Tesla Lease

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Topic Author
vk22
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Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:40 pm

Tesla Lease

Post by vk22 »

Image
Image

I need to pickup this car in 2 hours or lose 250. This ia a Tesla model Y long range AWD. I was hoping to lease because of tax credits. My current car is a 15 year old Toyota and time to replace. but when I look at this, cost seems to be almost 25K for 3 years. This is a 3 year, 12K mile lease. Should I cancel or proceed?

My alternate is Toyota Crown at about 47K. These are the only 2 cars I like. If I buy this, I keep for 8+ years. With Tesla, I shop again in 3 years because EV technology maybe better then.

sorry images are too big..not sure how to decrease it.

thanks for any quick insights
Last edited by vk22 on Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
Angel of Empire
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by Angel of Empire »

I'd walk (run) away from the Tesla.

EV technology may be better in 3 years for you to shop again, but it's more likely that EVs will mostly disappear. They'll never be more than a niche product.

Congrats on the 15 year old Toyota. We'll never see the day when someone owns a 15-year old EV.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

I own this car, and I lease. It is my first lease in my life, and I only changed my tune about leases this one time because I thought there would be a fair chance that I wanted something else in 3 years.

As for the lease cost -- yeah, I think it is expensive. The only mitigating factor here, which is hard to quantify, is that EV tech improves at a remarkable rate. You can probably figure on a discount rate of 8% between better tech and lower prices. If you are the type to be happy with the car you buy today for the next 15 years then I say buy instead of lease.

If your alternative car is an ICE and your priority is dollars in your pocket then be sure to consider fuel cost. As for the car itself as a car, the Model Y is just about the best possible and it shames a Toyota. That is saying something because Toyota makes good ICE cars.
kgw
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by kgw »

Topic Author
vk22
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Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:40 pm

Re: Tesla Lease

Post by vk22 »

thanks to you and others for the response. I see I am at the 1.25% said in the video. so not a great deal, but not bad either. if the discount rate is really 8%, as said by EricGold, this is probably an ok deal.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

One other comment --

I think EVs are fantastic, but even I cannot recommend them if you cannot charge at home or work. A lot of hassle, and public charging tends to be expensive and/or unreliable
Jack FFR1846
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Can you drop "long range"? $14k for a little longer range seems outrageous vs the cost of the car.
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EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:42 pm Can you drop "long range"? $14k for a little longer range seems outrageous vs the cost of the car.
The extra range is not "a little" if the car is used for long distance driving that involves multiple supercharging stops**. If the car is a suburban commuter (or less) then the smaller battery may be a nice fit.

** The reasons why get involved, but for the most part come down to 4 season (READ: winter) driving, the power charging curve, and the current/near term distribution of the Supercharging network. People who buy the smaller battery EV choice and then swap to a larger battery a short time later are a dime a dozen. It's an expensive mistake
cmr79
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by cmr79 »

That is way too much to spend on leasing a MYLR. I think the MYLR is a still pretty good deal right now to purchase, but Tesla has always been a little weird with their lease offers. There are great lease deals on other EVs right now, and amazing deals on used EVs, though you clearly stated that you aren't interested.

The Crown is a really unappealing looking vehicle IMHO, but I would purchase that over this MYLR lease deal if those were my only two options.
abracadabra11
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by abracadabra11 »

Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am We'll never see the day when someone owns a 15-year old EV.
We will...in less than 3 years in fact. When the first Model S' hit the 15-year mark.
Yarlonkol12
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by Yarlonkol12 »

Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am Congrats on the 15 year old Toyota. We'll never see the day when someone owns a 15-year old EV.
I think the original nissan leafs turn 15 years old this year
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Topic Author
vk22
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by vk22 »

Thanks all. I ended up not buying the Tesla. I could not take delivery due to some issues on their end. I cancelled and lost the 250. I need to look for another car. I prefer a hybrid. My 15 year old car is a Toyota hybrid and gave no trouble. I value safety hence the model Y. If not, neutral on EVs (there are positives and negatives). I can spend upto 60 or 65K, so thought of Lexus RX 350hybrid. But the problem is on safety, if you see the NHTA and IIHS dont rank them highly. safer cars are teslas or toyota/honda sedans when you also factor in reliability plus mpg

Wants :

