry Swedroe in particular when he posted here, but many others).

Well, we all draw references from the web. I am pretty sure, for example, that you haven't read all of Asworth Damodaran's pages (not to worry, there are thousands). That would be well repaid.

But I would also read all of William Bernstein's writings on investments (he posts here, too). Bernstein is a consultant neurologist, who then learned about investing. So like poster Nisiprius here, he brought a combination of high intelligence and no previous background in finance - which means he asks "obvious" questions and comes up with subtle answers.

BTW re qualifications. Besides all the PhD types we have here in physics & engineering etc, we also have quite a few CFAs, & even people who work in the financial services industry. It really is an amazingly well-informed and insightful group of people.

Grok87 is a CFA for example. I won't "out" other CFA charter holders here -- they can do that, themselves ;-).

In your intellectual journey, I would highly recommend the CFA exams - you will learn a lot.


Point taken.

However it is a logical thing to think, believe, opine, and one that I agree with. I don't know Jack about Swedroe (BH pun!). People do not list their resumes with their profiles here, one has to wade thru the crap and make up their own mind.

Your argument could almost be taken as: Trust the OP, take out a mortgage and buy TSLA on margin.
I think I muddied my points ... wasn't clear.

Anon9001 basically said "you are all strangers on the internet, why should I listen to you?"

(I was both amused and bemused by his reference to posters are "very old" - I misread his age as 39, but instead he is 19? )

But he then implied that of course if we were Known Names that would be different.

So I pointed out (and this is where I mixed my arguments) that 1. there are plenty of Names that do post here 2). there's an enormous depth of knowledge and experience here, and (implicitly) that some posters are better educated in finance than others (whilst noting that 2 of the best posters - Nisiprius & William Bernstein (in his investment writings) are self-educated in finance).

Anyone who consults these boards would be foolish to ignore the collective wisdom & experience. My investing "memory" goes back to helping my father with his stock portfolio in the 1970s and my own investing since about 1980. Others go back much further than that. But there are also published authors in finance on these boards.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:04 am
by avecmoi
Am a pretty big Tesla bull. We first invested after I fell in love with my model 3 at end of 2018. A few months later, we first bought a few shares at around $300 before selling all at around $700 to lock in the gains. We made a big bet of ~4% of our investable assets earlier this year after TSLA stock lost about half its value (bought ~$450 prior to split), and currently have ~15% our investable assets in TSLA. I am waiting for day 366 to sell and/or possibly donate half our TSLA shares. Will buy back if price comes down enough. If it continues to go up, even better but at least in lock in some gains.

I believe in Tesla and Elon Musk. However, Elon tweeted that he thought "Tesla stock price is too high imo" on May 1st of this year when the stock closed at $701 pre-split (or $140.26) currently. Do you believe things have changed so much in the past 6 months so that TSLA is now worth 3.5x as much? TSLA is now worth more than Toyota, Honda and Big 3 legacy US Automakers combined.

Tesla's success has caused so many legacy automakers to follow them in the BEV space. Many start up BEV entrants from US and China are trying to get in on the action as well. Why do you think China allowed Tesla to make a gigafactory there and gave Tesla a tax break?https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/02/business ... index.html
Are you concerned that Tesla technology will someday get introduced into Nio, BYD or Xpeng? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/busi ... nsfer.html

Most here espouse the Boglehead philosophy of slow, relatively steady gains through diversified assets. Some people win the lottery, others do really well putting $$$ on a few stocks and hitting it big. Good luck OP, seems like you made your decision. No guts, no glory right? But if you were my friend or family, I would talk with you over dinner advising you to not do this unless your risk tolerance is in the top 0.1% of investors.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:30 am
by ohboy!
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:24 am
ohboy! wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:26 pm I can never tell if these threads are trolling or not. Speculation and leverage. The more of this I see the more I think it’s some sort of top. If govt sends out more trucks of money maybe we can pump it further. OP, have you seen wallstreetbets? You can speed up your gamble with options.
Thanks. Yes, I know wallstreetbets. I also looked up your profile. You cashed out in March. What where your reasons? Why did you believe you could time the market? Were you able to cut your losses? Did you get back in already? I am curious.
I cashed out in March? News to me.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:58 am
by Ramjet
OP, when are you adding TQQQ to your portfolio? :twisted:

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:19 pm
by herbert_21
Hi,

I'v read Larry Swedroe's book on factor investing. He's cool.

