Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

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JustGotScammed
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Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by JustGotScammed »

I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?

[OP has a related thread at viewtopic.php?t=421723, but this is a separate different question. Moderator Pops1860]
trustquestioner
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by trustquestioner »

Nobody knows, but I would look at Pittsburgh and Columbus.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by muffins14 »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
You could just rent if you cant afford to buy. There’s nothing wrong with that
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JustGotScammed
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by JustGotScammed »

Ehh, sick of watching other people make real estate $$$.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by snackdog »

13% annual price appreciation in Indianapolis.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by MarkRoulo »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
I can't tell if you are asking
  • which Midwest housing markets WILL HAVE the highest price appreciation in the next few years, or
  • which Midwest housing markets HAVE ALREADY HAD the highest price appreciation in the past few years
Can you clarify?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by runner3081 »

Sioux Falls, South Dakota area.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by bombcar »

Past performance future results?

Areas “just outside of town” have had phenomenal appreciation so it’s unlikely to continue.

Look for desirable areas with great schools.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by mnnice »

The same ones that have coastal style real estate crashes
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by smooth_rough »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
Which coast would you be referring to?

SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

Cleveland or Erie. It’s a coin toss.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by RickBoglehead »

Forecasting the future. That works... :oops:
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Watty »

There are many factors but many of the coastal cities where housing has boomed are areas where there are geographic or other restrictions which prevent expanding the city and building lots of new housing. The lack of places to expand to combined with very low 3%(ish) mortgage fueled the price increases in many coastal cities.

Pretty much by definition a coastal city has an ocean on one side but some cities like the Seattle or San Francisco also have large bays or mountains which limit growth.

Many non-coastal cities are roughly laid out where there is a city center which is then has one or more highways which circle the city in a bulls eye pattern. Over time the metropolitan area can expand by building new housing a few miles farther out.

It is not midwestern but I live in Atlanta which has highway which circles the city which is about 64 miles all the way around. People will sometimes refer to areas in Atlanta as being "inside the perimeter" or "outside the perimeter" based on that highway. During the pre-2008 housing boom Atlanta housing prices did not go up dramatically but there was lots of building around the edge of the metropolitan area where a developer would buy up a farm and put in a large new subdivision. When the housing bust hit after 2008 prices went down a lot and in many cases homes were selling for less than the replacement cost.

Moving to a lower cost of living area can be a very good decision especially if you have a good size nest egg saved up but don't expect to make a killing on the housing there. I did this when I was around 30 and it worked out very well for me.

They vary greatly but one thing you might look at is if you can find a nice college town which you would want to move to. A lot of them have a lot going on and a good stable economy because of the college and good medical facilities which can be a problem in many smaller cities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ted_States
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by 22twain »

Are you looking for someplace to move to, or someplace to be a remote landlord?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by upwind »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
I don’t follow real estate and certainly don’t know what is happening currently but historically Midwest has been considered a relatively stable market. It does not have history of wild ups and downs.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Amien »

North suburban Milwaukee, Ozaukee County, Lake Michigan frontage with big city amenities available. Otherwise, Door County peninsula, established resort area on Lake Michigan with Green Bay frontage, but four hours from Milwaukee airport, or Sheboygan County, 1+ hours from Milwaukee airport, but great amenities, Kohler golf courses and resort, stunning shoreline, and relatively inexpensive but quality lakefront houses.

Sheboygan is “Malibu of Midwest”, with yes, summer and winter surfing, wind-gliding, flat-boarding, and sailing. Coast Guard station and US women’s sailing team too. Lake Michigan is magnificent.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Metsfan91 »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
Detroit has one of the hottest market lately.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Bobby206 »

Nobody knows. I have had better appreciation in Memphis, compared to my former coastal market, in the past 8 years and Memphis is strictly a cash flow market according to all the so called experts. So... as it turned out Memphis is a cash flow market AND an appreciation market... not that I would necessarily want to live there. I like Arkansas as potential for future but have not invested there.