- no frequent gas station stops (tanks must be >600 miles and >35mpg)
- high safety per nhta and iihs
- reliability that lets me keep it for 8+ years with no trouble (can also buy extended warranty to meet this, if needed)
- easy entry and exit; dont have sit down like in most sedans. comfortable seats


so far, model Y, crown, Hyundai santafe hybrid are the only ones I see fitting.
Last edited by vk22 on Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

vk22 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:21 pm - easy entry an exit; comfortable seats
- high safety per nhta and iihs
Funny you mention that. In general I have very little use for what people call "luxury" in cars, but one thing I've come to highly appreciate in the Tesla is its entry/exit/drive profiles. A profile includes positions of seat, mirrors, and steering wheel (and I think some others too, but not sure.) I set up profiles for car parked, me , and my wife. When I open the car door the seat is all the way to the back and the wheel is high: easy entry

Then I take the car out of 'park' and the setting adjust to what I like for driving. If my wife used the car before me I am none the wiser (except for the water bottle she forgets to take with her.)
Pretty darn cool

I am a fan of mitigating risk in order to reduce insurance costs, so I also pay a lot of attention to car safety. Tesla is at the top, PERIOD. My only annoyance with them was being supplied with coastal CA tyres in a 4 season climate. Tesla is far from being the only car manufacturer with that behavior, but it did mean I had to buy my locale appropriate to bring the car up to my safety standard.
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

vk22 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:21 pm Thanks all. I ended up not buying the Tesla. I could not take delivery due to some issues on their end. I cancelled and lost the 250. I need to look for another car. I prefer a hybrid. My 15 year old car is a Toyota hybrid and gave no trouble. I value safety hence the model Y. If not, neutral on EVs (there are positives and negatives). I can spend upto 60 or 65K, so thought of Lexus RX 350hybrid. But the problem is on safety, if you see the NHTA and IIHS dont rank them highly. safer cars are teslas or toyota/honda sedans when you also factor in reliability plus mpg

Wants :

- no frequent gas station stops (tanks must be >600 miles and >35mpg)
- high safety per nhta and iihs
- reliability that lets me keep it for 8+ years with no trouble (can also buy extended warranty to meet this, if needed)
- easy entry and exit; dont have sit down like in most sedans. comfortable seats


so far, model Y, crown, Hyundai santafe hybrid are the only ones I see fitting.
Not seeing how the model Y fits your requirements. It certainly does not have a 600 miles range.
I think a Prius Prime would fit your requirements except the last one, at a much lower price than 60-65k.

I would not rely on extended warranties. Most of them have a large number of exclusions. They are not comparable to the initial 3 years bumper to bumper typical warranty. You have to read the fine print in the contract to find out the gory details.
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

EricGold wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:25 pm I am a fan of mitigating risk in order to reduce insurance costs, so I also pay a lot of attention to car safety. Tesla is at the top, PERIOD.
Not if you buy a Cybertruck. It's not legal in Europe or China due to not meeting safety regulations.
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am EV technology may be better in 3 years for you to shop again, but it's more likely that EVs will mostly disappear. They'll never be more than a niche product.
I wonder what data you have to predict this. EVs sales may have slowed down in the US, but that is mainly due to the changes in the requirements for the EV tax credit, IMO. Manufacturers will adapt, and EV sales will take off again. EVs are taking off big time in China, also. I even rode in an EV taxi in Vietnam last year, of all places.
Congrats on the 15 year old Toyota. We'll never see the day when someone owns a 15-year old EV.
I returned my 2012 Leaf which was leased. It would have been 12 years by now. Not sure if it's still on the roads.

We have a 2015 Volt PHEV and 2017 Bolt BEV. That's 16 years combined age. I think a PHEV + EV are the ideal combination in a 2-car household.
runswithscissors
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by runswithscissors »

The Toyota Crown is ridiculously expensive for what you get.
MH2
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by MH2 »

Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am I'd walk (run) away from the Tesla.

EV technology may be better in 3 years for you to shop again, but it's more likely that EVs will mostly disappear. They'll never be more than a niche product.

Congrats on the 15 year old Toyota. We'll never see the day when someone owns a 15-year old EV.
:mrgreen:

Completely agree on the Toyota. Great cars. Drive them till they die.

What is your thinking behind EVs being niche products that will disappear in a decade or two? We’ve been hearing this since… people were hardwiring laptop battery cells together and retrofitting them into Lotus and Mazda donor cars.
Last edited by MH2 on Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
BruDude
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by BruDude »

$22k to rent a pretty entry level tesla for 3 years seems insane to me but I’m not an EV guy
MH2
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by MH2 »

vk22 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:25 am Image
Image

I need to pickup this car in 2 hours or lose 250. This ia a Tesla model Y long range AWD. I was hoping to lease because of tax credits. My current car is a 15 year old Toyota and time to replace. but when I look at this, cost seems to be almost 25K for 3 years. This is a 3 year, 12K mile lease. Should I cancel or proceed?

