Is $4M enough?, age:40, valedictorian to burnout and outdated, can I retire? Nice story inside.

[sharukh]

Hi,

I have read a story about the young boy who goes to a farm and was assigned a work to do it in a week.
Here is the catch: If the boy do it early, boy can take the rest of the week off and also get double or triple the pay based on how early the boy completes the work.

A similar task/offer for us is reaching FIRE number. We get to quit working after reaching FIRE number, not sure how to relate to getting paid more if we reach FIRE early.

I am burned out and outdated in skills. Not able to encourage myself to upskill or even do the needed minimum work.
due to
1. burnout
2. unclear path to upskill. (Internal tools and no good documentation)
3. Expectations of fast delivery, which I see other people, especially younger people of say age around 30 are able to do and deliver well, while with my best attempts I couldn't even reach 25% of their work at the same amount of time. This situation started only recently in mid 2024 due to market needing different skill sets and what I used to know is commoditized or outsourced.

Age Me: 40, DW:35(SAHM)
Kids: 2 kids under age 10
State: NJ
Monthly expenses: $10k ($6k for house and $4k for other expenses)
Can cut down to $7k by moving to a smaller house.($3k for house and $4k for other expenses)
All that money is just bogleheads 3 fund portfolio. It needs to be used for anything like kids education to health insurance
It is all just one pot of money in taxable and retirement broker accounts. No house. We rent.

DW is ok with any choice I make. Both of us prefer to pursue a house for some stability in life and have a better lifestyle compared with a rental. If I retire, I will have to continue to rent a little longer. We are ok with that too.

Thank you for your time.

[alex_686]

What tax bracket would you be in?

I am ball-parking 3% annual spending assuming on the low side plus taxes.

For myself it is barely doable. You would to cut back a fair amount. For example, I am not seeing a college fund.

Here is the big rub. Nobody knows the future. If there is a market downturn at the start of your retirement your skunked. If you have a major emergency your skunked.

I would like a thicker cushion.

[alfaspider]

Mathematically, it works. $120k a year is a 3% withdrawal rate assuming everything is investable. The question is what would you do instead?

[id0ntkn0wjack]

4% over 30 years is Bill Bengen's rule of thumb for a safe withdrawal rate; so $4mm x .04 = $160k/yr. plus an annual inflation adjustment.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Safe_withdrawal_rates

However, you are likely to have some significant lumpy expenses due to your children's ages (college, cars, weddings, house down payment, etc).

Perhaps an alternate approach would be to pursue a career transition to allow you to utilize your skillset in a less stressful environment:

https://thejobhopper.substack.com/p/fre ... dium=email

[Cecelio]

What does DW think? Maybe DW would like to go back to work. Would you like to be a SAH parent? Is DW OK with moving to a LCOL area or a smaller house? 9-year-old is young enough to not blame all their life problems on the downsize if you do it now. 10 is iffy.

Do your expenses include taxes? Health care if not working? Unexpected incidentals (cars, house)?

How have you lasted this long at your job if your productivity is 25% of peers? Stay in it a few more years if you can.

Your 4 mil may shrink...

[smitcat]

Hi,

I have read a story about the young boy who goes to a farm and was assigned a work to do it in a week.
Here is the catch: If the boy do it early, boy can take the rest of the week off and also get double or triple the pay based on how early the boy completes the work.

A similar task/offer for us is reaching FIRE number. We get to quit working after reaching FIRE number, not sure how to relate to getting paid more if we reach FIRE early.

I am burned out and outdated in skills. Not able to encourage myself to upskill or even do the needed minimum work.
due to
1. burnout
2. unclear path to upskill. (Internal tools and no good documentation)
3. Expectations of fast delivery, which I see other people, especially younger people of say age around 30 are able to do and deliver well, while with my best attempts I couldn't even reach 25% of their work at the same amount of time.

Age Me: 40, DW:35(SAHM)
Kids: 9 and 3
State: NJ
Monthly expenses: $10k ($6k for house and $4k for other expenses)
Can cut down to $7k by moving to a smaller house.($3k for house and $4k for other expenses)

Thank you for your time.