If you are looking for a place to live I wouldn't worry about guessing appreciation but instead focus on a place that looks like a place you'd want to live. Not everything in life is about money and where you live is high on that list where the finances of it are secondary.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:49 pm Ehh, sick of watching other people make real estate $$$.
Let me see if I understand your goal... On the one hand you want to invest in real estate to make money, yet on the other hand you don't want to invest in real estate that has already made money. It seems you are looking to get in on the ground floor of the next great local real estate boom. People try to do that with stocks, too....
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Valuethinker »

Watty wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:37 pm

They vary greatly but one thing you might look at is if you can find a nice college town which you would want to move to. A lot of them have a lot going on and a good stable economy because of the college and good medical facilities which can be a problem in many smaller cities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ted_States
Hypothesis not known fact.

The drop in 18 year olds in the USA is quite precipitate. This has caused a crisis in recruitment for many US colleges - as I understand it.

In Canada, Australia and the UK the "solution" was to vastly increase recruitment from foreign countries - primarily India and China. However with tightened immigration visa rules, that source of support for universities is drying up.

Add to that the fiscal pressures on public universities, and the soaring costs of private college education. My partner is doing a sciences degree online (with the British Open University www.open.ac.uk and I have been consistently impressed with the quality of the materials and the online tutorials. So that's another threat to traditional colleges - as online degrees become more of a thing.

College towns can be "one industry towns" and so that does pose some risk. I don't worry about Ann Arbor, say, because U of Michigan is going to remain a top choice for high school graduates. But there may be other, particularly small private liberal arts colleges, which will merge or close. Nor would I worry about Charlottesville VA say, for similar reasons ie flagship public universities.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by happyisland »

smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by retired early&luv it »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:49 pm Ehh, sick of watching other people make real estate $$$.
Look for a place with a lot of economic growth where there is a housing shortage.

Personally, I would rather make my investments in more liquid assets where there are fewer costs of ownership (property taxes) without significant costs to sell later (realtor commissions), etc. And I would rather live somewhere based on other life qualities than solely on anticipated real estate financial gain.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by grkmec »

How about you start with some demographic analysis?

Find out which cities are experiencing the biggest influx of population, either because companies relocating, growing, and/or the state is tax friendly. Post covid many jobs can be done remotely, so states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee are benefiting from this tax migration. So I would be looking at places like Nashville, Austin, etc.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by BernardShakey »

grkmec wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:19 am How about you start with some demographic analysis?

Find out which cities are experiencing the biggest influx of population, either because companies relocating, growing, and/or the state is tax friendly. Post covid many jobs can be done remotely, so states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee are benefiting from this tax migration. So I would be looking at places like Nashville, Austin, etc.
Nashville and Austin are overrun with newcomers driving prices up. Seems like buying a high flying stock in an overheated market.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by muffins14 »

happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:16 am
smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
Get out of here with your data! It’s more fun to let people live in their bubble of exaggeration and misinformation
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by muffins14 »

grkmec wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:19 am How about you start with some demographic analysis?

Find out which cities are experiencing the biggest influx of population, either because companies relocating, growing, and/or the state is tax friendly. Post covid many jobs can be done remotely, so states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee are benefiting from this tax migration. So I would be looking at places like Nashville, Austin, etc.
I suspect Austin is post-peak in terms of growth rate for jobs and real estate
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Sandtrap »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
to op:
Areas and specific neighborhoods and higher end (sometimes gated private with exclusive golf courses and dining with dress codes) socio-cultural economic enclaves with limited finite homes (geographic area) for sale that are always in demand no matter the price.
Lots of West coast examples, plus, upper scottsdale arizona, on oahu hawaii; kahala, lanikai, upper hawaii kai, etc. having specific socio economic diversity specific enclaves.