My alternate is Toyota Crown at about 47K. These are the only 2 cars I like. If I buy this, I keep for 8+ years. With Tesla, I shop again in 3 years because EV technology maybe better then.

sorry images are too big..not sure how to decrease it.

thanks for any quick insights
Too much discussion on EVs, not enough on the actual lease.

It looks fine to me. I would honestly recommend going slightly used, cash only, and forgoing the tax credits. Tesla’s in the states are likely some of the best value- performance bargains you can find at the moment. More so for the Model 3 than the Y.

That said, if you want to go new and if the math works out (I no longer live in the states and can’t speak to how the tax credits work out), there’s nothing wrong with this as opposed to, say financing over 48 months, as long as you take the buy out in the end. Since this is a personal finance and investing forum, the other usual caveats apply. However, you’ve likely done the math already.

Everyone I know who owns a Tesla loves them.
YeahBuddy
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by YeahBuddy »

vk22 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:21 pm Thanks all. I ended up not buying the Tesla. I could not take delivery due to some issues on their end. I cancelled and lost the 250. I need to look for another car. I prefer a hybrid. My 15 year old car is a Toyota hybrid and gave no trouble. I value safety hence the model Y. If not, neutral on EVs (there are positives and negatives). I can spend upto 60 or 65K, so thought of Lexus RX 350hybrid. But the problem is on safety, if you see the NHTA and IIHS dont rank them highly. safer cars are teslas or toyota/honda sedans when you also factor in reliability plus mpg

Wants :

- no frequent gas station stops (tanks must be >600 miles and >35mpg)
- high safety per nhta and iihs
- reliability that lets me keep it for 8+ years with no trouble (can also buy extended warranty to meet this, if needed)
- easy entry and exit; dont have sit down like in most sedans. comfortable seats


so far, model Y, crown, Hyundai santafe hybrid are the only ones I see fitting.

Toyota Prius. 5 star crash rating. Mine is 7 years old and has been the best car I've ever owned in terms of reliability, fuel efficiency, and least depreciation. I've had to replace the interior cabin light housing one time, brakes once, a set of tires, and other normal maintenance. At 55mpg, I see the gas station twice a month. And it's depreciated $10k in 7 years.

I'm personally not a fan of the new redesign so I'd choose a 2022 and I see many locally for mid $20k with under 25k miles.
Light weight baby!
MH2
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by MH2 »

vk22 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:21 pm Thanks all. I ended up not buying the Tesla. I could not take delivery due to some issues on their end. I cancelled and lost the 250. I need to look for another car. I prefer a hybrid. My 15 year old car is a Toyota hybrid and gave no trouble. I value safety hence the model Y. If not, neutral on EVs (there are positives and negatives). I can spend upto 60 or 65K, so thought of Lexus RX 350hybrid. But the problem is on safety, if you see the NHTA and IIHS dont rank them highly. safer cars are teslas or toyota/honda sedans when you also factor in reliability plus mpg

Wants :

- no frequent gas station stops (tanks must be >600 miles and >35mpg)
- high safety per nhta and iihs
- reliability that lets me keep it for 8+ years with no trouble (can also buy extended warranty to meet this, if needed)
- easy entry and exit; dont have sit down like in most sedans. comfortable seats


so far, model Y, crown, Hyundai santafe hybrid are the only ones I see fitting.
Missed this when I wrote my last post.

Model Y is a good option if you go used. Plenty of options on Autotempest for under 30K. Despite what people say, they are very good vehicles and can take something of a beating (I know someone driving one in developing country and, let’s be honest, road infrastructure in the states is pretty bad).

Hyundais always look good on paper. Then, a couple of years down the line, something goes wrong. This is absolutely going to be model-make-year dependent. However, there are much better vehicles for what they’re asking.

The 600 mile minimum limit makes this a little difficult. Imo if you’re sticking to SUVs, this is diesel or - maybe - PHEV territory.
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

MH2 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:30 am The 600 mile minimum limit makes this a little difficult. Imo if you’re sticking to SUVs, this is diesel or - maybe - PHEV territory.
I don't really understand the 600 mile requirement. My bladder could never last that long. And it's very hard to go 600 miles without seeing a gas station.
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just frank
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by just frank »

I leased a 2022 Chevy Bolt EV in May 2022 for slightly less than this. In my case GM dropped the MSRP a lot the next month, and they sent me a check for $6k that covered the first year's lease. :moneybag

This was before the new EV incentives and massive EV price reductions. The MYLR was over $60k at that time IIRC.