Someone had a question. Let me rephrase the question. Tesla went 5x since he sold it. Is this a reason to sell or to buy?
Well, I am not a stock analyst. If you would ask me for a professional reliable stock analyst, I'd suggest to follow Gary Black on Twitter.

Now, to the numbers. Below is a Table with Year, an average sales price that goes down, which is multiplied to Sales.
We can then compare the market cap, and ask ourselves: What is the market pricing in (already) today?
For a growth company, the only thing that matters and it should be judged by, is revenue. And revenue comes from vehicle sales.
So let's not focus on profitability, gross margins, but look at Vehicle Sales only.

Code: Select all

 Year	Vehicles  Price	Sales (Bn$)	4x Sales 8x Sales 11x 10xSales 15xSales 17xSales 18x    20x             Factor Growth
2020	500 000		45000	23	90	180	248	225	338	383	405	450		1,46	46%
2021	730 000		44250	32	129	258	355	323	485	549	581	646		1,46	46%
2022	1 065 800	43500	46	185	371	510	464	695	788	835	927		1,46	46%
2023	1 556 068	42750	67	266	532	732	665	998	1131	1197	1330		1,46	46%
2024	2 271 859	42000	95	382	763	1050	954	1431	1622	1718	1908		1,46	46%
2025	3 316 915	41250	137	547	1095	1505	1368	2052	2326	2463	2736		1,46	46%
2026	4 842 695	40500	196	785	1569	2157	1961	2942	3334	3530	3923		1,46	46%
2027	7 070 335	40000	283	1131	2263	3111	2828	4242	4808	5091	5656		1,46	46%
2028	10 322 689	40000	413	1652	3303	4542	4129	6194	7019	7432	8258		1,46	46%
2029	15 071 126	40000	603	2411	4823	6631	6028	9043	10248	10851	12057		1,46	46%
2030	22 003 844	40000	880	3521	7041	9682	8802	13202	14963	15843	17603		1,46	46%
														
														
 Year	Vehicles  Price	Sales (Bn$)	4x Sales 8x Sales 11x 10xSales 15xSales 17xSales 18x    20x             Factor Growth
2020	500 000		45000	23	90	180	248	225	338	383	405	450		1,52	52%
2021	760 000		44250	34	135	269	370	336	504	572	605	673		1,52	52%
2022	1 155 200	43500	50	201	402	553	503	754	854	905	1005		1,52	52%
2023	1 755 904	42750	75	300	601	826	751	1126	1276	1351	1501		1,52	52%
2024	2 668 974	42000	112	448	897	1233	1121	1681	1906	2018	2242		1,52	52%
2025	4 056 841	41250	167	669	1339	1841	1673	2510	2845	3012	3347		1,52	52%
2026	6 166 398	40500	250	999	1998	2747	2497	3746	4246	4495	4995		1,52	52%
2027	9 372 925	40000	375	1500	2999	4124	3749	5624	6374	6749	7498		1,52	52%
2028	14 246 845	40000	570	2279	4559	6269	5699	8548	9688	10258	11397		1,52	52%
2029	21 655 205	40000	866	3465	6930	9528	8662	12993	14726	15592	17324		1,52	52%
2030	32 915 911	40000	1317	5267	10533	14483	13166	19750	22383	23699	26333		1,52	52%												

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:23 pm
by herbert_21
So you can read the table in any way you like.

Possibly your argument is "based on 2020, the market cap is 20xSales which is simply too high".

Well, go into the table, and look what 1mn vehicle would mean with a 10xSales in 2022 would mean. Hint: That's exactly today's market cap.

Yes, the valuation is somewhat into the future. But even if the valuation drops to 4xSales, you would still not lose money until 2028.

So, the market prices in the high growth.