Fantastic savings amounts at an early age for both of you. There are so many things that either or both of you can do moving forward. This amount of savings makes it much easier to consider just about any path forward with thousands of possibilities to choose from. Take some time in this new year and see what type of life really appeals to you - then figure out the best way to get the most out of your best plans.
Retiring completely for both of you is not likely near the top 10 choices.

[deanmoriarty]

Perspective: edit the post to pretend you have $10M (or $15M), and you'll still get most members tell you not to retire at 40. You’ll also find several (most?) who’d tell you not to retire even if you didn’t have dependents, in addition to the $10M, because of “purpose”, “opportunity cost”, “market risks”, etc.

Whether such advice is pure wisdom or simply a foolish projection of other people’s fears and demons is for you to decide.

[J295]

Good of you to acknowledge burnout and search for solutions.

Retirement is one solution. There are others. Also keep in mind that if you make a change (say it is retirement), you can still generate income and otherwise adjust as needed.

Retired 12 years ago at age 53 — left my profession in peak earning years — knew it was right for me then and now

Good luck

[alex_686]

4% over 30 years is Bill Bengen's rule of thumb for a safe withdrawal rate; so $4mm x .04 = $160k/yr. plus an annual inflation adjustment.

A note on this - this is a very simplistic and conservative rule. Historically about 1/2 the time you wind up with more money, inflation adjusted, then you stared with

So I am of two minutes minds on this. Maybe the OP isn’t super conservative when it comes to risk. On the flip side, high valuations suggest lower than historical averages for returns. So there is a chance that the OP will fall short ay short over a 40 to 50 time horizon.

[HomeStretch]

… I am burned out and outdated in skills. Not able to encourage myself to upskill or even do the needed minimum work. …

I know your question is *if* $4 million is enough to retire. But based on this sentence, you may be a layoff candidate. So consider reframing the question for yourself - can you live on a reasonable withdrawal from your $4 million portfolio even if you have to make changes to downscale expenses? If not, time to come up with Plan B…. how to reduce expenses or how to replace income in another job whether it’s in the same industry or another.

[ScubaHogg]

I’m dying to know why “valedictorian” was needed in the subject line…

[tibbitts]

DW is ok with any choice I make. Both of us prefer to pursue a house for some stability in life and have a better lifestyle compared with a rental. If I retire, I will have to continue to rent a little longer. We are ok with that too.

You should explain this. Are you tied to where you live now and a house there is expensive? How will that improve over time if you retire?

[Feldman]

I’m dying to know why “valedictorian” was needed in the subject line…

I think it gives valuable context regarding personality and work ethic. I don't have a problem with it.

[sharukh]

I’m dying to know why “valedictorian” was needed in the subject line…

I think it gives valuable context regarding personality and work ethic. I don't have a problem with it.

Yes, thank you. That was the intention.

[cmr79]

You would have enough to retire on $4M if your monthly expenses have some flexibility, as you suggest. But what would you retire to? If your current skillset is best suited to something that your industry is outsourcing, maybe there is an opportunity for some contract work so that you aren't 100% retired and have extra cushion for the aforementioned lumpy expenses that will come with the kids aging, but also something that will keep you occupied and engaged and give other options down the road if that degree of retirement doesn't suit you at 40...

[smitcat]

4% over 30 years is Bill Bengen's rule of thumb for a safe withdrawal rate; so $4mm x .04 = $160k/yr. plus an annual inflation adjustment.

A note on this - this is a very simplistic and conservative rule. Historically about 1/2 the time you wind up with more money, inflation adjusted, then you stared with

So I am of two minutes minds on this. Maybe the OP isn’t super conservative when it comes to risk. On the flip side, high valuations suggest lower than historical averages for returns. So there is a chance that the OP will fall short ay short over a 40 to 50 time horizon.

If you choose to use the studies general observations the rule of thumb at 4% and 30 years is about 99% success (75/25 AA)
The same studies will drop the success rate to about 93% for 40 years and 88% for 50 years. (75/25 AA)
Current ages of the OP's are 40 and 35.