I also assume you have too much income for the tax rebate, and have researched that the car meets your use case. And shopped for insurance.

It would be good to compute the residual value for this lease. You are making a bet that the car will depreciate faster than this residual.

In my case, my Bolt is already well below the lease residual, and I still have 17 mos on the lease. So I will probably 'win' in leasing versus buying.

IMO because of future improvement causing EV depreciation AND learning curves lowering EV costs causing MORE depreciation, leasing is a great way to reduce risk. If somehow the car is worth MORE than its residual in 3 years... you can still buy it for the residual (usually, check the fine print).

A lot of folks don't 'get' EV depreciation. They say 'don't get it bc of rapid depreciation' and sometimes they will ALSO say 'leases are a bad deal bc of depreciation'. LOL.

What they don't realize is that as EV sedans and hatches have (in 2024) reached purchase price parity with similar sized ICE vehicles, the 'protection' the latter had in the market is disappearing. IOW, as EV prices continue to fall, in the future they will pull down ICE vehicle sale and resale prices in the same segment. The Crown/Corolla's future resale is not assured by historical performance.

Just go for it. :beer

UPDATE: I saw the update... I still think its a good deal (to own for 3 years and get your EV feet wet). But if it doesn't fit your use case... then no. I don't believe in rushed deals... another similar or cheaper deal could pop up tomorrow, or next month.
kgw
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by kgw »

Review the Hyundai Ioniq 6. 2024 IIHS Top Safety Winner and the current top lease deal.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z8rQ_NQxD ... A2IGxlYXNl
teCh0010
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by teCh0010 »

We leased a Model 3 around thanksgiving to take advantage of the $7500 credit. We got a standard range model 3, but the standard range has LFP batteries that you can use 100% of vs normally only charging to 80% with the other battery chemistry.

We have 15k miles per year, $362 a month, paid $4500 at signing.

The car has fit great for my wife who does a ton of around town driving. Really enjoyed it so far. First time ever leasing a car, but EV tech changes so fast we wanted to check it out for three years.

I was also interested in polestar, but couldn’t get one in my location.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

MH2 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:01 am
Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am but it's more likely that EVs will mostly disappear. They'll never be more than a niche product.
What is your thinking behind EVs being niche products that will disappear in a decade or two?
He must be oblivious to the world and in denial of AGW. Norway is the leader, with their most recent sales month at 92% EV, about 6% PHEV/Hybrid. Other countries are catching up quickly. China is on the cusp of majority sales *EV IIRC
teCh0010
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by teCh0010 »

The Model Y was the best selling individual model in the world in 2023.

And BYD is churning out lower cost EVs in China at an astounding rate. Tesla made more units globally in 2023, but 2024 BYD will be the largest EV manufacturer.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

teCh0010 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 8:25 am We leased a Model 3 around thanksgiving to take advantage of the $7500 credit. We got a standard range model 3, but the standard range has LFP batteries that you can use 100% of vs normally only charging to 80% with the other battery chemistry.
Nothing stops you from charging NMC to 100% and charging to 100% with LFP without any regard for degradation is a myth. There is an awful lot of misinformation out there when it comes to EVs. The story of NMC and LFP is that LFP requires charging to 100% about once a week to keep the BMS well calibrated. Both chemistries suffer degradation from sitting for prolonged periods at 100% SoC, particularly if the battery is hot, but LFP degrades somewhat less.

Good advice is to charge daily to what is needed plus a reasonable buffer. It is always a good idea to limit the time the battery sits at high SoC for ALL chemistries
fortunefavored
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by fortunefavored »

EricGold wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:12 am
MH2 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:01 am
Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am but it's more likely that EVs will mostly disappear. They'll never be more than a niche product.
What is your thinking behind EVs being niche products that will disappear in a decade or two?
He must be oblivious to the world and in denial of AGW. Norway is the leader, with their most recent sales month at 92% EV, about 6% PHEV/Hybrid. Other countries are catching up quickly. China is on the cusp of majority sales *EV IIRC
I suspect RoW will not apply to the US. We won't see those cheap China EVs. You can see this in the huge pickup truck CAFE loophole that heavily subsidizes US car makers. They will all go out of business tomorrow if EVs really took off. There is no will to make that happen.