If you believe 46% or 52% in ridiculously high, you can either look at historic rate (which was 60% since 2014). Or I could point at the two factories in building and those that can be expanded. I could also say: If Elon Musk and Tesla reach their CEOs goal to have 20mn vehicles on the road by 2030, and listen to earnings call, 50% is a reasonable number. In the past it wasn't a good idea to bet against Elon. I believe same is true in the future.

With growth stock it's the same problem as with Covid. People just don't understand exponential growth. They are using all kinds of flawed logic. One kind of this logic is to use P/E for a growth stock. We need to look at least 2 years out, because this is the growth we already know of.

Let's say the sentiment settles, and we see 8xSales valuation in 2025.
Then the market cap would be 1095B. Tesla can sell $20bn of shares, it won't make a big difference. By the way, this is the number that roughly equals the bull case of Adams from Morgan Stanley.

Image

So I have no idea whether the valuation will be 8x, or 10x, or 20x Sales in 2025. The only thing I know for sure is: the stock price will be much higher than today. Ladies and gentlemen, thank your for your attention.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:39 pm
by herbert_21
While it's possibly unbearable for the bears, here are the numbers using 55 and 60% growth. Let's revisit the numbers when Tesla has sold 1mn vehicles in 1 year and calculate the growth rate then.

Image

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:49 pm
by happyisland
Friendly advice to the OP: if you haven't already, spend some quality time reading through the entirety of the Bogleheads wiki, and maybe a Bogleheads book (if you haven't already). Both of those resources will present strong evidence that stock picking is not a good idea.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:12 pm
by Kingswood
You basicly presented nothing new.Your calculations just show, that the stock is priced on 2028 levels of car production,given the premise, that your share wont be diluted by issuing new stock. Apart from that - exponential growth works well with the low numbers (so its possible for small and mid cap) but it starts to bounce to limits when getting to big volumes. Which apparently YOU do not understand as you are calculating the numbers without context same as people catched into ponzi schemes on too low level.

Lets ask a simple question, shall we? How many cars (no matter the producer) is annually sold on the globe? around 65mil vehicles, one third is sold in China, where Tesla has quite agressive competition. A large portion of these will not be electric vehicles even in 2030 due to infrastructure (you can i.e. forget about having much of sales in India and Brazil, where 5mil cars is sold annually)... What you are basically talking about is, that Tesla will have almost monopoly on car industry market in 10 years. Good joke.

Keep dreaming about your spreadsheets.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:26 pm
by anon_investor
I sure hope the OP provides regular updates. I want to see how this plays out. I am still very sad the OP from the sell everything in Feb thread right before the crash never provided a real update.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:32 pm
by herbert_21
Only numbers until 2025 make sense, the other's don't.
I forgot to add that comment. A small percentage makes a huge difference.

Point of argument was made. I believe the valuation is much less ridiculuos than a lot of people still believe.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:00 pm
by Schlabba
herbert_21 wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:32 pm Only numbers until 2025 make sense, the other's don't.
I forgot to add that comment. A small percentage makes a huge difference.

Point of argument was made. I believe the valuation is much less ridiculuos than a lot of people still believe.
You don't need to convince people here. You asked for an opinion, you got it. Its your money, you can do whatever you want.

Did you have a look at my recommendation of "The little book of common sense investing" by John Bogle ? Then you can understand pretty much all the arguments on why people here believe indexing will give you a better future return, so you have both sides of the story.

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:13 pm
by herbert_21
ohboy! wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:30 am
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:24 am
ohboy! wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:26 pm I can never tell if these threads are trolling or not. Speculation and leverage. The more of this I see the more I think it’s some sort of top. If govt sends out more trucks of money maybe we can pump it further. OP, have you seen wallstreetbets? You can speed up your gamble with options.
Thanks. Yes, I know wallstreetbets. I also looked up your profile. You cashed out in March. What where your reasons? Why did you believe you could time the market? Were you able to cut your losses? Did you get back in already? I am curious.
I cashed out in March? News to me.
Sorry, I got that one wrong. I just shouldn't have written that comment.

My apologies.