Generalized City or region names are too broad to apply.

supply and demand are very specific to location

There are more predictable ways to make short term profits than Residential SFH "flippers".

to op:

Have you done this before?
Would you be living in the home or immediate area?
How much do you have $$$$ to play with?
(500k, 1 mil cash, 3 mil cash)???

j🌺
Last edited by Sandtrap on Sun Jun 02, 2024 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by 60B4E24B »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:49 pm Ehh, sick of watching other people make real estate $$$.
Buy a REIT then.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by MrNarwhal »

One-year trends can be found here:
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/f ... -05-08.pdf
Whether these will hold true, nobody knows.

But I'm confused. I thought you were buying for lifestyle reasons (your wife wants a house). Which is it?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by smooth_rough »

muffins14 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:09 am
happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:16 am
smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
Get out of here with your data! It’s more fun to let people live in their bubble of exaggeration and misinformation
Replace agent 3 times, taking price reductions each time. Then claim it sold over asking price in 16 days. Its junk data.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by chassis »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:49 pm Ehh, sick of watching other people make real estate $$$.
You are doing this for the wrong reasons. It sounds like you are "sick of" (jealous) of watching other people make real estate money.

Equities have far outperformed physical real estate in the recent past, and over the long term. Important is to consider all costs so that the total return can be compared.

Physical real estate as a portfolio investment has some serious drawbacks. Are you aware of any of these?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by cs412a »

I live in the Midwest. You don't want to move to the River City, where I live. Housing prices are very stable. One of the reasons I enjoy living here is that if a person works for a living, they can afford to buy a house. No one is priced out of the market. :happy
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by bendix »

Very much every Midwestern city I have seen has basically limitless space around to build houses for another 50 million people if need be. Not sure something like that is ever going to happen.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by InvisibleAerobar »

bendix wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:28 am Very much every Midwestern city I have seen has basically limitless space around to build houses for another 50 million people if need be. Not sure something like that is ever going to happen.
Devil is in the details, and this particular detail (scarcity) was alluded to by @SandTrap upthread.

Just because the region overall (12 states per definition of the Census Bureau) has capacity to accommodate growth doesn't mean that this applies to every single incorporated municipality located within these states. For those incorporated municipalities that are "penned in", there really is a limit to additional development, and any new development pretty much entails tearing down of an existing structure. Even municipalities that still have room to grow often have long-standing build-up areas that can no longer accommodate additional structure without tearing down existing structure.

Having said that, most such places have already been identified and have already experienced sizeable appreciation, albeit not as severe as what's observed on the West Coast. There's also the issue that there's quite a bit less wealth to continuously drive up appreciation (though this doesn't apply to certain locales in Chicago and MSP), so that after a certain point, demand is drastically reduced.

So the OP's inquiry can be broken down to two parts. What places have seen drastic appreciation? This part is easy. Various desirable neighborhoods of cities (think neighborhoods in MSP adjacent to the Mississippi), inner suburbs of cities (think streetcar/ railroad suburbs), and college towns in the Midwest have experienced this. The hard (and ultimately non-actionable) part is which of these places will continue to see such level of growth.
Last edited by InvisibleAerobar on Sun Jun 02, 2024 11:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by CletusCaddy »

muffins14 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:09 am
happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:16 am
smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
Get out of here with your data! It’s more fun to let people live in their bubble of exaggeration and misinformation
Here is some actual data:

SF Condo appreciation over last 6 years: 2%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRCNSA

SF All Housing appreciation over same time: 35%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by smooth_rough »

CletusCaddy wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:57 am
muffins14 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:09 am
happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:16 am
smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
Get out of here with your data! It’s more fun to let people live in their bubble of exaggeration and misinformation
Here is some actual data:

SF Condo appreciation over last 6 years: 2%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRCNSA

SF All Housing appreciation over same time: 35%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA
AGAIN as previously explained, this data is based on CASE SHILLER, and is a widely misreported data set. CASE SHILLER is junk data. A property can be re-listed by 3 different agents, taking price reductions each time. Then CASE SHILLER will report that it sold "over asking price" in 16 days. This is because CASE SHILLER only pulls the data from the last MLS entry. CASE SHILLER is junk data. It presents a false picture.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by retireIn2020 »

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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Valuethinker »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?