[CletusCaddy]

I think it gives valuable context regarding personality and work ethic. I don't have a problem with it.

Yes, thank you. That was the intention.

An intention that confused me. Wouldn’t a former valedictorian have the drive to figure out how to continue being productive rather than throwing in the towel at the first sign of difficulty?

[CletusCaddy]

A note on this - this is a very simplistic and conservative rule. Historically about 1/2 the time you wind up with more money, inflation adjusted, then you stared with

So I am of two minutes minds on this. Maybe the OP isn’t super conservative when it comes to risk. On the flip side, high valuations suggest lower than historical averages for returns. So there is a chance that the OP will fall short ay short over a 40 to 50 time horizon.

If you choose to use the studies general observations the rule of thumb at 4% and 30 years is about 99% success (75/25 AA)
The same studies will drop the success rate to about 93% for 40 years and 88% for 50 years. (75/25 AA)
Current ages of the OP's are 40 and 35.

Why is the 1% chance of failure more relevant than the 50% chance of having more money than you started with?

I probably have a 1% chance of dying in the next year, should I live as if that was definitely going to happen?

[sharukh]

Yes, thank you. That was the intention.

An intention that confused me. Wouldn’t a former valedictorian have the drive to figure out how to continue being productive rather than throwing in the towel at the first sign of difficulty?

Well said. My reason is also age. a.k.a. lifestage. What one could do amazingly well at 30 and single, cannot be done so well at 40 with young kids. The burn out: How much ever I do, it feels like not enough.

I see that I am giving excuses. Will work on resolving this. Atleast will look for a less stressful job that has a relatively small churn in skill set needed YoY like a 1040 tax filer.

Thank you.

[CletusCaddy]

An intention that confused me. Wouldn’t a former valedictorian have the drive to figure out how to continue being productive rather than throwing in the towel at the first sign of difficulty?

Well said. My reason is also age. a.k.a. lifestage. What one could do amazingly well at 30 and single, cannot be done so well at 40 with young kids. The burn out: How much ever I do, it feels like not enough.

I see that I am giving excuses. Will work on resolving this. Atleast will look for a less stressful job that has a relatively small churn in skill set needed YoY like a 1040 tax filer.

Thank you.

One of the first things they teach you in cognitive behavioral therapy is to identify the mental distortions that drive one to anxiety and depression. One of these is all-or-nothing thinking.

Best of luck to you in your journey.

[ScubaHogg]

I think it gives valuable context regarding personality and work ethic. I don't have a problem with it.

Yes, thank you. That was the intention.

I never would have questioned the work ethic of someone who amassed $4M by age 40

To the OP, go plug it all into TPAWplanner.com and look at the various spending paths to see if it satisfies you

[AB609]

It sounds like you probably have enough to retire but I don't think that is necessarily best for you long term. I would look at leaving your current job for something in another field (maybe less pay and part time) that my be less stressful and give you a sense of purpose.

[alex_686]

If you choose to use the studies general observations the rule of thumb at 4% and 30 years is about 99% success (75/25 AA)
The same studies will drop the success rate to about 93% for 40 years and 88% for 50 years. (75/25 AA)
Current ages of the OP's are 40 and 35.

Why is the 1% chance of failure more relevant than the 50% chance of having more money than you started with?

I probably have a 1% chance of dying in the next year, should I live as if that was definitely going to happen?

Well. To restate, I am of 2 minds.

One is that the 4% guideline may be way too conservative. Maybe a higher withdrawal rate could be held for a longer period than 30 years.

One is that a 4% withdrawal is way to risky. There is no 4% rule, just a observation. Saying it has a 99% success rate is wrong. It implies that it is a model that has logic and rationale to make predictions. It is not - it is just an observation. If fact patterns change in the future - and they always do - then historically observations can’t carry much weight.

It would be best of the OP to weigh their risk tolerance versus a reduced life style. To be clear, stressing about money can be as bad about stressing over a bad job. On the other hand I do favor a non-materialistic lifestyle that prioritize family.

