Retiree Portfolio Model

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jacksprat
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun May 09, 2010 3:33 pm

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby jacksprat » Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:03 pm

It's obvious that a lot of work has gone into this. Thank you Bigfoot48

For those that are using the results of this model, how long did it take you to feel comfortable with the results ?

I'm in no way being critical , nor am I questioning the accuracy of the model -- I'm saying that with all the input(s) - and output - I don't feel confident with my results... While the instructions and notes do help - up to a point- there are a lot of ways I think I could have input inaccurate data or be interpreting the results incorrectly and never be the wiser. :shock:

Suggestion: maybe a 'simple' and 'advanced' mode would help ?

On second thought, if a user can't master the 'advanced' mode, then perhaps they are not a candidate for attempting to be self directed in retirement planning . Any thoughts appreciated.

WildBill
Posts: 176
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:47 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby WildBill » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:16 pm

Howdy

I used it and it is an excellent tool. Senor Bigfoot has done a great piece of work.

I used it enough on various scenarios and cross checked with other applications and methods sufficiently to be very confident in the results. It is superb for scenario analysis.

Having said that, the chief source of uncertainty is of course your own input variables - growth rates for asset classes, and inflation rates and longevity etc.

I do not see that a beginners and advanced model split to be of much value. You can run simple scenarios with by minimizing the range of inputs.

My 2 centavos

Happy scenario planning

W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid

perrywinkle
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:21 am

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby perrywinkle » Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:03 pm

Superb work and very useful. Thank you.

In doing a lot of cross checking I believe I have found a bug. On both the Full Case and Base Case, Line 194 is supposed to calculate the Federal Tax Exempt Income which is subject to State Tax. The formula refers to cell F$157, which is the non-taxable earnings in taxable accounts vs. F$156 which is the Tax-exempt investment earnings. I found this as I have a large amount of muni / tax-exempt income which was not showing up in the state AGI and hence was not taxed. Perhaps I have not understood the intent of the items on lines 156 and 157, but when I edited the formula the numbers were as I expected, so that's what I am using.

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Peter Foley
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Location: Lake Wobegon

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby Peter Foley » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:13 pm

jacksprat

I had to run at least a half dozen scenarios to gain comfort with the output. I ran similar scenarios in the RPM and i-orp. While the two calculators are different and have different purposes, RPM is definitely superior when it comes to larger scale Roth conversions. By larger scale I mean conversions which, if done per the i-orp calculator would have resulted in more taxes paid and a lower net worth at the 20 year mark. I used the RPM model for my Roth conversions this year and expect to do so next year - next year likely being my last year for Roth conversions.

I think the i-orp output is a bit clearer but perhaps that is because it is more limited. I did study the outputs of the i-orp tab in Bigfoot's model.

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BigFoot48
Posts: 2460
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:47 am
Location: Arizona

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby BigFoot48 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:49 am

perrywinkle wrote:In doing a lot of cross checking I believe I have found a bug.


You did indeed! In the example data this resulted in about of $2,000 different ending portfolio balance as the tax-exempt asset earning were close to the estimate of non-taxed amounts included in annual earnings from the taxable account, but as you noticed if you have a significant tax-exempt amount the error becomes obvious.

Thanks for reporting this. The model has been updated but it may not be worth the effort for most users to update unless they have a significant tax-exempt portfolio balance.

Speaking of which, a very smart Boglehead has been working on a macro that transfers all the setup entries from an older version to a new version, eliminating this tedious effort. It works like a charm and it will be included in the next release, whenever that happens.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

Zephavest
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 9:09 am

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby Zephavest » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:20 pm

BigFoot48 wrote:
perrywinkle wrote:Speaking of which, a very smart Boglehead has been working on a macro that transfers all the setup entries from an older version to a new version, eliminating this tedious effort. It works like a charm and it will be included in the next release, whenever that happens.


This is great to hear, THANK YOU to the "very smart Boglehead" who is helping on this and of course thank you to BigFoot for his continued excellent work. I can't wait to see the release that will include the new transfer macro.

GeoGibb24
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon May 15, 2017 9:53 am

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby GeoGibb24 » Mon May 15, 2017 9:57 am

Is there any write-up on how to use the RPM?

smitcat
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:51 am

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby smitcat » Mon May 15, 2017 10:44 am

"Is there any write-up on how to use the RPM?"

I hate to admit - but I agree with you.
I have this model filled out about 75% but there are some inputs I am unsure what it is exactly asking for.
Knowing that garbage in = garbage out I am hesitant to complete it.
So being too ignorant to know has me stumped....

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BigFoot48
Posts: 2460
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:47 am
Location: Arizona

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby BigFoot48 » Mon May 15, 2017 11:04 am

I'm sorry about the difficulty in using the model and it's one of my goals to improve that. In the meantime, please note that every input factor has a cell description in the title or entry explaining it, and every section heading, such as Portfolio Balances, has a description. There's also a description of how a typical retiree uses the model at the far left cell of each section heading.

On the Readme page there's a section on how to use the model:
Quick Start Instructions and Model Overview

1. Enter the values for your personal data, portfolio amounts, and estimates for earnings rates, inflation and other factors. Be sure to replace all the Example data with your own, or use the macro button to automatically clear the example data. Hover over cells with red triangles to see comments, instructions and help.

more..

Example of instructions on Setup page - Taxable Account Beginning Balance:
Enter your current or forecast starting balance for your taxable accounts. Include brokerage, savings, credit union, etc. accounts.

Withdrawals are not subject to income tax.
Last edited by BigFoot48 on Tue May 16, 2017 12:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

ubermax
Posts: 1259
Joined: Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:19 pm
Location: Connecticut

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby ubermax » Mon May 15, 2017 4:00 pm

BigFoot48 , you created this great tool and have apparently been tweaking/updating it for 5 years now , wow ; just curious do you have a succession plan or is it the intent/desire that users will download the spreadsheet and do their own maintenance ??? or maybe this is an enjoyable enduring hobby for you ??

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BigFoot48
Posts: 2460
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:47 am
Location: Arizona

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Postby BigFoot48 » Mon May 15, 2017 4:23 pm

Thanks ubermax. I intend to continue to maintain and tweak the model as a retirement hobby for the foreseeable future, but I may follow Simba some day and the model may be adopted by a new manager or drift off into oblivion.

Now, back to my new hobby, genealogy research!
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser


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