[OP has a related thread at viewtopic.php?t=421723, but this is a separate different question. Moderator Pops1860]
You are not going to get rich in Midwestern USA real estate in a hurry.

If you are in a position where you can buy properties, manage them at low cost (ie a lot of you doing the legwork), leverage and keep investing you may eventually build up a decent portfolio. Debt repayment then will lead to increased equity. In 20 or 30 years it could be a nice retirement portfolio.

Relying on price appreciation in the US Midwest though is not consistent with past price trends. Look at Buffalo or Detroit -- to pick extremes.

I have a soft spot for Cleveland but I don't think it is going anywhere as a city. People tell me Pittsburgh area is very liveable. Chicago has ruinous public finances - I believe that Illinois is rated one notch above sub investment grade? (ie "junk").

You might rather look where the big new car manufacturing investments are going in? Kentucky-Tennessee? Also Georgia?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Valuethinker »

InvisibleAerobar wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:52 am

So the OP's inquiry can be broken down to two parts. What places have seen drastic appreciation? This part is easy. Various desirable neighborhoods of cities (think neighborhoods in MSP adjacent to the Mississippi),
Has flooding turned into a big problem in these areas?
inner suburbs of cities (think streetcar/ railroad suburbs), and college towns in the Midwest have experienced this. The hard (and ultimately non-actionable) part is which of these places will continue to see such level of growth.
The North American streetcar suburb (built typically 1890s-1930s?) is, in my view, a highlight of the urban form in North America. Offering a range of housing types - single family homes but also low rise apartments were common. Good transport. Walkable local amenities. The Postwar Suburb isn't anything as liveable - being totally car dependent and with much less intermixing of types of housing and amenities.

Nonetheless there aren't a lot of streetcars left. That era has come and gone.

College towns see my other post. The North American higher education sector is likely to see contraction, given the declining numbers of 18 year olds, plus restrictions on immigration for higher education (a major "cash cow" for the sector, both undergrad and postgrad).
InvisibleAerobar
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by InvisibleAerobar »

Valuethinker wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 12:06 pm
InvisibleAerobar wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:52 am

So the OP's inquiry can be broken down to two parts. What places have seen drastic appreciation? This part is easy. Various desirable neighborhoods of cities (think neighborhoods in MSP adjacent to the Mississippi),
Has flooding turned into a big problem in these areas?
At least in MSP, the nice neighborhoods abutting the Mississippi sit on a bluff about 100-ft above the river. It's actually a really stunning view and is quite a contrast to the wide, broad sections of the river 100+ miles downstream.

The North American streetcar suburb (built typically 1890s-1930s?) is, in my view, a highlight of the urban form in North America. Offering a range of housing types - single family homes but also low rise apartments were common. Good transport. Walkable local amenities. The Postwar Suburb isn't anything as liveable - being totally car dependent and with much less intermixing of types of housing and amenities.

Nonetheless there aren't a lot of streetcars left. That era has come and gone.

College towns see my other post. The North American higher education sector is likely to see contraction, given the declining numbers of 18 year olds, plus restrictions on immigration for higher education (a major "cash cow" for the sector, both undergrad and postgrad).
You are right, a lot of those streetcar suburbs are no longer like what they once were because the tracks have been removed. But the characteristics you mentioned are still present, and those characteristics add a lot to quality of life. Schools, libraries, and grocery stores are all within walking distance in such neighborhoods. Some still have public transport (I'm thinking of the lakeside established suburbs of Chicago). My wife and I reside in an incorporated municipality that has a bit of both the streetcar suburb (last streetcar service ended in the late 1960s, IIRC) and the postwar suburb. Perhaps this betrays our privilege, but I've come to really dread running errands in the post-war suburbs accessible only via multi-lane stroads and would gladly pay a few dollars more to get produce by walking to the supermarket half mile away.