To restate, I think OP plan is doable but has thin margins. I would stress out over such thin margins. Maybe not the OP.

[skeptical]

pros:
- I am assuming $4M is mostly taxable (that's a lot of money at that age to be in deferred). You will most likely not need to pay federal taxes
- You can find part time work

considerations:

- 3% is borderline for a 50 year retirement, a lot can happen to you, this country, and the world in 50 years. The last 75 years was very kind to America. SORR is a serious issue at the beginning of such a long retirement.

- Health care on your own is very expensive, and goes up a lot faster than inflation. The inflation numbers you see for health care costs (which are already higher than overall inflation) are for the general population, however, as you age, your specific costs also go up independently from the inflation adjustments. Health insurance typically does not cover eyes and teeth, both of which can get expensive for kids and older adults. The good news here is that our health care system is so broken, there will likely be significant changes in the next 10-20 years.

- Kids can be expensive. It's not just college. Health care, vacations, cars, and unexpected life events.

- You are all very young. You have done very well professionally. Lifestyle creep will be a challenge.

I would consider taking a year off. Your marketability won't change that much during that time, and you will learn a lot about what works best for you and your family.

[finite_difference]

Do you have a cheaper area or state that you can move to, but that you would enjoy living in? Do your expenses include taxes and healthcare costs?

3% of $4m is $120k/year or $10k/month.

So I think you should be okay if your expenses remain less than $10k/month.

[flyingcows]

Hi,

I have read a story about the young boy who goes to a farm and was assigned a work to do it in a week.
Here is the catch: If the boy do it early, boy can take the rest of the week off and also get double or triple the pay based on how early the boy completes the work.

A similar task/offer for us is reaching FIRE number. We get to quit working after reaching FIRE number, not sure how to relate to getting paid more if we reach FIRE early.

I am burned out and outdated in skills. Not able to encourage myself to upskill or even do the needed minimum work.
due to
1. burnout
2. unclear path to upskill. (Internal tools and no good documentation)
3. Expectations of fast delivery, which I see other people, especially younger people of say age around 30 are able to do and deliver well, while with my best attempts I couldn't even reach 25% of their work at the same amount of time. This situation started only recently in mid 2024 due to market needing different skill sets and what I used to know is commoditized or outsourced.

Age Me: 40, DW:35(SAHM)
Kids: 2 kids under age 10
State: NJ
Monthly expenses: $10k ($6k for house and $4k for other expenses)
Can cut down to $7k by moving to a smaller house.($3k for house and $4k for other expenses)

DW is ok with any choice I make. Both of us prefer to pursue a house for some stability in life and have a better lifestyle compared with a rental. If I retire, I will have to continue to rent a little longer. We are ok with that too.

Thank you for your time.

What is your career field out of curiosity? And when is the last time you evaluated the job market and considered a move?

I'm in my early 40s and we could probably afford to retire now, but I still enjoy the work I'm doing.

5 years ago I had similar concerns that you do in that job I was in at the time, and in my case a job change alleviated those problems I was facing. The new job also paid significantly more and the nature of the work was more flexible.

Also nothing against NJ but housing there can be very expensive, it has high state income tax, and the weather is not ideal. If you don't have any family ties there, have you considered moving to another state?

[alex_686]

Yes, thank you. That was the intention.

An intention that confused me. Wouldn’t a former valedictorian have the drive to figure out how to continue being productive rather than throwing in the towel at the first sign of difficulty?

Not in my experience. I know lots of high achieving students that spun out after college. Getting straight A’s is simply. Put in lots of hours studying, parrot back the professor. There is a cleanly defined path with clear rewards.

Simply and easy are to different concepts.

The real world is messier. The right path isn’t always clear. Now you need to set your own goals and rewards.

I know more than one person who graduated with a math degree at 20 and then took a menial low stress low pay job and coasted for the rest of their life.

[coffeeblack]

Hi,

I have read a story about the young boy who goes to a farm and was assigned a work to do it in a week.
Here is the catch: If the boy do it early, boy can take the rest of the week off and also get double or triple the pay based on how early the boy completes the work.