Electricity prices in the largest US EV market (California) are up to 60 cents/kwh with no end in sight. New rooftop solar is almost dead. Generation cost is headed to $0/kwh (currently 8 cents during summer high generation period) and all the expenses are in transmission, so increasing "free" energy generation (solar/wind) won't help.

I am not optimistic either. The only way it is happening is with huge incentives on EVs and DISincentives on gasoline and huge ICE vehicles. Neither of which seems palatable. The US may end up like Japan and Fax Machines, out of step with the rest of the world.

I was very optimistic about the EV takeover 5 years ago, and now I'd say I am extremely pessimistic.

(I hold no interest in any of the above mentioned sectors other than index funds)
newbh933
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by newbh933 »

madbrain wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:51 am
MH2 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:30 am The 600 mile minimum limit makes this a little difficult. Imo if you’re sticking to SUVs, this is diesel or - maybe - PHEV territory.
I don't really understand the 600 mile requirement. My bladder could never last that long. And it's very hard to go 600 miles without seeing a gas station.
I used to own a 1990's Suburban with a 44 gallon tank: so ~900 mile range on a tank during long trips. It was nice being able to just fill up in the morning and not worry about filling up again until the next morning. Also allowed great flexibility to pick refueling location based on price. But that's about it in terms of advantages. I personally would never worry about range for a car as long as it was something greater than say 300 miles per tank.

And yes, it was painful at times to pay to fill that tank. :!: :annoyed
Nobody knows nothing... and I know even less!
Yarlonkol12
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by Yarlonkol12 »

Why not just buy a new 30-40k Honda and sell it for 25-35k in 3 years? Or just keep it longer
My posts are for entertainment purposes only.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

When I put Pv at home I sized it for EVs and *all* my home energy usage. For now we still have some NG combustion but that is going away soon-ish. The marginal cost per kWh generated is about 1¢. Between our Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model Y, we average over the 4 seasons about 4 miles per penny. You read that right -- 1/4 ¢ per mile

For me environmental responsibility is more important than immediate money in my pocket but the fuel costs for an ICE are a big chunk of overall costs. Depending on vehicle, state etc it costs 10¢ - 20¢ more per mile to fuel an ICE than an EV powered by home PV like mine. Over the lifetime of a vehicle that is in the range of $20k - $40k

Some people value polluting for "free" (an oxymoron if there ever was one,) but I hear and read such opinions all the time. Smart money chooses PV+EV when possible. Outside of some pockets in CA it saves you money today, and it is the most valuable inheritance ROI you can give, hands down.
Last edited by EricGold on Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
alfaspider
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by alfaspider »

fortunefavored wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:31 am
EricGold wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:12 am
MH2 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:01 am
Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am but it's more likely that EVs will mostly disappear. They'll never be more than a niche product.
What is your thinking behind EVs being niche products that will disappear in a decade or two?
He must be oblivious to the world and in denial of AGW. Norway is the leader, with their most recent sales month at 92% EV, about 6% PHEV/Hybrid. Other countries are catching up quickly. China is on the cusp of majority sales *EV IIRC
I suspect RoW will not apply to the US. We won't see those cheap China EVs. You can see this in the huge pickup truck CAFE loophole that heavily subsidizes US car makers. They will all go out of business tomorrow if EVs really took off. There is no will to make that happen.

Electricity prices in the largest US EV market (California) are up to 60 cents/kwh with no end in sight. New rooftop solar is almost dead. Generation cost is headed to $0/kwh (currently 8 cents during summer high generation period) and all the expenses are in transmission, so increasing "free" energy generation (solar/wind) won't help.

I am not optimistic either. The only way it is happening is with huge incentives on EVs and DISincentives on gasoline and huge ICE vehicles. Neither of which seems palatable. The US may end up like Japan and Fax Machines, out of step with the rest of the world.

I was very optimistic about the EV takeover 5 years ago, and now I'd say I am extremely pessimistic.

(I hold no interest in any of the above mentioned sectors other than index funds)
Average California electricity costs are around 30cents/kwh. Perhaps there are isolated cases of 60cents, but very few EV drivers are likely paying anywhere close to that to charge their cars. I'm also not sure why you think "new rooftop solar" is dead. California's net metering situation is certainly a problem, an electric vehicle + home storage can avoid having to send power to the grid. Here in Texas, I'm paying 14 cents and solar is popular even among people who are very anti-environmental regulation simply because it makes good economic sense to install it.

