Beware of experts making predictions...

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tbradnc
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Beware of experts making predictions...

Post by tbradnc » Thu May 26, 2011 6:15 am

Money quote: "Even if you predicted the market flawlessly from year-end 2003 to September 2008, all your work would have been for naught if you failed to predict the sell-off that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware ... beforebell

I was rather disappointed when I got to page 2 and he started talking about Quadrix stock-rating system he developed for Dow Theory Forecasts ...

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Random Musings
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Location: Pennsylvania

Post by Random Musings » Thu May 26, 2011 9:48 am

The author of that article is Richard Moroney who:
edits the Dow Theory Forecasts and Upside investment newsletters and is the chief investment officer for Horizon Investment Services.
To summarize the article, he's basically saying, "hey, don't listen to them, listen to me".

Just another financial huckster plugging his wares.

RM

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CrankyManager
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Location: Nebraska

Post by CrankyManager » Thu May 26, 2011 9:55 am

In one sentence he uses both "predict" and "prediction."
"Does not Dionysius seem to have made it sufficiently clear that there can be nothing happy for the person over whom some fear always looms?" -- Cicero

matt
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Re: Beware of experts making predictions...

Post by matt » Thu May 26, 2011 10:36 am

Even if you predicted the market flawlessly from year-end 2003 to September 2008, all your work would have been for naught if you failed to predict the sell-off that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers.
I have no idea what it means. Do you? It sure sounds like he's saying that not predicting the market decline after the Lehman bankruptcy pretty much guaranteed to wipe out all past successes, no matter how well you had done before. Seems like a lot of bunk to me. In fact, I know it is because I did not predict the decline following the Lehman bankruptcy and I came out of it quite well.

This guy is just trying to sell his newsletters and he cooked up a cool-sounding but meaningless idea to convince you to buy.

Beantown85
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Post by Beantown85 » Thu May 26, 2011 10:49 am

"Beware of experts making predictions..." isn't limited to just this field.

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