A similar task/offer for us is reaching FIRE number. We get to quit working after reaching FIRE number, not sure how to relate to getting paid more if we reach FIRE early.

I am burned out and outdated in skills. Not able to encourage myself to upskill or even do the needed minimum work.
due to
1. burnout
2. unclear path to upskill. (Internal tools and no good documentation)
3. Expectations of fast delivery, which I see other people, especially younger people of say age around 30 are able to do and deliver well, while with my best attempts I couldn't even reach 25% of their work at the same amount of time. This situation started only recently in mid 2024 due to market needing different skill sets and what I used to know is commoditized or outsourced.

Age Me: 40, DW:35(SAHM)
Kids: 2 kids under age 10
State: NJ
Monthly expenses: $10k ($6k for house and $4k for other expenses)
Can cut down to $7k by moving to a smaller house.($3k for house and $4k for other expenses)

DW is ok with any choice I make. Both of us prefer to pursue a house for some stability in life and have a better lifestyle compared with a rental. If I retire, I will have to continue to rent a little longer. We are ok with that too.

Thank you for your time.

Happy New Year
In my opinion if you feed burnout and feel like your skillset is outdated, you can take a few months off. Take the time to recover from burnout and then after that start looking into other career paths. I'm not in the do not fire group. However, I think the reason for it and your age are the perfect combination for some time off and reflection.
You have enough money to last a long time. You can use some of it over the next year or two to help get into something else. Something that perhaps pays you 60 to 100k per year that can cover at least half of your needs.

Also, remember that in this forum there are those who think a 2% withdrawal rate is too high.

[Sandtrap]

Hi,

I have read a story about the young boy who goes to a farm and was assigned a work to do it in a week.
Here is the catch: If the boy do it early, boy can take the rest of the week off and also get double or triple the pay based on how early the boy completes the work.

A similar task/offer for us is reaching FIRE number. We get to quit working after reaching FIRE number, not sure how to relate to getting paid more if we reach FIRE early.

I am burned out and outdated in skills. Not able to encourage myself to upskill or even do the needed minimum work.
due to
1. burnout
2. unclear path to upskill. (Internal tools and no good documentation)
3. Expectations of fast delivery, which I see other people, especially younger people of say age around 30 are able to do and deliver well, while with my best attempts I couldn't even reach 25% of their work at the same amount of time. This situation started only recently in mid 2024 due to market needing different skill sets and what I used to know is commoditized or outsourced.

Age Me: 40, DW:35(SAHM)
Kids: 2 kids under age 10
State: NJ
Monthly expenses: $10k ($6k for house and $4k for other expenses)
Can cut down to $7k by moving to a smaller house.($3k for house and $4k for other expenses)

DW is ok with any choice I make. Both of us prefer to pursue a house for some stability in life and have a better lifestyle compared with a rental. If I retire, I will have to continue to rent a little longer. We are ok with that too.

Thank you for your time.

to op:
Some questions and ponderings:
1
Does 4 mil include the value of your home?
Is it a "net worth figure"?
2
Estimated annual expenses if you retire now?
Adjust for selling home and relocating?
3
Estimated annual "net" income stream per month if you stop working right now and have no employment income?
4
tools to project if you can FIRE:
https://engaging-data.com/early-retirem ... and-tools/

j

[Olemiss540]

Yes. At $4M you will have plenty of money for the rest of your life while being able to control your taxable income to maximize college and Healthcare subsidies. All sorts of options once the kids are launched. Once you are distressed and a year into retirement, my money says you will find another passion and the money will follow.

[CletusCaddy]

Why is the 1% chance of failure more relevant than the 50% chance of having more money than you started with?

I probably have a 1% chance of dying in the next year, should I live as if that was definitely going to happen?

Well. To restate, I am of 2 minds.

One is that the 4% guideline may be way too conservative. Maybe a higher withdrawal rate could be held for a longer period than 30 years.

One is that a 4% withdrawal is way to risky. There is no 4% rule, just a observation. Saying it has a 99% success rate is wrong. It implies that it is a model that has logic and rationale to make predictions. It is not - it is just an observation. If fact patterns change in the future - and they always do - then historically observations can’t carry much weight.