We may not see cheap Chinese EVs directly, but EV prices are going down and that is spurred in part by Chinese competition. The likes of BYD are creating economies of scale for parts and batteries that is driving down prices even for other manufacturers. We are probably a decade out, but there will come a point where EVs are the cheaper both to purchase and operate, and at that point no incentives will be necessary.

I also find it curious that you have become less optimistic about an EV takeover than you were 5 years ago. In 2019, EV market share was around 2%. In the last quarter of 2023, it was over 8%. We've quadrupled in that time. There was ~30% year over year increase between Q4 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024 alone.
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

EricGold wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 12:48 pm Outside of some pockets in CA it saves you money today, and it is the most valuable inheritance ROI you can give, hands down.
Unfortunately with NEM3 in CA, solar PV now has a very low ROI. The solar market has disappeared. If you are with one of the municipal utilities, NEM3 doesn't apply, and solar still makes sense.
I write this as a solar PV user with 70 panels on the roof, 23.2 kW worth. But I'm grandfathered under NEM2, not NEM3.
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:35 pm Average California electricity costs are around 30cents/kwh.
The average rate is not meaningful. Many rate schedules are tiered. Larger dwellings and EV users have higher average use and are penalized.
I haven't seen 60 cents/kWh but have definitely seen over 50 cents/kWh marginal rate with PG&E.
I'm also not sure why you think "new rooftop solar" is dead. California's net metering situation is certainly a problem, an electric vehicle + home storage can avoid having to send power to the grid. Here in Texas, I'm paying 14 cents and solar is popular even among people who are very anti-environmental regulation simply because it makes good economic sense to install it.
Batteries don't have a very long life and will need to be purchased again in 10 years, unlike solar. The long-term ROI is very dubious because of this.
New solar installations in CA have dropped by over 80% since last year due to NEM3. That is a fact. Installers are going out of business. It is a very dire situation.
If I didnt have solar grandfathered under NEM2, it would cost less per mile to use premium gas in my 2015 Volt than to charge it. And that's accounting for the high gas prices in CA.
alfaspider
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by alfaspider »

madbrain wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:22 pm
EricGold wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 12:48 pm Outside of some pockets in CA it saves you money today, and it is the most valuable inheritance ROI you can give, hands down.
Unfortunately with NEM3 in CA, solar PV now has a very low ROI. The solar market has disappeared. If you are with one of the municipal utilities, NEM3 doesn't apply, and solar still makes sense.
I write this as a solar PV user with 70 panels on the roof, 23.2 kW worth. But I'm grandfathered under NEM2, not NEM3.
I think the backlash with NEM3 has been so intense they are going to be forced to make changes.
fortunefavored
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by fortunefavored »

alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:35 pm <snip>
I also find it curious that you have become less optimistic about an EV takeover than you were 5 years ago. In 2019, EV market share was around 2%. In the last quarter of 2023, it was over 8%. We've quadrupled in that time. There was ~30% year over year increase between Q4 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024 alone.
5 years ago (again, in CA, the largest EV market and usually the leader in these things):
It appeared electricity prices would drop, not double
Solar was basically a 5 year payback and then permanently lowered your bills, often to near $0/month in the summer
I assumed electric cars would compete on purchase price with ICE cars by a significant amount (between battery tech improving & fewer bits to assemble/manufacture.)

I fully believed electric would just takeover, it would be a no brainer for anyone purchasing a new car. The market of eco-conscious wealthy people who want a 2nd or 3rd car has a limit some where.

Just last week: PG&E and CPUC just proposed an additional fixed $28 to $35/month charge to every electric bill regardless of consumption or generation, putting more nails into the rooftop solar coffin.
Josh5000
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by Josh5000 »

Angel of Empire wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:35 am I'd walk (run) away from the Tesla.

EV technology may be better in 3 years for you to shop again, but it's more likely that EVs will mostly disappear. They'll never be more than a niche product.

Congrats on the 15 year old Toyota. We'll never see the day when someone owns a 15-year old EV.
Poster is seeking to lease for 3-year so the first sentence doesn't apply. I agree with the congrats but 15 years old Toyota should be considered new. My 13 years old Honda Fit is our new car. I am also 3 years overdue for a new vehicle, according to my original new/additional car every 10 years. The assumption is that the second car would be purchased after the first car is 10 years old and that the third car would be purchased when the first car is 20 years old; therefore, the first car would be in junk yard before a fourth car purchase is needed.