No big disagreements about college towns, though there are a few that have seen significant appreciation and have a draw beyond what is expected of an average college town. Ann Arbor and Madison come to mind. Both have seen significant appreciation, but whether that trend continues is anyone's guess. The outlook is likely less sanguine for places such as Lincoln, Neb. and Bloomington, Ind.
Last edited by InvisibleAerobar on Sun Jun 02, 2024 12:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
popoki
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by popoki »

Chile is considered the California of South America, climate-wise. Same time zone as Eastern US.

Ocean-front 3BR, $750k:
https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sale ... paraiso-va

"Chile is 49.3% cheaper than California"
https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/cost-of ... -usa/chile
Gray doesn't matter.
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happyisland
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by happyisland »

smooth_rough wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 9:09 am
muffins14 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:09 am
happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:16 am
smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
Get out of here with your data! It’s more fun to let people live in their bubble of exaggeration and misinformation
Replace agent 3 times, taking price reductions each time. Then claim it sold over asking price in 16 days. Its junk data.
I'm sure there is a lot of data manipulation out there. My post was not meant as a dispositive data dump, but just to question the "SF condo prices are collapsing right now" post. Do you have any non-junk data that shows a price collapse?

More relevant to this thread, what do you think IS a good source of housing market data that a speculator like the OP could use?
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JustGotScammed
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by JustGotScammed »

happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 1:00 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 9:09 am
muffins14 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:09 am
happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:16 am
smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
Get out of here with your data! It’s more fun to let people live in their bubble of exaggeration and misinformation
Replace agent 3 times, taking price reductions each time. Then claim it sold over asking price in 16 days. Its junk data.
I'm sure there is a lot of data manipulation out there. My post was not meant as a dispositive data dump, but just to question the "SF condo prices are collapsing right now" post. Do you have any non-junk data that shows a price collapse?

More relevant to this thread, what do you think IS a good source of housing market data that a speculator like the OP could use?
I am not a speculator. I am asking for the purpose of making a good selection in case that was not clear.
Firemenot
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Firemenot »

I’m from the midwest and live in coastal California. I don’t think you’ll find it. The reason real estate has gone up so much in my area is almost no new supply (due to hostility to new development at almost all levels plus lack of water), very desirable year-round weather, world class scenery, and proximity to the giant wealth creator that has been Silicon Valley (Apple, Google, Meta, Nvidia, etc.). Even though I live too far away to commute to Silicon Valley on a daily basis, the crazy money of those employees has driven up my area too.
EricGold
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by EricGold »

I imagine the thing to get right (or at least give serious thought) is the economic prospects of the surrounding area. If I could stand TX I would look more into Austin
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:49 pm Ehh, sick of watching other people make real estate $$$.
maybe you're only seeing half the story.

you're not seeing all the money that went in to fixing, maintaining, the properties. The tax increases. Have you heard about insurance increases lately? And so on.

Looking at one side of the ledger while ignoring the other side is never wise.

the grass is always greener on the other side, as Morgan Housel puts it, because it's fertilized with B.S.

here's a good article (be sure to read all 5 parts!) by JL Collins on real estate:
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/03/15/how- ... le-part-i/

you're seeing the pros to real estate, but you're not looking at the cons. Shouldn't you look at both:
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... state#ip=1

i'm not saying you shouldn't buy real estate by the way. Just that you should go in with both eyes open. That's all.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
CletusCaddy
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by CletusCaddy »

smooth_rough wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 11:28 am
CletusCaddy wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:57 am
muffins14 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:09 am
happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:16 am
smooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pm
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
are they?