It would be best of the OP to weigh their risk tolerance versus a reduced life style. To be clear, stressing about money can be as bad about stressing over a bad job. On the other hand I do favor a non-materialistic lifestyle that prioritize family.

To restate, I think OP plan is doable but has thin margins. I would stress out over such thin margins. Maybe not the OP.

I understand where you are coming from.

One somewhat off topic issue this raises- it’s clear that SWR “rules” only take into account actual historical performance periods. So the idea that the future could be worse than the past is a problem.

But what about the possibility that the future could be better than the past? Why is that never discussed? We have just experienced a 10 year period where the S&P 500 has returned 13% CAGR! Why no optimism on these FIRE threads?

[Grump99]

Please keep in mind that I'm just a noob here.

Just playing around. A 30 year TIPS ladder generating $120k yearly fully inflation adjusted would cost just over 2.5 million.

Then I plugged the remaining 1.5 million in FiCalc at a 60/40 AA for 30 years. So at age 70, the absolute worst historical balance was 3.1 million. Median and average ending balances were 6.7 and 7.4 million, respectively.

As far as I can see, if the OP waits to take SS at 70, they should be in darn good shape even spending $10k per month.

Please feel free to correct me if I missed something obvious (perhaps tax implications?).

[CletusCaddy]

Please keep in mind that I'm just a noob here.

Just playing around. A 30 year TIPS ladder generating $120k yearly fully inflation adjusted would cost just over 2.5 million.

Then I plugged the remaining 1.5 million in FiCalc at a 60/40 AA for 30 years. So at age 70, the absolute worst historical balance was 3.1 million. Median and average ending balances were 6.7 and 7.4 million, respectively.

As far as I can see, if the OP waits to take SS at 70, they should be in darn good shape even spending $10k per month.

Please feel free to correct me if I missed something obvious (perhaps tax implications?).

You didn’t miss anything; in fact I’d say if you had a TIPS ladder covering all your expenses there’s no reason to be 60/40 with the remainder. Why not 100/0?

With TIPS real yields where they are now, 4% is the new 3%. Too conservative.

[ScubaHogg]

To restate, I think OP plan is doable but has thin margins. I would stress out over such thin margins. Maybe not the OP.

If the OP can really get their expenses to $7k I don’t know how thin they are

I just plugged it into TPAW myself, with some wild guesses as to their SS

https://tpaw-prod.firebaseapp.com/__/au ... an&lang=en

[ScubaHogg]

Please keep in mind that I'm just a noob here.

Just playing around. A 30 year TIPS ladder generating $120k yearly fully inflation adjusted would cost just over 2.5 million.

Then I plugged the remaining 1.5 million in FiCalc at a 60/40 AA for 30 years. So at age 70, the absolute worst historical balance was 3.1 million. Median and average ending balances were 6.7 and 7.4 million, respectively.

As far as I can see, if the OP waits to take SS at 70, they should be in darn good shape even spending $10k per month.

Please feel free to correct me if I missed something obvious (perhaps tax implications?).

One thing is your plan is 60 years, but OPs spouse is 5 years younger, so if you are using age 100 65 years of planning is required

[warner25]

...This situation started only recently in mid 2024...

This stands out to me. If you were doing just fine a few months ago, this seems like way too short of an observation period to make such a strong inductive hypothesis about your ability to be productive with your current skills in your current position, or to learn new skills, or to find a new position that would suit your skills. I'd be curious to see what happens if you just keep doing what you're doing and give things another six months.

Anyway, I get it, along with countless other forum members here. I'm 38 with four kids and a SAHM wife. Between savings and the net present value of a pension, we'll be somewhere in the ballpark of $4M in our early 40s. After attaining some sense of "that's probably enough; I've made it," it is very hard to stay motivated at work. I absolutely feel like I'm in the twilight of my career, but I think that's more because deep down I feel like I don't need to keep achieving vs. not really being able to.