Fortunately, the second car is still new and only has 200k miles and the first car is was only 280k miles at the planned purchase time for the third car so I postponed it and likely won't need it unless we have an additional driver. The saving from driving same reliable vehicle and doing maintenance at home afford me to look into possibly getting a truck camper. I can justify the purpose cost and maintenance and upkeep but the annual taxes and fees would be over $3k so I may postpone that until switch primary residence to my second house in a state without such costs.
alfaspider
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by alfaspider »

fortunefavored wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:57 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:35 pm <snip>
I also find it curious that you have become less optimistic about an EV takeover than you were 5 years ago. In 2019, EV market share was around 2%. In the last quarter of 2023, it was over 8%. We've quadrupled in that time. There was ~30% year over year increase between Q4 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024 alone.
5 years ago (again, in CA, the largest EV market and usually the leader in these things):
It appeared electricity prices would drop, not double
Solar was basically a 5 year payback and then permanently lowered your bills, often to near $0/month in the summer
I assumed electric cars would compete on purchase price with ICE cars by a significant amount (between battery tech improving & fewer bits to assemble/manufacture.)

I fully believed electric would just takeover, it would be a no brainer for anyone purchasing a new car. The market of eco-conscious wealthy people who want a 2nd or 3rd car has a limit some where.

Just last week: PG&E and CPUC just proposed an additional fixed $28 to $35/month charge to every electric bill regardless of consumption or generation, putting more nails into the rooftop solar coffin.
I think you are a bit overly-concerned with the California market. It's a big market, but it's under 15% of the total population. California has had electricity issues for 25+ years that have nothing to do with electric cars.
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anagram
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by anagram »

fortunefavored wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:57 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:35 pm <snip>
I also find it curious that you have become less optimistic about an EV takeover than you were 5 years ago. In 2019, EV market share was around 2%. In the last quarter of 2023, it was over 8%. We've quadrupled in that time. There was ~30% year over year increase between Q4 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024 alone.
5 years ago (again, in CA, the largest EV market and usually the leader in these things):
It appeared electricity prices would drop, not double
Solar was basically a 5 year payback and then permanently lowered your bills, often to near $0/month in the summer
I assumed electric cars would compete on purchase price with ICE cars by a significant amount (between battery tech improving & fewer bits to assemble/manufacture.)

I fully believed electric would just takeover, it would be a no brainer for anyone purchasing a new car. The market of eco-conscious wealthy people who want a 2nd or 3rd car has a limit some where.

Just last week: PG&E and CPUC just proposed an additional fixed $28 to $35/month charge to every electric bill regardless of consumption or generation, putting more nails into the rooftop solar coffin.
I don't understand this situation. By 2035 Newsom has said that only zero emission vehicles can be sold and yet electricity prices have doubled in the past 5 years.

Who can afford this? How can one prepare for this? It is only 10 years away.
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anagram
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by anagram »

alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:24 pm
fortunefavored wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:57 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:35 pm <snip>
I also find it curious that you have become less optimistic about an EV takeover than you were 5 years ago. In 2019, EV market share was around 2%. In the last quarter of 2023, it was over 8%. We've quadrupled in that time. There was ~30% year over year increase between Q4 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024 alone.
5 years ago (again, in CA, the largest EV market and usually the leader in these things):
It appeared electricity prices would drop, not double
Solar was basically a 5 year payback and then permanently lowered your bills, often to near $0/month in the summer
I assumed electric cars would compete on purchase price with ICE cars by a significant amount (between battery tech improving & fewer bits to assemble/manufacture.)

I fully believed electric would just takeover, it would be a no brainer for anyone purchasing a new car. The market of eco-conscious wealthy people who want a 2nd or 3rd car has a limit some where.

Just last week: PG&E and CPUC just proposed an additional fixed $28 to $35/month charge to every electric bill regardless of consumption or generation, putting more nails into the rooftop solar coffin.
I think you are a bit overly-concerned with the California market. It's a big market, but it's under 15% of the total population. California has had electricity issues for 25+ years that have nothing to do with electric cars.
Correct but what do you do when you can't afford to pay the PG&E bill?
alfaspider
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by alfaspider »

anagram wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:27 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:24 pm
fortunefavored wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:57 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:35 pm <snip>
I also find it curious that you have become less optimistic about an EV takeover than you were 5 years ago. In 2019, EV market share was around 2%. In the last quarter of 2023, it was over 8%. We've quadrupled in that time. There was ~30% year over year increase between Q4 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024 alone.
5 years ago (again, in CA, the largest EV market and usually the leader in these things):
It appeared electricity prices would drop, not double
Solar was basically a 5 year payback and then permanently lowered your bills, often to near $0/month in the summer
I assumed electric cars would compete on purchase price with ICE cars by a significant amount (between battery tech improving & fewer bits to assemble/manufacture.)