Redfin: "In April 2024, San Francisco home prices were up 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.4M. On average, homes in San Francisco sell after 22 days on the market compared to 27 days last year. There were 489 homes sold in April this year, up from 409 last year."

Zillow: "The average San Francisco, CA home value is $1,296,843, down 1.6% over the past year and goes to pending in around 16 days."

Sfgate: "Competing in today’s market still isn’t easy, but Lopez said there’s more opportunity than there once was. For example, she said that back in the “white-hot” days, buyers needed to waive all contingencies or have an all-cash offer in hand to get the place they really wanted. Now, a buyer may be able to still win a home with a financial or insurance contingency attached to an offer. Downtown San Francisco, meanwhile, is absolutely a buyer’s market, Lopez said. Supply is outstripping demand and that’s forcing prices down."
Get out of here with your data! It’s more fun to let people live in their bubble of exaggeration and misinformation
Here is some actual data:

SF Condo appreciation over last 6 years: 2%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRCNSA

SF All Housing appreciation over same time: 35%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA
AGAIN as previously explained, this data is based on CASE SHILLER, and is a widely misreported data set. CASE SHILLER is junk data. A property can be re-listed by 3 different agents, taking price reductions each time. Then CASE SHILLER will report that it sold "over asking price" in 16 days. This is because CASE SHILLER only pulls the data from the last MLS entry. CASE SHILLER is junk data. It presents a false picture.
What in the world are you talking about.

Case Shiller uses sold prices, not listing prices.
eric321
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by eric321 »

Overall, look for strong demographics, job creation and businesses moving to an area.

In the Midwest, look for homes that are cheaper to buy than build. Rough rule of thumb is $200/Sq ft. So a 2,500 Sq ft house for less than $500k.

In areas where you have a lot of land and developers can put down a new development easily, the limiting factor is cost of competing housing.

Those areas you'll get a lot of appreciation until new housing makes sense.
runswithscissors
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by runswithscissors »

If you can afford it, invest where climate and weather are most ideal. Look for the mildest winters and summers. Areas with the longest annual comfortable outdoor exercising/recreation window. I'm not sure where in the Midwest this would be most ideal though. But the outdoor lifestyle will only become more desirable over time.
Valuethinker
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?

Post by Valuethinker »

EricGold wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 3:09 pm I imagine the thing to get right (or at least give serious thought) is the economic prospects of the surrounding area. If I could stand TX I would look more into Austin
What people say about Austin is that the urban growth has ruined it: traffic, sprawl etc.

That said, cities like that do tend to keep on growing, regardless of the growing cost and inconvenience.

Austin has certainly built housing of late - that speaks to less price appreciation rather than more?

Charlotte NC is a city that keeps coming up in casual conversation. North Carolina is not too far south - summers are bad, but not as bad - but still decently sheltered from winter. People seem to say it's a functional city rather than a desirable one. But plenty of housing which looks quite affordable to someone thinking on an international basis (London, New York, SF Bay, Paris, Vancouver, Melbourne etc).

Phoenix is another one. I worry about the water supply (lack of) & excessive groundwater extraction -- it's got to be a city that could hit "Day Zero". But it is true that if AZ gave up farming, there's enough water for a lot more urban growth. I don't think Phoenix has (yet) reached Las Vegas style water use measures (LV is perhaps the strictest city in America when it comes to water use; they pioneered a lot of the measures*).

But the growth in Phoenix seems to be more or less infinite. With the IRA you have big investments going into chip making factories. The city offers a desirable alternative to California for refugees from there.

OTOH they build lots of housing, so prospects for price appreciation are not the same as they would be on the crowded coasts (with strong NIMBY constituents).

* Perth, Australia is even further ahead, apparently. Also happens to be the most remote city in the developed world (even more so than Siberian cities?). It's actually closer to Singapore than to Sydney in New South Wales. So maybe the knowledge doesn't diffuse as well.
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