[BetterPaws]

Money-wise you can; this is what this forum is about. And, some part of NJ state is relatively cheap. $6K/month housing expense can cover PITI + utility for a big single-family house, still in a top-notch school district (look around Princeton). But this does not read like a money issue. If I were you, I would just talk to my supervisor/manager, and ask for advice on how to improve productivity, catch up skill sets AND how not to overwork; Not sure if this goes well in your industry or company, though.

[CaptainT]

How about a sabbatical for a year where you focus on a plan for your future. What do you want to do?who do you want to be? Give yourself a deadline and make a plan.

[PoppyA]

I think it is typical to feel this way at your age. If you stick with it I believe the feeling will pass. If you pull the plug you will have to find something new to fill your time/bring meaning to your routine.

[howard71]

How about a sabbatical for a year where you focus on a plan for your future. What do you want to do?who do you want to be? Give yourself a deadline and make a plan.

That's a great idea. I did it at age 50 when I was burned out not only from my job but my wife dying of cancer. Took about a year and a half off and then went back to work with a second wind that lasted me until I retired 17 years later at age 67.

My 3 kids were all grown but I was still supporting them and also I had to adopt one of my grandkids and she was only 3 at the time.

My life savings at the time was probably less than $100k and I only had access to about 1/2 of that by drawing on my IRA.

[snowday2022]

If you choose to use the studies general observations the rule of thumb at 4% and 30 years is about 99% success (75/25 AA)
The same studies will drop the success rate to about 93% for 40 years and 88% for 50 years. (75/25 AA)
Current ages of the OP's are 40 and 35.

Why is the 1% chance of failure more relevant than the 50% chance of having more money than you started with?

I probably have a 1% chance of dying in the next year, should I live as if that was definitely going to happen?

Perhaps getting off topic, but you have to have serious health issues to have a 1% chance of dying per year at your age. This is quite unusually high even for a 40yo in the US even with severe chronic illness.

Obviously we all could die tomorrow, hence should FIRE etc.

OP should provide more details about the job and skills etc. I doubt OP is as unskilled and slow as stated. Probably needs therapy, which is perhaps a separate question from FIRE

[warner25]

I think it is typical to feel this way at your age. If you stick with it I believe the feeling will pass.

This is essentially what I was saying above, but I'm curious to know why you say so too (since I'm also in the thick of it, without the benefit of hindsight from the other side). I just dug into your old posts and found this one (from "WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?") which piqued my interest and seems quite relevant:

I had Physical requirements I had to meet on a yearly/bi-annual basis. I hated seeing my skills perish, beacuse I like to be on top of my game. It was aging that caused the deterioration, not much I could do do change it.

Aging also had it's effect on stress. My job had ups and downs. The downs were fine, but the ups were incredibly stressful. I found the stress made me less enthusiastic about keeping up and being on top of my game. It wore me down...

[Outer Marker]

Do you have a cheaper area or state that you can move to, but that you would enjoy living in?

+1. There are a places in the U.S. that are less expensive and arguably nicer than NJ. $4M enable you to live like a king in some LCOL areas.

Rather than hanging it up entirely, consider a low stress job like working at a community college -- especially since you have academic aptitude. A buddy of mine just quit a tech job and is making nice supplemetal income as an adjuct professor.

Heck, per Google AI, you can make $50K as a starter at a golf course: The average annual salary for a golf course starter is $51,315, with a monthly pay of $4,276. The top earners make around $67,000 annually, while the 25th percentile makes around $43,500.
Some of the responsibilities of a golf course starter include: Enforcing club rules, Repairing ball marks, Filling divots with topsoil, and Picking up loose items on the course.

Doesn't sound too stressful and beats watching daytime TV.

[Livelife2fullest]

[/quote]

I never would have questioned the work ethic of someone who amassed $4M by age 40

To the OP, go plug it all into TPAWplanner.com and look at the various spending paths to see if it satisfies you
[/quote]

Many accumulate large nest eggs at younger age via inheritance of some type. While we often assume a large portfolio is due to marketable skills, hard work, and grit, that’s not always the case.