I fully believed electric would just takeover, it would be a no brainer for anyone purchasing a new car. The market of eco-conscious wealthy people who want a 2nd or 3rd car has a limit some where.

Just last week: PG&E and CPUC just proposed an additional fixed $28 to $35/month charge to every electric bill regardless of consumption or generation, putting more nails into the rooftop solar coffin.
I think you are a bit overly-concerned with the California market. It's a big market, but it's under 15% of the total population. California has had electricity issues for 25+ years that have nothing to do with electric cars.
Correct but what do you do when you can't afford to pay the PG&E bill?
I'm not sure why this is being made in response to my post about not focusing on the California market. I don't have a PG&E bill because I don't live in California :beer

But if there is mass inability to afford the PG&E bill, something will have to change. I might say the same thing about California gas. What happens if the fossil fuel regulations mean that no refinery is willing to produce California blend gasoline anymore? Long story short, at some point the regulatory environment must bend to reality and that has nothing to do with whether OP should lease a Tesla Model 3. That situation should be informed by their specific electric bill and driving habits.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

madbrain wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:30 pm Batteries don't have a very long life and will need to be purchased again in 10 years
Hmmm. What is the basis for this statement ?
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

EricGold wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:58 pm
madbrain wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:30 pm Batteries don't have a very long life and will need to be purchased again in 10 years
Hmmm. What is the basis for this statement ?
Many online sources cite the expected lifespan of batteries from 5 to 15 years depending on chemistry.
This is just one link that makes this claim.
https://www.paradisesolarenergy.com/blo ... eries-last
So do many others. A Google search for "expected life of home batteries" will reveal many more.

I don't think anyone warranties home batteries beyond 10 years, which is informative.
Solar panels and inverters are often warrantied for much longer. 25 years is typical.
Saintor
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by Saintor »

At up to 60-65K, I would consider a Mazda CX-90 PHEV, or its shorter variant to be introduced, the CX-70.
vfinx
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by vfinx »

I wish Tesla would allow lease buyouts. This would have been a much more appealing offer without that forced money factor.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

madbrain wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:34 pm I don't think anyone warranties home batteries beyond 10 years, which is informative.
About as informative as not finding new car warranties past 10 years

Thanks for the links, but I was hoping for data, not opinion.
Here is what I do know:

Home battery storage nowadays is LFP;
The good ones have ventilation cooling;
Nothing forces an owner to place the battery in maximum direct sunlight
These batteries are never subjected to the C-rates of car batteries
"EOL" in the industry is either 70% or 80% of new capacity, but the batteries continue to function way beyond that threshold.
Nothing forces an owner to stress the battery between 0 - 100 SoC

If you had ventured a guess that maximum abuse of a battery with no temperature control would likely lead to replacement in 10 years, I would agree with you
madbrain
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by madbrain »

EricGold wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 8:19 pm Nothing forces an owner to place the battery in maximum direct sunlight
Well, in some cases there may be no other suitable location for it ;)
These batteries are never subjected to the C-rates of car batteries
True.
"EOL" in the industry is either 70% or 80% of new capacity, but the batteries continue to function way beyond that threshold.
Nothing forces an owner to stress the battery between 0 - 100 SoC
Thanks. I wasn't aware of that. That changes the equation on battery purchase a little bit. I still won't install one until my NEM2 rate expires in 6 years. Hopefully, prices will have dropped by then. Most home batteries are in the $1000 - $2000 per kWh range currently. My average daily use is close to 70 kWh. A battery that size would be $70,000. When a Chevy Bolt with a 65 kWh battery sells for $26,500 MSRP, that pricing doesn't make a lot of sense. Especially since a $7,500 federal tax credit applies to the car. It's hard to find the basic Bolt for sale, though. I wonder if someone could remove the battery packs and make it into a home battery.
EricGold
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Re: Tesla Lease

Post by EricGold »

madbrain wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 8:35 pm Most home batteries are in the $1000 - $2000 per kWh range currently.
I just had a look at the Tesla Powerwall. With gateway and inverter included, it is $9,300 before tax credits for 13.5 kWh. That works out after federal tax credit to
$467 per kWh, gateway and inverter included

Regarding location, they can go anywhere but it would be a good idea to shade one in full max sunlight
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