[sharukh]

Many accumulate large nest eggs at younger age via inheritance of some type. While we often assume a large portfolio is due to marketable skills, hard work, and grit, that’s not always the case.

I had zero inheritance or any other lottery.
After trying multiple private investments and loosing all. Started from zero again in 2013. My first Vanguard index fund purchases is in 2013 and then the bogleheads journey started.

I still support my aging parents for their monthly expenses and no chance of any inheritance

All the money is working to the teeth and saving to the bone. I am an extremes guy.

I guess that itself is the problem. If I can't do something well, I am giving up. This thing has manifested multiple times in several situations.

[alex_686]

But what about the possibility that the future could be better than the past? Why is that never discussed? We have just experienced a 10 year period where the S&P 500 has returned 13% CAGR! Why no optimism on these FIRE threads?

For a little context I am in risk management. My conservative risk tolerance was formed when working on the margin desk during the dot.com boom and bust. There it took 10 years for the stock market it return from where it was.

And why not 13% CAGR? Well, we got that 13% because interest rates mostly fell and stock valuations kept on getting richer. Forward P/E rates now stand at 20. It get 13% for the next 10 years suggests that forward earnings must keep on creeping up and interest rates must keep on falling. That would be a very optimistic outlook.

[smitcat]

If you choose to use the studies general observations the rule of thumb at 4% and 30 years is about 99% success (75/25 AA)
The same studies will drop the success rate to about 93% for 40 years and 88% for 50 years. (75/25 AA)
Current ages of the OP's are 40 and 35.

Why is the 1% chance of failure more relevant than the 50% chance of having more money than you started with?

I probably have a 1% chance of dying in the next year, should I live as if that was definitely going to happen?

Why is the 1% chance of failure more relevant than the 50% chance of having more money than you started with?
That is based on historical returns and for a 30 year term.
The chance of failure rises to 12% for a 50 year term.

"I probably have a 1% chance of dying in the next year, should I live as if that was definitely going to happen?"
You should use any and all if this historical and average data to your best advantage.

[Weathering]

Compensation does not equal productivity.
Compensation equals responsibility.
Maybe there is a reason, you are not seeing, why your employer is trusting you with more responsibility compared to those you are comparing your productivity against. Usually, this is leadership and influence which tip the compensation scales in one person’s direction over another.

However, if you still want to retire I suggest you retire to something - such as to a new job (I can hear the groans from the audience). This new job would be in an industry you feel could benefit society, country, or state, thereby combining work with personal meaning. For example, if you are in technology then consider a job in medical/health tech. If you are in real estate, consider a switch to warehousing/storage. If you are in manufacturing, consider a switch to supply chain. Do this for 5 to 10 years and then retire to whatever is next.

[HomeStretch]

Does your monthly expense levels ($10k current, $7k projected downscale) include everything - income taxes, healthcare costs (including premium payroll withholdings) and periodic expenses such as a new car, new roof or moving expenses?

Is your $4 million portfolio for retirement only or does it also include any savings for your children’s college?

[heyyou]

My broken record response:
The age-based RMD portfolio spending method was tested with far older retirees than yourself. It uses the IRS's Required Minimum Distribution IRA withdrawal percentages annually applied to your entire portfolio's recent annual value, as the annual portfolio withdrawal number, plus spending annual interest and dividend income. Yes, there are minor annual income variations but you can see them in advance of each year, as your portfolio value fluctuates during the year. Most portfolio spending methods (with fixed, higher withdrawal percentages) have been researched for retirement-aged spenders expecting a maximum of a 30 year withdrawal period, so you do have a rare but not entirely unique situation. Your initial annual spending percentage will be very similar to a perpetual spending number that an endowment would use, but your tiny initial withdrawal percentage is an annually rising number when using the RMD method.

My attraction to the RMD portfolio spending method is because it does have variable annual withdrawal amounts that protect portfolio longevity for early retirees, but with the bad news of low starting withdrawal percentages. The retiree can see next year's withdrawal amount vary as this year's portfolio value fluctuates, but that also has the benefit of slightly higher withdrawals when your portfolio is still growing in the earliest decades of your retirement.